Carbon and air pollutant emissions forecast of China's cement industry from 2021 to 2035.

• In 2020, cement production in China accounted for 56 % of the global output. • Low-carbon technologies in the cement industry have significant synergies with air pollutants. • Deep learning algorithms provide different perspectives for predicting cement output. • This study provides a basis for reducing pollution and carbon emissions in the cement industry. The cement industry is a major source of carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. This study developed a high-resolution emission inventory for China's cement industry and forecasted emissions from 2025 to 2035. The results showed that emissions in 2020 were 251, 709, 142, and 1.35 × 10⁶ Gg for SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and CO 2 , respectively. The optimal model projections for 2035 showed that fuel and clinker substitutions had the best reduction effect on SO 2 and CO 2 , with average reduction rates of –11.42 % and –7.37 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. Pollutant control measures and clinker substitution had the best emission reduction effect on NO x and PM 2.5 , and the average reduction rates were –26.09 % and –4.23 %, respectively, compared to the 2035 frozen scenario. These results showed that the substitution of fuel and clinker has important co-benefits for air pollutants in the cement industry. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]