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Background: Participatory approaches have become a widely applied research approach. Despite their popularity, there are many challenges associated with the evaluation of participatory projects. Here we describe an evaluation of a community-based participatory research study of underserved communities in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam at risk for hepatitis C virus. The goals of our evaluation were to explore the main benefits and challenges of implementing and participating in a participatory study and to describe study impacts., Methods: We conducted two meetings with leaders and members of the participating groups followed by in-depth interviews with 10 participants. We then held a dissemination meeting with over 70 participants, including the representatives of each group, researchers from non-governmental organizations (community-based, national and international), and govenrment officials from the Vietnam Ministry of Health and the Department of Health of HCMC., Results: Results include four categories where we describe first the participatory impacts, followed by the collaborative impacts. Then we describe the benefits and challenges of creating and belonging to one of the groups, from members' and leaders' points of view. Finally, we describe the key suggestions that participants provided for future research., Conclusion: In conclusion, the evaluation approach led to both a research reflection on the 'success' of the project and enabled participants themselves to reflect on the outcomes and benefits of the study from their point of view., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The top 20 highest burdened countries (in disability-adjusted life years) account for more than 75% of the global burden of viral hepatitis. An effective response in these 20 countries is crucial if global elimination targets are to be achieved. In this update of the Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission on accelerating the elimination of viral hepatitis, we convene national experts from each of the top 20 highest burdened countries to provide an update on progress. Although the global burden of diseases is falling, progress towards elimination varies greatly by country. By use of a hepatitis elimination policy index conceived as part of the 2019 Commission, we measure countries' progress towards elimination. Progress in elimination policy has been made in 14 of 20 countries with the highest burden since 2018, with the most substantial gains observed in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Japan, and Russia. Most improvements are attributable to the publication of formalised national action plans for the elimination of viral hepatitis, provision of publicly funded screening programmes, and government subsidisation of antiviral treatments. Key themes that emerged from discussion between national commissioners from the highest burdened countries build on the original recommendations to accelerate the global elimination of viral hepatitis. These themes include the need for simplified models of care, improved access to appropriate diagnostics, financing initiatives, and rapid implementation of lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests GSC is supported in part by the Biomedical Research Centre of Imperial College NHS Trust. In the last 36 months, IW has received grant funding from AbbVie, Arena, AstraZeneca, Novartis, and Pharco. JG has received funding from AbbVie, bioLytical, Camurus, Cepheid, Gilead, Hologic, and Indivior. YT has received funding from Fujirebio, Sysmex, AbbVie, GlaxoSmithKline, and Gilead Sciences. JVL acknowledges grants and speaker fees from AbbVie, Gilead Sciences, Merck Sharp and Dohme, and Roche Diagnostics to his institution; speaker fees from Echosens, Janssen, Novo Nordisk, and ViiV; consulting fees from GSK and Novavax; and support to ISGlobal (grant CEX2018-000806-S) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, and the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA programme, outside of the submitted work. DLT has provided expert testimony for Merck; has worked on diagnostics with Abbott. Through the Taskforce for Global Health, LH and JWW have received support for the Coalition for Global Hepatitis Elimination from governmental, philanthropic, individual, and industry partners (Abbott Laboratories, AbbVie, Cepheid, Gilead Sciences, Merck, Pharco, Roche Diagnostics, Siemens, VBI Vaccines, and Zydus-Cadila). DA-P has received payment from Viatris and Inogen Pharmaceutical for delivering presentations at conferences. ADM received AU$300 in 2021 to review a grant for the National Medical Research Council, Singapore. HC received lecture fees from Gilead Sciences. A portion of MAD's compensation comes from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Global Public Goods Grant through its funding of work done for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries & Risk Factors study. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Cryptococcal meningitis is a devastating brain infection cause by encapsulated yeasts of the Cryptococcus genus. Exposure, through inhalation, is likely universal by adulthood, but symptomatic infection only occurs in a minority, in most cases, months or years after exposure. Disease has been described in almost all tissues, but it is the organism's tropism for the central nervous system that results in the most devastating illness. While invasive disease can occur in the immunocompetent, the greatest burden by far is in immunocompromised individuals, particularly people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), organ transplant recipients and those on glucocorticoid therapy or other immunosuppressive drugs. Clinical presentation is variable, but diagnosis is usually straightforward, with cerebrospinal fluid microscopy, culture, and antigen testing proving significantly more sensitive than diagnostic tests for other brain infections. Although disease incidence has reduced since the advent of effective HIV therapy, mortality when disease occurs remains extremely high, and has changed little in recent decades. This Therapy in Practice review is an update of a talk first given by JND at the European Congress on Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in 2019 in the Netherlands. The review contextualizes the most recently published World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for the treatment of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in terms of the data from large, randomized, controlled trials published between 1997 and 2022. We discuss the rationale for induction and maintenance therapy and the efficacy and undesirable effects of the current therapeutic armamentarium of amphotericin, flucytosine and fluconazole. We address recent research into repurposed drugs such as sertraline and tamoxifen, and potential future treatment options, including the novel antifungals fosmanogepix, efungumab and oteseconazole, and non-pharmaceutical solutions such as neurapheresis cerebrospinal fluid filtration., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Innovative testing approaches and care pathways are required to meet global hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination goals. Routine blood-borne virus (BBV) testing in emergency departments (EDs) in high-prevalence areas is suggested by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) but there is limited evidence for this. Universal HIV testing in our ED according to UK guidance has been operational since 2015. We conducted a real-world service evaluation of a modified electronic patient record (EPR) system to include opportunistic opt-out HBV/reflex-HCV tests for any routine blood test orders for ED attendees aged ≥16 years. Reactive laboratory results were communicated directly to specialist clinical teams. Our model for contacting patients requiring linkage to care (new diagnoses/known but disengaged) evolved from initially primarily hospital-led to collaborating with regional health and community service networks. Over 11 months, 81,088 patients attended the ED; 36,865 (45.5%) had a blood test. Overall uptake for both HBV and HCV testing was 75%. Seroprevalence was 0.9% for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and 0.9% for HCV antigen (HCV-Ag). 79% of 140 successfully contacted HBsAg+patients required linkage to care, of which 87% engaged. 76% of 130 contactable HCV-Ag+patients required linkage, 52% engaged. Our results demonstrate effectiveness and sustainability of universal ED EPR opt-out HBV/HCV testing combined with comprehensive linkage to care pathways, allowing care provision particularly for marginalized at-risk groups with limited healthcare access. The findings support the ECDC BBV testing guidance and may inform future UK hepatitis testing guidance., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Viral Hepatitis published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Vietnam has one of the greatest disease burdens from chronic viral hepatitis. Comprehensive prevalence data are essential to support its elimination as a public health threat., Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1990 to 2021 for seroprevalence data relating to Hepatitis B (HBV), C (HCV) and D (HDV) in Vietnam. We estimated pooled prevalence with a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model and stratified study populations into i) low-risk ii) high-risk exposure and iii) liver disease. We further estimated prevalence by decade and region and rates of HIV-coinfection., Findings: We analysed 72 studies, including 120 HBV, 114 HCV and 23 HDV study populations. Pooled HBV prevalence was low in blood donors (1.86% [1.82-1.90]) but high in antenatal populations (10.8% [10.1-11.6]) and adults in the general population (10.5% [10.0-11.0]). It was similar or modestly increased in groups at highest risk of exposure, suggesting the epidemic is largely driven by chronic infections acquired in childhood. HCV pooled prevalence in the general population was lower than historical estimates: 0.26% (0.09-0.51) have active infection defined by detectable antigen or HCV RNA. In contrast, there is an extremely high prevalence of active HCV infection in people who inject drugs (PWID) (57.8% [56.5-59.1]), which has persisted through the decades despite harm-reduction interventions. HDV appears mainly confined to high-risk groups., Interpretation: Blood safety has improved, but renewed focus on HBV vaccination at birth and targeted HCV screening and treatment of PWID are urgently required to meet elimination targets. Large cross-sectional studies are needed to better characterize HDV prevalence, but mass screening may not be warranted., Funding: This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors., Competing Interests: No conflicts declared, (© 2022 The Authors.)

Accurate and sensitive detection of antibody to SARS-CoV-2 remains an essential component of the pandemic response. Measuring antibody that predicts neutralising activity and the vaccine response is an absolute requirement for laboratory-based confirmatory and reference activity. The viral receptor binding domain (RBD) constitutes the prime target antigen for neutralising antibody. A double antigen binding assay (DABA), providing the most sensitive format has been exploited in a novel hybrid manner employing a solid-phase S1 preferentially presenting RBD, coupled with a labelled RBD conjugate, used in a two-step sequential assay for detection and measurement of antibody to RBD (anti-RBD). This class and species neutral assay showed a specificity of 100 % on 825 pre COVID-19 samples and a potential sensitivity of 99.6 % on 276 recovery samples, predicting quantitatively the presence of neutralising antibody determined by pseudo-type neutralization and by plaque reduction. Anti-RBD is also measurable in ferrets immunised with ChadOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and in humans immunised with both AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. This assay detects anti-RBD at presentation with illness, demonstrates its elevation with disease severity, its sequel to asymptomatic infection and its persistence after the loss of antibody to the nucleoprotein (anti-NP). It also provides serological confirmation of prior infection and offers a secure measure for seroprevalence and studies of vaccine immunisation in human and animal populations. The hybrid DABA also displays the attributes necessary for the detection and quantification of anti-RBD to be used in clinical practice. An absence of detectable anti-RBD by this assay predicates the need for passive immune prophylaxis in at-risk patients., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Population antibody surveillance helps track immune responses to COVID-19 vaccinations at scale, and identify host factors that may affect antibody production. We analyse data from 212,102 vaccinated individuals within the REACT-2 programme in England, which uses self-administered lateral flow antibody tests in sequential cross-sectional community samples; 71,923 (33.9%) received at least one dose of BNT162b2 vaccine and 139,067 (65.6%) received ChAdOx1. For both vaccines, antibody positivity peaks 4-5 weeks after first dose and then declines. At least 21 days after second dose of BNT162b2, close to 100% of respondents test positive, while for ChAdOx1, this is significantly reduced, particularly in the oldest age groups (72.7% [70.9-74.4] at ages 75 years and above). For both vaccines, antibody positivity decreases with age, and is higher in females and those with previous infection. Antibody positivity is lower in transplant recipients, obese individuals, smokers and those with specific comorbidities. These groups will benefit from additional vaccine doses., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

At-home sampling is key to large scale seroprevalence studies. Dried blood spot (DBS) self-sampling removes the need for medical personnel for specimen collection but facilitates specimen referral to an appropriately accredited laboratory for accurate sample analysis. To establish a highly sensitive and specific antibody assay that would facilitate self-sampling for prevalence and vaccine-response studies. Paired sera and DBS eluates collected from 439 sero-positive, 382 sero-negative individuals and DBS from 34 vaccine recipients were assayed by capture ELISAs for IgG and IgM antibody to SARS-CoV-2. IgG and IgM combined on DBS eluates achieved a diagnostic sensitivity of 97.9% (95%CI 96.6 to 99.3) and a specificity of 99.2% (95% CI 98.4 to 100) compared to serum, displaying limits of detection equivalent to 23 and 10 WHO IU/ml, respectively. A strong correlation (r = 0.81) was observed between serum and DBS reactivities. Reactivity remained stable with samples deliberately rendered inadequate, (p = 0.234) and when samples were accidentally damaged or 'invalid'. All vaccine recipients were sero-positive. This assay provides a secure method for self-sampling by DBS with a sensitivity comparable to serum. The feasibility of DBS testing in sero-prevalence studies and in monitoring post-vaccine responses was confirmed, offering a robust and reliable tool for serological monitoring at a population level., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Genotype 6 is the most genetically diverse lineage of hepatitis C virus, and it predominates in Vietnam. It can be treated with sofosbuvir with daclatasvir (SOF/DCV), the least expensive treatment combination globally. In regional guidelines, longer treatment durations of SOF/DCV (24 weeks) are recommended for cirrhotic individuals, compared with other pangenotypic regimens (12 weeks), based on sparse data. Early on-treatment virological response may offer means of reducing length and cost of therapy in patients with liver fibrosis., Methods: In this prospective trial in Vietnam, genotype 6-infected adults with advanced liver fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis were treated with SOF/DCV. Day 14 viral load was used to guide duration of therapy: participants with viral load <500 IU/mL at day 14 were treated with 12 weeks of SOF/DCV and those ≥500 IU/mL received 24 weeks. Primary endpoint was sustained virological response (SVR)., Results: Of 41 individuals with advanced fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis who commenced treatment, 51% had genotype 6a and 34% had 6e. The remainder had 6h, 6k, 6l, or 6o. One hundred percent had viral load <500 IU/mL by day 14, meaning that all received 12 weeks of SOF/DCV. One hundred percent achieved SVR12 despite a high frequency of putative NS5A inhibitor resistance-associated substitutions at baseline., Conclusions: Prescribing 12 weeks of SOF/DCV results in excellent cure rates in this population. These data support the removal of costly genotyping in countries where genotype 3 prevalence is <5%, in keeping with World Health Organization guidelines. NS5A resistance-associated mutations in isolation do not affect efficacy of SOF/DCV therapy. Wider evaluation of response-guided therapy is warranted., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: This study assesses acceptability and usability of home-based self-testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies using lateral flow immunoassays (LFIA)., Methods: We carried out public involvement and pilot testing in 315 volunteers to improve usability. Feedback was obtained through online discussions, questionnaires, observations, and interviews of people who tried the test at home. This informed the design of a nationally representative survey of adults in England using two LFIAs (LFIA1 and LFIA2) which were sent to 10 600 and 3800 participants, respectively, who provided further feedback., Results: Public involvement and pilot testing showed high levels of acceptability, but limitations with the usability of kits. Most people reported completing the test; however, they identified difficulties with practical aspects of the kit, particularly the lancet and pipette, a need for clearer instructions and more guidance on interpretation of results. In the national study, 99.3% (8693/8754) of LFIA1 and 98.4% (2911/2957) of LFIA2 respondents attempted the test and 97.5% and 97.8% of respondents completed it, respectively. Most found the instructions easy to understand, but some reported difficulties using the pipette (LFIA1: 17.7%) and applying the blood drop to the cassette (LFIA2: 31.3%). Most respondents obtained a valid result (LFIA1: 91.5%; LFIA2: 94.4%). Overall there was substantial concordance between participant and clinician interpreted results (kappa: LFIA1 0.72; LFIA2 0.89)., Conclusions: Impactful public involvement is feasible in a rapid response setting. Home self-testing with LFIAs can be used with a high degree of acceptability and usability by adults, making them a good option for use in seroprevalence surveys., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: The time-concentrated nature of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England in March and April 2020 provides a natural experiment to measure changes in antibody positivity at the population level before onset of the second wave and initiation of the vaccination programme., Methods: Three cross-sectional national surveys with non-overlapping random samples of the population in England undertaken between late June and September 2020 (REACT-2 study). 365,104 adults completed questionnaires and self-administered lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) tests for IgG against SARS-CoV-2., Findings: Overall, 17,576 people had detectable antibodies, a prevalence of 4.9% (95% confidence intervals 4.9, 5.0) when adjusted for test characteristics and weighted to the adult population of England. The prevalence declined from 6.0% (5.8, 6.1), to 4.8% (4.7, 5.0) and 4.4% (4.3, 4.5), over the three rounds of the study a difference of -26.5% (-29.0, -23.8). The highest prevalence and smallest overall decline in positivity was in the youngest age group (18-24 years) at -14.9% (-21.6, -8.1), and lowest prevalence and largest decline in the oldest group (>74 years) at -39.0% (-50.8, -27.2). The decline from June to September 2020 was largest in those who did not report a history of COVID-19 at -64.0% (-75.6, -52.3), compared to -22.3% (-27.0, -17.7) in those with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed on PCR., Interpretation: A large proportion of the population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in England based on naturally acquired immunity from the first wave. Widespread vaccination is needed to confer immunity and control the epidemic at population level., Funding: This work was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care in England., Competing Interests: CAD reports grants from UK Medical Research Council, grants from UK NIHR, during the conduct of the study; HW and PE report grants from the Department of Health and Social Care during the conduct of this study. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Background: Access to rapid diagnosis is key to the control and management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Laboratory RT-PCR testing is the current standard of care but usually requires a centralised laboratory and significant infrastructure. We describe our diagnostic accuracy assessment of a novel, rapid point-of-care real time RT-PCR CovidNudge test, which requires no laboratory handling or sample pre-processing., Methods: Between April and May, 2020, we obtained two nasopharyngeal swab samples from individuals in three hospitals in London and Oxford (UK). Samples were collected from three groups: self-referred health-care workers with suspected COVID-19; patients attending emergency departments with suspected COVID-19; and hospital inpatient admissions with or without suspected COVID-19. For the CovidNudge test, nasopharyngeal swabs were inserted directly into a cartridge which contains all reagents and components required for RT-PCR reactions, including multiple technical replicates of seven SARS-CoV-2 gene targets ( rdrp1, rdrp2, e -gene, n -gene, n1, n2 and n3) and human ribonuclease P ( RNaseP ) as sample adequacy control. Swab samples were tested in parallel using the CovidNudge platform, and with standard laboratory RT-PCR using swabs in viral transport medium for processing in a central laboratory. The primary analysis was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the point-of-care CovidNudge test with laboratory-based testing., Findings: We obtained 386 paired samples: 280 (73%) from self-referred health-care workers, 15 (4%) from patients in the emergency department, and 91 (23%) hospital inpatient admissions. Of the 386 paired samples, 67 tested positive on the CovidNudge point-of-care platform and 71 with standard laboratory RT-PCR. The overall sensitivity of the point-of-care test compared with laboratory-based testing was 94% (95% CI 86-98) with an overall specificity of 100% (99-100). The sensitivity of the test varied by group (self-referred healthcare workers 94% [95% CI 85-98]; patients in the emergency department 100% [48-100]; and hospital inpatient admissions 100% [29-100]). Specificity was consistent between groups (self-referred health-care workers 100% [95% CI 98-100]; patients in the emergency department 100% [69-100]; and hospital inpatient admissions 100% [96-100]). Point of care testing performance was similar during a period of high background prevalence of laboratory positive tests (25% [95% 20-31] in April, 2020) and low prevalence (3% [95% 1-9] in inpatient screening). Amplification of viral nucleocapsid (n1, n2, and n3) and envelope protein gene (e-gene) were most sensitive for detection of spiked SARS-CoV-2 RNA., Interpretation: The CovidNudge platform was a sensitive, specific, and rapid point of care test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 without laboratory handling or sample pre-processing. The device, which has been implemented in UK hospitals since May, 2020, could enable rapid decisions for clinical care and testing programmes., Funding: National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance at Oxford University in partnership with Public Health England, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre Oxford, and DnaNudge., (© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.)

Background: Injectable interferon-based therapies have been used to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection since 1991. International guidelines have now moved away from interferon-based therapy towards direct-acting antiviral (DAA) tablet regimens, because of their superior efficacy, excellent side-effect profiles, and ease of administration. Initially DAA drugs were prohibitively expensive for most healthcare systems. Access is now improving through the procurement of low-cost, generic DAAs acquired through voluntary licenses. However, HCV treatment costs vary widely, and many countries are struggling with DAA treatment scale-up. This is not helped by the limited cost data and economic evaluations from low- and middle-income countries to support HCV policy decisions. We conducted a detailed analysis of the costs of treating chronic HCV infection with interferon-based therapy in Vietnam. Understanding these costs is important for performing necessary economic evaluations of novel treatment strategies. Methods: We conducted an analysis of the direct medical costs of treating HCV infection with interferon alpha (IFN) and pegylated-interferon alpha (Peg-IFN), in combination with ribavirin, from the health sector perspective at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, in 2017. Results: The total cost of the IFN treatment regimen was estimated to range between US$1,120 and US$1,962. The total cost of the Peg-IFN treatment regimen was between US$2,156 and US$5,887. Drug expenses were the biggest contributor to the total treatment cost (54-89%) and were much higher for the Peg-IFN regimen. Conclusions: We found that treating HCV with IFN or Peg-IFN resulted in significant direct medical costs. Of concern, we found that all patients incurred substantial out-of-pocket costs, including those receiving the maximum level of support from the national health insurance programme. This cost data highlights the potential savings and importance of increased access to generic DAAs in low- and middle-income countries and will be useful within future economic evaluations., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2020 Nguyen HA et al.)

The mitogen-activated protein kinase-interacting kinases 1 and 2 (MNK1 and MNK2) phosphorylate eukaryotic initiation factor 4E (eIF4E) and play important roles in promoting tumorigenesis and metabolic disease. Thus, inhibiting these enzymes might be valuable in the treatment of such conditions. We designed and synthesized a series of 4-((4-fluoro-2-isopropoxyphenyl)amino)-5-methylthieno[2,3-d]pyrimidine derivatives, and evaluated their inhibitory activity against the MNKs. We found 15 compounds that were active as MNK inhibitors and that one in particular, designated MNK-7g, which was potent against MNK1 and substantially more potent against MNK2. The compound MNK-7g did not affect other signaling pathways tested and had no adverse effects on cell viability. As expected from earlier studies, MNK-7g also inhibited cell migration. Therefore, the compound MNK-7g, which forms an ionic bond with Asp226 in MNK2 and possesses a substituted aniline in a thieno[2,3-d] pyrimidine structure, is a promising starting point for the future development of novel drugs for treating or managing cancer and metabolic disease., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.)

Spectral analyses of an uninterrupted 5.5-million-year (My)-long chronology of late Oligocene-early Miocene climate and ocean carbon chemistry from two deep-sea cores recovered in the western equatorial Atlantic reveal variance concentrated at all Milankovitch frequencies. Exceptional spectral power in climate is recorded at the 406-thousand-year (ky) period eccentricity band over a 3.4-million-year period [20 to 23.4 My ago (Ma)] as well as in the 125- and 95-ky bands over a 1.3-million-year period (21.7 to 23.0 Ma) of suspected low greenhouse gas levels. Moreover, a major transient glaciation at the epoch boundary ( approximately 23 Ma), Mi-1, corresponds with a rare orbital congruence involving obliquity and eccentricity. The anomaly, which consists of low-amplitude variance in obliquity (a node) and a minimum in eccentricity, results in an extended period ( approximately 200 ky) of low seasonality orbits favorable to ice-sheet expansion on Antarctica.

We investigate the effectiveness of a financial time-series forecasting strategy which exploits the multiresolution property of the wavelet transform. A financial series is decomposed into an over complete, shift invariant scale-related representation. In transform space, each individual wavelet series is modeled by a separate multilayer perceptron (MLP). We apply the Bayesian method of automatic relevance determination to choose short past windows (short-term history) for the inputs to the MLPs at lower scales and long past windows (long-term history) at higher scales. To form the overall forecast, the individual forecasts are then recombined by the linear reconstruction property of the inverse transform with the chosen autocorrelation shell representation, or by another perceptron which learns the weight of each scale in the prediction of the original time series. The forecast results are then passed to a money management system to generate trades.

Previous work on analog VLSI implementation of multilayer perceptrons with on-chip learning has mainly targeted the implementation of algorithms like backpropagation. Although backpropagation is efficient, its implementation in analog VLSI requires excessive computational hardware. In this paper we show that, for analog parallel implementations, the use of gradient descent with direct approximation of the gradient using "weight perturbation" instead of backpropagation significantly reduces hardware complexity. Gradient descent by weight perturbation eliminates the need for derivative and bidirectional circuits for on-chip learning, and access to the output states of neurons in hidden layers for off-chip learning. We also show that weight perturbation can be used to implement recurrent networks. A discrete level analog implementation showing the training of an XOR network as an example is described.