Search

Basic ecological theory suggests that a tradeoff between competitiveness and stress tolerance dictates species range limits at regional extents. However, empirical support for this key theory remains deficient because the necessary spatial and temporal coverage and scalability of field observations has rarely been achieved. We harnessed an extensive dendroecological network (> 22 000 tree‐ring samples from 816 forest inventory plots) to disentangle competition‐limited from climate‐limited growth in both overstory and understory trees. Growth synchrony among trees thereby served as an integral metric of climate sensitivity, an approach that we justify in supplementary analyses of growth responses to temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index. Sampling plots were arranged along elevational climate and vegetation gradients throughout the Carpathian Mountains, ranging from mixed‐species lowland forests to coniferous forests at high elevations. With mixed‐effect modelling, we also identified non‐climatic factors (stand characteristics, species diversity, and disturbance history) that modulate spatial patterns in the growth rate and synchrony of European beech Fagus sylvatica and Norway spruce Picea abies. Beech exhibited reduced growth and increased climate sensitivity towards higher elevations but performed better when species diversity was higher. The growth of spruce increased towards its lower range boundary, but understory cohorts grew poorly under interspecific competition. Overall, climate sensitivity was lower in more productive stands with benign climatic conditions and in recently disturbed sites with reduced stand density. These contrasting performances at mid‐elevations where the two species overlap (900–1300 m a.s.l.) reflect their evolutionary history, which enables them to be competitive (beech) or cold‐stress tolerant (spruce). This history will affect interactions between the two species under climate warming and shape macroecological patterns in the Carpathian ecoregion and likely other parts of Europe. Our findings point to a growing advantage of competitively stronger species in montane and subalpine vegetation zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Each winter, purpose‐built outdoor skating rinks are constructed in backyards and community parks across much of Canada and the northern United States. Past research projects that warmer winters will make it increasingly difficult to build outdoor rinks without artificial refrigeration. Here we build upon previous studies by mapping areas of North America where present average January temperatures are generally suitable each year for building outdoor rinks, and how this area will change by the 2050s and 2080s. Using projections from downscaled general circulation models, we show how under current emissions pathways, average January temperatures will become too mild by the 2050s to build outdoor rinks across much of eastern North America in most winters, and this area will expand by the 2080s to include most of the western United States. Under high emissions scenarios (RCP 8.5), unsuitably mild January temperatures expand to include densely populated areas of Canada's Prairie provinces by the 2080s. In short, many North Americans who build outdoor rinks every winter will, by mid‐century, be living in areas where temperatures are only cold enough to do so occasionally, creating a range of social, cultural, and health implications for people living in those regions. Key messages: By the 2050s, average January temperatures across much of eastern North America will be too mild to construct and maintain outdoor skating rinks in most winters.Under high emissions scenarios, by the 2080s January temperatures will become too mild for annual construction of outdoor skating rinks in almost all of the lower 48 US states and much of the Canadian prairies.Outdoor skating provides many significant social, cultural, and health benefits that will be lost as purpose‐built rinks become increasingly rare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many Puget Sound streams, summer low flows have declined in recent decades, and are projected to decline further. Concerns that humans may be responsible have focused on two main causes: anthropogenic climate warming and aspects of development, including urbanization and the abstraction of groundwater. Difficulty in distinguishing their relative impacts has hindered the conception and design of strategies intended to restore and enhance future low flows. We analyzed trends in low flows over recent decades, separating the effects of these factors in two steps. First, low flow variation was assessed in 23 basins that are minimally disturbed by development. Low flows varied over time, and with elevation, in complex ways, consistent with the loss of snowpack at elevations >~800 m. Second, low flow trends in developed lowland basins were compared with trends in a minimally developed lowland reference basin. Flows in developed basins deviated from a purely climate‐driven pattern in unique ways, reflecting unique histories of development. In 21 lowland basins, there was no consistent decline in low flows with increasing impervious land cover, at least between 2001 and 2019. Effects on low flows of private wells alone could be assessed in only one basin, but no impact was evident. An assessment of projected relative impacts on low flows of urbanization, rural development, and anthropogenic warming suggested that the latter will be the greatest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the "Miracle May" of 2015. Although these events are often termed as "drought‐busting" or "miracle events" by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard‐to‐predict, ultra‐high precipitation events occurring during the late‐snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry‐to‐wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. In view of the potentially wetter but less‐snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these "miracle events" is emphasized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing ocean temperature will speed up physiological rates of ectotherms. In fish, this is suggested to cause earlier spawning due to faster oocyte growth rates. Over time, this could cause spawning time to become decoupled from the timing of offspring food resources, a phenomenon referred to as trophic asynchrony. We used biological data, including body length, age, and gonad developmental stages collected from >125,000 individual Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) sampled between 59 and 73° N in 1980–2019. Combined with experimental data on oocyte growth rates, our analyses show that cod spawned progressively earlier by about a week per decade, partly due to ocean warming. It also appears that spawning time varied by more than 40 days, depending on year and spawning location. The significant plasticity in spawning time seems to be fine‐tuned to the local phytoplankton spring bloom phenology. This ability to partly overcome thermal drivers and thus modulate spawning time could allow individuals to maximize fitness by closely tracking local environmental conditions important for offspring survival. Our finding highlights a new dimension for trophic match–mismatch and should be an important consideration in models used to predict phenology dynamics in a warmer climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High temperature warning indicators play a pivotal role in meteorological departments, serving as crucial criteria for issuing warnings that guide both social production and daily life. Despite their importance, limited studies have explored the relationship between different global warming levels and changes in high temperature warning indicators. In this study, we analyze data from 2,419 meteorological stations over China and utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine historical changes in high temperature warning indicators used by the China Meteorological Administration. We evaluate model performance and estimate future changes in these indicators using an annual cycle bias correction method. The results indicate that since 1961, the number of high temperature days (TX35d and TX40d) and length of season (TX40d and TX40l) with daily maximum temperature reaching or exceeding 35°C and 40°C have increased over China. The intensity of high temperatures (TXx) has strengthened and the geographical extent affected by high temperatures has expanded. In 2022, the occurrence of 40°C high temperatures surges, with Eastern China experiencing a two-day increase in TX40d and an extended seasonal length in TX40l by over five days. While CMIP6 models have underestimated the high temperature indictors associated with 35°C during historical periods, notable difference is not observed between the models and observations for TX40d and TX40l, given their rare occurrence. However, future projections, after bias correction, indicate that the increasing trends for 35°C and 40°C high temperature days and length of season become more pronounced than the raw projection, suggesting a more severe increase than that anticipated originally. As global warming intensifies, the high temperature days and length of season are projected to increase non-linearly, while the intensity of high temperatures is expected to increase linearly. For every 1°C increase in global temperature, the intensity is projected to rise by approximately 1.4°C. The impact of high temperatures is expanding, with the major hotspot for China located in the eastern and northwestern regions. Under 5°C global warming, certain regions in China may experience prolonged extreme high temperatures. For instance, 40°C high temperature days in areas like North China and the Yangtze River Basin could increase by about 32 d, and the length of season could extend by approximately 100 d. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern Tibetan Plateau is a climatically sensitive zone influenced by monsoon and westerly winds. In summer, water vapor transport can reach Qinghai Lake and the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains; in winter, westerly winds mainly control the climate. This article compares the wet/dry changes in the region during the mid-Holocene (MH) warm period, the medieval climate anomaly (MCA), the current warm period (CWP), and the future warm period from the perspective of paleoclimate. We found that the MH warm period was mainly affected by the orbit-controlled East Asian summer monsoon, and the region showed warm and humid climate characteristics. The MCA was mainly controlled by solar radiation, and there was a warm and dry phenomenon. The CWP and the future warm period are mainly controlled by the rise in temperature caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, and the climate is becoming more arid. The wet/dry patterns in the CWP and the future warm period in the next century on the northern Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the MCA. Continued warming will lead to the expansion of the westerly belt and a gradually humid climate. The future wet/dry changes will be more similar to the MH warm period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has profound impacts on ecosystems, and one critical aspect is its effect on seed germination, a crucial stage in plant life cycles. Various studies have explored the responses of plant species to rising temperatures, and there is now a pressing need to integrate this wealth of information into a coherent framework. The aim of this study was to survey literature about seed traits and thence to evaluate germination responses to climate change and to propose functional groups for germination. Increased temperature affects seed traits, particularly germinability. Many species show increased germination percentages in warmer temperatures, although the extent varies among species and temperature ranges. Some maintain a consistent percentage, whereas others reduce it to retain seeds in the seed bank. Temperature changes also affect the timing and season of germination, with some species accelerating germination, others delaying it, thereby influencing competition and exposure to adverse conditions. Shifts in temperature can alter seed requirements, affecting responses to temperature, humidity, light, chemical stimuli, and dormancy. Modifications in germination have profound effects on seed bank and seedling bank dynamics, affecting plant populations and ecological community resilience. Changes in germination can disrupt competitive dynamics, favoring some over others, altering community composition, and potentially impairing ecosystem functionality. Germination niche, germination potential, and germination phenology are fundamental concepts in the evaluation of climate change's implications for germination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our research represents the first extensive study of the breeding behaviour and related environmental triggers of reproduction in the African giant pouch rat (Cricetomys gambianus Waterhouse, 1840) in and around the equator throughout a whole year. We measured the gross morphology and detailed histology of both female and male rats, along with plasma steroid hormone levels. Contrary to other tropical-dwelling small mammals, the African giant pouch rat is a seasonal breeder; however, rainfall is not to be the primary cue of reproduction. Our study suggests that ambient temperature and photoperiod are the primary environmental cues of reproduction, with breeding occurring during the cooler months of the year, namely in the dry season. During the wet and hot season, which succeeds the dry season, there is an increase in the availability of quality food, which results in nursing mothers and weaned pups achieving a positive energy balance and increased body condition. This, in turn, increases pregnancy success and offspring survival. Climate change, particularly global warming, could harm the reproduction of African giant pouched rats as rising temperatures in and around the equator, including Tanzania, may impact their circannual reproductive cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding relationships among warming climate, increased drought severity, and the genetic architecture of hybrid drought resilience is necessary for forest conservation and management. We calculated three drought-related tree-ring-growth indices (dendrophenotypes) using tree-ring data from hybrid Pinus strobiformis–Pinus flexilis study trees at nine sites across Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas. Along with hybrid index (percentage of P. strobiformis ancestry inherited by a single tree) and climate variables, we used dendrophenotypes to (Q1) examine relationships among climate and hybrid index, (Q2) examine relationships between dendrophenotypes and hybrid index, and (Q3) conduct a genotype–phenotype analysis. We observed a significant correlation between hybrid index and dendrophenotypes resulting from high-temperature drought in addition to a significant correlation between those dendrophenotypes and our dataset of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We conclude that P. strobiformis–P. flexilis trees exhibiting higher hybrid indices are more resilient to high-temperature drought events and encourage future research that identifies a genetic linkage between relevant loci and their conferred physiological benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method for quantifying the contribution of climate change to local monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperatures for locations where long observational temperature records are available. The method is based on estimating the change in the monthly mean temperature distribution due to climate change using CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model data. As a case study, we apply the method to the record‐warm September 2023 in Helsinki, and then briefly examine all record‐warm months of the 21st century. Our results suggest that climate change made the record‐warm September in Helsinki 9.4 times more likely and 1.4°C warmer. Thus, the new monthly mean record in September 2023 would probably not have been set without the observed global warming. The presented and provided tool allows operational meteorologists and climatologists to monitor and report the impact of climate change on local temperatures in near real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations show that mesospheric clouds (MCs) have been increasing in recent decades, presumably due to increased mesospheric water vapor which is mainly caused by greater methane (CH4) oxidation in the middle atmosphere. Past warm climates such as those of the early Cretaceous and Paleogene periods are thought to have had higher CH4 concentrations than present day, and future CH4 concentrations will also likely continue to rise. Here, idealized atmosphere chemistry‐climate model experiments forced with strong polar‐amplified sea‐surface temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and CH4 concentrations predict a substantial spreading of MCs to middle and low latitudes, well beyond regions where they are currently found. Sensitivity tests show that increased water vapor from CH4 oxidation and cooling from increased CO2 and CH4 concentrations create favorable conditions for cloud formation, producing MC fractions of 0.02 in the low latitudes and 0.1 in the mid‐latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere when CH4 concentration is 16× higher than pre‐industrial. Further increases in CH4 result in a monotonic increase in low‐ and mid‐latitude MCs. A uniform surface ocean warming, changes in polar amplification, or the solar constant do not significantly affect our results. While the appearance of these clouds is interesting, their ice and liquid water content is not sufficient to cause a significant radiative effect. On the other hand, dehydration of the mesosphere due to these low‐ and mid‐latitude MCs could potentially lead to a reduction in atomic hydrogen, thereby affecting mesospheric ozone concentration, although further study is required to confirm this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Garnacha variety is one of the most important red Mediterranean grape cultivars grown in the world. However, it may not reach optimum chromatic characteristics in warm climates such as Andalusia (Southern Spain). This study analyses the impact of the application of microwaves over the crushed grapes (MW) at laboratory scale over two vintages on the characteristics of Garnacha wines elaborated from grapes cultivated in a warm climate as an additional procedure to traditional red winemaking (CT) to obtain highly coloured wines. Oenological and colour parameters were measured to determine the effects of this treatment on wines throughout the winemaking process. Overall, wines made by MW had a higher phenolic content and colour intensity. The analysis of the detailed composition of the wine showed that the treatment with microwaves before the alcoholic fermentation leads to important differences in its colour properties. Thus, the treatment with microwaves induced easily perceptible changes in CIELab coordinates (lower L* and higher a* and C*ab values than CT). Additionally, it also showed to be significantly effective to increase the extraction of phenolic compounds from grape solids into grape juice, both globally (total polyphenol index and Folin–Ciocalteu index), and particularly regarding flavanols and flavonols content. Most of the above-mentioned significant differences remained with ageing. The reported results are promising and the treatment with microwaves in the optimized conditions seems a feasible auxiliary alternative in warm climates, where wines produced from some red grape cultivars often show suboptimal colour characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide irreplaceable ecosystem services for human society and prevent environmental degradation but climate change has substantially undermined these fundamental functions. It is therefore important to examine the responses and adaptation of different tree species to climate warming. Here, we investigated how climate warming has affected tree growth patterns and growth-climate responses of a conifer (Pinus tabuliformis) and two broad-leaved species (Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla) in a temperate semi-arid region in the northern China. Our results showed that P. tabuliformis had a similar regional growth pattern and two broad-leaved species shared an interspecific growth similarity at the same site. Broad-leaved trees had a higher recovery and resilience to drought than the conifer while conifers were more resistant to drought compared to broad-leaved trees, indicating a faster drought-response of broad-leaved species than that of conifers. The warming climate has hindered the tree growth by exacerbating water-deficit, and in particular, water availability has become the limiting factor for the growth of pines in the area. Trees coped with the water-deficit by taking advantage of non-growing season water to compensate the water source for tree growth. The study not only revealed the differences of growth-climate responses between species but also highlighted the necessity to consider species-specific adaptation to climate warming and diversify forest management strategies. Highlights: The conifers and broad-leaved trees had divergent growth patterns and growth-climate response in temperate semi-arid China. Trees coped with the warming-drying climate by taking advantage of non-growing season water. The warming climate had a discriminatory effect on conifers and broad-leaved trees in temperate semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes have dramatically affected forest succession. However, how trees at different successional stages respond to climate warming is unclear in the subtropics. Here, we compared the radial growth (RW) and xylem features of the early-successional stage Castanea mollissima and late-successional stage Quercus fabri in subtropical forests and assessed their response to climate changes. All parameters, including RW, number of vessels (VN), vessel density (VD), mean (MVA) and total (TVA) vessel area, percentage of conductive area within xylem (RCTA), theoretical (Kh) and xylem-specific (Ks) hydraulic conductivity, except for MVA of C. mollissima were significantly higher than those of Q. fabri. During the drought period, a notable adverse correlation between two cluster parameters of Q. fabri, associated with hydraulic safety and efficiency, suggested a pronounced hydraulic trade-off in Q. fabri under drought conditions. Castanea mollissima was more sensitive to climate and more prone to hydraulic failure than Q. fabri. Temperatures and moisture conditions positively and negatively affected the hydraulic efficiency-related parameters of C. mollissima. Moisture conditions in the previous summer and winter were significantly negatively and positively related to the radial growth of both species. The impact of generalized warming was not evident due to variations in hydraulic strategies and species characteristics, trade-offs between non-growing and growing season climates, and specific competition. If climate warming continues, C. mollissima growth will probably significantly decline due to the increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Warming may accelerate species replacement and forest succession in the study area by changing their lifespans and competitive relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing frequency of flooding in global watersheds, driven by various human and natural factors like land use/cover changes and global warming, necessitates innovative approaches in flood frequency analysis and risk assessment. Nonetheless, the reliability of nonstationary frequency analysis models remains a concern given challenges in accurately measuring the uncertainty introduced by these methods and the impact on design flood values. In this study, deviation-based differential sensitivity indices, including single-parameter (SDDSI) and entire-parameter (EDDSI) measures were developed to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty in nonstationary models using Bayesian statistics and "equivalent reliability" nonstationary design. The Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River which is experiencing both climate change and heavy impact of human activities, is chosen to be the study area to investigate the impact of precipitation change and land use change on nonstationary flood frequency. Results show that in the One-At-A-Time (OAT) sensitivity analysis under a small uncertainty scenario (SUS) for parameter inputs, the shape parameter stands out as the most influential factor (SDDSI_SUS = 0.347) affecting the 100-year design flood in the Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (SGEV) model. For the Non-Stationary GEV (NGEV) models, the influence of this parameter is less pronounced, with SDDSI_SUS values of 0.095 and 0.093 for the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Instead, attention turns to the regression coefficient of the grassland area, associated with the GEV scale parameter. In global sensitivity analysis under the posterior uncertainty scenario (PUS) for parameter inputs, the EDDSI_PUS values for SGEV, NGEV_SSP126, and NGEV_SSP585 models were 0.52, 1.41, and 1.30, respectively, inferring heightened sensitivity of NGEV models to perturbations from entire parameters. It is anticipated that incorporating additional evidence, such as historical flood data, is essential for accurate nonstationary hydrological design to mitigating the influence of parameter uncertainty. The sensitivity indices in this study provide significant insights for assessing the robustness of nonstationary hydrological design in flood risk management and applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change impacts increase, communicators must engage as many audiences as possible in climate action. One potentially underrated audience is video gamers. Two-thirds of Americans play video games, and video games are a potentially effective climate change communication tool. However, little research has examined whether video gamers have unique value as a target audience for climate communication, and if they do, what might be effective ways to reach them. To address this need, we use two surveys including self-identified video game players in the United States to measure their current engagement with climate change, including through video gaming. In Study 1, a nationally representative survey in the United States (N = 1,006), we found that being a video gamer was slightly positively associated with intentions to take collective action on global warming. In Study 2, restricted to gamers in the United States (N = 2,034), we found that having more friends and family who played video games, and/or being exposed to global warming content in gaming, were also positively associated with collective action intentions. These findings were consistent even after controlling for potential confounding variables such as age, political party, and global warming attitudes. Results suggest that video gamers are a worthwhile potential audience for future climate change communication, combatting the stereotype of video gamers as disengaged or antisocial, at least in the context of climate change. Our study also identifies several potential avenues for future communication with video gamers, particularly outreach to and engagement with gaming communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the investigation of the electromagnetic properties of multiphase inorganic materials (i.e., soils) in changing subsurface environmental conditions that are induced by climate warming. Subsurface warming in cold regions exacerbates the spatial and temporal evolution of frozen soil properties; therefore, an accurate characterization of the unfrozen water and ice content of frozen soils under different thermal conditions has become a pressing need. Several studies focused on the effect of the initial hydraulic properties on the electromagnetic properties of soils. However, detailed systematic studies on the influence of the combined effects of temperature, initial degree of saturation, applied frequency fields, and experiment scales are limited. This study aims to characterize the dielectric and electrical behavior of ice-bearing inorganic soils under the coupled effects of thermal, hydraulic, and electromagnetic conditions. A series of laboratory experiments were performed on soil samples that had different initial degrees of saturation and dry density values by electromagnetic impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and time domain reflectometry (TDR) between −10°C and 5°C. The results from the experiments revealed that the dielectric constant of the inorganic soils decreased with increasing frequency, decreasing initial volumetric water content (VWC), and temperature. The electrical resistivity values decreased with increasing frequency values, initial water content, and temperatures. In addition, the unfrozen water contents at different temperatures were calculated using a modified power law that accounts for the temperature-dependent dielectric permittivity of water and was compared with the TDR measurements. The outcomes of this study could help elucidate the intricate mechanisms of the particle–water–ice interface and their influence on the behavior of frozen soils that are needed for sustainable built and natural environments in cold regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing unprecedented changes to permafrost regions with amplified effects in the Arctic through a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. This intensified climate warming thaws both the discontinuous and continuous permafrost resulting in changes in the mechanical properties of the soils found in these regions. Since permafrost regions constitute nearly 24% of the Northern Hemisphere, understanding the strength of soils in thawed conditions is essential to analyze the stability of existing structures, and to design safer and more economical infrastructure in these regions. Specifically, thawing of the permafrost is causing considerable reductions in its strength of soils, which may lead to massive landslides, foundation failures, and so forth. Since frozen soil is a multiphase structure that consists of soil particles, unfrozen water, ice, and air, each constituent will influence the mechanical properties. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge of the impact of temperature, volumetric ice content, unfrozen water content, and frozen density on the compressive strength, peak shear strength, residual shear strength, undrained shear strength, and tensile strength of soils. The undrained shear strength of soil is said to have a linear correlation with temperature. In addition, the undrained cohesion of soil was found to depend on the temperature, whereas the undrained friction angle of soil was significantly influenced by volumetric ice content. An increase in the volumetric ice content up to 80% to 90% will cause a reduction in the peak and residual deviatoric stresses. In addition, an increase in volumetric ice content resulted in an increase in the compressive strength of the soil. The tensile and compressive strengths were found to be functions of the unfrozen water content. Global warming is causing the temperature of the permafrost, which is permanently frozen ground, to rise. This paper provides valuable insights into the impact of the changes in this ambient temperature on the strength of frozen soils in permafrost regions for a wide range of applications. Such insights are crucial for the design of resilient and stable infrastructure, such as foundations, embankments, and retaining walls, in which consideration of the reduced strength of thawed soils due to climate change will be necessary. In addition, the knowledge will allow for better management of vulnerable areas prone to landslides and erosion caused by the weakened soil strength permitting the implementation of mitigation measures before lives are lost and costly economic damages are incurred. Finally, this information will aid in early warning systems, emergency planning, and decision making to minimize the impact of hazards on human settlements and infrastructure. In this paper, a review of the current state of knowledge regarding the strength of frozen soils and the associated fluctuations in these strengths because of a rise in temperature are presented. Guidelines on the best practices for sample preparation and testing along with correlations to estimate various strength parameters are also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past decade has been marked by a series of global crises, presenting an opportunity to reevaluate the relationship between science and politics. The biological sciences are instrumental in understanding natural phenomena and informing policy decisions. However, scholars argue that current scientific expertise often fails to account for entire populations and long-term impacts, hindering efforts to address issues such as biodiversity loss, global warming, and pandemics. This article explores the structural challenges of integrating an evolutionary perspective, historically opposed to functional determinants of health and disease, into current biological science practices. Using data on Swiss biology professors from 1957, 1980, and 2000, we examine the structural power dynamics that have led to the division between these competing epistemologies, and how this division has influenced resource allocation and career trajectories. Our analysis suggests that this cleavage presents a significant obstacle to achieving fruitful reconciliations, and that increased academicization and internationalization may benefit functional biologists at the expense of evolutionary biologists. While evolutionary biologists have gained symbolic recognition in recent years, this has not translated into valuable expertise in the political domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, with the rapid expansion of cloud computing technology in processing Internet of Things (IoT) workloads, the demand for data centers has significantly increased, leading to a surge in CO2 emissions, power consumption, and global warming. As a result, extensive research and initiatives have been undertaken to tackle this problem. Two specific approaches focus on enhancing workload scheduling, a complex problem known as NP-Hard, and integrating scheduling into scientific workflows. In this investigation, we present a multi-objective Crow Search Algorithm (CSA) for optimizing both makespan and costs in scientific cloud workflows (CSAMOMC). We conduct a comparative analysis between our approach and the well-known HEFT and TC3pop algorithms, which are commonly used for reducing makespan and optimizing costs. Our findings demonstrate that CSAMOMC is capable of achieving an average makespan reduction of 4.42% and a cost reduction of 4.77% when compared to the aforementioned algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conceptual framework is proposed for understanding the relationship between temperature and biological N 2 fixation (BNF) across levels of biological organization from enzymes to ecosystems on land and in the ocean. Global compilations of measured N 2 fixation rates reveal a temperature dependence that is broadly similar in marine and terrestrial systems, including a common thermal optimum at ~25°C, suggesting an overarching enzymatic constraint. Rate–temperature relationships also reveal features unique to marine and terrestrial domains, including greater heat tolerance of terrestrial BNF, suggesting the presence of, and adaptation to, distinct thermal and ecological niches. Climate warming is projected to reduce N 2 fixation in the tropics while increasing it in higher latitudes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems, a spatial shift that would impact productivity and N cycling, unless modulated by other environmental factors and physiological adaptations. Biological N 2 fixation sustains the global inventory of nitrogenous nutrients essential for the productivity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Like most metabolic processes, rates of biological N 2 fixation vary strongly with temperature, making it sensitive to climate change, but a global projection across land and ocean is lacking. Here we use compilations of field and laboratory measurements to reveal a relationship between N 2 fixation rates and temperature that is similar in both domains despite large taxonomic and environmental differences. Rates of N 2 fixation increase gradually to a thermal optimum around ~25°C, and decline more rapidly toward a thermal maximum, which is lower in the ocean than on land. In both realms, the observed temperature sensitivities imply that climate warming this century could decrease N 2 fixation rates by ~50% in the tropics while increasing rates by ~50% in higher latitudes. We propose a conceptual framework for understanding the physiological and ecological mechanisms that underpin and modulate the observed temperature dependence of global N 2 fixation rates, facilitating cross-fertilization of marine and terrestrial research to assess its response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since widespread monitoring began in 1976 in the UK, habitat‐specialist butterfly populations have declined dramatically. The main driver is habitat degradation, caused primarily by land‐use change, perhaps interacting with changes in vegetation phenology.Here, we focus on two declining species: Boloria selene (Dennis & Schiffermüller) and Boloria euphrosyne L., Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. We hypothesise that these species differ in their preferred breeding habitat, and this is driven by differences in their temperature preferences, mediated by vegetation cover.We use mark‐release‐recapture techniques and oviposition observations to characterise and compare adult distribution, habitat use and oviposition site preferences of the two species.Egg‐laying females of both species are shown to occur in areas with relatively high abundance of the larval food plants, Viola spp. (violets), principally V. riviniana, and they oviposit where Viola spp. abundance is locally high. However, in contrast to B. selene, ovipositing B. euphrosyne tends to occur in areas with relatively short and sparse cover of vegetation.B. euphrosyne oviposit in sites with a relatively high plant surface temperature irrespective of ambient temperatures, in contrast with B. selene in which the temperature of oviposition sites increases as ambient temperature increases. These differential temperature strategies likely underlie differences in breeding habitat preference.Microclimatic cooling caused by increased vegetation growth in spring may be one reason B. euphrosyne is declining in the UK, while both B. euphrosyne and B. selene may be affected by declining Viola spp. availability. Our data provide further evidence that drivers of butterfly declines can be multi‐factorial, and paradoxically, that thermophilic species do not necessarily benefit from climate warming if responses of other species result in cooling of their habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Species responses to global warming will depend on intraspecific diversity, yet studies of factors governing biogeographic patterns of variability are scarce. Here, we investigate the evolutionary processes underlying genetic and phenotypic diversity in the flightless and cold‐adapted grasshopper Sigaus piliferus, and project its suitable space in time. Location: Te Ika‐a‐Māui Aotearoa—North Island of New Zealand. Methods: We used mitochondrial sequences to investigate population connectivity and demographic trends using phylogeographic tools and neutrality statistics. Metric data were used to document phenotypic variation using naïve clustering. We used niche metrics to assess intraspecific niche variation, and niche modelling to investigate suitability under past and future scenarios. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization explored the processes contributing to phenotypic differentiation among grasshopper populations. Results: Niche models and demographic analyses suggest suitable space for this grasshopper was more restricted during glacial than interglacial stages. Genealogical relationships among ND2 haplotypes revealed a deep north–south split partly concordant with phenotypic and niche variation, suggesting two ecotypes that have mixed during recolonisation of the central volcanic region. Multiple matrix regressions with randomization indicate a link between climate and phenotypic differentiation inferred from leg and pronotum dimensions but not pronotum shape. Niche projections predict severe habitat reduction due to climate warming. Main conclusions: The current distribution and intraspecific diversity of S. piliferus reflect complex biogeographical scenarios consistent with Quaternary climates and volcanism. Phenotypic divergence appears adaptive. Current levels of genetic and phenotypic variation suggest adaptive potential, yet the pace of anthropogenic warming over the next 50 years could result in small populations that may collapse before adapting. Differences in niche features between diverging intraspecific lineages suggest distinct responses to climate change, and this has implications for prioritising conservation actions and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Ongoing climate change is presently influencing the distribution ranges of numerous species, with both range expansions and latitudinal shifts being observed. In southern Europe, a biogeographical border that separates African and European biota, while at the same time acting as a migration bridge for many species, these changes are of particular relevance. This study aimed to analyse the responses of nine typically African birds to climate change to provide information on the ongoing and future occupation of Europe by these species. Location: Western Palearctic and surrounding areas. Methods: To this end, the distributions of the species in their native ranges were modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using their current breeding ranges and a set of topographic and climatic variables. The climatic favourability for the nine species was then combined using fuzzy logic. Results: The results showed that southern Europe is highly favourable for our set of African birds, except for Rüppell's Vulture, and future forecasts indicated that this favourability would increase further north, again excluding the African Vulture. Main conclusions: If the climate continues to warm, further arrivals of individuals are to be expected, increasing the possibility that self‐sustaining populations may become established in southern Europe. Furthermore, new African species may start to occupy this area, with the likelihood of an Africanisation of the European fauna. Considering the role played by southern Europe as a potential focal point for the colonisation of this continent by African species, it is important to track their northward expansion and future spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population-level variation in rodent tail structures has been variously attributed to facilitating social communication, locomotion, thermoregulation, and predator avoidance. Little is known, however, about the applicability of these ecological and social correlates to explaining the tremendous interspecific diversity of this appendage. To investigate the potential drivers of rodent tail morphology at a macroevolutionary level, we first carefully reviewed the literature and constructed a list of major hypotheses regarding this variation. We then compiled a database of 11 different tail traits related to length, color, texture, and ecological characteristics for 2,101 species of rodents (order Rodentia) and examined their key evolutionary correlates. Using Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models across the entire order and additionally within the five rodent suborders, we found that tail length is correlated with both temperature (Allen's rule) and locomotory mode, that black tips are more common in brightly lit environments, that naked tails are often found in warmer climates, that fluffy-tipped tails are more common in smaller and/or arboreal species, that prehensility is predominant in arboreal species and/or species with longer tails, and that tail autotomy is more common in open environments. Most of our tested predictions, largely drawn from population-level studies, are not recapitulated across the entire order, potentially indicating a role of local ecological context in shaping tail morphology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A subcooler reduces the total mass flow rate for a given operation conditions. • Reduced evaporator superheat improves the evaporator heat transfer. • The coefficient of performance increases using a subcooling system. • Flash gas mass flow rate used to reduce the superheat at the compressor inlet. A new position of an internal heat exchanger within the thermodynamic cycle is proposed to improve the performance of CO 2 refrigeration systems in warm climates, specifically in supermarket applications. The proposed configuration uses the saturated vapor from the liquid receiver to recover the heat that is rejected by a subcooler positioned after the gas cooler. This system results in a reduced evaporator superheat. This configuration is compared with a reference system. The experimental study is conducted on a CO 2 laboratory cooling system reproducing a commercial plant. The cooling capacity of the system is 30 kW. The water inlet temperature in the gas cooler (hot source) varies from 15 °C to 35 °C, while the mono-ethylene glycol outlet temperature of the evaporator (cold source) is fixed at -8 °C. The setup is validated through an energy balance. Using a subcooler in this new position improves the coefficient of performance by 10.2 % under transcritical conditions and 6.3 % under subcritical conditions when compared with the reference system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to determine the phenological characteristics of thermal responses in the larvae of a Culex pipiens complex field population at the individual level under the influence of thermal regime of its habitat. The analysis is based on a structured population model quantifying the thermal responses of development time and survival under variable conditions and characterising the variety between the larvae (interindividual variety). During the study performed in Turkish Thrace on a monthly basis between May 2021 and June 2022, a total of 3744 larvae were reared as peer larval cohorts and 2330 larvae as siblings in artificial containers to be fully exposed to the natural thermal condition that was recorded hourly. The development process of larvae was monitored daily from egg to adult. As a result, a total of 4788 adult mosquitoes emerged, with a development period ranging from 8 to 52 days in the females and 7 to 50 days in the males, and the survival rate was found to range from 0% to 100%. Both parameters varied by month and individuals, and the variations manifested itself, particularly in the colder periods. The results indicate that the variation between the individuals in terms of thermal response in the larvae of C. pipiens, along with the thermal acclimation ability, appears to be fate determinant in resisting fluctuating thermal regimes, surviving in concurrent climate change and adapting to new conditions with modifications in the seasonal phenology, such as maintaining reproductive dynamics throughout the winter thanks to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Terrestrial plants are sensitive indicators of global warming because their annual cycles of growth and senescence are changing as warming proceeds. Single celled algae are distinct life forms capable of population bursts in any season, so there is uncertainty about phytoplankton phenology as a comparable indicator of global warming. We analyzed 4+ decades of monthly chlorophyll a measurements at two sites in San Francisco Bay and found abrupt shifts during summer months leading to a 48‐day advance in the annual pattern of chlorophyll‐a accumulation at one site and a 36‐day delay at the other. These large phenological changes were not associated with changing temperature, but they were associated with changes in top–down control by bivalve filter feeders as biological communities were restructured by (1) introduction of a non‐native clam, and (2) a shift in atmospheric forcing of the NE Pacific. This study illustrates that changes in phytoplankton phenology are not necessarily responses to or indicators of global warming. However, they can be indicators of human disturbances and natural climate oscillations having effects large enough to mask the effect of climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Headwater streams play a large role in aquatic greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and dissolved oxygen in streams often undergo changes through diel cycles. However, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have unknown diel dynamics. Here, we reveal consistent patterns in CO2, CH4, and N2O over diel cycles and during flood events using high‐frequency continuous observations in a subtropical headwater stream. Diel cycles were most pronounced during baseflow. Increased nighttime discharge due to higher groundwater inputs enhanced gas transfer velocities and concentrations. Overall nocturnal emissions were 31%, 68%, and 32% greater than daytime for CO2, CH4, and N2O, respectively. Floods dampened diel signals. If both flood events and diel patterns are neglected, estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from headwaters may be greatly underestimated. Overall, CH4 and N2O emissions from headwater streams may be underestimated by ~ 20–40% due to a lack of observations during nighttime, floods, and in warmer climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity reserves are a crucial in-situ method to conserve biodiversity hotspots as they are sensitive to climate change. The Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) in the western Himalayas is enriched with diverse endemic flora and fauna and endorses the second-highest mountain peak in the world. However, in the recent decade, this region has potentially warmed at an alarming rate. With 36 temperature and precipitation indices from high-resolution 40-year data from ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS, this paper assesses the state of warming and extreme climatic events. Apart from the indices, Landsat (NASA/USGS, USA) and QuickSCAT (ISRO, India) were utilized to assess the region's response to climate change. An increase of 0.73ºC in the last decade for minimum, 0.26°C for maximum temperatures was observed, with the highest anomaly of 1.7°C in 2016. The reserve's vegetation pattern has changed with the vegetative region's dispersal towards the north and higher elevations. In the year 2000, the area without any vegetation covered 79% of the total area, which declined to a mere 23.8% in the year 2020, equivalent to a 70% decline in the area. Similarly, the area with very dense region covered only 0.02% of the total area in the year 2000, and in the year 2020, it increased to 109%. Snow cover seems to be worst affected in the region with dense snow cover declining maximum by 2020. From coverage of 12.3% of the total area of the reserves, it was reduced to a mere 0.02%, showing a decline of nearly 100% in the region. Our findings show that although protected areas are meant to be resilient to external anthropogenic intrusions, they are highly susceptible to the intrinsic forces of induced climate change. We suggest that reserve managers enable robust measures to identify the distribution of vulnerable species and introduce new methods to preserve the pristine hotspot region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid acceleration of global warming has led to an increased burden of high temperature-related diseases (HTDs), highlighting the need for advanced evidence-based management strategies. We have developed a conceptual framework aimed at alleviating the global burden of HTDs, grounded in the One Health concept. This framework refines the impact pathway and establishes systematic data-driven models to inform the adoption of evidence-based decision-making, tailored to distinct contexts. We collected extensive national-level data from authoritative public databases for the years 2010e2019. The burdens of five categories of disease causes e cardiovascular diseases, infectious respiratory diseases, injuries, metabolic diseases, and non-infectious respiratory diseases e were designated as intermediate outcome variables. The cumulative burden of these five categories, referred to as the total HTD burden, was the final outcome variable. We evaluated the predictive performance of eight models and subsequently introduced twelve intervention measures, allowing us to explore optimal decision-making strategies and assess their corresponding contributions. Our model selection results demonstrated the superior performance of the Graph Neural Network (GNN) model across various metrics. Utilizing simulations driven by the GNN model, we identified a set of optimal intervention strategies for reducing disease burden, specifically tailored to the seven major regions: East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Sectoral mitigation and adaptation measures, acting upon our categories of Infrastructure & Community, Ecosystem Resilience, and Health System Capacity, exhibited particularly strong performance for various regions and diseases. Seven out of twelve interventions were included in the optimal intervention package for each region, including raising low-carbon energy use, increasing energy intensity, improving livestock feed, expanding basic health care delivery coverage, enhancing health financing, addressing air pollution, and improving road infrastructure. The outcome of this study is a global decision-making tool, offering a systematic methodology for policymakers to develop targeted intervention strategies to address the increasingly severe challenge of HTDs in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Climate is a major driver of large‐scale variability in biodiversity, as a likely result of more intense biotic interactions under warmer conditions. This idea fuelled decades of research on plant‐herbivore interactions, but much less is known about higher‐level trophic interactions. We addressed this research gap by characterizing both bird diversity and avian predation along a climatic gradient at the European scale. Location: Europe. Taxon: Insectivorous birds and pedunculate oaks. Methods: We deployed plasticine caterpillars in 138 oak trees in 47 sites along a 19° latitudinal gradient in Europe to quantify bird insectivory through predation attempts. In addition, we used passive acoustic monitoring to (i) characterize the acoustic diversity of surrounding soundscapes; (ii) approximate bird abundance and activity through passive acoustic recordings; and (iii) infer both taxonomic and functional diversity of insectivorous birds from recordings. Results: The functional diversity of insectivorous birds increased with warmer climates. Bird predation increased with forest cover and bird acoustic activity but decreased with mean annual temperature and functional richness of insectivorous birds. Contrary to our predictions, climatic clines in bird predation attempts were not directly mediated by changes in insectivorous bird diversity or acoustic activity, but climate and habitat still had independent effects on predation attempts. Main Conclusions: Our study supports the hypothesis of an increase in the diversity of insectivorous birds towards warmer climates but refutes the idea that an increase in diversity would lead to more predation and advocates for better accounting for activity and abundance of insectivorous birds when studying the large‐scale variation in insect‐tree interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Global climate change has been linked to shifts in species' geographic and elevational distributions, with taxa varying in responsiveness. This variation may be due to a time lag in response or climate alone not being a simple determinant of distribution limits. To tease apart the role of climate in distribution, we compared the temperature response of predicted occurrence revealed by ecological niche modelling (ENM) on historical climate with that of performance in a multi‐population transplant experiment. Congruence would support that climate is a main driver of distribution limits of a species. Location: North America. Taxon: Arabidopsis lyrata subsp. lyrata. Methods: Seeds of 20 populations of North American Arabidopsis lyrata from across the entire range were collected, propagated and then sown along a latitudinal transect across and beyond the species' range. Lifetime performance was related to the main niche‐ and range‐determining climatic variable revealed by ENM. Results: Lifetime performance did not consistently decline towards the high‐latitude range limit, but it did so towards the low‐latitude range limit. This decline was slightly weaker for low‐latitude populations, indicating divergent climate adaptation. The overall performance curve on the field‐measured minimum temperature in early spring was fairly congruent with the curve of ENM‐predicted suitability on this important niche‐determining variable. ENM‐based projections revealed that the southernmost populations were vulnerable under climate warming. Main Conclusions: Results verified that ENM based on species occurrences can well‐predict plant performance under field conditions. Congruence teaches us that with the climate change so far, the species exhibits a colonisation deficit in the north. Furthermore, the southernmost populations are vulnerable to extinction. A likely outcome is the shrinking of the species' range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The correlation between CO 2 emission and ambient temperature is linear. • The effect of temperature and load on CO 2 emission can be quantified. Because of global warming, people have paid more attention to greenhouse gas emitted by vehicles. To quantify the impact of temperature on vehicle CO 2 emissions, this study was conducted using the world light vehicle test cycle on two light-duty E10 gasoline vehicles at ambient temperatures of -10, 0, 23, and 40℃, and found that CO 2 emission factors of Vehicle 1 in the low-speed phase were 22.07% and 20.22% higher than those of Vehicle 2 at cold start and hot start under -10℃. The reason was vehicle 1 had a larger displacement and more friction pairs than vehicle 2. There was the highest CO 2 emission at the low-speed phase due to low average speed, frequent acceleration, and deceleration. The CO 2 temperature factor and the ambient temperature had a strong linear correlation (R 2 = 0.99). According to CO 2 temperature factors and their relationships, CO 2 emission factors of other ambient temperatures could be calculated when the CO 2 emission factor of 23℃ was obtained, and the method also could be used to obtain the CO 2 temperature factors of different vehicles. To separate the effect of load setting and temperature variation on CO 2 emission quantitatively, a method was proposed. And results showed that the load setting was dominant for the CO 2 emission variation. Compared with 23℃, the CO 2 emission for vehicle 1 caused by load setting variation were 62.83 and 47.42 g/km, respectively at -10 and 0℃, while those for vehicle 2 were 45.01 and 35.63 g/km, respectively. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We are using the fossil record of different marine plankton groups to determine how their biodiversity has changed during past climate warming comparable to projected future warming. Location: North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Time series cover a latitudinal range from 75° N to 6° S. Time period: Past 24,000 years, from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the current warm period covering the last deglaciation. Major taxa studied: Planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. Methods: We analyse time series of fossil plankton communities using principal component analysis and generalized additive models to estimate the overall trend of temporal compositional change in each plankton group and to identify periods of significant change. We further analyse local biodiversity change by analysing species richness, species gains and losses, and the effective number of species in each sample, and compare alpha diversity to the LGM mean. Results: All plankton groups show remarkably similar trends in the rates and spatio‐temporal dynamics of local biodiversity change and a pronounced non‐linearity with climate change in the current warm period. Assemblages of planktonic foraminifera and dinoflagellates started to change significantly with the onset of global warming around 15,500 to 17,000 years ago and continued to change at the same rate during the current warm period until at least 5000 years ago, while coccolithophore assemblages changed at a constant rate throughout the past 24,000 years, seemingly irrespective of the prevailing temperature change. Main conclusions: Climate change during the transition from the LGM to the current warm period led to a long‐lasting reshuffling of zoo‐ and phytoplankton assemblages, likely associated with the emergence of new ecological interactions and possibly a shift in the dominant drivers of plankton assemblage change from more abiotic‐dominated causes during the last deglaciation to more biotic‐dominated causes with the onset of the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eutrophication is a main threat to continental aquatic ecosystems. Prevention and amelioration actions have been taken under the assumption of a stable climate, which needs reconsideration. Here, we show that reduced precipitation can bring a lake ecosystem to a more productive regime even with a decline in nutrient external load. By analyzing time series of several decades in the largest lake of the Iberian Peninsula, we found autocorrelated changes in the variance of state variables (i.e., chlorophyll and oxygen) indicative of a transient situation towards a new ecosystem regime. Indeed, exceptional planktonic diatom blooms have occurred during the last few years, and the sediment record shows a shift in phytoplankton composition and an increase in nutrient retention. Reduced precipitation almost doubled the water residence time in the lake, enhancing the relevance of internal processes. This study demonstrates that ecological quality targets for aquatic ecosystems must be tailored to the changing climatic conditions for appropriate stewardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During Heinrich events, great armadas of icebergs episodically flooded the North Atlantic Ocean and weakened overturning circulation. The ice discharges of these episodes constrain the sensitivity of overturning circulation to iceberg melting. We reconstructed these ice discharges to be as high as 0.13 sverdrup (Sv) (1 Sv = 1 million cubic meters per second) during Heinrich event 4 and to average 0.029 Sv over all episodes. The present-day Greenland Ice Sheet calving of icebergs is comparable to that of a mid-range Heinrich event. As the future Greenland Ice Sheet recedes from marine-terminating outlets, its iceberg calving likely will not persist long enough for icebergs alone to cause catastrophic disruption to the Atlantic overturning circulation, although the accelerating Greenland runoff and continued global warming remain threats to the circulation stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of spatial biodiversity dynamics under climate warming are often based on models including only climate variables, and when non-climatic factors (e.g. soil) are included, data are often at much coarser spatial resolutions than those experienced by plants. Field studies along elevation gradients permit the gathering of detailed soil data, while still covering a wide climatic gradient. Here, an intensive field survey of four spring forest herbs along an elevation gradient showed that soil properties had substantial impacts on the occurrence/abundance of all species, and that soil effects were more pronounced at higher elevations. For Trillium erectum and Claytonia caroliniana, very infrequent occurrences at high elevation were strongly associated with rare microsites with high pH or nutrients. In a seven-year transplant experiment with T. erectum, we found that individuals grew to much smaller sizes at high than low elevation, suggesting that environmental factors rather than dispersal limitation constrain the species' upper range limit, despite substantial warming in recent decades. Our study demonstrates that soil factors interact strongly with climate to determine plant range limits along climatic gradients. Unsuitable soils for plants at high elevations or latitudes may represent an important constraint on future plant migration and biodiversity change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic sea ice cover has decreased rapidly over the last few decades both in extent and thickness. Here we present multi‐year (2013–2022) observations of sea ice thickness in the northwestern Barents Sea based on Upward Looking Sonar measurements and show that the winter sea ice has become thicker over the last decade. Sea ice thickness from the Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) reproduces both the observed variability and recent 10‐year trend and shows that this thickening (0.24 m decade−1) has not been seen since the 1990s. Using PIOMAS we find that the recent increase in sea ice thickness can be explained by increased sea ice freezing as a result of lower temperatures in the ocean and in the atmosphere. The recent thickening is set in the context of a long‐term thinning trend, with PIOMAS showing much thinner ice now than in the 1980s. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic sea ice cover is becoming smaller and thinner due to global warming. We have measured sea ice thickness in the Barents Sea since 2013, and find that the ice thickness has increased since the measurements were initiated, contrary to what we would expect in a warming world. The Arctic sea ice cover can, however, increase for periods typically up to a decade due to natural climate variability. We find that increased sea ice formation due to lower ocean and air temperatures has caused the recent thickening of the ice cover. We also find that the Barents Sea ice thickness has decreased since the 1980s, and despite the recent thickening, the ice cover is much thinner now than it used to be. Key Points: Upward Looking Sonar measurements in the Barents Sea show increased sea ice thickness during the last decadeIn an ice‐ocean reanalysis (PIOMAS) the recent thickening is due to increased ice freezing, associated with lower ocean and air temperaturesThe long‐term thickness trend is negative, meaning that despite recent thickening, ice is now much thinner than in the 1980s [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that global ocean circulation would be significantly changed under global warming, while the change of North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) and its mechanisms are still unclear. Here, we investigate the location and intensity changes of NECC under global warming based on CESM1 high‐resolution long‐term simulations from the perspective of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), considering the close connection between NECC and ITCZ and well‐established changes of ITCZ. It is found that the annual‐mean NECC shifts equatorward of 0.39° and weakens by 21.71% in the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of 21st century. The NECC change is seasonally dependent, with maximum shift and weakening during spring, consistent with the changes of ITCZ. Both the location and intensity changes of ITCZ are important in the NECC changes, especially for spring. The weakening and equatorward shift of ITCZ contributes almost equally to the strongest decrease of spring NECC (47.63%). Plain Language Summary: Global ocean circulation is suggested to exhibit significant changes under global warming, but whether and why the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) would change is still unclear. It is well known that the NECC and Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are closely coupled through air‐sea interaction. Under global warming, previous studies found that the ITCZ would move closer to the equator with maximum shift in spring and the annual‐mean NECC would be weakened in response to the enhanced equatorial warming. Hence, it is important to investigate whether the NECC would change following the ITCZ change. Here, based on long‐term simulations from a high‐resolution climate model, it is found that the NECC will indeed move closer to the equator under global warming following the equatorward shift of ITCZ. The NECC also gets weakened under global warming following the weakened ITCZ convergence, although the ITCZ precipitation gets stronger due to more moisture under warming. In spring, the largest equatorward shift of ITCZ has a comparable contribution to the largest decrease of NECC. Key Points: The North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) would be southward shift and weakened under global warmingThe future changes of NECC are seasonally dependent, with maximum southward shift and weakening in springThe NECC changes are closely related to the location and intensity changes of Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone, especially in spring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has intensified the intensity of compound drought‐hot extremes (CDHEs), posing more severe impacts on human societies and ecosystems than individual extremes. The vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems under CDHEs, along with its key influencing factors, remains poorly understood. Based on multiple remote sensing data, we construct a Vine Copula model to appraise vegetation vulnerability under CDHEs, and attribute it to climatic and biotic factors for five different vegetation types. High vulnerability is detected in central and southern regions of North America, eastern and southern regions of South America, Southern Africa, northern and western Europe, and northern and eastern Australia. The drier the climate, the higher will be the vulnerability. Furthermore, biodiversity and biomass are key biotic factors influencing the vulnerability of various vegetation types, such that ecosystems with richer biodiversity and higher biomass have lower vulnerability to CDHEs. The findings deepen understanding of terrestrial ecosystem response to CDHEs. Plain Language Summary: Drought and hot‐related extremes often coincide or follow one another, known as compound drought‐hot extremes (CDHEs), adversely affecting various vegetation processes. Thus, investigating the response relationship between vegetation dynamics and CDHEs is critical for maintaining the sustainable development of ecosystems under the background of climate warming. High ecosystem vulnerability is detected in central and southern regions of North America, eastern and southern regions of South America, Southern Africa, northern and western Europe, and northern and eastern Australia. Climatic factors (precipitation, arid index, temperature, and radiation) dominate the vulnerability of all vegetation types. The drier the climate, the higher will be the vulnerability of vegetation to CDHEs. Furthermore, biodiversity and biomass are key biotic factors influencing the vulnerability. The results provide us with essential insights for managing and adapting terrestrial ecosystems against climate change and are of interest to a wide range of audiences, including but not limited to ecologists, hydrologists, and climatologists. Key Points: A framework is developed to estimate the vegetation vulnerability in response to compound drought‐hot extremes and attribute it to various factorsVegetation vulnerability is higher for grasses and shrubs than for evergreen and deciduous forestsVegetation vulnerability is both affected by climate and biotic factors, but climate factors are more dominant [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle, of which the phase and amplitude are closely associated with water resource management. While previous studies suggested an emerged delaying phase in the past decades, whether the amplified amplitude has emerged is controversial. Using multiple observational data sets and climate simulations, here we show that the amplification of precipitation annual cycle has emerged in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropics. These amplifications are mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions, and will be further intensified by 17.6% in the future (2081–2100) under high emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP585), and limited to 7.2% under SSP126 scenario, relative to the historical period (1982–2014). Precipitation seasonality will be amplified by 4.2% for each 1°C of global warming, which is seen in all emission scenarios. The mitigation of lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality in a warming world. Plain Language Summary: Precipitation displays pronounced seasonal cycle, and its phase and amplitude are closely associated with ecosystems and our society by redistributing water resources. The phase of precipitation cycle has been well understood in previous studies, but how its magnitude changes remain largely unknown. In this study, we use multiple observational data sets and climate simulations to show that precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most parts of global land area since the 1980s. These amplifications are especially strong in the tropical regions, and are mainly driven by the increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. In the future (2081–2100) under high emission scenario (SSP585), they will be further intensified by 17.6% relative to the historical period (1982–2014), and will be limited to 7.2% under low emission scenario (SSP126). We also estimate that the amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be increased by around 4.2% for each 1°C of global warming, and suggest that keeping lower emissions is helpful for alleviating the amplification of precipitation seasonality. Key Points: Precipitation annual cycle has been amplified in most global land areas since the 1980s, especially in the tropicsPrecipitation seasonality amplification will be intensified in the future, mainly driven by anthropogenic emissionsThe amplitude of precipitation seasonality will be amplified by ∼4.2% for each 1°C of global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All climate models project a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength in response to greenhouse gas forcing. However, the climate impacts of the AMOC decline alone cannot be isolated from other drivers of climate change using existing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations. To address this issue, we conduct idealized experiments using the EC‐Earth3 climate model. We compare an abrupt 4×CO2 simulation with the same experiment, except we artificially fix the AMOC strength at preindustrial levels. With this design, we can formally attribute differences in climate change impacts between these two experiments to the AMOC decline. In addition, we quantify the state‐dependence of AMOC impacts by comparing the aforementioned experiments with a preindustrial simulation in which we artificially reduce the AMOC strength. Our findings demonstrate that AMOC decline impacts are state‐dependent, thus understanding AMOC impacts on future climate change requires targeted model experiments. Plain Language Summary: Climate models predict that the Atlantic Ocean's major circulation system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will weaken during the 21st century. This weakening could have significant impacts on the climate. However, it is challenging to isolate the AMOC's effects because other factors, such as rising greenhouse gas levels, also affect the climate. To better understand the AMOC's role, in this study we use a climate model to conduct numerical experiments. We compare a simulation of the preindustrial climate with one in which we artificially decrease the strength of the AMOC. Then, we compare the preindustrial climate with two forced simulations: one with a fourfold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, where the AMOC weakens as expected, and another where we keep the AMOC at its preindustrial strength despite higher CO2 levels. By comparing these experiments, we determine that the impacts of an AMOC decline depend on the background climate state. This research demonstrates that ad‐hoc model experiments are needed to understand the impacts of a weakened AMOC in a changing climate. Key Points: We present new idealized experiments to assess the influence of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on future climate changeWe use the EC‐Earth3 climate model to carry out experiments imposing abrupt 4×CO2 forcing but fixing the AMOC strength, and then we compare them with preindustrial water hosing experimentsWe find that AMOC impacts on temperature and precipitation depend on the background climate state [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of various climate forcing agents, such as aerosols, on extreme precipitation is socially and scientifically vital. While anthropogenic absorbing aerosols influence Earth's energy balance and atmospheric convection, their role in extreme events remains unclear. This paper uses convective‐resolving radiative‐convective‐equilibrium simulations, with fixed solar radiation, to investigate the influence of absorbing aerosols on extreme precipitation comprehensively. Our findings reveal an underappreciated mechanism through which absorbing aerosols can, under certain conditions, strongly intensify extreme precipitation. Notably, we demonstrate that a mechanism previously reported for much warmer (hothouse) climates, where intense rainfall alternates with multi‐day dry spells, can operate under current realistic conditions due to absorbing aerosol influence. This mechanism operates when an aerosol perturbation shifts the lower tropospheric radiative heating rate to positive values, generating a strong inhibition layer. Our work highlights an additional potential effect of absorbing aerosols, with implications for climate change mitigation and disaster risk management. Plain Language Summary: Aerosols, particles suspended in the atmosphere, can interact with the incoming solar radiation by scattering or absorbing it. Aerosol species that absorb solar radiation generate local warming of the atmosphere. This local warming changes the vertical profile of temperature and by that affects cloud and precipitation development. In this paper we use idealized computer simulations to investigate the effect of absorbing aerosols on precipitation, and specifically on extreme precipitation events in the tropics. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, absorbing aerosols can strongly enhance extreme precipitation even despite reducing the mean. We show that this trend can be explained by a mechanism previously reported for much warmer climate conditions than currently found on Earth, involving heating by radiation of the lower part of the troposphere. These results have implications for climate change mitigation and disaster risk management. Key Points: The effect of absorbing aerosol on extreme precipitation is examined in idealized convective‐resolving radiative‐convective‐equilibrium simulationsAerosol perturbation that shifts the lower tropospheric radiative heating rate to positive values strongly enhances extreme precipitationThis trend is explained by a mechanism reported before for hothouse climate conditions involving a shift into an "episodic deluge" regime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current global warming results in an uptake of heat by the Earth system, which is distributed among the different components of the climate system. However, current‐generation climate models deliver heat inventory and partitioning estimates of Earth system components that differ from recent observations. Here we investigate the global heat distribution under warming by using fully‐coupled CMIP6 Earth system model experiments, including a version of the MPI‐ESM with a deep land model component, accommodating the required space for more realistic terrestrial heat storage. The results show that sufficiently deep land models exert increased subsurface land heat uptake, leading to a heat uptake partitioning among the Earth system components that is closer to observational estimates. The results are relevant for the understanding of Earth's heat partitioning and highlight the importance of the land heat sink in the Earth heat inventory. Plain Language Summary: Global warming is associated with heat accumulation in the Earth system due to the intensification of the greenhouse effect. The available heat is distributed unevenly throughout the climate subsystems: the ocean, land, atmosphere, and cryosphere. Overall, the current generation of climate models captures this partitioning well but, on average, shows an overestimation of the ocean heat uptake and an underestimation of the land heat uptake. Previous studies have shown that the lack of heat input into the land comes from structural limitations in the land model components used. In this study, we account for these shortcomings, which greatly improve the land heat uptake in simulations of future climate scenarios. We find that, as a result, the fraction of simulated heat taken up by the ocean is reduced. This leads to a heat distribution among the climate subsystems that is closer to observational estimates. Our results highlight that land heat uptake is relevant for the Earth system heat distribution and that future research should consider modeling approaches including a more realistic land heat sink. Key Points: Considering a sufficient land depth in current‐generation Earth system models facilitates realistic land heat uptake estimates under warmingIncreased land heat uptake leads to an adjusted global heat distribution and a reduced overestimation of simulated ocean heat uptakeThe land heat sink is relevant for the projection of the global energy inventory and its partitioning under global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies have shown changes in the impact of atmospheric teleconnections on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) at interannual time scales due to the changing background state. However, the exploration of potential changes at subseasonal time scales remains limited. In this study, we use a causal discovery method to find the tropical atmospheric drivers of ISM subseasonal anomalies, and quantify the causal effects of the drivers on ISM, as well as the changes in causal effects over the past 40 years. We find the impact of tropical western Pacific on ISM subseasonal anomalies has strengthened, while the ISM self‐feedback has weakened. Wavenumber‐frequency analysis shows that the Rossby wave energy over 15°N–30°N at periods of 10–20 days has increased over the past four decades, which offers a plausible explanation for the enhanced tropical atmospheric teleconnection between western Pacific and ISM at subseasonal time scales. Plain Language Summary: The subseasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is vital to agriculture and economy. Therefore, it is important to understand the drivers of ISM subseasonal anomalies, how strong an impact of a driver is, as well as potential changes in the strength of such an impact. In this study, we explore the possible drivers for ISM subseasonal anomalies by using a causal discovery method, and taking into account the tropical geopotential height anomalies together with the ISM. Two tropical atmospheric drivers of ISM subseasonal anomalies are detected: one is the geopotential height anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, and the other is the ISM itself. Over the past four decades, the tropical western Pacific has exerted an enhanced influence on ISM subseasonal anomalies, while the self‐feedback of ISM has weakened. Under global warming, more anomalous convection signals can emanate over the western Pacific, and propagate westward to influence the ISM region, which might explain the physical mechanism behind the enhanced impact of the western Pacific on ISM subseasonal anomalies. Key Points: Causal analysis reveals the causal impact of the tropical western Pacific on Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and of ISM on itself at subseasonal time scalesThe causal impact of the western Pacific on ISM has strengthened, while the ISM self‐feedback has weakened over the past 40 yearsThe impact of the tropical western Pacific on ISM subseasonal anomalies is strengthening due to amplified Rossby wave energy over 15°N–30°N [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cloud feedback may result in amplification or damping of Arctic warming. Two common techniques used to diagnose the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere cloud feedback are the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect (AdjCRE) method and the Cloud Radiative Kernel (CRK) method. We apply both to CMIP5 and CMIP6 model data, finding that the AdjCRE calculated Arctic shortwave cloud feedback is twice as correlated with sea ice loss in CMIP5, and four times in CMIP6, as the CRK method. We find that the CRK method produces Arctic all‐sky residual percentages exceeding 20% in 15 of 18 models. We use the CRK method to decompose the feedback in CMIP5 and CMIP6 finding that its median value changed from negative to positive driven by a less‐negative cloud optical depth feedback. Despite its lack of closure, we conclude that the CRK method is better suited for Arctic SW feedbacks as it is less impacted by surface albedo changes. Plain Language Summary: The cloud feedback is the process by which cloud property changes in a warming climate can either further enhance warming or damp it. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe, and one of the largest sources of uncertainty in its climate projections is the cloud feedback. There are two popular methods to calculate the cloud feedback: the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect technique, and the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique. In this paper we compare the two methods in a suite of climate models by considering the extent to which changes in Arctic sea ice impact the cloud feedbacks. From this analysis we conclude that the Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less affected by sea ice loss. We then apply the Cloud Radiative Kernel technique to data from the two most recent generations of global climate models to investigate how polar day Arctic cloud feedbacks have changed between these generations. We find that the median value of these Arctic feedbacks is slightly positive in the newest generation of models, a change from slightly negative in the previous generation that is largely fueled by a weakening of the feedback associated with changes in cloud optical depth. Key Points: The Cloud Radiative Kernel method is less sensitive to surface albedo changes than the Adjusted Cloud Radiative Effect techniqueThe Cloud Radiative Kernel method provides poor radiative closure in a suite of global climate modelsThe median shortwave Arctic cloud feedback in recent climate models is slightly positive due to a weakened cloud optical depth feedback [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP) during 3.3–3.0 Ma has been defined as a potential analog for future climate warming with atmospheric CO 2 concentration higher than the modern level. However, the migration of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rain belt during this period is still controversial, which hinders our understanding of the future environmental changes in China. Two periods, Pleistocene interglacials (with atmospheric CO 2 ∼280 ppmv) and mid-Pliocene (with atmospheric CO 2 ∼450 ppmv) were selected to study the changes of regional humidity and the EASM edge location as high CO 2 forcing. The results show a relatively drier and warmer climate prevails in the area and the edge of the EASM retreated eastward. Our study supports that the edge of the EASM will eastward retreat in the future and the CLP will get drier and warmer with increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration can be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]