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Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study
- Source :
- Environmental Research Letters. 10:044016
- Publication Year :
- 2015
- Publisher :
- IOP Publishing, 2015.
-
Abstract
- Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon–nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.
- Subjects :
- Biogeochemical cycle
Incomplete knowledge
Earth system modeling
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Climatology
Climate change scenario
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Nitrogen fixation
Environmental science
Climate change
Community land model
General Environmental Science
Carbon cycle
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 17489326
- Volume :
- 10
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Environmental Research Letters
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........527b727bbc33188b9ce52437048490f5