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Road freight transport is dominated by gasoline- and diesel- fueled internal combustion engine vehicles, presenting a challenge for decarbonization. There is a growing interest in electric-drive vehicles as alternative to reduce CO 2 and local pollutant emissions in road freight transport. In this research, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate the potential of electric-drive vehicles to reduce energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in a road freight vehicle fleet; focusing on Japan as a case of study. In the Base scenario, tank to wheel CO 2 emissions are reduced 51.9% between 2012 and 2050 driven by vehicle stock reduction, hybrid electric vehicle diffusion and vehicle fuel consumption improvement. By 2050, tank to wheel CO 2 emissions can be reduced up to 55.8% with the diffusion of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. Despite of aggressive electric-drive vehicle deployment, fossil fuels account for more than 52% of the energy consumed in all scenarios in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonizing road freight transport is difficult due to its reliance on fossil fuel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The role of powertrain electrification in achieving deep decarbonization in road freight transport was studied using a vehicle stock turnover model, focusing on Japan. Twelve vehicle types were considered; combining four powertrains, ICEV, hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV); and three vehicle size classes, normal, compact and mini-sized vehicles. A scenario-based approach was used; considering a Base scenario, and three alternative scenarios targeting powertrain electrification. Between 2012 and 2050, tank to wheel CO2 emissions decrease 42.8% in the Base scenario, due to the reduction of vehicle stock, the improvement of vehicle fuel consumption and the adoption of HEVs. Diffusion of FCEVs in normal vehicles and BEVs in compact and mini-sized vehicles achieves the largest tank to wheel CO2 emissions reductions, up to 44.6% compared with the 2050 baseline value. The net cash flow is positive over the whole time horizon, peaking at 6.7 billion USD/year in 2049 and reaching 6.6 billion USD/year by 2050. Powertrain electrification is not enough to achieve any of the CO2 emissions reduction targets in road freight transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]