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[1] We investigate the uncertainties in the carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratio and inferred surface flux associated with boundary layer processes and advection by using mixed-layer theory. By extending the previous analysis presented by Pino et al. (2012), new analytical expressions are derived to quantify the uncertainty of CO2 mixing ratio or surface flux associated to, among others, boundary layer depth, early morning CO2 mixing ratio at the mixed layer or at the free atmosphere; or CO2 advection. We identify and calculate two sorts of uncertainties associated to the CO2 mixing ratio and surface flux: instantaneous and past (due to advection). The numerical experiments are guided and constrained by meteorological and CO2 observations taken at the Cabauw 213 m tower. We select 2 days (25 September 2003 and 12 March 2004) with a well-defined convective boundary layer but different CO2 advection contributions. Our sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty of the CO2 advection in the boundary layer due to instantaneous uncertainties represents at 1600 LT on 12 March 2004 a contribution of 2¿ppm and 0.072 mg m-2s-1 in the uncertainty of the CO2 mixing ratio and inferred surface flux, respectively. Taking into account that the monthly averaged minimum CO2 surface flux for March 2004 was -0.55 mg m-2s-1, the error on the surface flux is on the order of 10%. By including CO2 advection in the analytical expressions, we demonstrate that the uncertainty of the CO2 mixing ratio or surface flux also depends on the past uncertainties of the boundary layer depth.

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of total carbon is important for understanding the impact of regional land use change on the global carbon cycle. We studied spatial total carbon variability using transect sampling in an Imperata grassland area. Spatial variability was modeled following an isotropic stationary process with spherical and exponential variogram functions. Range and sill were estimated at 100 m and 82.29 ton2 ha-2, respectively. For nugget, sill ratio was estimated at 24%, implying a rather strong spatial dependence. In a subsequent total carbon stock inventory based on the sampling design mentioned above, we applied three types of estimators, namely, “naive average procedure,” “spatial average procedure,” and “spatial optimal procedure.” Estimation of total carbon stock (in ton ha-1) following naive average procedure (which erroneously ignores the spatial dependence) resulted in a considerably too narrow 95% confidence interval of 37.52 to 39.75, whereas the outcomes using spatial average procedure and spatial optimal procedure were 36.54 to 40.73 and 37.14 to 40.78), respectively, using the spherical model, and 36.63 to 40.64 and 37.07 to 40.64, respectively, using the exponential model. Our research indicated that, when total carbon stock estimation is the main goal, random sampling is optimal, whereas wide design sampling (i.e., shortest distance between sampling locations not less than the range) can be preferred in some cases

We present an estimate of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in Europe for the years 2001-2007. It is derived with a data assimilation that uses a large set of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction observations (∼70 000) to guide relatively simple descriptions of terrestrial and oceanic net exchange, while fossil fuel and fire emissions are prescribed. Weekly terrestrial sources and sinks are optimized (i.e., a flux inversion) for a set of 18 large ecosystems across Europe in which prescribed climate, weather, and surface characteristics introduce finer scale gradients. We find that the terrestrial biosphere in Europe absorbed a net average of -165 Tg C yr-1 over the period considered. This uptake is predominantly in non-EU countries, and is found in the northern coniferous (-94 Tg C yr-1) and mixed forests (-30 Tg C yr-1) as well as the forest/field complexes of eastern Europe (-85 Tg C yr-1). An optimistic uncertainty estimate derived using three biosphere models suggests the uptake to be in a range of -122 to -258 Tg C yr-1, while a more conservative estimate derived from the a-posteriori covariance estimates is -165±437 Tg C yr-1. Note, however, that uncertainties are hard to estimate given the nature of the system and are likely to be significantly larger than this. Interannual variability in NEE includes a reduction in uptake due to the 2003 drought followed by 3 years of more than average uptake. The largest anomaly of NEE occurred in 2005 concurrent with increased seasonal cycles of observed CO2. We speculate these changes to result from the strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in 2005 that lead to favorable summer growth conditions, and altered horizontal and vertical mixing in the atmosphere. All our results are available through http://www.carbontracker.eu. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Surface emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion (¿FFCO2) are estimated for the Netherlands for the period of May 2006–June 2009 using ambient atmospheric observations taken at station Lutjewad in the Netherlands (6°21'E, 53°24'N, 1 m. a.s.l.). Measurements of ¿14C on 2-weekly integrations of CO2 and CO mixing ratios are combined to construct a quasi-continuous proxy record (FFCO2*) from which surface fluxes (¿FFCO2*) are determined using the 222Rn flux method. The trajectories of the air masses are analysed to determine emissions, which are representative for the Netherlands. We compared our observationally based estimates to the national inventories and we evaluated our methodology using the regional atmospheric transport model REMO. Based on 3 yr of observations we find annual mean ¿FFCO2* emissions of (4.7 ± 1.6) kt km-2 a-1 which is in very good agreement with the Dutch inventories of (4.5 ± 0.2) kt km-2 a-1 (average of 2006–2008).

This paper describes a numerical interpretation of the April 2007, CarboEurope Regional Experiment Strategy (CERES) campaign, devoted to the study of the CO2 cycle at the regional scale. Four consecutive clear sky days with intensive observations of CO2 concentration, fluxes at the surface and in the boundary layer have been simulated with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, coupled to ISBA-A-gs land surface model. The main result of this paper is to show how aircraft observations of CO2 concentration have been used to identify surface model errors and to calibrate the CO2 driving component of the surface model. In fact, the comparisons between modelled and observed CO2 concentrations within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) allow to calibrate and correct not only the parameterization of respired CO2 fluxes by the ecosystem but also the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the dominating land cover. After this calibration, the paper describes systematic comparisons of the model outputs with numerous data collected during the CERES campaign, in April 2007. For instance, the originality of this paper is the spatial integration of the comparisons. In fact, the aircraft observations of CO2 concentration and fluxes and energy fluxes are used for the model validation from the local to the regional scale. As a conclusion, the CO2 budgeting approach from the mesoscale model shows that the winter croplands are assimilating more CO2 than the pine forest, at this stage of the year and this case study.

Accounting for agricultural activities such as P fertilization in regional models of heavy metal accumulation provides suitable sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient surpluses and metal inputs in agricultural soils. Using the balance model PROTERRA-S, we assessed the phosphorus ( P), cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) flux balances in agricultural soils of a rural region in Switzerland for different farm types and crop types. The P requirements of crops on arable farms were mainly supplied by commercial fertilizers and sewage sludge, while on animal husbandry farms P fertilizer demands were met by animal manure alone. Metal accumulation in soil was very different between the balance units. Estimated net Cd fluxes ranged between 1.0 and 2.3 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for arable farm types, 0.6 and 2.0 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for dairy and mixed farm types, and 9.1 and 17.8 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for animal husbandry farm types. Largest net Zn fluxes of 17.9 - 39.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) were estimated for animal husbandry farms, whereas for arable farm types net Zn fluxes of 101 - 260 g ha(-1) yr(-1) and for dairy and mixed farm types of 349 - 3360 g ha(-1) yr(-1) were found. The results indicate that P management is a primary factor determining the variation of these net Cd and net Zn fluxes. The latter were highly sensitive to the Zn/P concentration ratio in animal manure, atmospheric deposition and crop concentrations. Variation of net Cd fluxes resulted mainly from uncertainty in crop concentrations, atmospheric deposition, leaching parameters and uncertainty in Cd/P concentration ratio of commercial fertilizers. In addition, element balances were sensitive to empirical assumptions on fertilization strategy of farmers, such as the partitioning of manure between balance units.

[1] We investigate the uncertainties in the carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratio and inferred surface flux associated with boundary layer processes and advection by using mixed-layer theory. By extending the previous analysis presented by Pino et al. (2012), new analytical expressions are derived to quantify the uncertainty of CO2 mixing ratio or surface flux associated to, among others, boundary layer depth, early morning CO2 mixing ratio at the mixed layer or at the free atmosphere; or CO2 advection. We identify and calculate two sorts of uncertainties associated to the CO2 mixing ratio and surface flux: instantaneous and past (due to advection). The numerical experiments are guided and constrained by meteorological and CO2 observations taken at the Cabauw 213 m tower. We select 2 days (25 September 2003 and 12 March 2004) with a well-defined convective boundary layer but different CO2 advection contributions. Our sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty of the CO2 advection in the boundary layer due to instantaneous uncertainties represents at 1600 LT on 12 March 2004 a contribution of 2¿ppm and 0.072 mg m-2s-1 in the uncertainty of the CO2 mixing ratio and inferred surface flux, respectively. Taking into account that the monthly averaged minimum CO2 surface flux for March 2004 was -0.55 mg m-2s-1, the error on the surface flux is on the order of 10%. By including CO2 advection in the analytical expressions, we demonstrate that the uncertainty of the CO2 mixing ratio or surface flux also depends on the past uncertainties of the boundary layer depth.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations (The Netherlands), with a special focus on the representation of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In ad-dition, area averaged sensible heat flux observations by scintillometry are utilized which enables evaluation of grid scale model fluxes and flux observations at the same horizontal scale. Also, novel ABL height observations by ceilometry and of the near surface longwave radiation divergence are utilized. It appears that WRF in its basic set-up shows satisfactory model results for nearly all atmospheric near surface variables compared to field observations, while RAMS needed refining of its ABL scheme. An important inconsistency was found regarding the ABL daytime heat budget: Both model versions are only able to correctly forecast the ABL thermodynamic structure when the modeled surface sensible heat flux is much larger than both the eddy-covariance and scintillometer observations indicate. In order to clarify this discrepancy, model results for each term of the heat budget equation is evaluated against field observations. Sensitivity studies and evaluation of radiative tendencies and entrainment reveal that possible errors in these variables cannot explain the overestimation of the sensible heat flux within the current model infrastructure.

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the The Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Regional Atmospheric Mesoscale Model System (RAMS) are frequently used for (regional) weather, climate and air quality studies. This paper covers an evaluation of these models for a windy and calm episode against Cabauw tower observations (The Netherlands), with a special focus on the representation of the physical processes in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). In ad-dition, area averaged sensible heat flux observations by scintillometry are utilized which enables evaluation of grid scale model fluxes and flux observations at the same horizontal scale. Also, novel ABL height observations by ceilometry and of the near surface longwave radiation divergence are utilized. It appears that WRF in its basic set-up shows satisfactory model results for nearly all atmospheric near surface variables compared to field observations, while RAMS needed refining of its ABL scheme. An important inconsistency was found regarding the ABL daytime heat budget: Both model versions are only able to correctly forecast the ABL thermodynamic structure when the modeled surface sensible heat flux is much larger than both the eddy-covariance and scintillometer observations indicate. In order to clarify this discrepancy, model results for each term of the heat budget equation is evaluated against field observations. Sensitivity studies and evaluation of radiative tendencies and entrainment reveal that possible errors in these variables cannot explain the overestimation of the sensible heat flux within the current model infrastructure.

Surface emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion (¿FFCO2) are estimated for the Netherlands for the period of May 2006–June 2009 using ambient atmospheric observations taken at station Lutjewad in the Netherlands (6°21'E, 53°24'N, 1 m. a.s.l.). Measurements of ¿14C on 2-weekly integrations of CO2 and CO mixing ratios are combined to construct a quasi-continuous proxy record (FFCO2*) from which surface fluxes (¿FFCO2*) are determined using the 222Rn flux method. The trajectories of the air masses are analysed to determine emissions, which are representative for the Netherlands. We compared our observationally based estimates to the national inventories and we evaluated our methodology using the regional atmospheric transport model REMO. Based on 3 yr of observations we find annual mean ¿FFCO2* emissions of (4.7 ± 1.6) kt km-2 a-1 which is in very good agreement with the Dutch inventories of (4.5 ± 0.2) kt km-2 a-1 (average of 2006–2008).

This paper describes a numerical interpretation of the April 2007, CarboEurope Regional Experiment Strategy (CERES) campaign, devoted to the study of the CO2 cycle at the regional scale. Four consecutive clear sky days with intensive observations of CO2 concentration, fluxes at the surface and in the boundary layer have been simulated with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, coupled to ISBA-A-gs land surface model. The main result of this paper is to show how aircraft observations of CO2 concentration have been used to identify surface model errors and to calibrate the CO2 driving component of the surface model. In fact, the comparisons between modelled and observed CO2 concentrations within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) allow to calibrate and correct not only the parameterization of respired CO2 fluxes by the ecosystem but also the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the dominating land cover. After this calibration, the paper describes systematic comparisons of the model outputs with numerous data collected during the CERES campaign, in April 2007. For instance, the originality of this paper is the spatial integration of the comparisons. In fact, the aircraft observations of CO2 concentration and fluxes and energy fluxes are used for the model validation from the local This paper describes a numerical interpretation of the April 2007, CarboEurope Regional Experiment Strategy (CERES) campaign, devoted to the study of the CO2 cycle at the regional scale. Four consecutive clear sky days with intensive observations of CO2 concentration, fluxes at the surface and in the boundary layer have been simulated with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, coupled to ISBA-A-gs land surface model. The main result of this paper is to show how aircraft observations of CO2 concentration have been used to identify surface model errors and to calibrate the CO2 driving component of the surface model. In fact, the comparisons between modelled and observed CO2 concentrations within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) allow to calibrate and correct not only the parameterization of respired CO2 fluxes by the ecosystem but also the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the dominating land cover. After this calibration, the paper describes systematic comparisons of the model outputs with numerous data collected during the CERES campaign, in April 2007. For instance, the originality of this paper is the spatial integration of the comparisons. In fact, the aircraft observations of CO2 concentration and fluxes and energy fluxes are used for the model validation from the local This paper describes a numerical interpretation of the April 2007, CarboEurope Regional Experiment Strategy (CERES) campaign, devoted to the study of the CO2 cycle at the regional scale. Four consecutive clear sky days with intensive observations of CO2 concentration, fluxes at the surface and in the boundary layer have been simulated with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, coupled to ISBA-A-gs land surface model. The main result of this paper is to show how aircraft observations of CO2 concentration have been used to identify surface model errors and to calibrate the CO2 driving component of the surface model. In fact, the comparisons between modelled and observed CO2 concentrations within the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) allow to calibrate and correct not only the parameterization of respired CO2 fluxes by the ecosystem but also the Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the dominating land cover. After this calibration, the paper describes systematic comparisons of the model outputs with numerous data collected during the CERES campaign, in April 2007. For instance, the originality of this paper is the spatial integration of the comparisons. In fact, the aircraft observations of CO2 concentration and fluxes and energy fluxes are used for the model validation from the local to the regional scale. As a conclusion, the CO2 budgeting approach from the mesoscale model shows that the winter croplands are assimilating more CO2 than the pine forest, at this stage of the year and this case study.

Accounting for agricultural activities such as P fertilization in regional models of heavy metal accumulation provides suitable sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient surpluses and metal inputs in agricultural soils. Using the balance model PROTERRA-S, we assessed the phosphorus ( P), cadmium (Cd) and zinc (Zn) flux balances in agricultural soils of a rural region in Switzerland for different farm types and crop types. The P requirements of crops on arable farms were mainly supplied by commercial fertilizers and sewage sludge, while on animal husbandry farms P fertilizer demands were met by animal manure alone. Metal accumulation in soil was very different between the balance units. Estimated net Cd fluxes ranged between 1.0 and 2.3 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for arable farm types, 0.6 and 2.0 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for dairy and mixed farm types, and 9.1 and 17.8 g ha(-1) yr(-1) for animal husbandry farm types. Largest net Zn fluxes of 17.9 - 39.8 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) were estimated for animal husbandry farms, whereas for arable farm types net Zn fluxes of 101 - 260 g ha(-1) yr(-1) and for dairy and mixed farm types of 349 - 3360 g ha(-1) yr(-1) were found. The results indicate that P management is a primary factor determining the variation of these net Cd and net Zn fluxes. The latter were highly sensitive to the Zn/P concentration ratio in animal manure, atmospheric deposition and crop concentrations. Variation of net Cd fluxes resulted mainly from uncertainty in crop concentrations, atmospheric deposition, leaching parameters and uncertainty in Cd/P concentration ratio of commercial fertilizers. In addition, element balances were sensitive to empirical assumptions on fertilization strategy of farmers, such as the partitioning of manure between balance units.