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Unconventional oil and gas formations are abundant, have become an increasingly important part of the global energy supply, and are attracting increasing attention from the industry. Predicting key reservoir properties plays a significant role in both geological science and subsurface engineering workflows. With the advent of horizontal well drilling and multiple-stage hydraulic fracturing, the Montney Shale formation is one of the most promising and productive shale plays in Canada. However, very few academic papers discuss its in situ stress, reservoir pressure, and permeability, which are essential for the development of the Montney Shale. The objective of this study is to analyze the geo-stress, the pore pressure, and several key reservoir properties by using diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) data from the Montney Shale. One horizontal well from the Wapiti field has been analyzed with a set of DFIT data, and its results show that the general pressure and Gdp/dG responses from Well-A indicate a signature of height recession/transverse storage. In the study, the Tangent Line method, the Compliance method, and the Variable Compliance method have been applied to estimate the key reservoir properties. As a result, the Well-A DFIT analysis estimates that the closure pressure is ranging from 34.367 to 39.344 MPa, contributing to the stress gradient from 14.09 to 16.13 KPa/m for the formation. The pore pressure is ranging from 20.82 to 24.58 MPa, contributing to the pore pressure gradient from 8.54 to 10.07 KPa/m for the formation. The porosity is ranging from 3% to 6%. These reservoir properties are contoured cross the Montney Shale formation. Using the DFIT's numerical simulation and history matching, the reservoir permeability is 0.024 md, fracture length is 13.44 m, and fracture geometries are analyzed by different models. Moreover, the physics behind the DFIT are analyzed and discussed in detail. For the first time, three different analysis methods have been applied to estimate a series of key reservoir properties for the case wells in the Montney Shale formation. This approach can not only reduce the potential prediction error caused by a single method application but also increase the persuasiveness of the assessment and save time, ensuring the efficient implementation of engineering operations. Given the significance of quantifying in situ stress and reservoir pore pressure in unconventional hydrocarbon exploration and development, this study could help the operator to quickly understand the stress regimes, the fracture geometry, and the formation properties of the Montney Shale formation in the Wapiti field. Furthermore, the interpreted results demonstrated in this paper are adding substantial business value to the asset, especially in terms of improving the hydraulic fracturing design and, thus, accelerating the cashflow from production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geotechnical Journal is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper deals with randomization methods for valuing American options written on dividend-paying assets, which are based on the idea of treating the maturity date as a random variable. In the randomization method introduced by Carr in 1998, he used the Erlangian distributed random variable to develop a recursive algorithm starting from the so-called Canadian option with an exponentially distributed random maturity. The purposes of this paper are (i) to provide much simpler pricing formulas for the Canadian option; (ii) to interpret the Gaver-Stehfest method developed for inverting Laplace transforms as an alternative randomization method in the context of valuing American options; and (iii) to evaluate the performance of the Gaver-Stehfest method in details with theoretical and numerical views. Numerical experiments indicate that the Gaver-Stehfest method works well to generate accurate approximations for the early exercise boundary as well as the option value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a two-dimensional numerical multimedia modeling method (2DNEMM) which is developed to evaluate the fate and behavior of pollutant in a contaminated site with complex multimedia conditions. Using alternating direction implicit method, the developed 2DNEMM including source, unsaturated and groundwater modules can estimate spatially and temporally resolved contaminant concentrations in all media. The present model is applied to a landfill site in Canada and validated against monitoring data for chromium (Cr) concentrations. Furthermore, Morris screening method is used to examine the sensitivities of input parameters. Vertical hydraulic conductivity and longitudinal hydraulic conductivity are identified as the most sensitive parameters in source and groundwater zones, respectively. This study also investigates the effect of spatial heterogeneity through a spatial uncertainty analysis of model parameters. Based on the case study, the possible distribution and probabilistic risks of Cr contaminant in the landfill area are further assessed. The 2DNEMM approach can not only address the fate and transport of contaminant in complicated multimedia environments but also serve as a risk assessment tool to provide better spatial and temporal exposure risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the objectives of data assimilation is to produce initial conditions that will improve the quality of forecasts. Studies on singular vectors and sensitivity studies have shown that small changes to the initial conditions can sometimes lead to exponential error growth. This has motivated research to include flow-dependent structures within the assimilation that would have the characteristics to correctly predict the growth or decay of meteorological systems. This relates to the characterization of precursors to atmospheric instability. In this paper, the observability of such structures by observations is discussed. Several studies have shown that deploying observations over regions where changes in the initial conditions may impact the forecast the most do not lead to the expected benefit. In this paper, it is shown that given the small magnitude of the signal to be detected, it is important to take into account the accuracy of the observations. If the signal-to-noise ratio is too low, observations cannot detect and characterize precursors to forecast error growth. From that perspective, the assimilation only has the possibility to extract information about evolved structures of error growth. Experiments with a simple one-dimensional variational data assimilation (1D-Var) system are presented and, then, an adapted three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system with different sensitivity structure functions is used. The results have been obtained by adapting the variational assimilation system of Environment Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Qualitative spatial variables are important in many fields of research. However, unlike the decades-worth of research devoted to the spatial association of quantitative variables, the exploratory analysis of spatial qualitative variables is relatively less developed. The objective of the present paper is to propose a new test ( Q) for spatial independence. This is a simple, consistent, and powerful statistic for qualitative spatial independence that we develop using concepts from symbolic dynamics and symbolic entropy. The Q test can be used to detect, given a spatial distribution of events, patterns of spatial association of qualitative variables in a wide variety of settings. In order to enable hypothesis testing, we give a standard asymptotic distribution of an affine transformation of the symbolic entropy under the null hypothesis of independence in the spatial qualitative process. We include numerical experiments to demonstrate the finite sample behaviour of the test, and show its application by means of an empirical example that explores the spatial association of fast food establishments in the Greater Toronto Area in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Design storms (DS) that are determined from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships are required in many water resources engineering applications. Short duration DS are of particular importance in municipal applications. In this paper, linear trends were estimated for different combinations of durations and frequencies (return periods) of annual short-duration extreme rainfall. Numerical analysis was performed for 15 meteorological stations from the province of Ontario, Canada. The estimated magnitude (rate mm/h) and direction of trend (increasing, decreasing, or no trend) were estimated and then used to quantify the effect of trend on the frequency of design storms. Significant trends were detected for all durations. It was determined that due to the existence of trends (which might be attributed to climate change), the design storms of a given duration might occur more frequently in the future by approximately as much as 36 years depending on the duration and return period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information on biomass distribution is needed to estimate GHG emissions and removals from land use changes in Canada's north for UNFCCC reporting. This paper reports aboveground biomass measurements along the Dempster Highway transect in 2004, and around Yellowknife and the Lupin Gold Mine in 2005. The measured aboveground biomass ranges are 10-100 t ha-1 for woodlands, 1-100 t ha-1 for shrub sites, and 0.5-10 t ha-1 for grass/herbs sites. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of measurements is 21%, and the median absolute percentage error (MedAPE) is 14%. The combination of JERS backscatter and Landsat TM4/TM5 gives the best biomass equation for the Dempster Highway transect, with r 2 = 0.72 when using a one-step approach (i.e. using all points) and 0.78 when using a two-step approach (i.e. stratifying data into three classes: grass, shrub, and woodlands). The two-step approach reduces the MedAPE from 53% to 33%. The validation against Yellowknife & Lupin data indicates that the equations have good transferability. The improvement of two-step approach over the one-step approach, however, is not significant for the validation dataset, suggesting that the one-step approach is as good as the two-step approach when applied over areas outside where the equations are developed. The relationships and error analysis of this study, as well as the final estimate of GHG emission/removal over Canada's north have been incorporated into Canada's 2006 UNFCCC report. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Major depression makes an important contribution to disease burden in Canada. In principle, the burden of major depression can be reduced by the provision of treatment within the health care system. In a previous data analysis, the National Population Health Survey (NPHS) reported an increase in antidepressant (AD) use between 1994 and 1998. In this paper, the analysis is extended to 2000, and additional aspects of health care utilization are described.Methods: The NPHS provides a unique source of longitudinal data concerning major depression and its treatment in Canada. In this survey, probable cases of major depression were identified using a brief predictive instrument; health care utilization was evaluated using additional survey items; and the latest data release from Statistics Canada (that is, 2000) was used to make weighted estimates of the frequency of health care utilization in relation to major depression status.Results: The use of ADs has continued to escalate. These increases have been largest in men and in persons aged under 35 years. There has been an increase in polypharmacy: in 2000, almost 9% of persons taking an AD reported taking more than 1 AD medication-a tripling since 1994. The frequency of consultations with alternative practitioners has also grown. Although the overall proportion of persons with major depression who report consulting with health professionals about their mental health has not increased, the number of persons with major depressive disorder reporting 6 or more visits to nurses, social workers, and psychologists may have.Conclusion: The provision of AD treatment continues to expand in Canada. This probably represents a changing pattern of practice, because the frequency of professional consultation has not increased. More detailed data are required to evaluate the extent to which treatment needs are being met. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Seismic design parameters are proposed for the Moment-resisting Knee-braced Frame. • The study is carried out within the framework of Canadian standards. • All potential hazard sources expected on the Canadian west coast are considered. • The MKF shall be designed as a moderately ductile system. • Overstrength and ductility factors of 1.6 and 3.0 are proposed for the MKF system. • The proposed seismic design parameters are verified by comprehensive nonlinear analyses. This paper proposes and verifies the seismic design parameters, including overstrength-related force modification factor, ductility-related force modification factor, deflection amplification factor, and design period, for the steel Moment-resisting Knee-braced Frame (MKF) system. The building selected in this study is an office located in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, in which MKFs act as the lateral load-resisting system. 14 prototype frames spanning a wide range of geometrical configurations are designed following the requirements of the 2015 National Building Code (2015 NBC) of Canada. Nonlinear static analyses are carried out on the prototype frames to determine the preliminary ductility and overstrength factors. Six new MKFs (assessment frames) are designed using the proposed overstrength and ductility factors, and their seismic and collapse performances are examined by comprehensive numerical analyses, considering the effects of the potential sources of ground motion expected on the Canadian west coast, namely subduction intraslab, subduction interface and shallow crustal events. The results of this study suggest that the MKF system shall be designed as a moderately ductile system using overstrength and ductility factors of 1.60 and 3.0, respectively, with a height not exceeding 40 m in regions of high seismicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corrugated web plate girders (CWPGs) have grown in popularity in Canada in recent years because of their economic efficiency. Although research on the flexural performance of such members has increased in recent years, there are still additional advancements that can be made in their design, particularly in the calculation of lateral torsional buckling resistance. However, no research has been presented in Canada on this subject, and very minimal research has been published on CWPGs with sinusoidal corrugated webs. The purpose of this study was to examine the lateral torsional buckling strength of CWPGs with sinusoidal corrugated web profiles through experimental analysis of CWPGs that are currently being used in Canada. Nine simply supported specimens were loaded and failed in lateral torsional buckling (LTB). The nine specimens were chosen according to size in order to observe variations in LTB strength based on web thickness, web depth, and variations in identical beams. All beams tested recorded strengths far greater than conventional design strength, confirming the conservative nature of the current design procedure. As web thickness increased, a trend of ultimate capacity increasing was observed. The depth of the webs had no significant effect on LTB strength apart from what was gained by increasing the depth of the flanges. Based on the results, an equivalent web thickness equation is proposed for the purpose of calculating a more precise LTB resistance. A numerical analysis was run on a wide range of beam sizes and compared with the physical testing results. It was determined that the proposed equation effectively captured the physical testing results among more than just the tested beams. However, future work should further examine the reliability of the proposed equation by testing more specimens and/or using the finite-element method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Geotechnical Journal is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper compares the numerous approaches to determining equivalent moment factors used in evaluating the elastic critical moment of laterally unsupported beams for a wide variety of moment distributions. The investigation revealed that the procedure used currently in the Canadian design standard produces unacceptable results for the majority of the common bending moment distributions considered. Large abrupt changes in Cb values with only slight changes in the shape of the moment diagram were observed in 6 out of the 12 moment distribution comparisons. which contributes to the overall poor performance of the procedure. The study also revealed drawbacks inherent in other methods. Overall, the quarter-point moment equations developed for general moment distributions capture the trends of the numerical data reasonably well. However, for example, the evaluations show that the 2005 AISC equation produces non-conservative results in some situations, while the British equation, although generally conservative, produces comparatively less accurate results. Other equations examined capture the trends of the numerical data more consistently by implementing a square root format in the quarter-point moment method. However, they produce results that exceed the numerical data in several cases. implying that they are too aggressive for design purposes. To capture the best features of the various methods investigated, yet improve the overall suitability for general design purposes, a modified quarter-point moment equation using the square root format is proposed. Not only does it simulate the trends of the numerical solutions closely. but it also produces reasonable and conservative equivalent moment factors, even in cases where other methods do not. Like all quarter-point moment methods, the proposed equation does not produce good results in some situations where concentrated moments are applied. Nevertheless, it is believed to be appropriate for the vast majority of typical design cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tunnel Sealing Experiment (TSX) was an international project developed by Canada, Japan, France, and the United States. The TSX consisted of a clay bulkhead and a concrete bulkhead. The two bulkheads were at opposite ends of a 12-m-long sand-filled chamber. The heating phase involved the circulation of heated water through the TSX chamber to raise the temperature of the sealing system. This was done to evaluate the influence of elevated temperature on the performance of the bulkheads. Numerical analyses to simulate the thermohydromechanical evolution of the clay bulkhead and the surrounding rock of the TSX were performed using MOTIF finite-element program and compared with measured data. This paper focuses on a preliminary interpretation of the results from the fully coupled thermohydromechanical modeling of the clay bulkhead and the adjacent rock during heating. Discussion of the issues that will affect the ability to model a field application is provided in the course of comparing simulated and measured results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses a paper on the use of numerical modeling to address hydrologic forest management issues in British Columbia that was presented at Ottawa, Ontario-based Canadian Geophysical Union from May 14-17, 2001. Significance of developing hydrologic model applications for experimental watersheds; Importance of acquiring experience and expertise for successful use of certain hydrologic models.

This paper advances a framework for evaluating mesh sensitivity in numerical models of systems involving strain-weakening materials, and demonstrates its application in the case study of the failure at the Mount Polley TSF in Canada. Numerical studies are combined with analytical arguments and physical evidence to establish that this failure was caused in part by the localisation of strain in a shear band with a thickness 0 < h sb ≤ 12.5 cm, and to rule out the possibility of slippage along a pre-sheared plane in the foundation. The range of model responses is bound by an upper limit representing the least conservative case of "no weakening," and a lower limit representing the most conservative case of strain localisation within an infinitely thin shear band, predicting the highest and the lowest stability levels, respectively. The limit states are discoverable using a new method presented here. The model's convergence is shown to vary at mesh discretisation levels above the minimum established by the upper limit state analysis; higher mesh resolutions yield lower stability levels, approaching asymptotically the floor value established by the lower limit state analysis. A conceptual relationship between a model's discretisation, the shape of the strain-weakening curve and convergence is formulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seafloor mapping can offer important insights for marine management, spatial planning, and research in marine geology, ecology, and oceanography. Here, we present a method for generating regional bathymetry and geomorphometry maps from crowd-sourced depth soundings (Olex AS) for a small fraction of the cost of multibeam data collection over the same area. Empirical Bayesian Kriging was used to generate a continuous bathymetric surface from incomplete and, in some areas, sparse Olex coverage on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves of eastern Canada. The result is a 75m bathymetric grid that provides over 100x finer spatial resolution than previously available for the majority of the 672,900 km2 study area. The interpolated bathymetry was tested for accuracy against independent depth data provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Spearman correlation = 0.99, p<0.001). Quantitative terrain attributes were generated to better understand seascape characteristics at multiple spatial scales, including slope, rugosity, aspect, and bathymetric position index. Landform classification was carried out using the geomorphons algorithm and a novel method for the identification of previously unmapped tributary canyons at the continental shelf edge are also presented to illustrate some of many potential benefits of crowd-sourced regional seafloor mapping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies on unconformity-related uranium deposits in the Athabasca Basin (Canada) suggest that egress flow and ingress flow can develop along single fault systems at different stages of compressional deformation. This research aims to examine whether or not both ingress and egress flow can develop at the same time within an area under a common compressional stress field, as suggested by the reverse displacement of the unconformity surface by the basement faults. The study considers the Phoenix and Gryphon uranium deposits in the Wheeler River area in the southeastern part of the Athabasca Basin. Two-dimensional numerical modeling of fluid flow, coupled with compressional deformation and thermal effects, was carried out to examine the fluid flow pattern. The results show that local variations in the basement geology under a common compressional stress field can result in both egress and ingress flow at the same time. The fault zone at Phoenix underwent a relatively low degree of deformation, as reflected by minor reverse displacement of the unconformity, and egress flow developed, whereas the fault zone at Gryphon experienced a relatively high degree of deformation, as demonstrated by significant reverse displacement of the unconformity, and ingress flow was dominant. The correlation between strain development and location of uranium mineralization, as exemplified by Gryphon and Phoenix uranium deposits, suggests that the localization of dilation predicted by numerical modeling may represent favourable sites for uranium mineralization in the Athabasca Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On December 4, 2007, a three million cubic metres landslide impacted Chehalis Lake, 80 km east of Vancouver, Canada. The failed mass rushed into the lake and parented a tsunami that ran up 38m on the opposite shore, destroyed trees, roads and campsite facilities. Armed with field surveys and multihigh-tech observations from SONAR, LiDAR and orthophotographs, we apply the newly developed 'Tsunami Squares' method to simulate the Chehalis Lake landslide and its generated tsunami. The landslide simulation shows a progressive failure, flow speeds up to ~60ms-1, and a slide mass stoppage with uniformrepose angle on the lakebed. Tsunami products suggest that landslide velocity and spatial scale influence the initial wave size, while wave energy decay and inundation heights are affected by a combination of distance to the landslide, bathymetry and shoreline orientation relative to the wave direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian urban and land surface external modeling system (known as urban GEM-SURF) has been developed to provide surface and near-surface meteorological variables to improve numerical weather prediction and to become a tool for environmental applications. The system is based on the Town Energy Balance model for the built-up covers and on the Interactions between the Surface, Biosphere, and Atmosphere land surface model for the natural covers. It is driven by coarse-resolution forecasts from the 15-km Canadian regional operational model. This new system was tested for a 120-m grid-size computational domain covering the Montreal metropolitan region from 1 May to 30 September 2008. The numerical results were first evaluated against local observations of the surface energy budgets, air temperature, and humidity taken at the Environmental Prediction in Canadian Cities (EPiCC) field experiment tower sites. As compared with the regional deterministic 15-km model, important improvements have been achieved with this system over urban and suburban sites. GEM-SURF's ability to simulate the Montreal surface urban heat island was also investigated, and the radiative surface temperatures from this system and from two systems operational at the Meteorological Service of Canada were compared, that is, the 15-km regional deterministic model and the so-called limited-area model with 2.5-km grid size. Comparison of urban GEM-SURF outputs with remotely sensed observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reveals relatively good agreement for urban and natural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents a study on the trends in timing of low flows in Canada for Reference Hydrometric Basin Network based on independence, short-term persistence (STP), and long-term persistence (LTP). The study examines the timing of low flows during summer and winter, and uses Mann-Kendall trend test and numerical analysis. The study shows that timing of summer low flow changed toward the later dates in western Canada, while timing of winter low flow was dominant in earlier dates over Canada.

Copyright of Canadian Geotechnical Journal is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Turbulence inhomogeneities at 3-m scales can be either isotropic or anisotropic, and the degree of anisotropy can be measured with VHF wind profiler radars. Studies over a period of two years in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, have shown that for this site during nonwinter months, the occurrence of isotropic turbulence at 3-m scales serves as a useful diagnostic for the occurrence of rainfall. Turbulent eddies are expected to be most isotropic when wind shears are weak and the atmosphere is either unstable or close to instability. The measurements show that when the turbulence is most isotropic, rainfall is very common. Furthermore, the development of quasi-isotropic turbulence usually occurs before the onset of precipitation. Lead times are typically of the order of 1 to 6 h. Correlation coefficients between the occurrence of strong isotropy and the development of rain generally exceed 0.6, and can be as high as 0.7. Further studies will be required to determine whether this phenomenon is specific to the Montreal area, or can be applied to other locations as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A numerical study was conducted to characterize the probability and intensity of storm surge hazards in Canada's western Arctic. The utility of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) dataset to force numerical simulations of storm surges was explored. Fifty historical storm surge events that were captured on a tide gauge near Tuktoyaktuk, Northwest Territories, were simulated using a two-dimensional (depth-averaged) hydrodynamic model accounting for the influence of sea ice on air-sea momentum transfer. The extent of sea ice and the duration of the ice season has been reducing in the Arctic region, which may contribute to increasing risk from storm surge-driven hazards. Comparisons between winter storm events under present-day ice concentrations and future open-water scenarios revealed that the decline in ice cover has potential to result in storm surges that are up to three times higher. The numerical model was also used to hindcast a significant surge event that was not recorded by the tide gauge, but for which driftwood lines along the coast provided insights to the high-water marks. Compared to measurements at proximate meteorological stations, the ERA5 reanalysis dataset provided reasonable estimates of atmospheric pressure but did not accurately capture peak wind speeds during storm surge events. By adjusting the wind drag coefficients to compensate, reasonably accurate predictions of storm surges were attained for most of the simulated events. The extreme value probability distributions (i.e., return periods and values) of the storm surges were significantly altered when events absent from the tide gauge record were included in the frequency analysis, demonstrating the value of non-conventional data sources, such as driftwood line surveys, in supporting coastal hazard assessments in remote regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]