1. Could prophylactic antivirals reduce dengue incidence in a high-prevalence endemic area?
- Author
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Jafari Y, Brady OJ, Biggs JR, Lien LT, Mai HK, Nguyen HAT, Van Loock M, Herrera-Taracena G, Menten J, Iwasaki C, Takegata M, Kitamura N, Do Thai H, Minh BX, Morita K, Anh DD, Clifford S, Prem K, Hafalla J, Edmunds WJ, Yoshida LM, Hibberd ML, and Hué S
- Subjects
- Humans, Vietnam epidemiology, Incidence, Endemic Diseases prevention & control, Male, Female, Adult, Disease Outbreaks prevention & control, Adolescent, Prevalence, Young Adult, Child, Middle Aged, Child, Preschool, Dengue epidemiology, Dengue prevention & control, Antiviral Agents therapeutic use
- Abstract
Prophylactic drugs against dengue are currently under development. In this study, we explored how such prophylactic approaches might affect dengue cases in four communes of Nha Trang City, Vietnam. A community level dengue transmission survey indicated high levels of previous exposure to dengue (89.7%; 95% CI: 87.2,92.0). We fitted a spatially explicit model to an observed outbreak and simulated likely effectiveness of Case-Area Targeted Interventions (CATI) and One-Time Mass Distribution (OTMD) of drug and vector control strategies. Increasing radius and effectiveness and decreasing delay of CATI was most effective, with drugs being more effective in averting dengue cases than vector control. Using an OTMD approach early in the outbreak required the least number of treatments to avert a case, suggesting that OTMD strategies should be considered as pre-emptive rather than reactive strategies. These findings show that pre-emptive interventions can substantially reduce the burden of dengue outbreaks in endemic settings., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: MVL, GHT and JM are employees of Johnson & Johnson., (Copyright: © 2024 Jafari et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
- Published
- 2024
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