1. True North: CANADIAN POLITICS, THE TORY ALTERNATIVE, AND THE UNITED STATES
- Author
-
Dueck, Colin
- Subjects
Canada -- Political aspects ,Prime ministers -- Evaluation ,Public opinion -- Analysis ,Meritocracy -- Analysis ,Political systems -- Analysis ,Social sciences ,Conservative Party of Canada -- History ,Liberal Party (Canada) -- History - Abstract
The Liberal government of Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, suffers from persistently low approval ratings that are worsening over time. Trudeau must call the next federal election by October 2025 at the latest, and if current trends continue, it appears he is headed for defeat. The Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, has surged in polls over the past year and is well positioned to win the next federal election. Foreign observers may therefore be interested to know the state of conservative politics in Canada and what this party stands for. Unlike so many other center-right parties throughout the Western world, Canada's Conservative Party has not been torn apart by populist-nationalist pressures over the past decade. But this is not because Canada is immune to populism or nationalism. Rather, it is because those forces express themselves differently north of the border. The modern Conservative, or Tory, Party's base lies in western Canada, a region periodically subject to waves of populist discontent. This discontent has long been aimed at the traditional political establishment located around the great urban centers of the St. Lawrence Seaway. The Liberal Party dominates those Laurentian centers and is commonly viewed as Canada's natural ruling party, going back generations. As a result, western populists and 'small c' conservatives make common cause against Liberal federal dominance. One threat to this informal alliance is when Tory leaders pay insufficient attention to the interests or concerns of western populists. This is exactly what occurred during the early 1990s, when the Progressive Conservatives, as they were then known, lost western rural support to the upstart Reform Party. Tories were then confined to opposition for over a decade. Only when these two parties successfully merged, some 20 years ago under the leadership of Stephen Harper, were the Tories able to recapture power at the federal level. Ever since that time, Canada's Conservative Party leaders have tended to their base while attempting to reach beyond it. And on matters of great controversy inside other center-right parties worldwide, Tory voters and Tory leaders have remained largely aligned. On issues such as immigration, entitlement spending, free trade, and foreign policy, Canada's Conservatives have not split apart or radically changed direction. Again, this is not because Tories are necessarily more liberal or less populist than other center-right parties in leading democracies. Rather, it is because nationally specific conditions have not lent themselves to any great intra-conservative divide during recent years. Nationalism is a more powerful force in Canadian politics than most Americans realize. This may be because Canadian nationalism is quietly directed against the United States. The Dominion of Canada was built to resist US annexation. English Canadian Tory Loyalists forged their national identity on ties to Britain rather than America. Beginning in the late 1960s, that older form of Canadian nationalism was replaced by a new one. The Liberals under Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau encouraged a new sense of Canada's national identity, linked to progressive values at home and implemented through constitutional, socioeconomic, and administrative reforms. The sense of America as counterpoint remained, but the center of gravity for anti-US resistance shifted from right to left. This all creates delicate foreign policy challenges for Canada's next Conservative prime minister. Most Canadian citizens expect their leaders to maintain a certain dignified sense of national independence, especially when vital national interests are at risk. At the same time, given international conditions, the case for better coordination with the United States and other leading allies over a wide range of security and economic issues is strong. A prudent Tory government would embrace a bold vision of enhanced continental defense with the US, encompassing trade relations, ballistic missile defenses, Arctic security, counter-narcotics efforts, maritime safeguards, North American energy independence, military spending increases, counterterrorism, and border security related to illegal migration. A prudent American president would do the same. This report begins by surveying the current strengths, weaknesses, and historical bases of Canada's leading political parties. It also examines the issue of Quebec nationalism. I describe in some detail the lineage of various forms of conservatism in Canada. This includes a description of how Canadian conservatives have avoided being torn apart in the current era of populist-nationalist upheaval--and how they now look to capture a majority in Parliament, region by region. I offer specific foreign policy recommendations for better US-Canada relations. And I suggest that Canada's Tories are best understood as that nation's 'Country Party,' even while the Liberals have long since taken up the role of 'Court Party.' The bottom line here is that Canada's Court Party is in bad shape, with no sign of relief., Canada's political system works on the Westminster parliamentary model, drawn from the United Kingdom. There is an upper house, or Canadian Senate, at the federal level, but its authority is [...]
- Published
- 2024