A CSŐDELŐREJELZÉS FEJLŐDÉSTÖRTÉNETE MAGYARORSZÁGON.

The article attempts to synthesize the historical development tendencies of theoretical approaches, methodologies and empirical researches of corporate survival and bankruptcy prediction, laying emphasis on the 30-year development history of Hungarian empirical bankruptcy prediction models. Based on the historical development of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction it can be argued that it has already caught up to the level of international best practice regarding the examined research problems, applied methods and empirical results. Throughout the development history of Hungarian bankruptcy prediction it can be tracked, how the initial, small, crosssectional sample and classical methodology based bankruptcy prediction has evolved to today's corporate rating systems meeting the requirements of the dynamic, through-the-cycle economic capital calculation models. Contemporary methodological development is characterized by the domination of artificial intelligence, data mining, machine learning and hybrid modelling. The article reveals that Hungarian bankruptcy models are necessary to accomplish efficient bankruptcy prediction in Hungary. Throughout model development, it is essential to consider the sampling problems, the definition of target variable, the proper accomplishment of data preparation and data transformation steps, the dynamization of variables and the inclusion of behavioural variables. In addition the article draws several normative proposals how to select the right bankruptcy prediction method(s). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]