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Internal combustion engine vehicles dominated road transport during the twentieth century. Nevertheless, the panorama is likely to change in the future, with electric-drive vehicle sales increasing due to technology improvement, cost reduction, infrastructure development and increasing environmental awareness. A new vehicle market model and a vehicle stock turnover model were combined to estimate the optimum composition of the 2050 new vehicle market in Japan under different scenarios; and the impact of changes in the new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet. The Base scenario is dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized; while shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO 2 emissions are prioritized. CO 2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Diffusion of lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicles has the largest CO 2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared with the 2050 baseline value; with negative cash flow after 2044. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric-drive vehicles, including hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles, are emerging as less polluting alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles. Therefore, it is important to assess their penetration in the vehicle market in the future. A ‘two-step’ approach is used to estimate the optimum market penetration of lightweight and electric-drive vehicles in the long-term and the impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet, focusing on Japan. First, an optimization model is used to estimate the vehicle market composition in 2050. Then, a vehicle stock turnover model is used to estimate light-duty vehicle fleet energy and material consumption, CO 2 emissions and cost. Internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles dominate in the Base scenario. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized. Shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO 2 emissions are prioritized. CO 2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicle diffusion has the largest CO 2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared to the 2050 baseline value; with the net cash flow peaking at 10.2 billion USD/year in 2035 and becoming negative after 2044. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric-drive and lightweight vehicles can reduce CO 2 emissions in road passenger transportation. However, maximum reductions are limited by the extent of their diffusion. A vehicle fleet stock turnover model was developed to study the impact of powertrain electrification, vehicle size reduction and lightweight materials substitution on light-duty vehicle fleet energy consumption, CO 2 emissions and cost; and used in the case of Japan. Vehicle types included internal combustion engine vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles; using two glider types, conventional and lightweight; available in three vehicle size classes, normal, compact and mini-sized vehicles. Diffusion of mini-sized lightweight battery electric vehicles has the largest potential for tank-to-wheel energy consumption and CO 2 emissions reductions, 70.6 and 92.2%, compared to the 2050 baseline values; with a net cash flow larger than zero until 2045. In contrast, diffusion of mini-sized lightweight fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles has the lowest net cash flow by 2050, with negative values from 2033 and potential tank-to-wheel energy consumption and CO 2 emissions reductions of 55.4 and 82.9% compared to the 2050 baseline values. Lightweighting reduces significantly the capital cost of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles, favoring their deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]