Search

This paper is to introduce a proposed deep space mission, which aims to perform in situ detection of the central structure, namely the magnetic reconnection current sheet, which drives the large-scale eruption on a star. The main focus of this mission is on the fine physical characteristics of the large-scale magnetic reconnection taking place on the Sun, our nearest star, revealing the secret of the most violent energy release process, also known as the solar storm, in the solar system. The scientific goal of this mission, magnetic reconnection, is a kernel process of energy conversion occurring in the magnetized plasma in the universe, and has long been a fairly important research topic or even research area in solar physics, space science, plasma physics, and the related fields. The in situ detection with a 5 ∼ 20 times enhanced spatial resolution of the instruments used on the Earth will provide us with the extra-clear images of the Sun and the related information. We are thus able to study, to learn, and to understand the Sun on an unprecedented platform, and further resolve the longstanding puzzle in the solar community regarding the fine physical property of the kernel process driving the solar eruption, as well as that of the coronal heating.

We present a solar-centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near-Earth interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time-independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions of the observed CME speeds. Using these results, we then obtain the probability that the velocity of a CME exceeds a particular threshold by extrapolation. We conclude that about 1.72% of the CMEs recorded with SOHO LASCO arrive at the Earth over the time both data sets overlap (November 1996 to September 2017). Then, assuming that 1.72% of all CMEs pass the Earth, we can obtain a first-order estimate of the probability of an extreme space weather event on Earth. To estimate the probability over the next decade of a CME, we fit a Poisson distribution to the complementary cumulative distribution function. We inferred a decadal probability of between 0.01 and 0.09 for an event of at least the size of the large 2012 event, and a probability between 0.0002 and 0.016 for the size of the 1859 Carrington event.

When there is a temporary disturbance of earth’s magnetosphere, then a geomagnetic storm (or solar storm) has occurred. It is caused by a solar wind shock wave and/or cloud of a magnetic field that interacts with the Earth's magnetic fields. The interaction of Interplanetary Magnetic Fields (IMF) of the sun with the earth’s magnetic fields in opposite directions is known as magnetic reconnection (Yousif, 2014). Magnetic reconnection (often referred as "reconnection") is the breaking and reconnecting of oppositely directed magnetic field lines in plasma at a neutral point which leads to converting the magnetic field energy into plasma kinetic and thermal energy. It occurs either in the day-time (day reconnection) where the sunward convection near the polar cusps allows energised particles to be transmitted earthward or night-time (tail reconnection) where particles injected into the magnetosphere are saturated, thus releasing stored energy in the form of auroral substorms. Sokolov (2011) suggested that a geomagnetic storm can be determined by changes in the Disturbed-storm time (Dst). However, not all geomagnetic storms have an initial phase and not all sudden increase in Dst or SYM-H are followed by a geomagnetic storm. This paper attempts to determine what are responsible for magnetic reconnections in the solar cycle 24 considering a low solar activity year 2009 and a high solar activity year 2012. We have to classify the geomagnetic storms using the Dst indices and rearrange the IMF Bz according to its negative, neutral and positive values. We measured the correlation between Bz and solar wind using a 1-min resolution OMNIweb dataset. Thereafter, establish the factors responsible for magnetic reconnections. We analysed 39 and 202 geomagnetic storms in 2009 and 2012 respectively considering the Dst indices and IMF Bz values of each month obtained from the OMNIWeb Database. Our results showed that geomagnetic storms occurred in 10% and 45% of days in the year 2009 and 2012 respectively which implies they were frequent and intense due to high solar activity caused by the frequent occurrence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the year 2012 than in the year 2009. This study also revealed that negative Bz occurrences were 47.54% and 52.18% in 2009 and 2012 respectively. Thus, the more intense the geomagnetic storms, the more Bz would go south and the more magnetic reconnections and subsequently auroral substorms which can increase radiation doses for occupants of transpolar flights, disruption of shortwave radio communications, distortion of compass readings in polar regions, failure of electrical transmission lines, increased corrosion in long pipelines, anomalies in the operations of communications satellites, and potentially lethal dosages of radiation for astronauts in interplanetary spacecraft.

Few studies have collected and analyzed the astronomical events recorded in Arabic literature. In this paper, we present some additional events reported in four Arabic historical sources that could be classified as an aurora. These observations occurred from 9th to 20th century and cover a large geographic area: North Africa, Arabian-Peninsula and Middle-East. Some of them were observed at very low geomagnetic latitude, such as the event seen in Yemen in AD 1919 that can be considered as one of the lowest latitude auroras ever documented by Arabic scholars. In the same Yemenite source, the author describes a twilight phenomenon of 1883 October 03–November 01 which can be considered as an atmospheric-optical phenomenon arising from the major explosive eruptions of Krakatoa in 1883 August 26–27. We also noticed that one of the events which was seen for 7 days coincide probably with the prolonged manifestation of auroras of 1870 September 24–25. Including published records, we compiled a so far most complete catalog of potential auroral candidates in the Arabic sources. This data set can be used in order to study the solar activity variations and magnetic storms in the historical past. One of the interesting auroras was seen in Mecca ($\sim17^{\circ}$ MLAT) in 1872 February 04. This event is further evidence for the equatorward extension of auroral display and the planetary consequences of the great geomagnetic storm of 1872. Finally, it should be underlined that no aurora observations were recorded during the Maunder minimum (MM).

A passing coronal mass ejection (CME) will manifest a different response at an airless body compared to a magnetized planet. Specifically, because the regolith-rich surfaces of airless bodies are directly exposed to the variations in the plasma flow, the surfaces are found to undergo anomalous surface charging during the passing of CME fast plasma events. In this study, we model the surface charging expected at Phobos for nominal solar wind conditions and also those associated with disturbed solar wind conditions during the passage of a CME similar to that observed by MAVEN at Mars in early March 2015. We use an ambipolar diffusion model to examine the development of the trailing wake/void in the plasma flow behind Phobos and the formation of mini-wakes within obstruction regions like Stickney Crater. We also consider the roving of an astronaut in Stickney Crater for Phobos positioned near 10 h Local Time relative to Mars. We examine the plasma dissipation of the collected astronaut charge from contact electrification with the regolith.

Ionization in Earth's troposphere is mainly due to Galactic cosmic rays. Occasionally, solar storms produce intense relativistic ion beams that significantly increase such ionization. One of the largest recorded solar radiation storms, on 20 January 2005, resulted in up to 55-fold increases in the count rates of ground-based particle detectors in polar regions. We use McMurdo and Inuvik neutron monitor data to estimate accurate time profiles of ion energy spectra above the atmosphere at each location. Using data-driven atmospheric models, we perform Monte Carlo simulations of particle-air interactions and calculate atmospheric ionization and potential biological dosage versus altitude and time for each location. We found that if airplane passengers had traversed the south polar region, they could have been exposed to the typical annual cosmic radiation dosage at sea level within 1 h. These techniques can help evaluate possible influences of solar activity on atmospheric properties.

Space weather events produce variations in the electric current in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. From these high-altitude atmospheric regions, resulting geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) can lead to fluctuations in ground currents that affect the electric power grid and potentially overload transformers during extreme storms. The most extreme geomagnetic storm on record, known as the 1859 Carrington event, was so intense that ground-based magnetometers were saturated at high magnetic latitudes. The most reliable, unsaturated observation is the hour resolution data from the Colaba Magnetic Observatory in India. However, higher-frequency components—fluctuations at second through minute time cadence—to the magnetic field can play a significant role in GIC-related effects. We present a new method for scaling higher-frequency observations to create a realistic Carrington-like event magnetic field model, using modern magnetometer observations. Using the magnetic field model and ground conductivity models, we produce an electric field model. This method can be applied to create similar magnetic and electric field models for studies of GIC effects on power grids.

A scheme is suggested and tested for forecasting severe space weather (SvSW) using solar wind velocity (V) and the north-south component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) measured using the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) satellite from 1998 to 2016. SvSW has caused all known electric power outages and telegraph system failures. Earlier SvSW events such as the Carrington event of 1859, Quebec event of 1989 and an event in 1958 are included with information from the literature. Dst storms are used as references to identify 89 major space weather events (DstMin ≤ -100 nT) in 1998-2016. The coincidence of high CME front (or CME shock) velocity ΔV (sudden increase in V over the background by over 275 km/s) and sufficiently large Bz southward at the time of the ΔV increase is associated with SvSW; and their product (ΔV x Bz) is found to exhibit a large negative spike at the speed increase. Such a product (ΔV x Bz) exceeding a threshold seems suitable for forecasting SvSW. However, the coincidence of high V (not containing ΔV) and large Bz southward does not correspond to SvSW, indicating the importance of the impulsive action of large Bz southward and high ΔV coming through when they coincide. The need for the coincidence is verified using the CRCM (Comprehensive Ring Current Model) model, that produces extreme Dst storms (

Although knowing the occurrence frequency of severe space weather events is important for a modern society, it is insufficiently known due to the lack of magnetic or sunspot observations, before the Carrington event in 1859 known as one of the largest events during the last two centuries. Here, we show that a severe magnetic storm occurred on 8 March 1582 based on auroral records in East Asia. The equatorward boundary of auroral visibility reached 28.8{\deg} magnetic latitude. The equatorward boundary of the auroral oval is estimated to be 33.0{\deg} invariant latitude (ILAT), which is comparable to the storms on 25/26 September 1909 (~31.6{\deg} ILAT, minimum Dst of -595 nT), 28/29 August 1859 (~36.5{\deg} ILAT), and 13/14 March 1989 (~40{\deg} ILAT, minimum Dst of -589 nT). Assuming that the equatorward boundary is a proxy for the scale of magnetic storms, we presume that the storm on March 1582 was severe. We also found that the storm on March 1582 lasted, at least, for three days by combining European records. The auroral oval stayed at mid-latitude for the first two days and moved to low-latitude (in East Asia) for the last day. It is plausible that the storm was caused by a series of ICMEs (interplanetary coronal mass ejections). We can reasonably speculate that a first ICME could have cleaned up interplanetary space to make the following ICMEs more geo-effective, as probably occurred in the Carrington and Halloween storms., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society; main text 10 pages, reference 5 pages, appendix 4 pages, 2 tables, and 6 figures

This work presents results from simulations of the 2000 July 14 (“Bastille Day”) solar proton event. We used the Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Model (EPREM) and the CORona-HELiosphere (CORHEL) software suite within the SPE Threat Assessment Tool (STAT) framework to model proton acceleration to GeV energies due to the passage of a CME through the low solar corona, and we compared the model results to GOES-08 observations. The coupled simulation models particle acceleration from 1 to 20 R ⊙, after which it models only particle transport. The simulation roughly reproduces the peak event fluxes and the timing and spatial location of the energetic particle event. While peak fluxes and overall variation within the first few hours of the simulation agree well with observations, the modeled CME moves beyond the inner simulation boundary after several hours. The model therefore accurately describes the acceleration processes in the low corona and resolves the sites of most rapid acceleration close to the Sun. Plots of integral flux envelopes from multiple simulated observers near Earth further improve the comparison to observations and increase potential for predicting solar particle events. Broken power-law fits to fluence spectra agree with diffusive acceleration theory over the low energy range. Over the high energy range, they demonstrate the variability in acceleration rate and mirror the interevent variability observed in solar cycle 23 ground-level enhancements. We discuss ways to improve STAT predictions, including using corrected GOES energy bins and computing fits to the seed spectrum. This paper demonstrates a predictive tool for simulating low-coronal solar energetic particle acceleration.

During the second Balloon Array for Radiation Belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) campaign two solar energetic proton (SEP) events were observed. Although BARREL was designed to observe X-rays created during electron precipitation events, it is sensitive to X-rays from other sources. The gamma lines produced when energetic protons hit the upper atmosphere are used in this paper to study SEP events. During the second SEP event starting on 7 January 2014 and lasting ∼3 days, which also had a solar energetic electron (SEE) event occurring simultaneously, BARREL had six payloads afloat spanning all magnetic local time (MLT) sectors and L values. Three payloads were in a tight array (∼2 h in MLT and ∼2 ΔL) inside the inner magnetosphere and at times conjugate in both L and MLT with the Van Allen Probes (approximately once per day). The other three payloads mapped to higher L values with one payload on open field lines for the entire event, while the other two appear to be crossing from open to closed field lines. Using the observations of the SEE and SEP events, we are able to map the open-closed boundary. Halford et al. (2015) demonstrated how BARREL can monitor electron precipitation following an interplanetary shock created by a coronal mass ejection (ICME-shock) arrival at Earth, while in this study we look at the SEP event precursor to the arrival of the ICME-Shock in our cradle-to-grave view: from flare, to SEE and SEP events, to radiation belt electron precipitation.

A statistical study has been performed on all the geomagnetic storm events caused by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) which are associated with flares from January 2010 to December 2012. The following results are obtained. The sources of the CMEs mentioned above are distributed mainly from 45°E to 45°W on the solar surface, accounting 78.95% of the total events, and most of them are distributed in the western hemisphere, thus the sources of CMEs located in the western hemisphere are more likely to cause geomagnetic effects. The X-class flares are more likely to be associated with geomagnetic effects, and geomagnetic storms will be observed in two or three days after the eruption of 60% of X-class flares, while the flares of other classes have a much lower probability to associate with geomagnetic effects, less than 10% for all of them. By analyzing all the X-class flares erupted during this period on the solar disk, it is found that for the X-class flares located from 45°E to 45°W in heliographic longitude, if there are no large-scale disturbances on the solar surface nor the accompanied CMEs during the eruptions, the probability of occurrence of geomagnetic storms after the flares will be very small. Therefore, a new method to forecast the geomagnetic storms by analyzing the observed solar image data has been proposed.

We investigate the initiation and early evolution of 12 solar eruptions, including six active region hot channel and six quiescent filament eruptions, which were well observed by the \textsl{Solar Dynamics Observatory}, as well as by the \textsl{Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory} for the latter. The sample includes one failed eruption and 11 coronal mass ejections, with velocities ranging from 493 to 2140~km~s$^{-1}$. A detailed analysis of the eruption kinematics yields the following main results. (1) The early evolution of all events consists of a slow-rise phase followed by a main-acceleration phase, the height-time profiles of which differ markedly and can be best fit, respectively, by a linear and an exponential function. This indicates that different physical processes dominate in these phases, which is at variance with models that involve a single process. (2) The kinematic evolution of the eruptions tends to be synchronized with the flare light curve in both phases. The synchronization is often but not always close. A delayed onset of the impulsive flare phase is found in the majority of the filament eruptions (5 out of 6). This delay, and its trend to be larger for slower eruptions, favor ideal MHD instability models. (3) The average decay index at the onset heights of the main acceleration is close to the threshold of the torus instability for both groups of events (although based on a tentative coronal field model for the hot channels), suggesting that this instability initiates and possibly drives the main acceleration., Accepted for publication in ApJ; 24 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables

Sudden ionospheric disturbances are transient changes in the ionosphere caused by enhancement in X-ray and EUV fluxes during solar flare events. The Solar Storm Radio Telescope is developed to detect Very Low Frequency (VLF) signals with frequency between 3-30 kHz transmitted from various VLF stations around the Globe. We will also be investigating different methods to reduce the background noise in the data collection. This will help to ensure an accurate hit when there is a sudden ionospheric disturbance.

A novel tool aimed to detect solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Lagrangian point L1 and to forecast their geoeffectiveness is presented in this paper. This approach is based on the analysis of in situ magnetic field and plasma measurements to compute some important magnetohydrodynamic quantities of the solar wind (the total pressure, the magnetic helicity, and the magnetic and kinetic energy), which are used to identify the CME events, that is their arrival and transit times, and to assess their likelihood for impacting the Earths magnetosphere. The method is essentially based on the comparison of the topological properties of the CME magnetic field configuration and of the CME energetic budget with those of the quasi-steady ambient solar wind. The algorithm performances are estimated by testing the tool on solar wind data collected in situ by the Wind spacecraft from 2005 to 2016. In the scanned 12 yr time interval, it results that (i) the procedure efficiency is of 86% for the weakest magnetospheric disturbances, increasing with the level of the geomagnetic storming, up to 100% for the most intense geomagnetic events, (ii) zero false positive predictions are produced by the algorithm, and (iii) the mean delay between the potentially geoeffective CME detection and the geomagnetic storm onset if of 4 hr, with a 98% 2-8 hr confidence interval. Hence, this new technique appears to be very promising in forecasting space weather phenomena associated to CMEs.

This chapter explores how the thermosphere and ionosphere (T-I) might respond to extreme solar events. Three different scenarios are considered: (1) an increase in solar UV and EUV radiation for a number of days, (2) an extreme enhancement in the solar X-rays and EUV radiation associated with a flare, and (3) an extreme CME driving a geomagnetic storm. Estimating the response to the first two scenarios is reasonably well defined, and although they would certainly impact the T-I system, those impacts could potentially be mitigated. In contrast, the response to an extreme geomagnetic storm is significantly more complicated, making the response much more uncertain, and mitigation more challenging. The question is, if an 1859 Carrington-level CME hit Earth, how might the thermosphere and ionosphere respond? Firstly, the response would be dependent upon how the magnetosphere reacts and channels the energy into the upper atmosphere. The assumption is the magnetospheric convection and auroral precipitation inputs would look similar to the 2003 Halloween or 2000 Bastille Day storms, but stronger and more expanded towards middle latitudes. For a Halloween or Bastille-level geomagnetic storm, the sequence of physical processes in the thermosphere and ionosphere are mostly understood, and the physics-based models have been tuned for this level of event. For an extreme solar storm, it is unclear what the magnitude of the driving forces would be, and if the T-I response would be a natural linear extrapolation or if nonlinear processes would begin to dominate. A numerical simulation has been performed with a coupled thermosphere ionosphere model to quantify the likely response to an extreme geomagnetic storm. The simulation predicts the neutral atmosphere would experience horizontal winds of 1500 m s−1, vertical winds exceeding 150 m s−1, and large increases in neutral density with the “top” of the thermosphere (where collisions no longer dominate) rising to well above 1000 km. The expansion of the atmosphere during an extreme event and the increase in neutral density has the direct effect of enhancing drag on a spacecraft, changing its orbit, and raising the uncertainty of its position. With the proliferation of space debris, the challenge of collision avoidance is of mounting concern, which further raises the importance of accurate orbit prediction. Predicting the ionosphere response is more challenging because there is significant uncertainty in quantifying some of the other driver-response relationships, such as the magnitude and shielding time-scale of the penetration electric field, and the possible feedback to the magnetosphere. Total electron content at mid latitude could exceed 1000 TEC units, which together with steep gradients and more structure will severely impact critical communications and satellite navigation accuracy.

Atmospheric 14C production is a potential window into the energy of solar proton and other cosmic ray events. It was previously concluded that results from AD 774-775 are orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We find that the coronal mass ejection energy based on 14C production is much smaller than claimed, but still substantially larger than the maximum historical Carrington Event of 1859. Such an event would cause great damage to modern technology, and in view of recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention., Published online Nature Nov 29, 2012

We present a detailed study on a solar storm occurred on 2014 January 7. By using the remote-sensing observations of solar activities at multiple wavelengths from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the eruptions of the solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) are investigated. Based on the measurement of energetic protons from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and the in-situ plasma measurement from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) at the solar-terrestrial L1 point, the solar energetic particle (SEP) event and interplanetary CME (ICME) accompanied by the solar storm, and the shock driven by the ICME are analyzed. The influence of the solar storm on the geomagnetic fields is also analyzed with the ground-based magnetic data. The results in this study show that: (1) The initial time of impulsive phase of the solar flare and the ejection time of the CME are temporally in accordance with each other. (2) The solar protons are mainly accelerated by the CME-driven shock, rather than by the magnetic reconnection in the flare, and the protons are released when the CME travels to 7.7 solar radius. (3) The widths of the interplanetary shock sheath and the ICME itself are derived to be 0.22 AU and 0.26 AU, respectively. (4) The interplanetary shock and the ICME give rise to substorms and aurora, whereas no obvious geomagnetic storm is detected. The reason is that the ICME does not contain a regular structure of magnetic cloud (MC) or evident southward component of magnetic field.

The shock wave of the traveling mass of solar energetic particles causes geomagnetic storms that may disrupt the Earth’s magnetosphere. In the present paper, we have analyzed five major geomagnetic storms (disturbance storm time

This paper is highlighted on the duration of time for the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) to occur related to solar flare event and the class of solar burst type III that present within the two phenomenon. It is important to understand the evaluations of solar flare until CMEs mean to be appearing and know the basic characterization of solar radio burst type III. It can be observed that CME is even larger than the sun itself. At certain period of time, when the Sun launches billons tones of electrically conducting gas plasma into the space at millions of miles per hours it is assigned that CMEs begin to launch. The data on 23rd of April was selected whereby; solar radio burst type 3 was detected (about 17:36 UT – 17:44 UT). At 17:40 solar flare with a radio burst and CMEs were produced by the sun. Associated with this event, current condition of solar wind speed is 359.5 km/sec with density of 6.0 protons/ and sunspot number are 118. Those at the high latitude have a chance of aurora due to the small geomagnetic storm.

A complex solid torus model was developed in order to be able to study an extreme solar storm, the so-called "Great Storm" or "New York Railroad Storm" of May 1921, when neither high spatial and time resolution magnetic field measurements, solar flare nor coronal mass ejection observations were available. We suggest that a topological change happened in connection with the occurrence of the extreme solar storm. The solar storm caused one of the most severe space weather effects ever.

The phase distribution of all strong X-ray flares from 1976 to 2013 and the flares in the current 24th cycle have been investigated. It is concluded that, until around 2019, mid-level M-class flares and strong (up to X8 class) flares can be expected. Stronger flares may also occur. Superflares like the Carrington event are unlikely.

The solar flares, the speeds of shocks propagated in the solar-terrestrial space and driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the heliographic longitudes and Carrington longitudes of source regions, and the geomagnetic storms, which are accompanied by the super solar proton events with a peak flux equal to or exceeding 10 000 pfu, have been studied by using the data of ground-based and space observations. The results show that the heliographic longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the range from E30 to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitudinal belts, 130°∼220° and 260°∼320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1 200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), except that one super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with the geomagnetic activity index Dst=−96 nT, a little smaller than that of major geomagnetic storms.

We could identify three categories of solar proton events (SPE) with distinct solar origin from an analysis of direct and indirect observations during the years 1561-2016 CE spanning 42 sunspot cycles. They are (i) 10 MeV SPE whose number of occurrences closely follow the sunspot cycles (ii) 30 MeV SPE which show secular changes with peaks near Gleissberg solar cycle minima and inferred to be associated with distinct enhancements in the efficiency of the solar dynamo and (iii) those associated with Impulsive and irregular solar activity changes such as the Carrington event of September 1859. The relevance of above results for stars exhibiting cyclic and irregular activity changes will be also discussed.

Observations from the Kepler mission have revealed frequent superflares on young and active solar-like stars. Superflares result from the large-scale restructuring of stellar magnetic fields, and are associated with the eruption of coronal material (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) and energy release that can be orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the largest solar flares. These catastrophic events, if frequent, can significantly impact the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets through atmospheric erosion or intense radiation exposure at the surface. We present results from numerical modeling designed to understand how an eruptive superflare from a young solar-type star, $\kappa^{1}Cet$, could occur and would impact its astrospheric environment. Our data-inspired, three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling shows that global-scale shear concentrated near the radial-field polarity inversion line can energize the closed-field stellar corona sufficiently to power a global, eruptive superflare that releases approximately the same energy as the extreme 1859 Carrington event from the Sun. We examine proxy measures of synthetic emission during the flare and estimate the observational signatures of our CME-driven shock, both of which could have extreme space-weather impacts on the habitability of any Earth-like exoplanets. We also speculate that the observed 1986 Robinson-Bopp superflare from $\kappa^{1}Cet$ was perhaps as extreme for that star as the Carrington flare was for the Sun., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

This work introduces a deep space mission of the great significance on the aspects of sciences and applications. Success of this mission will allow us to observe and detect the magnetic activities and the reconnection region occurring on a star at an unprecedentedly short distance by combining the remote sensing and the in situ approaches. First of all, we propose to access the core of the energy release region for the solar storm, namely the reconnecting current sheet, detecting and measuring fine structures and details of several important processes that include the magnetic diffusion, energy conversion, charged particle accelerations, and so on. Second, we shall perform the in situ measurement of components and distributions of the plasma and magnetic field inside the coronal mass ejection (CME, also known as the solar storm), helping us investigate and study the mechanism of CME and the original source of the plasma inside CME; detect the radio bursts caused by the energetic particles produced by reconnection in the current sheet and the CME-driven shock, collect these particles, and perform the in situ measurements of the CME-driven shock. Third, we shall measure the coronal magnetic field directly at the helio-distance ranging from 5$R_{\\rm~odot}$ to 10$R_{\\rm~odot}$, which is a key for looking into the energetics and dynamics of the solar eruption, and will further help as well resolve the problem of the corona heating, a century-long puzzle for solar physicists. Fourth, applying the method of imagining and spectroscopy, we are able to observe and study the dynamic process taking place in the high layer of the solar atmosphere with fairly high resolution. Usually, the highest resolution of observing the corona on the ground is around 1.5 arc-second ($1.5^{\\prime\\prime}$), and this value is lower in most of the cases, the in situ measurements at very short distance would enhance the resolution by a factor between 5 and 30. This will provide us an opportunity to study, look into, and understand the closest and the most important star to us at an unprecedentedly high level, and eventually help resolve the long-term problem and the puzzle like triggering of the solar eruption, magnetic reconnection, and corona heating. This is also a unique chance for us to look closely at or to perform the in situ measurement of the magnetic reconnection process taking place in the atmosphere of a star.

Based on hourly data of solar energetic particles (velocity and density), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component, and derived IMF orientations, e.g. IMF cone angle and clock angle, we studied their relations within 155 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst index less than -100 nT) during years 2009 to 2016 of solar cycle 24. The importance of negative and southward Bz was confirmed. It is suggested that strong geomagnetic storm also depends on IMF orientation angles, especially perpendicular IMF Bz. However, strong storms is not correlated with fast proton speed, which is aligned with perpendicular or parallel IMF cone angle. In the future, we can use those derived equations for prediction of solar storm.

The modulation of 7Be-aerosols concentration due to solar activity during the cycle 23 is studied in the present research. For that purpose, was analyzed the differences in the long-term variation of geomagnetic and solar activity to assess the physical effects over the evolution of 7Be during the period 1996–2010. Furthermore, exploratory data analysis was applied to understand better the behavior of 7Be-aerosols in the surface atmosphere. This study shows that there is an inverse relationship among 7Be measured in the near ground air and solar activity. The modulation of 7Be-aerosols during the cycle 23 was divided in two steps. In the first stage, ascending phase, 1996–2002, the solar activity played an important role in the production rate of 7Be, r = −0.75. However, during the descending phase, 2002–2009, the role of the solar activity was secondary, r = −0.30, allowing that 7Be-aerosols reached the maximum concentration, 9.33 mBq m−3 in August-09 when the solar activity was zero. Moreover, the remaining solar activity after the end of the ascending phase and the last important solar storm (December-06) caused the slowdown of 7Be production rate from 2001 to 2004 and the rupture of the seasonal behavior of 7Be in 2007, respectively. Finally, this research highlight the necessity to take into account the solar cycle phase, ascending or descending, to model studies of atmospheric process with 7Be as tracer since the contribution of the variables studied are so different in these stages.

The magnetic storm around 1859 September 2, caused by so-called Carrington flare, was the most intense in the history of modern scientific observations, and hence is considered to be the benchmark event for space weather. The magnetic storm caused worldwide observations of auroras even at very low latitudes such as Hawaii, Panama, or Santiago, and the available magnetic field measurement at Bombay, India, showed two peaks: the main was the Carrington event which occurred in day time in East Asia, and a second storm after the Carrington event which occurred at night in East Asia. In this paper, we present a result from surveys of aurora records in East Asia, which provides new information of the aurora activity of this important event. We found some new East Asian records of low latitude aurora observations caused by the storm which occurred after the Carrington event. The size of the aurora belt of the second peak of the Carrington magnetic storm was even wider than usual low-latitude aurora events., 2016/08/26 accepted for publication in PASJ. Due to the matter of license, we cannot show some figures on the preprint version. Please see the published version in PASJ for the figures

When solar storms strike, they weaken Earth's defenses against harmful radiation. New satellite measurements reveal just how much.

Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection‐driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching −223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching −204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high‐energy (E ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong “butterfly” distributions with deep minima in flux at α = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported “impenetrable barrier” at L ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis., Key Points March and June 2015 storms offer insight into ultrarelativistic electron dynamicsImpenetrable barrier can be pushed inward, still isolates high‐E electrons from inner zoneMulti‐MeV electrons take 1‐2 days to appear following these strong driving events.

The Carrington storm in 1859 is considered to be the major geomagnetic disturbance related to solar activity. In a recent paper, Cid et al. (2015) discovered a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba, but at a mid-latitude observatory, leading to a re- interpretation of the 1859 event. Based on those results, this paper performs a deep search for other 'Carrington-like' events and analyses interplanetary observations leading to the ground disturbances which emerged from the systematic analysis. The results of this study based on two Carrington-like events (1) reinforce the awareness about the possibility of missing hazardous space weather events as the large H-spike recorded at Colaba by using global geomagnetic indices, (2) argue against the role of the ring current as the major current involved in Carrington-like events, leaving field- aligned currents (FACs) as the main current involved, and (3) propose abrupt southward reversals of IMF along with high solar wind pressure as the interplanetary trigger of a Carrington-like event., Accepted in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (SWSC)

We study the solar energetic particle (SEP) event associated with the 2012 July 23 extreme solar storm, for which STEREO and the spacecraft at L1 provide multi-point remote sensing and in situ observations. The extreme solar storm, with a superfast shock and extremely enhanced ejecta magnetic fields observed near 1 AU at STEREO A, was caused by the combination of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Meanwhile, energetic particles were observed by STEREO and near-Earth spacecraft such as ACE and SOHO, suggestive of a wide longitudinal spread of the particles at 1 AU. Combining the SEP observations with in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements we investigate the longitudinal distribution of the SEP event in connection with the associated shock and CMEs. Our results underscore the complex magnetic configuration of the inner heliosphere formed by solar eruptions. The examinations of particle intensities, proton anisotropy distributions, element abundance ratios, magnetic connectivity and spectra also give important clues for the particle acceleration, transport and distribution., Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ

On March 31st. 2001, a coronal mass ejection pushed the subsolar magnetopause to the vicinity of geosynchronous orbit at 6.6 RE. The NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMe) employed a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model to simulate the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction during the peak of this geomagnetic storm. Robertson et aL then modeled the expected 50ft X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange with geocoronal neutrals in the dayside cusp and magnetosheath. The locations of the bow shock, magnetopause and cusps were clearly evident in their simulations. Another geomagnetic storm took place on July 14, 2000 (Bastille Day). We again modeled X-ray emission due to solar wind charge exchange, but this time as observed from a moving spacecraft. This paper discusses the impact of spacecraft location on observed X-ray emission and the degree to which the locations of the bow shock and magnetopause can be detected in images.

The distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−200 nT) and super geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−300 nT) across the solar cycles (19–23) are investigated. The results show that 73.2% of the great geomagnetic storms took place in the descending phase of the solar cycles. 72.7% of super geomagnetic storms occurred in the descending phase of the solar cycles. About 83% of the great geomagnetic storms appeared during the period from the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak time. 90.9% of the super geomagnetic storms appeared between the two years before solar cycle peak and the three years after solar cycle peak. When a solar cycle is very strong, the phenomenon that great geomagnetic storms concentrated during the period from the two years before the solar cycle peak time to the three years after the solar cycle peak time is very prominent. The launch time of space science satellite is suggested according to the distribution properties of great geomagnetic storms and super geomagnetic storms in solar cycles.

Radiation exposure estimates for crew members on the surface of Mars are made for solar particle event proton radiation environments comparable to the Carrington event of 1859. We assume that the proton energy distributions for these Carrington-type events are similar to those measured for other, more recent large events. The fluence levels of these hypothetical events are normalized to the value for the Carrington event, as reported from measurements in ice core data. In this work, we use the BRYNTRN radiation transport code, originally developed at NASA Langley Research Center, and the Computerized Anatomical Male and Female human geometry models to estimate exposures for aluminum shield areal densities similar to those provided by a spacesuit, a surface lander, and a permanent habitat located at various altitudes in the Mars atmosphere. Comparisons of the predicted organ exposures with current NASA Permissible Exposure Limits are made.

The current notions of the solar-terrestrial relations responsible for the transport of solar disturbances and for the generation of magnetic storms on the Earth are briefly reviewed. The probability of generating magnetic storms by different solar and interplanetary phenomena is quantitatively estimated. The efficiencies of generating magnetic storms by different types of solar wind streams are compared.

Descriptions of eleven aurorae observed in the Canary Islands during the period 1770 – 2010 have been found in different documents. Most of them are coincident with periods of strong solar activity, with the geomagnetic latitude playing a minor role. Coronal mass ejections are the most probable solar source of these low-latitude events. The absence of low-latitude aurorae is verified in our sample during the Dalton Minimum and the first half of the twentieth century.

Main sequence M stars pose an interesting problem for astrobiology: their abundance in our galaxy makes them likely targets in the hunt for habitable planets, but their strong chromospheric activity produces high energy radiation and charged particles that may be detrimental to life. We studied the impact of the 1985 April 12 flare from the M dwarf, AD Leonis (AD Leo), simulating the effects from both UV radiation and protons on the atmospheric chemistry of a hypothetical, Earth-like planet located within its habitable zone. Based on observations of solar proton events and the Neupert effect we estimated a proton flux associated with the flare of $5.9\times 10^{8}$ protons cm$^{-2}$ sr$^{-1}$ s$^{-1}$ for particles with energies >10 MeV. Then we calculated the abundance of nitrogen oxides produced by the flare by scaling the production of these compounds during a large solar proton event called the "Carrington event". The simulations were performed using a 1-D photochemical model coupled to a 1-D radiative/convective model. Our results indicate that the ultraviolet radiation emitted during the flare does not produce a significant change in the ozone column depth of the planet. When the action of protons is included, the ozone depletion reached a maximum of 94% two years after the flare for a planet with no magnetic field. At the peak of the flare, the calculated UV fluxes that reach the surface, in the wavelength ranges that are damaging for life, exceed those received on Earth during less than 100 s. Flares may therefore not present a direct hazard for life on the surface of an orbiting habitable planet. Given that AD Leo is one of the most magnetically-active M dwarfs known, this conclusion should apply to planets around other M dwarfs with lower levels of chromospheric activity., Astrobiology, accepted. 27 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching −263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.

The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space–weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of 1859 September, the so-called "Carrington Event." However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in 1872 February. This storm, which occurred about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of the auroral and sunspot records in historical documents from East Asia. In particular, we have surveyed the auroral records from East Asia and estimated the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval to be near 242 invariant latitude, on the basis that the aurora was seen near the zenith at Shanghai (20° magnetic latitude, MLAT). These results confirm that this geomagnetic storm of 1872 February was as extreme as the Carrington Event, at least in terms of the equatorward motion of the auroral oval. Indeed, our results support the interpretation of the simultaneous auroral observations made at Bombay (10° MLAT). The East Asian auroral records have indicated extreme brightness, suggesting unusual precipitation of high-intensity, low-energy electrons during this geomagnetic storm. We have compared the duration of the East Asian auroral displays with magnetic observations in Bombay and found that the auroral displays occurred in the initial phase, main phase, and early recovery phase of the magnetic storm.

The change of spectral decomposition of the total radiative output on various timescales of solar magnetic activity is of large interest to terrestrial and solar-stellar atmosphere studies. Starting in 2002, SCIAMACHY was the first satellite instrument to observe daily solar spectral irradiance (SSI) continuously from 230 nm (UV) to 1750 nm (near-infrared; near-IR). In order to address the question of how much UV, visible (vis), and IR spectral regions change on 27 day and 11 year timescales, we parameterize short-term SSI variations in terms of faculae brightening (Mg II index) and sunspot darkening (photometric sunspot index) proxies. Although spectral variations above 300 nm are below 1% and, therefore, well below the accuracy of absolute radiometric calibration, relative accuracy for short-term changes is shown to be in the per mill range. This enables us to derive short-term spectral irradiance variations from the UV to the near-IR. During Halloween solar storm in 2003 with a record high sunspot area, we observe a reduction of 0.3% in the near-IR to 0.5% in the vis and near-UV. This is consistent with a 0.4% reduction in total solar irradiance (TSI). Over an entire 11 year solar cycle, SSI variability covering simultaneously the UV, vis, andmore » IR spectral regions have not been directly observed so far. Using variations of solar proxies over solar cycle 23, solar cycle spectral variations have been estimated using scaling factors that best matched short-term variations of SCIAMACHY. In the 300-400 nm region, which strongly contributes to TSI solar cycle change, a contribution of 34% is derived from SCIAMACHY observations, which is lower than the reported values from SUSIM satellite data and the empirical SATIRE model. The total UV contribution (below 400 nm) to TSI solar cycle variations is estimated to be 55%.« less

In computer codes used to estimate the aircrew radiation exposure from galactic cosmic radiation, a quiet sun model is usually assumed. A revised computer code (PCAIRE ver. 8.0f) is used to calculate the impact of noisy sun conditions on aircrew radiation exposure. The revised code incorporates the effect of solar storm activity, which can perturb the geomagnetic field lines, altering cutoff rigidities and hence the shielding capability of the Earth’s magnetic field. The effect of typical solar storm conditions on aircrew radiation exposure is shown to be minimal justifying the usual assumptions.

A retrospective analysis of the Russian magnetic observations of the Carrington event that occurred on September 2–3, 1859, has been performed. The conclusion has been made that this event was caused by the series of three recurrent eruptive solar flares during ∼40 h. The characteristics of the geomagnetic crochet, related to a considerable flux of the ionizing electromagnetic radiation during this flare, have been studied. The value and direction of a magnetic field disturbance, registered during the maximum of the geomagnetic storm of September 2, unambiguously indicate that all Russian stations were in the auroral oval zone, which was strongly expanded southward from its average position. The disturbance dependence on the station longitude—the absence of magnetometer pinning in Nerchinsk—is interpreted as the possible manifestation of a strong asymmetry in the effective contour of the current system, which was connected to the heliosphere and covered the disturbed magnetosphere and ionosphere during the short period that lasted only 1–3 h.

The Forbush effects associated with far western and eastern powerful sources on the Sun that occurred on the background of unsettled and moderate interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances have been studied by data from neutron monitor networks and relevant measurements of the solar wind parameters. These Forbush effects may be referred to a special sub-class of events, with the characteristics like the event in July 2005, and incorporated by the common conditions: absence of a significant disturbance in the Earth vicinity; absence of a strong geomagnetic storm; slow decrease of cosmic ray intensity during the main phase of the Forbush effect. General features and separate properties in behavior of density and anisotropy of 10 GV cosmic rays for this subclass are investigated.

We briefly review data on observations of the Sun, interplanetary medium, and magnetosphere, obtained by participants of the “Solar Extreme Events in 2004 (SEE’04)” collaboration before and during one of the strongest (4th in the 23rd solar cycle) magnetic storm of November 08, 2004 with Dst = - 373 nT .

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth's environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D-st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D-st