Transformation and mechanisms of climate wet/dry change on the northern Tibetan Plateau under global warming: A perspective from paleoclimatology.

The northern Tibetan Plateau is a climatically sensitive zone influenced by monsoon and westerly winds. In summer, water vapor transport can reach Qinghai Lake and the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains; in winter, westerly winds mainly control the climate. This article compares the wet/dry changes in the region during the mid-Holocene (MH) warm period, the medieval climate anomaly (MCA), the current warm period (CWP), and the future warm period from the perspective of paleoclimate. We found that the MH warm period was mainly affected by the orbit-controlled East Asian summer monsoon, and the region showed warm and humid climate characteristics. The MCA was mainly controlled by solar radiation, and there was a warm and dry phenomenon. The CWP and the future warm period are mainly controlled by the rise in temperature caused by the increase in greenhouse gases, and the climate is becoming more arid. The wet/dry patterns in the CWP and the future warm period in the next century on the northern Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the MCA. Continued warming will lead to the expansion of the westerly belt and a gradually humid climate. The future wet/dry changes will be more similar to the MH warm period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]