Khan F, Rahman A, Tritschler T, Carrier M, Kearon C, Weitz JI, Schulman S, Couturaud F, Becattini C, Agnelli G, Brighton TA, Lensing AWA, Pinede L, Parpia S, Geersing GJ, Takada T, Bradbury CA, Andreozzi GM, Palareti G, Prandoni P, Buller HR, Mallick R, Hutton B, Thavorn K, Le Gal G, Rodger MA, and Fergusson DA
Background: The long-term risk of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulant therapy for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain., Objectives: To determine the incidence of major bleeding up to 5 years after discontinuing anticoagulation for a first unprovoked VTE., Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL (from inception to January 2021) to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies reporting major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked or weakly provoked VTE who had completed (IMAGE_)3 months of initial treatment. Unpublished data on major bleeding events and person-years were obtained from authors of included studies to calculate study-level incidence rates. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results across studies., Results: Of 1,123 records identified by the search, 20 studies (17 RCTs) and 8,740 patients were included in the analysis. During 13,011 person-years of follow-up after discontinuing anticoagulation, the pooled incidence of major bleeding ( n = 41) and fatal bleeding ( n = 7) per 100 person-years was 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20-0.54) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.05-0.15). The 5-year cumulative incidence of major bleeding was of 1.0% (95% CI: 0.4-2.4%). The case-fatality rate of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation was 19.9% (95% CI: 10.6-31.1%)., Conclusion: The risk of major bleeding once anticoagulants are discontinued in patients with a first unprovoked VTE is not zero. Estimates from this study can help clinicians counsel patients about the incremental risk of major bleeding with extended anticoagulation to guide decision making about treatment duration for unprovoked VTE., Competing Interests: M.C. reports receiving research support form Leo Pharma and BMS, and honoraria from Pfizer, Bayer, BMS, and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. S.S. reports receiving honoraria from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer HealthCare, Daiichi Sankyo, and Sanofi, and research support from Boehringer Ingelheim, Baxter, and Octapharma, outside the submitted work. J.I.W. reports receiving honoraria from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer, Daiichi Sankyo, Servier, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Janssen, Novartis, and Ionis Pharmaceuticals, and research support from Boehringer Ingelheim outside the scope of the submitted work. F.C. reports having received research grant support from Pfizer, honoraria for board memberships or symposia from Bayer and AstraZeneca, and travel support from Bayer, Daiichi Sankyo, Leo Pharma, Intermune, and Actelion, outside the submitted work. C.B. reports receiving lecture fees from Bayer HealthCare, Bristol Meyer Squibb, and Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. G.A. reports personal fees from Bristol-Myers-Squibb, Pfizer, Bayer Healthcare, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Daiichi Sankyo, outside the submitted work. T.A.B. reports receiving personal fees from Bayer, Bayer Australia, Novo Nordisk, and GlaxoSmithKline, outside the submitted work. W.A.L. reports being an employee of Bayer HealthCare. G.P. reports advisory Board for Alfa-Wassermann, Daiichi-Sankyo, Pfizer, and Roche, and speaker fees from Werfen, outside the submitted work. B.H. reports receiving honoraria from Cornerstone Research Group for provision of methodologic advice related to systematic reviews and meta-analysis. P.P. reports receiving consultancy and lectures fees from Bayer Pharma, Sanofi, Daiichi-Sankyo, and Pfizer, outside the submitted work. H.R.B. reports receiving research support and consultancy fees from Sanofi-Aventis, Bayer HealthCare, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Daiichi-Sankyo, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Roche, Isis, Thrombogenics, and Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. G.L.-G. holds the Chair on Diagnosis of Venous Thromboembolism at the Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, and a Clinician-Scientist Award from the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada. M.R. is the McGill University Harry Webster Thorp Professor of Medicine. G.L.-G reports other support from Portola Pharmaceuticals, Boehringer Ingelheim, Pfizer, Bristol Myers Squibb, LEO Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Bayer, Sanofi, and bioMerieux, outside the submitted work. No other authors disclosed any competing interests., (Thieme. All rights reserved.)