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The article discusses the controversy over infinite growth. It analyzes the two dominant perspectives on economic growth and finds them based on a limited and subjective view of reality. An examination of the principal aspects of economic growth - economic activity, value, and value creation - helps to understand what fuels economic growth. The article also discusses the correlations between production, consumption, as well as resources and population dynamics. The article finds that infinite and exponential economic growth is essential for the survival (conservation) of our economy and civilization.

Studie zur Verteilungswirkung des Klimawandels bei Unterlassung weiterer Klimaschutzmaßnahmen. Die derzeitig implementierten Klimaschutzmaßnahmen reichen nicht aus, um das 1,5°C-Ziel zu erreichen. Adaptionsmaßnahmen würden Verteilungswirkungen erzeugen, die gerade vulnerable Gruppen stark belasten. Im Rahmen dieser Studie werden daher die Folgen des Klimawandels in den Bedürfnisfeldern Wohnen, Ernährung und Landwirtschaft, Verkehr und Mobilität sowie Gesundheit untersucht., Study on the distributional effects of climate change if further climate protection measures are not taken. The currently implemented climate protection measures are not sufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C target. Adaptation measures would produce distribution effects that put a heavy burden on vulnerable groups in particular. As part of this study, the consequences of climate change in the areas of need of housing, nutrition and agriculture, transport and mobility, and health are examined.

Population aging is an inevitable global demographic process. Most of the literature on the consequences of demographic change focuses on the economic and societal challenges that we will face as people live longer and have fewer children. In this paper, we (a) briefly describe key trends and projections of the magnitude and speed of population aging; (b) discuss the economic, social, and environmental consequences of population aging; and (c) investigate some of the opportunities that aging societies create. We use Germany as a case study. However, the general insights that we obtain can be generalized to other developed countries. We argue that there may be positive unintended side effects of population aging that can be leveraged to address pressing environmental problems and issues of gender inequality and intergenerational ties.

Beginnend mit dem Sturm Herwart Ende Oktober 2017 setzte eine Katastrophe ein, die die Waldflächen der Stadt Osterode am Harz (1200 ha) schwer geschädigt hat. Infolge von Sturmwurf, Niederschlagsmangel, Hitze und daraus folgender Borkenkäfermassenvermehrung drohen Fichte und Buche als Hauptbaumarten komplett auszufallen. Für die Waldstadt Osterode (Heinrich Heine: … wie eine Rose im Moose …) bedeutet das weniger Einnahmen aus der Bewirtschaftung des Waldes bei stark erhöhtem Aufwand für die Waldverjüngung, Gefahren für die Trinkwasserversorgung, Erosionsgefährdung, Veränderungen im ökologischen System, Verschlechterung des Kleinklimas in der Stadt und ihrer Umgebung, sowie eine Verminderung der Erholungswirkung für Bürger und Touristen. Vordringliche Zukunftsaufgabe für Jahrzehnte ist nun die Begründung von Waldbeständen, damit diese trotz fortschreitenden Klimawandels ihre vielfältigen und nicht nur für die Menschen lebenswichtigen Funktionen erfüllen können.

While quality of life (QOL) is the result of satisfying human needs, our current provision strategies result in global environmental degradation. To ensure sustainable QOL, we need to understand the environmental impact of human needs satisfaction. In this paper we deconstruct QOL, and apply the fundamental human needs framework developed by Max-Neef et al to calculate the carbon and energy footprints of subsistence, protection, creation, freedom, leisure, identity, understanding and participation. We find that half of global carbon emissions are driven by subsistence and protection. A similar amount are due to freedom, identity, creation and leisure together, whereas understanding and participation jointly account for less than 4% of global emissions. We use 35 objective and subjective indicators to evaluate human needs satisfaction and their associated carbon footprints across nations. We find that the relationship between QOL and environmental impact is more complex than previously identified through aggregated or single indicators. Satisfying needs such as protection, identity and leisure is generally not correlated with their corresponding footprints. In contrast, the likelihood of satisfying needs for understanding, creation, participation and freedom, increases steeply when moving from low to moderate emissions, and then stagnates. Most objective indicators show a threshold trend with respect to footprints, but most subjective indicators show no relationship, except for freedom and creation. Our study signals the importance of considering both subjective and objective satisfaction to assess QOL-impact relationships at the needs level. In this way, resources could be strategically invested where they strongly relate to social outcomes, and spared where non-consumption satisfiers could be more effective. Through this approach, decoupling human needs satisfaction from environmental damage becomes more attainable.

In the present article we investigate the geography and magnitude of the climate footprint of long-distance travel with Brussels, Belgium, as a destination. The internationally networked position of this city goes hand in hand with a strong dependence on international mobility, which largely materializes in impressive volumes of long-distance travel and associated consumption of important amounts of fossil fuel. Despite a surge in concerns about global warming, the climate footprint of most international travel, notably air travel, is not included in the official national and regional climate inventories, or in other words, it is not territorialized. The official climate footprint of the Brussels-Capital Region attained 3.7 Mton CO2eq per year (in 2017). Based on our exploratory calculations, however, the total estimated climate footprint of all Brussels-bound international travel equalled an additional 2.7 Mton CO2eq. In terms of geographical distribution, over 70% of international travellers to Brussels come from Europe, while these represent only 15% of the climate footprint of all international travel to Brussels. We conclude that the practice of not allocating emissions caused by international travel to territorial units has kept the magnitude and complexity of this problem largely under the radar and contributes to the lack of societal support for curbing growth of international aviation.

Every sector needs to minimize GHG emissions to limit climate change. Emissions from transport, however, have remained mostly unchanged over the past thirty years. In particular, air travel for short-haul flights is a significant contributor to transport emissions. This article identifies factors that influence the demand for domestic air travel. An agent-based model was implemented for domestic travel in Germany to test policies that could be implemented to reduce air travel and CO2 emissions. The agent-based long-distance travel demand model is composed of trip generation, destination choice, mode choice and CO2 emission modules. The travel demand model was estimated and calibrated with the German Household Travel Survey, including socio-demographic characteristics and area type. Long-distance trips were differentiated by trip type (daytrip, overnight trip), trip purpose (business, leisure, private) and mode (auto, air, long-distance rail and long-distance bus). Emission factors by mode were used to calculate CO2 emissions. Potential strategies and policies to reduce air travel demand and its CO2 emissions are tested using this model. An increase in airfares reduced the number of air trips and reduced transport emissions. Even stronger effects were found with a policy that restricts air travel to trips that are longer than a certain threshold distance. While such policies might be difficult to implement politically, restricting air travel has the potential to reduce total CO2 emissions from transport by 7.5%.

Cities across the world are changing rapidly. Driven by population growth, migration, economic decline in rural areas, political instabilities, and even more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic, urban systems and spaces are changing to accommodate moving people and new functions. In many cases, these trends contribute to increased levels of inequality, poverty, food insecurity, and unemployment, while the warnings about the impact of climate change continue to raise concerns. Though some have called this a new urban revolution, others have referred to, in a more apocalyptic turn, the end of cities. In response, many writers are encouraging smarter cities, whereas others are promoting a post-urban context and a return to small communities. High levels of uncertainty are characteristic, along with increased intensities of complexity, rapid fluctuation and unbounded experimentation. This raises many questions about the nature and implication of change in different cities situated in vastly contrasting contexts. This thematic issue of Urban Planning focuses on five narratives from cities across the world to illustrate various drivers of change and their implications for urban design and planning. The editorial introduces these narratives, as well as commentaries from leading academics/practitioners and highlights several divergent experiences and common threats. It argues that to deal with the rapid and often large-scale changes, planners need to view human settlements as socio-ecological systems and plan for change and uncertainty to facilitate the co-evolution of humans and nature.

Residents of urban areas, and particularly urban cores, have higher levels of long-distance travel activity and related emissions, mostly on account of greater frequency of air travel. This relationship typically remains after controlling for basic socio-economic correlates of long-distance travel. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about what causes this association, and whether it calls into question urban densification strategies. Understanding this is important from a climate policy perspective. In this article, we investigate the role of three factors: i) access to airports; ii) the concentration of people with migration background and/or geographically dispersed social networks in urban areas; and iii) greater air travel by urban residents without cars ('rebound effect'). We use representative survey data for the UK including information on respondents’ air travel frequency for private purposes and derive estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. The dataset also includes detailed information on migration generation, residential location of close family and friends, car ownership and use, as well as low-level geographical identifiers. The findings of regression analysis show that Greater London residents stand out in terms of emissions from air travel. Airport accessibility, migration background, and dispersion of social networks each explain part of this association, whereas we find no evidence of a rebound effect. However, proximity to town centres remains associated with higher emissions after accounting for these issues, indicating that this association is due to other factors than those considered here. We conclude by discussing implications for urban and climate policy, as well as future research.

A compact urban form has shown many benefits in efficiency. Yet multiple studies have found that residents of urban, dense, and centrally located areas travel more frequently than those living in suburbs, small towns, or the countryside. As air travel is already causing more emissions than ground transport in many affluent urban locations and is predicted to increase, this pattern could undermine efforts in climate change mitigation. Explanations of these patterns and motivations for long-distance travel connected to the built environment have been examined quantitatively before, but with inconclusive answers. We studied this topic qualitatively in Reykjavik, Iceland, offering an in-depth perspective through semi-structured interviews. Results showed various links between the urban environment and long-distance travel. Some indications of compensatory travel behavior emerged, particularly connected to a lack of quality green areas, hectic urban life, and commuting stress. Compensatory trips were typically domestic. Furthermore, residential preferences seemed connected to leisure travel preferences - living in green neighborhoods was connected to more domestic travel to nature. The results show there are more factors for 'escape' trips than urban density and lack of green spaces. Examples of car-free lifestyles hindering domestic leisure travel were also found. Our study shows how a qualitative approach offers nuanced insight into the travel motivations of urbanites. Considering our results and travel motivation literature, the compensation hypothesis appears to be an overly narrow theoretical framing. Our study supports the conclusion that planning policies should aim at reducing car-dependence. Further research is needed for specific policy recommendations.

Geneva prides itself on being an international city, home to the United Nations and international organizations. The airport plays an important role in this image, tied to a quest for hypermobility in an increasingly globalized society. Yet, mobility accounts for close to one quarter of the territory’s carbon emissions, with flights responsible for 70% of these emissions. With recent legislation that includes ambitious targets for net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the role of air travel can no longer be ignored. In 2020, a partnership was formed between the City, the University of Geneva, and a community energy association to explore the possibility of co-designing a city-wide change initiative, focused on reducing flights through voluntary measures. The team consulted with a variety of actors, from citizens who fly for leisure, to those who fly for professional reasons, with a spotlight on academic travel. A review of the scientific and grey literature revealed what initiatives already exist, leading to a typology of change initiatives. Inspired by this process, we then co-designed a series of workshops on opportunities for flying less in Geneva. We demonstrate the value of going beyond an ‘individual behaviour change’ approach towards understanding change as embedded in socio-material arrangements, as well as identifying interventions that seek to address both negative and positive anticipated outcomes. We conclude with insights on how a social practice approach to understanding mobility reveals both material and immaterial challenges and opportunities, involving infrastructures and technologies, but also social norms and shared meanings.

2019 was Earth's second warmest year since 1850. In 2019 the global mean temperature was cooler than in 2016, but warmer than any other year explicitly measured. Consequently, 2016 is still the warmest year in historical observation history. Year-to-year rankings are likely to reflect natural fluctuations in the short term, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term global warming trend. This would be predicted from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, temperature increase across the globe is broadly spread, impacting almost all areas of land and oceans. "Climate change" and "global warming" are often used interchangeably but are of distinct significance. Global warming is the long-term heating of the Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period as a result of human activities, mainly the combustion of fossil fuel, which raises the heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's air. The term is often used interchangeably with the term climate change, as the latter applies to warming caused both humanly and naturally, and the impact it has on our planet. This is most generally calculated as the average increase in global surface temperature on Earth. Carbon dioxide emission is one of the main reasons for global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing. Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. In our research, let's examine the relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide emissions and the GDP/capita in developed and developing countries.

Die Stellungnahme wurde anlässlich der öffentliche Anhörung zum Thema "Menschenrechte und Klimakrise" im Ausschuss für Menschenrechte und humanitäre Hilfe des Bundestages am 19. Mai 2021 erstellt. Sie umfasst Ausführungen zu den in der Anhörung erörterten Fragestellungen, u. a. zu Klimawandel als Konflikttreiber, menschenrechtskonforme Klimapolitik, klimabedingte Migration, Verantwortung für klimabedingte Schäden und Verluste, sowie zu der Bedeutung des menschenrechtlichen Aspekts des Klimawandels in der multilateralen und der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Die Stellungnahme zeigt die enge Verflechtungen zwischen Menschenrechtsschutz und Klimawandel auf und gibt Empfehlungen wie Deutschland den Menschenrechtsschutz im Klimabereich konkret stärken kann.

Der Meeresspiegel steigt immer schneller an. Für Küsten- und Inselstaaten hat dies zur Folge, dass sich ihr Küstenmeer, ihre ausschließliche Wirtschaftszone und gegebenenfalls die äußere Grenze ihres Festlandsockels kontinuierlich weiter in Richtung Land verschieben. Viele Staaten werden dadurch in erheblichem Umfang Seegebiete ver­lieren, in denen sie bislang Hoheitsbefugnisse und souveräne Nutzungsrechte ausgeübt haben und die für sie wirtschaftlich äußerst wichtig sind. Im Zuge dessen können auch Streitigkeiten über zwischenstaatliche Seegrenzen entstehen. Deswegen wächst die Gefahr von Konflikten, und es droht eine Destabilisierung der maritimen Ordnung. Um dem entgegenzuwirken, muss das Seevölkerrecht in einem zentralen Punkt nachjustiert werden. Bislang gilt nämlich das Prinzip, dass die für die seewärtige Ausdehnung der Meereszonen maßgeblichen Basislinien beweglich sind und sich in ihrem Verlauf den natürlichen Gegebenheiten anpassen. Immer mehr Küsten- und Inselstaaten versuchen zwar, ihre Basislinien und die Grenzen ihrer Meereszonen auf formellem Wege dauerhaft zu fixieren. Im Seerechtsübereinkommen der Vereinten Nationen findet sich dafür aber keine Grundlage. Die beste Lösung bestände darin, das Übereinkommen anzupassen. Selbst wenn dies nicht gelingt, könnte die Praxis der Staaten im Hinblick auf die Fixierung von Basis­linien und Meereszonen dazu führen, dass sich entsprechende Regeln hierfür im Völkergewohnheitsrecht herausbilden. (Autorenreferat)

Ecological deprivation indices at the level of spatial units are often used to measure and monitor inequalities in health despite the possibility of ecological fallacy. For the purpose of this study, the European Deprivation Index (EDI) was used, which is based on Townsend theorization of relative deprivation. The Slovenian version of EDI (SI-EDI) at the aggregated level (SI-EDI-A) was calculated to the level of the national assembly polling stations. The SI-EDI was also calculated at the individual level (SI-EDI-I) by the method that represents a methodological innovation. The degree of ecological fallacy was estimated with the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. By calculating the area under the ROC curve, the ecological fallacy was evaluated numerically. Agreement between measuring deprivation with SI-EDI-A and SI-EDI-I was analysed by graphical methods and formal testing. The association of the socio-economic status and the cancer risk was analysed in all first cancer cases diagnosed in Slovenia at age 16 and older in the period 2011-2013. Analysis was done for each level separately, for SI-EDI-I and for SI-EDI-A. The Poisson regression model was implemented in both settings but adapted specifically for aggregated and individual data. The study clearly shows that ecological fallacy is unavoidable. However, although the association of cancer incidence and socio-economic deprivation at individual and aggregated levels was not the same for all cancer sites, the results were very similar for the majority of investigated cancer sites and especially for cancers associated with unhealthy lifestyles. The results confirm the assumptions from authors' previous research that using the level of the national assembly polling stations would be the acceptable way to aggregate data when explaining inequalities in health in Slovenia in ecological studies.

Background: Worldwide, roughly 80% of adolescents fail to meet World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations regarding physical activity, though there is substantial variation in adolescent physical activity prevalence across countries. This study explored whether country-level environmental differences explained cross-national variation in adolescent moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and vigorous-intensity activity (VPA). Method: Using the data of 138,014 11- to 15-year-olds from 29 European countries in the 2013/2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study, multilevel regression models examined the influence of four types of country-level environmental factors (physical, socio-cultural, economic, and political) on self-reported individual-level physical activity (MVPA and VPA). Results: The environmental variables explained 38% of country-level variance in MVPA and 81% of country-level variance in VPA. Lower annual average national temperature, higher community safety, lower average national household income and a weaker physical education policy were significantly associated with more MVPA. Greater urbanisation, lower annual average national temperature, higher adult physical activity and higher average national household income were significantly associated with more VPA. Conclusions: The findings showed that national differences in the physical, socio-cultural and economic environment were related to adolescent physical activity. They point to potential avenues for future research looking at interactions between individual and environmental factors.

Der Wandel zu einer "bio-basierten" Wirtschaft, wie er in nationalen und internationalen Bioökonomie-Strategien propagiert wird, kann nur mit tiefgreifenden Veränderungen landwirtschaftlicher Systeme zur Steigerung der Agrarproduktion einhergehen. Besonders in Ländern des Globalen Südens gingen solche Prozesse jedoch meist mit unbeabsichtigten - oder in Kauf genommenen - negativen Konsequenzen wie Umweltdegradation oder die Verschärfung gesellschaftlicher Ungleichheiten einher. Dennoch finden die Kenntnisse über die Risiken bisheriger landwirtschaftlicher Interventionen kaum in politischen Bioökonomie-Strategien Berücksichtigung, die auf wirtschaftlich-technische Lösungen einer "nachhaltigen" Intensivierung durch agrartechnologische Innovationen auf der einen, und eine Ausweitung von Produktionsflächen auf der anderen Seite setzen. Wie diese Produktionssteigerungen ökologisch und sozial nachhaltig gestaltet werden sollen, bleibt unklar, und bisherige Erfahrungen mit derartigen Interventionen lassen eher das Gegenteil befürchten. Anhand von zwei historischen Beispielen - der Grünen Revolution im Punjab Pakistans und der Neulandkampagne in Kasachstan - skizziert der Beitrag die vielschichtigen sozialen und ökologischen Folgen bisheriger, großangelegter landwirtschaftlicher Interventionen zur Produktionssteigerung und geht der Frage nach, inwiefern diese Erfahrungen (besser) in Bioökonomie-Strategien Berücksichtigung finden (können). Kritische Reflektion sollte dabei vor allem die Rolle institutioneller Pfadabhängigkeiten in der Gestaltung aktueller und zukünftiger Entwicklungen erfahren. Wie bisherige Erfahrungen im Landwirtschaftssektor deutlich machen, müssen Bioökonomie-Strategien ihren geforderten systemischen Ansatz ernst nehmen - was impliziert, dass technologie- und produktivitätsorientierte Ziele stets sozialen und ökologischen Zielen untergeordnet werden müssen., The "transformation" to a bio-based economy as propagated in international and national bioeconomy strategies implies profound changes in agricultural systems to increase production. In countries of the Global South, however, such processes have usually been accompanied by unintended - or deliberately accepted - negative consequences, such as environmental degradation or a widening of social inequalities. Yet, existing knowledge about the risks of agricultural interventions is hardly considered in bioeconomy strategies, which, on the one hand, focus on economic and technical approaches to "sustainable" intensification through agro-technological innovations, and, on the other hand, an expansion of production areas. These strategies lack any plausible ideas on how production increases can be made ecologically and socially sustainable, and previous experience with agrarian interventions give reasons for concern. Using two historical examples - the Green Revolution in the Punjab of Pakistan and the Virgin Lands Campaign in Kazakhstan - this article outlines the complex social and ecological consequences of large-scale agricultural interventions to increase production and examines the extent to which these experiences can (and should) be taken into account in bioeconomy strategies. In this context, the role of institutional path-dependencies in shaping present and future developments should be critically reflected on. As past experience in the agricultural sector has shown, bioeconomy strategies must take their claimed "systemic" approach seriously, which implies that technology and productivity-oriented goals must always be subordinated to social and ecological goals.

Compared to issues related to the economy, politics, social or military concerns, attempts to preserve ecology and the natural environment have a relatively short history. Anthropogenic environmental changes in many cases have a direct impact on one's quality of life and the functioning of urban centers, states and communities. Pressure exerted by human economic activity on the environment is demonstrated, above all, by reductions in air, water, and soil quality, worse acoustic climate, and limited access to green spaces. The most detrimental undertakings have a negative impact on the level of ecological security in cities are transport, domestic heating of buildings, industrial activities, and heating processes. The main goal of this paper is to identify the perception of the ecological security of the residents of the biggest urban centers. Urban environment security is a very broad issue. It covers both natural phenomena, where human impact is minimal, levels of urban sustainable development and attitudes of the city dwellers. Recently, citizen awareness of the importance of environmental challenges in Polish cities’ development has surged, including awareness of the desire to live in a cleaner environment and to breathe clean air. The topic is more and more often discussed in public debate, above all during periods of peak contaminant concentrations. The situation serves as a stimulus for citizens to mobilize, often through various social movements while local governments take actions oriented at changing methods of domestic heating, more eco-friendly mobility and the enhanced environmental education of society.

The present economic system is geared towards increasing specialization and infinite growth. This orientation may have led to efficiency and new ways of increasing wealth but it has also led to unsustainable practices and, in some cases, loss of traditional knowledge. Many a systems thinker like the Limits to Growth's Club of Rome have suggested ways to avoid the negative consequences of the current economic system but these entail radical changes that cannot be afforded by deeply-entrenched practices of the worldwide economy. In this paper, another alternative is proposed, which may not only be desirable to an envisioned ecological society but also may also be logical to the unsustainable society of today. Looking at rural indigenous livelihoods may show us how an ecological society should be like. Exemplifying collectivism, indigenous peoples continue to cultivate empathy while at the same time inculcating sense of responsibility. Before "multi-hyphenated" became fashionable, indigenous peoples were already engaged in different occupations that, in turn, result to a diversified livelihood portfolio similar to what banks today advise clients on their investments. However, the difference lies in the indigenous tradition of only having enough for what is needed and rarely hoarding to the point of exhausting resources. This paper proposes that the diverse indigenous livelihood portfolio can be a valuable economic framework for an ecological society. It does not limit growth, but it makes sure growth happens in a sustainable manner.

Land-use transitions can enhance the livelihoods of smallholder farmers but potential economic-ecological trade-offs remain poorly understood. Here, we present an interdisciplinary study of the environmental, social and economic consequences of land-use transitions in a tropical smallholder landscape on Sumatra, Indonesia. We find widespread biodiversity-profit trade-offs resulting from land-use transitions from forest and agroforestry systems to rubber and oil palm monocultures, for 26,894 aboveground and belowground species and whole-ecosystem multidiversity. Despite variation between ecosystem functions, profit gains come at the expense of ecosystem multifunctionality, indicating far-reaching ecosystem deterioration. We identify landscape compositions that can mitigate trade-offs under optimal land-use allocation but also show that intensive monocultures always lead to higher profits. These findings suggest that, to reduce losses in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, changes in economic incentive structures through well-designed policies are urgently needed.

Specialization in agricultural systems can lead to trade-offs between economic gains and ecosystem functions. We suggest and explore a conceptual framework in which economic gains can be maximized when production activities are specialized at increasingly broader scales (from the household to the village, region or above), particularly when markets for outputs and inputs function well. Conversely, more specialization likely reduces biodiversity and significantly limits ecosystem functions. When agricultural specialization increases and moves to broader scales as a result of improved infrastructure and markets or other drivers, ecosystem functions can also be endangered at broader spatial scales. Policies to improve agricultural incomes may influence the level of specialization at different scales and thus affect the severity of the trade-offs. This paper takes Jambi province in Indonesia, a current hotspot of rubber and oil palm monoculture, as a case study to illustrate these issues. We empirically show that the level of specialization differs across scales with higher specialization at household and village levels and higher diversification towards the province level. We discuss ways to resolve trade-offs between economic gains and ecological costs, including landscape design, targeted policies, and adoption of long-term perspectives.

Das soziale System der Krankenbehandlung erbringt nicht nur wesentliche Leistungen in der Gesellschaft, sondern externalisiert systemisch unerwünschte Folgen, z. B. Pharmazeutikarückstände in Gewässern. Diese nicht-intendierten Nebenfolgen resultieren aus unzähligen, alltäglichen Einzelhandlungen, die durch soziale Mechanismen des Umgangs mit Unsicherheit erst ermöglicht werden. Zur Entwicklung von Strategien zur Reduzierung von Pharmazeutikarückständen im Trinkwasser muss die Wirkmächtigkeit von Mechanismen wie Geldzahlungen, Autorität oder Vertrauen besser verstanden werden. Diese bewirken das Zustandekommen von Handlungen, lassen sich aber schwerlich zur Steuerung von erwünschtem Verhalten instrumentalisieren., The social system of medical treatment does not only provide essential societal services, it also externalizes systemically undesirable effects, e.g., pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. These unintended consequences result from countless individual actions that arise from social mechanisms of dealing with uncertainty. In order to develop strategies to reduce pharmaceuticals in drinking water, it is important to better understand the efficacy of mechanisms such as monetary payments, authority, and trust. Those allow for the emergence of actions, but can hardly be used to control desired actions.

The Small Island Development States (SIDS) and other developing coun­tries affected by climate change are demanding more attention be given to climate-related losses and damages. The issue of "loss and damage" is being addressed in UNFCCC negotiations; however, the SIDS regard the Security Council as another key place for related debates. The Security Council can sound out climate policy interests to increase knowledge and improve the means of early warning. Moreover, its role can be to focus on the security aspects of climate risks and highlight im­portant preventive approaches. These include, above all, development policy and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (the UN 2030 Agenda). The demands on the Security Council are strongly linked to the inter­national climate negotiations. Thus, Germany’s commitment to climate policy has to be broad and long-term in times of dwindling multilateralism. Due to the Corona pandemic, short-term national and international policy agendas have readjusted to address the crisis situation, which has been detrimental to the climate policy agenda. A debate at the Security Council should nevertheless keep the focus on climate-related risks as such. (author's abstract)

The worsening violence between Farmers and Nomadic herdsmen in Nigeria has remained an issue of concern on the laundry list of the Nigerian State, policy makers, security agencies, International bodies as well as Social science scholars. While conflict is considered a normal and inevitable outcome of human relationships, the concern here is the devastating socio-economic, political and environmental implications of the conflict between these two livelihood groups as well as its impact on national development. Whereas a number of factors have been adduced for this growing violence ranging from climatic transformations, deteriorating environmental conditions, desertification, soil degradation; political and ethnic strife; breakdown in traditional conflict resolution mechanisms; proliferation of arms in the country and a dysfunctional legal regime that neglects justice; this paper, relying on the demographic theory of conflict, demonstrates how population overshoot in Nigeria explicate the new violent and widespread dimensions of the Farmers-Herders conflict. This paper, relying on the Demographic theory of conflict, argues that among the various causes of the Farmers-Herders conflict, the exponential growth of Nigeria’s population and the inability of the Nigerian State to meet the needs of the populace, contributes to the endless contest for space and property in the country, referred to in this paper as ‘population induced warfare’. In line with this thesis, this paper recommends that Nigeria as a country should begin to pay serious attention to the costs and impacts of population growth and create accordingly, rights-based population policies that adapts Nigeria’s population strength to a positive force for sustainable development.

Der Artikel diskutiert Hindernisse für einen Strukturwandel zu einer ökologisch nachhaltigen Wirtschaftsweise auf der Produktebene. In einem agentenbasierten Modell wird eine Marktsituation mit Lock-in-Effekten simuliert, welche das technologische Paradigma eines verschmutzenden Produktionsprozesses gegenüber einer neu in den Markt eintretenden Öko-Innovation festigen. Konsumenten haben die Möglichkeit, über ihre Konsumwahl Einfluss auf den Strukturwandel zu nehmen. Dazu unterscheiden sie die ihnen angebotenen Produkte aufgrund von räumlichen, sozialen, ökonomischen und ökologischen Kriterien. Simulationen des Modells zeigen den Einfluss heterogener und homogener Konsumpräferenzen auf das Niveau an Umweltverschmutzung und die Adoptionsraten des umweltfreundlichen Produktes auf., The article discusses product market hindrances for structural change towards an ecologically sustainable economic system. An agent-based model is presented which simulates an economy affected by path dependencies and lock-in effects. A new environmentally friendly product enters this market and tries to break the technological paradigm of a pollutive production technology. Consumers can influence this process of structural change via their consumption decision which depends on an assessment of products by means of spatial, social, economic, and ecological criteria. Simulations show how the model results, namely the speed of adoption and the level of pollution over time, are influenced by heterogeneous and homogeneous consumption preferences.

Verglichen mit den Risiken und Konflikten des fossil-nuklearen Zeitalters erscheinen die erneuerbaren Energien in einem überwiegend positiven Licht. Allerdings schafft die Transformation zu einer kohlenstoffarmen Energieversorgung neue Energielandschaften, die einen hohen Bedarf an Landflächen mit sich bringen – was ebenfalls Energiekonflikte provozieren kann. Um derartige Konflikte zu mindern und die Akzeptanz der Bevölkerung zu gewinnen, kann Technikfolgenabschätzung einen Beitrag leisten, wenn sie sich auf räumliche agentenbasierte Modelle stützt. Diese Modelle repräsentieren die Entscheidungen von Stakeholdern über Energiealternativen, deren dynamische Interaktionen sowie daraus resultierende Landnutzungsoptionen und Energiepfade. Als Fallstudie dient Norddeutschland, wo Landwirte und Gemeinden als lokale Akteure der Energiewende agieren., The risks and conflicts of the fossil-nuclear age are in contrast to the effects of renewable energies which appear in a largely positive light. However, the transformation towards a low-carbon energy supply creates new energy landscapes with a high demand for suitable land areas – which may also provoke energy conflicts. Technology assessment can contribute to reducing such energy conflicts and increasing public acceptance by using spatial agent-based models that represent dynamic decisions and interactions of stakeholders regarding energy alternatives and land-use options. Northern Germany serves as a case study region where farmers and communities are local actors of the energy transition.

Der Forschungsbericht 17 analysiert das Migrationspotenzial aus der GUS in die Europäische Union. Dafür werden datengestützt die demographischen, wirtschaftlichen, politischen und ökologischen Entwicklungsdifferenzen zwischen den Regionen GUS und EU sowie der Einfluss der Migrantenbevölkerung in den EU-Staaten und die aktuellen Migrationsbewegungen untersucht., Research Report 17 analyses the migration potential from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to the European Union. To this end, the differences in the demographic, economic, political and ecological development between the CIS and EU regions, as well as the influence of the migrant population in the EU States, and the current migration movements, are examined on the basis of data.

Die Bundesregierung wird im Juli 2020 die Folgen des Klimawandels im Sicherheitsrat der Vereinten Nationen zur Debatte stellen. In den vergangenen Jahren haben die Treibhausgas-Emissionen deutlich zugenommen, und die Umsetzung des Pariser Abkommens stockt - vor allem aufgrund der negativen Strahlkraft des US-Austritts. Die armen Inselstaaten und weitere vom Klimawandel betroffene Entwicklungsländer fordern mehr Beachtung für klimabedingte Verluste und Schäden. Diese sind Gegenstand der VN-Klimaverhandlungen. Die bedrohten Länder nutzen den Sicherheitsrat, um dafür mehr Aufmerksamkeit zu erlangen. Der Sicherheitsrat kann bestimmte Sicherheitsaspekte der Klimarisiken in den Fokus nehmen und wichtige präventive Politikfelder hervorheben. Dazu gehören vor allem die Entwicklungspolitik und die Umsetzung der Nachhaltigkeitsziele der Agenda 2030. Er ist ein zusätzlicher Ort, um klimapolitische Interessen auszuloten. Die Forderungen an den Sicherheitsrat sind stark mit den internationalen Klimaverhandlungen verknüpft. Daher muss das klimapolitische Engage­ment Deutschlands in Zeiten eines schwindenden Multilateralismus breit und längerfristig angelegt werden. Die deutsche EU-Ratspräsidentschaft im zweiten Halbjahr 2020 sollte genutzt werden, um zusammen mit Mitgliedstaaten und EU-Partnern eine umfassende Agenda für den Umgang mit Klimarisiken zu entwickeln. (Autorenreferat)

The worst drought in a century in Southern Africa at the end of last year slowed the iconic Victoria Falls on the Zimbabwean–Zambian border to a rill, fuelling renewed discussion about climate change. It also epitomised the potential repercussions of the phenomenon for livelihoods and security on the African continent. However, current research only sees a weak connection between climate and violent conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is the world region most affected by climate change. Parts of East Africa, the Sahel, and Southern Africa have been the most severely impacted on. Existing research largely sees climate change as a "threat multiplier," and perceives high poverty and low state capability as more influential drivers of conflict. General assessments of how climate affects conflict mask important differ­ences: In some parts of Africa, extreme weather events (such as droughts) and rising temperatures threaten the most vulnerable already - namely, those that are poor and rely on rain-fed agriculture. Pastoralist agricultural production and pronounced differences between ethnic groups are particularly dangerous risk factors. Yet uncertainty about climate's precise effects is still high. Under certain conditions, climate change can lead to increased conflict but also cooperation in affected communities across Africa. New research needs to investigate more thoroughly the mechanisms underlying how individuals and communities react to weather extremes and long-term climatic changes. It is of particular relevance to understand how increased societal cooperation as well as adequate state policies can help overcome climate change's adverse effects among those most vulnerable people. Following up on its last report from 2014, in 2022 the climate-conflict link will be re-evaluated for the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Better understanding the pathways that lead to violent conflict and focusing on the most vulnerable members of socie