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Clay shrink-swell consists in volume changes of clayey, smectite-rich soils as a function of their soil water content. Building foundations can be affected by soil shrinkage during droughts, entailing what is called subsidence damage. This is the second costliest peril covered by the French national natural disaster compensation scheme, the losses amounting to more than 16B€ between 1989 and 2021 (CCR, 2021). As illustrated by the 2022 drought in France, these costs are likely to increase as a result of climate change and of the related amplification of annual soil moisture cycles.In this context, we investigate the relationship between drought and subsidence damage, using the ISBA land surface model developed by the French meteorological service (Météo-France), geotechnical data from the French geological survey (BRGM) and data from a national claim database operated by the French state-owned national reinsurance company (CCR). We compute several yearly drought indices based on multi-layer soil moisture time series simulated by the ISBA model. Different configurations of the indices are considered, varying in particular the ISBA model settings, and the soil drought definition through a threshold value accounting for a given temporal frequency, for each model soil layer. We assess a large range of configurations by using the Kendall rank correlation of the indices with yearly town-scale insurance claim data from 2000 to 2018, processed using the geotechnical data. The analysis is repeated for five sets of four towns with an important damage history distributed throughout France, in contrasting climate conditions.Highest rank correlation coefficients are obtained for soil layers deeper than 60 cm, and with temporal frequency threshold values corresponding to intense droughts. Under these conditions, the indices are able to fairly represent the occurrence of damages. The relationship between drought indices and the number of claims is non-linear. This study benefits from the latest improvements in land surface modeling and is a step forwards in climate risk modeling since the indices investigated can be considered as new predictors for subsidence damage. Climate change impact studies will be conducted in a next phase.[References] CCR: Les Catastrophes naturelles en France, Bilan 1982-2021, 2021.

Since May 2018, Mayotte island has experienced an important seismic activity linked to the on-going sismo-volcanic crisis. Although variations in the number of earthquakes and in their distribution have been observed since the start of the eruption in early July 2018, a continuous seismicity persists. It could weaken the steep submarine slopes of Mayotte, as highlighted by the high-resolution bathymetry data collected during the MAYOBS cruise in May 2019. This could trigger submarine landslides with associated tsunamis.To address the hazards associated with such events, we analyzed geomorphological data to define 8 scenarios of potential submarine landslides with volumes ranging from 11,25.106 to 800.106 m3. We simulated the resulting landslide dynamics as well as generated waves (Poulain et al. 2022). In order to estimate the uncertainty associated to the modeling approach, a hierarchy of different model approximations was tested, spanning hydrostatic, non-hydrostatic and multilayer approaches. A sensitivity analysis was also performed by varying the initial released mass, the rheological parameters describing the landslide, its interaction with the water column, the Manning friction coefficient as well as the resolution of the bathymetry description. The combination of all these elements provides an estimate of the uncertainty on simulation results. We show that, in the context of Mayotte, non-hydrostatic effects have the most prominent influence on simulated water elevation and waves velocity. Other key factors include the friction coefficient within the landslide and the resolution of the bathymetry. These results show that landslide-tsunami models should still be improved as well as the estimates of the parameters involved to reduce the related uncertainties on the water wave calculation (water elevation, velocity) that can exceed a factor two.Poulain, P., et al. (2022). Numerical simulation of submarine landslides and generated tsunamis: application to the on-going Mayotte seismo-volcanic crisis. Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 354(S2), 1-30.

Des 1990, l’OMS (1999) a percu l’importance des determinants environnementaux de la sante, ce qui l’a amenee a elargir sa definition de la sante de 1946 : « la sante environnementale comprend les aspects de la sante humaine, y compris la qualite de la vie, qui sont determines par les facteurs physiques, chimiques, biologiques, sociaux, psychosociaux et esthetiques de notre environnement. Elle concerne egalement la politique et les pratiques de gestion, de resorption, de controle et de prevention des facteurs environnementaux susceptibles d’affecter la sante des generations actuelles et futures. »Partant du constat de l’impact de la qualite des ecosystemes sur la sante humaine, le concept d’exposome a emerge. Celui-ci est defini comme la totalite des expositions a des facteurs environnementaux que subit un organisme humain, depuis sa conception jusqu’a sa fin de vie en passant par le stade du developpement in utero (Wild, 2005). La notion de « One health » elaboree par Zindsstag et collaborateurs (2011) insiste en outre sur la bidirectionnalite des relations et appelle a developper des approches integrees pour garantir une sante environnementale globale (humaine, vegetale, animale et ecosystemique). A partir de differents exemples, nous questionnons ici le niveau d’integration disciplinaire et spatio-temporelle necessaire a la prise en compte et a l’operationnalisation du concept de sante environnementale globale. Nous montrons ainsi que la sante environnementale offre un cadre d’actions pour repondre au besoin urgent du developpement d’une gouvernance des risques multidimensionnelle et integree.

SinceMay 2018,Mayotte Island has been experiencing seismo-volcanic activities that could trigger submarine landslides and, in turn, tsunamis. To address these hazards, we use the HySEA numerical model to simulate granular flow dynamics and the Boussinesq FUNWAVE-TVD numerical model to simulate wave propagation and subsequent inundations. We investigate 8 landslide scenarios (volumes from 11.25£106 m3 to 800£106 m3). The scenario posing the greatest threat involves destabilization on the eastern side ofMayotte’s lagoon at a shallowdepth and can generate sea-surface deformations of up to 2 m.We show that the barrier reef surroundingMayotte plays a prominent role in controlling water-wave propagation and in protecting the island. The tsunami travel time to the coast is very short (a few minutes) and the tsunami is not necessarily preceded by a sea withdrawal. Our simulation results provide a key to establishing hazard maps and evacuation plans and improving early-warning systems, Depuis mai 2018, l’île deMayotte connaît une activité sismo-volcanique importante susceptible de déclencher des glissements de terrain sous-marins générant des tsunamis. Pour faire face à ces aléas, nous utilisons deux modèles numériques complémentaires : le modèle HySEA (simulant la dynamique des écoulements granulaires) et le modèle Boussinesq FUNWAVE-TVD (simulant la propagation des vagues et les inondations) pour étudier 8 scénarios de glissements sous-marins potentiels (volumes de 11,25£106 m3 à 800£106 m3). Les scénarios ayant le plus d’impact se situent à proximité de Petite Terre et à faible profondeur. Ils peuvent générer une élévation de la surface de la mer jusqu’à 2 m en zone habitée à Petite Terre. Nous montrons que la barrière de corail entourant Mayotte joue un rôle prépondérant dans le contrôle de la propagation des vagues et dans la protection de l’île. Le temps de trajet du tsunami jusqu’à la côte est très court (quelques minutes) et le tsunami n’est pas nécessairement précédé d’un retrait maritime. De telles observations sont essentielles pour construire des cartes d’aléas précises et des plans d’évacuation afin d’aider la population

We investigate the dynamics and deposits of granular flows and the amplitude of the generated water waves using the depth-averaged shallow numerical model HySEA, both at the lab- and field scales. We investigate the different sources of errors by quantitatively comparing the simulations with (i) six new laboratory experiments of granular collapses in different conditions (dry, immersed, dry flow entering water) and slope angles, and (ii) numerical simulations made with the code SHALTOP that describes topography effects better than most landslide-tsunami models. In the laboratory configurations, at the limit of the shallow-approximation in such models, we show that topography and non-hydrostatic effects are crucial. However, when empirically accounting for topography effects by artificially increasing the friction coefficient and performing non-hydrostatic simulations, the model is able to reproduce the granular mass deposit and the waves recorded at gauges located at a distance of more than 2-3 times the characteristic dimension of the slide, with an error ranging from 1 % to 25 % depending on the scenario, without any further calibration. Taking into account this error estimation, we simulate landslides that occurred on Montagne Pelée volcano, Martinique, Petites Antilles as well as the generated waves. Results support the hypothesis that large flank collapse events in Montagne Pelée likely occurred in several successive sub-events. This result has a strong impact on the amplitude of the generated waves, and thus on the associated hazards. In the context of the on-going seismic volcanic unrest at Montagne Pelée volcano, we calculate the debris avalanche and associated tsunami for two potential flank-collapse scenarios.

In this work, we use a probabilistic approach for modelling rainfall thresholds (Caine 1980) triggering shallow landslides with a case study for the Alpes-Maritimes region (France).In particular, the CTRL-T algorithm (Melillo and al. 2018) is tested to output critical rainfall thresholds, based on the accumulated rainfall – duration parameters (E-D), for different exceedance probabilities from respectively a landslide and two climate datasets. The first climate dataset stores high resolution gridded rainfall data (1km resolution, hourly) and the second climate dataset contains lower resolution gridded rainfall, snow, temperature and evapotranspiration data (8km resolution, daily); the first dataset provides the rainfall records directly used for defining the rainfall events and then for the threshold construction; the second one enables to assess the region’s climate via parameters imported in CTRL-T. The thresholds are then validated using a method designed by Gariano and al. (2015).Several improvements are made to the method. First, potential evapotranspiration values approximated from temperatures and latitudes in one of the process’ steps are replaced by values from the second climate dataset, the result accounting best for the regional climate. Then, climate-specific duration values, used to split the raw rainfall records in events and sub-events, are computed for each mesh point. This second modification enables considering the heterogeneity of the Alpes-Maritimes climate.Rainfall thresholds are eventually obtained for different exceedance probabilities, first from a set of probable conditions (MRC), then from a set of highly probable conditions (MPRC). The validation process strengthens the analysis as well as enables to identify best performing thresholds. This work represents novel scientific progress towards landslide reliable warning systems by (a) making a case study of probabilistic rainfall thresholds for Alpes-Maritimes, (b) using for the first time high-resolution rainfall data and (c) adapting the method to climatically heterogeneous zones.

International audience; This work focuses on the use of thin-layer models for simulating fast gravitational flows for hazard assessment. Such simulations are sometimes difficult to carry out because of the uncertainty on initial conditions and on simulation parameters. In this study, we aggregate various field data to constrain realistic initial conditions and to calibrate the model parameters. By using the SHALTOP numerical code, we choose a simple and empirical rheology to model the flow (no more than two parameters), but we model more finely the geometrical interactions between the flow and the topography. We can thus model both a rock avalanche, and the subsequent remobilization of the deposits as a high discharge debris flow.Using the Prêcheur river catchment (Martinique, Lesser Antilles) as a case study, we focus on extreme events with a high potential to impact populations and infrastructures. We use geological and geomorphological data, topographic surveys, seismic recordings and granulometric analysis to define realistic simulation scenarios and determine the main characteristics of documented events. The latter are then reproduced to calibrate rheological parameters. With a single rheological parameter and the Coulomb rheology, we thus model the emplacement and main dynamic characteristics of a recent rock avalanche, as well as the travel duration and flooded area of a documented high discharge debris flow. Then, in a forward prediction simulation, we model a possible 1.9x10^6 m^3 rock avalanche, and the instantaneous remobilization of the resulting deposits as a high-discharge debris flow. We show that successive collapses allow to better reproduce the dynamics of the rock avalanche, but do not change the geometry of the final deposits, and thus do not influence the initial conditions of the subsequent debris flow simulation. A progressive remobilization of the materials slows down the debris flow and limits overflow, in comparison to instantaneous release. However, we show that high discharge debris flows, such as the one considered for model calibration, are better reproduced with an instantaneous initiation. The range of travel times measured for other significant debris flows in the Prêcheur river is consistent with our simulation results, with various rheological parameters and the Coulomb or Voellmy rheology.

This paper shows the results of a numerical analysis carried out using the equivalent frame method, which aimed to investigate the three-dimensional behaviour of masonry buildings with shallow foun...

Depth-averaged thin-layer models are commonly used to model rapid gravity-driven flows such as debris flows or debris avalanches. However, the formal derivation of thin-layer equations for general topographies is not straightforward. The curvature of the topography results in a force that keeps the velocity tangent to the topography. Another curvature term appears in the bottom friction force when frictional rheologies are used. In this work, we present the main lines of the mathematical derivation for these curvature terms that are proportional to the square velocity. Then, with the SHALTOP numerical model, we quan- tify their influence on flow dynamics and deposits over synthetic and real topographies. This is done by comparing simulations in which curvature terms are exact, disregarded or approximated. With the Coulomb rheology, for slopes θ = 10° and for friction coefficients below μ = tan(5°), neglecting the curvature force increases travel times by up to 10% and 30%, for synthetic and real topographies respectively. When the curvature in the friction force is neglected, the travel distance may be increased by several hundred meters on real topographies, whatever the topography slopes and friction coefficients. We observe similar effects on a synthetic channel with slope θ = 25° and μ = tan(15°), with a 50% increase of the kinetic energy. Finally, approximations of curvature in the friction force can break the non-invariance of the equations and decelerate the flow. With the Voellmy rheology, these discrepancies are less significant. Curvature effects can thus have significant impact for model calibration and for overflows prediction, both being critical for hazard assessment.

This work focuses on the use of thin-layer models for simulating fast gravitational flows for hazard assessment. Such simulations are sometimes difficult to carry out because of the uncertainty on initial conditions and on simulation parameters. In this study, we aggregate various field data to constrain realistic initial conditions and to calibrate the model parameters. By using the SHALTOP numerical code, we choose a simple and empirical rheology to model the flow (no more than two parameters), but we model more finely the geometrical interactions between the flow and the topography. We can thus model both a rock avalanche, and the subsequent remobilization of the deposits as a high discharge debris flow.Using the Prêcheur river catchment (Martinique, Lesser Antilles) as a case study, we focus on extreme events with a high potential to impact populations and infrastructures. We use geological and geomorphological data, topographic surveys, seismic recordings and granulometric analysis to define realistic simulation scenarios and determine the main characteristics of documented events. The latter are then reproduced to calibrate rheological parameters. With a single rheological parameter and the Coulomb rheology, we thus model the emplacement and main dynamic characteristics of a recent rock avalanche, as well as the travel duration and flooded area of a documented high discharge debris flow. Then, in a forward prediction simulation, we model a possible 1.9x106 m3 rock avalanche, and the instantaneous remobilization of the resulting deposits as a high-discharge debris flow. We show that successive collapses allow to better reproduce the dynamics of the rock avalanche, but do not change the geometry of the final deposits, and thus do not influence the initial conditions of the subsequent debris flow simulation. A progressive remobilization of the materials slows down the debris flow and limits overflow, in comparison to instantaneous release. However, we show that high discharge debris flows, such as the one considered for model calibration, are better reproduced with an instantaneous initiation. The range of travel times measured for other significant debris flows in the Pr\^echeur river is consistent with our simulation results, with various rheological parameters and the Coulomb or Voellmy rheology.

Since May 2018, Mayotte island has experienced an important seismic activity linked to the on-going sismo-volcanic crisis. The epicenters of the seismic swarms are located between 5 and 15 km east of Petite Terre for the main swarm, and 25 km east of Petite Terre for the secondary swarm. Although variations in the number of earthquakes and their distribution have been observed since the start of the eruption in early July 2018 [Lemoine A.(2020), Cesca et al.(2020)], a continuous seismicity persists and could generate several earthquakes of magnitudes close to M4 widely felt by the population. This recurrent seismicity could weaken the steep submarine slopes of Mayotte, as highlighted by the high resolution bathymetry data collected during the MAYOBS cruise in May 2019 (Feuillet et al.,submitted) and trigger submarine landslides with associated tsunamis.To address the hazards associated with such events, we analyzed morphological data to define 8 scenarios of potential submarine slides with volumes ranging from 11,25.106 to 800.106 m3 and we simulate the landslide dynamics and generated waves. We use two complementary numerical models: (i) the code HYSEA to simulate the dynamic of the submarine granular flows and the water wave generation, and (ii) the Boussinesq FUNWAVE- TVD model simulate the waves propagation and the inundation on Mayotte. The effect of the time at which the models are coupled is investigated.The most impacting submarine slide scenarios are located close to Petite Terre at a shallow depth. They can locally generate a sea surface elevation more than a meter in local areas especially at Petite Terre. The various simulations show that parts of the island are particularly sensitive to the risk of tsunamis. Indeed, some scenarios that does not cause significant coastal flooding still seems to cause significant hazards in these exposed areas. The barrier reef around Mayotte has a prominent role in controlling the wave propagation towards the island and therefore reducing the impact on land. It should be noted that the arrival of tsunamis on the coastline is not necessarily preceded by a retreat from the sea and the waves can reach the coasts of Mayotte very quicky (few minutes). Cesca, S., Letort, J., Razafindrakoto, H.N.T. et al. Drainage of a deep magma reservoir near Mayotte inferred from seismicity and deformation. Nat. Geosci. 13, 87–93 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0505-5Feuillet, N, Jorry, S. J., Crawford, W, Deplus, C. Thinon, I, Jacques, E. Saurel, J.M., Lemoine, A., Paquet, F., Daniel, R., Gaillot, A., Satriano, C., Peltier, A., Aiken, C., Foix, O., Kowalski, P., Laurent, A., Beauducel, F., Grandin, R., Ballu, V., Bernard, P., Donval, J.P., Geli, L., Gomez, J. Guyader, V., Pelleau, P., Rinnert, E., Bertil, D., Lemarchand, A., Van der Woerd, J.et al. (in rev). Birth of a large volcano offshore Mayotte through lithosphere-scale rifting, Nature.Anne Lemoine, Pierre Briole, Didier Bertil, Agathe Roullé, Michael Foumelis, Isabelle Thinon, Daniel Raucoules, Marcello de Michele, Pierre Valty, Roser Hoste Colomer, The 2018–2019 seismo-volcanic crisis east of Mayotte, Comoros islands: seismicity and ground deformation markers of an exceptional submarine eruption, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 223, Issue 1, October 2020, Pages 22–44, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa273

Several studies have shown that global changes have important impacts in mountainous areas, since they affect natural hazards induced by hydrometeorological events such as landslides. The present study evaluates, through an innovative method, the influence of both vegetation cover and climate change on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. We first focused on assessing future land use and land cover changes through the construction of four prospective socioeconomic scenarios and their projection to 2040 and 2100. Secondly, climate change parameters were used to extract the water saturation of the uppermost layers, according to two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The impacts of land cover and climate change based on these scenarios were then used to modulate the hydromechanical model to compute the factor of safety (FoS) and the hazard levels over the considered area. The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. The resulting changes are statistically significant but small and dependent on future land cover linked to the socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, a reduction in human activity results in an increase in slope stability; in contrast, an increase in anthropic activity leads to an opposite evolution in the region, with some reduction in slope stability. Climate change may also have a significant impact in some areas because of the increase in the soil water content; the results indicate a reduction in the FoS in a large part of the study area, depending on the landslide type considered. Therefore, even if future forest growth leads to slope stabilization, the evolution of the groundwater conditions will lead to destabilization. The increasing rate of areas prone to landslides is higher for the shallow landslide type than for the deep landslide type. Interestingly, the evolution of extreme events is related to the frequency of the highest water filling ratio. The results indicate that the occurrences of landslide hazards in the near future (2021–2050 period, scenario RCP8.5) and far future (2071–2100 period, scenario RCP8.5) are expected to increase by factors of 1.5 and 4, respectively.

Several studies have shown that global changes have important impacts in mountainous areas, since they affect natural hazards induced by hydro-meteorological events such as landslides. To estimate the capacity of mountainous valleys to cope with landslide hazard under global change (climate change as well as climate- and human-induced land use change), it is necessary to evaluate the evolution of the different components that define this type of hazard: topography, geology and geotechnics, hydrogeology and land cover. The present study evaluates, through an innovative methodology, the influence of both vegetation cover and climate change on landslide hazard in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. Once the invariant features of the studied area, such as geology and topography, were set, we first focused on assessing future land use changes through the construction of four prospective socioeconomic scenarios and their projection to 2040 and 2100. These inputs were then used to spatially model land use and land cover (LUCC) information to produce multi-temporal LUCC maps. Then, climate change inputs were used to extract the water saturation of the uppermost layers, according to two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The impacts of land use and climate change based on these scenarios were then used to modulate the hydro-mechanical model to compute the factor of safety (FoS) and the hazard levels over the considered area. The results demonstrate the influence of land use on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. The resulting changes are significant despite being small and dependent on future land use linked to the socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, a reduction in human activity results in an increase in slope stability; in contrast, an increase in anthropic activity leads to an opposite evolution in the region, with some reduction in slope stability. Climate change may also have a significant impact in some areas because of the increase in the soil water content; the results indicate a reduction in the FoS in a large part of the study area, depending on the landslide typology considered. Therefore, even if future forest growth leads to slope stabilization, the evolution of the groundwater conditions will lead to destabilization. These changes are not uniform over the area and are particularly significant under the most extreme climate scenario, RCP 8.5. Compared to the current period, the size of the area that is prone to deep landslides is higher in the future than the area prone to small landslides (both rotational and translational). On the other hand, the increase rate of areas prone to landslides is higher for the small landslide typology than for the deep landslide typology. Interestingly, the evolution of extreme events is related to the frequency of the highest water filling ratio. The results indicate that the occurrences of landslide hazards in the near future (2021–2050 period, scenario RCP 8.5) and far future (2071–2100 period, scenario RCP 8.5) are expected to increase by factors of 1.5 and 4, respectively.

A key point of landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of their runout. Empirical relations linking angle of reach to volume can be used relatively easily, but they are generally associated with large uncertainties as they do not consider the topographic specificity of a given study site. On the contrary, numerical simulations provide more detailed results on the deposits morphology, but their rheological parameters can be difficult to constrain. Simulating all possible values can be time consuming and incompatible with operational requirements of rapid estimations. We propose and compare three operational methods to derive scaling power laws relating the landslide travel distance to the destabilized volume. The first one relies only on empirical relations, the second one on numerical simulations with back-analysis, and the third one combines both approaches. Their efficiency is tested on three case studies: the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4&times, 106 m3), the Frank Slide rock avalanche (36&times, 106 m3) and the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4&times, 106 m3) the Fei Tsui debris slide in Hong Kong (0.014&times, 106 m3). Purely numerical estimations yield the smallest uncertainty, but the uncertainty on rheological parameters is difficult to quantify. Combining numerical and empirical approaches allows to reduce the uncertainty of estimation by up to 50%, in comparison to purely empirical estimations. However, it may also induces a bias in the estimation, though observations always lie in the 95% prediction intervals. We also show that empirical estimations fail to model properly the dependence between volume and travel distance, particularly for small landslides (&lt, 20,000 &lt, 0.02&times, 106 m3).

The Prêcheur river is located to the West of Montagne Pelée, in the Northern part of Martinique island. For several decades it has produced numerous lahars that directly threaten the Prêcheur village, at the mouth of the river. In recent years, the most important lahars have been correlated to massive collapses of the Samperre cliff, 9 km upstream from the sea, that create a reservoir of loose material at the bottom of the cliff. In 2010, a lahar started from this reservoir, destroyed a bridge and inundated part of the Prêcheur village. A new major period of collapses of the Samperre cliff started on 2 January 2018, involving more than 4 × 106 m3 of material. In the following days, intense rainfalls triggered several lahars that reached the Prêcheur village but remained confined in the river bed. Since then, lahars and collapses have continued to occur, even though their frequency has decreased with time and their intensity is smaller compared to the onset of the crisis. One single lahar overflowed the river bed on 22 February 2018 without significant impact on infrastructures.In this study, we test different possible scenarios to model the first and most important phase of the collapse of the Samperre cliff, that occurred in early January 2018, with the shallow-water model SHALTOP. We constrain the collapse geometry with photogrammetric 3D models and LIDAR topographic surveys, acquired in 2010 and in late January 2018. We also consider an intermediate volume to take into account a possible retreat of the cliff face between 2010 and 2018. The modeled traveled distances are compared to field observations. Finally, we use geomorphological and geological observations to identify potentially unstable structures within the cliff, and model the associated collapses.These simulations provide insights on the possible geometry (extent and depth) of the debris reservoir at the bottom of the cliff, after a major collapse episode. This is of prior importance in order to estimate the location and volume of future lahars. In order to investigate their dynamics, we model the major 2010 lahar, for which the initial debris reservoir volume is known (about 2 Mm3). We first simulate the progressive remobilization of the reservoir by water with the r.avaflow numerical code. In a second test, we impose instead a constant flow discharge upstream until the same volume has been released. We test different parameters to identify which ones have the most significant influence on the lahar travel time, from its initiation until it reaches the Prêcheur village.

International audience; In France, in the context of regulatory mapping (PPRNs –Prevention Plans of Natural Risk based on French regulatory rules), landslide hazard assessment follows an empirical approach and uses basic available data. Therefore, the results are closely linked to the quality of the expertise and divergent opinions may arise in some specific cases. In recent years, numerical approaches using GIS, the availability of new databases, the development of new acquisition tools in the field and web visualization services have improved the knowledge of phenomena and different landslide-prone areas. Numerical approaches using GIS, that allow the transparency and traceability of results, have various levels of complexity and require different quantities of input data. However, they are often neglected by experts and new data and tools are not currently used to develop regulatory mapping documents. Numerous scientific examples show that these numerical approaches, web services and new tools can be a significant help in improving knowledge and provide a credible alternative to the expert approach, even in a regulatory context such as a PPRN. Thus, through this synthesis carried out as part of the regulatory mapping of landslide hazards and risks in France, a state-of-the-art spatial assessment of current landslide hazards is performed. The new tools and newly available databases to support this type of analysis are then described. Finally, the perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches and new tools and data are discussed, leading to some considerations for the improvement of the current method of producing landslide hazard maps for PPRNs in France

National audience

International audience; Better understanding the pathways through which future socioeconomic changes might influence land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) is a crucial step in accurately assessing the resilience of societies to mountain hazards. Participatory foresight involving local stakeholders may help building fine-scale LULCC scenarios that are consistent with the likely evolution of mountain communities. This paper develops a methodology that combines participatory approaches in downscaling socioeconomic scenarios with LULCC modelling to assess future changes in mountain hazards, applied to a case study located in the French Pyrenees. Four spatially explicit local scenarios are built each including a narrative, two future land cover maps up to 2040 and 2100, and a set of quantified LULCC. Scenarios are then used to identify areas likely to encounter land cover changes (deforestation, reforestation, and encroachment) prone to affect gravitational hazards. In order to demonstrate their interest for decision-making, future land cover maps are used as input to a landslide hazard assessment model. Results highlight that reforestation will continue to be a major trend in all scenarios and confirm that the approach improves the accuracy of landslide hazard computations. This validates the interest of developing fine-scale LULCC models that account for the local knowledge of stakeholders.

We propose a model of network formation in a Tullock contest. Agents first form their partnerships and then choose their investment in the contest. While a link improves the strength of an agent, it also improves the position of her rival. It is thus not obvious that they decide to cooperate. We characterize all pairwise equilibrium networks and find that the network formation process can act as a barrier to entry to the contest. We then analyze the impact of network formation on total surplus and find that a social planner can increase total surplus by creating more asymmetry between agents, as long as this does not reduce the number of participating agents. We show that barriers to entry may either hurt total surplus, as the winner of the prize does not exploit all the possible network benefits, or improve total surplus since less rent is dissipated when competition becomes less fierce. Finally, when networking acts as an endogenous barrier to entry, no pairwise equilibrium network is efficient.

International audience

International audience; Mapping subsurface clay minerals is an important issue because they have particular behaviors in terms of mechanics and hydrology that directly affects assets laid at the surface such as buildings, houses, etc. They have a direct impact in ground stability due to their swelling capacities, constraining infiltration processes during flooding, especially when moisture is important. So detecting and characterizing clay mineral in soils serve urban planning issues and improve the risk reduction by predicting impacts of subsidence on houses and infrastruc-tures. High-resolution clay maps are thus needed with accurate indications on mineral species and abundances. Clay minerals, known as phyllosilicates, are divided in three main species: smectite, illite, and kaolinite. The smectite group highly contributes to the swelling behavior of soils, and because geotechnical soil analyses are expensive and time-consuming, it is urgent to develop new approaches for mapping clays' spatial distribution by using new technologies, e.g., ground spectrometer or remote hyperspectral cameras [0.4-2.5 μm]. These technics constitute efficient alternatives to conventional methods. We present in this chapter some recent results we got for characterizing clay species and their abundances from spectrometry, used either from a ground spectrometer or from hyperspectral cameras.

International audience; The investigation and monitoring of shallow hazards due to the presence of underground cavities remain a challenge for geophysical approaches. Thus, seismic surface waves have been tested in several recent research projects in order to detect and localize voids as well as to determine their geometries. Among these works, numerous numerical studies have proved the feasibility of Rayleigh waves to detect cavities. However, most imagery processes adapted to R waves are faced with difficulties when applying them to real data. This limitation points to a major problem: the interactions between Rayleigh waves and a cavity are complex, particularly in the case of dispersing and attenuating surrounding media. Here, a combined approach based on numerical and experimental data obtained in a reduced-scale measurement bench is conducted to better understand the seismic wave propagation phenomena involved in the presence of a cavity and define robust observables that can be used in field measurements. The observables bearing the cavity signature are studied qualitatively and quantitatively on numerical and experimental recordings. The latter take into account all the propagation phenomena involved. The observations are carried out on the vertical and horizontal component of the Rayleigh wave displacement. The selected observables are studied depending on non-dimensional cavity's parameters versus the frequency, that is the wavelength-to-size ratio and the wavelength-to-depth ratio. The effects of the cavity's parameters on the observables show particularities as a function of these components, such as a higher rate of the amplitude on the horizontal component as well as a perturbation of the direct seismic surface wave amplitude above the cavity, also higher on the horizontal component. This latter feature is particularly visible on the variation of the elliptical particle motion recorded at the surface. It can be linked to the mode conversions that occur in the vicinity of the cavity and which predominate on the horizontal component when the signal is normalized.

The Action Database (ADB) was developed during the ESPREssO project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) in order to store and analyze relevant ideas emerging during the project to deal with the challenges. It provides the opportunity to formalize discussions and to store their content in a synthetic format, as well as to collect experiences and evaluate the impacts they had at their respective scales of implementation and on different parameters. The major aim of the ESPREssO-ADB tool, and its main innovation, is to deal with multi-hazard and multi-challenge actions, in an international context and notably in a cross-border initiative. The ESPREssO project aimed at contributing to a new strategic vision on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) in Europe. To do so, stakeholders working with CCA and/or DRR in Europe were consulted to identify measures boosting adaptation or societies’ resilience. Each idea, measure or comment was stored and ranked in the ADB using qualitative criteria based on the Sendai Priorities and the SHIELD model proposed by the ESPREssO Team. Each action was assessed through multi-criteria analysis and effectiveness was approached under two different angles. The first one in line with the priorities of the Sendai Framework; and the second one with the SHIELD model. This model incorporate recommendations on how to optimize risk management capabilities through DRR. Positive actions had fed the Vision Paper and Guidelines produced by the project. This paper describes in details the ADB structure and the multi-criteria analysis performed.

Ce numéro de Regards économiques analyse le décret qui organise les inscriptions en première année secondaire en Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles. Le décret inscription requiert que les parents transmettent une liste de maximum dix établissements dans lesquels ils aimeraient inscrire leur enfant, classés dans l’ordre de leurs préférences. En parallèle, le décret fixe les critères qui sont utilisés pour déterminer à quels enfants donner priorité lorsque la demande pour un établissement excède son nombre de places disponibles. L’allocation des places disponibles est réalisée par un algorithme se basant sur les préférences transmises par les parents et les critères de priorité. Dans la mesure du possible, les élèves souhaiteraient pouvoir s’inscrire dans les établissements qu’ils estiment leur convenir le mieux. Le décret inscription atteint-il cet objectif ? Le rapport 2018 de la Commission Interréseaux des Inscriptions révèle qu’au 11 avril 2018, 91,13% des élèves de la Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles (FWB) étaient assurés de disposer d’une place dans « l’établissement de leur première préférence ». A Bruxelles, ils étaient 77,85% dans ce cas. Si ces chiffres paraissent encourageants, il convient cependant de les relativiser car ils mesurent le pourcentage d’élèves pouvant s’inscrire dans l’établissement qu’ils ont classé en haut de leur liste. Mais le décret actuel incite les parents à ne pas classer les écoles dans l’ordre de leurs vraies préférences parce qu’il alloue 80% des places disponibles dans une école sur base des premiers choix et parce que la priorité d’un élève augmente dans un établissement qu’il a bien classé. En classant les écoles de manière stratégique, les élèves peuvent parfois obtenir une meilleure affectation qu’en les classant selon l’ordre de leurs préférences. Dès lors, ces chiffres ne nous disent pas vraiment quelle est la proportion d’élèves qui ont obtenu leur école préférée. Nous expliquons dans cet article que les comportements stratégiques des parents entraînent une série de désavantages. Le décret complexifie la tâche des parents, il favorise les élèves les mieux informés au détriment des autres, il constitue une source de stress lors de la réalisation du classement et de remords une fois les résultats connus, il peut conduire la direction d’établissement à influencer le classement choisi par les parents, il peut générer des situations où des échanges d’établissement permettraient aux élèves d’améliorer leur situation, il ne garantit pas à un élève une place dans une école dans laquelle il a une priorité plus élevée qu’un autre élève pouvant s’y inscrire et il favorise les élèves qui ont des options externes au détriment de ceux qui n’en ont pas. Par contre, il peut induire une allocation des élèves telle que ceux qui ont une préférence forte pour un établissement prisé peuvent s’y inscrire parce qu’ils prennent le risque de classer cette école en première position, alors que d’autres optent pour des stratégies sûres. Quelle est l’ampleur de ces comportements stratégiques et surtout quels sont leurs effets ? La réponse à ces questions dépend notamment des tensions entre l’offre et la demande dans les établissements ciblés par les élèves. S’ils avaient la garantie de pouvoir s’inscrire dans une école qu’ils apprécient, même si cette école n’est pas celle qu’ils préfèrent, le décret inscription et les classements stratégiques qu’il induit ne poseraient pas de problèmes. A l’inverse, lorsque tous les établissements dans lesquels des parents souhaiteraient inscrire leur enfant sont fortement demandés, la position de chaque école dans le classement est cruciale. En effet, des élèves peuvent dans ce cas se retrouver sans établissement parce qu’ils ont classé les écoles d’une manière plutôt que d’une autre. Les classements stratégiques sont de ce fait déterminants dans les zones densément peuplées en regard des places qui y sont disponibles (Nord-Est de Bruxelles) ou pour des parents qui veulent absolument inscrire leurs enfants dans un établissement qui a une bonne réputation. Gardons cependant en tête que ces difficultés ne sont pas le résultat de l’utilisation d’un algorithme mais proviennent plutôt d’une offre insuffisante en regard de la demande. Si les effets pervers liés aux classements stratégiques étaient jugés trop importants, il y aurait alors lieu de remplacer le décret inscription par une procédure non manipulable. Notons qu’un tel changement n’implique pas de modifier les critères déterminant les priorités attribuées aux élèves. Par contre, comme expliqué dans Maniquet (2009), changer l’algorithme modifiera la performance de la procédure en termes d’efficacité et de respect des priorités fixées par le décret, que ce soit en l’améliorant ou en la détériorant. Le choix d’une autre procédure peut être éclairé par les résultats des nombreuses études scientifiques qui ont proposé et évalué différentes procédures d’inscription centralisées.

Acceso electrónico sólo desde el IGME, Landslides are one of the most widespread geohazards in Europe, producing significant social and economic impacts. Rapid population growth in urban areas throughout many countries in Europe and extreme climatic scenarios can considerably increase landslide risk in the near future. Variability exists between European countries in both the statutory treatment of landslide risk and the use of official assessment guidelines. This suggests that a European Landslides Directive that provides a common legal framework for dealing with landslides is necessary. With this long-term goal in mind, this work analyzes the landslide databases from the Geological Surveys of Europe focusing on their interoperability and completeness. The same landslide classification could be used for the 849,543 landslide records from the Geological Surveys, from which 36% are slides, 10% are falls, 20% are flows, 11% are complex slides, and 24% either remain unclassified or correspond to another typology. Most of them are mapped with the same symbol at a scale of 1:25,000 or greater, providing the necessary information to elaborate European-scale susceptibility maps for each landslide type. A landslide density map was produced for the available records from the Geological Surveys (LANDEN map) showing, for the first time, 210,544 km2 landslide-prone areas and 23,681 administrative areas where the Geological Surveys from Europe have recorded landslides. The comparison of this map with the European landslide susceptibility map (ELSUS 1000 v1) is successful for most of the territory (69.7%) showing certain variability between countries. This comparison also permitted the identification of 0.98 Mkm2 (28.9%) of landslide-susceptible areas without records from the Geological Surveys, which have been used to evaluate the landslide database completeness. The estimated completeness of the landslide databases (LDBs) from the Geological Surveys is 17%, varying between 1 and 55%. This variability is due to the different landslide strategies adopted by each country. In some of them, landslide mapping is systematic; others only record damaging landslides, whereas in others, landslide maps are only available for certain regions or local areas. Moreover, in most of the countries, LDBs from the Geological Surveys co-exist with others owned by a variety of public institutions producing LDBs at variable scales and formats. Hence, a greater coordination effort should be made by all the institutions working in landslide mapping to increase data integration and harmonization., Earth Observation and Geohazards Expert Group (EOEG), EuroGeoSurveys, the Geological Surveys of Europe, Bélgica, Geohazards InSAR Laboratory and Modeling Group, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España, Risk and Prevention Division, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, Francia, Engineering Geology Department, Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration, Grecia, GeoHazard team, Geological Institute of Romania, Rumanía, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Eslovenia, Croatian Geological Survey, Croacia, Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Geological Survey of Italy, Italia, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, Suiza, Geological Survey of Austria, Austria, Polish Geological Institute, National Research Institute, Polonia, Geological Survey of Ireland, Irlanda, Czech Geological Survey, República Checa, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Alemania, Geological Survey of Norway, Noruega, Cyprus Geological Survey, Chipre, Geological Survey of Sweden, Suecia, Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya, España, British Geological Survey, Reino Unido, Geological Survey of Slovakia, Eslovaquia, Geological Survey of Lithuania, Lituania, Federalni zavod za geologiju, Bosnia y Herzegovina, Geological Survey of Estonia, Estonia, Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia, Portugal, Geological Survey of Hungary, Hungría, Norwegian Water and energy Directorate of Norway, Noruega

We analyze experimentally behavior in a finitely repeated public goods game. One of the main results of the literature is that contributions are initially high, and gradually decrease over time. Two explanations of this pattern have been developed: (i) the population is composed of free-riders, who never contribute, and conditional cooperators, who contribute if others do so as well; (ii) strategic players contribute to sustain mutually beneficial future cooperation, but reduce their contributions as the end of the game approaches. This paper contributes to bridging the gap between these views. We analyze preferences and strategic ability in one design by manipulating group composition to form homogeneous groups on both dimensions. Our results highlight the interaction between the two: groups that sustain high levels of cooperation are composed of members who share a common inclination toward cooperation and have the strategic abilities to recognize and reap the benefits of enduring cooperation.

The dynamics of the 2–12 January 2010 effusive eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano were examined through seismic and infrasound records, time-lapse photography, SO2 flux measurements, deformation data, and direct observations. Digital elevation models were constructed for four periods of the eruption, thus providing an assessment of the temporal evolution of the morphology, the volume and the extrusion rate of the lava flow. These data were compared to the continuous recording of the seismic and infrasonic waves, and a linear relationship was found between the seismic energy of the tremor and the lava extrusion rate. This relationship is supported by data from three other summit eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise and gives total volume and average lava extrusion rate in good agreement with previous studies. We can therefore provide an estimate of the lava extrusion rate for the January 2010 eruption with a very high temporal resolution. We found an average lava extrusion rate of 2.4 m3s−1 with a peak of 106.6 m3s−1 during the initial lava fountaining phase. We use the inferred average lava extrusion rate during the lava fountaining phase (30.23 m3s−1) to estimate the value of the initial overpressure in the magma reservoir, which we found to range from 3.7×106 Pa to 5.9×106 Pa. Finally, based on the estimated initial overpressure, the volume of magma expelled during the lava fountaining phase and geodetic data, we inferred the volume of the magma reservoir using a simple Mogi model, between 0.25 km3 and 0.54 km3, which is in good agreement with previous studies.

International audience; This study presents a new laboratory reflectance spectroscopy method that characterizes soil spectra in terms of the positions, depths, asymmetries at half depth, and widths at half depth of the clay diagnostic absorption bands (1400 nm, 1900 nm, and 2200 nm). The calculation of the geometrical parameters, which is performed using continuum-removed spectra, is rapid and simply applicable to a large number of samples and, therefore, can be used to cover large areas. The illite, montmorillonite, and kaolinite contents in mixtures strongly influence the depths of the absorption bands at approximately 1400 nm (D1400), approximately 1900 nm (D1900), and approximately 2200 nm (D2200), respectively. The D1400, D1900, and D2200 parameters are used to create 3D (using D1900/D2200, D1400/D1900, and D2200/D1400 as the axes) and 2D (using D1400/D1900 and D1900/D2200 as the axes) diagrams of synthetic mixtures. In the 3D and 2D diagrams, the plotted mixtures form a triangular shape. The mixtures composed of two clay minerals define the external envelope of the triangular shape, and the mixtures formed of three clay minerals are located inside the triangular shape. Using these 3D and 2D diagrams as standard templates, the clay compositions of natural soils were estimated from (i) the average clay compositions of the three closest mixtures when the soil samples were located inside the triangular distribution of mixtures and (ii) the closest mixture when the soil samples were located outside of the triangular distribution of mixtures. Comparison with X-ray diffraction demonstrates the reliability of the predictions of montmorillonite content, which were used to estimate the swelling potential of the soils. This method offers a simple, fast, and low-cost approach to classifying soils into four swelling classes based on comparison with the methylene blue test, and it could be used as a complementary or alternative method to traditional geotechnical analysis.

We develop a simple model to analyze the timing of contests. When the odds of winning a contest are exogenously given – we show that if either the players discount the future or if the total cost of contest is smaller in the future – there exist subgame perfect equilibria where both players settle, anticipating a contest in the future. With endogenous efforts, the aggregate efforts expanded in a contest are smaller if the contest occurs in the future when the relative effort productivities remain constant or diverge over time, thus creating scope for delay in contests. When the effort productivities converge over time, the total efforts may be greater under a future contest. As a consequence, players either settle over the two periods, or else they initiate a contest immediately.

World Landslide Forum (4º. 2017. Liubliana, Eslovenia), Exposure to hazards is expected to increase in Europe, due to rapid population growth in urban areas and the escalation of urbanization throughout many countries. In the framework of the European Geological Surveys (EGS), the Earth Observation and Geohazards Expert Group (EOEG) has carried out a survey based enquiry regarding the integration of geohazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, ground subsidence, floods and others) into urban and land-use planning. Responses from 19 European countries and 5 regions reveal heterogeneous policies across national borders. 17% of the countries have not yet implemented any legal measures to integrate geohazards into urban and land-use plans and half of the participating countries have no official methodological guides to construct geohazard maps. Additionally, there is a scarce knowledge about real social impacts of geohazards and resulting disasters in many of the countries, although they have a significant impact on their national economies. This overview stresses the need for a common legislative framework and homogenization of the national legislations as well as mutual guidelines which adopt the principles applicable to the management of geohazards and explain the process to be followed in the production of hazard documentation. This is especially relevant in case of landslide and subsidence hazards; although those are of great importance in Europe, there are no common guidelines and practices similar to Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risk. Based on their expertise, EuroGeoSurveys (EGS) have the potential to coordinate this activity in European geohazard guidelines and to promote the interaction among stakeholders., Geohazards InSAR Laboratory and Modeling Group, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, España, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières, Francia, Engineering Geology Department, Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration, Grecia, GeoHazard team, Geological Institute of Romania, Rumanía, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Eslovenia, Croatian Geological Survey, Croacia, Geological Survey of Italy, Italia, Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, Suiza, Geological Survey of Austria, Austria, Polish Geological Institute, National Research Institute, Polonia, Geological Survey of Ireland, Irlanda, Czech Geological Survey, República Checa, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Alemania, Geological Survey of Norway, Noruega, Cyprus Geological Survey, Chipre, Geological Survey of Sweden, Suecia, Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya, España, British Geological Survey, Reino Unido, Geological Survey of Slovakia, Eslovaquia, Geological Survey of Lithuania, Lituania, Federalni Zavod Za Geologiju, Nigeria, Geological Survey of Estonia, Estonia, Laboratorio Nacional de Energia e Minas, Portugal, Geological Survey of the Republic of Srpska, Bosnia y Herzegovina