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We use United Kingdom Earth System Model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 to analyze the Ross Gyre (RG) dynamics during the historical 1850–2014 period and under two contrasting future climate‐change scenarios. The modeled RG is relatively stable, with an extent and strength that agree with observations. The projections exhibit an eastward gyre expansion into the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas that starts during the 2040s. The associated cyclonic ocean circulation enhances the onshore transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water into the inner regional shelf, a regime change that increases the local subsurface shelf temperatures by up to 1.2°C and is independent of future forcing scenario. The RG expansion is generated by a regional ocean surface stress curl intensification associated with anthropogenic sea ice loss. If realised in reality, such a warming would strongly influence the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Plain Language Summary: We use a climate model to analyze ocean changes around West Antarctica. Our results reveal a human‐driven ocean warming that increases the continental shelf temperature in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas by more than 1°C in only ∼30 years. This rapid warming is caused by the expansion of the Ross Gyre (RG), a large oceanic circulation in the region. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass, causing sea‐level rise, with the most rapid ice losses occurring in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas. Our results suggest that an expansion of the RG could provide a mechanism whereby melt rates increase far beyond the current range. This could have an important influence on the sea‐level rise caused by this region, with global impacts. Key Points: The UK Earth System Model produces a fairly realistic depiction of ocean conditions in West AntarcticaFuture projections suggest a rapid warming of the Amundsen Sea induced by a Ross Gyre (RG) expansion that is independent of forcing scenarioThe RG expansion is primarily caused by a surface stress curl intensification induced by anthropogenic trends in Antarctic sea ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the key drivers of population connectivity in the marine environment is essential for the effective management of natural resources. Although several different approaches to evaluating connectivity have been used, they are rarely integrated quantitatively. Here, we use a 'seascape genetics' approach, by combining oceanographic modelling and microsatellite analyses, to understand the dominant influences on the population genetic structure of two Antarctic fishes with contrasting life histories, Champsocephalus gunnari and Notothenia rossii. The close accord between the model projections and empirical genetic structure demonstrated that passive dispersal during the planktonic early life stages is the dominant influence on patterns and extent of genetic structuring in both species. The shorter planktonic phase of C. gunnari restricts direct transport of larvae between distant populations, leading to stronger regional differentiation. By contrast, geographic distance did not affect differentiation in N. rossii, whose longer larval period promotes long-distance dispersal. Interannual variability in oceanographic flows strongly influenced the projected genetic structure, suggesting that shifts in circulation patterns due to climate change are likely to impact future genetic connectivity and opportunities for local adaptation, resilience and recovery from perturbations. Further development of realistic climate models is required to fully assess such potential impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]