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Introduction: Previous analysis from the large European multicentre ESCAPE study showed an association of ambient particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) air pollution exposure at residence with the incidence of gastric cancer. It is unclear which components of PM are most relevant for gastric and also upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer and some of them may not be strongly correlated with PM mass. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to elemental components of PM 2.5 and PM 10 and gastric and UADT cancer incidence in European adults., Methods: Baseline addresses of individuals were geocoded and exposure was assessed by land-use regression models for copper (Cu), iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) representing non-tailpipe traffic emissions; sulphur (S) indicating long-range transport; nickel (Ni) and vanadium (V) for mixed oil-burning and industry; silicon (Si) for crustal material and potassium (K) for biomass burning. Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders were used for cohort-specific analyses. Combined estimates were determined with random effects meta-analyses., Results: Ten cohorts in six countries contributed data on 227,044 individuals with an average follow-up of 14.9 years with 633 incident cases of gastric cancer and 763 of UADT cancer. The combined hazard ratio (HR) for an increase of 200 ng/m 3 of PM 2.5 &#95;S was 1.92 (95%-confidence interval (95%-CI) 1.13;3.27) for gastric cancer, with no indication of heterogeneity between cohorts (I 2  = 0%), and 1.63 (95%-CI 0.88;3.01) for PM 2.5 &#95;Zn (I 2  = 70%). For the other elements in PM 2.5 and all elements in PM 10 including PM 10 &#95;S, non-significant HRs between 0.78 and 1.21 with mostly wide CIs were seen. No association was found between any of the elements and UADT cancer. The HR for PM 2.5 &#95;S and gastric cancer was robust to adjustment for additional factors, including diet, and restriction to study participants with stable addresses over follow-up resulted in slightly higher effect estimates with a decrease in precision. In a two-pollutant model, the effect estimate for total PM 2.5 decreased whereas that for PM 2.5 &#95;S was robust., Conclusion: This large multicentre cohort study shows a robust association between gastric cancer and long-term exposure to PM 2.5 &#95;S but not PM 10 &#95;S, suggesting that S in PM 2.5 or correlated air pollutants may contribute to the risk of gastric cancer., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Epidemiological evidence on the association between ambient air pollution and brain tumor risk is sparse and inconsistent., Methods: In 12 cohorts from 6 European countries, individual estimates of annual mean air pollution levels at the baseline residence were estimated by standardized land-use regression models developed within the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects: particulate matter (PM) ≤2.5, ≤10, and 2.5-10 μm in diameter (PM2.5, PM10, and PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx) and elemental composition of PM. We estimated cohort-specific associations of air pollutant concentrations and traffic intensity with total, malignant, and nonmalignant brain tumor, in separate Cox regression models, adjusting for risk factors, and pooled cohort-specific estimates using random-effects meta-analyses., Results: Of 282194 subjects from 12 cohorts, 466 developed malignant brain tumors during 12 years of follow-up. Six of the cohorts also had data on nonmalignant brain tumor, where among 106786 subjects, 366 developed brain tumor: 176 nonmalignant and 190 malignant. We found a positive, statistically nonsignificant association between malignant brain tumor and PM2.5 absorbance (hazard ratio and 95% CI: 1.67; 0.89-3.14 per 10-5/m3), and weak positive or null associations with the other pollutants. Hazard ratio for PM2.5 absorbance (1.01; 0.38-2.71 per 10-5/m3) and all other pollutants were lower for nonmalignant than for malignant brain tumors., Conclusion: We found suggestive evidence of an association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 absorbance indicating traffic-related air pollution and malignant brain tumors, and no association with overall or nonmalignant brain tumors., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology.)

Background: The evidence from observational epidemiological studies of a link between long-term air pollution exposure and diabetes prevalence and incidence is currently mixed. Some studies found the strongest associations of diabetes with fine particles, other studies with nitrogen dioxide and some studies found no associations., Objectives: Our aim was to investigate associations between long-term exposure to multiple air pollutants and diabetes prevalence in a large national survey in the Netherlands., Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis using the 2012 Dutch national health survey to investigate the associations between the 2009 annual average concentrations of multiple air pollutants (PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 10-2.5 , PM 2.5 absorbance, OP DTT , OP ESR and NO 2 ) and diabetes prevalence, among 289,703 adults. Air pollution exposure was assessed by land use regression models. Diabetes was defined based on a combined measure of self-reported physician diagnosis and medication prescription from an external database. Using logistic regression, we adjusted for potential confounders, including neighborhood- and individual socio-economic status and lifestyle-related risk factors such as smoking habits, alcohol consumption, physical activity and BMI., Results: After adjustment for potential confounders, all pollutants (except PM 2.5 ) were associated with diabetes prevalence. In two-pollutant models, NO 2 and OP DTT remained associated with increased diabetes prevalence. For NO 2 and OP DTT , single-pollutant ORs per interquartile range were 1.07 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.09) and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.10), respectively. Stratified analysis showed no consistent effect modification by any of the included known diabetes risk factors., Conclusions: Long-term residential air pollution exposure was associated with diabetes prevalence in a large health survey in the Netherlands, strengthening the evidence of air pollution being an important diabetes risk factor. Most consistent associations were observed for NO 2 and oxidative potential of PM 2.5 measured by the DTT assay. The finding of an association with the oxidative potential of fine particles but not with PM 2.5 , suggests that particle composition may be important for a potential effect on diabetes., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Both dispersion modeling (DM) and land-use regression modeling (LUR) are often used for assessment of long-term air pollution exposure in epidemiological studies, but seldom in combination. We developed a hybrid DM-LUR model using 93 biweekly observations of NO x at 31 sites in greater Stockholm (Sweden). The DM was based on spatially resolved topographic, physiographic and emission data, and hourly meteorological data from a diagnostic wind model. Other data were from land use, meteorology and routine monitoring of NO x . We built a linear regression model for NO x , using a stepwise forward selection of covariates. The resulting model predicted observed NO x (R 2 =0.89) better than the DM without covariates (R 2 =0.68, P-interaction <0.001) and with minimal apparent bias. The model included (in descending order of importance) DM, traffic intensity on the nearest street, population (number of inhabitants) within 100 m radius, global radiation (direct sunlight plus diffuse or scattered light) and urban contribution to NO x levels (routine urban NO x , less routine rural NO x ). Our results indicate that there is a potential for improving estimates of air pollutant concentrations based on DM, by incorporating further spatial characteristics of the immediate surroundings, possibly accounting for imperfections in the emission data.

Background: Tobacco smoke exposure increases the risk of cancer in the liver, but little is known about the possible risk associated with exposure to ambient air pollution., Objectives: We evaluated the association between residential exposure to air pollution and primary liver cancer incidence., Methods: We obtained data from four cohorts with enrolment during 1985-2005 in Denmark, Austria and Italy. Exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO 2 and NO X ), particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10µm (PM 10 ), less than 2.5µm (PM 2.5 ), between 2.5 and 10µm (PM 2.5-10 ) and PM 2.5 absorbance (soot) at baseline home addresses were estimated using land-use regression models from the ESCAPE project. We also investigated traffic density on the nearest road. We used Cox proportional-hazards models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random-effects meta-analyses to estimate summary hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: Out of 174,770 included participants, 279 liver cancer cases were diagnosed during a mean follow-up of 17 years. In each cohort, HRs above one were observed for all exposures with exception of PM 2.5 absorbance and traffic density. In the meta-analysis, all exposures were associated with elevated HRs, but none of the associations reached statistical significance. The summary HR associated with a 10-μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 was 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93, 1.30) and 1.34 (95% CI: 0.76, 2.35) for a 5-μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 ., Conclusions: The results provide suggestive evidence that ambient air pollution may increase the risk of liver cancer. Confidence intervals for associations with NO 2 and NO X were narrower than for the other exposures., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is a human lung carcinogen; however, the components responsible have not been identified. We assessed the associations between PM components and lung cancer incidence., Methods: We used data from 14 cohort studies in eight European countries. We geocoded baseline addresses and assessed air pollution with land-use regression models for eight elements (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V and Zn) in size fractions of PM2.5 and PM10. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effect models for meta-analysis., Results: The 245,782 cohort members contributed 3,229,220 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean, 13.1 years), 1878 incident cases of lung cancer were diagnosed. In the meta-analyses, elevated hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer were associated with all elements except V; none was statistically significant. In analyses restricted to participants who did not change residence during follow-up, statistically significant associations were found for PM2.5 Cu (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.53 per 5 ng/m(3)), PM10 Zn (1.28; 1.02-1.59 per 20 ng/m(3)), PM10 S (1.58; 1.03-2.44 per 200 ng/m(3)), PM10 Ni (1.59; 1.12-2.26 per 2 ng/m(3)) and PM10 K (1.17; 1.02-1.33 per 100 ng/m(3)). In two-pollutant models, associations between PM10 and PM2.5 and lung cancer were largely explained by PM2.5 S., Conclusions: This study indicates that the association between PM in air pollution and lung cancer can be attributed to various PM components and sources. PM containing S and Ni might be particularly important., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Leave-one-out cross-validation that fails to account for variable selection does not properly reflect prediction accuracy when the number of training sites is small. The impact on health effect estimates has rarely been studied. The objective of this study was to develop an improved validation procedure for land-use regression models with variable selection and investigate health effect estimates in relation to land-use regression model performance., Methods: We randomly generated 10 training and test sets for nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter. For each training set, we developed models and evaluated them using a cross-holdout validation approach. Cross-holdout validation develops new models for each evaluation compared with refitting the model without variable selection, as in standard leave-one-out cross-validation. We also implemented holdout validation, which evaluates model predictions using independent test sets. We evaluated the relationship between cross-holdout validation and holdout validation R and estimates of the association between air pollution and forced vital capacity in the Dutch birth cohort., Results: Cross-holdout validation Rs were generally identical to holdout validation Rs, but were notably smaller than leave-one-out cross-validation Rs. Decreases in forced vital capacity in relation to air pollution exposure were larger for land-use regression models that had larger holdout validation and cross-holdout validation Rs rather than leave-one-out cross-validation R., Conclusion: Cross-holdout validation accurately reflects predictive ability of land-use regression models and is a useful validation approach for small datasets. Land-use regression predictive ability in terms of holdout validation and cross-holdout validation rather than leave-one-out cross-validation was associated with the magnitude of health effect estimates in a case study., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Background: The health effects of suspended particulate matter (PM) may depend on its chemical composition. Associations between maternal exposure to chemical constituents of PM and newborn's size have been little examined., Objective: We aimed to investigate the associations of exposure to elemental constituents of PM with term low birth weight (LBW; weight < 2,500 g among births after 37 weeks of gestation), mean birth weight, and head circumference, relying on standardized fine-scale exposure assessment and with extensive control for potential confounders., Methods: We pooled data from eight European cohorts comprising 34,923 singleton births in 1994-2008. Annual average concentrations of elemental constituents of PM ≤ 2.5 and ≤ 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10) at maternal home addresses during pregnancy were estimated using land-use regression models. Adjusted associations between each birth measurement and concentrations of eight elements (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc) were calculated using random-effects regression on pooled data., Results: A 200-ng/m3 increase in sulfur in PM2.5 was associated with an increased risk of LBW (adjusted odds ratio = 1.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.58). Increased nickel and zinc in PM2.5 concentrations were also associated with an increased risk of LBW. Head circumference was reduced at higher exposure to all elements except potassium. All associations with sulfur were most robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass concentration. All results were similar for PM10., Conclusion: Sulfur, reflecting secondary combustion particles in this study, may adversely affect LBW and head circumference, independently of particle mass., Citation: Pedersen M, Gehring U, Beelen R, Wang M, Giorgis-Allemand L, Andersen AM, Basagaña X, Bernard C, Cirach M, Forastiere F, de Hoogh K, Gražulevičienė R, Gruzieva O, Hoek G, Jedynska A, Klümper C, Kooter IM, Krämer U, Kukkonen J, Porta D, Postma DS, Raaschou-Nielsen O, van Rossem L, Sunyer J, Sørensen M, Tsai MY, Vrijkotte TG, Wilhelm M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Pershagen G, Brunekreef B, Kogevinas M, Slama R. 2016. Elemental constituents of particulate matter and newborn's size in eight European cohorts. Environ Health Perspect 124:141-150; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409546.

Background: Prenatal exposure to air pollutants has been suggested as a possible etiologic factor for the occurrence of autism spectrum disorder., Objectives: We aimed to assess whether prenatal air pollution exposure is associated with childhood autistic traits in the general population., Methods: Ours was a collaborative study of four European population-based birth/child cohorts-CATSS (Sweden), Generation R (the Netherlands), GASPII (Italy), and INMA (Spain). Nitrogen oxides (NO2, NOx) and particulate matter (PM) with diameters of ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤ 10 μm (PM10), and between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM(coarse)), and PM2.5 absorbance were estimated for birth addresses by land-use regression models based on monitoring campaigns performed between 2008 and 2011. Levels were extrapolated back in time to exact pregnancy periods. We quantitatively assessed autistic traits when the child was between 4 and 10 years of age. Children were classified with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range and within the clinical range using validated cut-offs. Adjusted cohort-specific effect estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analysis., Results: A total of 8,079 children were included. Prenatal air pollution exposure was not associated with autistic traits within the borderline/clinical range (odds ratio = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.10 per each 10-μg/m3 increase in NO2 pregnancy levels). Similar results were observed in the different cohorts, for the other pollutants, and in assessments of children with autistic traits within the clinical range or children with autistic traits as a quantitative score., Conclusions: Prenatal exposure to NO2 and PM was not associated with autistic traits in children from 4 to 10 years of age in four European population-based birth/child cohort studies., Citation: Guxens M, Ghassabian A, Gong T, Garcia-Esteban R, Porta D, Giorgis-Allemand L, Almqvist C, Aranbarri A, Beelen R, Badaloni C, Cesaroni G, de Nazelle A, Estarlich M, Forastiere F, Forns J, Gehring U, Ibarluzea J, Jaddoe VW, Korek M, Lichtenstein P, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Rebagliato M, Slama R, Tiemeier H, Verhulst FC, Volk HE, Pershagen G, Brunekreef B, Sunyer J. 2016. Air pollution exposure during pregnancy and childhood autistic traits in four European population-based cohort studies: the ESCAPE Project. Environ Health Perspect 124:133-140; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408483.

Background: Oxidative potential (OP) has been suggested to be a more health-relevant metric than particulate matter (PM) mass. Land use regression (LUR) models can estimate long-term exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies, but few have been developed for OP., Objectives: We aimed to characterize the spatial contrasts of two OP methods and to develop and evaluate LUR models to assess long-term exposure to the OP of PM2.5., Methods: Three 2-week PM2.5 samples were collected at 10 regional background, 12 urban background, and 18 street sites spread over the Netherlands/Belgium in 1 year and analyzed for OP using electron spin resonance (OP(ESR)) and dithiothreitol (OP(DTT)). LUR models were developed using temporally adjusted annual averages and a range of land-use and traffic-related GIS variables., Results: Street/urban background site ratio was 1.2 for OP(DTT) and 1.4 for OP(ESR), whereas regional/urban background ratio was 0.8 for both. OP(ESR) correlated moderately with OP(DTT) (R2 = 0.35). The LUR models included estimated regional background OP, local traffic, and large-scale urbanity with explained variance (R2) of 0.60 for OP(DTT) and 0.67 for OP(ESR). OP(DTT) and OP(ESR) model predictions were moderately correlated (R2 = 0.44). OP model predictions were moderately to highly correlated with predictions from a previously published PM2.5 model (R2 = 0.37-0.52), and highly correlated with predictions from previously published models of traffic components (R2 > 0.50)., Conclusion: LUR models explained a large fraction of the spatial variation of the two OP metrics. The moderate correlations among the predictions of OP(DTT), OP(ESR), and PM2.5 models offer the potential to investigate which metric is the strongest predictor of health effects., Citation: Yang A, Wang M, Eeftens M, Beelen R, Dons E, Leseman DL, Brunekreef B, Cassee FR, Janssen NA, Hoek G. 2015. Spatial variation and land use regression modeling of the oxidative potential of fine particles. Environ Health Perspect 123:1187-1192; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408916.

Background: Micronuclei (MN) are biomarkers of early genetic effects that have been used to investigate the association between environmental exposures and cancer. However, few studies have examined the association between environmental exposures during pregnancy and MN in mothers and newborns., Objectives: We examined MN frequency in maternal blood and in cord blood, in relation to maternal air pollution exposure, and the potential interaction with maternal vitamin C intake and maternal smoking., Methods: We used the cytokinesis-block micronucleus assay to assess MN frequency per 1000 bi-nucleated T-lymphocytes from 181 mothers and 183 newborns born in 2007-2008 in Heraklion (Crete, Greece). The ESCAPE land-use regression methods were used to estimate annual mean exposure to outdoor air pollution [particulate matter (PM), black carbon, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)] at maternal home addresses. Food frequency questionnaires were used to estimate maternal dietary vitamin C intake during pregnancy. Smoking habits were self-reported using questionnaires which were checked by measuring maternal urinary cotinine levels., Results: Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with increased MN frequencies in pregnant women [rate ratio [RR (95%CI)] per 5 µg/m(3)=1.53 (1.02, 2.29)]. This increase was considerably higher among women who did not fulfill the recommended vitamin C dietary allowances [RR=9.35 (2.77, 31.61); n=20]. Exposure to PM2.5-10, PM10, NO2 and NOx were also associated with a higher incidence of MN frequencies in smoker women (n=56). No associations were found for newborns., Conclusions: We found an association between air pollution, particularly PM2.5, and MN frequency in mothers but not in newborns. This association was more pronounced among women with a lower dietary intake of vitamin C during pregnancy and among women who smoked during pregnancy. While results are clear in mothers, the association between maternal carcinogenic exposures during pregnancy and biomarkers of early biologic effect in the newborn remains poorly understood., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

An increasing number of epidemiological studies suggest that adverse health effects of air pollution may be related to particulate matter (PM) composition, particularly trace metals. However, we lack comprehensive data on the spatial distribution of these elements. We measured PM2.5 and PM10 in twenty study areas across Europe in three seasonal two-week periods over a year using Harvard impactors and standardized protocols. In each area, we selected street (ST), urban (UB) and regional background (RB) sites (totaling 20) to characterize local spatial variability. Elemental composition was determined by energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis of all PM2.5 and PM10 filters. We selected a priori eight (Cu, Fe, K, Ni, S, Si, V, Zn) well-detected elements of health interest, which also roughly represented different sources including traffic, industry, ports, and wood burning. PM elemental composition varied greatly across Europe, indicating different regional influences. Average street to urban background ratios ranged from 0.90 (V) to 1.60 (Cu) for PM2.5 and from 0.93 (V) to 2.28 (Cu) for PM10. Our selected PM elements were variably correlated with the main pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5 absorbance, NO2 and NOx) across Europe: in general, Cu and Fe in all size fractions were highly correlated (Pearson correlations above 0.75); Si and Zn in the coarse fractions were modestly correlated (between 0.5 and 0.75); and the remaining elements in the various size fractions had lower correlations (around 0.5 or below). This variability in correlation demonstrated the distinctly different spatial distributions of most of the elements. Variability of PM10&#95;Cu and Fe was mostly due to within-study area differences (67% and 64% of overall variance, respectively) versus between-study area and exceeded that of most other traffic-related pollutants, including NO2 and soot, signaling the importance of non-tailpipe (e.g., brake wear) emissions in PM., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Childhood blood pressure is an important predictor of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in adulthood. Evidence for an association between ambient particulate matter (PM) exposure and blood pressure is increasing, but little is known about the relevance of different PM constituents., Objectives: We investigated the association between particulate matter composition and blood pressure at age 12 years., Methods: Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc in particles with diameters of less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) and 10μm (PM10) were estimated by land-use regression modeling for the home addresses of the participants of the prospective PIAMA birth cohort study. Associations between element concentrations and blood pressure measurements performed at age 12 years were investigated by linear regression with and without adjustment for confounders., Results: After adjustment for potential confounders we found statistically significant positive associations of diastolic blood pressure with iron, silicon, and potassium in PM10 in children who lived at the same address since birth [mean difference (95% confidence interval) 0.67 (0.02;1.31) mmHg, 0.85 (0.18;1.52) mmHg, and 0.75 (0.09;1.41) mmHg, respectively, per interquartile range increase in exposure]. Also, we found marginally significant (p<0.1) positive associations between iron and silicon in PM2.5 and diastolic blood pressure. Part of the observed effects was found to be attributable to NO2, a marker of exhaust traffic emissions., Conclusions: Exposure to particulate matter constituents, in particular iron may increase blood pressure in children. The possible association with iron may indicate the health relevance of non-exhaust emissions of traffic., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Epidemiological studies have associated long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter with increased mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Systemic inflammation is a plausible biological mechanism behind this association. However, it is unclear how the chemical composition of PM affects inflammatory responses., Objectives: To investigate the association between long-term exposure to elemental components of PM and the inflammatory blood markers high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and fibrinogen as part of the European ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM multi-center projects., Methods: In total, 21,558 hsCRP measurements and 17,428 fibrinogen measurements from cross-sections of five and four cohort studies were available, respectively. Residential long-term concentrations of particulate matter <10μm (PM10) and <2.5μm (PM2.5) in diameter and selected elemental components (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, zinc) were estimated based on land-use regression models. Associations between components and inflammatory markers were estimated using linear regression models for each cohort separately. Cohort-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. As a sensitivity analysis the models were additionally adjusted for PM mass., Results: A 5ng/m(3) increase in PM2.5 copper and a 500ng/m(3) increase in PM10 iron were associated with a 6.3% [0.7; 12.3%] and 3.6% [0.3; 7.1%] increase in hsCRP, respectively. These associations between components and fibrinogen were slightly weaker. A 10ng/m(3) increase in PM2.5 zinc was associated with a 1.2% [0.1; 2.4%] increase in fibrinogen; confidence intervals widened when additionally adjusting for PM2.5., Conclusions: Long-term exposure to transition metals within ambient particulate matter, originating from traffic and industry, may be related to chronic systemic inflammation providing a link to long-term health effects of particulate matter., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: There is limited knowledge about the extent to which estimates of air pollution effects on health are affected by the choice for a specific exposure model., Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the correlation between long-term air pollution exposure estimates using two commonly used exposure modeling techniques [dispersion and land use regression (LUR) models] and, in addition, to compare the estimates of the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and lung function in children using these exposure modeling techniques., Methods: We used data of 1,058 participants of a Dutch birth cohort study with measured forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements at 8 years of age. For each child, annual average outdoor air pollution exposure [nitrogen dioxide (NO2), mass concentration of particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 and ≤ 10 μm (PM2.5, PM10), and PM2.5 soot] was estimated for the current addresses of the participants by a dispersion and a LUR model. Associations between exposures to air pollution and lung function parameters were estimated using linear regression analysis with confounder adjustment., Results: Correlations between LUR- and dispersion-modeled pollution concentrations were high for NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 soot (R = 0.86-0.90) but low for PM10 (R = 0.57). Associations with lung function were similar for air pollutant exposures estimated using LUR and dispersion modeling, except for associations of PM2.5 with FEV1 and FVC, which were stronger but less precise for exposures based on LUR compared with dispersion model., Conclusions: Predictions from LUR and dispersion models correlated very well for PM2.5, NO2, and PM2.5 soot but not for PM10. Health effect estimates did not depend on the type of model used to estimate exposure in a population of Dutch children.

Background: Long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) has been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality but little is known about the role of the chemical composition of PM. This study examined the association of residential long-term exposure to PM components with incident coronary events., Methods: Eleven cohorts from Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and Italy participated in this analysis. 5,157 incident coronary events were identified within 100,166 persons followed on average for 11.5 years. Long-term residential concentrations of PM < 10 μm (PM10), PM < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), and a priori selected constituents (copper, iron, nickel, potassium, silicon, sulfur, vanadium, and zinc) were estimated with land-use regression models. We used Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for a common set of confounders to estimate cohort-specific component effects with and without including PM mass, and random effects meta-analyses to pool cohort-specific results., Results: A 100 ng/m³ increase in PM10 K and a 50 ng/m³ increase in PM2.5 K were associated with a 6% (hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.06 [1.01, 1.12]) and 18% (1.18 [1.06, 1.32]) increase in coronary events. Estimates for PM10 Si and PM2.5 Fe were also elevated. All other PM constituents indicated a positive association with coronary events. When additionally adjusting for PM mass, the estimates decreased except for K., Conclusions: This multicenter study of 11 European cohorts pointed to an association between long-term exposure to PM constituents and coronary events, especially for indicators of road dust.

Background: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with mortality in urban cohort studies. Few studies have investigated this association in large-scale population registries, including non-urban populations., Objectives: The aim of the study was to evaluate the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality in the Netherlands based on existing national databases., Methods: We used existing Dutch national databases on mortality, individual characteristics, residence history, neighborhood characteristics, and national air pollution maps based on land use regression (LUR) techniques for particulates with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Using these databases, we established a cohort of 7.1 million individuals ≥ 30 years of age. We followed the cohort for 7 years (2004-2011). We applied Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential individual and area-specific confounders., Results: After adjustment for individual and area-specific confounders, for each 10-μg/m3 increase, PM10 and NO2 were associated with nonaccidental mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.09 and HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.03, respectively], respiratory mortality (HR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.17 and HR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03, respectively), and lung cancer mortality (HR = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.21, 1.30 and HR = 1.10 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11, respectively). Furthermore, PM10 was associated with circulatory disease mortality (HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.08), but NO2 was not (HR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.01). PM10 associations were robust to adjustment for NO2; NO2 associations remained for nonaccidental mortality and lung cancer mortality after adjustment for PM10., Conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM10 and NO2 was associated with nonaccidental and cause-specific mortality in the Dutch population of ≥ 30 years of age.

Background: Studies have shown associations between mortality and long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution. Few cohort studies have estimated the effects of the elemental composition of particulate matter on mortality., Objectives: Our aim was to study the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to elemental components of particulate matter., Methods: Mortality and confounder data from 19 European cohort studies were used. Residential exposure to eight a priori-selected components of particulate matter (PM) was characterized following a strictly standardized protocol. Annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM size fractions ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ≤ 10 μm (PM10) were estimated using land-use regression models. Cohort-specific statistical analyses of the associations between mortality and air pollution were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models using a common protocol followed by meta-analysis., Results: The total study population consisted of 291,816 participants, of whom 25,466 died from a natural cause during follow-up (average time of follow-up, 14.3 years). Hazard ratios were positive for almost all elements and statistically significant for PM2.5 sulfur (1.14; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.23 per 200 ng/m3). In a two-pollutant model, the association with PM2.5 sulfur was robust to adjustment for PM2.5 mass, whereas the association with PM2.5 mass was reduced., Conclusions: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 sulfur was associated with natural-cause mortality. This association was robust to adjustment for other pollutants and PM2.5.

Background: Ambient particulate matter (PM) exposure is associated with children's respiratory health. Little is known about the importance of different PM constituents. We investigated the effects of PM constituents on asthma, allergy, and lung function until the age of 11-12 years., Methods: For 3,702 participants of a prospective birth cohort study, questionnaire-reported asthma and hay fever and measurements of allergic sensitization and lung function were linked with annual average concentrations of copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc in particles with diameters of less than 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10) at birth addresses and current addresses from land-use regression models. Exposure-health relations were analyzed by multiple (repeated measures) logistic and linear regressions., Results: Asthma incidence and prevalence of asthma symptoms and rhinitis were positively associated with zinc in PM10 at the birth address (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] per interquartile range increase in exposure 1.13 [1.02, 1.25], 1.08 [1.00, 1.17], and 1.16 [1.04, 1.30], respectively). Moreover, asthma symptoms were positively associated with copper in PM10 at the current address (1.06 [1.00, 1.12]). Allergic sensitization was positively associated with copper and iron in PM10 at the birth address (relative risk [95% confidence interval] 1.07 [1.01, 1.14] and 1.10 [1.03, 1.18]) and current address. Forced expiratory volume in 1 second was negatively associated with copper and iron in PM2.5 (change [95% confidence interval] -2.1% [-1.1, -0.1%] and -1.0% [-2.0, -0.0%]) and FEF75-50 with copper in PM10 at the current address (-2.3% [-4.3, -0.3%])., Conclusion: PM constituents, in particular iron, copper, and zinc, reflecting poorly regulated non-tailpipe road traffic emissions, may increase the risk of asthma and allergy in schoolchildren.

Aims: Elevation of a child's blood pressure may cause possible health risks in later life. There is evidence for adverse effects of exposure to air pollution and noise on blood pressure in adults. Little is known about these associations in children. We investigated the associations of air pollution and noise exposure with blood pressure in 12-year-olds., Methods: Blood pressure was measured at age 12 years in 1432 participants of the PIAMA birth cohort study. Annual average exposure to traffic-related air pollution [NO2, mass concentrations of particulate matter with diameters of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and less than 10 µm (PM10), and PM2.5 absorbance] at the participants' home and school addresses at the time of blood pressure measurements was estimated by land-use regression models. Air pollution exposure on the days preceding blood pressure measurements was estimated from routine air monitoring data. Long-term noise exposure was assessed by linking addresses to modelled equivalent road traffic noise levels. Associations of exposures with blood pressure were analysed by linear regression. Effects are presented for an interquartile range increase in exposure., Results: Long-term exposure to NO2 and PM2.5 absorbance were associated with increased diastolic blood pressure, in children who lived at the same address since birth [adjusted mean difference (95% confidence interval) [mmHg] 0.83 (0.06 to 1.61) and 0.75 (-0.08 to 1.58), respectively], but not with systolic blood pressure. We found no association of blood pressure with short-term air pollution or noise exposure., Conclusions: Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may increase diastolic blood pressure in children., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.)

Evidence for a role of long-term particulate matter exposure on acute respiratory infections is growing. However, which components of particulate matter may be causative remains largely unknown. We assessed associations between eight particulate matter elements and early-life pneumonia in seven birth cohort studies (N total=15,980): BAMSE (Sweden), GASPII (Italy), GINIplus and LISAplus (Germany), INMA (Spain), MAAS (United Kingdom) and PIAMA (The Netherlands). Annual average exposure to copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc, each respectively derived from particles with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and 2.5 μm (PM2.5), were estimated using standardized land use regression models and assigned to birth addresses. Cohort-specific associations between these exposures and parental reports of physician-diagnosed pneumonia between birth and two years were assessed using logistic regression models adjusted for host and environmental covariates and total PM10 or PM2.5 mass. Combined estimates were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. There was substantial within and between-cohort variability in element concentrations. In the adjusted meta-analysis, pneumonia was weakly associated with zinc derived from PM10 (OR: 1.47 (95% CI: 0.99, 2.18) per 20 ng/m(3) increase). No other associations with the other elements were consistently observed. The independent effect of particulate matter mass remained after adjustment for element concentrations. In conclusion, associations between particulate matter mass exposure and pneumonia were not explained by the elements we investigated. Zinc from PM10 was the only element which appeared independently associated with a higher risk of early-life pneumonia. As zinc is primarily attributable to non-tailpipe traffic emissions, these results may suggest a potential adverse effect of non-tailpipe emissions on health., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier GmbH.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Long-term exposure to air pollution has been hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country specific., Objectives: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations., Methods: We analyzed 15 population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). We modeled residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides with land use regression using a uniform protocol. We assessed traffic exposure with traffic indicator variables. We analyzed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and nonmedicated with BP-lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic BP, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis., Results: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in nonmedicated participants [0.35 mmHg (95% CI: 0.02, 0.68) and 0.22 mmHg (95% CI: 0.04, 0.40) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively]. The estimated odds ratio (OR) for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.11) per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modeled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated., Conclusions: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts, we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in nonmedicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modeled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.

Background: Negative effects of long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) on lung function have been shown repeatedly. Spatial differences in the composition and toxicity of PM may explain differences in observed effect sizes between studies., Methods: We conducted a multicenter study in 5 European birth cohorts-BAMSE (Sweden), GINIplus and LISAplus (Germany), MAAS (United Kingdom), and PIAMA (The Netherlands)-for which lung function measurements were available for study subjects at the age of 6 or 8 years. Individual annual average residential exposure to copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium, and zinc within PM smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and smaller than 10 μm (PM10) was estimated using land-use regression models. Associations between air pollution and lung function were analyzed by linear regression within cohorts, adjusting for potential confounders, and then combined by random effects meta-analysis., Results: We observed small reductions in forced expiratory volume in the first second, forced vital capacity, and peak expiratory flow related to exposure to most elemental pollutants, with the most substantial negative associations found for nickel and sulfur. PM10 nickel and PM10 sulfur were associated with decreases in forced expiratory volume in the first second of 1.6% (95% confidence interval = 0.4% to 2.7%) and 2.3% (-0.1% to 4.6%) per increase in exposure of 2 and 200 ng/m, respectively. Associations remained after adjusting for PM mass. However, associations with these elements were not evident in all cohorts, and heterogeneity of associations with exposure to various components was larger than for exposure to PM mass., Conclusions: Although we detected small adverse effects on lung function associated with annual average levels of some of the evaluated elements (particularly nickel and sulfur), lower lung function was more consistently associated with increased PM mass.

Background: Land use regression (LUR) models have been developed mostly to explain intraurban variations in air pollution based on often small local monitoring campaigns. Transferability of LUR models from city to city has been investigated, but little is known about the performance of models based on large numbers of monitoring sites covering a large area., Objectives: We aimed to develop European and regional LUR models and to examine their transferability to areas not used for model development., Methods: We evaluated LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM; PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance) by combining standardized measurement data from 17 (PM) and 23 (NO2) ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) study areas across 14 European countries for PM and NO2. Models were evaluated with cross-validation (CV) and hold-out validation (HV). We investigated the transferability of the models by successively excluding each study area from model building., Results: The European model explained 56% of the concentration variability across all sites for NO2, 86% for PM2.5, and 70% for PM2.5 absorbance. The HV R2s were only slightly lower than the model R2 (NO2, 54%; PM2.5, 80%; PM2.5 absorbance, 70%). The European NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 absorbance models explained a median of 59%, 48%, and 70% of within-area variability in individual areas. The transferred models predicted a modest-to-large fraction of variability in areas that were excluded from model building (median R2: NO2, 59%; PM2.5, 42%; PM2.5 absorbance, 67%)., Conclusions: Using a large data set from 23 European study areas, we were able to develop LUR models for NO2 and PM metrics that predicted measurements made at independent sites and areas reasonably well. This finding is useful for assessing exposure in health studies conducted in areas where no measurements were conducted.

Epidemiological studies often use nitrogen dioxide (NO2) or proximity to roads to characterize exposure to more health-relevant pollutants (e.g., fine particles or black carbon aerosol) in vehicle exhaust. Due to the introduction of diesel-soot filters, particle-to-NO2 ratios may have decreased, but little information is available about these ratios over time. Our study aim was to evaluate the change in particle-to-NO2 ratios between 1999 and 2009. We compared data collected during measurement campaigns in 1999 and 2009 from Munich, the Netherlands, and Stockholm. Traffic-impacted and urban and regional background sites were studied during each campaign. The same pollutants were measured in each campaign (mass concentration of particles ≤ 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5), PM2.5 absorbance (a marker for black carbon), and NO2) using the same methods except for NO2: Palmes tubes were used in 1999 and Ogawa badges in 2009. Both NO2 methods were validated against side-by-side chemiluminescence measurements. The levels of PM2.5 absorbance and PM2.5 were significantly lower (p<0.05) in 2009 at traffic and urban background sites in Stockholm, but only slightly lower in Munich and the Netherlands. In contrast, NO2 levels were not significantly different in the three areas in 2009 compared to 1999. Statistically-significant decreases between 1999 and 2009 pollutant ratios in the Netherlands (PM2.5 absorbance/NO2 and PM2.5/NO2) and in Stockholm (PM2.5 absorbance/NO2 and PM2.5 absorbance/PM2.5) were observed. Smaller decreases in these ratios were observed in Munich. The contrast between traffic and urban background locations was larger in 2009 than 1999 for NO2, whereas it was smaller for PM2.5 absorbance and PM2.5. The lower PM2.5 absorbance/NO2 and PM2.5/NO2 ratios in 2009 is likely explained by the introduction of oxidative particle filters for diesel vehicles that reduce particles but produce NO2. The changed contrasts may affect estimates of health effects related to NO2 as a marker of proximity to roads., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Associations between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality have been widely recognized. However, health effects of long-term exposure to constituents of PM on total CVD mortality have been explored in a single study only., Aims: The aim of this study was to examine the association of PM composition with cardiovascular mortality., Methods: We used data from 19 European ongoing cohorts within the framework of the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) and TRANSPHORM (Transport related Air Pollution and Health impacts--Integrated Methodologies for Assessing Particulate Matter) projects. Residential annual average exposure to elemental constituents within particle matter smaller than 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10) was estimated using Land Use Regression models. Eight elements representing major sources were selected a priori (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc). Cohort-specific analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models with a standardized protocol. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate combined effect estimates., Results: The total population consisted of 322,291 participants, with 9545 CVD deaths. We found no statistically significant associations between any of the elemental constituents in PM2.5 or PM10 and CVD mortality in the pooled analysis. Most of the hazard ratios (HRs) were close to unity, e.g. for PM10 Fe the combined HR was 0.96 (0.84-1.09). Elevated combined HRs were found for PM2.5 Si (1.17, 95% CI: 0.93-1.47), and S in PM2.5 (1.08, 95% CI: 0.95-1.22) and PM10 (1.09, 95% CI: 0.90-1.32)., Conclusion: In a joint analysis of 19 European cohorts, we found no statistically significant association between long-term exposure to 8 elemental constituents of particles and total cardiovascular mortality., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Rationale: Prospective cohort studies have shown that chronic exposure to particulate matter and traffic-related air pollution is associated with reduced survival. However, the effects on nonmalignant respiratory mortality are less studied, and the data reported are less consistent., Objectives: We have investigated the relationship of long-term exposure to air pollution and nonmalignant respiratory mortality in 16 cohorts with individual level data within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)., Methods: Data from 16 ongoing cohort studies from Europe were used. The total number of subjects was 307,553. There were 1,559 respiratory deaths during follow-up., Measurements and Main Results: Air pollution exposure was estimated by land use regression models at the baseline residential addresses of study participants and traffic-proximity variables were derived from geographical databases following a standardized procedure within the ESCAPE study. Cohort-specific hazard ratios obtained by Cox proportional hazard models from standardized individual cohort analyses were combined using metaanalyses. We found no significant associations between air pollution exposure and nonmalignant respiratory mortality. Most hazard ratios were slightly below unity, with the exception of the traffic-proximity indicators., Conclusions: In this study of 16 cohorts, there was no association between air pollution exposure and nonmalignant respiratory mortality.

Background: Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants., Methods: We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367,251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM10), and between 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx), with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis., Findings: The total study population consisted of 367,251 participants who contributed 5,118,039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29,076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 μg/m(3) was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I(2) p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m(3) (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 μg/m(3) (1.07, 1.01-1.13)., Interpretation: Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value., Funding: European Community's Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2011)., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations., Methods: This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses., Findings: The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 μg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 μg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 μg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day)., Interpretation: Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe., Funding: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used to describe and model spatial variability of annual mean concentrations of traffic related pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). No models have yet been published of elemental composition. As part of the ESCAPE project, we measured the elemental composition in both the PM10 and PM2.5 fraction sizes at 20 sites in each of 20 study areas across Europe. LUR models for eight a priori selected elements (copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)) were developed. Good models were developed for Cu, Fe, and Zn in both fractions (PM10 and PM2.5) explaining on average between 67 and 79% of the concentration variance (R(2)) with a large variability between areas. Traffic variables were the dominant predictors, reflecting nontailpipe emissions. Models for V and S in the PM10 and PM2.5 fractions and Si, Ni, and K in the PM10 fraction performed moderately with R(2) ranging from 50 to 61%. Si, NI, and K models for PM2.5 performed poorest with R(2) under 50%. The LUR models are used to estimate exposures to elemental composition in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

Current day concentrations of ambient air pollution have been associated with a range of adverse health effects, particularly mortality and morbidity due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. In this review, we summarize the evidence from epidemiological studies on long-term exposure to fine and coarse particles, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and elemental carbon on mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease. We also summarize the findings on potentially susceptible subgroups across studies. We identified studies through a search in the databases Medline and Scopus and previous reviews until January 2013 and performed a meta-analysis if more than five studies were available for the same exposure metric.

Land use regression models (LUR) frequently use leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) to assess model fit, but recent studies suggested that this may overestimate predictive ability in independent data sets. Our aim was to evaluate LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM) components exploiting the high correlation between concentrations of PM metrics and NO2. LUR models have been developed for NO2, PM2.5 absorbance, and copper (Cu) in PM10 based on 20 sites in each of the 20 study areas of the ESCAPE project. Models were evaluated with LOOCV and "hold-out evaluation (HEV)" using the correlation of predicted NO2 or PM concentrations with measured NO2 concentrations at the 20 additional NO2 sites in each area. For NO2, PM2.5 absorbance and PM10 Cu, the median LOOCV R(2)s were 0.83, 0.81, and 0.76 whereas the median HEV R(2) were 0.52, 0.44, and 0.40. There was a positive association between the LOOCV R(2) and HEV R(2) for PM2.5 absorbance and PM10 Cu. Our results confirm that the predictive ability of LUR models based on relatively small training sets is overestimated by the LOOCV R(2)s. Nevertheless, in most areas LUR models still explained a substantial fraction of the variation of concentrations measured at independent sites.

Land Use Regression (LUR) models have been used increasingly for modeling small-scale spatial variation in air pollution concentrations and estimating individual exposure for participants of cohort studies. Within the ESCAPE project, concentrations of PM(2.5), PM(2.5) absorbance, PM(10), and PM(coarse) were measured in 20 European study areas at 20 sites per area. GIS-derived predictor variables (e.g., traffic intensity, population, and land-use) were evaluated to model spatial variation of annual average concentrations for each study area. The median model explained variance (R(2)) was 71% for PM(2.5) (range across study areas 35-94%). Model R(2) was higher for PM(2.5) absorbance (median 89%, range 56-97%) and lower for PM(coarse) (median 68%, range 32- 81%). Models included between two and five predictor variables, with various traffic indicators as the most common predictors. Lower R(2) was related to small concentration variability or limited availability of predictor variables, especially traffic intensity. Cross validation R(2) results were on average 8-11% lower than model R(2). Careful selection of monitoring sites, examination of influential observations and skewed variable distributions were essential for developing stable LUR models. The final LUR models are used to estimate air pollution concentrations at the home addresses of participants in the health studies involved in ESCAPE.

There are currently no epidemiological studies on health effects of long-term exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP), largely because data on spatial exposure contrasts for UFP is lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a land use regression (LUR) model for UFP in the city of Amsterdam. Total particle number concentrations (PNC), PM10, PM2.5, and its soot content were measured directly outside 50 homes spread over the city of Amsterdam. Each home was measured during one week. Continuous measurements at a central urban background site were used to adjust the average concentration for temporal variation. Predictor variables (traffic, address density, land use) were obtained using geographic information systems. A model including the product of traffic intensity and the inverse distance to the nearest road squared, address density, and location near the port explained 67% of the variability in measured PNC. LUR models for PM2.5, soot, and coarse particles (PM10, PM2.5) explained 57%, 76%, and 37% of the variability in measured concentrations. Predictions from the PNC model correlated highly with predictions from LUR models for PM2.5, soot, and coarse particles. A LUR model for PNC has been developed, with similar validity as previous models for more commonly measured pollutants.

Evidence is increasing that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with deaths from cardiopulmonary diseases. In a 2002 pilot study, we reported clear indications that traffic-related air pollution, especially at the local scale, was related to cardiopulmonary mortality in a randomly selected subcohort of 5000 older adults participating in the ongoing Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS) on diet and cancer. In the current study, referred to as NLCS-AIR, our objective was to obtain more precise estimates of the effects of traffic-related air pollution by analyzing associations with cause-specific mortality, as well as lung cancer incidence, in the full cohort of approximately 120,000 subjects. Cohort members were 55 to 69 years of age at enrollment in 1986. Follow-up was from 1987 through 1996 for mortality (17,674 deaths) and from late 1986 through 1997 for lung cancer incidence (2234 cases). Information about potential confounding variables and effect modifiers was available from the questionnaire that subjects completed at enrollment and from publicly available data (including neighborhood-scale information such as income distributions). The NLCS was designed for a case-cohort approach, which makes use of all the cases in the full cohort, while data for the random subcohort are used to estimate person-time experience in the study. Full information on confounders was available for the subjects in the random subcohort and for the emerging cases of mortality and lung cancer incidence during the follow-up period, and in NLCS-AIR we used the case-cohort approach to examine the relation between exposure to air pollution and cause-specific mortality and lung cancer. We also specified a standard Cox proportional hazards model within the full cohort, for which information on potential confounding variables was much more limited. Exposure to air pollution was estimated for the subjects' home addresses at baseline in 1986. Concentrations were estimated for black smoke (a simple marker for soot) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as indicators of traffic-related air pollution, as well as nitric oxide (NO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm (PM2.5), as estimated from measurements of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10). Overall long-term exposure concentrations were considered to be a function of air pollution contributions at regional, urban, and local scales. We used interpolation from data obtained routinely at regional stations of the National Air Quality Monitoring Network (NAQMN) to estimate the regional component of exposure at the home address. Average pollutant concentrations were estimated from NAQMN measurements for the period 1976 through 1996. Land-use regression methods were used to estimate the urban exposure component. For the local exposure component, geographic information systems (GISs) were used to generate indicators of traffic exposure that included traffic intensity on and distance to nearby roads. A major effort was made to collect traffic intensity data from individual municipalities. The exposure variables were refined considerably from those used in the pilot study, but we also analyzed the data for the full cohort in the current study using the exposure indicators of the pilot study. We analyzed the data in models with the estimated overall pollutant concentration as a single variable and with the background concentration (the sum of regional and urban components) and the local exposure estimate from traffic indicators as separate variables. In the full-cohort analyses adjusted for the limited set of confounders, estimated overall exposure concentrations of black smoke, NO2, NO, and PM2.5 were associated with mortality. For a 10-microg/m3 increase in the black smoke concentration, the relative risk (RR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 1.05 (1.00-1.11) for natural-cause (nonaccidental) mortality, 1.04 (0.95-1.13) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.22 (0.99-1.50) for respiratory mortality, 1.03 (0.88-1.20) for lung cancer mortality, and 1.04 (0.97-1.12) for noncardiopulmonary, non-lung cancer mortality. Results were similar for NO2, NO, and PM2.5. For a 10-microg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration, the RR for natural-cause mortality was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.97-1.16), the same as in the results of the American Cancer Society Study reported by Pope and colleagues in 2002. The highest relative risks were found for respiratory mortality, though confidence intervals were wider for this less-frequent cause of death. No associations with mortality were found for SO2. Some of the associations between the traffic indicator variables used to assess traffic intensity near the home and mortality reached statistical significance in the full cohort. For an increase in traffic intensity of 10,000 motor vehicles in 24 hours (motor vehicles/day) on the road nearest a subject's residence, the RR was 1.03 (95% CI, 1.00-1.08) for natural-cause mortality, 1.05 (0.99-1.12) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.10 (0.95-1.26) for respiratory mortality, 1.07 (0.96-1.19) for lung cancer mortality, and 1.00 (0.94-1.06) for noncardiopulmonary, non-lung cancer mortality. Results were similar for traffic intensity in a 100-m buffer around the subject's residence and living near a major road (a road with more than 10,000 motor vehicles/day). Distance in meters to the nearest major road and traffic intensity on the nearest major road were not associated with any of the mortality outcomes. We did not find an association between cardiopulmonary mortality and living near a major road as defined using the methods of the pilot study. In the case-cohort analyses adjusted for all potential confounders, we found no associations between background air pollution and mortality. The associations between traffic intensity and mortality were weaker than in the full cohort, and confidence intervals were wider, consistent with the smaller number of subjects. The lower relative risks of mortality associated with traffic variables in the case-cohort study population could be related to the particular subcohort that was randomly selected from the full cohort, as the risks estimated with the actual subcohort were well below the average estimates obtained for 100 new case-cohort analyses with 100 alternative subcohorts of 5000 subjects each that we randomly selected from the full cohort. Differences in adjusted relative risks between the full-cohort and the case-cohort analyses could be explained by random error introduced by sampling from the full cohort and by a selection effect resulting from the relatively large number of missing data for variables in the extensive confounder model used in the case-cohort analyses. More complete control for confounding probably did not contribute much to the lower relative risks in the case-cohort analyses, especially for the traffic variables, as results were similar when the limited confounder model for the full cohort was used in analyses of the subjects in the case-cohort study population. In additional analyses using black smoke concentrations as the exposure variables, we found that the association between overall black smoke and cardiopulmonary mortality was somewhat stronger for case-cohort subjects who did not change residence during follow-up, and in the full cohort, there was a tendency for relative risks to be higher for subjects living in the three major cities included in the study. Adjustment for estimated exposure to traffic noise did not affect the associations of background black smoke and traffic intensity with cardiovascular mortality. There was some indication of an association between traffic noise and cardiovascular mortality only for the 1.6% of the subjects in the full cohort who were exposed to traffic noise in the highest category of > 65 A-weighted decibels (dB(A); decibels with the sound pressure scale adjusted to conform with the frequency response of the human ear). Examination of sex, smoking status, educational level, and vegetable and fruit intake as possible effect modifiers showed that for overall black smoke concentrations, associations with mortality tended to be stronger in case-cohort subjects with lower levels of education and those with low fruit intake, but differences between strata were not statistically significant. For lung cancer incidence, we found essentially no relation to exposure to NO2, black smoke, PM2.5, SO2, or several traffic indicators. Associations of overall air pollution concentrations and traffic indicator variables with lung cancer incidence were, however, found in subjects who had never smoked, with an RR of 1.47 (95% CI, 1.01-2.16) for a 10-microg/m3 increase in overall black smoke concentration. In the current study, the mortality risks associated with both background air pollution and traffic exposure variables were much smaller than the estimate previously reported in the pilot study for risk of cardiopulmonary mortality associated with living near a major road (RR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.09-3.51). The differences are most likely due to the extension of the follow-up period in the current study and to random error in the pilot study related to sampling from the full cohort. Though relative risks were generally small in the current study, long-term average concentrations of black smoke, NO2, and PM2.5 were related to mortality, and associations of black smoke and NO2 exposure with natural-cause and respiratory mortality were statistically significant. Traffic intensity near the home was also related to natural-cause mortality. The highest relative risks associated with background air pollution and traffic variables were for respiratory mortality, though the number of deaths was smaller than for the other mortality categories. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)