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During the last two decades, some international treaties have played a decisive role in facilitating scientific collaboration between member countries. For this reason, this study aims to predict the effect of Iran’s membership in these treaties on three things: first, the amount of scientific collaboration between Iran and the members of each treaty; second, the total amount of Iran’s international scientific collaboration; third, the extent of Iran’s dependence on scientific collaboration with the USA as the most key actor in the international scientific collaboration network. According to the background, the treaties that have a significant impact on international scientific collaboration are G7, G20, EU, OECD, OPEC, APEC, and BRICS. This study is based on the simulation method (with an agent-based modeling approach). This method was used to simulate the network of scientific collaboration between independent countries with more than one million people in the period of 2023-2042. The secondary data required for the simulation were collected from the Web of Science database and the United Nations database. Hypotheses related to possible scenarios were tested based on difference-in-difference statistical model. All calculations, including network simulation and hypothesis testing, were performed in the R software environment. The findings showed that Iran’s joining G20, OECD, and APEC will significantly increase Iran’s scientific collaboration with the members of each treaty. However, Iran’s membership in the BRICS will not have a significant effect on its collaboration with the BRICS members. Also, Iran’s joining each of these four treaties will significantly increase the total amount of Iran’s international scientific collaboration. However, the increase in the G20 scenario is higher, and in the BRICS scenario is lower than other treaties. At the same time, Iran’s membership in G20 and BRICS will lead to a significant increase in Iran’s dependence on collaboration with the USA. In return, Iran’s membership in OECD and APEC will play a significant role in reducing Iran’s dependence on collaboration with the USA. Another advantage of Iran’s membership in the OECD is strengthening its collaboration with two of the key players in Europe (France and Italy). One of the side benefits of Iran’s joining APEC is the significant increase in its collaboration with the key player in East Asia (China). The results indicated that Iran’s joining OECD and APEC will help to increase Iran’s visibility in the international scientific collaboration network and reduce Iran’s dependence on collaboration with the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the intricate relationship between farmers' water usage and its hydrological effects is crucial for developing adaptable water policies. However, conducting such an analysis proves challenging due to the lack of appropriate modeling tools that comprehensively integrate water policies, water utilization, and hydrological processes. To address this challenge, this study introduces an innovative socio-hydrological framework to investigate the interplay between farmer actions and water resources. This framework integrates an agent-based model, which is based on the Value-Belief-Norm (VBN) theory, linked with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT-MODFLOW) to capture farmer behaviors. The modeling framework is applied to the Mahabad River Basin to assess water use and hydrological impacts. To assess the framework's ability, Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency and the coefficient of determination (R2) are computed for simulating runoff, while Mean Absolute Residual Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are computed for simulating groundwater head. Results demonstrate the acceptable performance of the proposed model, with NS = 0.61, R2 = 0.69, MAE = 1.16, and RMSE = 1.92. Moreover, this study integrates climate change data from the 6th IPCC report to evaluate the model's responsiveness to altering climate conditions. Findings suggest that farmers facing economic challenges tend to opt for high-profit crops to ameliorate their financial situation. So, without policy changes, climate change will reduce crop yield, farmer income, and water storage. Furthermore, the study evaluates enhancing irrigation efficiency and groundwater extraction restrictions to mitigate climate change effects. Enhancing irrigation efficiency annually conserves 38.39 MCM, boosts crop yields by 6 %, elevates farmer incomes, and encourages a shift toward low-water-consuming crops, contributing to regional groundwater sustainability. Overall, the results of this study can enhance our comprehension of the impact of human activities on hydrological cycles, offering valuable insights for water managers. • The study integrates agent-based and hydrological models to explore how farmers' decisions impact water resources. • Climate change poses challenges for farmers, impacting agricultural productivity and water resources in Mahabad River Basin. • Water sustainability measures can improve crop yields, groundwater levels, and river discharge. • Diverse approach to managing water resources in Iran's agriculture, focusing on enhancing irrigation efficiency. • Reducing cultivated land and transitioning to less water-intensive crops crucial for sustainable water resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Using the ADOPT algorithm as a conflict resolution model for urban flood management. • Grouping agents as active and passive considering their investment on flood control. • Developing some quadratic functions for simulating active agents' utilities. • Using SWMM to simulate urban flood quantity and the average flood depth. • Using stakeholder analysis and ADOPT reduces the average flood depth by 58 %. The management of water resources in urban environments is challenging due to the existence of numerous stakeholders and the large number of affected people. In this paper, agents in an urban environment are categorized as active, passive, and monitoring agents, and a new mechanism is proposed to determine the flood control motivation functions (FCMFs) of active agents. An FCMF shows the motivation of an agent for investing and participating in a flood control activity. Also, for the first time, the effectiveness of a conflict resolution model based on asynchronous distributed constraint optimization (ADOPT) is evaluated for urban flood management. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, it is applied to the eastern drainage catchment of Tehran, the capital city of Iran. The FCMFs of active stakeholders are modeled using some mathematical functions. To determine the FCMFs of active agents, an economic optimum point is suggested. This point is determined based on the construction costs of flood control infrastructures and flood damage costs. The utility functions of passive agents are modeled using a regression analysis. Flood management scenarios include a combination of water transfer canals, pipes, and ponds with real-time operating methods. ADOPT is used for solving Distributed Constraint Optimization Problems (DCOPs). The goal in DCOPs is to assign values to these variables in an approach that maximizes a global objective function while satisfying the constraints of each agent. The results show that by using the ADOPT-based conflict resolution model, the average depth of flooding is reduced from 24 cm to about 10 cm, and this is associated with the satisfaction of more than 90 percent of stakeholders. A decline in Average Flood Depth (AFD) has been observed with increased usage of technological methods such as constructing ponds or transferring water outside the basin. However, stakeholder desirability is critical and both technical and stakeholder interests should be taken into account to ensure project viability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Deep climate uncertainties pose a challenge for long-term water resources planning. • Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is linked to socio-hydrological modeling (SWAT-ABM). • SWAT-ABM covers hydrological aspect and farmer agents' preferences and behaviors. • Robust adaptable plans are designed and evaluated under deep climate uncertainties. • Farmers' cooperative adaptation actions are the most robust adaptable plans. Deep climate uncertainties create challenges to long-term planning in the management of complicated water resources and agricultural systems. The use of an innovative decision-making approach under deep climate uncertainties is helpful to deal with these challenges in such systems. The research aims to develop an appropriate methodology for designing and evaluating robust adaptable plans in the agricultural sector in the face of deep climate uncertainties which covers hydrological aspects and stakeholders' preferences and behaviors. For this purpose, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach in conjunction with socio-hydrological modeling is utilized to design and evaluate comprehensive robust adaptable plans under future climate uncertainties in the Hablehroud River Basin, Iran. In this context, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is linked to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to account for the social behavior of various stakeholders as well as the impact of climate change on water resources and agricultural systems and their interactions. The results indicated that encouraging farmers to cooperate in changing cropping patterns and deficit irrigation should be proposed as a main plan in both short- and long-term planning. If the implementation issues are also considered, penalty-based adaptation actions (robustness range of 56–72 %) can be prioritized in the early years to gradually educate farmers about the benefits of cooperative behavior. Therefore, taking into account all issues: 1) sustainability of water resources, 2) agricultural income, 3) climate change impacts, and 4) implementation plans in the time period, it is suggested to impose a penalty on deficit irrigation (56–76 % of robustness) during the early time periods and then shift to changes in cropping patterns through training of farmers (76–82 %). Considering limits to allowable water withdrawal through penalties (56–72 %) can be implemented as another suggested alternative in the early time periods, but imposing penalties on deficit irrigation (62–68 %) should be implemented in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of decreasing industrial CO2 footprints has become evident, as also highlighted in COP26. As such, the transition to renewable energy in the industrial sector is essential to meet the targets. To this aim, establishing industrial community energy systems (InCES) where industries collectively invest in a shared energy system is an economically and environmentally attractive option. Yet, the emergence and continuity of such collective initiatives among industrial companies has neither received considerable attention in the scientific literature nor in practice. This research, as the first of its kind, aims to investigate institutional design options that allow for such collaboration to take place for the establishment and continuity of an InCES. Given the bottom-up and collaborative nature of such initiatives, we take an agent-based modeling and simulation approach, for the first time in this area, that incorporates the institutional and societal attributes that influence the formation and continuation of an InCES. We take data from an industrial cluster in Arak, one of the most prominent industrial cities in Iran. The results of this study confirm the economic feasibility of an InCES as compared to individual renewable energy investment in the cluster. The results also highlight the importance of flexible membership in increasing the number of investors (i.e., industrial companies) in such initiatives. Other important recommendations are: considering the installation of at least 15% extra capacity for the powerplant, restricting electricity consumption and enforcing on-time payment of monthly premium fees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to identify and assess the parameters affecting agent behaviors and to simulate their effects on groundwater resources under the existing water regulations and policies. For this purpose, agent-based models are exploited to simulate the different groups of agents including Regional Water Authority, Public Prosecutor's Office, and the stakeholders as well as their interactions. The systems dynamic model is employed to investigate the effects of changes in agent behaviors on groundwater resources. The Any Logic software package is also used as a powerful tool for simulating both models and identifying the relationships between human behavior and water resources. Two efficient and inefficient scenarios are defined for assessing the effects of such parameters as ‘meetings of regional water agencies held with other public organizations”. Results revealed that changes in the behavior and interactions of Regional Water Authority with other public organizations under the first (inefficient) scenario led to increased renewable storage by 11.6 MCM while elimination of this parameter in the second (efficient) scenario led to a decrease of 52.6 MCM in renewable storage. Results of both scenarios showed that proper interactions of the Regional Water Authority with other stakeholders led to the control of illegal water abstractions and the rise of water table in the aquifers from the scenario one 1777.4 m–1778.1 m under the second scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many researchers have attempted to prevent or mitigate damages, estimate vulnerabilities and control natural catastrophes, an important phase of disaster management that has received less attention is the challenge of managing people and resources directly after an incident. Because earthquakes can be one of the most disastrous events, especially in Iran, the purpose of this article is to develop an easy-to-use multi-agent simulation and modeling environment for the assessment of different disaster management scenarios as measured in terms of saving additional lives. The earthquake-induced damages to buildings, streets and citizens are the inputs to the proposed model. Five mobile agent types: citizen, paramedic, street-opener, police and robber; one stationary agent type: gas valve; and five inactive agent types: building, street, shelter, hospital and fire station form the context of the model. Disaster managers are provided with customizable settings for the number and attributes of the agents in the user interface and can assess various statistical and visual results to determine the optimal number and characteristics of the agents as well as evaluate the effectiveness of the location of shelters. To simulate the extent of a calamity, this model is tested on a small region in Tehran, Iran. The agents are created and input to the model automatically via vector GIS data layers and the entire model is vector-based. A comparison between the results of two different scenarios highlights that increasing the number of street-openers and paramedics would not create the desired improvement as long as these agents are focused on fire stations and hospitals. Additionally, the impact of street blockages is significant after an earthquake, and therefore, the potential capacity of the street-openers demonstrated in the simulations points to the necessity of retrofitting buildings and widening streets before an earthquake occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Urban land-use development is a problematic phenomenon in developing countries. Modeling this phenomenon is of considerable interest to urban planners and city managers. Several methods have been developed to simulate the dynamics of land-use changes. However, the complexity of urban growth is considered a factor that impedes the usefulness of such simulation methods. Among the available methods, those considered “agent-based models” have found popularity in simulating land-use development and urban sprawl modeling. These methods use a dynamic bottom-up approach with the actors in land-use development as their basic components. In this paper, a new agent-based model is introduced. This model is equipped with new methods for modeling the movements of agents and competition among agents. The model is used to simulate urban land-use development in the Qazvin province of Iran, which covers an area of 36×45km. The model is first calibrated with existing data and is then used to predict future land-use development. To test development policies, four scenarios are defined. The first scenario reflects the current pattern of development, which is evaluated using the calibrated model. The second and third scenarios examine different policies, including those that act as “incentive” strategies and those that are “punitive.” The fourth scenario focuses on changes to the demographic population of agents. The results reveal that the current trend in urban growth tends to be dispersed in the study area. However, different policies tend to produce different results: in areas in which an incentive policy is in place, 140 clusters of development were detected, while in areas in which a punitive policy is in place, 180 clusters were detected. The incentive strategy is concluded to be more successful than the punitive strategy in reducing the dispersion of development. Change in the population demography is observed to be more efficient in areas of development than in those of dispersion. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Landowners' satisfaction in this method was 35% more than the conventional method. • The land value in this method was 43% more balanced than the conventional method. • Distribution of 90% of the parcels according to the priorities of their owners. • Aggregation of 86% of the scattered parcels into the blocks using this method. • ABM provides more flexibility and leads to fairness in land redistribution. Improving the agrarian structure is an overall objective of land consolidation schemes. Unfavorably shaped parcels are optimally rearranged in the land reallocation process and redistributed to pre-determined blocks. In conventional reallocation, farmers' preferences are used to determine the prospective location of the new parcels. The most common conflict that can arise during this process is that demand may be high for some blocks. Resolving these disputes, which deal directly with landowners' rights, can affect the success or failure of land consolidation projects. In this study, a novel approach is presented for land reallocation using agent-based modeling. In this method, landowner agents compete to select blocks that have the most utility for the reallocation of their parcels. The utility of a block for each landowners' parcel is determined based on criteria such as the priority of that block from the landowner's view, the rank of the parcel in that block, the presence of the landowner's fixed facilities in the block, and the neighborhood structure of that block. To improve the model's ability to achieve the optimal result, a planner agent has been defined as responsible for controlling and guiding the process towards optimal land reallocation. The proposed model was applied to an Iranian case study. The results show that the reallocation plan made by the proposed method performs better than the conventional method in terms of the percentage of owners' compliance with their priorities, landowners' satisfaction, reduction of land fragmentation, and balance of land value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A hydro-economic model was applied to enhance groundwater sustainability. • A combination of system dynamics and agent-based simulation was applied. • Dynamic pricing was performed based on several parameters to sustainable consumption and cover strategy costs. • The case study of water shortage could be solved with proper demand management • In the crisis, only a combination of all the strategies (monitoring, pricing, culture, rationing) will work. Water scarcity invariably poses a threat to the sustainability of cities and rural areas with limited resources, especially in developing countries. This paper presents a new hydro-economic model based on system dynamics and agent-based simulation to enhance the sustainability of urban groundwater. Dynamic pricing was performed based on several parameters, such as resource conditions, price elasticity, consumption history and climate change, to improve the sustainability of groundwater and cover the costs of implementing strategies. Different scenarios based on pricing, rationing, culturalizing, and non-revenue water control strategies were applied in the village of Dehno in Yazd Province as the case study with an arid climate. The results showed that several scenarios can achieve the goal, but, in drought conditions, only a combination of all the strategies will work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socio-ecological systems include diverse resources of complexity involving complicated interactions, feedback, dynamic behavior patterns, heterogeneity in agents' characteristics and behaviors, as well as system uncertainties. Agent-based modeling is introduced as a tool to simulate different levels of stakeholders and interactions, including individual, group, and institutional agents in complex socio-ecological systems. In the present study, an agent-based model was developed to explore sustainable solutions in uncertain conditions for groundwater restoration of a critical aquifer in the Lake Urmia Basin, Iran. Different projects for aquifer restoration such as wells monitoring, license adjustment, and modern irrigation development were implemented in the developed framework. The results showed that it is possible to alleviate the negative balance of the aquifer in case of necessary coordination in the projects implementation. So that during the simulation period, while increasing the total annual net income of the cultivation by €1.3 million (about 7%), the groundwater level drawdown can be compensated by about 5 m (about 50% of the decline over the past 30 years). Results of sensitivity analysis on the risk-taking behavior of farmer agents showed that it has a more significant impact on the total income than groundwater level. In the risk-seeking society conditions, a 10% increase of total annual net income is expected in the early years of simulation. The framework is used to learn about the influences of agents' objectives, characteristics, and behaviors on the system variability. Systematic analysis in such a framework provides a better understanding of system structures to support decision-making under uncertainty in a participatory process. • An uncertain ANN-ABM framework is proposed to simulate a socio-hydrological system. • Agents are characterized using qualitative research method in stakeholder analysis. • The agents' communications are modeled at individual, group, and institutional levels. • Impact of various management policies are evaluated including encouraging mechanisms. • Sensitivity analysis is performed in terms of weather variability and behavioral changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An agent-based model is presented to analyze the cap-and-trade policy for groundwater resources. • We assess socio-economic and hydrologic impacts of the groundwater market. • Consideration of farmer agents' bidding, irrigation and violation decisions. • Social norms affect the efficacy of the cap-and-trade policy. Cap-and-trade policy is generally considered an effective instrument in groundwater markets since it can facilitate environmental protection and sustainable groundwater use. While this policy is implemented in several aquifers all over the world, there is a limited understanding of its social impacts, like how compliance and noncompliance behaviors may emerge. This study presents an agent-based groundwater model to evaluate the effects of monitoring and enforcement levels on farmers' social behaviors, namely boldness and vengefulness. The social, economic, and hydrologic impacts of implementing the cap-and-trade policy in the Rafsanjan Plain, located in Iran, are assessed. To this end, the groundwater market model is evaluated under different monitoring and enforcement scenarios. Results show that the efficacy of the cap-and-trade policy in groundwater markets substantially depends on the monitoring level and enforcement power. The appropriate monitoring and enforcement settings can lead to the emergence of a social norm that is enough to discourage violation and can bring about a functioning market in which the farmers can be better off economically, and the annual drawdown can become less severe. Furthermore, water buyback programs can increase market competition, compliance level, and farmers' profits. This study specifically demonstrates that as a result of the implementation of the cap-and-trade policy, social norms emerge that affect the whole system, from farmer agents to the efficacy of the policy. While this study concentrated on the application of the cap-and-trade policy in groundwater management, the results can provide a foundation for specifying frameworks of the cap-and-trade policy for managing other limited resources or greenhouse gasses emission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An agent-based groundwater market model is presented to assess water market institutions. • The model compares hydrologic and economic effects of three different market structures. • Analyzing the effects of buyback programs on the economic and hydrologic performance of water markets. Agricultural water markets play a crucial role in arid and semi-arid regions by reallocating water and transferring it from low-value uses to high-value uses. Several markets for surface water and groundwater are functioning all over the world to increase economic well-being of farmers and meet environmental flow requirements. However, there is not a consensus on precisely which market mechanism may be more environmentally and economically beneficial. This study presents an agent-based groundwater market model to analyze the economic and hydrologic impacts of three market mechanisms, designed based on the cap-and-trade scheme, that differ in the price discovery process, two of which are uniform price double-auction and the third is a discriminatory price double-auction. This study also analyzes the hydrologic and economic impacts of water buyback programs. Modeling results, applied to Rafsanjan Plain, an arid region in Iran, show that the discriminatory price double-auction is the most hydrologically and economically advantageous mechanism since it reduces the annual water level drawdown by 38 % and brings about more profits for farmers in comparison with other market mechanisms. Furthermore, the buyback program effectively reduces the inequality of wealth distribution (Gini Index) and increases farmers' net benefit while reducing their surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]