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Aim: Area and environmental heterogeneity together explain most patterns of species diversity but disentangling their relative importance has been difficult. Here, we empirically examined this relationship and parsed their relative importance, and that of the heterogeneity—effective area trade‐off, at different spatial scales and in different spatial representations in simulations. Location: Alpine grasslands of 23 mountain ranges of southern and central Europe. Taxon: Vascular plants. Methods: We developed metrics of climatic and edaphic heterogeneity, using principal components analyses and the shoelace algorithm, and added elevation range. We applied commonality analysis to partition the unique and shared explanation of the observed vascular plant species richness among selected metrics. A simulation was developed to separate the relative importance of area and heterogeneity at different extents and representations of spatial nestedness, and the heterogeneity—effective area trade‐off was evaluated by altering spatial discreteness. Results: The explanation of the observed regional richness was shared by area and heterogeneity. The simulation revealed that heterogeneity was consistently more important, but less so among smaller areas. This qualitative pattern was maintained regardless of whether and how nestedness was represented. The heterogeneity–effective area trade‐off occurred in a few simulations of more discrete habitats. Main Conclusions: Scale dependence may account for discrepancies among past empirical studies wherein environmental heterogeneity has usually outweighed area in the explanation of species richness; and it is not affected by nestedness. The potential heterogeneity–effective area trade‐off may be limited to locations where the environmental heterogeneity is quite discrete or if the added environment is beyond the niches of any species in the potential pool. The significant importance of area per se in small territories indicates that microrefugia, even with an unlikely full range of heterogeneity, will suffer local extinctions in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low‐cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory‐made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market‐ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year−1 biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year−1 energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year−1 carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed‐propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) are a prominent solution for reducing CO2 emissions from transport in Europe. They are equipped with at least two propulsion energy converters, an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and one or more Electric Machines (EMs), operated in a way to exploit synergies and achieve fuel efficiency. Because of the variety in configurations and strategies, the use of simulation is essential for vehicle development and characterisation of energy consumption. This paper introduces a novel simulation approach to estimate the CO2 emissions from different hybrid architectures (series, parallel, power-split) and electrification degrees (mild, full, plug-in and range extender) that is relatively simple, flexible and accurate. The approach identifies the optimal power split between the energy converters for any given time in a driving cycle according to three evaluation levels: supervisor, ICE manager and optimiser. The latter relies on the Equivalent Consumption Minimisation Strategy (ECMS) and the limitations imposed by the other two layers. Six light-duty HEVs with different hybrid architectures were tested to support the development of the approach. The results show an indicative accuracy of ±5%, enabling to run assessments of hybrid powertrain solutions and supporting regulatory and consumer information initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warehouse design is critical in the air cargo industry, where service standards are high and competition is fierce. The designers of air cargo warehouses consider various criteria like costs, system failure risks, customer perception, and marketing power to evaluate alternative designs. The issue of designing an air cargo warehouse is generally considered by design and consulting companies, which have broad experience in operational design are lacking in suggesting robust alternatives that build upon on a well-structured theoretical framework. The alternative warehouse designs are generated by considering different combinations of resource capacities such as the number of gates, workstations and storage areas. The evaluation of these alternative designs requires the use of analytical methodologies for multi-criteria decision-making. At this point, two methodologies from literature may be helpful: (i) simulation, which is a popular tool to evaluate operational performance and (ii) the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which provides the ability to evaluate qualitative as well as quantitative criteria. In this study, a flexible and user-friendly decision support system (DSS) is developed based on combining simulation and AHP. The DSS is used to generate design alternatives, evaluate their quantitative performance via simulation, and subsequently rank the best scoring ones via AHP according to a set of quantitative as well as qualitative decision criteria. The graphical interfaces are designed with a keen eye on man-machine interaction to increase their functionality. The environment is tested and validated with real-time data in one of Europe's largest air cargo carriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What was driving the migrations of the first farmers across Europe? How were demography, society, and environment interconnected to give rise to the macroregional expansion pattern that archaeology is revealing? We simulate the demography and spatial behavior of the first farming communities in the Central Balkans in order to infer the parameters and mechanisms of the Neolithic expansion in this part of Europe. We compare the simulation output to the empirical record of radiocarbon dates in order to systematically evaluate which expansion scenarios were the most probable. Our results suggest that if the expansion of the Neolithic unfolded in accord with the specific wave of advance model that we presented in this paper, the expansion was driven by very high fertility and community fission to avoid social tensions. The simulation suggests that the number of children born by an average Neolithic woman who lived through her entire fertile period was around 8 children or more, which is on the high end of the ethnographically recorded human total fertility rate spectrum. The most plausible simulated fission threshold values are between 50 and 100 people, which is usually smaller than the estimated environmental carrying capacity. This would suggest that the primary reason for the community fission and for seeking out new land was social rather than ecological. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To determine the current status of surgical training amongst European Urology Residents, including their satisfaction with training and their confidence in performing procedures. Methods: A 23-item survey was distributed to the 15th European Urology Residents Education Programme (EUREP) 2017 participants. An analysis of demographics, workload, training resources, surgical exposure, surgical caseload, satisfaction and confidence in performing each procedure was performed. Results: A total of 152/350 participants completed the survey (response rate 43%), of which 14% think they perform enough surgeries during their training, and 83% would like to continue training with a fellowship. Confidence in performing procedures without supervision and satisfaction with training was associated with higher surgical caseloads. Confidence in all laparoscopic/robotic procedures (except for laparoscopic/robotic partial nephrectomy) was associated with laparoscopic and robotics training, participation in practical courses and having training resources in hospitals. Satisfaction with surgical training was statistically associated with working ≤ 50 h per week, laparoscopic training and having laparoscopic training boxes. Conclusions: Surgical exposure of European Urology residents for major/minimally invasive procedures, confidence in performing these procedures, and overall satisfaction with training is low. A higher volume of cases, as well as resources for training are associated with higher individual confidence and satisfaction with training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, onshore wind energy is certain to play a major role in future energy systems. This topic has received significant attention from the research community, producing many estimations of Europe's onshore wind potential for capacity and generation. Despite this focus, previous estimates appear to have underpredicted both the amount of available future wind capacity as well as its performance. Foremost in this regard is the common use of contemporary, or at least near-future, turbine designs which are not fitting for a far-future context. In response to this, an improved, transparent, and fully reproducible work flow is presented here, and applied to determine a future-oriented onshore wind energy potential for Europe. Within a scenario of turbine cost and design in 2050, 13.4 TW of capacity is found to be available, allowing for 34.3 PWh of average generation per year. By sorting the explicitly-placed potential installation locations by their expected generation cost, national relationships between cost and performance versus installed capacity are found, and it is also seen that all countries possess some potential for onshore wind energy generation below 4 ct € kWh - 1. Furthermore, it is unlikely for these costs to exceed 6 ct € kWh - 1 in any future capacity scenario. • Determination of onshore wind energy potential in Europe for 2050. • Land eligibility, explicit futuristic turbine placement, and 37 simulation years. • Full potential at 13.4 TW and 34.3 PWh/a, with expected costs at or below 6 ct/kWh. • All European countries possess at least some potential below 4 ct/kWh. • Usage of futuristic turbine designs for future energy system designs is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Implementation based on MPI+OpenMP tasking for the simulation of the Human Brain (Arbor simulator). • Highly optimized and transparent implementation in terms of programmability because of the use of OpeMP tasking, OpenMP nesting, overlapping of MPI communication and OpenMP computation via OpenMP taskification of the MPI calls. • Ideal scalability (strong and weak) achieved by our implementation for mono-morphology simulations, where the neurons to be computed have the same size and shape. • Presentation of the important challenges of the multi-morphology simulations of the Human Brain. • More realistic simulations using F-Fisher distribution for the assignment of the neurons' size. Abstract The simulation of the behavior of the human brain is one of the most ambitious challenges today with a non-end of important applications. We can find many different initiatives in the USA, Europe and Japan which attempt to achieve such a challenging target. In this work, we focus on the most important European initiative (the Human Brain Project) and on one of the models developed in this project. This tool simulates the spikes triggered in a neural network by computing the voltage capacitance on the neurons' morphology, being one of the most precise simulators today. In the present work, we have evaluated the use of MPI+OpenMP tasking on top of this framework. We prove that this approach is able to achieve a good scaling even when computing a relatively low workload (number of neurons) per node. One of our targets consists of achieving not only a highly scalable implementation, but also to develop a tool with a high degree of abstraction without losing control and performance by using MPI+OpenMP tasking. The main motivation of this work is the evaluation of this cutting-edge simulation on multi-morphology neural networks. The simulation of a high number of neurons, which are completely different among them, is an important challenge. In fact, in the multi-morphology simulations, we find an important unbalancing between the nodes, mainly due to the differences in the neurons, which causes an important under-utilization of the available resources. In this work, the authors present and evaluate mechanisms to deal with this and reduce the time of this kind of simulations considerably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for intermodal rail/road and road-only routes. • Large freight shipments are simulated within and between 27 European countries. • We consider traffic conditions, train utilization, payload, power supply, etc. • It is shown that emission rates vary strongly among country pairs. • Intermodal routing emits less greenhouse gases for over 90% of the shipments. Abstract Intermodal rail/road transportation combines advantages of both modes of transport and is often seen as an effective approach for reducing the environmental impact of freight transportation. This is because it is often expected that rail transportation emits less greenhouse gases than road transportation. However, the actual emissions of both modes of transport depend on various factors like vehicle type, traction type, fuel emission factors, payload utilization, slope profile or traffic conditions. Still, comprehensive experimental results for estimating emission rates from heavy and voluminous goods in large-scale transportation systems are hardly available so far. This study describes an intermodal rail/road network model that covers the majority of European countries. Using this network model, we estimate emission rates with a mesoscopic model within and between the considered countries by conducting a large-scale simulation of road-only transports and intermodal transports. We show that there are high variations of emission rates for both road-only transportation and intermodal rail/road transportation over the different transport relations in Europe. We found that intermodal routing is more eco-friendly than road-only routing for more than 90% of the simulated shipments. Again, this value varies strongly among country pairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: Curricular integration in higher education has been widely supported in the educational literature. As a result, several health care and specifically dental curricula have evolved from compartmentalised disciplinary training to integrated modalities; however, in many courses, a pre‐clinical‐clinical watershed remains a barrier to integration in dental education. This article introduces a general description of the pre‐clinical‐clinical transition in dentistry according to the outcomes of the discussion held during the first working group session of the “Transition to Clinical Training” Special Interest Group during the 2016 annual meeting of the Association for Dental Education in Europe. Materials and Methods: An online questionnaire was made available before the meeting to survey the curricular characteristics of the participants’ schools. During the meeting, a working session related to the pre‐clinical‐clinical transition occurred. Conclusions from the discussion are summarised in this article. Results: Fourteen dental schools from 12 countries participated in the online survey. The included programmes had an average duration of 5.3 years (SD = 0.48), with high school or the local equivalent as the required entrance level for dentistry. The hybrid curriculum was the leading curriculum design (n = 9) followed by competence‐based curricula (n = 3), with patient treatment as the core of clinical training in every included programme. Conclusion: The pre‐clinical‐clinical transition in dentistry is a recognisable matter in dental education that requires assessment and research to ease the management of a stage with relevant influence on educational outcomes. This article presents an initial framework for further research and educational intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we characterize the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of cloud fraction profiles in both observations and simulation since they are critical to better assess the impact of clouds on climate variability. The spaceborne lidar onboard CALIPSO, providing cloud vertical profiles since 2006, is used together with a 23-year WRF simulation at 20 km resolution. A lidar simulator helps to compare consistently model with observations. The bias in observations due to the satellite under-sampling is first estimated. Then we examine the vertical variability of both occurrence and properties of clouds. It results that observations indicate a similar occurrence of low and high clouds over continent, and more high than low clouds over the sea except in summer. The simulation shows an overestimate (underestimate) of high (low) clouds comparing to observations, especially in summer. However the seasonal variability of cloud vertical profiles is well captured by WRF. Concerning inter-annual variability, observations show that in winter, those of high clouds is twice the low clouds one, an order of magnitude that is is well simulated. In summer, the observed inter-annual variability is vertically more homogeneous while the model still simulates more variability for high clouds than for low clouds. The good behavior of the simulation in winter allows us to use the 23 years of simulation and 8 years of observations to estimate the time period required to characterize the natural variability of the cloud fraction profile in winter, i.e. the time period required to detect significant anomalies and trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with a considerable impact on animal health and is currently one of the most important emerging diseases of domestic pigs. ASF was introduced into Georgia in 2007 and subsequently spread to the Russian Federation and several Eastern European countries. Consequently, there is a non-negligible risk of ASF spread towards Western Europe. Therefore it is important to develop tools to improve our understanding of the spread and control of ASF for contingency planning. A stochastic and dynamic spatial spread model (DTU-DADS) was adjusted to simulate the spread of ASF virus between domestic swine herds exemplified by the Danish swine population. ASF was simulated to spread via animal movement, low- or medium-risk contacts and local spread. Each epidemic was initiated in a randomly selected herd – either in a nucleus herd, a sow herd, a randomly selected herd or in multiple herds simultaneously. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on input parameters. Given the inputs and assumptions of the model, epidemics of ASF in Denmark are predicted to be small, affecting about 14 herds in the worst-case scenario. The duration of an epidemic is predicted to vary from 1 to 76 days. Substantial economic damages are predicted, with median direct costs and export losses of €12 and €349 million, respectively, when epidemics were initiated in multiple herds. Each infectious herd resulted in 0 to 2 new infected herds varying from 0 to 5 new infected herds, depending on the index herd type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To study maize ( Zea mays L.) growth and soil nitrogen (N) dynamics in monocrop and intercropped systems in a North European climate and soil conditions with the support of a simulation model. Methods: Field data for 3 years at two sites/soil types in Denmark and three main factors: (i) cropping history (maize or grass-clover), (ii) maize monocrop or intercropped with red fescue ( Festuca rubra L.) and (iii) three fertilizer N rates, were used to calibrate and validate the DAISY model for simulation of crop growth and soil N dynamics. Field and model results were used to study the treatment effects on the maize systems. Results: Intercropped maize had 15-37 % lower N leaching than monocrop maize. Maize intercropping following a maize crop was achieved without yield loss at the standard N rate or higher, while red fescue offset N leaching. Maize intercropping following grass-clover needed less N, thereby greatly reducing the N leaching. Conclusions: The hypothesis that maize intercropping with fertilizer N rates applicable to monocrop maize decreases N leaching without significant yield loss was largely supported given the effect of cropping history and soil type. The applicability of DAISY was extended to provide better analyses of intercropping systems and complex management options to reduce N leaching across northern Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel experimental approach of inter- and intramodel comparisons is conducted with five power market models to give recommendations for modelers working on decarbonization pathways of Europe until 2050. The experiments investigate the impact of model type (optimization vs. simulation), planning horizon (intertemporal vs. myopic), temporal resolution (8760 vs. 384 h), and spatial resolution (28 countries vs. 12 mega-regions). The model type fundamentally determines the evolution of capacity expansion. Planning horizon (assumed foresight of firms) plays a minor role for scenarios with high carbon prices. For low carbon prices in turn, results from myopic models deviate considerably from those of intertemporal models. Lower temporal and spatial resolutions foster wind power via storage and via neglected transmission boundaries, respectively. Using simulation instead of optimization frameworks, a shorter planning horizon of firms, or lower temporal and spatial resolutions might be necessary to reduce the computational complexity. This paper delivers recommendations on how to limit the discrepancies in such cases. • Comparison of five power market models with harmonized input data and model features. • Evaluating the role of model type, planning horizon, spatial and temporal resolution. • Model type decisive for investment decisions. • Myopic modeling hardly changes variable renewable energy expansion but might favor conventional power plants. • Spatial and temporal resolution crucial for ease of variable renewable energy integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Night cooling effects on energy demand of a block-shaped office building. [•] Time-dependent night ventilation rates estimated by Airflow Network Model. [•] Impact of C p source on predicted natural ventilation rates up to 15%. [•] Limited effect of C p source on cooling energy savings. [•] In colder climates larger sensitivity of energy savings to C p sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) dynamics in ley-arable cropping systems require better understanding in order to assess the potential of such systems to contribute to improved productivity and reduced nutrient losses in crop production. Large inputs of organic matter after termination of the ley phase result in increased mineralization and N availability to subsequent crops. The description and quantification of this residual N effect in ley-arable systems remains a major scientific challenge due to its variability and many influencing factors. Simulation modeling could contribute to improved understanding of N dynamics in ley-arable systems. The aim of this study was to evaluate the robustness of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to predict biomass yield, N yield, and N leaching of different forage maize systems in northwest Europe, while using two different approaches to predict the residual N effect. The evaluation was based on three field experiments covering plant phenology, biomass, N yield, and N leaching over several years. Model adjustments were necessary to describe mineralization of organic matter and release of N after ploughing of the grass leys. For this purpose, three scenarios were investigated by accounting for either (1) aboveground grass residues; (2) above- and belowground grass residues, both with the generic turnover approach in the model; or (3) N release depending on the carbon-to-N ratio of the residue compiled in a simple mineralization model (SMM). The results showed that APSIM-simulated biomass and N yield of maize were reasonable to poor across the different systems and sites, regardless of using the residue-related approach. The SMM performed more accurately compared to the generic turnover approach in predicting N leaching in a maize following a grass-clover ley. However, for all scenarios, APSIM had difficulties to predict a delay of N leaching observed in the experimental data after a pure ryegrass ley. In conclusion, the process description in APSIM related to organic matter mineralization in ley-arable systems under northwest European pedo-climatic conditions needs improved accounting of belowground grass residues, while the SMM is of added value to improve N mineralization patterns and leaching after a ley phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Process-based crop simulation models are increasingly used in regional climate change impact studies, but little is known about the implications of different calibration strategies on simulated yields. This study aims to assess the importance of region-specific calibration of five important field crops (winter wheat, winter barley, potato, sugar beet and maize) across 25 member countries of the European Union (EU25). We examine three calibration strategies and their implications on spatial and temporal yield variability in response to climate change: (i) calculation of phenology parameters only, (ii) consideration of both phenology calibration and a yield correction factor and (iii) calibration of phenology and selected growth processes. The analysis is conducted for 533 climate zones, considering 24 years of observed yield data (1983–2006). The best performing strategy is used to estimate the impacts of climate change, increasing CO2 concentration and technology development on yields for the five crops across EU25, using seven climate change scenarios for the period 2041–2064. Simulations and calibrations are performed with the crop model LINTUL2 combined with a calibration routine implemented in the modelling interface LINTUL-FAST. The results show that yield simulations improve if growth parameters are considered in the calibration for individual regions (strategy 3); e.g. RMSE values for simulated winter wheat yield are 2.36, 1.10 and 0.70Mgha−1 for calibration strategies 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The calibration strategy did not only affect the model simulations under reference climate but also the extent of the simulated climate change impacts. Applying the calibrated model for impact assessment revealed that climatic change alone will reduce crop yields. Consideration of the effects of increasing CO2 concentration and technology development resulted in yield increases for all crops except maize (i.e. the negative effects of climate change were outbalanced by the positive effects of CO2 and technology change), with considerable differences between scenarios and regions. Our simulations also suggest some increase in yield variability due to climate change which, however, is less pronounced than the differences among scenarios which are particularly large when the effects of CO2 concentration and technology development are considered. Our results stress the need for region-specific calibration of crop models used for Europe-wide assessments. Limitations of the considered strategies are discussed. We recommend that future work should focus on obtaining more comprehensive, high quality data with a finer resolution allowing application of improved strategies for model calibration that better account for spatial differences and changes over time in the growth and development parameters used in crop models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study aims to address how efforts spent in geotechnical site investigation can link to the final design dimensions of a geotechnical structure. An example of pad foundation design supported by boulder clay (developed by European Technical Committee 10) is used as a demonstration. Three aspects of geotechnical information are addressed: variety of in-situ and laboratory tests, precision of the tests, and local experiences in soil properties that permit reduction of transformation uncertainties between test indices and design parameters. Three design methods (allowable stress design ASD, partial-factor design PFD, and reliability-based design RBD) are considered. Among these methods, RBD is found to be most responsive to the availability of geotechnical information, whether in the form of site investigation efforts and/or local experiences. It is accurate to say that RBD can fill a critical gap in current geotechnical design practice, namely to monetize the value of geotechnical information in the form of increase/reduction of construction costs associated with changes in the design dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45–65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45–55°N, oat had its maximum at 55–65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper focuses on market incentives by the introduction of a construction minerals tax as an example of a resource tax. Currently, various European countries levy taxes or duties on primary construction materials, but a harmonisation of the taxation is not planned. Provided the tax rate has a perceptible price effect, the taxation of a resource can foster a demand management or the reduction of the raw material consumption and the governance of side and secondary effects. A construction minerals tax can target the stimulation of demand for secondary raw materials and recycled products, and-because the reuse of construction and demolition waste has technical limits-a stronger emphasis on the conservation of buildings and infrastructures. This has positive effects on the environment and the innovation efforts and it helps to internalise externalities. Germany, used as a case study in this paper, does not raise any taxes on other raw materials than energy sources at the federal level. For this reason, potential impacts of the introduction of a construction minerals tax will be explored and the results of a simulation will be provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Electoral turnout has been declining at national elections in almost all Western democracies. European Parliament (EP) elections have followed the same trend. We utilize a previously suggested method for separating the effect of generation, age and period and show that a major part of the decline can be attributed to the difference in turnout between pre- and post-baby-boomer generations though there are substantial differences across countries. Age has a curvilinear effect on turnout even when generation is taken into account, but the age composition has remained relatively stable over time. We utilize the estimated coefficients to predict future changes in turnout as a result of the expected shifts in the generational and age compositions over the next 30 years. The results point to a continued decline in turnout to EP elections – especially between the years of 2020 and 2040. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study I examine the use of visualization within everyday research practices in computational physics. In doing so, I attempt to move from the well documented representational issues elicited by the concept of the image, to more microscale issues of the habitual structuring of the everyday that emerge when a specific example of science in the making is analysed. To this end, I focus on one specific example, of tracing a computational error through a fluid dynamics simulation of the 'lock exchange' experiment. This simulation is one small part of the research that goes on within one of Europe's largest computational physics research groups, the Applied Modelling and Computation Group at Imperial College in London, where I am involved in ongoing ethnographic fieldwork research. Visualization is shown to play a central role, not just in daily routines of investigation and problem solving, but in the process of habituation through which scientists cultivate the dispositions through which everyday life gains its texture and form. Far from being a detachable representation of a part of a world, simulation is shown to come into being as a process within a world structured by the repetitions and improvizations that characterize research practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extra premiums may be charged to a client to guarantee a minimum payout of a contract on a portfolio that gets rebalanced back to fixed proportions on a regular basis. The valuation of this premium can be seen as that of the pricing of a European put option with underlying rebalanced portfolio. This paper finds the most eficient estimators for the value of this path-dependent multi-asset put option using difierent Monte Carlo methods. With the help of a refined method, computational time of the value decreased significantly. Furthermore, variance reduction techniques and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods delivered more accurate and faster converging estimates as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We compared the performance of eight widely used, easily accessible and well-documented crop growth simulation models (APES, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT, FASSET, HERMES, STICS and WOFOST) for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) during 49 growing seasons at eight sites in northwestern, Central and southeastern Europe. The aim was to examine how different process-based crop models perform at the field scale when provided with a limited set of information for model calibration and simulation, reflecting the typical use of models for large-scale applications, and to present the uncertainties related to this type of model application. Data used in the simulations consisted of daily weather statistics, information on soil properties, information on crop phenology for each cultivar, and basic crop and soil management information. Our results showed that none of the models perfectly reproduced recorded observations at all sites and in all years, and none could unequivocally be labelled robust and accurate in terms of yield prediction across different environments and crop cultivars with only minimum calibration. The best performance regarding yield estimation was for DAISY and DSSAT, for which the RMSE values were lowest (1428 and 1603kgha−1) and the index of agreement (0.71 and 0.74) highest. CROPSYST systematically underestimated yields (MBE – 1186kgha−1), whereas HERMES, STICS and WOFOST clearly overestimated them (MBE 1174, 1272 and 1213kgha−1, respectively). APES, DAISY, HERMES, STICS and WOFOST furnished high total above-ground biomass estimates, whereas CROPSYST, DSSAT and FASSET provided low total above-ground estimates. Consequently, DSSAT and FASSET produced very high harvest index values, followed by HERMES and WOFOST. APES and DAISY, on the other hand, returned low harvest index values. In spite of phenological observations being provided, the calibration results for wheat phenology, i.e. estimated dates of anthesis and maturity, were surprisingly variable, with the largest RMSE for anthesis being generated by APES (20.2 days) and for maturity by HERMES (12.6). The wide range of grain yield estimates provided by the models for all sites and years reflects substantial uncertainties in model estimates achieved with only minimum calibration. Mean predictions from the eight models, on the other hand, were in good agreement with measured data. This applies to both results across all sites and seasons as well as to prediction of observed yield variability at single sites – a very important finding that supports the use of multi-model estimates rather than reliance on single models. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Individual members of a population of 'prolonged' breeding amphibian species are asynchronously present at their breeding sites. Therefore, population size estimates can be misleading when based on commonly used closed or open-population capture-mark-recapture approaches. The superpopulation approach, a modified Jolly-Seber model, has been successfully applied in taxa other than amphibians with distinct migratory behaviour and where individuals are asynchronously present at the sampling site. In this paper, we suggest that the superpopulation approach is a useful population size estimator for 'prolonged' breeding amphibian species. Two case studies on European anurans show that superpopulation estimates are much higher than simple population counts. A simulation study showed that superpopulation estimates are unbiased but that accuracy can be low when either survival or detection probabilities (or both) are low. We recommend the superpopulation approach because it matches the natural history and phenology of amphibian species with prolonged breeding seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remontoire mechanisms are subassemblies of mechanical time keepers, frequently seen inside of large tower and public mechanical clocks. The most important purpose of these mechanisms is to supply a secondary, smooth and constant source of power to the escapement and thus to increase the clock accuracy. This paper explains the design, solid modelling and motion simulation of the gravity driven train remontoire mechanism. The design is based on kinematic analysis of the mechanism operating cycle, which is presented in all necessary details. A three-dimensional model is built and motion simulation of this device is accomplished and demonstrated by the using of SolidWorks software. Since old public church and tower clocks are considered as historical monuments of Serbia and many other European countries, results of this analysis and simulations can offer valuable information and practical instructions for their reparation, preservation and maintenance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Virtual reality (VR) simulators have been demonstrated to improve basic psychomotor skills in endoscopic surgery. The exercise configuration settings used for validation in studies published so far are default settings or are based on the personal choice of the tutors. The purpose of this study was to establish consensus on exercise configurations and on a validated training program for a virtual reality simulator, based on the experience of international experts to set criterion levels to construct a proficiency-based training program. Methods: A consensus meeting was held with eight European teams, all extensively experienced in using the VR simulator. Construct validity of the training program was tested by 20 experts and 60 novices. The data were analyzed by using the t test for equality of means. Results: Consensus was achieved on training designs, exercise configuration, and examination. Almost all exercises (7/8) showed construct validity. In total, 50 of 94 parameters (53%) showed significant difference. Conclusions: A European, multicenter, validated, training program was constructed according to the general consensus of a large international team with extended experience in virtual reality simulation. Therefore, a proficiency-based training program can be offered to training centers that use this simulator for training in basic psychomotor skills in endoscopic surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Silvoarable agroforestry, the integration of trees and arable crops on the same area, has the potential to offer production, ecological, and societal benefits. However, the uptake of such systems in Europe has been limited by a combination of unsupportive policies and uncertainty concerning their productivity, profitability, and environmental impact. Faced with a lack of experimental data, the parameter-sparse Yield-SAFE model offers one method for generating plausible yield data and improving understanding of production in mixed tree–crop systems under European conditions. The applicability of the model was examined by: (i) selecting two contrasting sites in France and the UK with measured agricultural, silvoarable and/or forestry data, (ii) implementing the model in a software package, and (iii) inputting data and parameters on the climate, soils, management regime, and tree and crop types. Following calibration, Yield-SAFE provided credible descriptions of measured arable and tree (Populus spp.) yields in the monoculture and silvoarable systems at the two sites. An examination of the response of the model to changes in model parameters and environmental and management data showed that silvoarable crop yields were most sensitive to variations in tree parameters. Increased soil depths increased timber yields, and increasing stand density increased stand volume whilst decreasing individual tree volume. In all the simulations, the model predicted greater efficiency in use of land, i.e. greater land equivalent ratios, when trees and crops were combined rather than grown as sole crops. These results, supported by the sparse experimental data available, indicate that agroforestry provides a method of increasing food, timber and biomass production from limited land resources in Europe. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The European Union is probably the most complex political and institutional decision-making structure known to humankind. Nowadays, scholars increasingly agree that no single theory can explain all the mechanisms at work in the system of EU governance and decision-making at all levels in any satisfactory way. Even for trained experts and specialists, the complexity of the EU machinery is extremely difficult to grasp. The extensive academic debate in this area is an indicator for both the sophistication of the scholarly discussion and the uncertainty of those who are trying to understand and explain the European integration project. For students who are just learning about the field, trying to untangle that complexity is even more challenging. The difficult task for teachers and instructors is finding ways to introduce students to the institutional framework and the related legislative processes of EU decision-making, and thereby help to facilitate their understanding of the nature of the Union. The purpose of this study is to suggest an alternative teaching method. The simulation "EU Chocolate Directive," can provide participants with the tools necessary to negotiate more effectively at the EU level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis studies how the variation in model outputs can be due to different sources of variation. This issue is addressed, in this study, as an application of sensitivity analysis techniques to a crop model in the Mediterranean region. In particular, an application of Morris and Sobol'' sensitivity analysis methods to the rice model WARM is presented. The output considered is aboveground biomass at maturity, simulated at five rice districts of different countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) for years characterized by low, intermediate, and high continentality. The total effect index of Sobol'' (that accounts for the total contribution to the output variation due a given parameter) and two Morris indices (mean μ and standard deviation σ of the ratios output changes/parameter variations) were used as sensitivity metrics. Radiation use efficiency (RUE), optimum temperature (T opt), and leaf area index at emergence (LAIini) ranked in most of the combinations site×year as first, second and third most relevant parameters. Exceptions were observed, depending on the sensitivity method (e.g. LAIini resulted not relevant by the Morris method), or site-continentality pattern (e.g. with intermediate continentality in Spain, LAIini and T opt were second and third ranked; with low continentality in Portugal, RUE was outranked by T opt). Low σ values associated with the most relevant parameters indicated limited parameter interactions. The importance of sensitivity analyses by exploring site×climate combinations is discussed as pre-requisite to evaluate either novel crop-modelling approaches or the application of known modelling solutions to conditions not explored previously. The need of developing tools for sensitivity analysis within the modelling environment is also emphasized. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Studying European Politics can be a challenge! And this is not surprising: even the best scholarly minds of European politics often struggle to give precise definition to such a young, but already so complex and constantly evolving polity as the European Union, and are increasingly at odds with identifying its prospects for survival. One way to achieve a better understanding of the subject is to utilize a threshold concept approach, which is essentially a “less is more” approach that chooses to work with a few “founding” concepts, and identifies a “road map” for independent learning of broader but essentially inter-connected issues of the discipline. The threshold concept approach becomes even more effective if combined with enactive learning—that is, learning-by-doing, through role taking and simulation of the threshold concepts during seminars. Such learning evidently exceeds the boundaries of conventional knowledge and becomes a useful transferable investment for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Introduction: Compliance with the European Working Time Directive has made obvious the need for a surgical skills training system that will produce surgeons fast and reliably. We have previously proposed a model for objective assessment of surgical dexterity. In this paper we aim to place an updated version of that model into the context of a holistic approach on assessment of a trainee''s progress towards becoming an independently operating surgeon. Methods: The PAR matrix breaks down an operation into clearly defined skills that need to be successively acquired. It consists of a 3×6 table depicting 18 skill-goals. The y-axis is divided into six levels and the x-axis into three columns. The initials of the three skills on each level form the acronym PAR. Each skill is further graded from 1 to 3 (unsatisfactory, competent, good). The levels are: Level 1 – posture, address, relaxation; Level 2 – pick-up, airtime, rotation; Level 3 – placing, angles, rhythm; Level 4 – precision, adaptability, reproducibility; Level 5 – pace, awareness, relations; Level 6 – planning, announce, review/reflexion. Results: The format of the PAR model is such that it allows trainer and trainee to objectively assess progress, identify deficiencies and strengths and formulate an appropriate plan of action. Conclusion: Ergonomics and crew resource management skills are essential for a safe operating environment. The PAR matrix may prove helpful in selection of trainees and revalidation of trainee surgeons as a competence and performance testing method, placed in the appropriate training curriculum. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Objective: To present the effective applications of paediatric medical simulation in terms of education, evaluation, density, development, goals and constraints. Study design: Survey realized within 38 paediatric simulation centres (PSC) in Europe, identified by Web search and through the Society in Europe for Simulation Applied to Medicine (SESAM©). Results: Twenty centers answered the questionnaire (52%). Ninety-four percent of the PSC had beforehand acquired an experience of adult medical simulation, 94.6% of the PSC were created before 2006. Ninety percent of the PSC owned at least one high-fidelity pediatric simulator. The 80% of the PSC indicated multiple funding sources. Eighty percent of the PSC had at least one specific instructor for the paediatric simulation (average=2.7 paediatric instructors per centre). The PCS reported to get onto various topics: neonatology (25% of the PCS), prehospital medicine (36.8%), paediatric anaesthesiology (74%) and paediatric intensive care (89%). Simulation allowed 70% of the centers to lead some research project. Ninety-five percent of the centers agreed about an European collaboration on research projects or about the mutualization of the created scenarios. Conclusion: The material, financial and human means of the interviewed centres are consequential but heterogeneous in Europe. MSP offers numerous and various application fields and generates some research activity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Solanum sisymbriifolium (Lam.), a plant that was introduced as a trap crop for potato cyst nematodes, shows strong temperature limitation of its growth. Previous research indicated that the crop needs to accumulate at least 700gm−2 dry matter to achieve sufficient nematode control. In that context, three functionally different geographical zones can be distinguished: (i) a zone with insufficient growth, independent of sowing time, (ii) a zone with potentially sufficient growth if the crop is allowed to grow for the whole growing season, and (iii) a zone with sufficient growth early or late in the growing season, opening the option to combine cultivation of the trap crop with another crop in the same year. The aim of the current research was to delimit these zones for western and central Europe, by developing a model enabling simulation of the potential growth of S. sisymbriifolium in 64 locations between Scandinavia and Spain and between the UK and Hungary. A LINTUL type crop growth model for potential growth was adapted to S. sisymbriifolium. Adaptations regarded particularly the relative growth rate of the leaf area, the specific leaf area, and the radiation use efficiency, that were made temperature dependent using experimental data. Furthermore, the leaf death rates were modelled as limited by light availability in the canopy. The model was calibrated with field data from an experiment in 2002, and validated on field experiments in 2001, 2003 and 2004, resulting in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 118.1gm−2 crop dry matter and a mean deviation (MD) of −15.9gm−2 for the validation data. Simulations were done for the 64 sites, using weather data from 1996 to 1999, and the studied area was divided in the three zones (i, ii and iii) as described above. In all regions the crop could reach the required minimum size, although barely so in Scandinavia and the north of the United Kingdom. Zone (ii) included the south of the United Kingdom and Sweden, The Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and the north of France. Zone (iii) included the rest of France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Hungary; here temperature and radiation suffice for the crop to reach its required minimum size in only part of the growing season, leaving space for an other (main) crop in the same season, at least in the absence of water limitations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Simple Summary: The current study provides an insight into the binding and dynamic differences between wild-type RBD and B.1.620, which harbor S477N-E484K mutations in the spike protein's receptor-binding domain (RBD). Our analysis revealed that though the number of hydrogen bonds and salt bridges remained the same, the binding affinity of B.1.620 for ACE2 was higher than that of the wild type, consequently increasing infectivity. Moreover, the stable dynamics and other features further justify the findings, corroborating the previous literature. Recently, a new variant, B.1620, with mutations (S477N-E484K) in the spike protein's receptor-binding domain (RBD) has been reported in Europe. In order to design therapeutic strategies suitable for B.1.620, further studies are required. A detailed investigation of the structural features and variations caused by these substitutions, that is, a molecular level investigation, is essential to uncover the role of these changes. To determine whether and how the binding affinity of ACE2–RBD is affected, we used protein–protein docking and all-atom simulation approaches. Our analysis revealed that B.1.620 binds more strongly than the wild type and alters the hydrogen bonding network. The docking score for the wild type was reported to be −122.6 +/− 0.7 kcal/mol, while for B.1.620, the docking score was −124.9 +/− 3.8 kcal/mol. A comparative binding investigation showed that the wild-type complex has 11 hydrogen bonds and one salt bridge, while the B.1.620 complex has 14 hydrogen bonds and one salt bridge, among which most of the interactions are preserved between the wild type and B.1.620. A dynamic analysis of the two complexes revealed stable dynamics, which corroborated the global stability trend, compactness, and flexibility of the three essential loops, providing a better conformational optimization opportunity and binding. Furthermore, binding free energy revealed that the wild type had a total binding energy of −51.14 kcal/mol, while for B.1.628, the total binding energy was −68.25 kcal/mol. The current findings based on protein complex modeling and bio-simulation methods revealed the atomic features of the B.1.620 variant harboring S477N and E484K mutations in the RBD and the basis for infectivity. In conclusion, the current study presents distinguishing features of B.1.620, which can be used to design structure-based drugs against the B.1.620 variant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a simple guardrail end treatment, called TWINY, designed particularly for use with a thrie-beam guardrail system is developed. In the first phase, the system is designed and analyzed using a versatile, highly nonlinear finite-element analysis program LS-DYNA. Two different crashes involving a head on impact and a 15° angle impact are simulated using LS-DYNA. In both simulations, a nominal 900 kg car traveling at 80 km/h is used to impact the end treatment as outlined in European Crash Testing Guidelines EN1317 section 4. Based on the successful simulation results, both tests are repeated in a crash test facility in Germany to substantiate simulation predictions. Full-scale crash testing results compared favorably with those obtained from LS-DYNA simulation. Based on the results, a final full-scale crash testing was carried out on the system to fully verify its compliance with the EN1317 section 4. A 1,300 kg compact car traveling at 80 km/h impacted the end terminal at its midlength at an angle of 15°. The vehicle is successfully redirected with minimal damage to both vehicle and terminal. Based on the simulation and full-scale crash test results, it can be concluded that TWINY is a promising end treatment for steel thrie-beam guardrail terminals and can be implemented at the European Highway System with confidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An equivalence is proposed between two rainfall-runoff methods with a long history of use in the United States and Europe. In watersheds where variable source areas dominate runoff, the two methods can have comparable probability distribution functions of moisture deficit, and therefore predict similar saturated runoff source areas. A novel approach is introduced to determine the S parameter in the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) method. This approach constrains S by the physical soil and topography characteristics of the catchment and depth to water table. The NRCS curve number method is at the core of many rainfall-runoff models in hydrology. As a simple lumped parameter method, it is often scrutinized because it is not obvious how to derive S from catchment hydromorphological characteristics. The novel approach provides a clear physical meaning for S, allowing better estimation of this parameter in humid shallow water table environments where the variable source area can be the dominant runoff mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design and feasibility of genetic studies of complex diseases are critically dependent on the extent and distribution of linkage disequilibrium (LD) across the genome and between different populations. We have examined genomewide and region-specific LD in a young genetically isolated population identified in the Netherlands by genotyping approximately 800 Short Tandem Repeat markers distributed genomewide across 58 individuals. Several regions were analyzed further using a denser marker map. The permutation-corrected measure of LD was used for analysis. A significant (P<0.0004) relation between LD and genetic distance on a genomewide scale was found. Distance explained 4% of the total LD variation. For fine-mapping data, distance accounted for a larger proportion of LD variation (up to 39%). A notable similarity in the genomewide distribution of LD was revealed between this population and other young genetically isolated populations from Micronesia and Costa Rica. Our study population and experiment was simulated in silico to confirm our knowledge of the history of the population. High agreement was observed between results of analysis of simulated and empirical data. We conclude that our population shows a high level of LD similar to that demonstrated previously in other young genetic isolates. In Europe, there may be a large number of young genetically isolated populations that are similar in history to ours. In these populations, a similar degree of LD is expected and thus they may be effectively used for linkage or LD mapping.European Journal of Human Genetics (2004) 12, 527-534. doi:10.1038/sj.ejhg.5201188 Published online 31 March 2004 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the UK, heating systems in the built environment consume a substantial proportion of its total energy and are responsible for about 25% of the total carbon emission. A similar pattern is also exhibited in many other European countries. Despite the enormous effort made over the last decades to improve the energy efficiency of these heating systems, a huge potential for further energy saving still persists. This paper investigates the potential for energy saving in heating systems that can be achieved through improving boiler controls. This investigation was carried out through surveys, simulation and experimental study. Through the surveys, typical boiler control schemes widely used in current practice were identified. The performance of some systems surveyed was monitored through the survey. The data obtained is used to demonstrate the problems associated with the control of boilers in heating systems. These typical control schemes identified through surveys were studied using a simulator that had been rigorously validated. An experiment was carried out to demonstrate how the overall performance of a heating system could be improved by using a better boiler controller. The result shows that improving boiler controls can lead to up to 20% of energy saving and a significant improvement in thermal comfort. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper demonstrates the use of an in-class simulation to model negotiations in the European Council. Simulations are an increasingly popular way to teach the complex processes of policymaking and negotiations in the European Union (EU) where institutional procedures are difficult to understand and where intergovernmental and supranational issues often conflict. Advocates of active learning promote simulations to get students more involved and to reach an increasingly diverse student body. The simulation presented here has three separate sessions, each covering a different issue and lasting for a week (two class days) each. Modeling the European Council allows students to experience the intergovernmental side of policy decisions in the European Union while at the same time learning about the issues facing EU policymakers. It is a useful tool for teaching about the EU presidency and a worthwhile exercise for studying the national aspects of European integration. Student surveys indicate that students process the information they gain by role-playing better than information they receive in the traditional classroom. A simulation of the European Council gives students a base for understanding issues of European integration and can serve as a springboard for further study of EU institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two of the ways in which air travel affects climate are the emission of carbon dioxide and the creation of high-altitude contrails. One possible impact reduction strategy is to significantly reduce the formation of contrails. This could be achieved by limiting the cruise altitude of aircraft. If implemented, this could severely constrain air space capacity, especially in parts of Europe. In addition, carbon emissions would likely be higher due to less efficient aircraft operation at lower cruise altitudes. This paper describes an analysis of these trade-offs using an air space simulation model as applied to European airspace. The model simulates the flight paths and altitudes of each aircraft and is here used to calculate emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the journey time. For a one-day Western European traffic sample, calculations suggest annual mean CO2 emissions would increase by only 4% if cruise altitudes were restricted to prevent contrail formation. The change in journey time depended on aircraft type and route, but average changes were less than 1 min. Our analysis demonstrates that altitude restrictions on commercial aircraft could be an effective means of reducing climate change impacts, though it will be necessary to mitigate the increased controller workload conflicts that this will generate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The strong expansion of freight road transports throughout Europe is an important source of congestion and pollution, as well as a cause of many accidents. To solve this problem will require the conjunction of many different remedies. One element of solution would be the promotion and substitution of transportation modes with less negative effects. This paper is focused on this solution. It presents some results obtained from a detailed GIS modelling of the Belgian multimodal freight transport network inserted within the overall trans-European network. It outlines the results of a simulation of the flows over the Belgian network in 1995 which allows to estimate some of the costs of several external effects of freight transports: the costs of pollution, congestion, accidents, noise and road damages. This paper provides also the simulated impacts on modal choice of a marginal external cost internalisation, and an estimation of the corresponding external cost savings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Real historic buildings with artworks are examined. • Indoor environment, thermal comfort and energy performance were assessed. • The indoor environment is simulated and validated with on-site measurements. • Future indoor climate conditions were predicted for a 2050 scenario. • Future climate change will increase cooling demand. Climate change will affect the indoor temperature of historic buildings, impacting the preservation of artworks and the thermal comfort of users, and possibly leading to increased energy consumption. These buildings generate more emissions than new buildings and in most European countries, preservation principles take precedence over energy efficiency and the reduction of emissions. This research is a key topic for the mitigation of climate change and proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on the preservation of artworks, thermal comfort, and energy consumption. An experimental method was followed, combining analytical formulations, on-site measurements, and Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning systems in order to identify the adequate hygrothermal parameters for historic buildings. The climate change scenario predicted for 2050 was based on projected temperature variation. The case studies were Baroque churches, historic buildings located in the south of Europe. Data obtained from a monitoring campaign carried out in these churches was used to validate dynamic simulation models. The churches analysed showed an increase in cooling demand and a decrease in heating demand. Furthermore, in order to ensure human comfort and the preservation of artworks, it was necessary to implement active systems in operation for 12-hour periods. These results suggest an energy overconsumption, as the energy consumption for human comfort and artwork preservation was 50% higher than the energy consumption of active systems for the preservation of valuable historic objects. In addition, the annual energy consumption decreases for future scenarios for 2050 in the case of artwork preservation and thermal comfort, but increases by almost 15% for the preservation of works of art due to higher level relative humidity. Before historic buildings can be adapted, it is essential to understand the influence of the future climate on their design, construction, and environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Homes built prior 1979 shows greater dispersion in basic parameters and typologies. • Energy demand increases 37% in future scenario assuming moderate climate change. • Insulation techniques are less effective on the future climate change scenario. • General prediction models based on probability are provided. Social housing dating from the period between the Second World War and the end of the oil crisis is one of the major stores of residential stock of European cities. This housing stock is a major target for retrofitting given its characteristic poor thermal performance and inefficient control of energy consumption. This article proposes a method for analysing the dynamic capacity of thermal enclosures on moderate energy flows in building stock in climate change scenarios, estimating the potential for adaptation and strengths and weaknesses of several building categories exposed to different present and future climate scenarios. A pilot study applying the procedure is carried out in the city of Seville, one of the largest in southern Europe, with a representative northern Mediterranean climate. The approach designed is equally applicable to other urban centres in southern Europe. Although indoor comfort in cold weather must be addressed even in the least favourable future scenarios, the predominant concern for this stock is controlling heat gain. This study shows how, regardless of individual situations, thermal insulation alone does not guarantee an optimal response for the stock as a whole. Different categories can be identified within a given stock, where some buildings display significant resilience and potential for adaptation to new scenarios, while others have less scope for improvement. These conclusions can provide guidelines for the design of future intervention policies in southern Europe. Image, graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]