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Impact of new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet CO2 emissions and cost.
- Source :
- Energy Procedia; Dec2016, Vol. 105, p3862-3867, 6p
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Internal combustion engine vehicles dominated road transport during the twentieth century. Nevertheless, the panorama is likely to change in the future, with electric-drive vehicle sales increasing due to technology improvement, cost reduction, infrastructure development and increasing environmental awareness. A new vehicle market model and a vehicle stock turnover model were combined to estimate the optimum composition of the 2050 new vehicle market in Japan under different scenarios; and the impact of changes in the new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet. The Base scenario is dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized; while shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO 2 emissions are prioritized. CO 2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Diffusion of lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicles has the largest CO 2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared with the 2050 baseline value; with negative cash flow after 2044. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 18766102
- Volume :
- 105
- Database :
- Supplemental Index
- Journal :
- Energy Procedia
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 123340423
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.03.790