Search

This article revisits sequential estimation of the autoregressive parameter β in a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model and construction of a sequential confidence region for a parameter vector θ in a first-order threshold autoregressive (TAR(1)) model. To resolve a theoretical conjecture raised in Sriram (1986), we provide a comprehensive numerical study that strongly suggests that theregretin using a sequential estimator of β can be significantlynegativefor many heavy-tailed error distributions and even for normal errors. Secondly, to investigate yet another conjecture about the limiting distribution of a sequential pivotal quantity for θ in a TAR(1) model, we conduct an extensive numerical study that strongly suggests that the sequential confidence region has much better coverage probability than that of a fixed sample counterpart, regardless of whether the θ values are inside or on or near the boundary of the ergodic region of the series. These highlight the usefulness of sequential sampling methods in fitting linear and nonlinear time series models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a notion of central mean dimension reduction subspace for time series {x1} which does not require specification of a model but seeks to find a p x d matrix Φd, d ≤ p, so that the d x 1 vector where ΦdTXt-1 where Xt-1= (xt-1,…Xt-p)T for some p ≥ 1, includes all the information about xt that is available from E(xt∣Xt-1). For known p and d, we estimate the mean central subspace through the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother and establish the strong consistency of our estimator. In addition, we propose estimation of d and p using a modified Schwarz Bayesian criterion, if either of d and p is unknown. Finally, we examine the performance of all the estimators extensively through a variety of simulations and provide a new analysis of the well-known Canadian lynx data. Supplemental materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable time and energy involved in complete counting of large, but pre-specified, batch of Ns items could be saved by using weights of items. This article considers the case when the underlying distribution of weights, and its mean and variance are unknown. The problem is then reduced to that of finding an estimator of the mean and an optimal (small) sample size based on which a number [Ncirc]n of items in the batch can be determined. Using a fixed-width interval criterion, Nickerson [Nickerson, D.M. Another look at counting by weighing. Commun. Statist. Simula. 1993, 22 (2), 323–343] derived an optimal sample size, but it depends on the unknown coefficient of variation. For this case, we propose a batch-type sequential sampling scheme which requires substantially fewer sampling operations and no prior knowledge of the coefficient of variation, but performs as well as Nickerson's and other available procedures in the literature. This shows that a little bit of sampling using substantially fewer sampling operations can significantly reduce the effort of complete counting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]