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Mandatory use of low-sulfur fuel according to global sulfur limit regulation has reduced the emissions of SO2 and PM significantly on ships, while it also leads to very large uncertainty on VOCs emission. Therefore, on-board test of VOCs from 9 typical cargo ships with low-sulfur fuels in China were carried out in this study. Results showed that emission factor of VOCs (EFVOCs) varied largely from 0.09 to 3.01 g kg-1 fuel, with domestic coastal cargo ships (CCSs) had the highest levels and ocean-going vessels (OGVs) the lowest. The switch of fuels from heavy fuel oil (HFO) to diesel increased EFVOCs by 48 % on average, which enhanced both O3 and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation potentials, especially for OGVs. Besides, the use of low-sulfur fuels for OGVs also lead to significant increase of naphthalene emission. These indicated the implementation of globally ultra-low-sulfur oil policy in the near future needs to be optimized. Moreover, aromatics were the most important common contributors to O3 and SOA in ship exhausts, which need to be controlled with priority. It was also found that benzene, toluene, and ethylbenzene ratio of 0.5:0.3:0.2 on average could be considered as a diagnostic characteristic to distinguish ship emission from other emission sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to comply with the latest Emission Control Areas (ECAs) regulations, ships must use expensive low-sulphur fuel oil or relatively cheap high-sulphur fuel oil (HFO) with desulphurization equipment. This study investigates the choice of green fuel and green technology for a coastal container ship with endogenous decision of sailing pattern. The sufficient and necessary conditions for a ship to adopt scrubber installation (SI) strategy are derived, which is dependent on factors including the equivalent sailing distance, the fuel price ratio, and scrubber parameters. The case study based on the China's coastal area is conducted. Numerical examples show that the introduction of scrubber technology on coastal vessels will reduce their evasion behavior. However, the increased sulphur reduction efficiency of scrubbers increases the evasion strategies of ships, which will increase the total emissions in coastal areas. The numerical example shows that introduction the scrubber technology to the coastal ships will reduce their evasion behavior. However, the scrubber investment will increase ships' sailing speed, increasing emissions within ECA. Therefore, governments can subsidize high abatement efficiencies of the scrubber to reduce actual ship emissions. • Investigate the choice of technology for a coastal ship with endogenous decision of sailing pattern. • Study the properties of the optimal sailing speed under fuel switching and scrubber installation strategies. • Derive the sufficient and necessary condition for a coastal ship of adopting scrubber installation strategy. • Discuss the incentive of evasion behavior and effect on emissions within ECA.. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study numerically estimates the effect of increased Chinese import penetration using U.S. manufacturing-level panel data from 1997 to 2005. It also decomposes this effect into factor substitution effects and output scale effects. Since import penetration rates may have endogeneity problems, we use China's share of world trade to quantify Chinese import penetration. The results show that increased imports from China increase fuel and electricity consumption: the marginal effect of Chinese import penetration is small but statistically significant, ranging from about 0.05% to 0.08%. Interestingly, the decomposition reveals opposite effects across energy types: the factor substitution effect for fuel is positive, while the factor substitution effect for electricity is negative, despite the impact of Chinese imports. The effects on fuel and electricity are both significantly positive, while the effect on electricity is negative. These results suggest the need for different policy responses across industries to the effects of trade, with implications for the environmental problems caused by energy use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading systems (ETS) have been a widely-adopted policy instrument for global climate mitigation and a key choice in China's pledge for peaking emissions and carbon neutrality. Broader adoption and linkage of ETS programmes require a better understanding of whether, to what extent, and how existing regional programmes address carbon emissions at an aggregate level. Combining a synthetic control method and event studies, we adopt a comprehensive evaluation framework to investigate regional mitigation effects, pathways, and ancillary impacts in three Chinese regions with four independent pilot ETS programmes. The findings show economy-wide responses to pilot announcement even in non-ETS sectors, but enduring mitigation only within ETS sectors. Mitigation was achieved via improvement in energy efficiency and fuel switch, without impairing industrial activities. There were local air-pollution reduction co-benefits but no leakage or spillover. Bounded extrapolation from the pilots suggests 18%–20% reductions can be achieved in non-pilot regions by a national market, which could learn from pilots' experiences to broaden sector coverage and ensure policy consistency and transparency. Regional ETS were able to stabilize emissions with little cost, providing rationale for rapidly developing economies to adopt such systems. Key policy insights Despite being unlinked, regional ETS pilots delivered substantial climate mitigation and local air pollution reduction in China. Policy effects were initially driven by economy-wide mitigation due to policy expectations, followed by ETS-sector mitigation due to carbon pricing. Industries reduced CO2 emissions from energy efficiency improvements and fuel switch. Mitigation was accompanied by little emission leakage or impairment to the economy. Extrapolating mitigation rates in a national market suggests 18%–20% reduction of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The negative health effects of cement plant exposure are well-known in industrial settings, but they are less well-known among the general public who live near plants. The broad objective of the review was to provide a detailed systematic analysis of the global situation of the cement industry, including generation, pollution, impact on the natural ecosystem, technological and process improvements, sustainable models, the latest laws, challenges, needs, and ways forward. As an initial evaluation, a list of critical keywords was compiled, and a search of all accessible databases was conducted (i.e., Scopus, Web of Knowledge, Google Scholar). The manuscripts published in the journal between 2011 and 2021 were included. According to the findings, India is the second largest cement producer after China, with an installed capacity of 537 million tonnes and around 7.1 percent of the world's production, up from 337.32 million tonnes in 2019. NOx, SOx, CO, CO2, H2S, VOCs, dioxins, furans, and particulate matter are all common air pollutants from cement manufacturing. Other sources of dust particles include quarrying, blasting, drilling, trucking, cement plants, fuel production, packaging, path cleaning, and slabs. Other methods of reduction play an important part in decreasing industrial emissions, resulting in lower carbon and more sustainable products. The decision-making trial, in conjunction with the DEMATEL evaluation laboratory and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) technique, will aid in determining the priority of climate alteration and mitigation options. Furthermore, employing sustainable techniques and technology, switching to alternative fuels will save 12% of total CO2 emissions by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has implemented an emission trading system (ETS) to reduce its ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining rapid economic growth. With low carbon prices and infrequent allowance trading, whether China's ETS is an effective approach for climate mitigation has entered the center of the policy and research debate. Utilizing China's regional ETS pilots as a quasinatural experiment, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of ETS on firm carbon emissions and economic outcomes by means of a matched difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The empirical analysis is based on a unique panel dataset of firm tax records in the manufacturing and public utility sectors during 2009 to 2015. We show unambiguous evidence that the regional ETS pilots are effective in reducing firm emissions, leading to a 16.7% reduction in total emissions and a 9.7% reduction in emission intensity. Regulated firms achieve emission abatement through conserving energy consumption and switching to lowcarbon fuels. The economic consequences of the ETS are mixed. On one hand, the ETS has a negative impact on employment and capital input; on the other hand, the ETS incentivizes regulated firms to improve productivity. In the aggregate, the ETS does not exhibit statistically significant effects on output and export. We also find that the ETS displays notable heterogeneity across pilots. Mass-based allowance allocation rules, higher carbon prices, and active allowance trading contribute to more pronounced effects in emission abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed analysis the disparity and reduction potential of clinker emission factors at the provincial level is important for regional reduction policies. Using the surveyed data from 185 new suspension and pre-heater (NSP) process lines and 69 shaft kiln lines, this study firstly analyzed the disparity in emission factors based on production process, production scale, and regional distribution in 2015. We found that the emission factor of the shaft kiln process (898.24 kg/t) is higher than that of the NSP process (858.59 kg/t), and that small-scale production lines have higher emission factors than large-scale lines both for the two process. China's clinker emission factors increase from the eastern to the western regions. Then, we estimated the reduction potential of structural adjustment, raw material substitution, and energy saving and fuel substitution in regional emission factors by 2030. The result shows that emission factors of the surveyed provinces will decrease by 101.41–174.60 kg/t compared to the values in 2015, which mainly contributes by energy saving and fuel substitution (65.98%), and raw material substitution (25.72%). And structural adjustment contributes only a small part reduction for most investigated provinces. The national average emission factor is estimated to be 715.33 kg/t in 2030, which indicates a reduction of 16.65%. These results can provide valuable feedback to government officials on the effectiveness of existing measures and also serve as a reference for future decisions on emission reduction polices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ship emissions and coastal air pollution around China are expected to be alleviated with the gradual implementation of ship domestic emission control area (DECA) policies. However, a comprehensive post-assessment on the policy's effectiveness is still lacking. This study developed a series of high-spatiotemporal ship emission inventories around China from 2016 to 2019 based on an updated Ship Emission Inventory Model (SEIM v2.0) and analyzed the interannual changes in emissions under the influence of both ship activity increases and gradually promoted policies. In this model, NO x , SO2 , PM and HC emissions from ships in China's inland rivers and the 200 Nm (nautical miles) coastal zone were estimated every day with a spatial resolution of 0.05∘×0.05∘ based on a combination of automatic identification system (AIS) data and the Ship Technical Specifications Database (STSD). The route restoration technology and classification of ocean-going vessels (OGVs), coastal vessels (CVs) and river vessels (RVs) has greatly improved our model in the spatial distribution of ship emissions. From 2016 to 2019, SO2 and PM emissions from ships decreased by 29.6 % and 26.4 % , respectively, while ship NO x emissions increased by 13.0 %. Although the DECA 1.0 policy was implemented in 2017, it was not until 2019 when DECA 2.0 came into effect that a significant emission reduction was achieved, e.g., a year-on-year decrease of 33.3 % , regarding SO2. Considering the potential emissions brought by the continuous growth of maritime trade, however, an even larger SO2 emission reduction effect of 39.8 % was achieved in these 4 years compared with the scenario without switching to cleaner fuel. Containers and bulk carriers are still the dominant contributors to ship emissions, and newly built, large ships and ships using clean fuel oil account for an increasingly large proportion of emission structures. A total of 4 years of consecutive daily ship emissions were presented for major ports, which reflects the influence of the step-by-step DECA policy on emissions in a timely manner and may provide useful references for port observation experiments and local policy making. In addition, the spatial distribution shows that a number of ships detoured outside the scope of DECA 2.0 in 2019, perhaps to save costs on more expensive low-sulfur oil, which would increase emissions in farther maritime areas. The multiyear ship emission inventory provides high-quality datasets for air-quality and dispersion modeling, as well as verifications for in situ observation experiments, which may also guide further ship emission control directions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In 2020, cement production in China accounted for 56 % of the global output. • Low-carbon technologies in the cement industry have significant synergies with air pollutants. • Deep learning algorithms provide different perspectives for predicting cement output. • This study provides a basis for reducing pollution and carbon emissions in the cement industry. The cement industry is a major source of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. This study developed a high-resolution emission inventory for China's cement industry and forecasted emissions from 2025 to 2035. The results showed that emissions in 2020 were 251, 709, 142, and 1.35 × 106 Gg for SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and CO 2 , respectively. The optimal model projections for 2035 showed that fuel and clinker substitutions had the best reduction effect on SO 2 and CO 2 , with average reduction rates of –11.42 % and –7.37 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. Pollutant control measures and clinker substitution had the best emission reduction effect on NO x and PM 2.5 , and the average reduction rates were –26.09 % and –4.23 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. These results showed that the substitution of fuel and clinker has important co-benefits for air pollutants in the cement industry. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The epidemiological evidences for the association between cooking fuel exposure and respiratory health were inconsistent, and repeated-measures prospective evaluation of cooking fuel exposure was still lacking. We assessed the longitudinal association of chronic lung disease (CLD) and lung function with cooking fuel types among Chinese adults aged ≥ 40 years. In this prospective, nationwide representative cohort of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, 9004 participants from 28 provinces in China were included. CLD was identified based on self-reported physician diagnosis in 2018. Lung function was assessed by peak expiratory flow (PEF) in 2011, 2013 and 2015. Multivariable logistic and linear mixed-effects repeated-measures models were conducted to measure the associations of CLD and PEF with cooking fuel types. Three-level mixed-effects model was performed as sensitivity analysis. Among the participants, 3508 and 3548 participants used persistent solid and clean cooking fuels throughout the survey, and 1948 participants who used solid cooking fuels at baseline switched to clean cooking fuels. Use of persistent clean cooking fuels (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.73, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.61, 0.88) and switch of solid fuels to clean fuels (aOR = 0.81, 95 % CI: 0.67, 0.98) were associated with lower risk of CLD. The use of clean cooking fuels throughout the survey and switch of solid fuels to clean fuels in 2013 were also significantly associated with higher PEF level. Similar results were observed in stratified analyses and different statistical models. The evidence from CHARLS cohort suggested that reducing solid cooking fuel exposure was associated with lower risk of CLD and better lung function. Given the recent evidence, improving household air quality will reduce the burden of chronic lung diseases. [Display omitted] • This is a prospective, nationwide representative cohort study in China. • Solid cooking fuel use is associated with higher risk of CLD and worse lung function. • Switch of solid fuels to clean fuels benefits respiratory health. • Temporal association between cooking fuel type and respiratory health is plausible. • Prospective evidence about cooking fuel type and respiratory health is strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass energy is the most likely new energy source to replace fossil fuels. This study presents a prediction method for biomass energy supply-demand and changes in supply-demand patterns that connects the past and future. In the study, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are taken as the time base. The FLUS model is used to simulate future land allocation in four basic scenarios: natural development scenario, agricultural development scenario, low-carbon development scenario and industrial development scenario; and townships, towns, and subdistricts are taken as the basic statistical unit. Based on this, we have examined the suitability of future development of biomass energy in rural and urban areas in each scenario, as well as its contribution to the future energy system transformation that substitutes for fossil energy. This method has been applied to the case study of townships, towns, and subdistricts in Harbin City in China. The study results show that: The degrees to which biomass energy potential can substitute for fossil energy in the four scenarios in 2030 reach 4.21%, 5.62%, 5.47%, and 3.82%, respectively. Under agricultural development scenario, the supply-demand balance areas account for 48.94%, meaning this scenario has the largest potential for energy development and transition; low-carbon development scenario sees the highest degree of spatial supply-demand match, and thus enjoys the most advantages in energy transportation. The degrees to which biomass energy potential can substitute for fossil energy under the four scenarios in 2060 reach 2.01%, 6.96%, 5.35%, and 1.26% respectively. Agricultural development scenario still has the largest development potential, with the proportion of supply-demand balance areas jumping to 50.46%; Finally, low supply-high demand mismatch clusters are mainly concentrated in the main urban area and the central areas of townships, towns, and subdistricts. The high supply-low demand mismatch clusters are mainly distributed in the northeast. Under low-carbon development scenario, the low supply-high demand mismatch ratio has been reduced to 0.92%, the lowest supply-demand mismatch among all scenarios. Therefore, low-carbon development scenario enjoys the most spatial match advantages. This study will serve as an assessment method to advance the spatial development of biomass, and provide a geospatial basis for optimizing the layout of future energy development. Compared with previous studies, it has more spatial attributes, better reflects the complexity of biomass energy changes and is more connected with the measurement results and future policy making. In future research, we will combine multiple types of clean energy into the comparison and combined use to form a more comprehensive and specific research framework for new energy conversion. Longer-term macro-planning will go beyond the application boundaries of this research. • The FLUS model is used to simulate future land allocation changes in the four scenarios. • The future population spatial distribution is simulated based on urban spatial simulation results and random forest model. • The future contribution of biomass energy to fossil fuel substitution is estimated. • A biomass energy spatial evaluation framework connecting the past and the future is built. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whilst five technological routes have been proposed in China and implemented for the comprehensive utilisation of crop straw, as fertilizer, fodder, fuel, basic material, and raw material, respectively, there is still uncertainty regarding their efficiency and environmental performance. This study compared the material flows, environmental impacts, and potential improvements of these five routes using full-scale data in the central region of China. All routes achieved efficient utilisation in terms of total solid with transfer coefficients of 67%∼100%, but the fertiliser, fuel and raw material routes required significant amounts of manure and wood chips, respectively, due to the process requirements. On the other hand, the routes producing briquette fuel and board had lower overall loads to the mid-point environmental categories than the others, with product substitutions leading to the highest savings in terms of climate change (−1330 kg CO 2 -eq/t and −311 kg CO 2 -eq/t, respectively). The fertiliser route performed differently in terms of toxic and non-toxic impact categories, with use-on-land of compost contributing −162 kg CO 2 -eq/t savings to climate change impacts by carbon sequestration and fertilizer substitution, and at the same time introducing N, P and trace metal pollution. According to the parameter sensitivity analysis, even slight reductions in material and energy consumption could lead to varying degrees of improvement in carbon reduction. Overall, the findings of this study provide quantitative evidence for the selection of appropriate technologies and the sustainable utilisation of crop straw, by maximizing the benefits of crop straw utilisation while minimizing its negative effects to the environment. [Display omitted] • Material flows and environmental impacts of 5 straw utilisation routes were studied. • All the five routes achieved utilisation ratios of 93∼100% in terms of total solid. • The fuel and raw material routes obtained impact savings to all mid-point categories. • Fuel and board substitutions avoid 1330 and 311 kg CO 2 -eq/t of Climate Change impacts. • Sensitive parameters were identified in consumption and substitution for optimisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extensive use of diesel heavy duty trucks (diesel HDTs) has led to substantial atmospheric pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong (BTHS) region, China. The substitution of hydrogen fuel cell heavy duty trucks (HFC-HDTs) for their diesel counterparts is effective to solve the problems above. Aiming at the BTHS region, a GPERF (GHG emission, Pollutant emission and Economic cost Reduction in Fuel cycle) assessment model was established combining with regional vehicle data to investigate the reductions of GHG emissions, pollutant emissions and economic expenditures by the substitution scheme. Data indicated that population of diesel HDTs and HFC-vehicles in BTHS region both accounted for reaching 25% of total in country. Results showed that the fuel substitution scheme could significantly reduce the GHG and pollutant emissions by vehicles in BTHS region, among which the GHG reduced by 1/3, while the NOx and PM remarkably reduced by around 50%. • The scheme to substitute the diesel heavy duty trucks with HFC counterparts was set up. • A GPERF model was established to access the performance of HFC-HDTs in fuel cycle. • The emission reductions of GHG, NOx and PM in BTHS region turned out the most. • The Tractor truck and Freight truck significantly reduced the GHG and pollutant emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since January 1, 2018, ships berthed at all ports of the three designated emission control areas (ECAs) in China are required to use fuel with sulfur content not exceeding 0.5% (m/m), excluding one hour postarrival and one hour predeparture. To understand changes in SO2 due to this policy, two observation stations were established on Waigaoqiao Dock in the Yangtze River estuary. Three data types were collected from March 2018 to May 2018, namely, wind speed and direction, SO2 concentration, and ships' arrival and departure times. The statistics indicate that the wind direction changed little during the observation period and SO2 concentration was below 5 µg/m3 77.47% of the time. Meanwhile, ships' arrival and departure at the dock had a distinct influence on overall SO2 distribution, including occurrence of concentrations ≥5 µg/m3. The three types of data were divided into six groups and a difference-in-difference model was used for analysis. The result shows that SO2 concentration increases due to the use of high-sulfur fuel and is especially significant when the wind is southwesterly. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between increases in SO2 concentrations over 5 µg/m3 and the number of ships arriving or departing from the port. This study reports the positive impact of fuel switching on air quality and can be used to evaluate adherence to the ECA policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's energy dependents on coal due to the abundance and low cost of coal. Coal provides a secure and stable energy source in China. Over-dependence on coal results in the emission of Hazardous Trace Elements (HTEs) including selenium (Se), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), arsenic (As), etc., from Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPPs), which are the major toxic air pollutants causing widespread concern. For this reason, it is essential to provide a succinct analysis of the main HTEs emission control techniques while concurrently identifying the research prospects framework and specifying future research directions. The study herein reviews various techniques applied in China for the selected HTEs emission control, including the technical, institutional, policy, and regulatory aspects. The specific areas covered in this study include health effects, future coal production and consumption, the current situation of HTEs in Chinese coal, the chemistry of selected HTEs, control techniques, policies, and action plans safeguarding the emission control. The review emphasizes the fact that China must establish and promote efficient and clean ways to utilize coal in order to realize sustainable development. The principal conclusion is that cleaning coal technologies and fuel substitution should be great potential HTEs control technologies in China. Future research should focus on the simultaneous removal of HTEs, PM, SOx, and NOx in the complex flue gas. Image, graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household fuel substitution has been a crucial step for controlling air pollution in China, but the performance evaluation of household fuel substitution policies is overlooked. This study capitalized on the opportunity to use data collected during the household coal-replacement program in North China to evaluate the effect of a mandatory policy on fuel substitution at the micro-level. The results indicate that there is a significant effect of the coal-replacement program on fuel substitution, as we expected. The coal-to-electricity policy is effective in achieving the goal of a clean winter but not a warm winter due to the decline of delivered energy, while the high-quality coal replacement policy results in better performance in delivered energy but no improvement in indoor air quality. It is recommended to prioritize supporting measures on both the supply and demand sides before implementation, along with undertaking differential measures during the implementation phase to better address energy inequality. • China's coal-replacement program improves household energy structure. • Coal-to-electricity policy worsens delivered energy but improves indoor air quality. • Higher-quality coal replacement policy only achieves the goal of warm winter. • Mandatory fuel substitution should consider energy affordability and energy infrastructure. • Differential measures are needed to ameliorate the policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limiting fuel sulfur content (FSC) is a widely adopted approach for reducing ship emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM), particularly in emission control areas (ECAs), but its impact on the emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is still not well understood. In this study, emissions from ships at berth in Guangzhou, southern China, were characterized before and after the implementation of the fuel switch policy (IFSP) with an FSC limit of 0.5 % in the Pearl River Delta ECA (ECA-PRD). After IFSP, the emission factors (EFs) of SO2 and PM 2.5 for the coastal vessels decreased by 78 % and 56 % on average, respectively; however, the EFs of the VOCs were 1807±1746 mg kg -1 , approximately 15 times that of 118±56.1 mg kg -1 before IFSP. This dramatic increase in the emissions of the VOCs might have been largely due to the replacement of high-sulfur residual fuel oil with low-sulfur diesel or heavy oils, which are typically richer in short-chain hydrocarbons. Moreover, reactive alkenes surpassed alkanes to become the dominant group among the VOCs, and low-carbon-number VOCs, such as ethylene, propene and isobutane, became the dominant species after IFSP. As a result of the largely elevated EFs of the reactive alkenes and aromatics after IFSP, the emitted VOCs per kilogram of fuel burned had nearly 29 times greater ozone formation potential (OFP) and approximately 2 times greater secondary organic aerosol formation potential (SOAFP) than those before IFSP. Unlike the coastal vessels, the river vessels in the region used diesel fuels consistently and were not affected by the fuel switch policy, but the EFs of their VOCs were 90 % greater than those of the coastal vessels after IFSP, with approximately 120 % greater fuel-based OFP and 70 %–140 % greater SOAFP. The results from this study suggest that while the fuel switch policy could effectively reduce SO2 and PM emissions, and thus help control PM 2.5 pollution, it will also lead to greater emissions of reactive VOCs, which may threaten ozone pollution control in harbor cities. This change for coastal or ocean-going vessels, in addition to the large amounts of reactive VOCs from the river vessels, raises regulatory concerns for ship emissions of reactive VOCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomass has been promoted as a promising energy resource to mitigate global climate change. To evaluate the contribution of biomass utilization to climate change mitigation under the "Grain for Green" program in Northern Shaanxi, China, a soil carbon dynamic model and a life cycle assessment model were integrated to examine the benefits of using Caragana korshinskii Kom. as an energy crop. We found that the annual dry biomass output is maintained at 0.7 Tg during the simulation period (2020–2097). Due to the compensatory effect of biomass regrowth, the global warming potential of biomass‐derived CO2 emissions is approximately 0.045; therefore, the total annual biogenic CO2 emission is 57,211 ± 6,168 Mg CO2 eq. The total annual life cycle CO2 emissions approach 867,072 Mg CO2 eq yr−1. Under the scenario of no biomass removal, final carbon storage ranges from 15.7 to 19.3 TgC, and the highest carbon sequestration rate is 0.47 TgC yr−1. In comparison with the no biomass removal scenario, the carbon sequestration rate (close to 0 MgC yr−1) in the biomass utilization scenario indicates a carbon loss; however, a portion of the carbon loss (31.39–62.09%) can be offset by carbon emission reductions from the substitution of fossil fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses how China can lead the way when it comes to the usage of fuel cells in automobile technology and how Instead of being a front-runner, Germany will only become a follower. Topics include if China be the driver again, as it was when the batteries were introduced and before that in the field of renewable energies.

• Comprehensive accounting for global CO 2 emissions flow and emission intensities in 49 regions and 200 sectors for 21 years. • Developed a powerful data visualization of CO2 emissions for all 49 regions. • China surpassed US, EU in direct and indirect emissions. • Infrastructure and export contribute to the rapid growth of China's. Indirect CO 2 emissions are gaining increasing interests in addition to direct CO 2 emissions, as policy makers become more aware of the possibilities for structural and technical change, sometimes resulting from policies, to move CO 2 emissions along supply chains. An analysis of the composition of emissions and carbon efficiency of production and their development over time may inform the formulation of demand-side and supply-side solutions for emission reduction over the entire life-cycle. In addition, understanding of emissions embodied in trade (EET) at intermediate and final stages is crucial for allocation of emission responsibilities in a fair manner. Hence, we account for global direct and indirect intermediate and final CO 2 emissions using the global, multiregional input-output model EXIOBASE 3.3. We present results for the flow of embodied carbon through the economies of 49 countries and regions using an interactive visualization and provide a comparative analysis of China, the US, and the EU. It shows that China has undergone rapid, continuous increase in both intermediate and final indirect CO 2 emissions compared to the other two economies from 1995 to 2015, to 26.1 Pg and 11.0 Pg respectively. Emission intensities in China are on average 3.7 times of the US and 2.4 times of the EU in the year 2015, implying the possibility of further reducing emission by efficiency improvement and fuel switching. CO 2 EETs of intermediate production by sectors in the three economies are also reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• China LEAP model used to assess multi-sector decarbonization strategies to 2050. • Energy, CO 2 impacts of accelerated electrification and renewables are assessed. • 2025 CO 2 peak feasible under 4 strategies, peak levels vary from 10.2 to 10.7 GtCO 2. • Faster electrification's CO 2 impact depend on pace of power sector decarbonization. • Demand-side renewable has similar CO 2 reduction impact as power decarbonization. Energy efficiency has played an important role in helping China achieve its domestic and international energy and climate change mitigation targets, but more significant near-term actions to decarbonize are needed to help China and the world meet the Paris Agreement goals. Accelerating electrification and maximizing supply-side and demand-side renewable adoption are two recent strategies being considered in China, but few bottom-up modeling studies have evaluated the potential near-term impacts of these strategies across multiple sectors. To fill this research gap, we use a bottom-up national end-use model that integrates energy supply and demand systems and conduct scenario analysis to evaluate even lower CO 2 emissions strategies and subsequent pathways for China to go beyond cost-effective efficiency and fuel switching. We find that maximizing non-conventional electric and renewable technologies can help China peak its national CO 2 emissions as early as 2025, with significant additional CO 2 emission reductions on the order of 7 Gt CO 2 annually by 2050. Beyond potential CO 2 reductions from power sector decarbonization, significant potential lies in fossil fuel displaced by renewable heat in industry. These results suggest accelerating the utilization of non-conventional electric and renewable technologies present additional CO 2 reduction opportunities for China, but new policies and strategies are needed to change technology choices in the demand sectors. Managing the pace of electrification in tandem with the pace of decarbonization of the power sector will also be crucial to achieving CO 2 reductions from the power sector in a scenario of increased electrification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 1 January 2017, ships berthed at the core ports of three designated "domestic emission control areas" (DECAs) in China should be using fuel with a sulfur content less than or equal to 0.5 %. In order to evaluate the impacts of fuel switching, a measurement campaign (SEISO-Bohai) was conducted from 28 December 2016 to 15 January 2017 at Jingtang Harbor, an area within the seventh busiest port in the world. This campaign included meteorological monitoring, pollutant monitoring, aerosol sampling and fuel sampling. During the campaign, 16 ship plumes were captured by the on-shore measurement site, and 4 plumes indicated the usage of high-S F (S F refers to the sulfur content of marine fuels). The average reduction of the mean ΔNOx/ΔSO2 ratio from high-sulfur plumes (3.26) before 1 January to low-sulfur plumes (12.97) after 1 January shows a direct SO2 emission reduction of 75 %, consistent with the sulfur content reduction (79 %). The average concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm), NOx , SO2 , O3 and CO during campaign were 147.85 µ g m -3 , 146.93, 21.91, 29.68 ppb and 2.21 ppm, respectively, among which NOx reached a maximum hourly concentration of 692.6 ppb, and SO2 reached a maximum hourly concentration of 165.5 ppb. The mean concentrations of carbonaceous and dominant ionic species in particles were 6.52 (EC – elemental carbon), 23.10 (OC – organic carbon), 22.04 (SO42-), 25.95 (NO3-) and 13.55 (NH4+) µ g m -3. Although the carbonaceous species in particles were not significantly affected by fuel switching, the gas and particle pollutants in the ambient air exhibited clear and effective improvements due to the implementation of low-sulfur fuel. Comparison with the prevailing atmospheric conditions and a wind map of SO2 variation concluded a prompt SO2 reduction of 70 % in ambient air after fuel switching. Given the high humidity at the study site, this SO2 reduction will abate the concentration of secondary aerosols and improve the acidity of particulate matter. Based on the enrichment factors of elements in PM 2.5 , vanadium was identified as a marker of residual fuel ship emissions, decreasing significantly by 97.1 % from 309.9 ng m -3 before fuel switching to 9.1 ng m -3 after regulation, which indicated a crucial improvement due to the implementation of low-sulfur fuels. Ship emissions were proven to be significantly influential both directly and indirectly on the port environment and the coastal areas around Bohai Bay, where the population density reaches over 650 people per square kilometer. The results from this study report the positive impact of fuel switching on the air quality in the study region and indicate a new method for identifying the ship fuel type used by vessels in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an effective tool to quantitatively assess the environmental impacts of cement products in the whole life cycle. The establishment of the indigenized and recognized weight coefficients of LCA plays an important role in promoting the application and development of LCA in China's cement industry. An online questionnaire survey was carried out across the cement academia and industry of China, and a total of more than 200 valid samples were collected. Descriptive analysis, Chi-square test, multiple response analysis and Pareto chart were then conducted to analyze the real application situation of carbon footprint accounting, LCA and carbon reduction measures in the cement industry. Based on the scoring by senior experts and feedback from cement academic and industry, the analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight coefficients of LCA. The findings suggested that the most effective measures to reduce carbon emissions in the cement industry included development of low-carbon cementitious materials, fuel substitution, utilization of alternative raw materials for clinker production, application of carbon capture-utilization-storage (CCUS) and so on. For the cement production stage, the clinker calcination was considered to have the largest potential contribution to reducing the overall environmental impacts of cement, accounting for 39.04%. Further calculation indicated the weight coefficients of abiotic depletion potential (ADP), global warming potential (GWP) and human toxicity potential (HTP) were relatively large, which were 0.3005, 0.2663 and 0.2502, respectively. [Display omitted] • A questionnaire survey was conducted across cement academia and industry of China. • The most effective carbon reduction measures were identified based on Pareto chart. • Relevant experts were participated for determining weight coefficients of LCA by AHP. • The study can help to understand the application of LCA in a statistical way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs a review of the technical literature to estimate the potential decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that could be achieved by increasing the application of gas engines in China in three sectors: urban public transport vehicle; shipping; and thermal power plants. China's gas engine development strategies and three types of gas resource are discussed in the study, which indicates that gas engines could decrease GHG emissions by 520 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO) by 2020. This would account for 9.7 % of the government's target for decreasing GHG emissions and is dominated by methane recovery from the use of coal mine gas (CMG) and landfill gas (LFG) for power generation. In the public urban transport vehicle and shipping sectors the low price of natural gas and the increasing demand for the control of harmful emissions could spur the rapid uptake of gas engine vehicles. However, the development of CMG- and LFG-fuelled power plants has been limited by the unwillingness of local enterprises to invest in high-performance gas engine generators and the associated infrastructure. Therefore, further compulsory policies that promote CMG use and LFG recovery should be implemented. Moreover, strict regulations on limiting methane leakage during the production and distribution of gas fuels are urgently needed in China to prevent leakage causing GHG emissions and largely negating the climate benefits of fuel substitution. Strategies for increasing the application of gas engines, promoting gas resources and recovering methane in China are instrumental in global GHG mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change which is induced from energy consumption and CO 2 emissions has got people's attention; hence, many strategies and ways are being adopted to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Energy substitution is crucial to the promotion of energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction. The purpose of this paper is to estimate both inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in China's iron & steel industry during the period 1985–2011. Empirical results show several conclusions for China's iron & steel industry: (1) own-price elasticity of energy is negative, so increase in energy price will reduce energy input; (2) energy and capital, and energy and labor are substitutes, and the substitution in energy/capital is relatively stronger; (3) though coal, oil and electricity are also substitutes, the substitution effect is not so obvious because of pricing distortions in China. The driving forces of energy efficiency change are further discussed and the results show that technology progress is the key factor determining energy intensity. Therefore, market-oriented reforms in terms of energy prices, improvement in energy substitution (including inter-factor and inter-fuel substation) and promotion of energy saving technologies are important means for ensuring future energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction practices in China's iron & steel sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fleet-wide index decomposition and scenario analysis model is developed to identify the influencing factors of CO 2 emission change in China's aviation industry and predict CO 2 emissions in multiple emission reduction scenarios through 2040. It was discovered that all aircraft types experienced operational improvements during 2009 and 2019. The fleet utilization growth resulted in the most of CO 2 emission reduction. However, slowdown in fleet updates existed for most of aircraft types, and the decreased fleet fuel intensity only resulted in CO 2 emission reduction in specific years. The rising air transport demand continues to be the greatest obstacle to reducing emissions. Under the baseline scenario, aviation carbon intensity can only realize the 60–65% target by 2035. With endeavours on traffic demand control and technology, aviation CO 2 emissions will peak at 123 Mt in 2035. The rapid sustainable alternative fuels substitutions will be essential for achieving China's 35–40% target before 2040. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Three ADL trajectories are identified across the four-wave survey. • The use of solid fuel could increase the odds of adverse ADL trajectories. • Solid fuel still has adverse effects in homogenous cognitive or depressive group. • The risk of adverse ADL trajectories increases with the times of solid fuel use. • Interpretation between solid fuel and IADL/BADL is similar to ADL. More studies focus on reporting the effects of ambient air pollution on physical activity while ignoring the hazards of indoor air pollution caused by household solid fuel use. Moreover, the impact of individual cognitive and depressive status on the health effects of air pollution is often overlooked. We examined the association between household solid fuel and activities of daily living (ADL) trajectories, and further examined this association in homogeneous subgroups of cognitive or depressive trajectories. Participants were from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, which conducted four waves of surveys from 2011 to 2018. We collected information on participants' household fuel use, then the ADL, cognitive and depressive performances were assessed in each wave. The latent growth mixture model (LGMM) was used to identify the optimal trajectory class for ADL, cognition, and depression. Then, the multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association between solid fuel use and ADL trajectories in total population, as well as subgroups with different cognitive or depression trajectories. Furthermore, we examined the association between switching household fuel types and ADL trajectories across the four-wave survey. The study sample included 7052 participants. We identified three ADL trajectory classes in total population: "Low-stable", "Moderate-anterior rise", and "Moderate-posterior rise". The multinomial logistic regression results showed that solid fuel use was associated with elevated odds for the adverse ADL trajectories, and this association was still shown in homogeneous subgroups of cognitive or depressive trajectories, while some effects were less significant. In addition, the risk of adverse ADL trajectories generally increases with the times of solid fuel use across the four-wave survey. For middle and older adults in China, household solid fuel use was not conducive to physical activity development, which inspires that a further transformation to cleaner fuels is an important intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) is one of the risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and understanding the modifiable risk factors of EBV activation is crucial in the prevention of NPC. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between solid fuel use and EBV seropositivity in a high-risk area of NPC. Our study was based on the baseline findings from an ongoing population-based prospective cohort in Sihui county in Southern China. We explored the association between current use of solid fuel in cooking and EBV seropositivity, and NPC-related EBV activation, using logistic regression models. Stratification analyses were further conducted to assess potential effect modifiers. We also examined the impact of frequency and duration of solid fuel use, and switch in fuel types, on EBV seropositivity among ever users. Of the 12,579 participants included in our analysis, 4088 (32.5%) were EBV seropositive and 421 (3.3%) were high risk for NPC-related EBV activation. Solid fuel use was associated with a higher risk of EBV seropositivity and NPC-related EBV activation, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.33 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.76) and 1.81 (95%CI: 1.03, 3.18), respectively. Higher risk of EBV seropositivity was observed for those who did not use ventilation apparatus and those who consumed salted food. Among ever users, OR was highest for participants with more than 40 years of solid fuel exposure (1.17, 95%CI: 1.00–1.37) and who have been constantly using solid fuel (1.30, 95%CI: 0.96–1.75). We did not find a statistically significant impact of cooking frequency on EBV seropositivity. The identification of solid fuel as a risk factor for EBV activation is of great value for understanding the etiology of NPC. Our findings also have important public health implications given the fact that a third of the global population still lack access to clean cooking, especially in low resource settings. [Display omitted] • Solid fuel is associated with increased risk of EBV seropositivity and activation. • For ever-users, largest effect in those using solid fuel constantly over 40 years. • High risk of solid fuel among ventilator nonusers and those who consume salted food. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solid fuel use is the main source of indoor air pollution, especially in rural areas of developing countries. Nevertheless, the evidence linking indoor solid fuel use and renal function is very limited. Therefore, we investigated the association between indoor solid fuel use and renal function among middle-aged and older adults in rural China. Cystatin C (CysC) concentration of each participant was used to calculate the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We used the baseline data to investigate the associations between solid fuel use for cooking and heating and eGFR through a linear-mixed effects model. Then, we applied the generalized linear-mixed effects model with binary distribution to examine the relationship between renal function decline and cooking fuel switching from 2011 to 2015. A total of 4959 participants were included at baseline, and 3536 participants were included in the follow-up analysis. Compared to participants who used clean fuel for both cooking and heating, the eGFR was significantly lower among participants who cooked with solid fuel and heated with clean fuel (β: -2.81; 95% CI: -5.53, -0.09). In the follow-up analysis, the risks of renal function decline for participants using solid fuel for cooking were significantly higher in males (OR: 2.74; 95% CI: 1.68, 4.49), smokers (OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 2.82, 11.55), and drinkers (OR: 7.11; 95% CI: 3.15, 16.02) compared to females, non-smokers, and non-drinkers. Moreover, 45–65 years aged participants (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.89) and non-drinkers (OR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.92) who switched from solid to clean cooking fuel had a lower risk of renal function decline. In conclusion, our findings show that household solid fuel use is likely to be an important risk factor for renal function decline in rural China. And switching to cleaner fuel may provide significant public health benefits. • Solid fuel use may be related to renal function decline. • The conversion of solid fuel to clean fuel can reduce the risk of kidney damage. • Solid fuel use for smokers, drinkers, and males have a higher risk of kidney damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The AGA Indices method and weaver indices method are typical overseas interchangeability discriminant methods. Under the background of interchangeability of multi-source natural gas in Shanghai, the pipeline gas in lab is used as reference gas, the AGA Indices (IL, IF, IY) and Weaver Indices (JH, JA, JF, JL, JI, JY) of all kinds of substitute gas were calculated. The interchangeability of reference gas and substitute gas was analyzed theoretically and experimentally. Finally, compared tests with the calculation results, analyzed and discussed the domestic applicability of two indices methods. The tests proved AGA Indices method could well predicted interchangeability but did not give the emission index of CO, while Weaver Indices could well predict flame-out, backfire and heat load change but did not accurately reflect yellow flame and CO emission. Therefore, in order to reflect completely the results of interchangeability by pure index methods, it is necessary to analyze the interchangeability combining domestic reality with two indices methods. Nowadays experiment is still an essential way for identifying interchangeability. And gas interchangeability should not be confused with gas classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The multi sources gas supply situation will exist for a long time in China''s city gas supply. The natural gas engine interchangeability problem and its possible impact on engine operation were analyzed, the index and the method of determining interchangeability for gas engine were introduced, three response measures for natural gas interchangeability in the terms of the domestic and international standards, engine manufacturers and end users were given in this paper: the relevant industry standards should be detailed, to increase the requirement of methane number (MN) range, the interchangeability between different gas source and the possible impact of end user should put into evaluation at the beginning of gas procurement; the natural gas component should be strictly defined in the engine design and manufacturing phase of engine manufacturers, and ensure that the engine and control system design meets changes of the gas composition; mixing inert gas such as N2 and CO2 in the end user side to increase the gas MN, thereby increasing its antiknock tendency, furthermore, the measures such as the installation of closed-loop control engine with oxygen sensor in the exhaust and adjust air-fuel ratio accurately and adjusting engine ignition timing, to adapt the changes in gas composition to ensure that the engine working conditions are not significantly affected, to meet the requirements of natural gas interchangeability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Biodiesel from non-grain feedstock has been considered as one of the proper substitutes for fossil fuels associated with a series of activities emerging in China in order to meet the resource shortage and develop the energy crops. This paper presents an ecological accounting framework based on embodied energy, emergy, and CO2 emission for the whole production chain of biodiesel made from Jatropha curcas L. (JCL) oil. The energy and materials invested in and CO2 emission from the whole process, including cropping, transportation, extraction, and production, are accounted and calculated. Also, EmCO2, the ratio of real CO2 released to the emergy-based sustainability indicator per joule biodiesel, is proposed in this paper to present a new goal function for low-carbon system optimization. Finally, the results are compared with those of the bioethanol (wheat) production in Henan Province, China, and bioethanol (corn) production in Italy in view of the indices of embodied energy, emergy and CO2 emissions and EmCO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The majority of rural residents in China are dependent on traditional fuels, but the quality and quantity of existing data on the process of fuel switching in rural China are insufficient to have a clear picture of current conditions and a well-grounded outlook for the future. Based on an analysis of a rural household survey data in Hubei province in 2004, we explore patterns of residential fuel use within the conceptual framework of fuel switching using statistical approaches. Cross-sectional data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall, and residential fuel use varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities in availability of different energy sources. Regression analysis using logit and tobit models suggest that income, fuel prices, demographic characteristics, and topography have significant effects on fuel switching. Moreover, while switching is occurring, the commercial energy source which appears to be the principal substitute for biomass in rural households is coal. Given that burning coal in the household is a major contributor to general air pollution in China and to negative health outcomes due to indoor air pollution, further transition to modern and clean fuels such as biogas, LPG, natural gas and electricity is important. Further income growth induced by New Countryside Construction and improvement of modern and clean energy accessibility will play a critical role in the switching process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Solid fuels for domestic purposes pose a threat to the elderly's health in global rural areas, while clean fuel switching may improve the situation. Using longitudinal data from adults aged 65 and over from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this study adopts panel data models to investigate the impact of household fuel switching from solid fuels to non-solid fuels on the elderly's health from multiple dimensions. The results are as follows: (1) fuel switching improves the elderly's self-rated health status with a marginal effect of 0.082 but has no significant impact on the elderly's abilities or independence in daily activities. The elderly switching fuels has a self-rated health score of 0.082 higher than those using solid fuels; (2) fuel switching enhances the educated elderly's self-rated health with a marginal effect of 0.121 but has no significant impact on the uneducated elderly; (3) fuel switching improves the elderly female's self-rated health with a marginal effect of 0.107 but does not affect the elderly male. Overall, fuel switching contributes to the elderly's self-rated health with an impact varying from group to group but has no impact on their abilities or independence in daily activities. Finally, this study gives some policy implications. • Solid fuels pose a severe threat to the Chinese elderly's health. • Fuel switching improves the elderly's self-rated health. • Fuel switching has no significant impact on the elderly's abilities or independence. • The health impact of fuel switching varies by gender and education. • Integrated energy and health policies contribute to reducing adverse health impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The switch of coal to gas in power generation enterprises is of great significance for tackling air pollution and mitigating climate change. Under China's emissions trading system, power generation enterprises have incentives to switch to low-carbon clean power, and the cost-benefit of switching is the basis of their decision-making. To this end, this paper studied the impact of changes in carbon and fuel prices on switching prices. The results show that: (1) For per yuan increase in the amount of natural gas, coal, and carbon, the switching price increased 4.768, decreased 5.845 and decreased 0.9994 yuan, respectively. (2) The carbon price is relatively low, and the impact of it on switching price is small. (3) The fluctuation in the carbon price, coal price and the natural gas price has a hysteresis effect on switching price. [Display omitted] • This study assesses the coal-to-gas switch possibility in Guangdong Province. • A new mode of operation of coal-to-gas switch is published. • For per yuan increase of carbon price, the switching price decreased 0.99 yuan. • The impact of carbon price fluctuations on switching price has a lag effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rail transportation plays a very important role in China's economic development. China's train system has experienced the evolution of steam locomotives, diesel locomotives, and electric locomotives, which correspond to the consumption of coal, diesel and electricity respectively. Environmental protection has put forward requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction in rail transportation. The electrification of rails is a general trend of social development. In this process, the fuel consumption of rail transportation is experiencing the substitution of coal and oil by electricity. Therefore, a study on inter-fuel substitution in China's rail sector is of great significance to the development of China's rail transport system, energy conservation and emission reduction in rail transportation. We re-derived and revised the formula for inter-fuel substitution elasticity, and made a more reasonable and scientific selection of the ridge regression parameters in the econometric model. The empirical results indicate that in China's rail sector, the substitution elasticities between coal and oil, coal and electricity, and oil and electricity are about 2.2084, 1.0628, and 0.9202, respectively. We also conducted an inter-fuel substitution scenario analysis and made relevant policy recommendations. • We revised the substitution formula and estimated the fuel substitution effect. • We combined the ridge trace and numerical methods to select the ridge parameter. • We conducted an inter-fuel substitution scenario analysis. • We estimated the emission reduction for China's rail transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a rigorous and advanced data-driven model to describe, analyze, and forecast the global crude oil demand. The study deploys a hybrid approach of artificial intelligence techniques, namely, the genetic-algorithm, neural-network, and data-mining approach for time-series models (GANNATS). The GANNATS was developed and applied to two country cases, including one for a high oil producer (Saudi Arabia) and one for a high oil consumer (China), to develop crude oil demand forecasts. The input variables of the neural network models include gross domestic product (GDP), the country's population, oil prices, gas prices, and transport data, in addition to transformed variables and functional links. The artificial intelligence predictive models of oil demand were successfully developed, trained, validated, and tested using historical oil-market data, yielding excellent oil demand predictions. The performance of the intelligent models for Saudi Arabia and China was examined using rigorous indicators of generalizability, predictability, and accuracy. The GANNATS forecasting models show that the crude oil demand for both Saudi Arabia and China will continue to increase over the forecast period but with a mildly declining growth, particularly for Saudi Arabia. This decreasing growth in the demand for oil can be attributed to increased energy efficiency, fuel switching, conversion of power plants from crude oil to gas-based plants, and increased utilization of renewable energy, such as solar and wind for electricity generation and water desalination. In this study, the feature engineering of variables selection techniques has been applied to identify and understand significant factors that impact and drive the crude oil demand. The proposed GANNATS methodology optimizes and upgrades the conventional process of developing oil demand forecasts. It also improves and enhances the predictability and accuracy of the current oil demand forecasting models. • Developed GANNATS models for modeling, analyzing and predicting the crude oil demand. • Identified and discussed the influential factors driving the crude oil demand of Saudi Arabia and China. • Predicted crude oil demand for Saudi Arabia and China for the short-term outlook. • Provided a guide for AI/ML generalization attributes. • Provided golden rules and tips for modeling GANNATS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A National Energy Technology model for cement industry (NET-Cement) is established. • Optimal transition pathway towards a green cement industry in China is proposed. • The comprehensive impacts of four types of green transition measures are evaluated. • Cement industry in China is able to reach 30.69% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050. • The average CO 2 emission abatement cost will be 183.12 CNY/tCO 2. • Improving energy efficiency has the largest energy savings among all green measures. Cement industry is regarded as one of the most energy-intensive sectors, which generates large amount of greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions. Therefore, the realization of green development of cement industry is of great significance. A bottom-up National Energy Technology-Cement (NET-Cement) Model is developed for optimizing the green transition pathway of the cement industry. Based on China's empirical background, this study comprehensively evaluates the potentials of energy saving and emission reduction of four types of green transition measures, including improving energy efficiency, switching to alternative fuels, using alternative raw materials and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) on the basis of meeting the demand of future cement products. The results show that simultaneous implementation of the above four measures would reach approximately 30.69% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050 compared with the situation following the existing policies. The corresponding average emission abatement cost will be 183.12 CNY/tCO 2. Regarding the energy saving and emission reduction effect of a single measure, improving energy efficiency (AT scenario) contributes the most energy saving (9 Mtce) and has a 3.04% emission reduction rate in 2050. Using calcium carbide as alternative raw materials has the lowest average abatement cost being 63.03 CNY/tCO 2 in 2050. Pollutants such as SO 2 , NO X , PM2.5, smoke dust and fine dust can be largely reduced as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the leading ammonia producer and relies on a coal-based technology which makes the already energy intensive Haber-Bosch process, one of the most emission intensive in the world. This work is the first to propose an agent-based modelling framework to model the Chinese ammonia industry as it characterises the specific goals and barriers towards fuel switching and carbon capture and storage adoption for small, medium, and large enterprises either private or state-owned. The results show that facilitated access to capital makes investments in sustainable technologies more attractive for all firms, especially for small and medium enterprises. Without policy instruments such as carbon price, the decrease in emissions in the long-term is due to investments in natural gas-based technologies, as they typically have lower capital and operating costs, and also lower electricity consumption than coal-based production. Conversely, with policy instruments in place, a strong decrease in emissions occurs between 2060 and 2080 due to investors choosing natural gas and biomethane-based technologies, with carbon capture and storage. In the long term, natural gas and biomethane could compete, with the outcome depending on infrastructure, supply chain availability and land use constraints. Image 1 • An agent-based model is proposed to characterise investment in industry. • A carbon price is effective to promote sector decarbonisation. • Fuel switching and CCS may be pivotal to reduce emissions. • 28% of ammonia market in China may struggle to decarbonise even with a carbon price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's energy intensive industries have posed great challenges in achieving carbon emissions reduction goals. We calculate the influence of carbon tax levying on the CO 2 emissions as well as ecological efficiency of China's energy intensive industries utilizing inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution channel. To allow for the slow adjustment process of the enterprises of different fuels and factors inputs, a dynamic model and three-stage estimation procedure are used. Based on the substitution among fuels and factors, the results indicate that carbon tax levying will make the enterprises transform from consuming coal (with a higher carbon efficient) to lower oil/gas and electricity, and from inputting energy to inputting more labor and capital. Therefore, carbon tax is conductive for the CO 2 reduction in China's energy intensive industries. With regard to the two kinds of ecological efficiency, carbon tax plays a negative role in improving them. Thus, carbon tax levy is suggested to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions in China's energy intensive industries. The future assessment tasks should include the ecological efficiency in to make the assessment more reasonable. • We measure the inter-factor and inter-fuel elasticity of substitution. • United ecological efficiency and ecological energy efficiency are calculated. • The influences of carbon tax on the two kinds of efficiencies are measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]