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The first symposium on ``The Ocean in a High-CO2 World'' in 2004 proved to be a landmark event in our understanding of the seriousness of ocean acidification, as reported in Oceanography (Cicerone et al., 2004). The scientific community reunited in 2008 for a second symposium on ``The Ocean in a High-CO2 World.'' During the four years between the two symposia, more scientific papers were published on the topic of ocean acidification than during the preceding 55 years. Ocean acidification is now widely cited in the press and is familiar to many nonscientists. Participants at the 2008 symposium identified new research priorities and stressed the importance of improving international coordination to facilitate agreements on protocols, methods, and data reporting in order to optimize limited resources by greater sharing of materials, facilities, expertise, and data. Despite major uncertainties, the research community must find ways to scale up understanding of individual organisms' responses to provide meaningful predictions of ocean acidification's effects on food webs, fisheries, marine ecosystems, coastal erosion, and tourism. Easy-to-understand information, such as simple indicators of change and of thresholds beyond which marine ecosystems will not recover, is also needed for management and policymaking.

Monitoring and predicting the biogeochemical state of the ocean and marine ecosystems is an important application of operational oceanography that needs to be expanded. The accurate depiction of the ocean’s physical environment enabled by Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) systems, in both real-time and reanalysis modes, is already valuable for various applications, such as the fishing industry and fisheries management. However, most of these applications require accurate estimates of both physical and biogeochemical ocean conditions over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, we discuss recent developments that enable the coupling new biogeochemical models and assimilation components with the existing GODAE systems, and we examine the potential of such systems in several areas of interest: phytoplankton biomass monitoring in open oceans, ocean carbon cycle monitoring and assessment, marine ecosystem management at seasonal and longer time scales, and downscaling in coastal areas. A number of key requirements and research priorities are then identified for the future. The GODAE systems will need to improve their representation of physical variables that currently are not yet considered essential, such as upper-ocean vertical fluxes that are critically important to biological activity. Further, the observing systems will need to be expanded in terms of in situ platforms (with intensified deployments of sensors for O2 and chlorophyll, and inclusion of new sensors for nutrients, zooplankton, micronekton biomass, and others), satellite missions (e.g., hyperspectral instruments for ocean color, light detection and ranging (LIDAR) systems for mixed-layer depths, wide-swath altimeters for coastal sea levels), and improved methods to assimilate these new measurements.

A Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamic Model (SEAPODYM) is used in a data assimilation study aiming to estimate model parameters that describe dynamics of Pacific skipjack tuna population on ocean-based scale. The model based on advection–diffusion–reaction equations explicitly predicts spatial dynamics of large pelagic predators, while taking into account data on several mid-trophic level components, oceanic primary productivity and physical environment. In order to improve its quantitative ability, the model was parameterized through assimilation with commercial fisheries data, and optimization was carried out using maximum likelihood estimation approach. To address the optimization task we implemented an adjoint technique to obtain an exact, analytical evaluation of the likelihood gradient. We conducted a series of computer experiments in order to (i) determine model sensitivity with respect to variable parameters and, hence, investigate their observability; (ii) estimate observable parameters and their errors; and (iii) justify the reliability of the computed solution. Parameters describing recruitment, movement, habitat preferences, natural and fishing mortality of skipjack population were analysed and estimated. Results of the study suggest that SEAPODYM with achieved parameterization scheme can help to investigate the impact of fishing under various management scenarios, and also conduct forecasts of a given species stock and spatial dynamics in a context of environmental and climate changes.

International audience; We review present understanding of the spatial and temporal diet variability (trophodynamics) of a range of pelagic marine top predators, at both early and adult life history stages. We begin with a review of methodologies used to advance our understanding of the trophodynamics of marine top predators, particularly in relation to climate change. We then explore how these developments are informing our understanding of the major trophic groups in food webs leading to, and including, marine top predators. We examine through specific examples how the impacts of ocean warming may affect pelagic food web relationships from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. We examine the potential, in the absence of long-term data sets, of using large-scale spatial studies to examine how potential changes in biological oceanography could impact the biomass and composition of prey species, particularly the role of phytoplankton size spectra. We focus on examples from regions where biotic change with respect to climate change is likely. In particular, we detail the effects of climate change on oceanographic and bathymetric "hotspots" and provide the example involving seabirds in the Benguela Current system. We end by urging the development of international collaborations and databases to facilitate comprehensive ocean-scale understanding of climate impacts on marine top predators.

International audience; Tuna catches represent a major economic and food source in the Pacific Ocean, yet are highly variable. This variability in tuna catches remains poorly explained. The relationships between the distributions of tuna and their forage (micronekton) have been mostly derived from model estimates. Observations of micronekton and other mid-trophic level organisms, and their link to regional oceanography, however are scarce and constitute an important gap in our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics of pelagic ecosystems. To fill this gap, we conducted two multidisciplinary cruises (Nectalis1 and Nectalis2) in the New Caledonian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) at the southeastern edge the Coral Sea, in 2011 to characterize the oceanography of the region during the cool (August) and the hot (December) seasons. The physical and biological environments were described by hydrology, nutrients and phytoplankton size structure and biomass. Zooplankton biomass was estimated from net sampling and acoustics and micronecton was estimated from net sampling, the SEAPODYM ecosystem model, a dedicated echosounder and non-dedicated acoustics. Results demonstrated that New Caledonia is located in an oligotrophic area characterized by low nutrient and low primary production which is dominated by a high percentage of picoplankton cyanobacteria Prochlorococcus (>90%). The area is characterized by a large-scale north-south temperature and salinity gradient. The northern area is influenced by the equatorial Warm Pool and the South Pacific Convergence Zone and is characterized by higher temperature, lower salinity, lower primary production and micronekton biomass. The southern area is influenced by the Tasman Sea and is characterized by cooler temperature, higher salinity, higher primary production and micronekton biomass. Interactions between the dynamic oceanography and the complex topography creates a myriad of mesoscale eddies, inducing patchy structures in the frontal area. During the cool season, a tight coupling existed between the ocean dynamics and primary production, while there was a stronger decoupling during the hot season. There was little difference in the composition of mid-trophic level organisms (zooplankton and micronekton) between the two seasons. This may be due to different turn-over times and delays in the transmission of primary production to upper trophic levels. Examination of various sampling gears for zooplankton and micronekton showed that net biomass estimates and acoustic-derived estimates compared reasonably well. Estimates of micronekton from net observations and the SEAPODYM model were in the same range. The non-dedicated acoustics adequately reproduced trends observed in zooplankton from nets, but the acoustics could not differentiate between zooplankton and micronekton and absolute biomasses could not be calculated. Understanding the impact of mesoscale features on higher trophic levels will require further investigation and patchiness induced by eddies raises the question of how to best sample highly dynamic areas via sea experiments.

In the pelagic foodweb, micronekton at the mid-trophic level (MTL) are one of the lesser known components of the ocean ecosystem despite being a major driver of the spatial dynamics of their predators, of which many are exploited species (e.g. tunas). The Spatial Ecosystem and Population Dynamics Model is one modelling approach that includes a representation of the spatial dynamics of several epi- and mesopelagic MTL functional groups. The dynamics of these groups are driven by physical (temperature and currents) and biogeochemical (primary production, euphotic depth) variables. A key issue to address is the parameterization of the energy transfer from the primary production to these functional groups. We present a method using in situ acoustic data to estimate the parameters with a maximum likelihood estimation approach. A series of twin experiments conducted to test the behaviour of the model suggested that in the ideal case, that is, with an environmental forcing perfectly simulated and biomass estimates directly correlated with the acoustic signal, a minimum of 200 observations over several time steps at the resolution of the model is needed to estimate the parameter values with a minimum error. A transect of acoustic backscatter at 38 kHz collected during scientific cruises north of Hawaii allowed a first illustration of the approach with actual data. A discussion followed regarding the various sources of uncertainties associated with the use of acoustic data in micronekton biomass.

In the last five decades for which tuna fishing data are available, the interannual ENSO signal (SOI) and the related Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) suggest two different regimes characterized by higher intensity and frequency of either El Nino or La Nina events. Recent estimates from a statistical population dynamics model (MULTIFAN-CL) suggest that recruitment of three tuna species in the Pacific are correlated with these climate indices. While tropical tuna species like skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) and yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) had higher recruitments during El Nino events, the subtropical albacore species (Thunnus alalunga) showed the opposite pattern with low recruitment during El Nino and high recruitment during La Nina. The potential explanatory mechanisms for such relationships between recruitment and climate are investigated with a spatial environmental population model (SEPODYM). The model is a two-dimensional coupled physical–biological interaction model at the ocean basin scale, and contains environmental and spatial components used to constrain the movement and the recruitment of tuna. Input datasets for the model are sea surface temperature, oceanic currents and new primary production that are simulated fields from a three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model. The hypothesis that the spatial dynamics of temperature, currents (advection), food availability and predation constrain tuna recruitment is evaluated with an application of SEPODYM to skipjack. Simulation results showed that this hypothesis can reproduce fluctuations in the population that are similar to those estimated from the statistical model.

Recent studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans because of changes in oceanic circulation under global warming conditions caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. This might affect the productivity of medium and higher trophic levels with potential consequences on marine resources such as tropical tuna. Here we combine the projections of up-to-date climate and ocean biogeochemical models with recent concepts of representation of fish habitat based on prey abundance and ambient temperature to gain some insight into the impact of climate change on skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis), the species that dominates present-day tuna catch. For a world with doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration, our results suggest significant large-scale changes of skipjack habitat in the equatorial Pacific. East of the date line, conditions could be improved by an extension of the present favourable habitat zones of the western equatorial Pacific, a feature reminiscent of warming conditions associated with El Nino events. Despite its simplicity and the associated underlying hypothesis, this first simulation is used to stress future research directions and key issues for modelling developments associated to global change.

International audience; It has long been recognised that there are strong interactions and feedbacks between climate, upper ocean biogeochemistry and marine food webs, and also that food web structure and phytoplankton community distribution are important determinants of variability in carbon production and export from the euphotic zone. Numerical models provide a vital tool to explore these interactions, given their capability to investigate multiple connected components of the system and the sensitivity to multiple drivers, including potential future conditions. A major driver for ecosystem model development is the demand for quantitative tools to support ecosystem-based management initiatives. The purpose of this paper is to review approaches to the modelling of marine ecosystems with a focus on the North Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent shelf seas, and to highlight the challenges they face and suggest ways forward. We consider the state of the art in simulating oceans and shelf sea physics, planktonic and higher trophic level ecosystems, and look towards building an integrative approach with these existing tools. We note how the different approaches have evolved historically and that many of the previous obstacles to harmonisation may no longer be present. We illustrate this with examples from the on-going and planned modelling effort in the Integrative Modelling Work Package of the EURO-BASIN programme.

The Spatial Ecosystem And Populations Dynamics Model “SEAPODYM”, based on a system of Eulerian equations and initially developed for large pelagic fish (e.g., tuna), was modified to describe spawning habitat and eggs and larvae dynamics of small pelagic fish. The spawning habitat is critical since it controls the initial recruitment of larvae and the subsequent spatio-temporal variability of natural mortality during their drift with currents. A robust statistical approach based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation is presented to optimize the model parameters defining the spawning habitat and the eggs and larvae dynamics. To improve parameterization, eggs and larvae density observations are assimilated in the model. The model and its associated optimization approach allow investigating the significance of the mechanisms proposed to control fish spawning habitat and larval recruitment: temperature, prey abundance, trade-off between prey and predators, and retention and dispersion processes. An application to the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) illustrates the ability of the model to simulate the main features of spatial dynamics of these two species in the Humboldt Current System. For both species, in climatological conditions, the main observed spatial patterns are well reproduced and are explained by the impact of prey and predator abundance and by physical retention with currents, while temperature has a lower impact. In agreement with observations, sardine larvae are mainly predicted in the northern part of the Peruvian shelf (5–10°S), while anchovy larvae extend further south. Deoxygenation, which can potentially limit the accessibility of adult fish to spawning areas, does not appear to have an impact in our model setting. Conversely, the observed seasonality in spawning activity, especially the spawning rest period in austral autumn, is not well simulated. It is proposed that this seasonal cycle is more likely driven by the spatio-temporal dynamics of adult fish constituting the spawning biomass and not yet included in the model.

International audience; Oligotrophic regions are expected to host low densities of top predators. Nevertheless, top predators with contrasting energetic costs might respond differently to the productivity of their habitats. Predators with high energetic demands might be constrained to select the most productive habitats to meet their high energetic requirements, whereas less active predators would be able to satisfy their needs by exploiting either high or low productivity habitats. Although situated in the core of the South Pacific oligotrophic gyre, French Polynesia is characterized by a fairly marked productivity gradient from the extremely oligotrophic Australs area to the more productive Marquesas area. The aim of this study was to investigate cetacean and seabird habitats in French Polynesia in light of their general energetic constraints. We collected cetacean and seabird sightings from an aerial survey across French Polynesian waters during the austral summer 2011. We classified cetaceans and seabirds into energetic guilds according to the literature. For each guild, we built generalized additive models along with static covariates and oceanographic covariates at the seasonal and climatological resolutions. We provided regional habitat predictions for Delphininae, Globicephalinae, sperm and beaked whales, tropicbirds, grey terns, noddies, white terns, boobies, petrels and shearwaters, sooty terns and frigatebirds. Explained deviances ranged from 5% to 30% for cetaceans and from 14% to 29% for seabirds. Cetaceans clearly responded to the productivity gradient, with the highest predicted densities around the productive waters of the Marquesas. However, Delphininae and Globicephalinae, characterized by higher energetic demands, depended more strongly on productivity, showing a ratio of 1-26 and 1-31 between their lowest and highest density areas respectively, compared to the less active sperm and beaked whales (showing only a ratio of 1-3.5 in predicted densities). In contrast, seabird distributions appeared more governed by the availability of nesting and roosting sites than by energetic constraints.

A feature of the central equatorial Pacific is a strong divergent equatorial upwelling called the cold tongue, which is favorable to the development of a large zonal band with high levels of primary production. Contiguous to the cold tongue, is the western Pacific warm pool, which is characterized by warmer water with lower levels of primary production. At the top of the food web, the tropical tunas are a major component of the pelagic ecosystem and have their maximum biomass in the warm pool. However, during ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events, variability is observed in both environmental factors and the spatial distribution of tuna. A Spatial Environmental Population Dynamics Model (SEPODYM) is used to assist in the analysis and interpretation of these fishery oceanographic observations. A modelling approach is described and applied to the population and fisheries of skipjack tuna, one of the top predator species with its greatest biomass in the tropical pelagic ecosystem. Environmental variables are used in the model for delineating the spawning area of skipjack, reproducing the transport of its larvae and juveniles, and simulating tuna forage. The forage production is deduced from a simple ecological transfer based on new primary production with biomass calculated as a single population. The model considers an interaction between predicted tuna density and forage density. A habitat index combining temperature preferences with forage distribution is used to constrain the movement of adult tuna. Results of the simulation allow realistic prediction of the large-scale distribution of the species. There is a remarkable out-of-phase pattern linked to ENSO between the western Pacific region and the cold tongue. This pattern is consistent with the observed movements of skipjack.

We are developing a spatial, multigear, multispecies population dynamics simulation model for tropical tunas in the Pacific Ocean. The model is age-structured to account for growth and gear selectivity. It includes a tuna movement model based on a diffusion–advection equation in which the advective term is proportional to the gradient of a habitat index. The monthly geographical distribution of recruitment is defined by assuming that spawning occurs in areas where sea surface temperature is above 25°C. During the first 3 months of their life, simulated tunas are transported by oceanic currents, after which movement is conditioned by gradients in the habitat index. Independent estimates of natural mortality rates and population size from large-scale tagging experiments carried out by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community are used in the simulations. The habitat index consists of components due to forage density and sea surface temperature, both of which are suspected to play major roles in determining tuna distribution. Because direct observations of forage are not available on a basin scale, we developed a submodel to simulate the surface tuna forage production (Lehodey et al., 1998). At present, only skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis; a surface tuna species caught by purse seine and by pole-and-line) is considered, at a 1°-square resolution and on a monthly climatological time series. Despite the simplicity of the model and the limitations of the data used, the simulation model is able to predict a distribution of skipjack catch rates, of the different fleets involved in the fishery, that is fairly consistent with observations.

Nearly 70% of the world's annual tuna harvest, currently 3.2 million tonnes, comes from the Pacific Ocean. Skipjack tuna ( Katsuwonus pelamis ) dominate the catch. Although skipjack are distributed in the surface mixed layer throughout the equatorial and subtropical Pacific, catches are highest in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool, a region characterized by low primary productivity rates1 that has the warmest surface waters of the world's oceans (Fig. 1). Assessments of tuna stocks indicate that recent western Pacific skipjack catches approaching one million tonnes annually are sustainable2. The warm pool, which is fundamental to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Earth's climate in general3,4,5, must therefore also provide a habitat capable of supporting this highly productive tuna population. Here we show that apparent spatial shifts in the skipjack population are linked to large zonal displacements of the warm pool that occur during ENSO events5,6. This relationship can be used to predict (several months in advance) the region of highest skipjack abundance, within a fishing ground extending over 6,000 km along the Equator.

The reproductive biology of the alfonsino Beryx splendens was studied by histological examinations, gonadosomatic index and macroscopic scales of maturation of a large sample of gonads. Alfonsino is a gonochoric species. The size-frequency distribution of the sex ratio was bimodal and considered to be due to size dimorphism. In New Caledonia, the breeding period of this species occurs during the southern summer, with a peak in December to January. The spawning stage is attained at a minimum fork length of 28 cm for females and 33 cm for males. The size at which 50% of the population attain sexual maturity (FL50) is 33.2 cm for females and 34.5 cm for males. Maximum potential fecundity is estimated to lie between 270 000 to 675 000 eggs for fish between 34 and 40 cm in fork length. It was possible to differentiate vegetative zones, in which juvenile alfonsino grow until they reach maturity, from reproductive zones (fishing grounds) which are inhabited by mature individuals. The larvae and juveniles could be carried from the reproductive zone to the vegetative zone by currents in an oceanic eddy system.

Habitat preferences for juvenile loggerhead turtles in the North Pacific were investigated with data from two several-year long tagging programs, using 224 satellite transmitters deployed on wild and captive-reared turtles. Animals ranged between 23 and 81 cm in straight carapace length. Tracks were used to investigate changes in temperature preferences and speed of the animals with size. Average sea surface temperatures along the tracks ranged from 18 to 23 °C. Bigger turtles generally experienced larger temperature ranges and were encountered in warmer surface waters. Seasonal differences between small and big turtles suggest that the larger ones dive deeper than the mixed layer and subsequently target warmer surface waters to rewarm. Average swimming speeds were under 1 km/h and increased with size for turtles bigger than 30 cm. However, when expressed in body lengths per second (bl s(-1)), smaller turtles showed much higher swimming speeds (>1 bl s (-1) ) than bigger ones (0.5 bl s(-1)). Temperature and speed values at size estimated from the tracks were used to parameterize a habitat-based Eulerian model to predict areas of highest probability of presence in the North Pacific. The model-generated habitat index generally matched the tracks closely, capturing the north-south movements of tracked animals, but the model failed to replicate observed east-west movements, suggesting temperature and foraging preferences are not the only factors driving large-scale loggerhead movements. Model outputs could inform potential bycatch reduction strategies.

The News Focus story "Giant marine reserves pose vast challenges" (C. Pala, 8 February, p. [640][1]) discusses the potential role of large marine reserves in conserving pelagic species. We highlight three points that are misrepresented in the article. First, the story describes tropical tuna stocks

Age and growth of the alfonsino Beryx splendens from New Caledonia seamounts were determined by examination of whole and sectioned otoliths. One growth-ring (annulus) in the otoliths appears to be laid down each year. It consists of one opaque (summer, fast-growing) zone and one hyaline (winter, slowgrowing) zone. Thin-sections of otoliths revealed daily rings which allowed us to estimate that the formation of the nucleus takes ∼10 mo. The first annulus following the nucleus is incomplete. Females have a higher growth rate than males. Sexual maturity is reached at the age of 7 to 8 yr for males and 6 yr for females. Maximum age attained would be ∼20 yr for alfonsino >50 cm in fork length. the results are compared with those from the few other studies on the growth of alfonsino.

This paper deals with the influence of temperature on the growth of alfonsino, Beryx splendens , caught in New Caledonia at 23–25°S and 165–171°E. The mean temperature of the 0–500 m water layer was cross-correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index after the seasonal cycles were removed. It is shown that the interannual fluctuations of temperature are influenced by ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillations) events with a time-lag of several months. The growth study is based on the reading of annuli on sagittal otoliths. In order to show fluctuations in otolith growth, an index of increase variation I va was defined. Superposition of the I va series on temperature series suggests the growth of alfonsino to be strongly related to temperature fluctuations in intermediate-depth water masses and consequently by ENSO events which appear further north at low latitudes in the equatorial Pacific. “El Nino” events would increase growth rate whilst “La Nina” events would reduce it.

Over 50% of the total bigeye tuna (BET) landed in the Western Central Pacific Ocean is caught incidentally in the purse seine fishery and sold for canning at prices less than US$2/kg. The remainder is landed in longline fisheries directed at BET and sold as fresh or frozen tuna at prices greater than US$10/kg. The combined fishing mortality by all gears will soon reduce the BET biomass in the Pacific Ocean to less than that capable of producing maximum sustainable yield. Closure of the high-seas enclaves in 2009 was hailed as a conservation measure, but was not scientifically evaluated before implementation and appears to have had no beneficial effect on the BET stock. A spatially explicit age-structured ecosystem model, SEAPODYM, is used to simulate alternative area-based fishery management policies to conserve bigeye tuna in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. Closing the high-seas enclaves to purse seine fishing has negligible effect on the BET biomass. Fishery management policies that control mortality on both juveniles and adults, through prohibition of fish aggregation devices in the purse seine fishery and restrictions on longline fishing in spawning areas, are the most efficient conservation policies. Large-scale benefits from bigeye conservation measures will become apparent only in the 2030s, assuming timely implementation and minimal effects of climate change.

Simon J. Nicol ... et al. -- 15 páginas, 5 figuras, Climate change presents an emerging challenge to the sustainable management of tuna fisheries, and robust information is essential to ensure future sustainability. Climate and harvest affect tuna stocks, populations of non-target, dependent species and the ecosystem. To provide relevant advice we need an improved understanding of oceanic ecosystems and better data to parameterise the models that forecast the impacts of climate change. Currently ocean-wide data collection in the Pacific Ocean is primarily restricted to oceanographic data. However, the fisheries observer programs that operate in the region offer an opportunity to collect the additional information on the mid and upper trophic levels of the ecosystem that is necessary to complement this physical data, including time-series of distribution, abundance, size, composition and biological information on target and non-target species and mid trophic level organisms. These observer programs are in their infancy, with limited temporal and spatial distribution but recent international and national policy decisions have been made to expand their coverage. We identify a number of actions to initiate this monitoring including: consolidating collaborations to ensure the use of best quality data; developing consistency between sub-regional observer programmes to ensure that they meet the objectives of ecosystem monitoring; interrogating of existing time series to determine the most appropriate spatial template for monitoring; and exploring existing ecosystem models to identify suitable indicators of ecosystem status and change. The information obtained should improve capacity to develop fisheries management policies that are resilient and can be adapted to climate change, Financial support was provided by the Global Environment Facility Pacific Islands Oceanic Fisheries Management project, the 9th European Union Development Fund (SCIFISH project), the 10th European Union Development Fund (SCICOFISH project), Australian Government Overseas Aid Program (AusAID) and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). We would like to thank the following persons for the provision of data and information on observer programmes: Nick Vogel, Stephen Brouwer, Karl Staisch, Tim Park, Stuart Arceneaux, Lesley Jantz, Eric Forney, John D. Kelly and Kevin Busscher

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2 � 2 geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical– biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical–biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry – climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL–CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO2, from historical records over 1860–2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for bigeye tuna spawning. The adult feeding habitat also improved in the ETP due to the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the sub-surface allowing adults to access deeper forage. Conversely, in the Western Central Pacific the temperature becomes too warm for bigeye tuna spawning. The decrease in spawning is compensated by an increase of larvae biomass in subtropical regions. However, natural mortality of older stages increased due to lower habitat values (too warm surface temperatures, decreasing oxygen concentration in the sub-surface and less food). This increased mortality and the displacement of surviving fish to the eastern region led to stable then declining adult biomass at the end of the century.

Despite their huge biomass and pivotal role, the midtrophic levels of marine ecosystems are not generally subject to systematic monitoring. Data from such monitoring is crucial for parameterizing, validating, and constraining numerical models of mid-trophic communities. In recent years, acoustic sampling technology has matured, and we argue that acoustic sampling technology, due to long-range propagation in water, is the only means to efficiently observe the large biomass of the mid-trophic levels at ecologically important temporal and spatial scales. We argue that it is timely to propose a collaborative effort to utilize these new techniques, and we propose to widely deploy automated acoustic recorders, using a variety of platforms, to achieve this goal. Without such large-scale coordinated monitoring, we will continue to lack an understanding of how the effects of climate variability are mediated from primary production up to the higher trophic levels and, conversely, how changes in higher trophic levels may affect the lower trophic levels. The objective of the MAAS (Mid-Tropic Automatic Acoustic Sampler) project is, therefore, to provide nearreal-time global-scale monitoring of mid-trophic-level organisms.

This chapter presents a brief description of the climate oscillations in the Pacific Ocean and their biological consequences. It then provides another illustration of the connection between climate and fisheries using the example of tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. A modeling approach is also presented and used to explore the underlying mechanisms linking changes in climate and tuna populations.

Skipjack tuna (#Katsuwonus pelamis$) contributes approximately to 70% of the total tuna catch in the Pacific Ocean. This species occurs in the upper mixed-layer throughout the equatorial region, but the largest catches are taken from the warmpool in the Western equatorial Pacific. Analysis of catch and effort data for US purse seine fisheries in the Western Pacific has demonstrated that one of the most successful fishing grounds is located in the vicinity of a convergence zone between the warm (greater than 28-29° C) low-salinity water of the warmpool and the cold saline water of equatorial upwelling in the central Pacific (Lehodey et al, 1997). This zone of convergence, identified by a well-marked salinity front and approximated by the 28.5° C isotherm, oscillates zonally over several thousands of km in correlation with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The present study focuses on the prediction of skipjack tuna forage that is expected to be a major factor in explaining the basin-scale distribution of the stock. It could also explain the close relation between displacements of skipjack tuna and the convergence zone on the eastern edge of the warmpool. A simple bio-geochemical model was coupled with a general circulation model, allowing reasonable predictions of new primary production in the equatorial Pacific from mid-1992 to mid-1995. The biological transfer of this production toward tuna forage was simply parameterized according to the food chain length and redistributed by the currents using the circulation model. Tuna forage accumulated in the convergence zone of the horizontal currents, which corresponds to the warmpool/equatorial upwelling boundary. Predicted forage maxima corresponded well with high catch rates. (Résumé d'auteur)

A bottom longline fishery operated in the EEZ of New Caledonia from 1988 to 1991. Fishing focused on five seamounts with summits at depths ranging from 500 to 750 m. The target species was alfonsino, Beryx splendens. As the soundings available from marine charts were not detailed enough, the fishing masters had to make their own charts in order to set the gear in the right location. A series of 11 scientific cruises devoted to a research program on alfonsino was launched in late 1991. During the first scientific cruises, several days were spent mapping the seabed to improve the existing knowledge of the topography of three seamounts by coupling the EDO echosounder depth measurements to the GPS positions. As this procedure is slow, it is applicable to limited areas or, if a wider grid is used, to large zones to locate major structures such as ridges and seamounts. The emergence of the multibeam echosounder has greatly improved seabed mapping performance. This tool seems to fit the requirement of exploratory deep-bottom fishing particularly well, as it covers large areas while providing details of the bottom. The EM 12 was used to obtain bathymetry and imagery of the SE portion of the EEZ of New Caledonia, covering an approximate area of 70,000 km2 in two weeks. For depths ranging from 500 to 4,500 m, the results were impressive. They confirmed the known major features and provided greater topographical detail, revealing fine unknown structures. They also provided information on the type of substratum, information which might influence the fishing strategy. Finally, they made it possible to obtain an accurate estimate of the exploitable area which in turn led to new stock estimates.

Echo sounders are a widely used tool for observing marine ecosystems. Traditionally, rigid designed surveys are used to integrate biomass to a global estimate, which is coupled to traditional stock assessment models. More recently, the focus has shifted from single species assessment to an ecosystem approach, taking into account ecosystem function and dynamics. As a response, several ecosystem models have been developed. The data requirements for these models are different than for the traditional models, and new sensors and platforms have been developed as a response to this need. However, examples on how to integrate these observations with these new models are scarce. We propose a state‐space observation‐space approach, and compare the results from a vertically structured eco‐system model with observations from an echo sounder positioned at the Mid Atlantic ridge. We argue that this approach is less vulnerable to assumptions in the data analysis process, and discuss adequate observations regimes for th...