1. Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant
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Mohammad Raza, Alison E. Mather, Gilberto Betancor, Ian Merrick, Ben Taylor, Mathew A. Beale, Helen Ward, Samir Dervisevic, Michelle Cronin, Aaron R. Jeffries, Louise Smith, Steven Rudder, Mara K. N. Lawniczak, Sascha Ott, Ashok Dadrah, Luke Bedford, Gabrielle Vernet, Erik M. Volz, Rahul Batra, Johnny Debebe, Caoimhe McKerr, Samantha McGuigan, Oliver Megram, Katie Jones, Mailis Maes, Rebecca Dewar, Emma Swindells, Robert E. Johnson, Myra Hosmillo, Wen C Yew, Vineet Patel, Scott Aj Thurston, Matthew Bashton, Luke B Snell, Lynn Monaghan, David Buck, Gregory R Young, Garren Scott, Louis du Plessis, Sara Kumziene-Summerhayes, David M. Aanensen, Carl Jones, Nadine Holmes, Bernardo Gutierrez, Elizabeth Wastenge, Stavroula F Louka, Dennis Wang, Richard I. Gregory, M. Estée Török, Alistair C. Darby, Ulf Schaefer, Marc Niebel, David Robertson, E. Thomson, Carol Churcher, Patrick C McClure, Scott Elliott, Sarah Jeremiah, Katerina Galai, Matthew W. Loose, Megan Mayhew, Adhyana I K Mahanama, Angeliki Karamani, Naomi R Park, David J. Williams, Lance Turtle, Lucy R. Frost, Alicia Thornton, Jennifier Liddle, M Morgan, Tim Wyatt, Paul W Bird, Chloe Bishop, Esther Robinson, Alasdair MacLean, Inigo Martincorena, Bridget A. Knight, Emma Meader, Thomas R. Connor, Hermione J. Webster, Peter Muir, Sarah Walsh, Stephanie W. Lo, Andrew Bosworth, Hannah E Bridgewater, David Simpson, Radoslaw Poplawski, Angus I. Best, David Baker, Laura Letchford, Cassie Breen, Yann Bourgeois, Matthew Gemmell, Nikki Smith, Alison Holmes, Iliana Georgana, Christophe Fraser, Natasha Jesudason, Johnathan M Evans, Rachael Stanley, Lesley-Anne Williams, Jessica Lynch, Hannah Lowe, Eleri Wilson-Davies, Paul A. Baker, Alex Makunin, James Bonfield, Helen Adams, Christopher Fearn, Peter J. Diggle, Harry D Wilson, Carmen F. Manso, Nichola Duckworth, D Haw, Anna L. Casey, Audrey Farbos, Sam Haldenby, Vicki Chalker, Roberto Amato, Elen De Lacy, Ben Farr, Eric Witele, Buddhini Samaraweera, G MacIntyre-Cockett, Husam Osman, Jane Greenaway, Justin O'Grady, Sally Forrest, Andrew Nelson, Monika Pusok, A Lloyd, Edward Barton, James W. Harrison, Sophie Palmer, Amanda Symmonds, James Shepherd, Nazreen F. Hadjirin, Stephen L. Michell, Mohammed O Hassan-Ibrahim, Fiona Ashcroft, Daniel Mair, Richard H. Myers, Dianne Irish-Tavares, Hannah C. Howson-Wells, Jacqui Prieto, Christine Sambles, Andrew Hesketh, Alp Aydin, Sónia Gonçalves, Tabitha Mahungu, Tanzina Haque, Nicholas Ellaby, Karen Oliver, Hannah Paul, Joanne Watts, Claire McMurray, Lisa J Levett, Darren Smith, Simon Cottrell, Joanna Warwick-Dugdale, Pinglawathee Madona, Matthew J. Dorman, Lizzie Meadows, Ali R Awan, Leanne M Kermack, Jennifer Hart, Angie Lackenby, Carol Scott, Michael Spencer Chapman, Lucille Rainbow, Kyriaki Nomikou, Julianne R Brown, Juan Ledesma, Adam P Westhorpe, Giri Shankar, Karlie Fallon, Tim J Sloan, Joanne Watkins, Robert Impey, Sue Edwards, Rebecca C H Brown, Robin J Moll, Karla Spellman, Laura Gifford, Jamie Young, Adrienn Angyal, Graham Phillip Taylor, Robin Manley, Gavin Dabrera, Michelle Wantoch, Rachel Williams, David Heyburn, Mirko Menegazzo, Derrick W. Crook, Gaia Nebbia, Rachel Nelson, Elaine O'Toole, Luke Foulser, Katherine L Harper, Fatima Downing, Hassan Hartman, Nathan Moore, Gemma L. Kay, Matthew Wyles, Thanh Le-Viet, Edith Vamos, John Sillitoe, Lesley Shirley, Nicholas J. Loman, Iona Willingham, Elihu Aranday-Cortes, Ian B Vipond, Jeremy Mirza, Alberto C Cerda, Michelle L Michelsen, Steven Riley, Alison Cox, Igor Siveroni, Nadua Bayzid, Shavanthi Rajatileka, Giselda Bucca, Benjamin J Cogger, Tim Boswell, Matthew J. Bull, Stephen Carmichael, Lisa Berry, Frances Bolt, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Martyn Guest, Sarojini Pandey, Katherine L. Bellis, Shane A. McCarthy, Christopher Ruis, Fei Sang, David Bonsall, Danni Weldon, Alex Alderton, Lee Graham, Amy Trebes, Sally Corden, Adrian W Signell, Tanya Golubchik, Huw Gulliver, Rocio Martinez Nunez, Dinesh Aggarwal, Tanya Curran, Jonathan K. Ball, Sharif Shaaban, Paul Randell, Jillian Durham, Alec Birchley, Matilde Mori, Joana Dias, Katherine A Twohig, Grant Hall, Antony D Hale, Alan McNally, Jonathan D. Edgeworth, Safiah Afifi, Andrew Rambaut, Katherine Smollett, David N. Lee, Tamyo Mbisa, Shahjahan Miah, Steven Rushton, Grace Taylor-Joyce, Hannah M Pymont, Chloe L Fisher, Cordelia Langford, Alex G. Richter, Jane A. H. Masoli, Michael Gallagher, Vicki M. Fleming, Kathleen A. Williamson, Anna Price, Holli Carden, Khalil Abudahab, Joanne D. Stockton, Meera Unnikrishnan, Jennifer Collins, Emma Moles-Garcia, Michaela John, Christine Kitchen, Tranprit Saluja, Ian Harrison, Lily Tong, Thomas G. Thompson, Thomas Helmer, Amita Patel, Siona Silveira, Deborah Ashby, Claire M Bewshea, Anita Justice, Brendan A I Payne, Alexander J. Trotter, Nikos Manesis, Katie F. Loveson, Cristina V. Ariani, Wendy Chatterton, Robert J. Munn, Julian A. Hiscox, Robert Beer, Judith Breuer, Caroline E. Walters, Liam Crawford, Ara Darzi, Will P. M. Rowe, Cariad Evans, Matthew Parker, Tammy V Merrill, Louise Aigrain, Joshua Quick, Leigh M Jackson, Samuel M. Nicholls, Jonathan W. Moore, John A Hartley, Graham P. Taylor, Cherian Koshy, Shirelle Burton-Fanning, Sheila Waugh, Catherine Moore, Danielle C. Groves, Peijun Zhang, Sahar Eldirdiri, Derek Fairley, Tim E. A. Peto, Jack Cd Lee, Sharon Glaysher, Liam Prestwood, Hannah Dent, Anita Kenyon, Stephen P. Kidd, Nick Levene, Igor Starinskij, Joseph G. Chappell, Steve Paterson, Gary Eltringham, Laia Fina, Angela Marchbank, Daniel Bradshaw, Marina Escalera Zamudio, Scott Goodwin, Andrew D Beggs, Seema Nickbakhsh, Trevor Robinson, Christina Atchison, David K. Jackson, Kathy Li, Rory Gunson, Sunando Roy, Graham S Cooke, Steven Liggett, Yasmin Chaudhry, Anoop Chauhan, Ben Temperton, Mariateresa de Cesare, Paul E Brown, Li Xu-McCrae, Martin P McHugh, Catherine Ludden, Wendy Smith, Danielle Leek, Divya K. Shah, Judith Heaney, Dominic P. Kwiatkowski, Kate M. Johnson, Robin Howe, Malorie Perry, Tetyana I. Vasylyeva, David F. Bibby, Haowei Wang, Steve Palmer, Nicholas W Machin, Charlotte A Williams, Bree Gatica-Wilcox, Angie Green, John A. Todd, Paul Elliott, Noel Craine, Jeffrey K. J. Cheng, Kate Templeton, Jonathan Hubb, Joshua Maksimovic, Christl A. Donnelly, Monique Andersson, Christopher Holmes, Dimitris Grammatopoulos, Christopher B. Williams, David G Partridge, Aminu S Jahun, Alexander Adams, Marius Cotic, Sarah Essex, Christopher J. Moore, Trudy Workman, Nicola Sheriff, Helen L Lowe, Ewan M. Harrison, Dorota Jamrozy, Rachel Jones, Ellen Higginson, Erwan Acheson, Christopher R. Jones, Oliver G. Pybus, Francesc Coll, Sian Morgan, Paul J. Parsons, Patawee Asamaphan, Veena Raviprakash, Andrew R. Bassett, Declan Bradley, Laura Atkinson, Anthony Underwood, Graciela Sluga, Sally Kay, Ellena Brooks, Oliver Eales, Andrew Whitwham, Surendra Parmar, Angela Cowell, Nicole Pacchiarini, Theocharis Tsoleridis, Jason Coombes, Robert Davies, Flavia Flaviani, Benita Percival, Jenna Nichols, Natasha M. Johnson, Salman Goudarzi, Hibo Asad, Amanda Bradley, Hannah Jones, Chrystala Constantinidou, Georgina M McManus, Minal Patel, Steven Leonard, Rebecca Williams Bmbs, Andrew J. Page, Christoph Puethe, Nicola Reynolds, Amy Ash, John Danesh, Corin Yeats, Claudia Wierzbicki, Kordo Saeed, John Boyes, Michael A. Quail, Sharon J. Peacock, Nabil-Fareed Alikhan, Jon-Paul Keatley, Claudio Fronterre, Garry Scarlett, James McKenna, Thushan I de Silva, Malte L Pinckert, Kate B. Cook, Amy Gaskin, Rajiv Shah, Matthew T. G. Holden, Sophie J Prosolek, Nathaniel Storey, Ryan P George, Lindsay Coupland, Jenifer Mason, Matthew Carlile, Thomas D Stanton, Guy Mollett, Siddharth Mookerjee, Mary Ramsay, Steven Platt, Stephen W Attwood, Susanne Stonehouse, Sophie Jones, Venkat Sivaprakasam, Amy Plimmer, Mark Whitehead, Catherine Bresner, Stefanie V Lensing, Louissa R Macfarlane-Smith, Colin P. Smith, Wendy Hogsden, Charlotte Nelson, Ian Johnston, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Joshua B Singer, Samuel Robson, Zoltán Molnár, Emma L. Wise, Sian Ellard, Kim S Smith, Alice Broos, Manjinder Khakh, Kathryn A Jackson, Claire Cormie, Rachel Tucker, Ian Goodfellow, S.E. Moses, Nicola Cumley, Meera Chand, Debra Padgett, Cassandra S Malone, James V. Price, Themoula Charalampous, Ronan A Lyons, Natalie Groves, Stefan Rooke, Rebekah E Wilson, Stephen Bonner, Richard Stark, Sharon Campbell, Michelle Lister, Carlos Balcazar, Ana da Silva Filipe, Ben Warne, Thomas N. Williams, Marta Gallis, Lauren Gilbert, Rose K Davidson, Angela Helen Beckett, Ember Hilvers, Kathryn McCluggage, Eileen Gallagher, Charlotte Beaver, Nick Cortes, Alisha Davies, Yusri Taha, Leah Ensell, Emanuela Pelosi, Elias Allara, Cressida Auckland, Eleanor Drury, Richard Eccles, Adela Alcolea-Medina, William L Hamilton, Rich Livett, Rachel Blacow, Margaret Hughes, Sarah François, Melisa Louise Fenton, Liz Ratcliffe, Verity Hill, Stephanie Hutchings, Kathryn Ann Harris, Emma Betteridge, William D. Fuller, Sophia T Girgis, Louise Berry, Gemma Clark, Nicholas M Redshaw, Richard Hopes, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Alexander J Keeley, Beth Blane, Wendy S. Barclay, Victoria Wright, Anita Lucaci, Luke R. Green, Fenella D. Halstead, Sarah Wyllie, Iraad F. Bronner, Áine O'Toole, Ravi Gupta, Leanne Kane, Clare M. McCann, Michael R Chapman, David W Eyre, Kelly Bicknell, Aileen G. Rowan, Sara Rey, Shazaad Ahmad, Diana Rajan, S Taylor, Sarah J. O'Brien, Alessandro M Carabelli, Amelia Joseph, Max Whiteley, Riaz Jannoo, Victoria Blakey, Martin D. Curran, David J. Studholme, Harmeet K Gill, Thomas R. A. Davis, Sushmita Sridhar, Clive Graham, Julian Tang, Clare Pearson, Mark Kristiansen, Miren Iturriza-Gomara, National Institute for Health Research, and UK Research and Innovation
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Delta ,Adult ,Male ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,COVID-19 Vaccines ,Vaccination Coverage ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Adolescent ,General Science & Technology ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Vaccine Efficacy ,Biology ,Young Adult ,Exponential growth ,Ethnicity ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Child ,Aged ,Family Characteristics ,Multidisciplinary ,High prevalence ,COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium11‡ ,SARS-CoV-2 ,Age Factors ,COVID-19 ,Middle Aged ,Virology ,Hospitalization ,England ,Socioeconomic Factors ,COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing ,Child, Preschool ,Female ,Self Report - Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission–1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated people [0.40% (95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%)]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.
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- 2021