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BackgroundOne challenge for primary care providers caring for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is to identify those at the highest risk for clinically significant liver disease.AimTo derive a risk stratification tool using variables from structured electronic health record (EHR) data for use in populations which are disproportionately affected with obesity and diabetes.MethodsWe used data from 344 participants who underwent Fibroscan examination to measure liver fat and liver stiffness measurement [LSM]. Using two approaches, multivariable logistic regression and random forest classification, we assessed risk factors for any hepatic fibrosis (LSM > 7 kPa) and significant hepatic fibrosis (> 8 kPa). Possible predictors included data from the EHR for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, FIB-4, body mass index (BMI), LDL, HDL, and triglycerides.ResultsOf 344 patients (56.4% women), 34 had any hepatic fibrosis, and 15 significant hepatic fibrosis. Three variables (BMI, FIB-4, diabetes) were identified from both approaches. When we used variable cut-offs defined by Youden's index, the final model predicting any hepatic fibrosis had an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.84), NPV of 91.5% and PPV of 40.0%. The final model with variable categories based on standard clinical thresholds (i.e., BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2; FIB-4 ≥ 1.45) had lower discriminatory ability (AUC 0.65), but higher PPV (50.0%) and similar NPV (91.3%). We observed similar findings for predicting significant hepatic fibrosis.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that standard thresholds for clinical risk factors/biomarkers may need to be modified for greater discriminatory ability among populations with high prevalence of obesity and diabetes.

Background & aimsA recent panel of international experts proposed the disease acronym metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in lieu of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to estimate the burden of and risk factors for NAFLD and MAFLD, and to examine the concordance between definitions in a Veterans population.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study among randomly selected patients within primary care at the Houston Veterans Affairs (VA) facility. Participants completed a survey, provided blood, and underwent Fibroscan. In the absence of heavy alcohol, hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus, a controlled attenuation parameter median ≥290 dB/m was used to define NAFLD, whereas MAFLD was defined as controlled attenuation parameter median ≥290 dB/m and either body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 or diabetes, or 2 or more of the following: hypertension, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 50.9 years, 55.4% were women, 42.8% were white, and 43.8% were Black. The prevalence of NAFLD was 40.6% (82/202). All 82 patients with NAFLD had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and therefore met our criteria for MAFLD (ie, 100% concordance). Compared with patients with no metabolic trait, patients with ≥3 traits had a 48-fold (adjusted odds ratio, 47.6; 95% confidence interval, 11.3-200) higher risk of NAFLD/MAFLD. Overall, 19 participants (9.4% of the total, 15.9% of those with NAFLD) had at least moderate fibrosis.ConclusionsNAFLD was present in 40% of Veterans registered in primary care; 9.4% of veterans had at least moderate hepatic fibrosis, with most having concurrent NAFLD. There was perfect concordance between NAFLD and the alternative MAFLD definition.

BackgroundObservational studies suggest greater height is associated with increased ovarian cancer risk, but cannot exclude bias and/or confounding as explanations for this. Mendelian randomisation (MR) can provide evidence which may be less prone to bias.MethodsWe pooled data from 39 Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium studies (16,395 cases; 23,003 controls). We applied two-stage predictor-substitution MR, using a weighted genetic risk score combining 609 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Study-specific odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between genetically predicted height and risk were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.ResultsGreater genetically predicted height was associated with increased ovarian cancer risk overall (pooled-OR (pOR) = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.11 per 5 cm increase in height), and separately for invasive (pOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.01-1.11) and borderline (pOR = 1.15; 95% CI: 1.02-1.29) tumours.ConclusionsWomen with a genetic propensity to being taller have increased risk of ovarian cancer. This suggests genes influencing height are involved in pathways promoting ovarian carcinogenesis.

It is unclear whether obesity confers increased risk of non-cardia gastric adenocarcinoma and its precursor, gastric intestinal metaplasia. Here, we examined whether various dimensions of adiposity independently predispose to the development of non-cardia gastric intestinal metaplasia. We compared data from 409 non-cardia gastric intestinal metaplasia cases and 1748 controls without any gastric intestinal metaplasia from a cross-sectional study at the VA Medical Center in Houston, Texas. Participants completed standardized questionnaires, underwent anthropometric measurements, and underwent a study endoscopy with gastric mapping biopsies. Non-cardia gastric intestinal metaplasia cases included participants with intestinal metaplasia on any non-cardia gastric biopsy. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using logistic regression models. Increasing body mass index (BMI) was not associated with risk of non-cardia gastric intestinal metaplasia (per unit BMI adjusted OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96–1.00). Similarly, we found no associations with increase in waist circumference (per 10-cm increase adjusted OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.87–1.03) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) (per unit WHR adjusted OR, 2.34; 95% CI, 0.37–14.7). However, there was a significant inverse association with gastric intestinal metaplasia and increasing hip circumference, reflecting gluteofemoral obesity (per 10-cm increase adjusted OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80–0.98). The inverse association was observed for both extensive and focal gastric intestinal metaplasia. The independent dimensions of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) are not associated with increased risk of non-cardia gastric intestinal metaplasia. The inverse association between gluteofemoral obesity and risk of gastric intestinal metaplasia warrants additional study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limitations of endoscopic sampling may result in missed dysplasia at the diagnosis of Barrett's esophagus (BE). However, the role of close follow-up endoscopy is unclear. The aim was to evaluate the proportion of patients diagnosed with "missed" dysplasia within 18 months of their index nondysplastic BE (NDBE) diagnosis. This was a retrospective analysis of a cohort of BE patients diagnosed during 1990–2019 at the Houston VA. Patients with BE on index esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) were classified as NDBE, indefinite dysplasia, or dysplastic (low- or high-grade dysplasia) based on initial biopsies. We identified NDBE patients who had follow-up EGD within 3–18 months after index EGD. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors of dysplasia on follow-up EGD. We identified 614 patients who had BE on index EGD. Among those with NDBE and follow-up EGD within 3–18 months (n = 271), 4.1% had definite dysplasia on follow-up, and an additional 14.0% had indefinite dysplasia. Proportions of definite or indefinite dysplasia at follow-up within 3–18 months significantly decreased from 32.6% among patients with index EGD before 2009 to 11.7% among patients with index EGD after 2013 (P for trend =.068). Those with any indefinite or definite dysplastic BE at follow-up within 3–18 months after index EGD (n = 49) were more likely to have BE length ≥3 cm on index EGD (odds ratio, 3.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.63–7.08) than those with persistent NDBE or no BE on follow-up. The occurrence of missed dysplasia on an index EGD has decreased over time. However, those with long segment BE were more than 3 times as likely to have missed dysplasia, and this group could benefit from dysplasia surveillance within 18 months of BE diagnosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Tobacco smoking is classified as carcinogenic to humans (International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1). We aimed to estimate the percentage and number of incident cancer cases diagnosed in Texas in 2015 that were attributable to tobacco smoking, and we examined differences in the proportions of smoking-attributable cancers between the major racial/ethnic subgroups of the population.Methods: We calculated population-attributable fractions for cancers attributable to tobacco smoking using prevalence data from the Texas Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and relative risks associated with smoking status from pooled analyses of cohort studies or meta-analyses. Cancer incidence data were collected from the Texas Cancer Registry.Results: We estimated that 19,000 excess cancer cases or 18.4% of all cancers diagnosed in 2015 in Texans aged ≥ 25 years were caused by tobacco smoking. Males had a higher overall proportion of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking than females (male, 23.3%, 11,993 excess cases; female, 13.5%, 7,006 cases). Approximately 20% of cancer cases in non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks were attributable to tobacco smoking compared to 12.8% among Hispanics.Conclusions: Despite ongoing public health campaigns combatting tobacco use, this preventable behavior still contributes significantly to cancer incidence in Texas. Racial/ethnic differences in smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable cancer incidence should be considered when designing cancer prevention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gastric cancer is a global health problem, with more than 1 million people newly diagnosed with gastric cancer worldwide each year. Despite its worldwide decline in incidence and mortality over the past 5 decades, gastric cancer remains the third leading cause of cancer-related death. Knowledge of global as well as regional epidemiology and risk factors for gastric cancer is essential for the practicing gastroenterologist to make personalized decisions about risk stratification, screening, and prevention. In this article, we review the epidemiology of gastric cancer as well as screening and prevention efforts to reduce global morbidity and mortality from gastric cancer. First, we discuss the descriptive epidemiology of gastric cancer, including its incidence, mortality, survival, and secular trends. We combine a synthesis of published studies with an analysis of data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer GLOBOCAN project to describe the global burden of gastric cancer and data from the US Cancer Statistics registry to discuss the change in incidence of gastric cancer in the United States. Next, we summarize current knowledge of risk factors for gastric cancer. Finally, we discuss prevention strategies and screening efforts for gastric cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Texas has the highest hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence rates in the continental United States, but these rates vary by race-ethnicity. We examined racial-ethnic disparities through a geospatial analysis of the social determinants of health. Using data from the Texas Cancer Registry, we assembled 11,547 HCC cases diagnosed between 2011 and 2015 into Texas's census tracts geographic units. Twenty-nine neighborhood measures representing demographics and socioeconomic, and employment domains were retrieved from the U.S. Census Bureau. We performed a series of aspatial and spatially weighted regression models to identify neighborhood-level characteristics associated with HCC risk. We found positive associations between HCC and proportion of population in census tracts that are Black or African American, Hispanic, over 60 years of age, in the construction industry, and in the service occupation but an inverse association with the proportion of population employed in the agricultural industry. The magnitude of these associations varied across Texas census tracts. We found evidence that neighborhood-level factors are differentially associated with variations in HCC incidence across Texas. Our findings reinforce existing knowledge about HCC risk factors and expose others, including neighborhood-level employment status. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiologic data regarding coffee and tea consumption and risk of esophageal inflammation, Barrett’s esophagus (BE), and adenocarcinoma are sparse and inconclusive. This study examined the association between consumption of tea or coffee with risk of BE. We conducted a cross-sectional study among US veterans, comparing 310 patients with histologically confirmed BE with 1728 individuals with no endoscopic or histopathologic features of BE (controls). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression models. In univariate models, we found a statistically significant association between risk of BE and consumption of coffee (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.06–1.87) or tea (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05–1.71). However, in multivariate analysis, in which models were adjusted for confounders including sex and race, we found no association between risk of BE and consumption of coffee (adjusted OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.76–1.42) or tea (adjusted OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.85–1.44). These data do not support an association between consumption of coffee or tea and the risk of BE. It is unlikely that avoidance of coffee or tea will protect against BE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Growing awareness of the potential to predict a person's future risk of cancer has resulted in the development of numerous algorithms. Such algorithms aim to improve the ability of policy makers, doctors and patients to make rational decisions about behaviour modification or surveillance, with the expectation that this activity will lead to overall benefit. There remains debate however, about whether accurate risk prediction is achievable for most cancers. Methods: We conducted a brief narrative review of the literature regarding the history and challenges of risk prediction, highlighting our own recent experiences in developing tools for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Results and conclusions: While tools for predicting future risk of cardiovascular outcomes have been translated successfully to clinical practice, the experience with cancer risk prediction has been mixed. Models have now been developed and validated for predicting risk of melanoma and cancers of the breast, colo-rectum, lung, liver, oesophagus and prostate, and while several of these have adequate performance at the population-level, none to date have adequate discrimination for predicting risk in individual patients. Challenges of individual risk prediction for cancer are many, and include long latency, multiple risk factors of mostly small effect, and incomplete knowledge of the causal pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a need to identify individuals with gastric intestinal metaplasia, a precursor to gastric cancer, so they can be offered screening and surveillance. We examined the prevalence of gastric intestinal metaplasia, detected by upper endoscopy biopsy analysis, in different race and ethnic subgroups. We also investigated the extent to which Helicobacter pylori infection, with or without acute and chronic gastritis, accounts for observed associations between race or ethnicity and risk of gastric intestinal metaplasia. We used data from a cross-sectional study of consecutively recruited patients at the Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Houston, Texas, from February 2008 to August 2013. All participants completed a study questionnaire on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and underwent upper endoscopy with gastric mapping (7 biopsy sites). Cases were classified as having gastric intestinal metaplasia if intestinal metaplasia was detected in 1 or more noncardia gastric biopsies; noncases were participants without evidence of gastric intestinal metaplasia. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CI values to examine the association between race or ethnicity and gastric intestinal metaplasia and performed a mediation analysis to determine whether H pylori and gastritis affected observed associations. We included 415 cases with gastric intestinal metaplasia and 1764 noncases. The prevalence of gastric intestinal metaplasia was highest among Hispanic patients (29.5%; 95% CI, 23.7%–36.1%), followed by African American (25.5%; 95% CI, 22.4%–28.9%) and non-Hispanic white patients (13.7%; 95% CI, 11.9%–15.7%). After we adjusted for age, sex, and smoking, African American (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44–2.44) and Hispanic race or ethnicity (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.61–3.34) and H pylori infection (OR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.79–4.55) were associated with an increased risk of gastric intestinal metaplasia. H pylori infection alone accounted for 33.6% of the association of race or ethnicity with gastric intestinal metaplasia, and 55.5% of the association when combined with acute and chronic gastritis. Hispanic and African American patients have an increased risk for gastric intestinal metaplasia, determined by upper endoscopy biopsy analysis, compared with non-Hispanic white patients. This increase in risk was partially independent of H pylori infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Gluteofemoral obesity (determined by measurement of subcutaneous fat in the hip and thigh regions) could reduce risks of cardiovascular and diabetic disorders associated with abdominal obesity. We evaluated whether gluteofemoral obesity also reduces the risk of Barrett’s esophagus (BE), a premalignant lesion associated with abdominal obesity. Methods We collected data from non-Hispanic white participants in 8 studies in the Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium. We compared measures of hip circumference (as a proxy for gluteofemoral obesity) from cases of BE (n = 1559) separately with 2 control groups: 2557 population-based controls and 2064 individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD controls). Study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using individual participant data and multivariable logistic regression and combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. Results We found an inverse relationship between hip circumference and BE (OR per 5-cm increase, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.81–0.96), compared with population-based controls in a multivariable model that included waist circumference. This association was not observed in models that did not include waist circumference. Similar results were observed in analyses stratified by frequency of GERD symptoms. The inverse association with hip circumference was statistically significant only among men (vs population-based controls: OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.96 for men; OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.74–1.16 for women). For men, within each category of waist circumference, a larger hip circumference was associated with a decreased risk of BE. Increasing waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of BE in the mutually adjusted population-based and GERD control models. Conclusions Although abdominal obesity is associated with an increased risk of BE, there is an inverse association between gluteofemoral obesity and BE, particularly among men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Risks for some cancers increase with height. We investigated the relationship between height and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its precursor, Barrett's esophagus (BE). Methods We analyzed epidemiologic and genome-wide genomic data from individuals of European ancestry in the Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium, from 999 cases of EAC, 2061 cases of BE, and 2168 population controls. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between height and risks of EAC and BE. We performed a Mendelian randomization analysis to estimate an unconfounded effect of height on EAC and BE using a genetic risk score derived from 243 genetic variants associated with height as an instrumental variable. Results Height was associated inversely with EAC (per 10-cm increase in height: OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.62–0.79 for men and OR, 0.57; 95% CI 0.40–0.80 for women) and BE (per 10-cm increase in height: OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62–0.77 for men and OR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.48–0.77 for women). The risk estimates were consistent across strata of age, education level, smoking, gastroesophageal reflux symptoms, body mass index, and weight. Mendelian randomization analysis yielded results quantitatively similar to those from the conventional epidemiologic analysis. Conclusions Height is associated inversely with risks of EAC and BE. Results from the Mendelian randomization study showed that the inverse association observed did not result from confounding factors. Mechanistic studies of the effect of height on EAC and BE are warranted; height could have utility in clinical risk stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & Aims Cirrhosis related to chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The extent to which HCC occurs in U.S. in the absence of cirrhosis in CHB remains unclear. Methods We identified CHB patients who were diagnosed with HCC in the national Veterans Administration (VA) between 2001 and 2013. We defined presence and absence of cirrhosis at the time of HCC diagnosis using explicit histological, radiological, endoscopic, and laboratory criteria. We used multivariable regression analysis to identify demographic and clinical characteristics associated with CHB-related HCC in the absence of cirrhosis. We also examined liver transplant-free survival in CHB-HCC patients with and without cirrhosis. Results Among 8539 CHB patients, 317 developed HCC of whom 30 (9.5%) did not have any evidence of cirrhosis at the time of HCC diagnosis. Compared to HCC patients with cirrhosis, HCC patients without cirrhosis were more likely to be non-white (African American, OR = 6.78; 95% CI 2.05–22.4; Asian, OR 11.6, 95% CI 2.63–50.8), have a family history of HCC (OR 32.9, 95% CI 3.76–288), and hypertension (OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.02–9.75). There was no significant difference in the transplant-free survival between CHB-HCC patients with and without cirrhosis (hazard ratio 0.68, 95% CI 0.43–1.09). Conclusions Fewer than 10% of U.S. based CHB-related HCC patients did not have cirrhosis. Race and family history of HCC were the main risk factors for HCC in the absence of cirrhosis in CHB. These factors may help guide the decision to initiate HCC surveillance in CHB patients without cirrhosis. Lay summary Patients with chronic hepatitis B who are African American, or Asian, older than 40 years of age with family members with liver cancer or high blood pressure are at a higher risk of developing liver cancer in the absence of cirrhosis. These patients should be included in the screening program for liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]