1. Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
- Author
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Monod M, Blenkinsop A, Xi X, Hebert D, Bershan S, Tietze S, Baguelin M, Bradley VC, Chen Y, Coupland H, Filippi S, Ish-Horowicz J, McManus M, Mellan T, Gandy A, Hutchinson M, Unwin HJT, van Elsland SL, Vollmer MAC, Weber S, Zhu H, Bezancon A, Ferguson NM, Mishra S, Flaxman S, Bhatt S, and Ratmann O
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Basic Reproduction Number, COVID-19 mortality, COVID-19 prevention & control, COVID-19 Vaccines, Cell Phone, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Infant, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics prevention & control, Schools, United States epidemiology, Young Adult, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 transmission, Epidemics prevention & control
- Abstract
After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)
- Published
- 2021
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