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Objective This study aimed to examine the presence of distinct trajectories of adherence to home-based exercise recommendations among people with low back pain (LBP). This study also aimed to identify differences in baseline characteristics among groups. Methods This study was a secondary analysis of a prospective, multicenter cluster randomized controlled trial investigating the cost-effectiveness of a stratified blended physical therapist intervention compared to usual care physical therapy in patients with LBP. The intervention group received usual care with integrated support via a smartphone app. A total of 208 patients were recruited from 58 primary care physical therapist practices. Baseline data included patient characteristics, physical functioning, pain intensity, physical activity, fear avoidance, pain catastrophizing, self-efficacy, self-management ability, and health-related quality of life. The Exercise Adherence Scale (score range = 0–100) was used to measure adherence during each treatment session. Latent class growth analysis was used to estimate trajectories of adherence. Results Adherence data were available from 173 out of 208 patients (83%). Data were collected during an average of 5.1 (standard deviation [SD] = 2.5) treatment sessions, with total treatment duration of 51 (SD = 41.7) days. Three trajectory classes were identified: "declining adherence" (12%), "stable adherence" (45%), and "increasing adherence" (43%). No differences in baseline characteristic were found between groups. Conclusion Three adherence trajectories to exercise recommendations were identified in patients with LBP. However, baseline characteristics cannot identify a patient's trajectory group. Impact Despite the presence of distinct trajectories of adherence in patients with LBP, physical therapists should not attempt to place a patient in a trajectory group at the start of treatment. Instead, adherence should be closely monitored as treatment progresses and supported when required as part of an ongoing process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can existing post-treatment prognostic models for predicting neck pain recovery (primarily in terms of disability and secondarily in terms of pain intensity and perceived improvement) be externally validated and updated at the end of the treatment period and at 6 and 12 weeks of follow-up in a new Dutch cohort of people with neck pain treated with guideline-based usual care physiotherapy? External validation and model updating in a new prospective cohort of three previously developed prognostic models. People with (sub)acute neck pain and registered for primary care physiotherapy treatment. Recovery of disability, pain intensity, and perceived recovery at 6 and 12 weeks and at the end of the treatment period. Discriminative performance (c-statistic) of the disability model at 6 weeks was 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.77) and reasonably well calibrated after intercept recalibration. The disability model at 12 weeks and at the end of the treatment period showed discriminative c-statistic performance values of 0.69 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.73) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72), respectively, and was well calibrated. Pain models and perceived recovery models did not reach acceptable performance. Cervical mobility added value to the disability models and pain catastrophising to the disability and pain models at 6 weeks. Broad external validation of the disability model was successful in people with (sub)acute neck pain and clinicians may use this model in clinical practice with reasonable accuracy. Further research is required to assess the disability model's clinical impact and generalisability, and to identify additional valuable model predictors. https://osf.io/a6r3k/ [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intrinsic capacity (IC) defined by the WHO refers to the composite of five domains of capacities. So far, developing and validating a standardized overall score of the concept have been challenging partly because its conceptual framework has been unclear. We consider that a person's IC is determined by its domain-specific indicators suggesting a formative measurement model. Aims: To develop an IC score applying a formative approach and assess its validity. Methods: The study sample (n = 1908) consisted of 57–88-year-old participants from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA). We used logistic regression models to select the indicators to the IC score with 6-year functional decline as an outcome. An IC score (range 0–100) was constructed for each participant. We examined the known-groups' validity of the IC score by comparing groups based on age and number of chronic diseases. The criterion validity of the IC score was assessed with 6-year functional decline and 10-year mortality as outcomes. Results: The constructed IC score included seven indicators covering all five domains of the construct. The mean IC score was 66.7 (SD 10.3). The scores were higher among younger participants and those who had lower number of chronic diseases. After adjustment for sociodemographic indicators, chronic diseases, and BMI, a one-point higher IC score was associated with a 7% decreased risk for 6-year functional decline and a 2% decreased risk for 10-year mortality. Conclusions: The developed IC score demonstrated discriminative ability according to age and health status and is associated with subsequent functional decline and mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of computer-tailored nutrition education with objective outcome measures. Design: A 3-group randomized, controlled trial with posttests at 1 and 6 months post-intervention. Setting: Worksites and 2 neighborhoods in the urban area of Rotterdam. Participants: A convenience sample of healthy Dutch adults (n = 442). Interventions: A computer-tailored intervention delivered on CD-ROM; a computer-tailored intervention delivered in print; and a generic information condition. Main Outcome Measures: Blood lipids (total, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triacylglycerol) were measured by analyzing venous blood samples. Analysis: Linear mixed model procedure. Results: There were no significant differences among the 3 intervention groups in total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triacylglycerol. Conclusions and Implications: Contrary to results based on self-report data, no effects of the computer-tailored interventions were found based on objective outcomes. This contradiction calls for a critical reflection on the use of computer-tailored nutrition education interventions and the need to improve those interventions. Furthermore, this study indicates that feasible methods are needed to objectively assess the impact of computer-tailored nutrition education interventions in free-living subjects. (Contains 2 tables and 1 figure.)

Neck pain is one of the leading causes of disability in most countries and it is likely to increase further. Numerous prognostic models for people with neck pain have been developed, few have been validated. In a recent systematic review, external validation of three promising models was advised before they can be used in clinical practice. The purpose of this study was to externally validate three promising models that predict neck pain recovery in primary care. This validation cohort consisted of 1311 patients with neck pain of any duration who were prospectively recruited and treated by 345 manual therapists in the Netherlands. Outcome measures were disability (Neck Disability Index) and recovery (Global Perceived Effect Scale) post-treatment and at 1-year follow-up. The assessed models were an Australian Whiplash-Associated Disorders (WAD) model (Amodel), a multicenter WAD model (Mmodel), and a Dutch non-specific neck pain model (Dmodel). Models' discrimination and calibration were evaluated. The Dmodel and Amodel discriminative performance (AUC < 0.70) and calibration measures (slope largely different from 1) were poor. The Mmodel could not be evaluated since several variables nor their proxies were available. External validation of promising prognostic models for neck pain recovery was not successful and their clinical use cannot be recommended. We advise clinicians to underpin their current clinical reasoning process with evidence-based individual prognostic factors for recovery. Further research on finding new prognostic factors and developing and validating models with up-to-date methodology is needed for recovery in patients with neck pain in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In The Netherlands, low back pain patients can consult physicians specialized in musculoskeletal (MSK) medicine. Previous studies have reported on the characteristics of patients consulting MSK physicians, and the treatment options used. There are no studies yet reporting on the course of Low Back Pain (LBP) after treatment by musculoskeletal (MSK) physicians in The Netherlands. Methods: In an observational cohort study MSK physicians recorded data about all low back pain patients presenting for a first consultation. At baseline they recorded age, gender, type and duration of the main complaint, and concomitant complaints. At the end of treatment they recorded the type of treatment and the number of treatment sessions. Patients were recruited to answer questionnaires at baseline, and at 6-weekly intervals during a follow-up period of six months. Patient questionnaires included information about previous medical consumption, together with PROMs measuring the level of pain and functional status. Latent Class Growth Analysis (LCGA) was used to classify patients into different groups according to their pain trajectories. Baseline variables were evaluated as predictors of a favourable trajectory using logistic regression analyses, and treatment variables were evaluated as possible confounders. Results: A total of 1377 patients were recruited, of whom 1117 patients (81%) answered at least one follow-up measurement. LCGA identified three groups of patients with distinct pain trajectories. A first group (N = 226) with high pain levels showed no improvement, a second group (N = 578) with high pain levels showed strong improvement, and a third group (N = 313) with mild pain levels showed moderate improvement. The two groups of patients presenting with high baseline pain scores were compared, and a multivariable model was constructed with possible predictors of a favourable course. Male gender, previous specialist visit, previous pain clinic visit, having work, a shorter duration of the current episode, and a longer time since the complaints first started were predictors of a favourable course. The multivariable model showed a moderate area under the curve (0.68) and a low explained variance (0.09). Conclusions: In low back pain patients treated by musculoskeletal physicians in The Netherlands three different pain trajectories were identified. Baseline variables were of limited value in predicting a favourable course. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early identification of older cardiac patients at high risk of readmission or mortality facilitates targeted deployment of preventive interventions. In the Netherlands, the frailty tool of the Dutch Safety Management System (DSMS-tool) consists of (the risk of) delirium, falling, functional impairment, and malnutrition and is currently used in all older hospitalised patients. However, its predictive performance in older cardiac patients is unknown.Aim: To estimate the performance of the DSMS-tool alone and combined with other predictors in predicting hospital readmission or mortality within 6 months in acutely hospitalised older cardiac patients.Methods: An individual patient data meta-analysis was performed on 529 acutely hospitalised cardiac patients ≥70 years from four prospective cohorts. Missing values for predictor and outcome variables were multiply imputed. We explored discrimination and calibration of: (1) the DSMS-tool alone; (2) the four components of the DSMS-tool and adding easily obtainable clinical predictors; (3) the four components of the DSMS-tool and more difficult to obtain predictors. Predictors in model 2 and 3 were selected using backward selection using a threshold of p = 0.157. We used shrunk c-statistics, calibration plots, regression slopes and Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values (PHL) to describe predictive performance in terms of discrimination and calibration.Results: The population mean age was 82 years, 52% were males and 51% were admitted for heart failure. DSMS-tool was positive in 45% for delirium, 41% for falling, 37% for functional impairments and 29% for malnutrition. The incidence of hospital readmission or mortality gradually increased from 37 to 60% with increasing DSMS scores. Overall, the DSMS-tool discriminated limited (c-statistic 0.61, 95% 0.56-0.66). The final model included the DSMS-tool, diagnosis at admission and Charlson Comorbidity Index and had a c-statistic of 0.69 (95% 0.63-0.73; PHL was 0.658).Discussion: The DSMS-tool alone has limited capacity to accurately estimate the risk of readmission or mortality in hospitalised older cardiac patients. Adding disease-specific risk factor information to the DSMS-tool resulted in a moderately performing model. To optimise the early identification of older hospitalised cardiac patients at high risk, the combination of geriatric and disease-specific predictors should be further explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Psychosocial work characteristics are associated with all-cause long-term sickness absence (LTSA). Aims: This study investigated whether psychosocial work characteristics such as higher workload, faster pace of work, less variety in work, lack of performance feedback, and lack of supervisor support are prospectively associated with higher LTSA due to mental disorders. Methods: Cohort study including 4877 workers employed in the distribution and transport sector in The Netherlands. Psychosocial work characteristics were included in a logistic regression model estimating the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of mental LTSA during 2-year follow-up. The ability of the regression model to discriminate between workers with and without mental LTSA was investigated with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Tow thousand seven hundred and eighty-two (57%) workers were included in the analysis; 73 (3%) had mental LTSA. Feedback about one's performance (OR = 0.82; 95% CI 0.70–0.96) was associated with mental LTSA. A prediction model including psychosocial work characteristics poorly discriminated (AUC = 0.65; 95% CI 0.56–0.74) between workers with and without mental LTSA. Conclusions: Feedback about one's performance is associated with lower rates of mental LTSA, but it is not useful to measure psychosocial work characteristics to identify workers at risk of mental LTSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lower protein intake in older adults is associated with loss of muscle mass and strength. The present study aimed to provide a pooled estimate of the overall prevalence of protein intake below recommended (according to different cut‐off values) among community‐dwelling older adults, both within the general older population and within specific subgroups. Methods: As part of the PRevention Of Malnutrition In Senior Subjects in the EU (PROMISS) project, a meta‐analysis was performed using data from four cohorts (from the Netherlands, UK, Canada, and USA) and four national surveys [from the Netherlands, Finland (two), and Italy]. Within those studies, data on protein and energy intake of community‐dwelling men and women aged ≥55 years were obtained by either a food frequency questionnaire, 24 h recalls administered on 2 or 3 days, or food diaries administered on 3 days. Protein intake below recommended was based on the recommended dietary allowance of 0.8 g/kg body weight (BW)/d, by using adjusted BW (aBW) instead of actual BW. Cut‐off values of 1.0 and 1.2 were applied in additional analyses. Prevalences were also examined for subgroups according to sex, age, body mass index (BMI), education level, appetite, living status, and recent weight loss. Results: The study sample comprised 8107 older persons. Mean ± standard deviation protein intake ranged from 64.3 ± 22.3 (UK) to 80.6 ± 23.7 g/d [the Netherlands (cohort)] or from 0.94 ± 0.38 (USA) to 1.17z ± 0.30 g/kg aBW/d (Italy) when related to BW. The overall pooled prevalence of protein intake below recommended was 21.5% (95% confidence interval: 14.0–30.1), 46.7% (38.3–55.3), and 70.8% (65.1–76.3) using the 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 cut‐off value, respectively. A higher prevalence was observed among women, individuals with higher BMI, and individuals with poor appetite. The prevalence differed only marginally by age, education level, living status, and recent weight loss. Conclusions: In community‐dwelling older adults, the prevalence of protein intake below the current recommendation of 0.8 g/kg aBW/d is substantial (14–30%) and increases to 65–76% according to a cut‐off value of 1.2 g/kg aBW/d. To what extent the protein intakes are below the requirements of these older people warrants further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Background: Primary prevention of overweight is to be preferred above secondary prevention, which has shown moderate effectiveness. Objective: To develop and internally validate a dynamic prediction model to identify young children in the general population, applicable at every age between birth and age 6, at high risk of future overweight (age 8). Methods: Data were used from the Prevention and Incidence of Asthma and Mite Allergy birth cohort, born in 1996 to 1997, in the Netherlands. Participants for whom data on the outcome overweight at age 8 and at least three body mass index SD scores (BMI SDS) at the age of ≥3 months and ≤6 years were available, were included (N = 2265). The outcome of the prediction model is overweight (yes/no) at age 8 (range 7.4‐10.5 years), defined according to the sex‐ and age‐specific BMI cut‐offs of the International Obesity Task Force. Results: After backward selection in a Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, the prediction model included the baseline predictors maternal BMI, paternal BMI, paternal education, birthweight, sex, ethnicity and indoor smoke exposure; and the longitudinal predictors BMI SDS, and the linear and quadratic terms of the growth curve describing a child's BMI SDS development over time, as well as the longitudinal predictors' interactions with age. The area under the curve of the model after internal validation was 0.845 and Nagelkerke R2 was 0.351. Conclusions: A dynamic prediction model for overweight was developed with a good predictive ability using easily obtainable predictor information. External validation is needed to confirm that the model has potential for use in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective This study determined if partial sick leave was associated with a shorter duration of sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) based on routinely collected health data in Dutch sick-listed employees. Furthermore, the effect of timing of partial sick leave on sick leave duration was determined. Methods This cohort study consisted of 771 employees with partial sick leave and 198 employees with full-time sick leave who participated in an occupational health check, and had sick leave due to MSD for minimally 4 weeks and were diagnosed by an occupational physician. Multivariable linear regression models were performed to determine the effects of partial sick leave (unadjusted and adjusted for confounders and MSD diagnosis) and Kaplan–Meier curves were presented for visualization of return to work for different timings of starting partial sick leave. Furthermore, linear regression analysis were done in subsets of employees with different minimal durations of sick leave to estimate the effects of timing of partial sick leave. Results Initial results suggest that partial sick leave was associated with longer sick leave duration, also when adjusted for confounders and sick leave diagnosis. Secondary results which accounted for the timing of partial sick leave suggest that partial sick leave had no effect on the duration of sick leave. Conclusion Partial sick leave does not influence MSD sick leave duration in this study when accounting for the timing of partial sick leave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The aim of this study was to develop prediction models to determine the risk of sick leave due to musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) in non-sick listed employees and to compare models for short-term (i.e., 3 months) and long-term (i.e., 12 months) predictions. Methods Cohort study including 49,158 Dutch employees who participated in occupational health checks between 2009 and 2015 and sick leave data recorded during 12 months follow-up. Prediction models for MSD sick leave within 3 and 12 months after the health check were developed with logistic regression analysis using routinely assessed health check variables. The performance of the prediction models was evaluated with explained variance (Nagelkerke's R-square), calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC) measures. Results A total of 376 (0.8%) and 1193 (2.4%) employees had MSD sick leave within 3 and 12 months after the health check. The prediction models included similar predictor variables (educational level, musculoskeletal complaints, distress, supervisor social support, work-home interference, intrinsic motivation, development opportunities, and work pace). The explained variances were 7.6% and 8.8% for the model with 3 and 12 months follow-up, respectively. Both prediction models showed adequate calibration and discriminated between employees with and without MSD sick leave 3 months (AUC = 0.761; Interquartile range [IQR] 0.759–0.763) and 12 months (AUC = 0.740; IQR 0.738–0.741) after the health check. Conclusion The prediction models could be used to determine the risk of MSD sick leave in non-sick listed employees and invite them to preventive consultations with occupational health providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of an innovative strategy to improve implementation of evidence-based guidelines on the management of hypertension in pregnancy compared to a common strategy of professional audit and feedback.Design: Cluster randomized controlled trial (c-RCT).Setting: Sixteen Dutch hospitals.Population: All patients with a hypertensive disorder during pregnancy who were admitted to one of the participating hospitals between April 1st 2010 and May 1st 2011, were suitable for inclusion; the only exclusion criterion was the presence of lethal fetal abnormalities.Methods: Hospitals were randomly assigned to either an innovative implementation strategy including a computerized decision support system (DSS) and professional audit and feedback or a minimal implementation strategy of audit and feedback only.Main Outcome Measures: Primary outcome measure was a combined rate of major maternal complications. Secondary outcome measures included process-related measures on guideline adherence, and patient-related outcomes. A process evaluation was performed alongside.Results: No statistically significant difference was found in both the occurrence of major complications and most secondary outcome measures between the two groups. Process evaluation showed limited use of the computerized DSS, with a large variation between hospitals (0-49,5% of the eligible patients), but positive experiences of actual users.Conclusion: Using a computerized DSS for implementation of the clinical guidelines for the management of hypertension in pregnancy did not result in fewer major maternal and fetal complications. Limited use of the DSS in the innovative strategy group could be an explanation for the lack of effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mental disorders are increasing and account for one-third of all disability benefits in OECD countries. This study investigated the work status after mental sickness absence (SA). Methods: Five-year longitudinal cohort study of 6678 male production workers. Work status, work schedule and work hours/week were retrieved from employer records in five years following RTW from mental SA. Longitudinal analysis was done with linear and logistic generalized estimating equations estimating relative risks (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs), respectively, controlled for age, marital status and occupational grade. Results: In total, 4613 (69%) workers had complete data and were included in the analyses; 552 of them had experienced mental SA. In the years following mental SA, 102 (18%) workers left employment compared to 384 (9%) workers without mental SA. In the first year after mental SA, workers left employment at their own request and in later years they were dismissed because of poor work functioning. After mental SA, workers more often (RR = 2.93; 95% CI 1.83-4.03) reduced their work hours/ week than those without mental SA, whereas the odds of changing work schedule did not differ between them (OR = 1.02; 95% CI 0.84-1.24). Conclusions: After mental SA, workers left employment or reduced work hours/ week more often than those without mental SA. The results suggest that changes in employment status are more common after SA caused by mental disorders as compared with somatic disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Child maltreatment is a great public health concern that has long-term mental and physical health consequences and can result in death. We studied the effect of a nurse home visiting program on child maltreatment among young disadvantaged families in the Netherlands. This study is the first to investigate the effects of this program outside of the United States. Methods: We conducted a single blind, parallel-group, randomized controlled trial that compared usual care with the nurse home visitation program, which began during pregnancy and continued until the children’s second birthdays, in 460 disadvantaged women who were pregnant for the first time and <26 years of age. The primary outcome was the existence of a report about the child from a child protecting services agency (CPS reports). Secondary outcome measures included home environment and child behavior. Results: Two hundred twenty-three participants were assigned to the control group, and 237 were assigned to the intervention group. Three years after birth, 19% of the children in the control group had a CPS report. The 11 percent of children in the intervention group with CPS files was significantly lower (relative risk 0.91, p-value 0.04). At 24 months, the intervention group scored significantly better on the IT-HOME. At 24 months after birth, the children in the intervention group exhibited a significant improvement in internalizing behavior (relative risk 0.56, p-value 0.04) but no evidence of a difference from the control group in externalizing behavior (relative risk 0.71, p-value 0.12). Conclusion: The number of CPS reports for the intervention group was significantly lower than that of the control group. Additionally, the long-term home environments were improved and internalizing behaviors of the children were lower in the intervention group. Trial Registration: Dutch Trial Register [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This is the first prediction model for development of a niche, including important surgical factors, in a population with a first elective or emergency CS. • More attention should be paid to surgical factors (double-layer closure, less surgical experience, other suture material than Vicryl) given their effect on niche development. • Different factors contribute to development of a niche compared to development of a large niche. • This prediction model is, unfortunately, not usable in clinical practice due to lack of discriminative ability and accuracy. • Proper suturing and correct approximation rather than single- versus double-layer uterine closure could play an important role and needs attention during training of residents. • Clinicians should be aware that suture material influences niche development. To develop and internally validate a prognostic prediction model for development of a niche in the uterine scar after a first caesarean section (CS). Secondary analyses on data of a randomized controlled trial, performed in 32 hospitals in the Netherlands among women undergoing a first caesarean section. We used multivariable backward logistic regression. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. Model performance was assessed by calibration and discrimination. Internal validation using bootstrapping techniques took place. The outcome was 'development of a niche in the uterus', defined as an indentation of ≥ 2 mm in the myometrium. We developed two models to predict niche development: in the total population and after elective CS. Patient related risk factors were: gestational age, twin pregnancy and smoking, and surgery related risk factors were double-layer closure and less surgical experience. Multiparity and Vicryl suture material were protective factors. The prediction model in women undergoing elective CS revealed similar results. After internal validation, Nagelkerke R2 ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 and was considered low; median area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 0.56 to 0.62, indicating failed to poor discriminative ability. The model cannot be used to accurately predict the development of a niche after a first CS. However, several factors seem to influence scar healing which indicates possibilities for future prevention such as surgical experience and suture material. The search for additional risk factors that play a role in development of a niche should be continued to improve the discriminative ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin D Status is currently diagnosed by measuring serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]. Objective: This study aimed to develop a risk profile that can be used to easily identify older individuals at high risk of vitamin D deficiency. Design: This study was performed within the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, an ongoing cohort study in a representative sample of the Dutch older population (n = 1509 for the development sample and n = 1100 for the Validation sample). Prediction models for serum 25(OH)D concentrations <50 and <30 nmol/L were developed by using backward logistic regression. Risk scores were calculated by dividing the individual regression coefficients by the regression coefficient with the lowest β to create simple scores. Results: Serum 25(OH)D concentrations <50 and <30 nmol/L were present in 46.2% and 17.5% of participants, respectively. The model for the prediction of concentrations <50 nmol/L consisted of 13 easily assessable predictors, whereas the model for concentrations <30 nmol/L contained 10 predictors. The resulting areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.78 and 0.80, respectively. The AUC in the ex-ternal Validation data set was 0.71 for the <50-nmol/L model. At a cutoff of 58 in total risk score (range: 8-97), the model predicted concentrations <50 nmol/L with a sensitivity of 61% and a specificity of 82%, whereas these values were 61% and 84%, respectively, at a cutoff of 110 in the total risk score (range: 6-204) in the model for concentrations <30 nmol/L. Conclusions: Two total risk scores, including 13 or 10 predictors that can easily be assessed, were developed and are able to predict serum 25(OH)D concentrations <50 and <30 nmol/L accurately. These risk scores may be useful in clinical practice to identify persons at risk of vitamin D deficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

STUDY DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal study. OBJECTIVE: To explore the working mechanism of manual therapy, we investigated whether 3 cervical spine variables were mediators of the effect of manual therapy on headache frequency. BACKGROUND: Manual therapy has been shown to reduce headache frequency in participants with chronic tension-type headache (CTTH). To what extent specific elements of treatment contribute to the effectiveness of manual therapy in CTTH is unknown. METHODS: One hundred eighty-two participants with CTTH participated in a prospective longitudinal study: 142 underwent manual therapy and 40 participants received usual care by their general practitioner. Regression analysis was performed according to the steps described by Baron and Kenny, and the proportion of mediated effect was estimated for 3 potential mediators: (1) cervical range of motion, (2) neck flexor endurance, and (3) forward head posture. Outcome was defined as a 50% or greater reduction in headache days. RESULTS: Neck flexor endurance mediated 24.5% of the effect of manual therapy. Cervical range of motion and forward head posture showed no mediated effect. CONCLUSION: Increased neck flexor endurance appears to be a working mechanism of manual therapy. This finding supports isometric training of neck flexors in participants with CTTH. Trial registered with Netherlands Trial Register (TR 1074). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Sickness absence (SA) is a public health risk marker for morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate prediction models to identify employees at risk of high SA. Methods: Two prediction models were developed using self-rated health (SRH) and prior SA as predictors. SRH was measured by the categories excellent, good, fair and poor in a convenience sample of 535 hospital employees. Prior SA was retrieved from the employer's register. The predictive performance of the models was assessed by logistic regression analysis with high (&geq;90th percentile) vs. non-high (<90th percentile) SA days and SA episodes as outcome variables and by using bootstrapping techniques to validate the models. Results: The overall performance as reflected in the Nagelkerke's pseudo R2 was 11.7% for the model identifying employees with high SA days and 31.8% for the model identifying employees with high SA episodes. The discriminative ability, represented by the area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), was 0.729 (95% CI 0.667–0.809) for the model identifying employees with high SA days and 0.831 (95% CI 0.784–0.877) for the model identifying employees with high SA episodes. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed acceptable calibration for both models. Conclusions: The prediction models identified employees at risk of high SA, but need further external validation in other settings and working populations before applying them in public and occupational health research and care. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Aims Crypts can be found with cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) mutation carriers without hypertrophy (carriers) using a modified two-chamber view through the inferoseptum, but also in other patients and healthy individuals with standard long-axis views. Since it is currently unknown if carriers display a specific crypt morphology, we compared crypts in carriers with other cardiac pathologies (controls). Besides, we aimed to determine the optimal imaging plane for the detection of crypts by comparing modified two-chamber views with standard long-axis views. Finally, we evaluated the accuracy of crypts to identify carriers in HCM family screening. Methods and results Standard CMR long-axis views with additional modified two-chamber views were prospectively performed in carriers (n= 43), consecutive CMR control patients (n= 252), and mutation-negative family members (n= 15). Crypts were found in 70% (30/43) of carriers and in 12% (31/252) of controls (P< 0.001). Crypts in carriers showed deeper penetrance into the myocardium compared with controls (74 ± 21% vs. 59 ± 22%, P< 0.01). Detection of two or more crypts had a sensitivity of 51% and specificity of 94% for carriership. Modified two-chamber views doubled the sensitivity to detect crypts compared with standard long-axis views. In family screening, ≥2 crypts had a 100% positive predictive value to identify carriers. Conclusions Multiple crypts in the absence of left ventricular hypertrophy are highly specific for HCM mutation carriership and warrant clinical follow-up. A modified two-chamber view has a superior sensitivity compared with standard long-axis views for crypt detection. CMR may be of additional value to identify carriers in family screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims There is growing evidence that coronary artery disease (CAD) affects not only the conduit epicardial coronary arteries, but also the microvascular coronary bed. Moreover, coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMVD) often precedes the stage of clinically overt epicardial CAD. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) measured with computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound, respectively, are among the available techniques to non-invasively assess atherosclerotic burden. An increased CAC score and C-IMT have also been associated with CMVD. It is therefore of interest to explore and compare the potential of CAC against C-IMT to predict minimal coronary vascular resistance (CVR). Methods and results We evaluated 120 patients (mean age 56 ± 9 years, 58 men) without a documented history of CAD in whom obstructive CAD was excluded. All patients underwent C-IMT measurements, CAC scoring, and vasodilator stress 15O-water positron emission tomography (PET)/CT, during which the coronary flow reserve (CFR) and minimal CVR were analysed. Minimal CVR increased significantly with increasing tertiles of C-IMT (22 ± 6, 27 ± 11, and 28 ± 9 mmHg mL−1min−1 g−1, P < 0.01), whereas the CFR was comparable across all C-IMT groups (P = 0.50). Minimal CVR increased significantly with an increase in CAC score (23 ± 9, 27 ± 8, 32 ± 10, and 32 ± 7 mmHg mL−1 min−1 g−1, P < 0.01), whereas the CFR did not show a significant decrease with higher CAC scores (P = 0.18). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that C-IMT (P = 0.03), but not CAC, was independently associated with minimal CVR. Conclusion C-IMT, but not CAC score, independently predicts minimal CVR in patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors and suspected of CAD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Distance lifestyle counseling for weight control is a promising public health intervention in the work setting. Information about the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking, but necessary to make informed implementation decisions. The purpose of this study was to perform an economic evaluation of a six-month program with lifestyle counseling aimed at weight reduction in an overweight working population with a two-year time horizon from a societal perspective. Methods: A randomized controlled trial comparing a program with two modes of intervention delivery against self-help. 1386 Employees from seven companies participated (67% male, mean age 43 (SD 8.6) years, mean BMI 29.6 (SD 3.5) kg/m2). All groups received self-directed lifestyle brochures. The two intervention groups additionally received a workbook-based program with phone counseling (phone; n=462) or a web-based program with e-mail counseling (internet; n=464). Body weight was measured at baseline and 24 months after baseline. Quality of life (EuroQol-5D) was assessed at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after baseline. Resource use was measured with six-monthly diaries and valued with Dutch standard costs. Missing data were multiply imputed. Uncertainty around differences in costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was estimated by applying non-parametric bootstrapping techniques and graphically plotting the results in cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results: At two years the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €1009/kg weight loss in the phone group and €16/kg weight loss in the internet group. The cost-utility analysis resulted in €245,243/quality adjusted life year (QALY) and €1337/QALY, respectively. The results from a complete-case analysis were slightly more favorable. However, there was considerable uncertainty around all outcomes. Conclusions: Neither intervention mode was proven to be cost-effective compared to self-help. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Background Recent evidence indicates that a lower plasma level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25 OHD) is associated with a higher risk of the metabolic syndrome. It has not been studied in older people with a high prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency. Objective This study investigates the association between vitamin D status and the metabolic syndrome in community-dwelling older persons in the Netherlands. Design and patients The study is part of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, an ongoing cohort study in a representative sample of Dutch older persons. A total of 1286 subjects (629 men and 657 women) between the ages of 65 and 88 years participated in the study. Measurements Metabolic syndrome (U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program definition) and its individual components were assessed as well as serum 25 OHD levels. Results Among the participants, the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 37·0%. The mean 25 OHD level was 53·3 n m; 47·8% had 25 OHD levels below 50 n m. There was a significantly increased risk of the metabolic syndrome in the subjects with serum 25 OHD levels below 50 n m, compared with that of subjects with levels over 50 n m [odds ratio (OR) = 1·54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·23-1·94]. After adjustment for confounders, age, sex, season, years of education, alcohol use, total activity, smoking and PTH, the OR was 1·29 (95% CI 1·00-1·68). The association between vitamin D deficiency and the metabolic syndrome was mainly determined by the components low HDL and (high) waist circumference. Conclusions Vitamin D deficiency is common in the older population in the Netherlands, and subjects with serum 25 OHD below 50 n m have a higher risk of the metabolic syndrome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors aimed to explore optimal cutoffs for high-risk waist circumference (WC) in older adults to assess the health risks of obesity. Prospective data from 4,996 measurements in 2,232 participants aged ≥70 years were collected during 5 triennial measurement cycles (1992/1993–2005/2006) of a population-based cohort study, the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (Amsterdam, the Netherlands). Cross-sectional associations of WC with pain, mobility limitations, incontinence, knee osteoarthritis, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes were studied. Generalized estimating equations models were fitted with restricted cubic spline functions in order to carefully study the shapes of the associations. Model fits for applying different cutoffs to categorize WC in the association with all outcomes were tested using the quasi-likelihood under the Independence Criterion (QIC). On the basis of the spline regression curves, potential WC cutoffs of approximately 109 cm in men and 98 cm in women were proposed. Based on the model fit, cutoffs between 100 cm and 106 cm were equally applicable in men but should not be higher. In women, the QIC confirmed an optimal cutoff of 99 cm. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Long-term trials are needed to capture information regarding the persistence of efficacy and loss to follow-up of both mandibular advancement device (MAD) therapy and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Objectives: The aim of the study was to compare these treatment aspects between MAD and nasal CPAP (nCPAP) in a 1-year follow-up. Methods:Forty-three mild/moderate obstructive sleep apnea patients (52.2 ± 9.6 years) with a mean apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) of 20.8 ± 9.9 events/h were randomly assigned to two parallel groups: MAD (n = 21) and nCPAP (n = 22). Four polysomnographic recordings were obtained: one before treatment, one for the short-term evaluation, and two recordings 6 and 12 months after the short-term evaluation. Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) was also evaluated at the polysomnographic recordings. Results: The initially achieved improvements in the AHI remained stable over time within both groups (p = 0.650). In the nCPAP group, the AHI improved 4.1 events/h more than in the MAD group (p = 0.000). The EDS values showed a gradual improvement over time (p = 0.000), and these improvements were similar for both groups (p = 0.367). In the nCPAP group, more patients withdrew from treatment due to side effects than in the MAD group. Conclusions: The absence of significant long-term differences in EDS improvements between the MAD and the nCPAP groups with mild/moderate obstructive sleep apnea may indicate that the larger improvements in AHI values in the nCPAP group are not clinically relevant. Moreover, nCPAP patients may show more problems in accepting their treatment modality than MAD patients. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Working women of childbearing age are a vital part of the population. Following childbirth, this group of women can experience a myriad of physical and mental health problems that can interfere with their ability to work. Currently, there is little known about cost-effective post-partum interventions to prevent work disability. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether supervisor telephone contact (STC) during maternity leave is cost-effective from a societal perspective in reducing sick leave and improving quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to common practice (CP). Methods: We conducted an economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial. QALYs were measured by the EuroQol 5-D, and sick leave and presenteeism by the Health and work Performance Questionnaire. Resource use was collected by questionnaires. Data were analysed according to intention-to-treat. Missing data were imputed via multiple imputation. Uncertainty was estimated by 95% confidence intervals, cost-utility planes and curves, and sensitivity analyses. Results: 541 working women from 15 companies participated. Response rates were above 85% at each measurement moment. At the end of the follow-up, no statistically significant between-group differences in QALYs, mean hours of sick leave or presenteeism or costs were observed. STC was found to be less effective and more costly. For willingness-to-pay levels from ϵ0 through ϵ50,000, the probability that STC was cost-effective compared to CP was 0.2. Overall resource use was low. Mean total costs were ϵ3678 (95% CI: 3386; 3951). Productivity loss costs represented 37% of the total costs and of these costs, 48% was attributable to sick leave and 52% to work presenteeism. The cost analysis from a company's perspective indicated that there was a net cost associated with the STC intervention. Conclusions: STC was not cost-effective compared to common practice for a healthy population of working mothers; therefore, implementation is not indicated. The cost-utility of STC for working mothers with more severe post-partum health problems, however, needs to be investigated. Work presenteeism accounted for half of the total productivity loss and warrants attention in future studies. Trial registration number: ISRCTN: ISRCTN73119486 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The most common ankle injury is the lateral ankle sprain. Dutch annual sports-related ankle sprain costs can roughly be estimated at 187,200,000. Research has shown that proprioceptive training accounts for an approximated overall 50% reduction in ankle sprain recurrence rate.Hypothesis: An unsupervised proprioceptive training program to reduce the recurrence of lateral ankle sprains will reduce overall health care costs.Design: Cohort study (economic analysis); Level of evidence, 2.Methods: The study included 522 male and female athletes: 256 athletes (120 female and 136 male) in the intervention group, and 266 athletes (128 female and 138 male) in the control group. Both groups received treatment according to usual care. Athletes allocated to the intervention group received an 8-week proprioceptive training program in addition to usual care. Costs per athlete and costs per injured athlete were calculated. Costs related to ankle sprain recurrences were measured from a societal perspective using cost diaries. Bootstrapping was used to analyze the cost-effectiveness data. Follow-up was 1 year.Results: Mean total costs in the intervention group were 81 (standard deviation, 134) per athlete and 114 (325) per injured athlete. Mean overall costs in the control group were 149 (836) per athlete and 447 (1403) per injured athlete. Statistically significant differences in total costs were found per athlete (mean difference, —69; 95% confidence interval, -200 to -2) and per injured athlete (-332; -741 to -62) in favor of the intervention group. A cost-effectiveness plane showed the effect of the intervention was larger and the costs were lower in the intervention group than the control group.Conclusion: The use of a proprioceptive training program after usual care of an ankle sprain is cost-effective for the prevention of ankle sprain recurrences in comparison with usual care alone. In the Netherlands, an estimated annual 35.9 million in medical and lost productivity costs can be saved solely by advocating a proprioceptive training program as in the present study. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: In prognostic studies model instability and missing data can be troubling factors. Proposed methods for handling these situations are bootstrapping (B) and Multiple imputation (MI). The authors examined the influence of these methods on model composition. Methods: Models were constructed using a cohort of 587 patients consulting between January 2001 and January 2003 with a shoulder problem in general practice in the Netherlands (the Dutch Shoulder Study). Outcome measures were persistent shoulder disability and persistent shoulder pain. Potential predictors included sociodemographic variables, characteristics of the pain problem, physical activity and psychosocial factors. Model composition and performance (calibration and discrimination) were assessed for models using a complete case analysis, MI, bootstrapping or both MI and bootstrapping. Results: Results showed that model composition varied between models as a result of how missing data was handled and that bootstrapping provided additional information on the stability of the selected prognostic model. Conclusion: In prognostic modeling missing data needs to be handled by MI and bootstrap model selection is advised in order to provide information on model stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recently, a three-item screener, derived from the 16-item distress scale of the Four-Dimensional Symptom Checklist (4DSQ), was used to measure psychological distress in sicklisted employees. The aim of the present study was to investigate the ability of the 16-item distress scale and three-item distress screener to identify non-sicklisted employees at risk of sickness absence (SA) due to mental disorders. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4877 employees working in distribution and transport. The 4DSQ distress scale was distributed at baseline in November 2010. SA diagnosed within the International Classification of Diseases -10 chapter F was defined as mental SA and retrieved from an occupational health register during 2-year follow-up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to discriminate between workers with ('cases') and without ('non-cases') mental SA during follow-up. Results: A total of 2782 employees (57%) were included in complete cases analysis; 73 employees had mental SA during 2-year follow-up. Discrimination between cases and non-cases was similar for the 16-item distress scale (AUC =0.721; 95% CI, 0.622-0.823) and the three-item screener (AUC = 0.715; 95% CI, 0.615-0.815). Conclusion: Healthcare providers could use the three-item distress screener to identify non-sicklisted employees at risk of future mental SA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper describes five recent Dutch studies of the effectiveness of physical activity interventions carried out in diverse settings: general practice (GP), aged care facilities, and workplaces. The stage-based physical activity counselling carried out in the GP setting demonstrated a beneficial effect on the determinants of physical activity, but did not show any additional effect on physical activity behaviour, compared with standard physical activity advice. In contrast, the stage-based intervention through the workplace was effective in increasing physical activity, due mostly to an increase in vigorous-intensity activities. In the aged care setting, functional-skills training alone or in combination with resistance training showed functional improvement only in participants with high participation rates. Functional-skills training appeared to be more feasible than resistance training in this population of frail elderly. The two studies which aimed to promote earlier return-to-work among workers with sick leave due to non-specific low back pain also showed promising results. As a result, it was recommended that occupational physicians (OP) should refer workers with low back pain in the subacute phase of their sick leave to a low intensity intervention consisting of short meetings and exercises aimed at changing behaviour, and that the OPs contact other health care providers (GPs and physiotherapists) about the treatment strategy. Together, the results of these five Dutch studies suggest that it is feasible to successfully promote physical activity to groups of people in diverse places, with benefits in terms of both prevention and management of chronic disease and injury. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Back pain is a leading cause of disability worldwide and is common in older adults. No clinical prediction models for poor long-term outcomes have been developed in older patients with back pain. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 3 clinical prediction models for nonrecovery in this population. A prospective cohort study in general practice was conducted (Back Complaints in the Elders, Netherlands), including 675 patients >55 years with a new episode of care for back pain. Three definitions of nonrecovery were used combining 6-month and 12-month follow-up data: (1) persistent back pain, (2) persistent disability, and (3) perceived nonrecovery. Sample size calculation resulted in a maximum of 14 candidate predictors that were selected from back pain prognostic literature and clinical experience. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the models (backward selection procedure). Models' performance was evaluated with explained variance (Nagelkerke's R2), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) measures. The models were internally validated in 250 bootstrapped samples to correct for overoptimism. All 3 models displayed good overall performance during development and internal validation (ie, R2 > 30%; AUC > 0.77). The model predicting persistent disability performed best, showing good calibration, discrimination (AUC 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.83-0.89; optimism-adjusted AUC 0.85), and explained variance (R2 49%, optimism-adjusted R2 46%). Common predictors in all models were: age, chronic duration, disability, a recent back pain episode, and patients' recovery expectations. Spinal morning stiffness and pain during spinal rotation were included in 2 of 3 models. These models should be externally validated before being used in a clinical primary care setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: The incidence of maxillofacial fractures varies widely between different countries. The large variability in reported incidence and aetiology is due to a variety of contributing factors, including environmental, cultural and socioeconomic factors. This retrospective report presents a study investigating the aetiology and incidence of patients with maxillofacial fractures in Amsterdam over a period of 10 years. Results: The study population consisted of 408 males and 171 females with a mean age of 35.9 (SD: ±16.3) years. The age group 20–29 years accounted for the largest subgroup in both sexes. The most common cause of the fractures was traffic related, followed by violence. There were mainly mandibular and zygomatic bone fractures in both males and females, accounting for approximately 80% of all fractures. The main fracture site of the mandible was the combination of mandibular body with mandibular condyle (66 patients; 26.8%), followed by the combination of bilateral condylar fracture and fracture of the symphysis (43 patients; 17.5%). In fractures of the upper 2/3 of the face, zygomatic bone fractures were most common. In patients with alcohol consumption the injury was mostly the result of violence. In conclusion, this report provides important data for the design of plans for injury prevention, as compared with previous studies. Violence related injuries are increasing whereas fractures caused by traffic accidents are decreasing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of computer-tailored nutrition education with objective outcome measures. Design: A 3-group randomized, controlled trial with posttests at 1 and 6 months post-intervention. Setting: Worksites and 2 neighborhoods in the urban area of Rotterdam. Participants: A convenience sample of healthy Dutch adults (n = 442). Interventions: A computer-tailored intervention delivered on CD-ROM; a computer-tailored intervention delivered in print; and a generic information condition. Main Outcome Measures: Blood lipids (total, high-density lipoprotein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triacylglycerol) were measured by analyzing venous blood samples. Analysis: Linear mixed model procedure. Results: There were no significant differences among the 3 intervention groups in total cholesterol, high- density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triacylglycerol. Conclusions and Implications: Contrary to results based on self-report data, no effects of the computer-tailored interventions were found based on objective outcomes. This contradiction calls for a critical reflection on the use of computer-tailored nutrition education interventions and the need to improve those interventions. Furthermore, this study indicates that feasible methods are needed to objectively assess the impact of computer-tailored nutrition education interventions in free-living subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study investigated the effectiveness of labeling foods with the Choices nutrition logo on influencing cafeteria menu selection and the behavioral determinants of menu choices in work site cafeterias in the Netherlands. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted. Intervention cafeterias (n=13), where the Choices logo was used to promote healthier eating for a 3-week period, were compared with control cafeterias (n=12), which offered the same menu without the logo. Sales data were collected daily for 9 weeks, from March to May 2009. In addition, employees from one intervention and one control company completed an online questionnaire at baseline and after the intervention (n=368) in which the behavioral determinants of food choice (ie, attitude, self-efficacy, and intention) and logo use were measured. Generalized estimating equation analyses, χ2 tests, t tests and linear regression analyses were performed. No nutritionally meaningful intervention effects were found in the sales of sandwiches, soups, snacks, fruit, and salads. Also, no significant differences in behavioral determinants were found. “Intention to eat healthier” and “paying attention to product information” were positively associated with self-reported consumption of foods with the Choices logo at lunch. The intervention did not have a significant effect on employees'' lunchtime food choices. Labeling healthy choices might be useful for health-conscious employees in the volitional phase of behavior change. Further research should focus on the possible health benefits of menu reformulation in the catering sector. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Purpose: The aim of this study was to examine the longitudinal association between educational level and frailty prevalence in older adults and to investigate the role of material, biomedical, behavioral, social, and mental factors in explaining this association. Methods: Data over a period of 13 years were used from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam. The study sample consisted of older adults aged 65 years and above at baseline (n = 1205). Frailty was assessed using Fried's frailty criteria. A relative index of inequality was calculated for the level of education. Longitudinal logistic regression analyses based on multilevel modeling were performed. Results: Older adults with a low educational level had higher odds of being frail compared with those with a high educational level (relative index of inequality odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.84–4.71). These differences persisted during 13 years of follow-up. Adjustment for all explanatory factors reduced the effect of educational level on frailty by 76%. Income, self-efficacy, cognitive impairment, obesity, and number of chronic diseases had the largest individual contribution in reducing the effect. Social factors had no substantial contribution. Conclusions: Our findings highlight the need for a multidimensional approach in developing interventions aimed at reducing frailty, especially in lower educated groups. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article presents a study which determines the efficacy of weight-management program with personal counseling by a web site with an e-mail or a workbook with phone among overweight employees. The study used randomized controlled trial, body weight measurements, and postal questionnaire. Results show that weight loss in the Internet group was 1.2 kilograms (kg), while 0.8 kg in the phone group. It adds that Internet intervention confirmed modest long-term weight loss.

Objectives: To develop and internally validate prediction models to assess treatment success of both stand-alone and blended online vestibular rehabilitation (VR) in patients with chronic vestibular syndrome., Design: Secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial., Setting: 59 general practices in The Netherlands., Participants: 202 adults, aged 50 years and older with a chronic vestibular syndrome who received either stand-alone VR (98) or blended VR (104). Stand-alone VR consisted of a 6-week, internet-based intervention with weekly online sessions and daily exercises. In blended VR, the same intervention was supplemented with physiotherapy support., Main Outcome Measures: Successful treatment was defined as: clinically relevant improvement of (1) vestibular symptoms (≥3 points improvement Vertigo Symptom Scale-Short Form); (2) vestibular-related disability (>11 points improvement Dizziness Handicap Inventory); and (3) both vestibular symptoms and vestibular-related disability. We assessed performance of the predictive models by applying calibration plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and applied internal validation., Results: Improvement of vestibular symptoms, vestibular-related disability or both was seen in 121, 81 and 64 participants, respectively. We generated predictive models for each outcome, resulting in different predictors in the final models. Calibration for all models was adequate with non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, but the discriminative ability of the final predictive models was poor (AUC 0.54 to 0.61). None of the identified models are therefore suitable for use in daily general practice to predict treatment success of online VR., Conclusion: It is difficult to predict treatment success of internet-based VR and it remains unclear who should be treated with stand-alone VR or blended VR. Because we were unable to develop a useful prediction model, the decision to offer stand-alone or blended VR should for now be based on availability, cost effectiveness and patient preference., Trial Registration Number: The Netherlands Trial Register NTR5712., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the Unified Competing Interest form (available on request from the corresponding author)., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Societal expenditures on work-disability benefits is high in most Western countries. As a precursor of long-term work restrictions, long-term sickness absence (LTSA) is under continuous attention of policy makers. Different healthcare professionals can play a role in identification of persons at risk of LTSA but are not well trained. A risk prediction model can support risk stratification to initiate preventative interventions. Unfortunately, current models lack generalizability or do not include a comprehensive set of potential predictors for LTSA. This study is set out to develop and validate a multivariable risk prediction model for LTSA in the coming year in a working population aged 45-64 years., Methods: Data from 11,221 working persons included in the prospective Study on Transitions in Employment, Ability and Motivation (STREAM) conducted in the Netherlands were used to develop a multivariable risk prediction model for LTSA lasting ≥28 accumulated working days in the coming year. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. A full statistical model including 27 pre-selected predictors was reduced to a practical model using backward stepwise elimination in a logistic regression analysis across all imputed datasets. Predictive performance of the final model was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC), calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test. External validation was performed in a second cohort of 5604 newly recruited working persons., Results: Eleven variables in the final model predicted LTSA: older age, female gender, lower level of education, poor self-rated physical health, low weekly physical activity, high self-rated physical job load, knowledge and skills not matching the job, high number of major life events in the previous year, poor self-rated work ability, high number of sickness absence days in the previous year and being self-employed. The model showed good discrimination (AUC 0.76 (interquartile range 0.75-0.76)) and good calibration in the external validation cohort (H&L test: p = 0.41)., Conclusions: This multivariable risk prediction model distinguishes well between older workers with high- and low-risk for LTSA in the coming year. Being easy to administer, it can support healthcare professionals in determining which persons should be targeted for tailored preventative interventions.

Background: Hip fractures in the elderly are associated with advanced comorbidities and high mortality rates. Mortality prediction models can support clinicians in tailoring treatment for medical decision making in frail elderly patients. The aim of this study was to develop and internally validate the Brabant Hip Fracture Score, for 30-day (BHFS-30) and 1-year mortality (BHFS-365) after hip fracture., Material and Methods: A cohort study was conducted in 2 hospitals on operatively treated patients of 65 years and older with a hip fracture. Manual backward multivariable logistic regression was used to select independent predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping techniques. Model performance was assessed with: (1) discrimination via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC); (2) explained variance via Nagelkerke's R 2 ; (3) calibration via Hosmer-Lemeshow (H&L) test and calibration plots., Results: Independent predictors of 30-day mortality were: age, gender, living in an institution, Hb, respiratory disease, diabetes and malignancy. In addition, cognitive frailty and renal insufficiency, were selected in the BHFS-365. Both models showed acceptable discrimination after internal validation (AUC = 0.71 and 0.75). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit ( p > 0.05)., Discussion: We demonstrated that the internally validated and easy to use BHFS in surgically treated elderly patients after a hip fracture showed acceptable discrimination and adequate calibration. In clinical practice a cutoff of BHFS-30 ⩾ 24 could identify frail elderly patients at high risk for early mortality and could support clinicians, patients and families in tailoring treatment for medical decision making.

Purpose The current study aimed to identify factors that distinguish between older (50+ years) hearing aid (HA) candidates who do and do not purchase HAs after having gone through an HA evaluation period (HAEP). Method Secondary data analysis of the SUpport PRogram trial was performed ( n = 267 older, 1st-time HA candidates). All SUpport PRogram participants started an HAEP shortly after study enrollment. Decision to purchase an HA by the end of the HAEP was the outcome of interest of the current study. Participants' baseline covariates (22 in total) were included as candidate predictors. Multivariable logistic regression modeling (backward selection and reclassification tables) was used. Results Of all candidate predictors, only pure-tone average (average of 1, 2, and 4 kHz) hearing loss emerged as a significant predictor (odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval [1.03, 1.17]). Model performance was weak (Nagelkerke R 2 = .04, area under the curve = 0.61). Conclusions These data suggest that, once HA candidates have decided to enter an HAEP, factors measured early in the help-seeking journey do not predict well who will and will not purchase an HA. Instead, factors that act during the HAEP may hold this predictive value. This should be examined.

Background: Identifying those people at increased risk of early functional decline in activities of daily living (ADL) is essential for initiating preventive interventions. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for onset of functional decline in ADL in three years of follow-up in older people of 65-75 years old., Methods: Four population-based cohort studies were pooled for the analysis: ActiFE-ULM (Germany), ELSA (United Kingdom), InCHIANTI (Italy), LASA (Netherlands). Included participants were 65-75 years old at baseline and reported no limitations in functional ability in ADL at baseline. Functional decline was assessed with two items on basic ADL and three items on instrumental ADL. Participants who reported at least some limitations at three-year follow-up on any of the five items were classified as experiencing functional decline. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model, with subsequent bootstrapping for optimism-correction. We applied internal-external cross-validation by alternating the data from the four cohort studies to assess the discrimination and calibration across the cohorts., Results: Two thousand five hundred sixty community-dwelling people were included in the analyses (mean age 69.7 ± 3.0 years old, 47.4% female) of whom 572 (22.3%) reported functional decline at three-year follow-up. The final prediction model included 10 out of 22 predictors: age, handgrip strength, gait speed, five-repeated chair stands time (non-linear association), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis, and depressive symptoms. The optimism-corrected model showed good discrimination with a C statistic of 0.72. The calibration intercept was 0.06 and the calibration slope was 1.05. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent performance of the model across the four cohorts., Conclusions: Based on pooled cohort data analyses we were able to show that the onset of functional decline in ADL in three years in older people aged 65-75 years can be predicted by specific physical performance measures, age, body mass index, presence of depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, which remained stable across the four cohorts, supporting external validity of our findings.

Objectives: To develop a dynamic prediction model for high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years that could be applied at any age between birth and the age of 6 years in community-based child healthcare., Design, Setting and Participants: Data were used from 5359 children in a population-based prospective cohort study in Rotterdam, the Netherlands., Outcome Measure: High blood pressure was defined as systolic and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95th percentile for gender, age and height. Using multivariable pooled logistic regression, the predictive value of characteristics at birth, and of longitudinal information on the body mass index (BMI) of the child until the age of 6 years, was assessed. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping., Results: 227 children (4.2%) had high blood pressure at the age of 9-10 years. Final predictors were maternal hypertensive disease during pregnancy, maternal educational level, maternal prepregnancy BMI, child ethnicity, birth weight SD score (SDS) and the most recent BMI SDS. After internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.65 (prediction at age 3 years) to 0.73 (prediction at age 5-6 years)., Conclusions: This prediction model may help to monitor the risk of developing high blood pressure in childhood which may allow for early targeted primordial prevention of cardiovascular disease., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Introduction: Major depressive disorders (MDD), diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are leading contributors to the global burden of disease and often co-occur., Objectives: To evaluate the 2-year effectiveness of a stepped-care intervention to prevent MDD compared with usual care and to develop a prediction model for incident depression in patients with DM2 and/or CHD with subthreshold depression., Methods: Data of 236 Dutch primary care patients with DM2/CHD with subthreshold depression (Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) score ≥6, no current MDD according to the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria)) who participated in the Step-Dep trial were used. A PHQ-9 score of ≥10 at minimally one measurement during follow-up (at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months) was used to determine the cumulative incidence of MDD. Potential demographic and psychological predictors were measured at baseline via web-based self-reported questionnaires and evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model. Model performance was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Nagelkerke's R 2 explained variance and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Bootstrapping techniques were used to internally validate our model., Results: 192 patients (81%) were available at 2-year follow-up. The cumulative incidence of MDD was 97/192 (51%). There was no statistically significant overall treatment effect over 24 months of the intervention (OR 1.37; 95% CI 0.52 to 3.55). Baseline levels of anxiety, depression, the presence of >3 chronic diseases and stressful life events predicted the incidence of MDD (AUC 0.80, IQR 0.79-0.80; Nagelkerke's R 2 0.34, IQR 0.33-0.36)., Conclusion: A model with 4 factors predicted depression incidence during 2-year follow-up in patients with DM2/CHD accurately, based on the AUC. The Step-Dep intervention did not influence the incidence of MDD. Future depression prevention programmes should target patients with these 4 predictors present, and aim to reduce both anxiety and depressive symptoms., Trial Registration Number: NTR3715., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To develop and internally validate a prediction model for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation., Design: A cross-sectional retrospective study., Setting: A questionnaire concerning tinnitus was sent to patients with bilateral severe to profound hearing loss, who underwent unilateral cochlear implantation at the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2015., Participants: Of 137 included patients, 87 patients experienced tinnitus preoperatively. Data of these 87 patients were used to develop the prediction model., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: The outcome of the prediction model was tinnitus recovery. Investigated predictors were: age, gender, duration of deafness, preoperative hearing performance, tinnitus duration, severity and localisation, follow-up duration, localisation of cochlear implant (CI) compared with tinnitus side, surgical approach, insertion depth of the electrode, CI brand and difference in hearing threshold following cochlear implantation. Multivariable backward logistic regression was performed. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. The performance of the model was assessed by the calibrative and discriminative ability of the model. The prediction model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques., Results: The tinnitus recovery rate was 40%. A lower preoperative Consonant-Vowel-Consonant (CVC) score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250 Hz revealed to be relevant predictors for tinnitus recovery. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of the initial model was 0.722 (IQR: 0.703-0.729). After internal validation of this prediction model, the AUC decreased to 0.696 (IQR: 0.667-0.700)., Conclusion and Relevance: Lower preoperative CVC score, unilateral localisation of tinnitus and larger deterioration of residual hearing at 250 Hz were significant predictors for tinnitus recovery following unilateral cochlear implantation. The performance of the model developed in this retrospective study is promising. However, before clinical use of the model, the conduction of a larger prospective study is recommended., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Potential predictors of poor outcome will be measured at baseline: (1) preoperatively to develop a clinical prediction model to predict which patients are likely to have favourable outcome following lumbar spinal fusion surgery (LSFS) and (2) postoperatively to predict which patients are likely to have favourable long-term outcomes (to inform rehabilitation)., Methods and Analysis: Prospective observational study with a defined episode inception of the point of surgery. Electronic data will be collected through the British Spine Registry and will include patient-reported outcome measures (eg, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire) and data items (eg, smoking status). Consecutive patients (≥18 years) undergoing LSFS for back and/or leg pain of degenerative cause will be recruited., Exclusion Criteria: LSFS for spinal fracture, inflammatory disease, malignancy, infection, deformity and revision surgery. 1000 participants will be recruited (n=600 prediction model development, n=400 internal validation derived model; planning 10 events per candidate prognostic factor). The outcome being predicted is an individual's absolute risk of poor outcome (disability and pain) at 6 weeks (objective 1) and 12 months postsurgery (objective 2). Disability and pain will be measured using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and severity of pain in the previous week with a Numerical Rating Scale (NRS 0-10), respectively. Good outcome is defined as a change of 1.7 on the NRS for pain, and a change of 14.3 on the ODI. Both linear and logistic (to dichotomise outcome into low and high risk) multivariable regression models will be fitted and mean differences or ORs for each candidate predictive factor reported. Internal validation of the derived model will use a further set of British Spine Registry data. External validation will be geographical using two spinal registries in The Netherlands and Switzerland., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval (University of Birmingham ERN&#95;17-0446A). Dissemination through peer-reviewed journals and conferences., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

This study aimed to determine the predictors of entering a hearing aid evaluation period (HAEP) using a prospective design drawing on the health belief model and the transtheoretical model. In total, 377 older persons who presented with hearing problems to an Ear, Nose, and Throat specialist ( n = 110) or a hearing aid dispenser ( n = 267) filled in a baseline questionnaire. After 4 months, it was determined via a telephone interview whether or not participants had decided to enter a HAEP. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to determine which baseline variables predicted HAEP status. A priori, candidate predictors were divided into 'likely' and 'novel' predictors based on the literature. The following variables turned out to be significant predictors: more expected hearing aid benefits, greater social pressure, and greater self-reported hearing disability. In addition, greater hearing loss severity and stigma were predictors in women but not in men. Of note, the predictive effect of self-reported hearing disability was modified by readiness such that with higher readiness, the positive predictive effect became stronger. None of the 'novel' predictors added significant predictive value. The results support the notion that predictors of hearing aid uptake are also predictive of entering a HAEP. This study shows that some of these predictors appear to be gender specific or are dependent on a person's readiness for change. After assuring the external validity of the predictors, an important next step would be to develop prediction rules for use in clinical practice, so that older persons' hearing help-seeking journey can be facilitated.

Objective: To evaluate whether a model that was previously developed to predict 14-day mortality for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory tract infection who received antibiotics could be applied to residents who were not treated with antibiotics. Specifically, in this same data set, to update the model using recalibration methods; and subsequently examine the historical, geographical, methodological and spectrum transportability through external validation of the updated model., Design: 1 cohort study was used to develop the prediction model, and 4 cohort studies from 2 countries were used for the external validation of the model., Setting: Nursing homes in the Netherlands and the USA., Participants: 157 untreated residents were included in the development of the model; 239 untreated residents were included in the external validation cohorts., Outcome: Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination: area under the receiver operating characteristic curves; and calibration: Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics and calibration graphs. Further, reclassification tables allowed for a comparison of patient classifications between models., Results: The original prediction model applied to the untreated residents, who were sicker, showed excellent discrimination but poor calibration, underestimating mortality. Adjusting the intercept improved calibration. Recalibrating the slope did not substantially improve the performance of the model. Applying the updated model to the other 4 data sets resulted in acceptable discrimination. Calibration was inadequate only in one data set that differed substantially from the other data sets in case-mix. Adjusting the intercept for this population again improved calibration., Conclusions: The discriminative performance of the model seems robust for differences between settings. To improve calibration, we recommend adjusting the intercept when applying the model in settings where different mortality rates are expected. An impact study may evaluate the usefulness of the two prediction models for treated and untreated residents and whether it supports decision-making in clinical practice., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Exclusion of pulmonary hypertension secondary to left-sided heart disease (left heart failure (LHF)) is pivotal in the diagnosis of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). In case of doubt, invasive measurements are recommended. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether it is possible to diagnose LHF using noninvasive parameters in a population suspected of PAH.300 PAH and 80 LHF patients attended our pulmonary hypertension clinic before August 2010, and were used to build the predictive model. 79 PAH and 55 LHF patients attended our clinic from August 2010, and were used for prospective validation.A medical history of left heart disease, S deflection in V1 plus R deflection in V6 in millimetres on ECG, and left atrial dilation or left valvular heart disease that is worse than mild on echocardiography were independent predictors of LHF. The derived risk score system showed good predictive characteristics: R(2)=0.66 and area under the curve 0.93. In patients with a risk score ≥72, there is 100% certainty that the cause of pulmonary hypertension is LHF. Using this risk score system, the number of right heart catheterisations in LHF may be reduced by 20%.In a population referred under suspicion of PAH, a predictive model incorporating medical history, ECG and echocardiography data can diagnose LHF noninvasively in a substantial percentage of cases., (Copyright ©ERS 2015.)

Purpose: The Ottawa ankle rules (OAR) brought about a reduction of radiographs on the Emergency Department (ED). However, still 50% of patients with ankle injuries undergo unnecessary radiography. Compared to the OAR, the Bernese ankle rule (BAR) has an acclaimed 84% reduction in radiography without loss of sensitivity. The primary aim of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of both rules. Furthermore, the ability of triage nurses to accurately interpret the BAR was assessed., Methods: Participants were assessed by both the ED resident and the triage nurse, applying the OAR and the BAR. After standardised data collection, ankle and foot radiographs were performed in all patients. Sensitivity and specificity of both tests applied by both observers were obtained and compared by McNemar's test. Reproducibility was calculated with Cohen's kappa., Results: A total of 203 patients with ankle trauma were included. For the OAR obtained by the ED residents, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.97 and 0.29, respectively. For the BAR, the sensitivity and specificity of the ED residents were 0.69 and 0.45, respectively. For the triage nurses, the OAR sensitivity and specificity were 0.86 and 0.25, respectively. The BAR sensitivity and specificity for the nurses were 0.86 and 0.40, respectively. The reproducibility of the OAR was 0.45, and for the BAR, it was 0.48., Conclusion: Both rules showed comparable reproducibility. Although the BAR showed a superior specificity compared to the OAR, its sensitivity was too low to promote clinical use. The triage nurses demonstrated too low sensitivity on both rules to allow safe application. Therefore, the OAR remain the decision rules of choice for ankle injuries despite its modest 'ruling out' capacity., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)