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The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northeast Water Polynya is a significant annually recurring summertime Arctic polynya, located off the coast of Northeast Greenland. It is important for marine wildlife and affects local atmospheric and oceanic processes. In this study, over 40 years of observational and reanalysis products (ERA5 and ORAS5) are analyzed to characterize the polynya's climatology and ascertain forcing mechanisms. The Northeast Water Polynya has high spatiotemporal variability; its location, size and structure vary interannually, and the period for which it is open is changing. We show this variability is largely driven by atmospheric forcing. The polynya extent is determined by the direction of the near‐surface flow regime, and the relative locations of high and low sea‐level pressure centers over the region. The surface conditions also impact the oceanic water column, which has a strong seasonal cycle in potential temperature and salinity, the amplitude of which decreases with depth. The ocean reanalyses also show a significant warming trend at all depths and a freshening near the surface consistent with greater ice melt, but salinification at lower depths (∼200 m). As the Arctic region changes due to anthropogenic forcing, the sea‐ice edge is migrating northwards and the Northeast Water Polynya is generally opening earlier and closing later in the year. This could have significant implications for both the atmosphere and ocean in this complex and rapidly changing environment. Plain Language Summary: Polynya's are areas of open water surrounded by sea ice. These features are important for marine wildlife and can impact how the atmosphere and ocean interact. The Northeast Water Polynya is one example from the Arctic. Each summer, it appears off the coast of Northeast Greenland. In this research we use data from the last 40 years to study this polynya. We find that its location, size and structure varies from year to year. The period for which it is open each year also changes. We conclude that these differences are due to changes in the wind direction near the surface. Winds that flow from south to north over the region are linked to a larger polynya. Winds that flow from north to south are linked to a smaller polynya. With climate change, the Northeast Water Polynya is opening earlier and closing later in the year. In the future, this polynya may no longer form as it does now, which will impact the local environment and wildlife. Key Points: A climatological study of the Northeast Water Polynya reveals spatial, interannual and decadal variabilityThe summertime polynya extent closely correlates to near‐surface winds, largely dictated by the orientation of the pressure gradient across Fram StraitBetween 1980 and 2022, the duration of the Northeast Water Polynya, and associated oceanic warming, increased [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass through glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. This mass loss is linked with variations in submarine melt, yet existing ocean models are either coarse global simulations focused on decadal‐scale variability or fine‐scale simulations for process‐based investigations. Here, we unite these scales with a framework to downscale from a global state estimate (15 km) into a regional model (3 km) that resolves circulation on the continental shelf. We further downscale into a fjord‐scale model (500 m) that resolves circulation inside fjords and quantifies melt. We demonstrate this approach in Scoresby Sund, East Greenland, and find that interannual variations in submarine melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier induced by ocean temperature variability are consistent with the decadal changes in glacier ice dynamics. This study provides a framework by which coarse‐resolution models can be refined to quantify glacier submarine melt for future ice sheet projections. Plain Language Summary: Over the past several decades, the Greenland ice sheet has been losing ice and contributing to sea‐level rise. About half of this ice loss is induced by melt that occurs where glaciers meet the ocean. Using coarse‐scale ocean models that simulate circulation around the globe, previous studies have noted a strong link between ocean temperature and enhanced glacier ice loss. However, due to the small scale of Greenland's fjords, coarse models are unable to directly quantify circulation in these fjords and melt on submerged glaciers. In this study, we develop a new framework to "zoom in" on a fjord, using high‐resolution models driven by larger coarse‐resolution models. In this approach, we simulate melt on one of Greenland's biggest glaciers and find that periods of higher melt coincide with more ice loss as observed from satellites. Since this framework is adaptable to other regions, it could also be used to simulate melt on other glaciers and support estimates of future sea‐level rise. Key Points: Subsurface temperature variability is simulated in a narrow fjord network using regional models downscaled from a global state estimateModeled increases in ocean melt at Daugaard‐Jensen glacier coincide with the onset of acceleration in 2005 and retreat and thinning in 2011Model variations in shelf‐to‐fjord ocean properties match with observations, providing a basis to estimate ocean forcing in ice projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial fjords often contain ice mélange, a frozen conglomeration of icebergs, brash ice, and sea ice, that have been postulated to influence both glacier dynamics and fjord circulation through coupled mechanical and thermodynamic processes. Ice mélange meltwater can alter stratification of the water column by releasing cool, fresh water across a range of depths in the upper layer of the fjord. This meltwater input can subsequently modify the depth at which the subglacial discharge plume reaches neutral buoyancy and therefore the underlying buoyancy-driven fjord circulation and heat exchange with warm ocean shelf waters. Despite a spate of recent modelling studies exploring these proposed feedbacks, we lack in situ observations quantifying changes to the water column induced by ice mélange meltwater. Here we use a novel dataset collected before and after the melt, breakup, and down-fjord transport of an ephemeral ice mélange in front of Kangilliup Sermia (Rink Isbræ) to directly investigate the extent to which ice mélange meltwater can modify glacier-adjacent water properties. We find that even a short-lived ice mélange (4 days) can cause substantial cooling (0.18 °C) and freshening (0.25 g kg-1) of the water column that leads to stratification change down to the depth of the outflowing discharge plume. We compare our observations to an adjacent fjord, Kangerlussuup Sermia, where ice mélange seldom forms in the summertime, and show that the presence or absence of ice mélange melt creates fundamental differences in their upper layer hydrography. These observations provide critical constraints for recent modelling studies that have suggested ice mélange meltwater needs to be included in ocean circulation models for glaciers with deep grounding lines and high ice fluxes, which are precisely the glaciers exhibiting the largest magnitude terminus retreats at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ice sheet-ocean models are increasingly being developed and applied to important questions pertaining to processes at the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet margins, which play a pivotal role in ice sheet stability and sea level rise projections. One of the challenges of such coupled modelling activities is the timescale discrepancy between ice and ocean dynamics. This discrepancy, combined with the high computational cost of ocean models due to their finer temporal resolution, limits the time frame that can be modeled. In this study, we introduce an "accelerated forcing" approach to address the timescale discrepancy and thus improve computational efficiency in a framework designed to couple evolving ice geometry to ice shelf cavity circulation. This approach is based on the assumption that the ocean adjusts faster to imposed changes than the ice sheet, with the ocean viewed as being in a slowly varying quasi-steady state over timescales of ice geometry change. By assuming that the ocean-induced ice draft change rate during one coupling interval can be reflected by a quasi-steady state change rate during a shortened coupling interval (equal to the regular coupling interval divided by a constant factor), we can reduce the ocean model simulation duration. We first demonstrate that the mean cavity residence time, derived from stand-alone ocean simulations, can guide the selection of suitable scenarios for this approach. We then evaluate the accelerated forcing approach by comparing basal melting response under the accelerated forcing with that under the regular forcing based on idealized coupled ice sheet ocean experiments. Our results suggest that: the accelerated approach can yield comparable melting responses to those under the regular forcing when the model is subjected to steady far-field ocean conditions or time-varying conditions with timescales much shorter than the cavity residence time. However, it is not suitable when the timescale of the accelerated ocean conditions is not significantly different from the cavity residence time. When used carefully, the accelerated approach can be a useful tool in coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite radar interferometry data reveals that the grounding line of Petermann Glacier, Greenland migrates by several kilometers during the tidal cycle, bringing pressurized, subsurface, warm ocean waters in regular contact with a large sector of grounded ice. We use the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model in two dimensions to calculate the ice melt rates as a function of grounding zone (GZ) length and ocean Thermal Forcing (TF). Ice melt rates are found to be higher in the GZ cavity than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity. The melt rates increase sub‐linearly with the length of the GZ and ocean TF. The model results agree well with remote sensing estimates of ice melt. High basal ice melt rates in tidally flushed grounding zones imply that marine‐terminating glaciers are more sensitive to ocean TF than anticipated, which will increase their projected contribution to sea level rise. Plain Language Summary: The traditional view of ice melting in contact with ocean waters is that melt rates drop to zero at the grounding line, which is a semi‐fixed boundary at the junction between grounded ice and the ocean. In reality, the grounding line migrates by kilometers during the tidal cycle, more than 10 times beyond the range expected from hydrostatic equilibrium, which brings warm, saline water in rapid contact with broad sectors of grounded ice. We use an ocean model to calculate the melt rates caused by seawater intrusions. We find that the melt rates in the GZ are higher than anywhere else in the ice shelf cavity and increase as the GZ becomes wider and the ocean gets warmer. Ice melt in kilometer‐size grounding zones will reduce the basal resistance to flow and will increase the sensitivity of the glacier flow to ocean warming, hence projections of sea level rise from the glacier will go up. Key Points: First modeling of ice melt rates from seawater intrusions in the kilometer‐size grounding zone (GZ) of Petermann Glacier using an ocean modelModeled melt rates are highest in the GZ and increase linearly with GZ width and ocean thermal forcingHigh melt rates in kilometer‐size grounding zones imply a higher sensitivity of glaciers to ocean warming than anticipated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The glaciers of North Greenland are hosting enough ice to raise sea level by 2.1 m, and have long considered to be stable. This part of Greenland is buttressed by the last remaining ice shelves of the ice sheet. Here, we show that since 1978, ice shelves in North Greenland have lost more than 35% of their total volume, three of them collapsing completely. For the floating ice shelves that remain we observe a widespread increase in ice shelf mass losses, that are dominated by enhanced basal melting rates. Between 2000 and 2020, there was a widespread increase in basal melt rates that closely follows a rise in the ocean temperature. These glaciers are showing a direct dynamical response to ice shelf changes with retreating grounding lines and increased ice discharge. These results suggest that, under future projections of ocean thermal forcing, basal melting rates will continue to rise or remain at high level, which may have dramatic consequences for the stability of Greenlandic glaciers. North Greenland ice shelves have lost more than a third of their masses, thinning dramatically from below due to increased ocean temperatures. In response, grounding lines have retreated and the amount of ice discharged into the ocean has increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For better projections of sea level rise, two things are needed: an improved understanding of the contributing processes and their accurate representation in climate models. A major process is basal melting of ice shelves and glacier tongues by the ocean, which reduces ice sheet stability and increases ice discharge into the ocean. We study marine melting of Greenland's largest floating ice tongue, the 79° North Glacier, using a high‐resolution, 2D‐vertical ocean model. While our fjord model is idealized, the results agree with observations of melt rate and overturning strength. Our setup is the first application of adaptive vertical coordinates to an ice cavity. Their stratification‐zooming allows a vertical resolution finer than 1 m in the entrainment layer of the meltwater plume, which is important for the plume development. We find that the plume development is dominated by entrainment only initially. In the stratified upper part of the cavity, the subglacial plume shows continuous detrainment. It reaches neutral buoyancy near 100 m depth, detaches from the ice, and transports meltwater out of the fjord. Melting almost stops there. In a sensitivity study, we show that the detachment depth depends primarily on stratification. Our results contribute to the understanding of ice–ocean interactions in glacier cavities. Furthermore, we suggest that our modeling approach with stratification‐zooming coordinates will improve the representation of these interactions in global ocean models. Finally, our idealized model topography and forcing are close to a real fjord and completely defined analytically, making the setup an interesting reference case for future model developments. Plain Language Summary: The global increase of sea levels is a consequence of human‐induced climate change. It presents a threat to coastal regions and demands action to protect human life and infrastructure near the coast. Planning protective measures requires projections of sea level rise, computed with climate models. We present an approach to improve the simulation of an important contributor to sea level rise: melting of floating ice shelves by ocean circulation. Our modeling approach uses a vertical model grid that evolves over time. The temporal evolution depends on the density structure of the ocean. Large density differences appear just below an ice shelf, where fresh meltwater mixes with salty seawater. The adaptive grid of our model resolves this mixing process in great detail. This is important for an accurate computation of the melt rate and enables us to study in depth the ice shelf–ocean interactions. We study them at the glacier tongue of the 79° North Glacier, which is Greenland's largest ice shelf. The physical understanding gained from our simulations is also applicable to other floating glacier tongues and ice shelves. We suggest that using the presented model technique in global ocean models can improve projections of melting and sea level rise. Key Points: Melting of the 79° North Glacier ice tongue by turbulent ocean currents is studied with an idealized 2D‐vertical fjord modelThe subglacial plume behaves like an entraining plume close to the grounding line and like a detraining gravity current further downstreamA vertical resolution finer than 1 m is achieved in the subglacial plume by using adaptive vertical coordinates that zoom to stratification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the ocean waters surrounding Greenland plays a major role in driving glacier retreat and the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise. The melt rate at the junction of the ocean with grounded ice—or grounding line—is, however, not well known. Here, we employ a time series of satellite radar interferometry data from the German TanDEM-X mission, the Italian COSMO-SkyMed constellation, and the Finnish ICEYE constellation to document the grounding line migration and basal melt rates of Petermann Glacier, a major marine-based glacier of Northwest Greenland. We find that the grounding line migrates at tidal frequencies over a kilometer-wide (2 to 6 km) grounding zone, which is one order of magnitude larger than expected for grounding lines on a rigid bed. The highest ice shelf melt rates are recorded within the grounding zone with values from 60 ± 13 to 80 ± 15 m/y along laterally confined channels. As the grounding line retreated by 3.8 km in 2016 to 2022, it carved a cavity about 204 m in height where melt rates increased from 40 ± 11 m/y in 2016 to 2019 to 60 ± 15 m/y in 2020 to 2021. In 2022, the cavity remained open during the entire tidal cycle. Such high melt rates concentrated in kilometer-wide grounding zones contrast with the traditional plume model of grounding line melt which predicts zero melt. High rates of simulated basal melting in grounded glacier ice in numerical models will increase the glacier sensitivity to ocean warming and potentially double projections of sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We mapped the terminus position for every marine‐terminating glacier in the Northern Hemisphere for 2000, 2010, and 2020, including the Greenland Ice Sheet, to provide the first complete measure of their variability. In total, these 1,704 glaciers lost an average of 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 a−1 (total 7,527 ± 31 km2) from 2000 to 2020 with 123 glaciers becoming no longer marine‐terminating over this period. Overall, 85.3% of glaciers retreated, 2.5% advanced, and the remaining 12.3% did not change outside of uncertainty limits. Outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet are responsible for 61.9% of total area loss, although their rate of retreat was 34% less in 2010–2020 than 2000–2010. Glaciers with the largest area loss terminate in ice shelves or ice tongues, are surge‐type, have an unstable basal geometry, or have an unusually wide calving margin. Plain Language Summary: North of the equator, 1,704 glaciers touched the ocean in 2000. Here, we present the first analysis to document the frontal position of every one of these glaciers in 2000, 2010, and 2020. We found that 85.3% retreated and are now reduced in area. Only 2.5% of glaciers advanced or increased in area. The remaining 12.3% did not change within uncertainty limits. Total area losses were 389.7 ± 1.6 km2 per year (total 7,527 ± 31 km2) over the 20‐year period. Glaciers flowing from the Greenland Ice Sheet accounted for over 60% of total area losses. We found wide variations in the response of glaciers to similar changes in air and ocean temperature and sea ice concentrations, showing that environmental conditions alone cannot explain why some glaciers retreated more than others. Instead, unique glacier characteristics are the most important factor in controlling the variability of terminus retreat. Glaciers with floating ice at their front (ice shelves or ice tongues), those that undergo periodic changes in their flow velocity (surges), those which have a weak connection to their beds, and glaciers that are unusually wide, experienced the largest area loss from 2000 to 2020. Key Points: There were 1704 marine‐terminating glaciers in 2000 in the Northern Hemisphere, of which 85.3% retreated and 2.5% advanced from 2000 to 2020Tidewater glaciers lost a total area of 7,527 ± 31 km2 from 2000 to 2020, with the Greenland Ice Sheet responsible for 61.9% of total lossesVariations in retreat are best explained by glacier characteristics: ice shelves/tongues, surging, basal geometry, and calving width [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last deglaciation offers an unique opportunity to understand the climate–ice-sheet interactions in a global warming context. In this paper, to tackle this question, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity coupled to an ice sheet model covering the Northern Hemisphere to simulate the last deglaciation and the Holocene (26–0 ka). We use a synchronous coupling every year between the ice sheet and the rest of the climate system and we ensure a closed water cycle considering the release of freshwater flux to the ocean due to ice sheet melting. Our reference experiment displays a gradual warming in response to the forcings, with no abrupt changes. In this case, while the amplitude of the freshwater flux to the ocean induced by ice sheet retreat is realistic, it is sufficient to shut down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation from which the model does not recover within the time period simulated. However, with reduced freshwater flux we are nonetheless able to obtain different oceanic circulation evolutions, including some abrupt transitions between shut-down and active circulation states in the course of the deglaciation. The inclusion of a parameterisation for the sinking of brines around Antarctica also produces an abrupt recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, absent in the reference experiment. The fast oceanic circulation recoveries lead to abrupt warming phases in Greenland. Our simulated ice sheet geometry evolution is in overall good agreement with available global reconstructions, even though the abrupt sea level rise at 14.6 ka is underestimated, possibly because the climate model underestimates the millennial-scale temperature variability. In the course of the deglaciation, large-scale grounding line instabilities are simulated both for the Eurasian and North American ice sheets. The first instability occurs in the Barents–Kara seas for the Eurasian ice sheet at 14.5 ka. A second grounding line instability occurs ca. 12 ka in the proglacial lake that formed at the southern margin of the North American ice sheet. With additional asynchronously coupled experiments, we assess the sensitivity of our results to different ice sheet model choices related to surface and sub-shelf mass balance, ice deformation and grounding line representation. While the ice sheet evolutions differ within this ensemble, the global climate trajectory is only weakly affected by these choices. In our experiments, only the abrupt shifts in the oceanic circulation due to freshwater fluxes are able to produce some millennial-scale variability since no self-generating abrupt transitions are simulated without these fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circum-Arctic glacial ice is melting in an unprecedented mode, and release of currently trapped geological methane may act as a positive feedback on ice-sheet retreat during global warming. Evidence for methane release during the penultimate (Eemian, ca. 125 ka) interglacial, a period with less glacial sea ice and higher temperatures than today, is currently absent. Here, we argue that based on foraminiferal isotope studies on drill holes from offshore Svalbard, Norway, methane leakage occurred upon the abrupt Eurasian ice-sheet wastage during terminations of the last (Weichselian) and penultimate (Saalian) glaciations. Progressive increase of methane emissions seems to be first recorded by depleted benthic foraminiferal d13C. This is quickly followed by the precipitation of methane-derived authigenic carbonate as overgrowth inside and outside foraminiferal shells, characterized by heavy d18O and depleted d13C of both benthic and planktonic foraminifera. The similarities between the events observed over both terminations advocate for a common driver for the episodic release of geological methane stocks. Our favored model is recurrent leakage of shallow gas reservoirs below the gas hydrate stability zone along the margin of western Svalbard that can be reactivated upon initial instability of the grounded, marine-based ice sheets. Analogous to this model, with the current acceleration of the Greenland ice melt, instabilities of existing methane reservoirs below and nearby the ice sheet are likely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Glacial iceberg versus deglacial meltwater plume discharge in the Labrador Sea. • Enhanced Irminger Current may have affected ice sheet retreat. • A polynya probably occurred south of Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum. The study of the history of ice sheet retreat provides important insights into the interaction between ice sheets and oceans, especially under a sustained warming climate. The decay of ice sheets may affect the surrounding ocean environment, and changes in sea surface conditions can, in turn, affect the ice sheet stability. However, interactions between ice sheet dynamics and sea surface characteristics are still not fully understood. Here, we show sedimentary records from the eastern Labrador Sea, proximal to the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). These records span the last 50 ka, i.e., the last glacial-deglacial-Holocene period. The XRF, biomarker, and planktic/benthic foraminifer data document the collapse of the LIS/iceberg discharge during Heinrich Events (i.e., HE5, HE4, HE2, and HE1) and the occurrence of meltwater plumes from the GrIS and the LIS during the last deglaciation. Such meltwater discharges have caused surface freshening in the Labrador Sea and, consequently, decreased sea surface temperatures and open-water phytoplankton productivity. Enhanced Irminger Current inflow might have caused (sub-)surface warming in the Labrador Sea and triggered the retreat of ice sheets/meltwater discharge. In contrast to relatively low primary production during the glacial period, the Last Glacial Maximum was characterized by increased sea ice algae and phytoplankton production, suggesting the presence of a polynya in front of the southern GrIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past four decades significant decrease in Arctic sea ice and a dramatic ice mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been coincident with global warming and an increase in atmospheric CO2. In Northeast Greenland significant mass loss from the outlet glaciers Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79NG) and Zachariæ Isstrøm (ZI) and intensive seasonal breakup of the local Norske Øer Ice Barrier (NØIB) have also been observed since 2000. In order to better understand the processes driving these modern changes, studies of paleoclimate records are important and of major societal relevance. A multiproxy study including organic‐biogeochemical and micropaleontological proxies was carried out on a marine sediment core recovered directly in front of 79NG. Data from Core PS100/270 evidenced a strong inflow of warm recirculating Atlantic Water across the Northeast Greenland shelf from the early Holocene between ~10 and 7.5 ka. An overall high in phytoplankton productivity occurred within a stable sea ice margin regime, accompanied by 79NG retreat most probably triggered by peak solar insolation and changes in the local ocean circulation. Enhanced basal melt of the underside of 79NG at ~7.5 ka then led to the total disintegration of the ice shelf. The released freshwater would have driven water column stratification and promoted the formation of the local landfast ice barrier, which is shown by lowered biomarker values and foraminifera abundances toward the end of the early Holocene. Near perennial sea ice conditions with short summers and 79NG retreat to the inner fjord then prevailed from ~7.5 to ~0.8 ka. Key Points: Multiproxy record allowed reconstruction of NEG ice sheet retreat and sea ice history from the last deglaciation to the late HoloceneIncreased inflow of warm recirculating Atlantic Water linked to retreat and disintegration of the 79NG between 10 and 7.5 kaExtended to even perennial sea ice conditions were predominant on the inner NE Greenland shelf since 7.5 ka [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides the first documentation of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) maternity denning in snowdrifts around icebergs frozen into the fast ice or grounded on the seafloor. Based on six den observations in north and northeast Greenland during spring surveys in 2018 and 2019 (109 flight hours), together with observations of 20 adult females with 35 cubs of the year (COYs) in adjacent sea ice, we hypothesize that the use of snowdrifts around icebergs for maternity denning is an established behavior in the region and not a random event. Factors influencing maternity denning in snowdrifts around icebergs may include limited suitable drifts on the nearby terrestrial polar desert due to low precipitation, the presence of suitable wind-blown snow banks regardless of the direction of autumn storm winds, cold and stable habitat throughout the winter denning period, and access to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) pupping habitat in the nearby Northeast Water polynya. This type of maternity denning habitat is only available in glaciated regions of the Arctic where marine-terminating glaciers deposit mélange large enough to become grounded offshore and remain in place for months or years. This habitat may become less stable or disappear with long-term climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By the end of 2018 Kangerlussuaq Glacier in southeast Greenland had retreated further inland than at any time in the past 80 years and its terminus was approaching a region of retrograde bed slope from where further rapid retreat would have been inevitable. Here we show that the retreat occurred because the glacier failed to advance during the winters of 2016/17 and 2017/18 owing to a weakened proglacial mélange. This mixture of sea ice and icebergs is normally rigid enough to inhibit calving in winter, but for 2 consecutive years it repeatedly collapsed, allowing Kangerlussuaq Glacier to continue to calve all year round. The mélange break-ups followed the establishment of anomalously warm surface water on the continental shelf during 2016, which likely penetrated the fjord. As calving continued uninterrupted from summer 2016 to the end of 2018 the glacier accelerated by 35 % and thinned by 35 m. These observations demonstrate the importance of near-surface ocean temperatures in tidewater glacier stability and show that it is not only deep-ocean warming that can lead to glacier retreat. During winter 2019 a persistent mélange reformed and the glacier readvanced by 3.5 km. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing ocean and air temperatures have contributed to the removal of floating ice shelves from several Greenland outlet glaciers; however, the specific contribution of these external forcings remains poorly understood. Here we use atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological time series data from the ice shelf of Petermann Gletscher, NW Greenland to quantify the forcing of the ocean and atmosphere on the ice shelf at a site ~16 km from the grounding line within a large sub-ice-shelf channel. Basal melt rates here indicate a strong seasonality, rising from a winter mean of 2 m a−1 to a maximum of 80 m a−1 during the summer melt season. This increase in basal melt rates confirms the direct link between summer atmospheric warming around Greenland and enhanced ocean-forced melting of its remaining ice shelves. We attribute this enhanced melting to increased discharge of subglacial runoff into the ocean at the grounding line, which strengthens under-ice currents and drives a greater ocean heat flux toward the ice base. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent observations have identified increased mass loss from Greenland marine-terminating outlet glaciers (MTOG) with implications for global sea-level rise and wider ocean circulation. The flow of Atlantic-sourced waters to the Greenland margin is thought to be a major control on MTOG behaviour. Investigation of longer-term records of the role of Atlantic-sourced waters on MOTG dynamics are needed to improve understanding of potential future trends in MTOG behaviour. Here we present a multi-proxy study (benthic and planktic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cysts, diatoms, stable isotopes, sea ice biomarkers and sedimentological analyses) from core PS100-198 on the northeast Greenland shelf to investigate the interaction between the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) and ocean circulation through the Holocene. Proximal glaciomarine conditions at the base of the core indicate deglaciation before 10.9 ka cal BP with the relatively warm Atlantic Water present through advection of the Return Atlantic Current (RAC) across the shelf. The advection of RAC increased through the early Holocene reaching peak subsurface warmth from 8 to 9 ka cal BP. Surface conditions at this time were characterised by heavy sea-ice cover. During the mid-to late Holocene (c. 7–2 ka cal BP) advection of RAC weakened with cooler subsurface waters, but with an amelioration of surface conditions characterised by seasonal sea ice. From c. 2 ka cal BP, during the late Holocene, surface conditions continued to improve with continued seasonal sea-ice cover while subsurface proxies record an increase in RAC advection. The last c. 100 years represent the most ameliorated surface conditions through the Holocene and with subsurface conditions as warm as the early Holocene peak. This coincided with the final break up of ice within 79N fjord and retreat of NEGIS to the Holocene minimum position. Current conditions, therefore, suggest the present-day ice shelf within 79N fjord is most likely susceptible to collapse in the near future. This study highlights the critical influence of Atlantic-sourced waters on the dynamics of major Greenland MTOGs. • Surface and bottom water multi-proxy reconstruction of NE Greenland paleoceanography. • Dynamics of the NE Greenland ice stream strongly linked to inflow of Atlantic Water. • Modern ocean conditions as warm as peak Holocene when the ice shelf disintegrated. • Current ice shelf susceptible to disintegration based on ameliorated ocean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The melting of marine terminating glaciers in Northeast Greenland is a visible sign that our climate is changing. This melt has been partly attributed to changes in oceanic heat fluxes, particularly warming of Atlantic Water (AW). Yet our understanding of the interaction between glaciers and the ocean is limited by the length of instrumental records. Here, we present a multi-proxy study (benthic foraminifera assemblages, CT scans, grain size, XRF, and stable isotope data) on core DA17-NG-ST08-092G, located 90 km east of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). Whilst the exact timing of deglaciation is uncertain, it is certain to have occurred at least as early as 12.5 ka cal BP, and likely before 13.4 ka cal BP. The inflow of AW may have played a role in the seemingly early deglaciation on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf. Following deglaciation, the site was overlain by an ice shelf, with AW and Polar Water (PW) flowing beneath until 11.2 ka cal BP. The NEGIS briefly retreated westwards between 11.2 and 10.8 ka cal BP before our site returned to glacier-proximal conditions dominated by colder subsurface water and persistent AW flowing beneath (10.8–9.6 ka cal BP). Between 9.6 and 7.9 ka cal BP the NEGIS retreated westwards; there was a continued presence of AW and PW at the site. A drastic shift in ocean circulation occurred at 7.9 ka cal BP, with a decline in AW flow and dominance of PW flowing beneath perennial sea ice. During the Late Holocene, there was return of AW and likely breakup of perennial sea ice. • Multi-proxy reconstruction on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf. • Deglaciation occurred before 12.5 ka cal BP, possibly even before 13.4 ka cal BP. • Atlantic water inflow likely played a key role in deglaciation in this region. • Drastic decline in Atlantic water inflow occurred at 7.9 ka cal BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on sediment cores and geophysical data collected from Petermann Fjord and northern Nares Strait, NW Greenland, an Arctic ice shelf sediment facies is presented that distinguishes sub and pro ice shelf environments. Sediment cores were collected from sites beneath the present day Petermann Ice Tongue (PIT) and in deglacial sediments of northern Nares Strait with a focus on understanding the glacial and oceanographic history over the last 11,000 cal yr BP. The modern sub ice shelf sediment facies in Petermann Fjord is laminated and devoid of coarse clasts (IRD) due to strong basal melting that releases debris (debris filtering) from the basal ice at the grounding zone driven by buoyant subglacial meltwater and entrained Atlantic Water. Laminated sediments in the deep basin proximal to the gounding zone comprise layers of fine mud formed by suspension settling from turbid meltwater plumes (plumites) interrupted by normally graded very fine sand to medium silt layers with sharp basal contacts and rip-up clasts of mud, interpreted as turbidites. An inner fjord sill limits distribution of sediment gravity flows from the grounding zone to the deep inner fjord basin, such that sites on the inner sill and beyond the ice tongue largely only comprise plumites. Bioturbation and foraminiferal abundances increase with distance from the grounding zone. The benthic foraminiferal species, Elphidium clavatum is absent beneath the ice tongue, but dominant in the turbid meltwater influenced environment beyond the ice tongue. The very sparse IRD in sediments beneath the PIT and in the fjord beyond the PIT derives mainly from englacial debris in the ice tongue, side valley glaciers, rock falls from the steep fjord walls and sea ice. We use the modern ice shelf sediment facies characteristics to infer the past presence of ice shelves in northern Nares Strait using analyses of sediment cores from several cruises (OD1507, HLY03, 2001LSSL, RYDER19). On bathymetric highs, bioturbated mud with dispersed IRD overlies a 10–15 m thick, distinctly laminated silt and clay unit with rare coarse clasts and sparse foraminifera which forms a sediment drape of nearly uniform thickness. We interpret these laminated sediments to represent glaciomarine deposition by meltwater plumes emanating from ice streams that terminated in floating ice shelves. IRD layers, shifts in sediment composition (qXRD, MS and XRF) and faunal assemblage changes in the laminated unit document periods of ice-shelf instability sometimes, but not always, coupled with grounding zone retreat. Our deglacial reconstruction, including ice shelves, begins ∼10.7 cal ka BP, with confluent ice streams grounded in Hall Basin fronted by the Robeson Channel ice shelf. Ice shelf breakup and grounding zone retreat to relatively stable grounding zones at Kennedy Channel and the mouth of Petermann Fjord was accomplished by 9.4 cal ka BP when the Hall Basin ice shelf was established. This ice shelf broke up and reformed once prior to the final break up at 8.5 to 8.4 cal ka BP marking ice stream collapse, separation of Greenland and Innuitian ice sheets, and the opening of Nares Strait for Arctic-Atlantic throughflow. The Petermann ice shelf remained in Hall Basin until the Petermann Glacier retreated from the fjord mouth ∼7.1 cal ka BP. The resilience of these northern ice streams to strong early Holocene insolation and subsurface Atlantic Water advection is attributed to their northern aspect, buttressing by narrow passages, and high ice flux from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). [Display omitted] • Arctic ice shelf sediment facies from Petermann Fjord is fine-grained, laminated, and lacks IRD. • Basal debris melts-out near the grounding zone while turbid meltwater plumes deposit fines widely. • Petermann & Nares Strait ice streams terminated in floating ice shelves from 10.7 to 7.1 cal ka BP. • IRD layers in Nares Strait show times of ice-shelf loss—sometimes with grounding zone retreat. • Final Nares ice-shelf break up at 8.5 to 8.4 cal ka BP lead to opening of Nares Strait to throughflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-resolution sea ice–ocean numerical model of the North Water polynya has been developed to study the wind-driven circulation during polynya events. An idealized three-layer stratified ocean is used to initialize the model to characterize the baroclinic response to realistic wind and ice conditions. The model general circulation pattern is mainly forced by an along-channel sea level gradient between the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay, which determines the magnitude of the southward Baffin Current, and by an across-channel sea level gradient in Baffin Bay, which drives the northward West Greenland Current (WGC). These two currents are found to be anticorrelated to each other in the Smith Sound area. During strong northerly wind events, occurring quite frequently in the winter–spring period in the polynya, nutrient-rich Baffin Bay waters transported by the WGC are forced toward the Greenland shelf, coinciding with upwelling events along the Greenland coast. Whenever an ice bridge is present (i.e., the polynya exists and is substantially open), upwelling also occurs at the landfast ice edge. In such cases, the total upwelling area is increased by an amount that depends on the form of the ice bridge but could easily double during certain years. The baroclinic circulation associated with the upwelling response includes the formation of a cyclonic eddy attached to the ice edge that is generated during strong northerly wind events. Primary production estimations reveal that upwelling during polynya events plays a significant role in the early spring phytoplankton bloom, suggesting that the disappearance of the polynya as a result of climate change may have profound implications for the entire ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth continues to have a third of the ice that it had at the peak of the last ice age, although that ice continues to decrease, as it has, overall, for the past 18,000 years. Over the last 100 years, the retreat signal has been especially strong in ice shelves of the Arctic and along the Antarctic Peninsula, with a more mixed signal elsewhere. For instance, since the early 1990s, the massive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have thinned along the coasts but thickened in the interior, and since the late 1970s, sea ice has decreased in the Arctic but increased (slightly) in the Antarctic. Major difficulties in the interpretations of the climate record come from the high interannual variability of most cryosphere components and the lack of consistent long-term global data records; the latter problem is now being slowly remedied, in part, through satellite technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Core MD99-2323 was extracted from the Snorri Drift at a water depth of 1062 m, just south of the Denmark Strait, and ~120 km from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) margins of the Iceland and East Greenland Ice Sheets. The core chronology (~7.5 to 240 cal ka) is derived from radiocarbon dates, marker tephra, paleomagnetic excursion, and correlation with North Atlantic δ18O records on Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (δ18O Np). Sedimentation averaged ~7.5 cm/kyr. Records of proxy flow speed, ice rafted debris (IRD) and oxygen isotopes show that many IRD abundance peaks represent winnowing of the fine fraction by faster flows rather than pulses of increased IRD flux. The overall pattern of flow speed does not resemble the classic fast interglacial/slow glacial pattern seen in records of Nordic Sea overflow, rather the current record is suggested to be partly controlled by the production of brine-driven gravity flows from adjacent ice fronts, especially during cold periods. On a smaller scale the usual glacial/slow – interglacial/fast pattern appears to be the case during ~5 kyr oscillations during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 where periodic low flow speed is matched by high values of planktonic oxygen isotope ratios. Eight peaks in quartz wt% reflect increased contributions from glacial erosion of Precambrian and Caledonian bedrock from E and NE Greenland; peaks in dolomite may reflect glacial-marine transport from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Cross wavelet analysis of the δ18O Np versus sortable silt and quartz records indicate significant precession and obliquity periodicities, but with little temporal correlations due to leads and lags in responses. • 240 cal ka record of changes in current speed and grain-size • Snorri Drift----Northern-most Atlantic sediment drift • Changes in mineral composition indicate changes in sediment sources. • Grain-size and mineral records implicate links to orbital forcing. • MD99-2323 within 130 km of the limits of the Iceland and Greenland ice sheets [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) provide accurate proxies for the temperature evolution in Greenland during the last glacial interval (roughly 110 ka to 10 ka b2k) [1]. A striking feature of these records are rapid transitions, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, during which tempera-tures in Greenland rose by up to 15 K within a few decades. These warming events are consistently preceded by more gradual warming and followed by more gradual cooling in Antarctica [2]. This bipolar seesaw has been used to construct a synthetic record of Greenland oxygen isotope rations for the past 800 ka (GLt_syn) [3].In recent work, we have introduced a dynamical system model that explains the DO variability by rapid retreat and slow regrowth of ice shelves and sea ice, in combination with changing subsurface water temperatures due to insulation by an extensive sea ice cover [4]. When forced with multi-millennial global ice volume (GIV) variability, our model reproduces observed features of the records across the last glacial, including the sawtooth shape of the DO cycles, the temporal variations in the frequency of DO transitions, and the shifted anti-phase relationship between Greenland and Ant-arctic records. Further evidence for the hypotheses underlying our model comes from early-warning signals of the DO events that we have recently identified in the decadal-scale frequency band of the NGRIP oxygen isotope record [5]. We show that our model, when forced with GIV variability over the past 800 ka, still reproduces the frequency of DO events except for a few episodes of exception-ally high instability. We finally discuss the specific climatic conditions during these episodes, and which global forcing in addition to GIV could be sufficient to repro-duce the DO frequency during these episodes. References: [1] NGRIP members, Nature (2004) [2] WAIS members, Nature (2015) [3] Barker et al., Science (2011) [4] Boers, Ghil, and Rousseau, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. (2018)[5] Boers, Nat. Comm. (2018) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]