The pelagic ecosystem of the tropical Pacific Ocean: dynamic spatial modelling and biological consequences of ENSO

A feature of the central equatorial Pacific is a strong divergent equatorial upwelling called the cold tongue, which is favorable to the development of a large zonal band with high levels of primary production. Contiguous to the cold tongue, is the western Pacific warm pool, which is characterized by warmer water with lower levels of primary production. At the top of the food web, the tropical tunas are a major component of the pelagic ecosystem and have their maximum biomass in the warm pool. However, during ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events, variability is observed in both environmental factors and the spatial distribution of tuna. A Spatial Environmental Population Dynamics Model (SEPODYM) is used to assist in the analysis and interpretation of these fishery oceanographic observations. A modelling approach is described and applied to the population and fisheries of skipjack tuna, one of the top predator species with its greatest biomass in the tropical pelagic ecosystem. Environmental variables are used in the model for delineating the spawning area of skipjack, reproducing the transport of its larvae and juveniles, and simulating tuna forage. The forage production is deduced from a simple ecological transfer based on new primary production with biomass calculated as a single population. The model considers an interaction between predicted tuna density and forage density. A habitat index combining temperature preferences with forage distribution is used to constrain the movement of adult tuna. Results of the simulation allow realistic prediction of the large-scale distribution of the species. There is a remarkable out-of-phase pattern linked to ENSO between the western Pacific region and the cold tongue. This pattern is consistent with the observed movements of skipjack.