Central Mean Subspace in Time Series.

We propose a notion of central mean dimension reduction subspace for time series {x1} which does not require specification of a model but seeks to find a p x d matrix Φd, d ≤ p, so that the d x 1 vector where ΦdTXt-1 where Xt-1= (xt-1,…Xt-p)T for some p ≥ 1, includes all the information about xt that is available from E(xt∣Xt-1). For known p and d, we estimate the mean central subspace through the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother and establish the strong consistency of our estimator. In addition, we propose estimation of d and p using a modified Schwarz Bayesian criterion, if either of d and p is unknown. Finally, we examine the performance of all the estimators extensively through a variety of simulations and provide a new analysis of the well-known Canadian lynx data. Supplemental materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]