Energy consumption and CO2 emissions reduction potential of electric-drive vehicle diffusion in a road freight vehicle fleet.

Road freight transport is dominated by gasoline- and diesel- fueled internal combustion engine vehicles, presenting a challenge for decarbonization. There is a growing interest in electric-drive vehicles as alternative to reduce CO 2 and local pollutant emissions in road freight transport. In this research, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate the potential of electric-drive vehicles to reduce energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in a road freight vehicle fleet; focusing on Japan as a case of study. In the Base scenario, tank to wheel CO 2 emissions are reduced 51.9% between 2012 and 2050 driven by vehicle stock reduction, hybrid electric vehicle diffusion and vehicle fuel consumption improvement. By 2050, tank to wheel CO 2 emissions can be reduced up to 55.8% with the diffusion of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. Despite of aggressive electric-drive vehicle deployment, fossil fuels account for more than 52% of the energy consumed in all scenarios in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]