The performance of Mediterranean low-income housing in scenarios involving climate change.

• Homes built prior 1979 shows greater dispersion in basic parameters and typologies. • Energy demand increases 37% in future scenario assuming moderate climate change. • Insulation techniques are less effective on the future climate change scenario. • General prediction models based on probability are provided. Social housing dating from the period between the Second World War and the end of the oil crisis is one of the major stores of residential stock of European cities. This housing stock is a major target for retrofitting given its characteristic poor thermal performance and inefficient control of energy consumption. This article proposes a method for analysing the dynamic capacity of thermal enclosures on moderate energy flows in building stock in climate change scenarios, estimating the potential for adaptation and strengths and weaknesses of several building categories exposed to different present and future climate scenarios. A pilot study applying the procedure is carried out in the city of Seville, one of the largest in southern Europe, with a representative northern Mediterranean climate. The approach designed is equally applicable to other urban centres in southern Europe. Although indoor comfort in cold weather must be addressed even in the least favourable future scenarios, the predominant concern for this stock is controlling heat gain. This study shows how, regardless of individual situations, thermal insulation alone does not guarantee an optimal response for the stock as a whole. Different categories can be identified within a given stock, where some buildings display significant resilience and potential for adaptation to new scenarios, while others have less scope for improvement. These conclusions can provide guidelines for the design of future intervention policies in southern Europe. Image, graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]