1. Diagnostic prediction models for CT-confirmed and bacterial rhinosinusitis in primary care: individual participant data meta-analysis.
- Author
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Takada T, Hoogland J, Hansen JG, Lindbaek M, Autio T, Alho OP, Ebell MH, Reitsma JB, and Venekamp RP
- Subjects
- Acute Disease, Adult, Anti-Bacterial Agents therapeutic use, C-Reactive Protein, Humans, Primary Health Care, Tomography, X-Ray Computed, Rhinitis diagnostic imaging, Rhinitis drug therapy, Sinusitis diagnostic imaging, Sinusitis drug therapy
- Abstract
Background: Antibiotics are overused in patients with acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) as it is difficult to identify those who benefit from antibiotic treatment., Aim: To develop prediction models for computed tomography (CT)-confirmed ARS and culture-confirmed acute bacterial rhinosinusitis (ABRS) in adults presenting to primary care with symptoms suggestive of ARS., Design and Setting: This was a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis., Method: CT-confirmed ARS was defined as the presence of fluid level or total opacification in any maxillary sinuses, whereas culture-confirmed ABRS was defined by culture of fluid from antral puncture. Prediction models were derived using logistic regression modelling., Results: Among 426 patients from three studies, 140 patients (32.9%) had CT-confirmed ARS. A model consisting of seven variables: previous diagnosis of ARS, preceding upper respiratory tract infection, anosmia, double sickening, purulent nasal discharge on examination, need for antibiotics as judged by a physician, and C-reactive protein (CRP) showed an optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69 to 0.78) and a calibration slope of 0.99 (95% CI = 0.72 to 1.19). Among 225 patients from two studies, 68 patients (30.2%) had culture-confirmed ABRS. A model consisting of three variables: pain in teeth, purulent nasal discharge, and CRP showed an optimism-corrected c-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.77) and a calibration slope of 1.00 (95% CI = 0.66 to 1.52). Clinical utility analysis showed that both models could be useful to rule out the target condition., Conclusion: Simple prediction models for CT-confirmed ARS and culture-confirmed ABRS can be useful to safely reduce antibiotic use in adults with ARS in high-prescribing countries., (© The Authors.)
- Published
- 2022
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