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Objectives Sex differences in COVID-19 severity and mortality have been described. Key aims of this analysis were to compare the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and mortality by sex and to explore whether variation in specific biomarkers could mediate this difference. Methods This was a retrospective, observational cohort study among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. A survival analysis was conducted to compare time to the composite endpoint of IMV or death by sex. Interaction was formally tested to compare the risk difference by sex in subsets. Mediation analysis with a binary endpoint IMV or death (yes/no) by end of follow-up for a number of inflammation/coagulation biomarkers in the context of counterfactual prediction was also conducted. Results Among 415 patients, 134 were females (32%) and 281 males (67%), median age 66 years (IQR 54-77). At admission, females showed a significantly less severe clinical and respiratory profiles with a higher PaO2/FiO2 (254 mmHg vs 191 mmHg; p=0.023). By 28 days from admission, 49.2% (95% CI: 39.6-58.9%) of males vs. 31.7% (17.9-45.4%) of females underwent IMV or death (log-rank p-value Conclusions Our analysis confirms a difference in the risk of COVID-19 clinical progression by sex and provides a hypothesis for potential mechanisms leading to this. CRP showed a predominant role to mediate the difference in risk by sex.

Objective Zero risk of linked HIV transmission in serodiscordant couples when the HIV-infected partner had viral load less than 200 copies/ml ('U status') was found in observational studies. We aimed at estimating the proportion of time in which 'U status' was maintained and identifying factors associated with the risk of losing it. Design Observational cohort study. Methods We included participants in the ICONA cohort who had reached an established 'U status' (viral load ≤200 copies/ml for >6 months) as of December 2010. The outcome was the number of person-days of follow-up (PDFU) above a viral load greater than 200 copies/ml, relative to the total number of PDFU observed. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors independently associated with the risk of losing 'U status'. Results Eight thousand, two hundred and forty-one persons living with HIV were included in the analysis who contributed 2 670 888 PDFU. Of these, 1648 (20%) were women, 768 (9%) were people who inject drugs (PWID), and 2066 (25%) were foreign-born. The median of viral load measurements was 9 (IQR: 4-15). Overall, only 3.1% of PDFU were observed when viral load was above 200 copies/ml. The proportion of PDFU with viral load more than 200 copies/ml was higher than average in women (5.3%), unemployed (5.4%), PWID (4.7%), and in people with more than three previous virologic failures (6.3%). These variables were significant predictors of losing 'U status' in the multivariable logistic regression. Conclusion Our results reinforce the validity of the U=U message in real-world setting. However, we identified subsets of our study population at higher risk of losing the 'U status' for whom additional efforts are needed.

Objectives The aim of this analysis was to characterize transmitted drug resistance (TDR) in Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment (START) study participants by next-generation sequencing (NGS), a sensitive assay capable of detecting low-frequency variants. Methods Stored plasma from participants with entry HIV RNA > 1000 copies/mL were analysed by NGS (Illumina MiSeq). TDR was based on the WHO 2009 surveillance definition with the addition of reverse transcriptase (RT) mutations T215N and E138K, and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI) surveillance mutations (Stanford HIVdb). Drug resistance mutations (DRMs) detected at three thresholds are reported: > 2%, 5% and 20% of the viral population. Results Between 2009 and 2013, START enrolled 4684 antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals in 35 countries. Baseline NGS data at study entry were available for 2902 participants. Overall prevalence rates of TDR using a detection threshold of 2%/5%/20% were 9.2%/5.6%/3.2% for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 9.2%/6.6%/4.9% for non-NRTIs, 11.4%/5.5%/2.4% for protease inhibitors (PIs) and 3.5%/1.6%/0.1% for INSTI DRMs and varied by geographic region. Using the 2% detection threshold, individual DRMs with the highest prevalence were: PI M46IL (5.5%), RT K103NS (3.5%), RT G190ASE (3.1%), T215ISCDVEN (2.5%), RT M41L (2.2%), RT K219QENR (1.7%) and PI D30N (1.6%). INSTI DRMs were detected almost exclusively below the 20% detection threshold, most commonly Y143H (0.4%), Q148R (0.4%) and T66I (0.4%). Conclusions Use of NGS in this study population resulted in the detection of a large proportion of low-level variants which would not have been detected by traditional Sanger sequencing. Global surveillance studies utilizing NGS should provide a more comprehensive assessment of TDR prevalence in different regions of the world.

ObjectivesOur aim was to investigate the durability of different initial regimens in patients starting ART with CD4+ counts 5 log10 copies/mL.MethodsThis was a retrospective study of HIV-infected patients prospectively followed in the ICONA cohort. Those who started ART with boosted protease inhibitors (bPIs), NNRTIs or integrase strand transfer inhibitors (InSTIs), with CD4+ 5 log10 copies/mL, were included. The primary endpoint was treatment failure (TF), a composite endpoint defined as virological failure (VF, first of two consecutive HIV-RNA >50 copies/mL after 6 months of treatment), discontinuation of class of the anchor drug or death. Independent associations were investigated by Poisson regression analysis in a model including age, gender, mode of HIV transmission, CDC stage, HCV and HBV co-infection, pre-treatment HIV-RNA, CD4+ count and CD4+/CD8+ ratio, ongoing opportunistic disease, fibrosis FIB-4 index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, haemoglobin, platelets, neutrophils, calendar year of ART initiation, anchor drug class (treatment group) and nucleos(t)ide backbone.ResultsA total of 1195 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 696 started ART with a bPI, 315 with an InSTI and 184 with an NNRTI. During 2759 person-years of follow up, 642 patients experienced TF. Starting ART with bPIs [adjusted incidence rate ratio (aIRR) (95% CI) 1.62 (1.29–2.03) versus starting with NNRTIs; P ConclusionsIn patients starting ART with 5 log10 HIV-RNA copies/mL, the durability of regimens based on InSTIs was longer than that of NNRTI- and bPI-based regimens.

A long period of isolation was observed in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Milan over March-September 2020 (45; IQR: 37–54 days). A significantly shorter period would have been observed by the application of May-WHO (22, IQR: 17–30 days, P < 0.001) and October-Italian (26, IQR: 21–34 days, P < 0.001) Guidelines. The adoption of the new symptom-based criteria is likely to lead to a significant reduction in the length of the isolation period with potential social, economic and psychological benefits, particularly in the younger population with mild/moderate disease and no comorbidities. In our opinion, the release from isolation after 21 days from symptoms onset, even without a PCR diagnostic test, in most cases seems the most adequate strategy that could balance precautions to prevent SARS CoV-2 transmission and unnecessary prolonged isolation or overuse of diagnostic testing.

Background Despite the effectiveness of cART, people living with HIV still experience an increased risk of serious non-AIDS events, as compared to the HIV negative population. Whether pre-cART microbial translocation (MT) and systemic inflammation might predict morbidity/mortality during suppressive cART, independently of other known risk factors, is still unclear. Thus, we aimed to investigate the role of pre-cART inflammation and MT as predictors of clinical progression in HIV+ patients enrolled in the Icona Foundation Study Cohort. Methods We included Icona patients with ≥2 vials of plasma stored within 6 months before cART initiation and at least one CD4 count after therapy available. Circulating biomarker: LPS, sCD14, EndoCab, hs-CRP. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models were used. We defined the endpoint of clinical progression as the occurrence of a new AIDS-defining condition, severe non-AIDS condition (SNAEs) or death whichever occurred first. Follow-up accrued from the data of starting cART and was censored at the time of last available clinical visit. Biomarkers were evaluated as both binary (above/below median) and continuous variables (logescale). Results We studied 486 patients with 125 clinical events: 39 (31%) AIDS, 66 (53%) SNAEs and 20 (16%) deaths. Among the analyzed MT and pro-inflammatory markers, hs-CRP seemed to be the only biomarker retaining some association with the endpoint of clinical progression (i.e. AIDS/SNAEs/death) after adjustment for confounders, both when the study population was stratified according to the median of the distribution (1.51 mg/L) and when the study population was stratified according to the 33% percentiles of the distribution (low 0.0–1.1 mg/L; intermediate 1.2–5.3 mg/L; high > 5.3 mg/L). In particular, the higher the hs-CRP values, the higher the risk of clinical progression (p = 0.056 for median-based model; p = 0.002 for 33% percentile-based model). Conclusions Our data carries evidence for an association between the risk of disease progression after cART initiation and circulating pre-cART hs-CRP levels but not with levels of MT. These results suggest that pre-therapy HIV-driven pro-inflammatory milieu might overweight MT and its downstream immune-activation.

Background Most COVID-19 treatment guidelines currently recommend tocilizumab in combination with dexamethasone in critically ill patients who are exhibiting rapid respiratory decompensation. Objectives To produce a critical review and summary of the pathway which led to the repurposing of tocilizumab for COVID-19 treatment, from in vitro observations to guidelines recommendations. Sources All studies evaluating the effectiveness of tocilizumab to treat COVID-19 disease published over July 2020-July 2021. Content Two large methodologically well conducted observational studies, the TESEO and the STOP COVID cohorts, showed a reduction in the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation or death in patients treated with tocilizumab as compared to standard of care in 2020. Concomitantly and up to February 2021 a number of small sample size randomized trials (RCTs) were showing discrepant results. These RCTs had a number of issues: small sample size, various designs and inclusion criteria and different dosages of tocilizumab used. The confidence interval of the meta-analytic estimate for the RCT results was consistent with the hypothesis of no efficacy of tocilizumab. In our opinion, this was mainly because the meta-analysis included small and heterogeneous studies. These results led to a delay in the inclusion of tocilizumab in guidelines which occurred only in the summer of 2021. Implications Although observational studies are unable to control for unmeasured confounding, they can be put together quickly during a pandemic and promptly provide important information. The large sample size allows us to investigate effect measure modifiers and better target interventions. It is key that the effect size is somewhat large (RR>2), all sources of bias are properly accounted for and the direct evidence is weighted against these factors. It appears to us that for tocilizumab, not having dismissed the results of carefully designed and analysed observational studies in 2020 could have prevented many deaths over those months.

BackgroundThe aim of this secondary analysis of the TESEO cohort is to identify, early in the course of treatment with tocilizumab, factors associated with the risk of progressing to mechanical ventilation and death and develop a risk score to estimate the risk of this outcome according to patients' profile.MethodsPatients with COVID-19 severe pneumonia receiving standard of care + tocilizumab who were alive and free from mechanical ventilation at day 6 after treatment initiation were included in this retrospective, multicenter cohort study. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of mechanical ventilation or death by day-28 from treatment initiation and β-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Secondary outcome was mortality. Patients with the same inclusion criteria as the derivation cohort from 3 independent hospitals were used as validation cohort.Results266 patients treated with tocilizumab were included. By day 28 of hospital follow-up post treatment initiation, 40 (15%) underwent mechanical ventilation or died [26 (10%)]. At multivariable analysis, sex, day-4 PaO2/FiO2 ratio, platelets and CRP were independently associated with the risk of developing the study outcomes and were used to generate the proposed risk score. The accuracy of the score in AUC was 0.80 and 0.70 in internal validation and test for the composite endpoint and 0.92 and 0.69 for death, respectively.ConclusionsOur score could assist clinicians in identifying, early after tocilizumab administration, patients who are likely to progress to mechanical ventilation or death, so that they could be selected for eventual rescue therapies.

Objectives: No specific treatment has been approved for COVID-19. Lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) have been used with poor results, and a trial showed advantages of combined antiviral therapy vs. single antivirals. The aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of the combination of antivirals (LPV/r and HCQ) or their single use in COVID-19 hospitalized patients vs. standard of care (SoC).Methods: Patients ≥18 years with SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as positive RT-PCR from nasal/oropharyngeal (NP/OP) swab or positive serology, admitted at L. Spallanzani Institute (Italy) were included.Primary endpoint: time to invasive ventilation/death. Secondary endpoint: time to two consecutive negative SARS-CoV-2 PCRs in NP/OP swabs. In order to control for measured confounders, a marginal Cox regression model with inverse probability weights was used.Results: A total of 590 patients were included in the analysis: 36.3% female, 64 years (IQR 51–76), and 91% with pneumonia. Cumulative probability of invasive ventilation/death at 14 days was 21.2% (95% CI 17.6, 24.7), without difference between SOC, LPV/r, hydroxychloroquine, HCQ + LPV/r, and SoC. The risk of invasive ventilation/death in the groups appeared to vary by baseline ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2). Overall cumulative probability of confirmed negative nasopharyngeal swabs at 14 days was 44.4% (95% CI 38.9, 49.9), without difference between groups.Conclusion: In this retrospective analysis, we found no difference in the rate of invasive ventilation/death or viral shedding by different strategies, as in randomized trials performed to date. Moreover, even the combination HCQ + LPV/r did not show advantages vs. SoC.

Infections have become the major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) due to immune dysfunction and cytotoxic CLL treatment. Yet, predictive models for infection are missing. In this work, we develop the CLL Treatment-Infection Model (CLL-TIM) that identifies patients at risk of infection or CLL treatment within 2 years of diagnosis as validated on both internal and external cohorts. CLL-TIM is an ensemble algorithm composed of 28 machine learning algorithms based on data from 4,149 patients with CLL. The model is capable of dealing with heterogeneous data, including the high rates of missing data to be expected in the real-world setting, with a precision of 72% and a recall of 75%. To address concerns regarding the use of complex machine learning algorithms in the clinic, for each patient with CLL, CLL-TIM provides explainable predictions through uncertainty estimates and personalized risk factors., Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is an indolent disease, and many patients succumb to infection rather than the direct effects of the disease. Here, the authors use medical records and machine learning to predict the patients that may be at risk of infection, which may enable a change in the course of their treatment.

Background: No therapy is approved for COVID-19 pneumonia. The aim of this study was to assess the role of tocilizumab in reducing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation and death in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who received standard of care treatment. Methods: This retrospective, observational cohort study included adults (≥18 years) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia who were admitted to tertiary care centres in Bologna and Reggio Emilia, Italy, between Feb 21 and March 24, 2020, and a tertiary care centre in Modena, Italy, between Feb 21 and April 30, 2020. All patients were treated with the standard of care (ie, supplemental oxygen, hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, antiretrovirals, and low molecular weight heparin), and a non-randomly selected subset of patients also received tocilizumab. Tocilizumab was given either intravenously at 8 mg/kg bodyweight (up to a maximum of 800 mg) in two infusions, 12 h apart, or subcutaneously at 162 mg administered in two simultaneous doses, one in each thigh (ie, 324 mg in total), when the intravenous formulation was unavailable. The primary endpoint was a composite of invasive mechanical ventilation or death. Treatment groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis after adjusting for sex, age, recruiting centre, duration of symptoms, and baseline Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Findings: Of 1351 patients admitted, 544 (40%) had severe COVID-19 pneumonia and were included in the study. 57 (16%) of 365 patients in the standard care group needed mechanical ventilation, compared with 33 (18%) of 179 patients treated with tocilizumab (p=0·41; 16 [18%] of 88 patients treated intravenously and 17 [19%] of 91 patients treated subcutaneously). 73 (20%) patients in the standard care group died, compared with 13 (7%; p

Objectives: To analyse the variation of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and genotype distribution and their determinants in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who entered care between 1997 and 2015. Methods: HIV-infected patients enrolled in ICONA who were tested for HCV antibodies (HCV-Ab) were included. Results: Overall 3407 of 12 135 (28.1%) were HCV-Ab+; and 735 of 12 135 (6.1%) were HBsAg+. Among patients whose HCV genotype was known, the most represented were genotypes 1 and 3. The prevalence of HCV infection decreased from 49.2% (2565/5217) during 1997–2002 to 10.2% (556/5466) during 2009–2015. The frequency of genotype 1a increased from 29.0% (264/911) to 43.0% (129/300), whereas genotype 3 decreased from 38.5% (351/911) to 27.0% (81/300). Independent predictors of HCV-Ab+ status were being female (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.04–1.50, p = 0.01), risk category (versus injecting drug users: men who have sex with men AOR 0.01, 95% CI 0.01–0.01, p

BackgroundTo analyse the effect of drug resistance mutations (DRM) on CD4+T-cell (CD4) trends in HIV-positive people maintained on virologically failing anti-retroviral therapy (ART).MethodsIndividuals from two large cohorts experiencing virological failure (VF) while maintained on ART with ≥1 CD4 count and ≥1 resistance test were included. CD4 slopes were estimated using linear mixed models. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to assess the effect of clusters of mutations, defined using extracted component based scores from the PCA, on CD4 decline.Results5,357 individuals contributing 7,661 VF episodes were included: any DRM were detected in 88.8% of episodes. After adjustment, CD4 counts declined less steeply during episodes where DRM were detected compared to episodes with no DRM (difference =28 cells/mm3/year, 95% CI =18, 39; PConclusionsDetection of resistance and of certain DRM during VF of ART has a small but significant favourable effect on CD4 decline.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of primary resistance and selected polymorphic amino-acid substitutions in HIV reverse transcriptase and protease on the CD4 cell count and viral load set point before the start of antiretroviral treatment. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 6180 individuals with a resistance test prior to starting antiretroviral treatment accessing care in HIV clinics across Europe who had at least one viral load and one CD4+ test available were included in the analysis. The impact of amino-acid substitutions variants on viral load and CD4+ trends was investigated using linear mixed models. Clusters of mutations were studied using principal component analysis. RESULTS: Overall, the detection of any primary resistance was not associated with either the speed of CD4+ cell decline or the viral load set point. However, transmitted nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and protease inhibitor resistance appeared to be weakly associated with lower viral load set points, as were the polymorphic G16E or Q92K protease mutations. There was some evidence suggesting that these effects varied according to HIV subtype, with the effects of transmitted nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and protease resistance being particularly marked among individuals with a subtype B virus. A cluster of five polymorphic protease substitutions at position 20, 13, 36, 69 and 89 was associated with less steep CD4+ cell declines and lower viral load set points. CONCLUSION: Although we found little evidence for an association between primary resistance and CD4+ speed of decline and viral load set point, the potential role of polymorphic protease (alone or in clusters) and their interplay with HIV subtype needs to be further evaluated. ispartof: AIDS vol:33 issue:2 pages:315-326 ispartof: location:England status: published

Safety and tolerability evaluation of adapted dose regimens containing fosamprenavir/ritonavir (FPV/r) in HIV-infected subjects with viral hepatitis co-infection.A retrospective multicohort analysis was conducted. Subjects from three European cohorts who started FPV/r or lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) as a comparator contributed data to a centralized database. Subjects were divided into five groups by treatment regimen and level of hepatic impairment (aspartate aminotransferase [AST] platelet ratio index [APRI] scoreor ≥2). Multivariable Cox regression analyses controlling for demographic factors, baseline CD4 count, FIB-4 score, use of antiretroviral therapy, and laboratory markers (bilirubin and platelet count) were performed to identify factors independently associated with risk of developing adverse events or safety events (eg, drug discontinuation, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevation, hepatic decompensation/death).A total of 1096 patients contributed data to the study. Fosamprenavir/ritonavir (except in subjects with APRI ≥2 receiving standard dose) was associated with a higher two-year risk of drug discontinuation compared with LPV/r. Restricting the analysis to discontinuations due to adverse events (AEs), only subjects who received the reduced dose were more likely to discontinue ≥1 drug in the FPV/r regimen. There were no statistical differences in ALT elevation between groups. Incidence of hepatic decompensation events was similar among groups except for subjects who received non standard doses of FPV, though the number of events was small.Fosamprenavir/ritonavir discontinuation rate due to AEs or ALT elevation was similar across all European-approved FPV/r doses and to that of LPV/r subjects. Although liver tolerated antiretrovirals, such as integrase inhibitor and entry inhibitor, the use of FPV/r is acceptable in HIV infected patients with viral hepatitis.

Plasma drug-resistant minority human immunodeficiency virus type 1 variants (DRMVs) increase the risk of virological failure to first-line non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor antiretroviral therapy (ART). The origin of DRMVs in ART-naive patients, however, remains unclear. In a large pan-European case-control study investigating the clinical relevance of pre-existing DRMVs using 454 pyrosequencing, the six most prevalent plasma DRMVs detected corresponded to G-to-A nucleotide mutations (V90I, V106I, V108I, E138K, M184I and M230I). Here, we evaluated if such DRMVs could have emerged from apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide 3G/F (APOBEC3G/F) activity. Out of 236 ART-naive subjects evaluated, APOBEC3G/F hypermutation signatures were detected in plasma viruses of 14 (5.9%) individuals. Samples with minority E138K, M184I, and M230I mutations, but not those with V90I, V106I or V108I, were significantly associated with APOBEC3G/F activity (Fisher's P0.005), defined as the presence of0.5% of sample sequences with an APOBEC3G/F signature. Mutations E138K, M184I and M230I co-occurred in the same sequence as APOBEC3G/F signatures in 3/9 (33%), 5/11 (45%) and 4/8 (50%) of samples, respectively; such linkage was not found for V90I, V106I or V108I. In-frame STOP codons were observed in 1.5% of all clonal sequences; 14.8% of them co-occurred with APOBEC3G/F signatures. APOBEC3G/F-associated E138K, M184I and M230I appeared within clonal sequences containing in-frame STOP codons in 2/3 (66%), 5/5 (100%) and 4/4 (100%) of the samples. In a re-analysis of the parent case control study, the presence of APOBEC3G/F signatures was not associated with virological failure. In conclusion, the contribution of APOBEC3G/F editing to the development of DRMVs is very limited and does not affect the efficacy of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor ART.

Objectives To evaluate the durability of three integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) and two NRTIs in ART-naive individuals. Methods The study design was observational. Patients were HIV-positive, ART-naive subjects starting raltegravir, elvitegravir/cobicistat or dolutegravir with two NRTIs. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure, i.e. occurrence of virological failure (first of two consecutive plasma HIV RNAs ≥200 copies/mL after 24 weeks) or INSTI discontinuation for any reason apart from simplification. Secondary endpoints were INSTI discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance and CD4 count response. Survival analysis was done using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. Results Two thousand and sixteen patients were included: 310 (15.4%) started raltegravir-based regimens, 994 (49.3%) started dolutegravir-based regimens and 712 (35.3%) started elvitegravir/cobicistat-based regimens. Over a median of 11 months, 167 patients experienced treatment failure; the 1 year probability of treatment failure was 6.5% for raltegravir, 5.4% for dolutegravir and 6.7% for elvitegravir/cobicistat (P = 0.001). Sixty-eight patients (3.4%) discontinued INSTIs owing to toxicity/intolerance. By multivariable analysis, patients starting raltegravir had a 2.03-fold (95% CI = 1.2-3.2) higher risk and patients on elvitegravir/cobicistat a 1.88-fold (95% CI = 1.2-2.9) higher risk of treatment failure versus dolutegravir; there was no difference in risk of discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance when comparing dolutegravir and raltegravir and marginal evidence for a difference when comparing elvitegravir/cobicistat and dolutegravir (adjusted relative hazard = 1.94 for elvitegravir/cobicistat versus dolutegravir, 95% CI = 1.00-3.76, P = 0.05). Conclusions In our real-life setting, INSTI-based regimens showed high potency and durability. Among regimens currently recommended in Europe, those including dolutegravir are associated with a lower risk of treatment failure.

BACKGROUND: Animal models of serious infection suggest that 24 h of induced hypothermia improves circulatory and respiratory function and reduces mortality. We tested the hypothesis that a reduction of core temperature to 32-34°C attenuates organ dysfunction and reduces mortality in ventilator-dependent patients with septic shock.METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, open-label trial, we recruited patients from ten intensive care units (ICUs) in three countries in Europe and North America. Inclusion criteria for patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were a mean arterial pressure of less than 70 mm Hg, mechanical ventilation in an ICU, age at least 50 years, predicted length of stay in the ICU at least 24 h, and recruitment into the study within 6 h of fulfilling inclusion criteria. Exclusion criteria were uncontrolled bleeding, clinically important bleeding disorder, recent open surgery, pregnancy or breastfeeding, or involuntary psychiatric admission. We randomly allocated patients 1:1 (with variable block sizes ranging from four to eight; stratified by predictors of mortality, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and study site) to routine thermal management or 24 h of induced hypothermia (target 32-34°C) followed by 48 h of normothermia (36-38°C). The primary endpoint was 30 day all-cause mortality in the modified intention-to-treat population (all randomly allocated patients except those for whom consent was withdrawn or who were discovered to meet an exclusion criterion after randomisation but before receiving the trial intervention). Patients and health-care professionals giving the intervention were not masked to treatment allocation, but assessors of the primary outcome were. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01455116.FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 2011, and Nov 4, 2016, we screened 5695 patients. After recruitment of 436 of the planned 560 participants, the trial was terminated for futility (220 [50%] randomly allocated to hypothermia and 216 [50%] to routine thermal management). In the hypothermia group, 96 (44·2%) of 217 died within 30 days versus 77 (35·8%) of 215 in the routine thermal management group (difference 8·4% [95% CI -0·8 to 17·6]; relative risk 1·2 [1·0-1·6]; p=0·07]).INTERPRETATION: Among patients with septic shock and ventilator-dependent respiratory failure, induced hypothermia does not reduce mortality. Induced hypothermia should not be used in patients with septic shock.FUNDING: Trygfonden, Lundbeckfonden, and the Danish National Research Foundation.

To evaluate incidence rates of and predictors for any antiretroviral (ART) drug discontinuation by HCV infection status in a large Italian cohort of HIV infected patients. All patients enrolled in ICONA who started combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) containing abacavir or tenofovir or emtricitabine or lamivudine plus efavirenz or rilpivirine or atazanavir/r or darunavir/r (DRV/r) or lopinavir/r or dolutegravir or elvitegravir or raltegravir were included. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to determine factors independently associated with single ART drug discontinuation. Inverse probability weighting method to control for potential informative censoring was applied. Data from 10,637 patients were analyzed and 1,030 (9.7%) were HCV-Ab positive. Overall, there were 15,464 ART discontinuations due to any reason in 82,415.9 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) for an incidence rate (IR) of 18.8 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 18.5–19.1) per 100 PYFU. No difference in IR of ART discontinuation due to any reason between HCV-infected and -uninfected patients was found. In a multivariable Poisson regression model, HCV-infected participants were at higher risk of darunavir/r discontinuation due to any reason (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.5, 95%CI 1.01–2.22, p value = 0.045) independently of demographics, HIV-related, ART and life-style factors. Among DRV/r treated patients, we found that HCV-viremic patients had twice the risk of ART discontinuation due to any reason than HCV-aviremic patients. In conclusion, HIV/HCV coinfected patients had a marginal risk increase of DRV/r discontinuation due to any reason compared with those without coinfection.

Background Persistence of plasma HIV-1 RNA during seemingly effective antiretroviral thereapy (ART) is incompletely understood. Using an ultrasensitive assay, this cross-sectional study investigated residual plasma HIV-1 RNA in subjects maintained on firstline ART with continuous viral load suppression Methods Residual plasma HIV-1 RNA, total HIV-1 DNA and 2-LTRc DNA were quantified by real-time and digital droplet PCR. Cellular (CD4 plus CD26/CD38/CD69; CD8 plus CD38/HLA-DR/DP/DQ) and soluble (sCD14, sCD27, sCD30, IL-6) markers of immune activation were measured by flow cytometry and ELISA. Results Residual plasma HIV-1 RNA and 2-LTRc DNA were detected in 52/104 (50%) and 24/104 (23%) subjects, respectively. Among subjects with detectable HIV-1 RNA, 50/52 showed levels ≤11 copies/mL. In adjusted analyses, HIV-1 RNA levels were 0.37 log10 copies/mL higher with each log10 U/mL increase in sCD27 (95% confidence interval, 0.01–0.73; P = .02). No significant association was found between residual plasma HIV-1 RNA and other explored parameters. Conclusions These findings point to an ongoing relationship between plasma HIV-1 RNA and selected markers of immune activation during continuously suppressive ART. The novel direct association with levels of sCD27 warrants further investigation.

BACKGROUND: Country-specific forecasts of the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in ageing HIV-positive patients will be key to guide future HIV policies. We provided the first national forecasts for Italy and the Unites States of America (USA) and quantified direct cost of caring for these increasingly complex patients. METHODS AND SETTING: We adapted an individual-based model of ageing HIV-positive patients to Italy and the USA, which followed patients on HIV-treatment as they aged and developed NCDs (chronic kidney disease, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension, non-AIDS malignancies, myocardial infarctions and strokes). The models were parameterised using data on 7,469 HIV-positive patients from the Italian Cohort Naive to Antiretrovirals Foundation Study and 3,748 commercially-insured patients in the USA and extrapolated to national level using national surveillance data. RESULTS: The model predicted that mean age of HIV-positive patients will increase from 46 to 59 in Italy and from 49 to 58 in the USA in 2015–2035. The proportion of patients in Italy and the USA diagnosed with ≥1 NCD is estimated to increase from 64% and 71% in 2015 to 89% and 89% by 2035, respectively, driven by moderate cardiovascular disease (CVD) (hypertension and dyslipidaemia), diabetes and malignancies in both countries. NCD treatment costs as a proportion of total direct HIV costs will increase from 11% to 23% in Italy and from 40% to 56% in the USA in 2015–2035. CONCLUSIONS: HIV patient profile in Italy and the USA is shifting to older patients diagnosed with multiple co-morbidity. This will increase NCD treatment costs and require multi-disciplinary patient management.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of treatment failure (TF) to protease inhibitor monotherapies (PI/r-MT) with lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) or darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r). DESIGN: A multicenter cohort of HIV-infected patients with viral load (VL) ≤50 copies/mL, who underwent a switch from any triple combination therapy to PI/r-MT with either LPV/r or DRV/r. METHODS: VL was assessed in each center according to local procedures. Residual viremia was defined by any HIV-RNA value detectable below 50 copies/mL by a Real-Time PCR method. Standard survival analysis was used to estimate the rate of TF (defined by virological failure or interruption of monotherapy or reintroduction of combination therapy). A multivariable Cox regression analysis with automatic stepwise procedures was used to identify factors independently associated with TF among nadir and baseline CD4+ counts, residual viremia, time spent with 100 cells/μL) and residual viremia (aHR = 1.48 [95% CI: 1.01–2.17] vs. undetectable VL) were independently associated to TF. CONCLUSIONS: Residual viremia and nadir CD4+ counts