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Background: The safety of restarting angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) after acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. There is concern that previous users do not restart ACEI/ARB despite ongoing indications. We sought to determine the risk of adverse events after an episode of AKI, comparing prior ACEI/ARB users who stop treatment to those who continue., Methods: We conducted two parallel cohort studies in English and Swedish primary and secondary care, 2006-2016. We used multivariable Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for hospital admission with heart failure (primary analysis), AKI, stroke, or death within 2 years after hospital discharge following a first AKI episode. We compared risks of admission between people who stopped ACEI/ARB treatment to those who were prescribed ACEI/ARB within 30 days of AKI discharge. We undertook sensitivity analyses, including propensity score-matched samples, to explore the robustness of our results., Results: In England, we included 7303 people with AKI hospitalisation following recent ACEI/ARB therapy for the primary analysis. Four thousand three (55%) were classified as stopping ACEI/ARB based on no prescription within 30 days of discharge. In Sweden, we included 1790 people, of whom 1235 (69%) stopped treatment. In England, no differences were seen in subsequent risk of heart failure (HR 1.10; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.93-1.30), AKI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.77-1.05), or stroke (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.71-1.38), but there was an increased risk of death (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.15-1.41) in those who stopped ACEI/ARB compared to those who continued. Results were similar in Sweden: no differences were seen in risk of heart failure (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.73-1.13) or AKI (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.54-1.21). However, no increased risk of death was seen (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.78-1.13) and stroke was less common in people who stopped ACEI/ARB (HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.34-0.93). Results were similar across all sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: Previous ACEI/ARB users who continued treatment after an episode of AKI did not have an increased risk of heart failure or subsequent AKI compared to those who stopped the drugs.

Background: Peripheral glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neurofilament light chain (NfL) are sensitive markers of neuroinflammation and neuronal damage. Previous studies with highly selected participants have shown that peripheral GFAP and NfL levels are elevated in the pre-clinical phase of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia. However, the predictive value of GFAP and NfL for dementia requires more evidence from population-based cohorts. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study to evaluate UK Biobank participants enrolled from 2006 to 2010 using plasma GFAP and NfL measurements measured by Olink Target Platform and prospectively followed up for dementia diagnosis. Primary outcome was the risk of clinical diagnosed dementia. Secondary outcomes were cognition. Linear regression was used to assess the associations between peripheral GFAP and NfL with cognition. Cox proportional hazard models with cross-validations were used to estimate associations between elevated GFAP and NfL with risk of dementia. All models were adjusted for covariates. Results: A subsample of 48,542 participants in the UK Biobank with peripheral GFAP and NfL measurements were evaluated. With an average follow-up of 13.18 ± 2.42 years, 1312 new all-cause dementia cases were identified. Peripheral GFAP and NfL increased up to 15 years before dementia diagnosis was made. After strictly adjusting for confounders, increment in NfL was found to be associated with decreased numeric memory and prolonged reaction time. A greater annualized rate of change in GFAP was significantly associated with faster global cognitive decline. Elevation of GFAP (hazard ratio (HR) ranges from 2.25 to 3.15) and NfL (HR ranges from 1.98 to 4.23) increased the risk for several types of dementia. GFAP and NfL significantly improved the predictive values for dementia using previous models (area under the curve (AUC) ranges from 0.80 to 0.89, C-index ranges from 0.86 to 0.91). The AD genetic risk score and number of APOE*E4 alleles strongly correlated with GFAP and NfL levels. Conclusions: These results suggest that peripheral GFAP and NfL are potential biomarkers for the early diagnosis of dementia. In addition, anti-inflammatory therapies in the initial stages of dementia may have potential benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effect of dyslipidemia on kidney disease outcomes has been inconclusive, and it requires further clarification. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the effects of genetic factors on the association between dyslipidemia and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) using polygenic risk score (PRS). Methods: We analyzed data from 373,523 participants from the UK Biobank aged 40–69 years with no history of CKD. Baseline data included plasma levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride, as well as genome-wide genotype data for PRS. Our primary outcome, incident CKD, was defined as a composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and CKD diagnosis according to International Classification of Disease-10 codes. The effects of the association between lipid levels and PRS on incident CKD were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the effect of this association, we introduced multiplicative interaction terms into a multivariate analysis model and performed subgroup analysis stratified by PRS tertiles. Results: In total, 4,424 participants developed CKD. In the multivariable analysis, PRS was significantly predictive of the risk of incident CKD as both a continuous variable and a categorized variable. In addition, lower total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and higher triglyceride levels were significantly associated with the risk of incident CKD. There were interactions between triglycerides and intermediate and high PRS, and the interactions were inversely associated with the risk of incident CKD. Conclusions: This study showed that PRS presented significant predictive power for incident CKD and individuals in the low-PRS group had a higher risk of triglyceride-related incident CKD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies have yielded conflicting findings regarding the association between circulating lipids and lipid-lowering drugs with urinary stones, and the causal relationship between the two remains inconclusive. Objective: This study aimed to assess the causal relationship between circulating lipids (Triglycerides [TG], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], apolipoprotein A [APOA], apolipoprotein B [APOB] and Pure hypercholesterolaemia), lipid-lowering drugs (HMGCR [HMG-CoA reductase] inhibitors and PCSK9[Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9] inhibitors) and the risk of urinary stones, using genetic data. Methods: Genetic instrumental variables (GIVs) for circulating lipids and lipid-lowering drugs were obtained from the UK Biobank and existing literature. Outcome data were extracted from a genetic association database with 3,625 urinary stone cases and 459,308 controls. Two-sample MR analysis, employing the TwoSampleMR software package in R 4.2.3, was conducted to assess the associations between multiple exposures. The primary outcome was determined using the inverse variance weighted (IVW) method for the causal relationship between exposure and outcome, while additional methods such as MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode were utilized as supplementary analyses. Robustness of the Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis results was assessed through leave-one-out analysis and funnel plots. Results: The MR analysis revealed a significant association between elevated TG levels per 1 standard deviation and the occurrence of urinary stones (odds ratio [OR]: 1.002, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.000-1.003, P = 0.010). However, no significant association was observed between factors other than TG exposure and the risk of urinary stone occurrence across all methods(LDL-C: [OR], 1.001; 95% [CI], 1.000-1.003, P=0.132;HDL-C: [OR], 0.999; 95% [CI], 0.998-1.000, P=0.151;APOA:[OR] being 1.000 (95% [CI], 0.999-1.001, P=0.721;APOB: [OR] of 1.001 (95% [CI], 1.000-1.002, P=0.058;Pure hypercholesterolaemia: [OR] of 1.015 (95% [CI], 0.976-1.055, P=0.455) and lipid-lowering drugs (HMGCR inhibitors: [OR], 0.997; 95% [CI], 0.990-1.003, P=0.301 and PCSK9 inhibitors:[OR], 1.002; 95% [CI], 1.000-1.005, P=0.099). Conclusion: Our findings provide conclusive evidence supporting a causal relationship between an increased risk of urinary stones and elevated serum TG levels. However, we did not find a significant association between urinary stone occurrence and the levels of LDL-C, HDL-C, APOA, APOB, Pure hypercholesterolaemia and lipid-lowering drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection., Methods: The IARC-ARCAGE European case-control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics., Results: 1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64)., Conclusion: We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction., (© 2024 The Author(s). Head & Neck published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Commencing work at an early age has been linked to various risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), such as shift work and intensive job strain. However, the relationship between starting work too early and CHD risk remains largely unclear. We examined the association between age at job initiation and the risk of CHD. Methods: UK Biobank participants aged 38 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease who provided data on their age at job initiation were included. The primary outcome was CHD, which was ascertained using hospital and death records. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs) for the association between age at job initiation and CHD were calculated using multivariable Cox regression. Results: Of the 501,971 participants, 114,418 eligible participants were included in the final analysis. The median age at job initiation was 19.0 years. During the mean follow-up of 12.6 years, 6,130 (5.4%) first CHD events occurred. We observed that age at job initiation was inversely associated with CHD (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97–0.99), and the association was potentially J-shaped. The HRs for the < 17-year, 17–18-year, and 19–21-year age groups were 1.29 (95%CI 1.18–1.41), 1.12 (95% CI 1.03–1.22) and 1.05 (95% CI 0.97–1.14), respectively, compared with those of the ≥ 22-year group. Conclusions: Age at job initiation was associated with incident CHD, which was independent of socioeconomic status. Participants who commenced employment before the age of 19 years exhibited a higher risk of developing CHD later in adulthood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

3D-speckle tracking echocardiography(3D-STE) allows simultaneous assessment of ejection fraction(EF) and multidirectional strains, but its prognostic utility in the general population is unknown. We investigated if 3D-STE strains predicted a composite of major cardiac endpoints(MACE) beyond cardiovascular risk factors(CVDRF), and whether they were superior to 3D-EF. 529 participants in SABRE, a UK-based tri-ethnic general population cohort (69±6y; 76.6% male) with acceptable 3D-STE imaging were studied. Associations between 3D-EF or multidirectional myocardial strains and MACE(coronary heart disease(fatal/non-fatal), heart failure hospitalization, new-onset arrhythmia and cardiovascular mortality) were determined using Cox regression including adjustment for CVDRF and 2D-EF. Whether 3D-EF, global longitudinal strain(3D-GLS) and principle tangential strain(3D-PTS/3D-strain) improved cardiovascular risk stratification over CVDRF was investigated using a likelihood ratio test on a series of nested Cox proportional hazards models and Harrell's C statistics. During follow-up(median, 12y), there were 92 events. 3D-EF, 3D-GLS and 3D-PTS and 3D-RS were associated with MACE in unadjusted and models adjusted for CVDRF but not CVDRF+2D-EF. Compared to 3D-EF, both 3D-GLS and 3D-PTS slightly improved the predictive value over CVDRF for MACE, but the improvement was modest(C statistic increased from 0.698(0.647, 0.749) to 0.715(0.663, 0.766) comparing CVDRF with CVDRF +3D-GLS). 3D-STE-derived LV myocardial strains predicted MACE in a multi-ethnic general population sample of elderly individuals from the UK; however the added prognostic value of 3D-STE myocardial strains was small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mortality prediction is critical on long-term kidney replacement therapy (KRT), both for individual treatment decisions and resource planning. Many mortality prediction models already exist, but as a major shortcoming most of them have only been validated internally. This leaves reliability and usefulness of these models in other KRT populations, especially foreign, unknown. Previously two models were constructed for one- and two-year mortality prediction of Finnish patients starting long-term dialysis. These models are here internationally validated in KRT populations of the Dutch NECOSAD Study and the UK Renal Registry (UKRR). Methods: We validated the models externally on 2051 NECOSAD patients and on two UKRR patient cohorts (5328 and 45493 patients). We performed multiple imputation for missing data, used c-statistic (AUC) to assess discrimination, and evaluated calibration by plotting average estimated probability of death against observed risk of death. Results: Both prediction models performed well in the NECOSAD population (AUC 0.79 for the one-year model and 0.78 for the two-year model). In the UKRR populations, performance was slightly weaker (AUCs: 0.73 and 0.74). These are to be compared to the earlier external validation in a Finnish cohort (AUCs: 0.77 and 0.74). In all tested populations, our models performed better for PD than HD patients. Level of death risk (i.e., calibration) was well estimated by the one-year model in all cohorts but was somewhat overestimated by the two-year model. Conclusions: Our prediction models showed good performance not only in the Finnish but in foreign KRT populations as well. Compared to the other existing models, the current models have equal or better performance and fewer variables, thus increasing models' usability. The models are easily accessible on the web. These results encourage implementing the models into clinical decision-making widely among European KRT populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A survey to gain insight into anticoagulant prescribing practice in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD) across the UK was disseminated via renal and haematology networks. Areas of anticoagulant use included patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), requiring thromboprophylaxis for VTE, Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and nephrotic syndrome. An online-survey was disseminated via British Haematology Society, UK Kidney Association, and Renal Pharmacy Group over a five month period. All responses were voluntary and anonymous. Among 117 responses there were 49 nephrology doctors, 47 renal pharmacists and 20 haematology clinicians. A specialist multidisciplinary team to discuss the specific anticoagulant management of these patients was only available to 3% (4/117) respondents. Renal function estimate used for anticoagulant dosing was mainly Cockcroft-Gault for pharmacists and haematology but lab-based estimates were used by nephrology doctors. Therapeutic dose of Low Molecular Weight Heparin was mostly likely to be reduced by one-third when used for VTE treatment, with the majority of units undertaking anti-Xa monitoring in CKD stage 5 and dialysis. Direct-acting Oral Anticoagulants are being used in patients with nephrotic syndrome, those with CKD stage 5 and on dialysis for VTE and AF in the absence of license in these indications. This survey highlighted the significant differences between anticoagulant prescribing in CKD between two professional specialties and marked variation between centres in anticoagulant management strategies employed for these patients. With gaps still existing in the evidence base and answers to these not expected within the next few years, development of a best-practice guideline would be warranted to support clinicians in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What would it mean to put environmental sustainability at the heart of education? This article describes a process of inclusive, participatory manifesto‐making to identify young people's (aged 16–18 years) and teachers' priorities for education for environmental sustainability across the UK. Drawing on analysis of qualitative data from over 200 teachers and young people who participated in futures and visualisation workshops, we identify key educational priorities at the levels of classroom, school, community and policy, based on consensus between teacher and youth perspectives. Whilst consensus‐seeking comes with a risk of favouring 'soft' actions which reinforce unsustainable practices and systems, the process of identifying more desirable futures and immediate barriers that must be negotiated to reach them has the potential to create spaces for more critical pedagogies and practices. There is a need for policy makers and school leaders to recognise the interests of teachers and young people to enable greater participation in decision making at different scales, and to ensure that those with the greatest capacity bear their burden of responsibility for education for environmental sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prospective cohort studies are challenging to deliver, with one of the main difficulties lying in retention of participants. The need to socially distance during the COVID-19 pandemic has added to this challenge. The pre-COVID-19 adaptation of the European Quality (EQUAL) study in the UK to a remote form of follow-up for efficiency provides lessons for those who are considering changing their study design.Methods: The EQUAL study is an international prospective cohort study of patients ≥65 years of age with advanced chronic kidney disease. Initially, patients were invited to complete a questionnaire (SF-36, Dialysis Symptom Index and Renal Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at research clinics every 3-6 months, known as "traditional follow-up" (TFU). In 2018, all living patients were invited to switch to "efficient follow-up" (EFU), which used an abbreviated questionnaire consisting of SF-12 and Dialysis Symptom Index. These were administered centrally by post. Response rates were calculated using returned questionnaires as a proportion of surviving invitees, and error rates presented as the average percentage of unanswered questions or unclear answers, of total questions in returned questionnaires. Response and error rates were calculated 6-monthly in TFU to allow comparisons with EFU.Results: Of the 504 patients initially recruited, 236 were still alive at the time of conversion to EFU; 111 of these (47%) consented to the change in follow-up. In those who consented, median TFU was 34 months, ranging from 0 to 42 months. Their response rates fell steadily from 88% (98/111) at month 0 of TFU, to 20% (3/15) at month 42. The response rate for the first EFU questionnaire was 60% (59/99) of those alive from TFU. With this improvement in response rates, the first EFU also lowered errors to baseline levels seen in early follow-up, after having almost trebled throughout traditional follow-up.Conclusions: Overall, this study demonstrates that administration of shorter follow-up questionnaires by post rather than in person does not negatively impact patient response or error rates. These results may be reassuring for researchers who are trying to limit face-to-face contact with patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies. Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study ('IMAGINE') of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study ('Tayside') in major abdominal surgery (2011–2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI. Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655–0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323–0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881–0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899). Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity. Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical models for clinical risk prediction are often derived using data from primary care databases; however, they are frequently used outside of clinical settings. The use of prediction models in epidemiological studies without external validation may lead to inaccurate results. We use the example of applying the QRISK3 model to data from the United Kingdom (UK) Biobank study to illustrate the challenges and provide suggestions for future authors. The QRISK3 model is recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) as a tool to aid cardiovascular risk prediction in English and Welsh primary care patients aged between 40 and 74. QRISK3 has not been externally validated for use in studies where data is collected for more general scientific purposes, including the UK Biobank study. This lack of external validation is important as the QRISK3 scores of participants in UK Biobank have been used and reported in several publications. This paper outlines: (i) how various publications have used QRISK3 on UK Biobank data and (ii) the ways that the lack of external validation may affect the conclusions from these publications. We then propose potential solutions for addressing these challenges; for example, model recalibration and considering alternative models, for the application of traditional statistical models such as QRISK3, in cohorts without external validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Use and dosing of guideline‐directed medical therapy (GDMT) in patients with heart failure (HF) have been shown to be suboptimal. Among new users of GDMT in HF, we followed the real‐life patterns of dose titration and discontinuation of angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), beta‐blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) and angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI). Methods and results: New users were identified in health care databases in Sweden, UK and US between 2016–2019. Inclusion criterion was a recent HF hospitalization (HHF) triggering the initiation of GDMT. Patients were grouped by GDMT, i.e. ACEi, ARB, beta‐blocker, MRA and ARNI, and stratified by initial dose. Follow‐up was 12 months, until death or study end. Outcomes were dose titration within each drug class, discontinuation and first HHF or death. Dose/discontinuation follow‐up was assessed daily based on the coverage length of a filled prescription and reported on day 365. New users of ACEi (n = 8426), ARB (n = 2303), beta‐blockers (n = 10 476), MRA (n = 17 421), and ARNI (n = 29 546) were identified. Over 12 months, target dose achievement was 15%, 10%, 12%, 30%, and discontinuation was 55%, 33%, 24% and 27% for ACEi, ARB, beta‐blockers and ARNI, respectively. MRA was rarely titrated and discontinuation rates were high (40%). Event rates for HHF or death ranged from 40.0–86.9 per 100 patient‐years across the treatment groups. Conclusion: Despite high risk of clinical events following HHF, new initiation of GDMT was followed by consistent patterns of low up‐titration and early GDMT discontinuation in three countries with different health care and economies. Our data highlight the urgent need for moving away from long sequential approach when initiating HF treatment and for improving just‐in‐time decision support for patients and health care providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lithium is the most effective treatment in bipolar disorder. Its use is limited by concerns about risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to develop a model to predict risk of CKD following lithium treatment initiation, by identifying individuals with a high-risk trajectory of kidney function.Methods: We used United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) electronic health records (EHRs) from 2000 to 2018. CPRD Aurum for prediction model development and CPRD Gold for external validation. We used elastic net regularised regression to generate a prediction model from potential features. We performed discrimination and calibration assessments in an external validation data set. We included all patients aged ≥ 16 with bipolar disorder prescribed lithium. To be included patients had to have ≥ 1 year of follow-up before lithium initiation, ≥ 3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures after lithium initiation (to be able to determine a trajectory) and a normal (≥ 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) eGFR at lithium initiation (baseline). In the Aurum development cohort, 1609 fulfilled these criteria. The Gold external validation cohort included 934 patients. We included 44 potential baseline features in the prediction model, including sociodemographic, mental and physical health and drug treatment characteristics. We compared a full model with the 3-variable 5-year kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) and a 3-variable elastic net model. We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify latent trajectory groups for eGFR. We were interested in the group with deteriorating kidney function (the high-risk group).Results: The high risk of deteriorating eGFR group included 191 (11.87%) of the Aurum cohort and 137 (14.67%) of the Gold cohort. Of these, 168 (87.96%) and 117 (85.40%) respectively developed CKD 3a or more severe during follow-up. The model, developed in Aurum, had a ROC area of 0.879 (95%CI 0.853-0.904) in the Gold external validation data set. At the empirical optimal cut-point defined in the development dataset, the model had a sensitivity of 0.91 (95%CI 0.84-0.97) and a specificity of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.82). However, a 3-variable elastic net model (including only age, sex and baseline eGFR) performed similarly well (ROC area 0.888; 95%CI 0.864-0.912), as did the KFRE (ROC area 0.870; 95%CI 0.841-0.898).Conclusions: Individuals at high risk of a poor eGFR trajectory can be identified before initiation of lithium treatment by a simple equation including age, sex and baseline eGFR. Risk was increased in individuals who were younger at commencement of lithium, female and had a lower baseline eGFR. We did not identify strong predicters of eGFR decline specific to lithium-treated patients. Notably, lithium duration and toxicity were not associated with high-risk trajectory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background and Aims: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study., Approach and Results: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m 2 . A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years' follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI)., Conclusions: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome., (© 2021 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)