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This article extend the body of knowledge in the environmental sustainability literature by exploring the spillover effect across the United States' carbon emissions from sectoral energy consumption: from the commercial sector (CEM), transport sector (TEM), industrial sector (IEM), residential sector (REM), electric power sector (EEM). From this perspective, this study accounted for world pandemic uncertainty index (WPU) in retrospect of global episodes (coronavirus pandemic), crude oil price (WTI), and disposable income per capita (DIC). To this end, the novel spillover methodology of Diebold and Yilmaz is employed in the context of the United State for the period January 1996-February 2020. Our Study shows that total spillover effect from the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is 51.1%, while the rest 48.9% of the forecast variance is attributed to the idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, a significant contribution of 113.9% spillover effect from uncertainty due to pandemics to TME, IEM, REM, EEM, CEM, DIC, and WTI. Our study adds to the spillover index and computed the net spillover index between the outlined variables that shows the variance between the contribution of spillover to and from the spillover dynamics. Importantly, the study found that WTI, DIC, IEM, EEM, and CEM received a net spillover shock of 63.80%, 25.90%, 48.80%, 26.10%, and 53.3% from the total spillover index. However, WPU, TEM and REM are a net transmitter of spillover effect of 111.7%, 56.90%, and 48.50% respectively. These outcomes are instructive as decision-makers, stakeholders, and players in the energy sector and oil/energy market are required to pay more focus on sectors that are a net transmitter of spillover shocks such as the world pandemic uncertainty and as well those that are net receivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the extent to which major US airlines respond to one another in quality of service improvements.Design/methodology/approach Utilizing monthly data, the authors estimate a five-equation vector autoregressive model to determine which airline leads or follows others in quality of service improvements.Findings This study found that the five major airlines make interrelated decisions when responding to customer complaints concerning flight problems, over-sales, reservations, ticketing, boarding, and customer service. Every airline either responds to or influences the changes in customer complaints faced by at least one other airline, while some airlines do both. However, only one such relationship was found when examining if airlines change the percent of flight delays they have control over in response to changes in flight delays faced by another airline.Practical implications The number of passenger complaints against an airline can be influenced by the airline, as can the number of carrier-caused flight delays. The industry leaders in responsiveness to consumer complaints are US Airways and United. However, airlines do not, as a group, respond to the carrier-caused delays of their competitors. The prescription to improve airline service vis-à-vis flight delays is simple: tell passengers why flights are delayed. To protect or gain market share, airlines would compete for customers by minimizing flight delays in a similar manor to how they respond to customer complaints.Originality/value No other paper that the authors are aware of has addressed the issue of identifying leaders and followers in the US airline industry regarding changes in service quality as reflected by changes in passenger complaints and flight delays. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of shocks to exchange rate and output uncertainty (volatility) on real private fixed investment (FI) in Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. The analysis is conducted using vector autoregressive models that contain the price level, real output, the volatility of real output, the real exchange rate, the volatility of the real exchange rate, an interest rate and FI. The results yield important public policy implications with regard to the impact of output volatility of FI. Our analysis indicates that volatility shocks, measured as output volatility or exchange rate volatility, do not have a significant impact on FI for any country in our study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the dynamic reaction of stock market herding in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan to unexpected shocks from domestic and U.S. market factors. In China and Taiwan, herding is more pronounced, and the investors tend to herd with the rising stock market returns. Overconfident investors will herd on the subsequent trading days under market stress. Compared with the response to the domestic market factors, the responses of herding in the Greater China stock market to the U.S. market factors are weaker. After the 2007–8 financial crisis, the U.S. market factors highly explain the forecast error variance of herding in the Shanghai A-share and Taiwan markets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article presents a monthly vector autoregressive (VAR) model of housing prices, the federal funds rate, foreclosures, the unemployment rate and the mortgage interest rate for the United States for the period of 2000(1)–2010(8). Impulse response functions show that negative shocks to the federal funds rate increased housing prices. The interaction effect between the foreclosure rate and the housing prices shows that an initial shock to the foreclosure rate produced further increases in the foreclosure rate through a reduction in housing prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates volatility spillovers between the global crude oil market and the stock markets of the global oil stock markets (Russian, Canada, China, Kuwait, and the USA) pre and after the COVID-19 pandemic. We use wavelet Granger causality methods to study the volatility spillovers between global oil stock markets, mainly from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2021. Our Results (1) shows that WTI and Brent oil prices had a negative mean return before COVID-19 but a positive mean return during the pandemic spread. Other Results (2) find the positive, significantly lowest, and highest frequency during the COVID-19 outbreak for all selected countries. The results also show that the link between oil WTI & Brent prices and stock markets return in the lowest (33-66 days) and highest frequency range (4-16) before the Covid-19 epidemic, especially in the first quarter of 2020. Before the COVID-19 period, the Russian oil stock market is seriously prejudiced with oil prices on a modest scale, but not after the pandemic's start. This study also perceives direction opposite between the COVID-19 period. The Canadian and United States America oil and stock markets influence the lowest scale in the previous COVID-19 sample for the U.S. market. Moreover, this paper exposed that oil marketing highest oil futures in their portfolios than stock shares for all times. We found that oil price shocks had a more significant impact on the stock markets of the United States and Canada than on the stock markets of other countries., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Purpose – In all existing theoretical papers on causality it is assumed that the lag length is known a priori. However, in applied research the lag length has to be selected before testing for causality. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that in investigating the effectiveness of various Granger causality testing methodologies, including those using bootstrapping, the lag length choice should be endogenized, by which we mean the data-driven preselection of lag length should be taken into account. Design/methodology/approach – The size and power of a bootstrap test with endogenized lag-length choice are investigated by simulation methods. A statistical software component is produced to implement the test, which is available online. Findings – The simulation results show that this test performs well. An application of the test provides empirical support for the hypothesis that the UAE financial market is integrated with the US market. Social implications – The empirical results based on this test are expected to be more precise. Originality/value – This paper considers a bootstrap test for causality with endogenous lag order. This test has superior properties compared to existing causality tests in terms of size, with similar if not better power and it is robust to ARCH effects that usually characterize financial data. Practitioners interested in causal inference based on time series data might find the test valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models, both spatial and non-spatial (univariate and multivariate), for the twenty largest states of the US economy, using quarterly data over the period 1976:Q1-1994:Q4; and then forecasts one-to-four quarters-ahead real house price growth over the out-of-sample horizon of 1995:Q1-2006:Q4. The forecasts are evaluated by comparing them with those from an unrestricted classical Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the corresponding univariate variant of the same. Finally, the models that produce the minimum average Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs), are used to predict the downturns in the real house price growth over the recent period of 2007:Q1-2008:Q1. The results show that the BVARs, in whatever form they might be, are the best performing models in 19 of the 20 states. Moreover, these models do a fair job in predicting the downturn in 18 of the 19 states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US and UK stock returns are highly positively correlated over the period 1918–99. Using VAR-based variance decompositions, we investigate the nature of this comovement. Excess return innovations are decomposed into news about future dividends, real interest rates, and excess returns. We find that the latter news component is the most important in explaining stock return volatility in both the USA and the UK and that stock return news is highly correlated across countries. This is evidence against Beltratti and Shiller's(1993) finding that the comovement of US and UK stock markets can be explained in terms of a simple present value model. We interpret the comovement as indicating that equity premia in the two countries are hit by common real shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 3SLS econometric model is used to estimate price elasticities of supply and demand for domestically produced and imported canned tuna in the U.S. market. In addition, a VAR model is developed to examine the relations between imports and domestically produced canned tuna. For domestically produced canned tuna, a 3SLS estimation of a structural econometric model yielded a coefficient for price elasticity of supply of 0.2 and of own-price demand of -0.3. Such price inelasticities are expected of a fishery exploited at or near its maximum yields (inelastic supply), and a consumer product widely viewed as almost a necessity in a well-stocked pantry (inelastic demand). In addition, the model yielded a cross-price elasticity of demand with respect to the price of imported canned tuna of 0.45. Additional results include an income elasticity U.S. demand for domestically packed tuna of 0.83; a cross-price elasticity with the price of bread (a complement) of -0.33, a cross-price elasticity for the price of ground meat (a substitute) of 0.30. With respect to imported canned tuna in the U.S. market, the corresponding elasticities estimated in the model are -1.3 (own-price demand), 3.5 (income elasticity),-1.2 (cross-price with the price of bread) and 2.5 (cross-price with the price of ground meat). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Causal relations and dynamic interactions among equity returns in ten countries for the period 1983-1994 are analysed. An innovation accounting approach based on a multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to estimate the proportion of each market return's forecast error attributable to innovations in foreign market returns. Three major results appear. The variance decompositions indicate a strong degree of economic interaction among stock markets. The US stock market has a considerable influence on stock market performance in almost every country, while there is no substantial inter-continental influence from the European stock markets on the world's two largest equity markets in New York and Tokyo. Finally, the pattern of the impulse-response functions illustrates a rapid international transmission of stock market events, supporting the hypothesis of international stock market efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]