Impact of new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet CO2 emissions and cost.

Internal combustion engine vehicles dominated road transport during the twentieth century. Nevertheless, the panorama is likely to change in the future, with electric-drive vehicle sales increasing due to technology improvement, cost reduction, infrastructure development and increasing environmental awareness. A new vehicle market model and a vehicle stock turnover model were combined to estimate the optimum composition of the 2050 new vehicle market in Japan under different scenarios; and the impact of changes in the new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet. The Base scenario is dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized; while shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO 2 emissions are prioritized. CO 2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Diffusion of lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicles has the largest CO 2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared with the 2050 baseline value; with negative cash flow after 2044. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]