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The article provides a comprehensive review regarding the theoretical approaches, methodologies and empirical researches of corporate bankruptcy prediction, laying emphasis on the 30-year development history of Hungarian empirical results. In ex-socialist countries corporate bankruptcy prediction became possible more than 20 years later compared to the western countries, however, based on the historical development of corporate bankruptcy prediction after the political system change it can be argued that it has already caught up to the level of international best practice. Throughout the development history of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction, it can be tracked how the initial, small, cross-sectional sample and classic methodology-based bankruptcy prediction has evolved to today's corporate rating systems meeting the requirements of the dynamic, through-the-cycle economic capital calculation models. Contemporary methodological development is characterized by the domination of artificial intelligence, data mining, machine learning, and hybrid modelling. On the basis of empirical results, the article draws several normative proposals how to assemble a bankruptcy prediction database and select the right classification method(s) to accomplish efficient corporate bankruptcy prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the international financial crisis, the issue of risk management came to the fore in Hungary as well. During the recent period and nowadays, almost every enterprise, whether small or big, is experiencing the effect of crisis and the resultant after-effects. As an effect of the crisis, a significant number of enterprises got into a disadvantageous situation and several of them went bankrupt as well as many of them seriously fight for the survival. The enterprises and their creditors should be aware of the solvency of their own and of their customer, because its deterioration can cause serious difficulties for both of them. The financial position of an enterprise is relevant for the internal stakeholders as well, because it heavily affects their situation, too. For all the above reasons, there is a more and more powerful demand for such solutions which can help to predict the risk of bankruptcy. The aim of the treatise is to analyse three agricultural enterprises in liquidation through bankruptcy prediction models; these enterprises can be found in the Northern Great Plain region. The treatise draws attention to the fact that the economic situation of an enterprise in liquidation can be predicted by means of bankruptcy prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article attempts to synthesize the historical development tendencies of theoretical approaches, methodologies and empirical researches of corporate survival and bankruptcy prediction, laying emphasis on the 30-year development history of Hungarian empirical bankruptcy prediction models. Based on the historical development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction it can be argued that it has already caught up to the level of international best practice regarding the examined research problems, applied methods and empirical results. Throughout the development history of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction it can be tracked, how the initial, small, crosssectional sample and classical methodology based bankruptcy prediction has evolved to today's corporate rating systems meeting the requirements of the dynamic, through-the-cycle economic capital calculation models. Contemporary methodological development is characterized by the domination of artificial intelligence, data mining, machine learning and hybrid modelling. The article reveals that Hungarian bankruptcy models are necessary to accomplish efficient bankruptcy prediction in Hungary. Throughout model development, it is essential to consider the sampling problems, the definition of target variable, the proper accomplishment of data preparation and data transformation steps, the dynamization of variables and the inclusion of behavioural variables. In addition the article draws several normative proposals how to select the right bankruptcy prediction method(s). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important characteristics of tourism, as an economic and social phenomenon is that it has become a leading sector of the Hungarian economy. The importance of this sector is faithfully reflected by the fact that tourism gives nearly 9% of the GDP. Of course, aim of the enterprises of this type is the liquidity as well i.e. to maintain the short-term solvency that is essential for the long-term successful and smooth operation. The other aim of enterprises is to be solvent for the long-term as well, furthermore, to increase the corporate value and to maximize the ownership value. In our treatise, we have carried out the financial analysis and bankruptcy prediction of those enterprises providing accommodation service which are the biggest from the point of view of employment in the Northern Great Plain region. We think that, due to seasonality, even greater emphasis shall be placed on this area where useful information can be obtained from and the results of bankruptcy model can also provide further useful information and ”problem alerts”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]