746 results on '"information uncertainty"'
Search Results
2. Activation of the cognitive control network associated with information uncertainty.
- Author
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Wu T, Schulz KP, and Fan J
- Subjects
- Adult, Brain diagnostic imaging, Female, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging methods, Male, Nerve Net diagnostic imaging, Random Allocation, Acoustic Stimulation methods, Brain physiology, Cognition physiology, Nerve Net physiology, Photic Stimulation methods, Uncertainty
- Abstract
The cognitive control network (CCN) that comprises regions of the frontoparietal network, the cingulo-opercular network, and other sub-cortical regions as core structures is commonly activated by events with an increase in information uncertainty. However, it is not clear whether this CCN activation is associated with both information entropy that represents the information conveyed by the context formed by a sequence of events and the surprise that quantifies the information conveyed by a specific type of event in the context. We manipulated entropy and surprise in this functional magnetic resonance imaging study by varying the probability of occurrence of two types of events in both the visual and auditory modalities and measured brain response as a function of entropy and surprise. We found that activation in regions of the CCN increased as a function of entropy and surprise in both the visual and auditory tasks. The frontoparietal network and additional structures in the CCN mediated the relationship between these information measures and behavioral response. These results suggest that the CCN is a high-level modality-general neural entity for the control of the processing of information conveyed by both context and event., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Information uncertainty: a correlate for acute stress disorder during the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
- Author
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Lin D, Friedman DB, Qiao S, Tam CC, Li X, and Li X
- Subjects
- Adolescent, COVID-19 epidemiology, China epidemiology, Female, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, Stress, Psychological epidemiology, Students psychology, Students statistics & numerical data, Surveys and Questionnaires, Young Adult, COVID-19 psychology, Consumer Health Information standards, Disease Outbreaks, Stress Disorders, Traumatic, Acute epidemiology, Uncertainty
- Abstract
Background: Individuals' stress in responding to the current COVID-19 pandemic may be exacerbated by information uncertainty driven by inconsistent, unverified, and conflicting news from various sources. The current study aims to test if information uncertainty during the COVID-19 outbreak was related to acute stress disorder (ASD) over and above other psychosocial stressors., Methods: An anonymous online survey was conducted with 7800 college students throughout China from January 31 through February 11, 2020. Existing scales were modified to measure ASD and six potential stressors including information uncertainty during the COVID-19 outbreak. Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to assess the unique association of information uncertainty with ASD. To minimize the effect of large sample size and also to get a sense of whether the effects of information uncertainty were similar to people at the center of the epidemic, we repeated the hierarchical regression among 10% of the students who were randomly selected from the entire sample ("10% random sample"; n = 780) and 226 students from Hubei Province where the outbreak started., Results: Information uncertainty was highly prevalent among the respondents (64%). It was significantly associated with ASD beyond other key variables and potential stressors across three samples. In the hierarchical regression among the entire sample, demographic variables accounted for 9.4% of the variance in ASD. The other five stressors added 5.1% of the variance. The information uncertainty (β = .159; p < .001) explained an additional 2.1% of the variance. Likewise, the information uncertainty explained an additional 2.1 and 3.4% of the variance in ASD beyond all other variables among the 10% random sample (β = .165; p < .001) and the Hubei sample (β = .196; p < .01), respectively., Conclusion: Information uncertainty is a unique correlate of psychological stress during the COVID-19 outbreak. Reducing information uncertainty is essential not only for halting virus transmission but also for mitigating negative impacts of the pandemic on people's psychosocial wellbeing. Transparent, timely, and accurate communication can reduce public confusion, fear, and stress. Capacity building in governments, communities, and media outlets to prevent, reduce and manage information uncertainty should be a critical part of the response to an emerging global health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. An experimental investigation of the “follow own signal” decision rule under increased information uncertainty
- Author
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Tsang, Ming and Stivers, Adam
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. The price of firm-level information uncertainty.
- Author
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Wang, Xi, Gao, Chao, and Wang, Tianfu
- Abstract
• We construct a new measure of firm-level information uncertainty. • In aggregate, our uncertainty measure comoves with other uncertainty measures. • This measure positively predicts future stock returns. • This measure primarily captures the idiosyncratic component in the cross-section. Firm-level uncertainty is difficult to measure in nature. We construct a new measure of firm-level information uncertainty based on uncertainty premium implied by earnings announcement returns. This new measure fundamentally differs from other firm-level uncertainty measures. We find that high-uncertainty firms outperform low-uncertainty firms by 9.59 % per annum on a risk-adjusted basis. Furthermore, this return predictability persists for up to five quarters. Our uncertainty measure and its return predictability are primarily driven by the idiosyncratic component. Overall, our results support the existence of an uncertainty premium and cast doubt on the hedgeability of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Quantifying the Psychological Online Communities Considering the Relationship between COVID-19-Related Threat, Information Uncertainty, and Risk Perception.
- Author
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Lu, Liangdong, Xu, Jia, Wei, Jiuchang, and LeRon Shults, F.
- Subjects
RISK perception ,VIRTUAL communities ,PSYCHOLOGICAL resilience ,NATURAL language processing ,PUBLIC opinion ,CRISIS management ,CITIES & towns - Abstract
This study employed deep learning to analyze a substantial data set of 109.13 million COVID-19-related microblogs, leading to the construction of a specialized risk perception indicator dictionary. Employing this dictionary, we were able to capture the dynamic fluctuations in risk perception within online communities across various cities in real time. This approach highlighted the varying intensities of public response to the evolving crisis during the isolation and normalization stages of the pandemic. We observed that COVID-19-related transmission threat and information uncertainty significantly influenced public risk perception at different stages of the pandemic. Innovatively, our study quantifies public psychological resilience within online communities by examining the equilibrium between public risk perception and objective COVID-19-related risks. This equilibrium is conceptualized as the alignment of public perception with the evolving reality of COVID-19 threat and information. We investigated psychological resilience in two dimensions: adaptability, indicated by the extent of deviation from this equilibrium, and agility, reflected in the rate at which equilibrium is reestablished. Our study not only unveils new insights into the intricate relationship among public risk perception, the evolving risks, and psychological resilience but also offers empirical evidence to inform risk management strategies in online communities at different stages of a crisis. Practical Applications: This research provides essential insights into how public perception and emotional responses during health crises like COVID-19 can be monitored and analyzed through social media data. By utilizing advanced analytical methods, including natural language processing (NLP) and panel vector error correction (PVEC) modeling, the study successfully quantified the psychological resilience of online communities. These methods allow for the real-time assessment of how communities adapt and respond to evolving risks, such as transmission threats and information uncertainty. For policymakers and crisis managers, these findings offer valuable tools for understanding public sentiment during different phases of a crisis. This understanding is crucial for shaping effective communication strategies and tailoring public health responses to specific community needs. The study's methodology is adaptable across different cultural contexts and can be applied to various crisis scenarios, making it a versatile tool in global crisis management. The study's approach demonstrates the potential of using social media analytics not only for academic research but also for practical, real-time crisis management. By providing a framework for measuring and interpreting public risk perception and resilience, the research aids in the development of more responsive and effective public health strategies. Overall, this research contributes significantly to both theory and practice in the field of crisis management, offering novel methods for assessing community resilience and guiding decision-making during public health emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
7. Activation of the cognitive control network associated with information uncertainty
- Author
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Tingting Wu, Kurt P. Schulz, and Jin Fan
- Subjects
Cognitive control ,Cognitive control network ,Entropy ,Surprise ,Uncertainty ,Neurosciences. Biological psychiatry. Neuropsychiatry ,RC321-571 - Abstract
The cognitive control network (CCN) that comprises regions of the frontoparietal network, the cingulo-opercular network, and other sub-cortical regions as core structures is commonly activated by events with an increase in information uncertainty. However, it is not clear whether this CCN activation is associated with both information entropy that represents the information conveyed by the context formed by a sequence of events and the surprise that quantifies the information conveyed by a specific type of event in the context. We manipulated entropy and surprise in this functional magnetic resonance imaging study by varying the probability of occurrence of two types of events in both the visual and auditory modalities and measured brain response as a function of entropy and surprise. We found that activation in regions of the CCN increased as a function of entropy and surprise in both the visual and auditory tasks. The frontoparietal network and additional structures in the CCN mediated the relationship between these information measures and behavioral response. These results suggest that the CCN is a high-level modality-general neural entity for the control of the processing of information conveyed by both context and event.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
8. Information uncertainty: a correlate for acute stress disorder during the COVID-19 outbreak in China
- Author
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Shan Qiao, Xiaoyan Li, Daniela B. Friedman, Danhua Lin, Xiaoming Li, and Cheuk Chi Tam
- Subjects
Male ,China ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Acute stress disorder ,Adolescent ,050801 communication & media studies ,Sample (statistics) ,Disease Outbreaks ,Young Adult ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,0508 media and communications ,Risk Factors ,Surveys and Questionnaires ,Epidemiology ,Global health ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Students ,Stress Disorders, Traumatic, Acute ,Consumer Health Information ,business.industry ,lcsh:Public aspects of medicine ,Public health ,05 social sciences ,Multilevel model ,Stressor ,Uncertainty ,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ,COVID-19 ,lcsh:RA1-1270 ,Information uncertainty ,Female ,Biostatistics ,business ,Psychosocial ,Stress, Psychological ,Research Article ,Demography - Abstract
Background Individuals’ stress in responding to the current COVID-19 pandemic may be exacerbated by information uncertainty driven by inconsistent, unverified, and conflicting news from various sources. The current study aims to test if information uncertainty during the COVID-19 outbreak was related to acute stress disorder (ASD) over and above other psychosocial stressors. Methods An anonymous online survey was conducted with 7800 college students throughout China from January 31 through February 11, 2020. Existing scales were modified to measure ASD and six potential stressors including information uncertainty during the COVID-19 outbreak. Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to assess the unique association of information uncertainty with ASD. To minimize the effect of large sample size and also to get a sense of whether the effects of information uncertainty were similar to people at the center of the epidemic, we repeated the hierarchical regression among 10% of the students who were randomly selected from the entire sample (“10% random sample”; n = 780) and 226 students from Hubei Province where the outbreak started. Results Information uncertainty was highly prevalent among the respondents (64%). It was significantly associated with ASD beyond other key variables and potential stressors across three samples. In the hierarchical regression among the entire sample, demographic variables accounted for 9.4% of the variance in ASD. The other five stressors added 5.1% of the variance. The information uncertainty (β = .159; p p p Conclusion Information uncertainty is a unique correlate of psychological stress during the COVID-19 outbreak. Reducing information uncertainty is essential not only for halting virus transmission but also for mitigating negative impacts of the pandemic on people’s psychosocial wellbeing. Transparent, timely, and accurate communication can reduce public confusion, fear, and stress. Capacity building in governments, communities, and media outlets to prevent, reduce and manage information uncertainty should be a critical part of the response to an emerging global health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Published
- 2020
9. Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs
- Author
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Price, S. McKay, Gatzlaff, Dean H., and Sirmans, C. F.
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
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10. The impact of information uncertainty on the problems of medium- and long-term planning of the operation modes of gas transport systems.
- Author
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Sukharev, M.G. and Kulik, V.S.
- Subjects
- *
CHOICE of transportation , *MEMBERSHIP functions (Fuzzy logic) , *FUZZY sets , *UNCERTAINTY , *SET functions - Abstract
This paper considers a problem of source data uncertainty concerning the technical state of gas supply systems. Decision-making in the region of managing and development planning of the gas supply systems (production, transport, distribution, storage), as a rule, occurs by lacking of information, and the validity of some data is questionable. We propose to formalize the information uncertainty in terms of membership functions of the fuzzy sets. Mathematical models and algorithms for solving the various modelling and optimization problems of the natural gas transport are worked out. The results of calculations demonstrate the potential of the technique. • Fuzzy models for the technical state parameters of pipelines and compressors. • An algorithm for calculating the maximum flow capacity of a gas-transport system with fuzzily-assigned parameters. • An optimization algorithm of the operation modes of a gas transport system with fuzzily-assigned parameters. • Application of the proposed models and algorithms to the illustrative and real-world gas transport systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
11. Information, uncertainty and decision making in site investigation for rock engineering
- Author
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Mazzoccola, D.F., Millar, D.L., and Hudson, J.A.
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
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12. A topological method for reduction in digital information uncertainty.
- Author
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Elsafty, M. A. and Alkhathami, A. M.
- Subjects
- *
ROUGH sets , *UNCERTAINTY , *INFORMATION storage & retrieval systems - Abstract
An attribute reduct, an important concept of rough set theory, is a subset that is sufficient and individually necessary for preserving a particular property of the given information system. In this study, we present a proposed method to calculate the accuracy of data by using the concepts of pre-open and semi-open. We also compared the results of accuracies in the proposed method with the accuracies in Yao and Pawlak methods. Our study revealed that the new model calculating the degree of accuracy was better than the previous models. Additionally, we provided a new insight into the application of the attribute reduction and we used MATLAB programming to obtain the result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Reliable Task Offloading for Vehicular Fog Computing Under Information Asymmetry and Information Uncertainty.
- Author
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Zhou, Zhenyu, Liao, Haijun, Zhao, Xiongwen, Ai, Bo, and Guizani, Mohsen
- Subjects
- *
INFORMATION asymmetry , *EXPECTED utility , *UNCERTAINTY , *PROCESS optimization , *TASKS - Abstract
Vehicular fog computing has emerged as a cost-efficient solution for task processing in vehicular networks. However, how to realize effective server recruitment and reliable task offloading under information asymmetry and uncertainty remains a critical challenge. In this paper, we adopt a two-stage task offloading framework to address this challenge. First, we propose a convex–concave-procedure-based contract optimization algorithm for server recruitment, which aims to maximize the expected utility of the operator with asymmetric information. Then, a low-complexity and stable task offloading mechanism is proposed to minimize the total network delay based on the pricing-based matching. Furthermore, we extend the work to the scenario of information uncertainty and develop a matching-learning-based task offloading mechanism, which takes both occurrence awareness and conflict awareness into consideration. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can effectively motivate resource sharing and guarantee bounded deviation from the optimal performance without the global information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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- View/download PDF
14. Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns.
- Author
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ZHANG, X. FRANK
- Subjects
STOCK prices ,PRICES of securities ,RATE of return ,INVESTORS ,MARKET volatility ,FINANCIAL market reaction ,UNCERTAINTY ,EXPECTED returns ,PRICES ,INFORMATION-seeking behavior - Abstract
There is substantial evidence of short-term stock price continuation, which the prior literature often attributes to investor behavioral biases such as underreaction to new information. This paper investigates the role of information uncertainty in price continuation anomalies and cross-sectional variations in stock returns. If short-term price continuation is due to investor behavioral biases, we should observe greater price drift when there is greater information uncertainty. As a result, greater information uncertainty should produce relatively higher expected returns following good news and relatively lower expected returns following bad news. My evidence supports this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior.
- Author
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ZHANG, X. FRANK
- Subjects
INFORMATION-seeking behavior ,UNCERTAINTY ,INVESTMENT advisors ,BEHAVIOR ,BAD news ,ERRORS - Abstract
Prior literature observes that information uncertainty exacerbates investor underreaction behavior. In this paper, I investigate whether, as professional investment intermediaries, sellside analysts suffer more behavioral biases in cases of greater information uncertainty. I show that greater information uncertainty predicts more positive (negative) forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good (bad) news, which corroborates previous findings on the post-analyst-revision drift. The opposite effects of information uncertainty on forecast errors and subsequent forecast revisions following good versus bad news support the analyst underreaction hypothesis and are inconsistent with analyst forecast rationality or optimism suggested in prior literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Activation of the cognitive control network associated with information uncertainty
- Author
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Jin Fan, Tingting Wu, and Kurt P. Schulz
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,Surprise ,Computer science ,Entropy ,Cognitive Neuroscience ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Context (language use) ,Cognitive control network ,Article ,050105 experimental psychology ,lcsh:RC321-571 ,Random Allocation ,03 medical and health sciences ,Cognition ,0302 clinical medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Entropy (information theory) ,0501 psychology and cognitive sciences ,Control (linguistics) ,lcsh:Neurosciences. Biological psychiatry. Neuropsychiatry ,media_common ,Event (probability theory) ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,05 social sciences ,Uncertainty ,Brain ,Magnetic Resonance Imaging ,Acoustic Stimulation ,Neurology ,Cognitive control ,Female ,Nerve Net ,Functional magnetic resonance imaging ,Neuroscience ,Photic Stimulation ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery - Abstract
The cognitive control network (CCN) that comprises regions of the frontoparietal network, the cingulo-opercular network, and other sub-cortical regions as core structures is commonly activated by events with an increase in information uncertainty. However, it is not clear whether this CCN activation is associated with both information entropy that represents the information conveyed by the context formed by a sequence of events and the surprise that quantifies the information conveyed by a specific type of event in the context. We manipulated entropy and surprise in this functional magnetic resonance imaging study by varying the probability of occurrence of two types of events in both the visual and auditory modalities and measured brain response as a function of entropy and surprise. We found that activation in regions of the CCN increased as a function of entropy and surprise in both the visual and auditory tasks. The frontoparietal network and additional structures in the CCN mediated the relationship between these information measures and behavioral response. These results suggest that the CCN is a high-level modality-general neural entity for the control of the processing of information conveyed by both context and event.
- Published
- 2021
17. Fault diagnosis model based on Bayesian network considering information uncertainty and its application in traction power supply system.
- Author
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Lin, Sheng, Chen, Xiyang, and Wang, Qi
- Subjects
- *
COMPUTER debugging software , *BAYESIAN analysis , *MONTE Carlo method software , *TRACTION power supplies , *SIMULATION methods & models , *COMPUTER software - Abstract
Fault diagnosis is of great significance in maintaining the safe and stable operation of a system. Fast and precise location of faults is important for restoring power supply systems. In this paper, considering the interference of information uncertainty to fault diagnosis under different weather conditions, a fault diagnosis model based on Bayesian network is proposed. The model inherits the capability of processing uncertain information of a Bayesian network and divides the information into historical information and evidence information. The uncertainty of historical information is reduced by modifying the parameters through improving parameter learning formulas, while that of evidence information can be reduced by logical judgment. A fault simulation model based on Monte Carlo method is used to generate simulation data for parameter learning, and a case study confirms the correctness of the proposed fault diagnosis and fault simulation models. © 2018 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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- View/download PDF
18. PHYSICIAN - EXPECTANT MOTHER COMMUNICATION: AN ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY.
- Author
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Williams, M. Lee and Meredith, Vick
- Subjects
PREGNANT women ,MOTHERS ,DELIVERY (Obstetrics) ,LABOR (Obstetrics) ,UNCERTAINTY ,ANXIETY ,BREASTFEEDING ,SMOKING ,PHYSICIAN-patient relations - Abstract
Results indicated that expectant mothers had relatively high uncertainty about what to expect during labor and delivery as well as needed more information about breast feeding. Too much information was given on smoking and drinking, and patients felt they got too much written information. High information uncertainty was significantly related to patient dissatisfaction, and a variety of demographic factors were found to be correlated with information uncertainty and satisfaction with the physician. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1984
- Full Text
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19. Information, uncertainty and the manipulability of artificial intelligence autonomous vehicles systems.
- Author
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Osório, António and Pinto, Alberto
- Subjects
- *
ARTIFICIAL intelligence , *AUTONOMOUS vehicles , *DECISION making , *UNCERTAINTY , *HONDA Civic automobile - Abstract
• AV utilitarian protocols implies some predictability. • If AV decision process is perfectly known then is manipulable. • Sufficiently high levels of uncertainty are necessary. • Uncertainty decreases the risk of successful manipulation. • (but) Uncertainty decrease the quality of the decision process, efficiency and welfare. In an avoidable harmful situation, autonomous vehicles systems are expected to choose the course of action that causes the less damage to everybody. However, this behavioral protocol implies some predictability. In this context, we show that if the autonomous vehicle decision process is perfectly known then malicious, opportunistic, terrorist, criminal and non-civic individuals may have incentives to manipulate it. Consequently, some levels of uncertainty are necessary for the system to be manipulation proof. Uncertainty removes the misbehavior incentives because it increases the risk and likelihood of unsuccessful manipulation. However, uncertainty may also decrease the quality of the decision process with negative impact in terms of efficiency and welfare for the society. We also discuss other possible solutions to this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. Green Transportation and Information Uncertainty in Gasoline Distribution: Evidence from China.
- Author
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Xu, Xiaofeng, Wang, Chenglong, Li, Jian, and Shi, Chunming
- Subjects
SUSTAINABLE transportation ,VEHICLE routing problem ,GASOLINE ,UNCERTAINTY ,HEURISTIC algorithms - Abstract
The green vehicle routing problem of distributing gasoline to retail gasoline stations in a way that is not just the most cost-effective overall but also reduces its own carbon emissions needs to account for uncertainty from multiple sources. Therefore, in this paper we study how to do this, simultaneously reducing the cost and minimizing the environmental impact in the presence of information uncertainty. Among the sources of uncertainty are random demand by gas stations and uncertain travel time to them by tankers, which we build into our model. We also design a three-stage heuristic algorithm. In the first stage, the chance constraints of the model are converted into their deterministic equivalents. In the second stage, gas stations are clustered, based on their distance and demand for gasoline. In the third stage, we use a genetic algorithm to solve the model based on the first two stages. Finally, we use our simulation results to propose how gas stations can optimize their cost of gasoline distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. The Effects of the Type and Content of Audit Reports for Financially Stressed Initial Public Offerings on Information Uncertainty.
- Author
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Kaplan, Steven E., Taylor, Gary K., and Williams, David D.
- Subjects
FINANCIAL stress ,PREDICTION markets ,UNCERTAINTY ,PUBLIC companies - Abstract
SUMMARY: The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) has expressed concern that audit reports do not contain sufficient variation to provide useful information to the market. Using a sample of financially stressed initial public offering (IPO) firms, we investigate whether information uncertainty is affected by (1) three different types of audit reports—unqualified (clean), hybrid (with explanatory language about financial stress), and going concern (GCAR)—and (2) audit report disclosures. We provide evidence that audit reports (hybrid and GCAR) and audit report disclosures provide useful information to the market by finding a significant reduction in information uncertainty. Just as important, we find that management discretionary going concern disclosures do not complement or substitute for the reduction in information uncertainty associated with hybrid audit reports and GCARs. We provide evidence that current audit report types and disclosures of financially stressed IPO firms provide information to the market. JEL Classifications: M40; M42; G14. Data Availability: The data used in this study are available from public sources indicated in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
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- View/download PDF
22. Information, Uncertainty, and War.
- Author
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Ramsay, Kristopher W.
- Subjects
- *
WAR & society , *UNCERTAINTY , *DATA management , *GAME theory , *ECONOMICS , *INFORMATION services ,SOCIAL aspects - Abstract
Uncertainty about capabilities, intent, or resolve has long been linked to war. More recently, the bargaining model of war has established uncertainty, also referred to as asymmetric information, as one of the two major causes of costly conflict, the other being the dynamics of commitment in anarchy. A growing theoretical literature has made significant strides in fleshing out causal mechanisms and expanding our understanding of the role of information in conflict onset and how it relates to crisis bargaining and arms races. This article reviews these theoretical developments and describes current efforts to better understand the relationships between information, uncertainty, and war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
23. IMPROVEMENT OF LOCAL AREA GOVERNING: THE NATURE OF INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY IN CASE OF EVALUATION OF EXECUTIVE POWER BODY OPERATION
- Author
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O. Yu. Saveliev
- Subjects
Economics as a science ,lcsh:HB71-74 ,lcsh:Economics as a science ,information quality ,operation evaluation ,uncertainty ,civil society ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The article describes the analysis of the nature of uncertainty caused by information quality.
- Published
- 2015
24. Heaping on Dividends: The Role of Dividend Size and Information Uncertainty.
- Author
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Jakob, Keith and Nam, Yoonsoo
- Subjects
DIVIDENDS ,DIVIDEND policy ,COGNITIVE bias ,HUMAN error ,UNCERTAINTY - Abstract
The authors examine whether a cognitive bias influences dividend policy. They find that managers use a heaping heuristic when choosing the amount of their firm's dividend. Heaping is a human error or bias to round numbers even though precise values are desired. This bias leads to dividend distributions clustered at specific amounts. Dividend size and the level of information uncertainty faced by management help explain the likelihood of heaping. The authors also observe that heaped dividends are "sticky" and altered less frequently, and when there is a dividend change, heaped dividends are more often switched to another heaped amount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Models of vehicle service system supply under information uncertainty.
- Author
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Jacyna, Marianna and Semenov, Iouri
- Subjects
VEHICLE models ,SPARE parts ,UNCERTAINTY ,SERVICE stations ,PRODUCTION planning ,IN-vehicle computing - Abstract
The paper presents problems of decision-making for planning and implementation of vehicle service system supplies with spare parts under incomplete information. The lack of effective supply planning models using artificial intelligence principles contributes to widening the gap in the problem. The analyses confirm that information uncertainty is one of the main factors in supply failures leading to financial losses for both vehicle service stations and supply companies. Authors structured national vehicle service system by classifying its three different segments. This allowed the identification of risks of making incorrect logistics decisions in each of defined segments. It has been shown that the supply planning process in each of segments is carried out according to different rules. Authorial decision models for each of segments are then presented. The models can be used as a tool to support and improve supplying vehicle service stations in conditions of information uncertainty. In the application part, a proprietary algorithm has been developed to solve proposed models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
26. The financial strength anomaly in the UK: information uncertainty or liquidity?
- Author
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Kumsta, René and Vivian, Andrew
- Subjects
UNCERTAINTY ,INVESTMENT information ,INVESTMENT policy ,INFORMATION measurement - Abstract
This paper examines two potential key drivers of the financial strength (F-Score) investment strategy: information uncertainty and liquidity. We use novel, direct measures of information uncertainty related to the variability of financial strength signals themselves. However, financial strength strategy returns are not generally strongly related to these information uncertainty proxies. We also examine two proxies for liquidity. Financial strength strategy returns are generally substantially larger for illiquid firms. A zero-cost arbitrage strategy based on F-Score generates a 20% return in illiquid UK stocks and 12% in liquid UK stocks. The enhanced F-Score effect is driven by a flight from illiquidity amongst financially weak stocks. Overall, the profitability of the F-Score investment strategy appears more closely related to liquidity than to information uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. Presentation of Information Uncertainty from IoBT for Military Decision Making
- Author
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Raglin, Adrienne, Hutchison, David, Editorial Board Member, Kanade, Takeo, Editorial Board Member, Kittler, Josef, Editorial Board Member, Kleinberg, Jon M., Editorial Board Member, Mattern, Friedemann, Editorial Board Member, Mitchell, John C., Editorial Board Member, Naor, Moni, Editorial Board Member, Pandu Rangan, C., Editorial Board Member, Steffen, Bernhard, Editorial Board Member, Terzopoulos, Demetri, Editorial Board Member, Tygar, Doug, Editorial Board Member, Goos, Gerhard, Founding Editor, Hartmanis, Juris, Founding Editor, Streitz, Norbert, editor, and Konomi, Shin’ichi, editor
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. Understanding the Role of Guanxi in Transitional Economies: Information, Uncertainty, and Network Structure.
- Author
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Kuang-chi Chang
- Subjects
SOCIAL networks ,NANYIN ,SOCIAL groups ,SOCIAL participation ,SOCIAL theory - Abstract
China provides scholars with a great opportunity to examine issues relating to social networks, as conventional wisdom recognizes that social connections, or "guanxi," are considered by many Chinese to be important aspects of their lives. This paper begins by introducing the academic debate on the significance of guanxi in the transitional China. I classify the concepts of the diverse schools and arguments of the debate, and analyze the fundamental similarities and differences among these theoretical perspectives. Extended from this debate, this paper then provides an analytical framework to examine guanxi from a perspective of social network analysis that emphasizes actors and their strategies as they are embedded in an institutional environment and a web of social relations. This framework compares two types of uncertainty that individual actors seek to resolve in two different stages of the process of market transition, and indicates that the behavioral changes such as those of guanxi are affected by changes in factors including the society's information system, opportunity scheme, network structure and market competition, which are driven by the changes in the larger environment—the transition from the command economy to market economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2005
29. Effect of information, uncertainty and parameter variability on profits in a queue with various pricing strategies.
- Author
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Sun, Wei and Li, Shiyong
- Subjects
- *
PARAMETERS (Statistics) , *QUEUING theory , *CUSTOMER services , *UNCERTAINTY , *PRICING , *QUALITY of service , *ECONOMICS - Abstract
This paper presents an unobservable single-server queueing system with three types of uncertainty, where the service rate, or waiting cost or service quality is random variable that may obtainn(n> 2) values. The information about the realised values of parameters is only known to the server. We are concerned about the server’s behaviour: revealing or concealing the information to customers. Then-value assumption and the server’s behaviour enable us to consider various pricing strategies. In this paper, we analyse the effect of information and uncertainty on profits and make comparisons between the profits under different pricing strategies. Moreover, as for parameter variability reflected by the number of each parameter’s possible choicesn, we observe the effect of variablenon all types of profits and find that revealing the parameter information can much more benefit the server with the increase ofn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Information uncertainty in conditions of development of methods of risk-management
- Subjects
оценка риска ,оцінка ризику ,невизначеність ,риск-менеджмент ,risk assessment ,неопределенность ,financial management ,ризик-менеджмент ,risk-management ,uncertainty ,управління фінансами ,управление финансами - Abstract
Визначено об’єктивність інформаційної невизначеності в умовах ринкових перетворень. Розглянуто адекватність методів управління фінансами якості вхідної інформації. Розкрито принцип оцінки ризику прийняття рішень у фінансовій сфері. The objectivity of information uncertainty in conditions of market transformations is determined. The adequacy of methods of management of the finance of quality of the entrance information is considered. The principle of an estimation of risk of acceptance of the decisions in financial sphere is opened.
- Published
- 2004
31. Reducing Capital Market Anomaly: The Role of Information Technology Using an Information Uncertainty Lens.
- Author
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Jia, Ning, Rai, Arun, and Xu, Sean Xin
- Subjects
CAPITAL market ,INFORMATION technology ,UNCERTAINTY ,INFORMATION storage & retrieval systems - Abstract
We investigate how firms use information technology (IT) implementation to mitigate an anomaly in capital markets: investors underreacting to new public information. The theory of information uncertainty (IU) suggests that the anomaly is amplified with IU; that is, with ambiguity in information about firm value. We theorize that a firm's IT in general—and enterprise systems (ES) in particular—can mitigate IU, thus reducing the IU-induced underreaction anomaly. Based on a difference-in-differences analysis of a sample of 572 ES implementations, our main finding is that ES implementation does reduce IU-induced underreaction anomaly. This is achieved through a reduction in the firm's fundamentals volatility and an improvement in information quality. We also find that firms with greater IT capability are better positioned to realize the anomaly-reducing benefits of ES implementation and that ES's anomaly-reducing effect is most pronounced when high levels of both functional and operational ES modules are implemented. We obtain remarkably consistent results when using alternate empirical design, samples, and measures of news. Such IT impacts are economically highly consequential because they improve capital market efficiency. This paper was accepted by Anandhi Bharadwaj, information systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Modeling Internet Security Investments: Tackling Topological Information Uncertainty
- Author
-
Pal, Ranjan, Hui, Pan, Hutchison, David, Series editor, Kanade, Takeo, Series editor, Kittler, Josef, Series editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., Series editor, Mattern, Friedemann, Series editor, Mitchell, John C., Series editor, Naor, Moni, Series editor, Nierstrasz, Oscar, Series editor, Pandu Rangan, C., Series editor, Steffen, Bernhard, Series editor, Sudan, Madhu, Series editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, Series editor, Tygar, Doug, Series editor, Vardi, Moshe Y., Series editor, Weikum, Gerhard, Series editor, Baras, John S., editor, Katz, Jonathan, editor, and Altman, Eitan, editor
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Are the individual and collective roles of financial reporting quality measures the same? Evidence in the context of information uncertainty.
- Author
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Hesarzadeh, Reza
- Subjects
ACCOUNTING ,FINANCIAL statements ,DEPENDENT variables ,CONJOINT analysis ,INFORMATION retrieval - Abstract
An implicit premise of much empirical research is that the individual role and the collective role of a financial reporting quality (quality) measure are the same, in the sense that the impacts of a quality measure on a dependent variable, without and with considering the trade-off/interaction and combination with other quality measures, are the same. I question whether the two roles are really the same. I conduct my investigation in the context of information uncertainty. I employ conventional statistical methods to explore the individual role of quality measures and use the decision tree method to explore their collective role. My findings reveal some significant differences between the two roles. Further, the findings indicate that the collective role of a quality measure can differ in accordance with the group to which the quality measure belongs. Overall, the findings reject this premise that the individual and collective roles of quality measures are the same. Moreover, the findings enhance the understanding of the collective role of quality measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Information Uncertainty in Electricity Markets: Introducing Probabilistic Offers.
- Author
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Papakonstantinou, Athanasios and Pinson, Pierre
- Subjects
- *
ENERGY industries , *RENEWABLE energy sources , *ELECTRIC power production , *UNCERTAINTY (Information theory) , *STOCHASTIC processes - Abstract
We propose a shift from the current paradigm of electricity markets treating stochastic producers similarly to conventional ones in terms of their offers. We argue that the producers' offers should be probabilistic to reflect the limited predictability of renewable energy generation, while we should design market mechanisms to accommodate such offers. We argue that the transition from deterministic offers is a natural next step in electricity markets, by analytically proving our proposal's equivalence with a two-price conventional market. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. An Innovative Project Evaluation Technique Under Conditions of Information Uncertainty.
- Author
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Okorokov, Vasiliy Romanovich and Kalchenko, Olga Alexandrovna
- Subjects
INFORMATION economy ,TECHNOLOGICAL innovations ,BIG business ,INDUSTRIAL efficiency ,FUZZY sets - Abstract
The paper examines the effectiveness and efficiency of innovative projects under conditions of uncertain information. It discusses classification of the classical types of economies and technological structures through human history; proposes a classification of uncertainty types; discusses the advantages and disadvantages of existing effectiveness and efficiency evaluation methods; and presents an algorithm of innovative strategy formation. Previous studies by the authors of the current paper [Okorokov et al., 2014] analyzed the drawbacks of effectiveness evaluation methods for existing innovative projects. The current study aims to develop the methodology for effectiveness evaluation of innovative projects in the circumstances of increasing amounts of information and uncertainty. For this purpose, the authors used a combination of real options and fuzzy sets approaches, which allowed them to take into account all the necessary information. This paper presents net present value fuzzy evaluation. The proposed technique was implemented in real medium- and large-sized industrial organizations in one of the most innovative regions of Russia -- Saint-Petersburg. The technique allows correction of the innovative projects as they are being implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
36. OPTIMAL PRICE SETTING IN FIXED-ODDS BETTING MARKETS UNDER INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY.
- Author
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Makropoulou, Vasiliki and Markellos, Raphael N.
- Subjects
GAMBLING industry ,SOCCER ,UNCERTAINTY ,PROBABILITY theory ,MATHEMATICAL models of economics ,RATE of return ,EXPECTED returns ,EXPECTED utility ,BOOKMAKERS (Gambling) ,ECONOMICS - Abstract
This paper develops a model of optimal pricing under information uncertainty for fixed-odds betting markets. The model suggests that bookmakers require a premium for quoting the odds several days before an event. This premium reflects the uncertainty of public information that can be exploited by expert bettors. The model predicts that when bookmakers set optimal prices, expected returns to bettors increase as a monotonic function of winning probabilities. In this manner, an information-based explanation is given for the celebrated favourite-longshot bias in fixed-odds. Using an extensive data-set of football odds from two major European bookmakers, we estimate the probability of informed betting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2011
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Corporate governance, market conditions and investors' reaction to information signals.
- Author
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Almaskati, Nawaf, Bird, Ron, Yeung, Danny, and Lu, Yue
- Abstract
We examine and compare the extent to which the reaction of investors to earnings announcements is influenced by a firm's governance profile and prevailing market conditions. We find that firms with better governance characteristics experience a larger initial reaction to both good and bad earnings announcements regardless of the prevailing sentiment and uncertainty conditions. However, the influence of governance is constrained to the announcement period. We demonstrate that changes in market uncertainty and/or investor sentiment are related to the post-earnings announcement drift. We also find that a major channel through which greater corporate governance influences the market response to unexpected earnings news is by lowering information uncertainty and so providing greater clarity of the implication of the news for firm value. Finally, we establish that two types of uncertainties (market and information) have very different influence on investor's response to information signals. JEL Classification: D81, G10, G14, G30, G32 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. 碳交易条件下基于鲁棒优化的电源规划研究.
- Author
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叶健强 and 孙敦虎
- Abstract
Copyright of Power Generation Technology is the property of Power Generation Technology Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. On the Information Uncertainty Risk and the January Effect.
- Author
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Dongcheol Kim
- Subjects
FINANCIAL markets ,UNCERTAINTY ,MARKET volatility ,RATE of return ,STOCK exchanges ,BUSINESS enterprises ,PUBLIC companies - Abstract
I provide a risk-based rational explanation for the seasonal regularity of January in stock returns by suggesting a common risk factor related to the information uncertainty caused by earnings volatility. When the two-factor model with the market risk factor and this common risk factor is used, there is a remarkable improvement in explaining the January effect. With the adjustment of raw returns for risk through this two-factor model, the systematic pattern in the residual returns across firm size disappears. This risk factor also dominates the other risk factors in explaining the cross section of stock returns in January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2006
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Information uncertainties and asset pricing puzzles: risk or mispricing?
- Author
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Li, Keming, Uddin, Mohammad Riaz, and Diltz, J. David
- Subjects
UNCERTAINTY ,STOCK prices ,MERTON Model - Abstract
Purpose – Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These anomalous stock price behaviors may result from mispricing. In contrast, Merton (1974) asserts that default risk is a function of the uncertainty in the asset value process. Information uncertainty may be subsumed by credit or default risk. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The authors employ various sorting techniques and Fama-MacBeth Regressions to test the hypotheses. Findings – The authors provide empirical evidence consistent with Merton’s (1974) default risk hypothesis and inconsistent with Miller’s (1977) mispricing hypothesis. Research limitations/implications – Risk aversion and not misplacing is the primary factor driving information-related anomalies in equities markets. Practical implications – It would be quite difficult to find arbitrage opportunities in equities markets because there appears to be little, if any, mis-pricing due to information uncertainties. Originality/value – This study provides important information about the primary underlying information-related source of certain empirical anomalies in the cross-section of stock returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
41. Determining the cost-effectiveness requirements of an exoskeleton preventing second hip fractures using value of information
- Author
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F. Fusco, Stefania Manetti, Giuseppe Turchetti, Fusco, Francesco [0000-0001-5515-3977], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Value of information ,Cost effectiveness ,Cost-Benefit Analysis ,Population ,Expected value of perfect information ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Physical medicine and rehabilitation ,Cost-effectiveness analysis, Early health technology assessment, Value of information, Uncertainty, Elicitation ,Utilization, expenditure, economics and financing systems ,Humans ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,education ,Aged ,Aged, 80 and over ,Hip fracture ,education.field_of_study ,Hip Fractures ,business.industry ,030503 health policy & services ,Health Policy ,lcsh:Public aspects of medicine ,Cost-effectiveness analysis ,Early health technology assessment ,Uncertainty ,lcsh:RA1-1270 ,Elicitation ,Exoskeleton Device ,medicine.disease ,Markov Chains ,United Kingdom ,Exoskeleton ,Economic evaluation ,Quality of Life ,Female ,0305 other medical science ,business ,human activities ,Research Article - Abstract
Background Falls may lead to hip fractures, which have a detrimental effect on the prognosis of patients as well as a considerable impact on healthcare expenditures. Since a secondary hip fracture (SHF) may lead to even higher costs than primary fractures, the development of innovative services is crucial to limit falls and curb costs in high-risk patients. An early economic evaluation assessed which patients with a second hip fracture could benefit most from an exoskeleton preventing falls and whether its development is feasible. Methods The life-course of hip fractured patients presenting with dementia or cardiovascular diseases was simulated using a Markov model relying on the United Kingdom administrative data and complemented by published literature. A group of experts provided the exoskeleton parameters. Secondary analyses included a threshold analysis to identify the exoskeleton requirements (e.g. minimum impact of the exoskeleton on patients’ quality of life) leading to a reimbursable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Similarly, the uncertainty around these requirements was modelled by varying their standard errors and represented alongside population Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI). Results Our base-case found the exoskeleton cost-effective when providing a statistically significant reduction in SHF risk. The secondary analyses identified 286 cost-effective combinations of the exoskeleton requirements. The uncertainty around these requirements was explored producing further 22,880 scenarios, which showed that this significant reduction in SHF risk was not necessary to support the exoskeleton adoption in clinical practice. Conversely, a significant improvement in women quality of life was crucial to obtain an acceptable population EVPI regardless of the cost of the exoskeleton. Conclusions Our study identified the exoskeleton requisites to be cost-effective and the value of future research. Decision-makers could use our analyses to assess not only whether the exoskeleton could be cost-effective but also how much further research and development of the exoskeleton is worth to be pursued.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
42. Information, Uncertainty and Choice.
- Author
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Pasour, E.C.
- Abstract
The analysis demonstrates that the relevant focus of economics is on the middle ground between perfect knowledge and total ignorance. Individual action always involves uncertainty because, as Mises emphasizes, uncertainty about the future and human action are two aspects of the same thing. The implications of uncertainty for human action are explored in a number of different contexts. Under uncertainty, profit maximization loses meaning as a guide to action and 'market failure' loses meaning and relevance as a guide for public policy. The paradox of omniscience, considered as perfect knowledge or the absence of uncertainty, is explored for individual decision making, profits and public policy. The findings support Hayek's thesis that knowledge is likely to be used most effectively if information is controlled by those whose knowledge and success depend on it. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
- Published
- 1997
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
43. Information, Uncertainty and the Decision to Secede.
- Author
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Walter, Barbara F.
- Subjects
- *
ETHNIC groups & politics , *AUTONOMY (Psychology) , *SEPARATISTS , *THEORY , *POLITICAL violence - Abstract
Since 1980, almost half of all armed conflicts have been fought between governments and ethnic minority groups over self-determination, yet we know surprisingly little about when and why they occur. The few studies that do exist focus on the deep injustices and structural conditions that may cause some groups to seek greater autonomy or independence and others not. I argue that ethnic groups are much more strategic than current theories allow. Ethnic groups decide whether to challenge based in part on whether the government has made concessions in the past, and whether the government can be expected to do so again in the future. Data on all ethnic groups for the years 1940 to 2000 reveals that ethnic groups are significantly more likely to seek self-determination if the government has acquiesced to an earlier group of separatists, and if the government is unlikely to encounter additional ethnic challengers in the future. Grievances and opportunity matter, but so does the larger strategic environment in which the government and its ethnic groups operate. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2005
44. Development and psychometric evaluation of uncertainty about disease and treatment scale in hemodialysis patients: a sequential-exploratory mixed-method study.
- Author
-
Rahimi Esbo, Sobhan, Ghaffari, Fatemeh, Fotokian, Zahra, Nikbakht, Hossein-Ali, and Saadati, Kiana
- Subjects
HEMODIALYSIS patients ,THERAPEUTICS ,LITERATURE reviews ,CHRONIC kidney failure ,MEASUREMENT errors - Abstract
Background and objective: The need for long-term treatment and frequent visits to treatment centers for hemodialysis can lead to psychological problems such as Uncertainty about Disease and Treatment (UC about D&T) in patients with chronic kidney failure. In order to understand uncertainty about disease and treatment and to plan for preventive measures and care interventions in various dimensions, there is a need for reliable and valid tools. The present study was conducted to design and psychometrically evaluate the Uncertainty about Disease and Treatment Scale (UC about D&TS) in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: This study is of a methodological type and conducted in two stages. The first stage included a deductive (literature review) and an inductive approach (face-to-face interviews). In the second stage, psychometric indices of the UC about D&TS, including face validity (qualitative-quantitative), content validity (qualitative-quantitative), construct validity (exploratory factor analysis), and reliability (using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega) were examined. Results: In the literature review stage, 66 items were extracted, and in the qualitative stage, 48 items were extracted. After merging similar items, 29 items were entered into the psychometric process. No items were removed in the face and content validity stages. In the construct validity stage, five factors were extracted, including self-uncertainty, uncertain situation, uncertain future, uncertainty of treatment outcomes, and information uncertainty, which constituted a total of 82.16% of the total variance. In this stage, five items were removed from the study due to a corrected item-total correlation below 0.32, and four items were removed due to cross-loading. The α and Ω were calculated as 0.828 and 0.818, respectively. The measurement stability and standard error of measurement were estimated at 0.977 and 2.019, respectively. Conclusion: The results showed that the UC about D&TS is a valid and reliable measure for patients undergoing hemodialysis. This scale is specifically designed to measure UC about D&T in hemodialysis patients, and it is recommended that healthcare providers (Hcps) use this scale in follow-up visits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
45. When does analyst reputation matter? Evidence from analysts' reliance on management guidance.
- Author
-
Chen, Wei, Dai, Lili, and Tan, Hun‐Tong
- Subjects
REPUTATION ,SECURITIES analysts ,CAREER development ,EARNINGS announcements ,EARNINGS forecasting - Abstract
We investigate the joint effects of analyst reputation, uncertainty and guidance news valence on analysts' reliance on management guidance. We find that, compared to less reputable analysts, reputable analysts rely less on guidance when they issue earnings forecasts. This analyst reputation effect is stronger when earnings and information uncertainty are higher or when the guidance contains good news. Further analysis suggests that both reputable and less reputable analysts sacrifice their forecast accuracy when they rely less on guidance; however, reputable analysts are compensated to a greater extent by the increased informativeness of their forecasts. Finally, we find that analysts' future career advancement is enhanced when their reliance is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. INTEGRATING MARKETING AND R&D PROJECT PERSONNEL WITHIN INNOVATION PROJECTS: AN INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY MODEL.
- Author
-
Souder, William E. and Moenaert, Rudy K.
- Subjects
TECHNOLOGICAL innovations ,PROCESS control systems ,INDUSTRIAL research ,RESEARCH & development ,MARKETING ,COMPETITION ,CREATIVE ability in technology ,UNCERTAINTY ,INNOVATION adoption ,DIFFUSION of innovations - Abstract
Technological innovation within the firm can be modelled as a process of uncertainty reduction. The four major sources of uncertainty are user needs, technological environments, competitive environments, and organizational resources. Reducing these uncertainties is the responsibility of the marketing and R&D functions within the firm. Because these functions are reciprocally interdependent, their success in reducing uncertainty requires integration and collaboration between them. A contingency framework is developed which shows the effect and the determinants of interfunctional information transfer. It is argued that the synergistic results of integration can best be understood as a within-role increase of uncertainty reduction, and a between-role convergence of functional uncertainty reduction. The implications of the model are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 1992
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. Determinants of initial goodwill overstatement in affiliated and non‐affiliated mergers.
- Author
-
Ahn, Sunghee, Cheon, Youngsoon S., and Kim, Moonchul
- Subjects
INSTITUTIONAL investors ,UNCERTAINTY - Abstract
This study examines the determinants of goodwill overstatement at the time of mergers in a Korean setting. In the Korean M&A market, there are two types of mergers: mergers between independent companies (non‐affiliated mergers) and mergers between companies under common control (affiliated mergers). This study extends the literature by examining the factors likely to cause goodwill overstatement in both types of mergers. The results reveal that in affiliated mergers, goodwill at the time of a merger tends to be overstated when controlling owners have higher equity ownership in the target than in the acquirer. By contrast, information uncertainty in the target value causes initial goodwill overstatement in non‐affiliated mergers. We also find that monitoring of independent institutional investors with concentrated holdings against overpaying for the target is more pronounced when controlling owners in affiliated mergers have incentives to overpay for the target. In affiliated mergers, acquirers tend to write off goodwill more frequently when controlling owners have higher equity ownership in the target than in the acquirer. In non‐affiliated mergers, information uncertainty in the target value is significantly associated with subsequent goodwill write‐offs. These results suggest that the type of merger has important consequences for initial goodwill recognition and subsequent impairment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Stochastic signaling in the presence of channel state information uncertainty
- Author
-
Goken, Cagri, Gezici, Sinan, and Arikan, Orhan
- Subjects
- *
STOCHASTIC processes , *SIGNALS & signaling , *UNCERTAINTY , *TELECOMMUNICATION systems , *BINARY systems (Astronomy) , *TRANSMITTERS (Communication) - Abstract
Abstract: In this paper, stochastic signaling is studied for power-constrained scalar valued binary communications systems in the presence of uncertainties in channel state information (CSI). First, stochastic signaling based on the available imperfect channel coefficient at the transmitter is analyzed, and it is shown that optimal signals can be represented by a randomization between at most two distinct signal levels for each symbol. Then, performance of stochastic signaling and conventional deterministic signaling is compared for this scenario, and sufficient conditions are derived for improvability and nonimprovability of deterministic signaling via stochastic signaling in the presence of CSI uncertainty. Furthermore, under CSI uncertainty, two different stochastic signaling strategies, namely, robust stochastic signaling and stochastic signaling with averaging, are proposed. For the robust stochastic signaling problem, sufficient conditions are derived for reducing the problem to a simpler form. It is shown that the optimal signal for each symbol can be expressed as a randomization between at most two distinct signal values for stochastic signaling with averaging, as well as for robust stochastic signaling under certain conditions. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to explore the theoretical results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2013
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
49. COMMUNICATION PATTERNS OF LEADERS OF THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS IN RESPONDING TO UNCERTAINTY OF INFORMATION ON UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH SUMATRA.
- Author
-
Fardiansyah, Riko and Jamalullail
- Subjects
ORGANIZATIONAL communication ,LEADERSHIP ,UNCERTAINTY ,DATA analysis - Abstract
The purpose of this study was to understand the communication patterns of leaders at the Faculty of Economics in responding to information uncertainty at the University of South Sumatra, and to find out the driving and inhibiting factors. The phenomenon of the transfer of leadership from one group of actors to another is a big enough problem, that between the Dean and subordinates in terms of organizational structure, there is no one-unit relationship within the organization. Types of qualitative research. The number of informants was 6 people, using a purposive sampling technique. The data collection tool is interview. Data analysis techniques according to iMiles and Huberman. This research uses Weick's organizational communication theory with 3 dimensions namely, Enactment, Selection, and Retention. The results of the study, (1) Enactment, show that communication between leaders and subordinates in informing campus policies is not optimal with the presence of miss communication, the delivery of information is still to certain members (2) Selection, showing the dean is not optimal in providing clarity of information so that the information received is less relevant to the task being performed. (3) Retention, that everyone working at the University of South Sumatra already has their respective duties and structures within the organization. Obstacle factors occur in the Faculty of Management organization such as miscommunication, bad weather causing difficulties to communicate from long distances. Besides that, things to support are the policies and work programs of the Dean so that he has the right to manage his subordinates, the facilities are given by the foundation, and a salary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Uncertainty drives exploration of negative information across younger and older adults.
- Author
-
Yagi, Ayano, FitzGibbon, Lily, Murayama, Kou, Shinomori, Keizo, and Sakaki, Michiko
- Subjects
OLDER people ,SENSATION seeking ,PERSONALITY ,INFORMATION-seeking behavior - Abstract
Although individuals generally avoid negative information, recent research documents that they voluntarily explore negative information to resolve uncertainty. However, it remains unclear (a) whether uncertainty facilitates exploration similarly when exploration is expected to lead to negative, neutral, or positive information, and (b) whether older adults seek negative information to reduce uncertainty like younger adults do. This study addresses the two issues across four experimental studies (N = 407). The results indicate that individuals are more likely to expose themselves to negative information when uncertainty is high. In contrast, when information was expected to be neutral or positive, the uncertainty surrounding it did not significantly alter individuals' exploration behavior. Furthermore, we found that uncertainty increased the exploration of negative information in both older and younger adults. In addition, both younger and older adults chose to explore negative information to reduce uncertainty, even when there were positive or neutral alternatives. In contrast to the age-related similarities in these behavioral measures, older adults demonstrated reduced scores in questionnaires on sensation seeking and curiosity, relative to their counterparts who were younger. These results suggest that information uncertainty has a selective facilitation effect on exploration for negative information and that normal aging does not alter this tendency, despite age-related reductions in self-reported measures of personality traits relevant to information seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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