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The Community Land Model is the land component of the Community Climate System Model. Here, we describe a broad set of model improvements and additions that have been provided through the CLM development community to create CLM4. The model is extended with a carbon-nitrogen (CN) biogeochemical model that is prognostic with respect to vegetation, litter, and soil carbon and nitrogen states and vegetation phenology. An urban canyon model is added and a transient land cover and land use change (LCLUC) capability, including wood harvest, is introduced, enabling study of historic and future LCLUC on energy, water, momentum, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes. The hydrology scheme is modified with a revised numerical solution of the Richards equation and a revised ground evaporation parameterization that accounts for litter and within-canopy stability. The new snow model incorporates the SNow and Ice Aerosol Radiation model (SNICAR) - which includes aerosol deposition, grain-size dependent snow aging, and vertically-resolved snowpack heating – as well as new snow cover and snow burial fraction parameterizations. The thermal and hydrologic properties of organic soil are accounted for and the ground column is extended to ~50-m depth. Several other minor modifications to the land surface types dataset, grass and crop optical properties, atmospheric forcing height, roughness length and displacement height, and the disposition of snow-capped runoff are also incorporated.Taken together, these augmentations to CLM result in improved soil moisture dynamics, drier soils, and stronger soil moisture variability. The new model also exhibits higher snow cover, cooler soil temperatures in organic-rich soils, greater global river discharge, and lower albedos over forests and grasslands, all of which are improvements compared to CLM3.5. When CLM4 is run with CN, the mean biogeophysical simulation is slightly degraded because the vegetation structure is prognostic rather than prescribed, though running in this mode also allows more complex terrestrial interactions with climate and climate change.

The 19th Conference of the Parties (COP19) to the United Nations Framework Committee on Climate Change concluded in November 2013 with limited progress toward reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. However, while international negotiations on climate change have stalled, regional initiatives are quietly starting to play an important role in the fight to subvert catastrophic climate change. Examples include the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative to reduce emissions in the northeast United States and the ClimAct Regions Project, which aims to reduce greenhouse emissions in 60 regions and provinces of Europe.

International audience; We have developed and published the COde for Solar Irradiance (COSI) which allows us to calculate the entire solar spectrum. COSI reproduces the spectral irradiance measured by SOLSTICE (up to 320 nm) and SIM (from 320 nm onward) onboard the SORCE satellite during the 2008 solar minimum as well as SOLSPEC during the ATLAS 3 mission in 1994 with high accuracy. COSI is also used as a tool for modeling the variability of the solar irradiance. In our new reconstruction we represent the quiet Sun as a combination of two components. The first corresponds to the least active areas of the Sun as presently observed, while the second component is responsible for the magnetic activity of the quiet Sun. The time-dependent filling factors of these components are calculated based on the solar activity as derived from cosmogenic isotope concentrations in natural archieves. This allows us to obtain a time-dependent reconstructed solar spectrum from 7000 BC to the present with a temporal resolution of 22 years. From 1610 onward we have additional information from sunspot numbers, which allows the reconstruction of the spectral solar irradiance with a yearly resolution. These basic assumptions lead to a total and spectral solar irradiance that was substantially lower during the Maunder minimum than observed today. The difference is remarkably larger than other estimations published in the recent literature. Using our reconstruction as an input to a chemistry-climate model we show that the enhanced UV variability results in significant variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature.

We have reviewed the available scientific literature on how natural sources and the atmospheric fate of methane may be affected by future climate change. We discuss how processes governing methane wetland emissions, permafrost thawing, and destabilization of marine hydrates may affect the climate system. It is likely that methane wetland emissions will increase over the next century. Uncertainties arise from the temperature dependence of emissions and changes in the geographical distribution of wetland areas. Another major concern is the possible degradation or thaw of terrestrial permafrost due to climate change. The amount of carbon stored in permafrost, the rate at which it will thaw, and the ratio of methane to carbon dioxide emissions upon decomposition form the main uncertainties. Large amounts of methane are also stored in marine hydrates, and they could be responsible for large emissions in the future. The time scales for destabilization of marine hydrates are not well understood and are likely to be very long for hydrates found in deep sediments but much shorter for hydrates below shallow waters, such as in the Arctic Ocean. Uncertainties are dominated by the sizes and locations of the methane hydrate inventories, the time scales associated with heat penetration in the ocean and sediments, and the fate of methane released in the seawater. Overall, uncertainties are large, and it is difficult to be conclusive about the time scales and magnitudes of methane feedbacks, but significant increases in methane emissions are likely, and catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out. We also identify gaps in our scientific knowledge and make recommendations for future research and development in the context of Earth system modeling. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

The goal of the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) was to produce an open-source model that couples hydrodynamics (circulation and waves), sediment transport, and morphodynamics. The model is intended to be used as both a research tool and for practical applications. An accurate and useful model requires coupling sediment-transport with hydrodynamic forcing and stratigraphic evolution. Ultimately, the modeling system will consist of interoperable modules, conforming to a community-accepted standard such as the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF).

The version 4 series of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) has been developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and transitioned to the Navy Oceanographic Office. New capabilities include a general vertical coordinate (GVC) option in addition to the sigma-z coordinate vertical grid, Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) compliance, and several other compile time options that increase the flexibility of the model code. NRL has also begun maintaining NCOM in version control using a Subversion repository. This User's Manual documents the setup and execution of the NCOM version 4.0 series.

The version 4 series of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) has been developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and transitioned to the Navy Oceanographic Office. New capabilities include a general vertical coordinate (GVC) option in addition to the sigma-z coordinate vertical grid, Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) compliance, and several other compile time options that increase the flexibility of the model code. NRL has also begun maintaining NCOM in version control using a Subversion repository. This User's Manual documents the setup and execution of the NCOM version 4.0 series.

We use the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling fully interactive ice sheets on the simulated climate response to a 2xCO2 stabilization scenario. For this purpose a number of different parameter sets have been defined for LOVECLIM, covering a wide range of the models sensitivity to greenhouse warming. We analyze the effect and physical mechanism of ice-climate interactions introduced by the dynamic ice sheets for the ensemble of different parameter sets. We find a lower climate sensitivity of the model when fully coupled ice sheets are included, an effect, which scales with increasing freshwater fluxes from the melting Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In both cases, changes in oceanic heat uptake and sea-ice-albedo feedbacks play a mayor role in attenuating the warming.

0094-8276WOS:000253064000004; International audience; A global description of the ocean tidal residual mean circulation (TRMC) is provided and its effect on a global ocean climate model is evaluated. The TRMC is computed from a global barotropic tidal model based on pure hydrodynamical equations and forced by the major tidal constituents. It thus includes both Stokes drift and non-linear tidal dynamics. The TRMC map exhibits remarkable basin scale structures in the Indonesian archipelago-Australian region and on the Malvinas shelf. Regions of largest transport are characterized by sites of high tidal amplitudes, abrupt topography and western boundaries. Yet transport magnitudes remain at a few tenths of a Sverdrup. This TRMC is introduced as an external forcing in an ocean climate model. At equilibrium, the thermohaline structure and the poleward heat transport of the ocean are almost insensitive to the TRMC. It is concluded that the TRMC is negligible for climate purposes in an ocean climate model.

The goal of the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) is to produce an open source model that couples hydrodynamics (circulation and waves), sediment transport, and morphodynamics. The model is intended to be used as both a research tool and for practical applications. An accurate and useful model requires coupling sediment-transport with hydrodynamic forcing and stratigraphic evolution. Ultimately, the modeling system will consist of interoperable modules, conforming to a community-accepted standard such as the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF).

A coupling toolkit has been developed to reduce the complexity of model component coupling, in particular among hierarchical model components. The toolkit provides the services of data registration, data matching, data filtering, and model component coupling. In addition, it can generate diagrams to reveal the "producer"-to-"consumer" relations among the components. We have tested this toolkit with the operational NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), which is built on the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and consists of multi-level Earth system components.

The increasing complexity of Earth system models and the computing facilities needed to run those models put a heavy technical burden on research teams active in climate modeling. To ease this burden, a European collaborative venture called PRISM was initiated in December 2001 to organize a network of experts in order to share the development, maintenance, and support of Earth system modeling software tools and community standards. PRISM was recently reorganized, and a new Web portal (http://prism.enes.org) was unveiled in July 2006. The PRISM network was developed with the hope that advancing specific common standards and tools will reduce the technical development efforts of individual research teams, facilitate the assembling, running, and postprocessing of Earth system models based on state-of-the-art component models, and hence facilitate scientific collaboration between the different research groups in Europe and elsewhere.

Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon–nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.

[1] There is increasing pressure on the science community not only to understand how recent and projected changes in climate will affect Earth's global environment and the natural resources on which society depends but also to design solutions to mitigate or cope with the likely impacts. Responding to this multidimensional challenge requires new tools and research frameworks that assist scientists in collaborating to rapidly investigate complex interdisciplinary science questions of critical societal importance. One such collaborative research framework, within the NASA Earth sciences program, is the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX). NEX combines state-of-the-art supercomputing, Earth system modeling, remote sensing data from NASA and other agencies, and a scientific social networking platform to deliver a complete work environment. In this platform, users can explore and analyze large Earth science data sets, run modeling codes, collaborate on new or existing projects, and share results within or among communities (see Figure S1 in the online supplement to this Eos issue (http://www.agu.org/eos_elec)).

Siebert et al (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 044012) suggest that crop models do not represent the effect of heat stress on crop yield adequately unless they apply such effect to sensitive phases in a crop's growth cycle. Siebert et al focus particularly on the phase considered most sensitive for wheat yield in Germany, the time of anthesis. Siebert et al find that observed canopy rather than 2 m or ground temperature better quantifies the effect of heat stress during anthesis on wheat yield in Germany when evaluated against data from pot experiments under controlled conditions.

A theme which emerges from our simple considerations is that some well-planned early parametric and sensitivity studies, using current-generation coupled Earth system model components, along with simplistic proxy models of terrestrial biospheric and biogeochemical processes, could furnish valuable information to help guide the development of a longer-term plan for research supporting ESM development. This theme is rooted in the premise that the importance of various ESM component processes can be fully assessed only from the perspective of a complete coupling of that process into the ESM context. That is, the question, ``How well must a given process be modelled``? Cannot be answered in isolation, but rather requires a careful blend of process research and coupled model studies.

Climate Knowledge Discovery Workshop; Hamburg, Germany, 30 March to 1 April 2011 Do complex networks combined with semantic Web technologies offer the next generation of solutions in climate science? To address this question, a first Climate Knowledge Discovery (CKD) Workshop, hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)), brought together climate and computer scientists from major American and European laboratories, data centers, and universities, as well as representatives from industry, the broader academic community, and the semantic Web communities. The participants, representing six countries, were concerned with large-scale Earth system modeling and computational data analysis. The motivation for the meeting was the growing problem that climate scientists generate data faster than it can be interpreted and the need to prepare for further exponential data increases. Current analysis approaches are focused primarily on traditional methods, which are best suited for large-scale phenomena and coarse-resolution data sets. The workshop focused on the open discussion of ideas and technologies to provide the next generation of solutions to cope with the increasing data volumes in climate science.

Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an ‘adaptation wedge’ relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000–39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030–9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation within and across a broad range of natural and human systems.

[1] It's a case of forensic analysis on the grandest scale: the possible near-extinction of the entire human race at the hands of one volcanic supereruption. The Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption 74,000 years ago has been accused of blanketing the sky with sulfate aerosols and driving the world into a long-lasting winter. In a new study,Timmreck et al. have given the Sumatran volcano a climatological alibi. The authors used a global circulation model to simulate the YTT eruption, including for the first time an analysis of the small-scale interactions between sulfate particles. Sulfate particles in the upper atmosphere strongly reflect incoming solar radiation, which has a cooling effect on the Earth. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL045464, 2010)

In this paper we introduce a three-dimensional version of the Mercedes-Benz model to describe water molecules. In this model van der Waals interactions and hydrogen bonds are given explicitly through a Lennard-Jones potential and a Gaussian orientation-dependent terms, respectively. At low temperature the model freezes forming Ice-I and it reproduces the main peaks of the experimental radial distribution function of water. In addition to these structural properties, the model also captures the thermodynamical anomalies of water: The anomalous density profile, the negative thermal expansivity, the large heat capacity, and the minimum in the isothermal compressibility.

With the planet heating up, the urgent need to reduce uncertainty in climate projections could have consequences in the way Earth system models evolve. I argue that a period of confusion in the development of models can be beneficial and can lead to improved understanding and reduced uncertainty in due time. I have identified three phases of development in modeling—the illusion, the chaos, and the relief—through which models seem to evolve before their results can be said to approach the truth with some confidence. Whereas these phases are based only on my limited observation of the field, they underline the fact that answers to scientific questions are usually ‘unknown’ before they become ‘uncertain.’ Realizing in which phase a model component may be could facilitate their development. I give examples from carbon cycle modeling and highlight the benefits of encouraging new and audacious approaches in modeling.

Future changes in multidecadal mean water availability, represented as the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, remain highly uncertain in ensemble simulations of climate models. Here we identify a physically meaningful relationship between present‐day mean precipitation and projected changes in water availability. This suggests that the uncertainty can be reduced by conditioning the ensemble on observed precipitation, which is achieved through a novel probabilistic approach that uses Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparing the constrained with the full ensemble shows that projected extreme changes in water availability, denoted by the 5th and 95th percentile of the full ensemble, are less likely over 73% and 63% of land, respectively. There is also an overall shift toward wetter conditions over Europe, Southern Africa, and Western North America, whereas the opposite occurs over the Amazon. Finally, the constrained projections support adaptation to shifts in regional water availability as imposed by different global warming levels., Key Points Model differences in present‐day precipitation partially explain the uncertainty of projected changes in long‐term mean water availabilityA constrained ensemble reduces the likelihood of extreme changes in water availability over 73% of the global land areaThe likelihood of extreme drying is 5 times smaller in Europe, Western North America, and Southern Africa, relative to the full ensemble

The recent hiatus in global‐mean surface temperature warming was characterized by a Eurasian winter cooling trend, and the cause(s) for this cooling is unclear. Here we show that the observed hiatus in Eurasian warming was associated with a recent trend toward weakened stratospheric polar vortices. Specifically, by calculating the change in Eurasian surface air temperature associated with a given vortex weakening, we demonstrate that the recent trend toward weakened polar vortices reduced the anticipated Eurasian warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Those model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatus. While it is unclear whether the recent weakening of the midwinter stratospheric polar vortex was forced, a properly configured model can simulate substantial deviations of the polar vortex on decadal timescales and hence such hiatus events, implying that similar hiatus events may recur even as greenhouse gas concentrations rise., Key Points Recent Eurasian cooling was associated with stratospheric variabilityThose model integrations whose stratospheric vortex evolution most closely matches that in reanalysis data also simulate a hiatusSimilar hiatus events could recur even as GHG concentrations rise, but are only properly simulated by stratosphere‐resolving models

Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is an area of recent, major Earth System Model (ESM) development. This work occurs at the intersection of glaciology and climate science and is motivated by a need for robust projections of sea‐level rise. The Community Ice Sheet Model version 2 (CISM2) is the newest component model of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This study describes the coupling and novel capabilities of the model, including: (1) an advanced energy‐balance‐based surface mass balance calculation in the land component with downscaling via elevation classes; (2) a closed freshwater budget from ice sheet to the ocean from surface runoff, basal melting, and ice discharge; (3) dynamic land surface types; and (4) dynamic atmospheric topography. The Earth system/ice‐sheet coupling is demonstrated in a simulation with an evolving Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) under an idealized high CO2 scenario. The model simulates a large expansion of ablation areas (where surface ablation exceeds snow accumulation) and a large increase in surface runoff. This results in an elevated freshwater flux to the ocean, as well as thinning of the ice sheet and area retreat. These GrIS changes result in reduced Greenland surface albedo, changes in the sign and magnitude of sensible and latent heat fluxes, and modified surface roughness and overall ice sheet topography. Representation of these couplings between climate and ice sheets is key for the simulation of ice and climate interactions., Key Points We present a bi‐directionally coupled ice sheet and Earth system model including advanced representation of surface snow/ice processesThe surface mass balance is calculated in the land component with an energy balance scheme and downscaled to the ice‐sheet component via elevation classesIce sheet meltwater and solid discharge are passed to the ocean component; changes in ice sheet area and topography to land and atmosphere

Quaternary interglacials provide key observations of the Earth system's responses to orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They also inform on the capabilities of Earth system models, used for projecting the polar ice-sheet and sea-level responses to a regional warmth comparable to that expected by 2100 C.E. However, a number of uncertainties remain regarding the processes and feedbacks linking climate, ice-sheet and sea-level changes during past warm intervals. Here, we delineate the major research questions that need to be resolved and future research directions that should be taken by the paleoclimate, sea-level and ice-sheet research communities in order to increase confidence in the use of past interglacial climate, ice-sheet and sea-level reconstructions to constrain future predictions. These questions were formulated during a joint workshop held by the PAGES-INQUA PALSEA (PALeo constraints on SEA level rise) and the PAGES-PMIP QUIGS (QUaternary InterGlacialS) Working Groups in September 2018.

Since the dawn of functioning numerical dynamical atmosphere- and ocean models, their resolution has steadily increased, fed by an exponential growth in computational capabilities. However, because resolution of models is at all times limited by computational power a number of mostly small-scale or micro-scale processes have to be parameterised. Particularly those of atmospheric moist convection and ocean eddies are problematic when scientists seek to interpret output from model experiments. Here we present the first coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with sufficient resolution to dispose of moist convection and ocean eddy parameterisations. We describe the early development and discuss the challenges associated with conducting the simulations with a focus on tuning the global mean radiation balance in order to limit drifts. A four-month experiment with quadrupled CO2 is then compared with a ten-member ensemble of low-resolution simulations using MPI-ESM1.2-LR. We find broad similarities of the response, albeit with a more diversified spatial pattern with both stronger and weaker regional warming, as well as a sharpening of precipitation in the inter tropical convergence zone. These early results demonstrate that it is already now possible to learn from such coupled model experiments, even if short by nature.

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections., Key Points Probabilistic global‐mean temperature projections often use reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) because of their low computational costWe evaluate how well RCMs’ probabilistic setups can synthesize knowledge from multiple research domains for policy relevant projectionsNo RCM is able to capture all forcing, warming, heat uptake and carbon cycle metrics we evaluate, however some come close across a range

The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM) to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, ...). One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy). It comprises (1) a modular interface structure to connect submodels to a base model, (2) an extendable set of such submodels for miscellaneous processes, and (3) a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a base model and several submodels within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the submodels is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling). Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions., Environmental Research Letters, 10 (7), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318