An Innovative Project Evaluation Technique Under Conditions of Information Uncertainty.

The paper examines the effectiveness and efficiency of innovative projects under conditions of uncertain information. It discusses classification of the classical types of economies and technological structures through human history; proposes a classification of uncertainty types; discusses the advantages and disadvantages of existing effectiveness and efficiency evaluation methods; and presents an algorithm of innovative strategy formation. Previous studies by the authors of the current paper [Okorokov et al., 2014] analyzed the drawbacks of effectiveness evaluation methods for existing innovative projects. The current study aims to develop the methodology for effectiveness evaluation of innovative projects in the circumstances of increasing amounts of information and uncertainty. For this purpose, the authors used a combination of real options and fuzzy sets approaches, which allowed them to take into account all the necessary information. This paper presents net present value fuzzy evaluation. The proposed technique was implemented in real medium- and large-sized industrial organizations in one of the most innovative regions of Russia -- Saint-Petersburg. The technique allows correction of the innovative projects as they are being implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]