1. Extrapolation is not enough: Impacts of extreme land-use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models.
- Author
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Wohland, Jan, Hoffmann, Peter, Lima, Daniela C. A., Breil, Marcus, Asselin, Olivier, and Rechid, Diana
- Subjects
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WIND power , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *EXTRAPOLATION , *AFFORESTATION , *WIND speed - Abstract
Humans change the climate in many ways. In addition to greenhouse gases, climate model inputs thus include a number of other forcings like land-use change. While studies typically investigate the joint effects of all forcings, we here isolate the impact of afforestation and deforestation on winds in the lowermost 350 m of the atmosphere to quantify the relevance of the lower boundary condition for large-scale wind energy assessments. We use vertically resolved sub-daily output from two regional climate models instead of extrapolating near-surface winds with simplified profiles. Comparing two extreme scenarios, we report that afforestation reduces wind speeds by more than 1 m/s in many locations across Europe even 300 m above ground and thus remains relevant at hub heights of current and future wind turbines. We show that standard extrapolation with modified parameters approximates long-term means well but fails to capture essential spatio-temporal details, such as changes in the daily cycle, and is thus insufficient to estimate wind energy potentials. Using adjacent climate model levels to account for spatio-temporal wind profile complexity, we report that wind energy capacity factors are strongly impacted by afforestation and deforestation: they differ by more than 0.1 in absolute terms and up to 50% in relative terms. Our results confirm earlier studies that land use change impacts on wind energy can be severe and that they are generally misrepresented with common extrapolation techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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