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Significant progress has been made in cereal production in Bangladesh due to an agricultural policy environment that prioritizes the productivity of staple crops over fruit and vegetables (F&V). However, many smallholder farmers remain poorly connected to markets, which may lead to a limited supply response of F&V that can reduce opportunities for sufficient intake in neglected, consumer-facing, smaller retail markets. To address this issue, aggregation schemes have been conceived that collect and transport F&Vs on behalf of multiple farmers. Given the volume of horticultural produce produced and the reliance on developed transport infrastructure, aggregation schemes tend to supply wholesale and urban markets rather than underdeveloped rural and isolated markets. To this end, we investigated how a particular aggregation intervention ('Loop') could potentially improve the distribution of F&V to smaller markets whilst improving farmer benefits. We used an innovative system dynamics modeling approach based on Loop's aggregation services in Jashore, Bangladesh, and to identify the potential trade-offs between consumer outcomes in retail markets and farmer benefits. We find that combining aggregation with a quota at the smaller market, transport subsidy, and current price growth does not result in trade-offs between consumer purchases and farmers'benefits. However, combining aggregation with current price growth can increase demand without losing farmers'benefits. The findings emphasize that standalone and multiple market-oriented interventions generate broader win-win benefits to promote inclusive food systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional approaches for assessing supply chain vulnerability do not capture endogenous disruptions emanating from chain actors' decisions that might increase value chain vulnerability. These approaches adopt a reactive analytical explanation of vulnerability, rather than one that considers issues of feedback effects. To address this issue, this paper adopts a system dynamics modelling approach to identify the precursors of vulnerabilities in Ghana's cocoa value chain. The paper assesses the vulnerability levels of the cocoa value chain by adjusting the baseline values of several key parameters that can be influenced by chain actors. Results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that the precursors of vulnerability situated upstream of the cocoa value chain have varying impacts on chain vulnerability, but the same magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. However, precursors of vulnerability that are situated midstream of the cocoa value chain have an unequal magnitude of effect on the vulnerability levels of chain actors. Results suggest that policies governing cocoa trading can become countervailing factors that obstruct the government's call for upgrading along the cocoa value chain. The system dynamics model presented here enables a proactive assessment of vulnerability which can facilitate collaborative planning among stakeholders in the value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has highlighted the valuable contributions that participatory processes contribute in developing system dynamics models of value chains with stakeholders. A new participatory process known as spatial group model building (SGMB) expands these insights, using maps and GIS concepts to improve the facilitation and modelling process. This practical note provides an overview of SGMB, its recent applications in informing development interventions, and proposed innovations to expand its use and dissemination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving inclusive value chain development is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of interconnected value chains and their social, economic, and ecological dimensions. While many policies and intervention options exist to upgrade value chains, there are fewer methods that can be used to understand and quantify the multidimensional impacts that value chain policies and interventions may have throughout the value chain. This paper addresses this methodological gap by employing a system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. SD models allow us to model and quantify the processes and relationships inherent in the value chain through simulations, serving as a policy laboratory for the empirical assessment of intervention options. An SD model of the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua was developed and tested through a participatory modeling process. Our research tested and evaluated the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of specific interventions and policies in the Matiguás dairy value chain with the goal of strengthening the competitiveness and inclusion of small- and medium-scale producers. These interventions centered on improving the feeding system, which was identified by stakeholders as the critical constraint to competitiveness. The policy analysis reveals that both improved pastures and increased use of concentrates raise producer milk productivity by 5% and 11%, respectively in the long run, but are also expensive strategies for smallholder producers, leading to a reduction in profits relative to the baseline by 1% and 3%, respectively. Consequently, policymakers should identify strategies that help to reduce concentrate costs and support producers with investments in improved pasture, while also promoting training in pasture management skills. Indeed, in the long-run, model results reveal that investment and training in pasture management results in a 30% and 35% increase in milk production during the wet and dry season, respectively. Simulation results further highlighted that intensifying the feeding system to improve cow milk yields is mainly profitable in the long term, and thus requires a longer-term perspective by policymakers. The model provides a deeper understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of the Matiguás dairy value chain and the interactions between markets, coordination aspects, biophysical phenomena, and income. The system dynamics approach to value chain analysis further addresses a major analytical shortcoming in value chain analysis and provides decision makers with an improved platform for planning and policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Coast Fever (ECF) is the most economically important production disease among traditional beef cattle farmers in Zambia. Despite the disease control efforts by the government, donors, and farmers, ECF cases are increasing. Why does ECF oscillate over time? Can alternative approaches such as systems thinking contribute solutions to the complex ECF problem, avoid unintended consequences, and achieve sustainable results? To answer these research questions and inform the design and implementation of ECF interventions, we qualitatively investigated the influence of dynamic socio-economic, cultural, and ecological factors. We used system dynamics modelling to specify these dynamics qualitatively, and an innovative participatory framework called spatial group model building (SGMB). SGMB uses participatory geographical information system (GIS) concepts and techniques to capture the role of spatial phenomenon in the context of complex systems, allowing stakeholders to identify spatial phenomenon directly on physical maps and integrate such information in model development. Our SGMB process convened focus groups of beef value chain stakeholders in two distinct production systems. The focus groups helped to jointly construct a series of interrelated system dynamics models that described ECF in a broader systems context. Thus, a complementary objective of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of system dynamics modelling and SGMB in animal health. The SGMB process revealed policy leverage points in the beef cattle value chain that could be targeted to improve ECF control. For example, policies that develop sustainable and stable cattle markets and improve household income availability may have positive feedback effects on investment in animal health. The results obtained from a SGMB process also demonstrated that a “one-size-fits-all” approach may not be equally effective in policing ECF in different agro-ecological zones due to the complex interactions of socio-ecological context with important, and often ignored, spatial patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have never been healthier, wealthier or more numerous. Yet, present success may be at the cost of future prosperity and in some places, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, poverty persists. Livestock keepers, especially pastoralists, are over-represented among the poor. Poverty has been mainly attributed to a lack of access, whether to goods, education or enabling institutions. More recent insights suggest ecosystems may influence poverty and the self-reinforcing mechanisms that constitute poverty traps in more subtle ways. The plausibility of zoonoses as poverty traps is strengthened by landmark studies on disease burden in recent years. While in theory, endemic zoonoses are best controlled in the animal host, in practice, communities are often left to manage disease themselves, with the focus on treatment rather than prevention. We illustrate this with results from a survey on health costs in a pastoral ecosystem. Epidemic zoonoses are more likely to elicit official responses, but these can have unintended consequences that deepen poverty traps. In this context, a systems understanding of disease control can lead to more effective and pro-poor disease management. We illustrate this with an example of how a system dynamics model can help optimize responses to Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Kenya by giving decision makers real-time access to the costs of the delay in vaccinating. In conclusion, a broader, more ecological understanding of poverty and of the appropriate responses to the diseases of poverty can contribute to improved livelihoods for livestock keepers in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A complex set of factors affect the production and sale of livestock in Somaliland, including feed supply, diseases, and demand, among others. This study constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions to address inherent constraints. Findings indicate that Somaliland incurs high economic losses due to occasional animal export bans associated with Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks (up to 12% of GDP) and lack of pasture during droughts, given the lack of effort by producers to balance their flock sizes with stocking capacity. Under the baseline conditions, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor as the stocking rate is centered and stagnated at about 2.54 million TLUs, and a decline is projected in the long run. In contrast, the adoption of optimization of animal herd sizes in order to balance feed demand with supply could (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity, boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals and also lead to improved rangeland conditions, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. • The small ruminants' production and marketing sector, - which is the mainstay of the economy and livelihoods in Somaliland – entails a pretty complex value chain with livestock serving multiple functions for the pastoralist keepers; long marketing chains with many nodes and transactions; support services and inputs that feature intricate technologies; and production and marketing systems that are dynamic and involve feedbacks and delays. This complexity renders evaluation of potential of short- and long-term impacts of interventions challenging thus undermining efficiency in decision making by policy makers. • This study uses system dynamics (SD) - an innovative way of analysing potential impacts of interventions and policies in complex systems - to construct a model of small ruminants' production and marketing in Somaliland. To demonstrate how the new tool can be used, the study uses the model to analyse the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions (including widespread adoption of flock size management to balance feed demand and supply; and adoption of vaccination to mitigate the risk of animal export bans due Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks) to address inherent constraints in the value chain. • Results show that without adoption of improved practices, prospects for growth of the small ruminants' sector are poor, and a decline is projected in the long-run due to erosion in stocking capacity. The sector incurs heavy losses due to occasional mass death of animals when drought occurs. Optimization of flock sizes to balance feed demand with supply can (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity - boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals; while reducing pastureland degradation, thus, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity. Results also show that losses due to animal export bans occasioned by RVF outbreaks sometimes totals up to 12% of the GDP and can be up to 16 times the cost of keeping entire flocks vaccinated against the disease. • As failure to consider complexities when evaluating potential interventions in agricultural systems can lead to flawed or unsustainable policy recommendations, the SD model developed for Somaliland presents a way of dealing with the complexity in the Somaliland's livestock value chain when analysing impacts of interventions and policies. Results from the model also demonstrates a need for identification and adoption of interventions that can reverse the declining trend in stocking capacity and / or enable people to diversify their sources of livelihoods as a coping strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and mediumscale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD) approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB) technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Market access for African livestock products has long been stymied by a variety of animal diseases endemic in the region. The concept of commodity-based trade (CBT) has been advanced to make trade dependent on process-related attributes of production that ensure freedom from disease rather than the geographical origin of the animals themselves. This article looks at the potential of CBT in improving market access for beef from communal areas of Namibia, which have historically been excluded from high-value export markets. Model results suggest only modest gains from CBT, given the substantial costs of compliance with SPS and quality standards required for high-value markets. Regional markets may still offer the best option for beef exports from these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various methodologies have been used to model the epidemiology and economics of aquatic diseases, including input-output models, benefit-cost analysis, linear programming, compartment models based on differential equations, and spatial models. Despite the virtues of each of these models, there is a need to develop a more integrated approach to the epidemiology and economics of disease that better represents and captures existing feedback mechanisms that can influence the success of disease control interventions and their cost-effectiveness. In this paper, we motivate the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling in the context of sea lice control in Norwegian farmed salmon. Separate models of sea lice and salmon growth were designed and integrated to capture the feedbacks between them. Different simulation scenarios highlight the benefits of the approach. Model results indicated that changing the timing and type of treatment vis-à-vis current practices can markedly reduce sea lice infection pressures; such simulated practices are also more cost effective. Our approach further highlights how delays and feedbacks present in these systems influence the success of any disease control protocol, and demonstrates the utility that SD models can play in aquatic health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Myanmar has made rapid economic progress since the country began its transition to a more integrated market economy in the late 2000s. Although these gains are led by positive developments in the agricultural sector, agricultural productivity and profitability are among the lowest in Asia with high rates of poverty especially in rural areas. Small-scale farms dominate rural livelihoods in Myanmar, especially for the 87% of Myanmar's poor who live in rural areas. Hence, these small-scale farms are critical development leverage points as they are an important source of rural incomes to both farm and non-farm households. This study is part of a larger, five-year agricultural research and development project intended to upgrade pork and rice value chains and strengthen rural livelihoods in southern Myanmar's Tanintharyi Region. We evaluated producer-focused interventions to upgrade the pork value chain using tools that consider the dynamic and complex nature of the chain. This research used systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of the pork value chain in southern Myanmar. The model integrated modules of animal production, marketing, investment, finance, and collective action. Scenario analysis with the model guided recommendations for pro-poor interventions for implementation within the five-year development project. Simulation results indicated that a mix of technical interventions implemented by functional producer groups showed promise in delivering sustained financial benefits to the target community and outperformed the short-term gains generated by these interventions in the absence of collective action. The model also highlighted specific interventions, such as improved financial services, animal health workers, and training that enabled poorer households to benefit from pig livelihoods while reducing risks from environmental and economic shocks. Within complex agri-food systems such as the pork value chain in Tanintharyi, a multi-pronged intervention strategy is recommended to address problems faced by small-scale agribusiness value chain participants. Development interventions tend to be implemented in complex environments, often with scarce data to inform decision-making. This research shows how system dynamics tools and spatial group model building processes could help overcome these inherent challenges by creating virtual laboratories where plausible project interventions can be tested and modified, bringing increased confidence to implementation choices. [Display omitted] • Pig production is an important livelihood activity among small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but pork value chains are weak. • We applied systems thinking and participatory methods to develop a system dynamics model of a local pork value chain. • Of the interventions assessed, financial services, animal health workers, and training were most beneficial to pig farmers. • A combination of interventions managed by producer groups showed promise in sustaining financial benefits to smallholders. • System dynamics tools provide a cost-effective way of evaluating, ex-ante, interventions in complex agri-food value chains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are 'win-win-win' for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. We find that 'win-win-win' futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify 'win-win-win' futures for all. [Display omitted] • It is increasingly acknowledged that food system interventions must benefit both producers and consumers • We develop a systems tool to explore trade-offs emerging from adapting value chain interventions to become more consumer-sensitive • Futures with improved local vegetable delivery, producer profits and intervention costs are traced to their causal dynamics • 'Win-win-wins' require improved local retail demands to attract farmers away from urban markets without weakening profits • Systems-based approaches can horizon-scan plausible futures that navigate complex trade-offs in agricultural value chains [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The liberalization of beef exports in Botswana is hotly debated among policy makers and relevant value chain actors. While some policy makers argue that such a move might increase prices for producers and make beef unaffordable for consumers, others suggest an open market would reduce the profitability of the beef sector in Botswana. At the same time, these impacts will be mediated by the presence of animal disease and the availability of sufficient feed and water. In this paper, we constructed an integrated system dynamics (SD) model that captures the feedbacks between the biological dynamics of cattle production, the economics of animal and meat marketing and trade, and the impacts that environmental pressures such as rainfall and animal disease have on the system. We used this model to run a series of scenarios associated with market liberalization and animal health shocks to quantify their impacts throughout the value chain, taking into account the feedbacks between biology, markets, and environment on the value chain itself. This approach allows for a holistic evaluation of policy options on different chain actors and whole chain performance, and provides a knowledge base for prioritizing interventions. Model results suggested that although disease control policies benefit all value chain actors, gains from market liberalization come at the expense of substantial losses to Botswana Meat Commission (BMC) and its contracted feedlots. They also suggest that combining market liberalization policy reforms with better animal disease controls greatly improved the financial performance of all value chain actors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the ex-ante impacts of on-farm diversification and forward integration strategies on agricultural value chain resilience, with an empirical focus on Ghana's cocoa value chain. System dynamics modelling was used to explore five scenarios involving variable-input on-farm diversification pursued by cocoa farmers in Ghana and the simultaneous adoption of forward integration strategies by Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire. An adaptive strategy involving the simultaneous pursuit of variable-input on-farm diversification and a cooperative forward integration strategy by both Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire was found to result in the highest level of resilience. Under such an adaptive strategy, in-country processors will be the most impacted when the level of safety stocks are below 25% of the average stock level during the period of losses in raw material production. The findings suggest that a policy direction that supports on-farm diversification and in-country processing enhances the aggregate resilience of the cocoa value chain, irrespective of the forward integration strategy adopted by Cote d'Ivoire. • On-farm diversification improves the resilience of the cocoa value chain. • A complementarity exists between diversification and forward integration strategy. • Ghana's cocoa value chain is resilient when in-country processing levels increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]