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This paper weighs possible medium-term responsible policy choices to the extraordinary expansion of government spending in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. The paper is divided into two parts. In part 1 of the paper, we look at conventional debt sustainability and question whether conventional rules created during a period of high interest rates and high inflation remain relevant. Current and future conditions support a case for government debt/GDP to remain elevated compared to history, conditional upon limited state interference in the economy to allow appropriate allocation of capital and resources. In part 2, we consider the historical experience of the United Kingdom. History shows the country had several examples of rapid, large-scale expansion of government debt relative to the size of the economy. On each occasion, the elevated level of debt-to-GDP was later reduced by a combination of relatively benign factors, including commitment to low inflation and sound monetary system. This supported the financial probity of the UK government and allowed it to continue to borrow unimpeded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on an article about the condition of British money market during 1700s. Effect of political situation on economy; Details of interest rates; Discussion on taxation.

This paper studies the equilibrium investment strategy for multi-period defined contribution (DC) pension funds under the mean-variance criterion. We assume that the financial market consists of one risk-free asset and multiple risky assets, the interest rate is stochastic and characterized by the discrete-time Ho-Lee model, and the interest rate as well as the returns of the risky assets both depend on the market states, the evolution of the market states is described by a Markov chain. We regard this problem as a non-cooperative game whose equilibrium strategy is a time-consistent strategy, and derive the analytical expressions for the equilibrium strategy, the equilibrium value function and the equilibrium efficient frontier by using the extended Bellman equation and the matrix representation technique. Finally, a numerical example based on real data from the UK market is provided to shed light on the theoretical results established in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the Gibson Paradox and the Fisher Effect for the UK during different metallic and non‐metallic regimes. The paper applies long‐span monthly data on the long‐term interest rate and the price index from 1790 to 1931. The ARDL cointegration is employed to study the long‐term relationship. Significant evidence is provided for the paradox during the uninterrupted gold standard era of the UK (1821–1914). We also find evidence of the paradox during the short‐term gold exchange standard era (1925–1931). Further results also confirm the Fisher Effect during the 1821–1914 period, providing some backing to its ability to explain the paradox. This is further asserted by the short‐run mutual influence between the rate of interest and the inflation rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we contribute to the literature by examining the determinants of net interest margin (NIM) of European and US banks in a zero lower bound situation while controlling for important institutional design factors. We analyse a large sample of annual data on 629 European banks and 526 US during the 2011–2016 period, which also covers periods of zero and negative rates in many of the observed countries. We test three hypotheses and come to three main conclusions. First, NIM is significantly influenced by the different institutional designs of capital‐based (the UK and the US) and bank‐based financial markets (continental Europe). Second, there are differences in NIM caused by bank size. Finally, we show significant differences by bank type: savings banks, real estate and mortgage banks, and cooperative banks report consistently lower NIMs than commercial banks and bank holdings. Contrary to other researchers, we observe a negative relationship between NIM and the yield curve slope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What caused the recovery from the British Great Depression? A leading explanation – the 'expectations channel' – suggests that a shift in expected inflation lowered real interest rates and stimulated consumption and investment. However, few studies have measured, or tested the economic consequences of, inflation expectations. In this paper, we collect high‐frequency information from primary and secondary sources to measure expected inflation in the United Kingdom between the wars. A high‐frequency vector autoregression suggests that inflation expectations were an important source of the early stages of economic recovery in interwar Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ a multi-factor analysis from both a firm-specific (microeconomic) and market-specific (macroeconomic) perspective to examine the determinants of credit default swap (CDS) spreads in the USA, the UK and Japan between 2005 and 2012. We investigate both aggregate (cross-country) and individual market data so that a comparative analysis can be performed. Our results reveal that (i) in general, Tobin's Q, stock market returns, and the risk-free interest rate possess significant explanatory power for CDS spreads; (ii) the relationship identified is found to exist in all three markets with varying strength; (iii) despite the added information flow, the 2007–2009 financial crisis did not shorten the persistence (adjustment speed) of CDS spreads to variations in our explanatory variables; and (iv) degree of firm leverage appears to have a significant influence on CDS spreads. These results are robust to various model specifications. Synthesizing our overall results, we maintain that to reap the benefits of using CDSs as a risk management tool, greater attention should be devoted to supporting a stable market (economic and financial) environment. This paper contributes to elucidate how firm performance and macroeconomic conditions play a significant role in explaining CDS spreads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether monetary policy pass-through to mortgage interest rates affects household fertility decisions. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in households' eligibility for a rate adjustment, coupled with the large reductions in the monetary policy rate that occurred during the Great Recession in the U.K. and U.S. We estimate that each one percentage point drop in the policy rate increased birth rates amongst households eligible for a rate adjustment by 3%. Our results provide new evidence on the nature of monetary policy transmission to households and suggest a new mechanism via which mortgage contract structures can affect both aggregate demand and supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well established in the literature the ex post risk premium is higher than the ex ante risk premium and can vary substantially, but little research has been conducted in modelling the dynamic process between the two. This paper contributes by providing a theoretical framework to model the long-term dynamic relationship between the two risk premia in the UK and US. Using an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) ex ante model, that dominates several competitive models, we reveal slow reversion toward a stable long term ex post mean of 4% in both the UK and US markets. Results extend prior research by using an extended data set (1923–2019), providing a more precise and flexible estimation model, confirming that inflation and interest rates provide additional explanatory power over the long term but significantly less so across several regime shocks, especially during high inflation and periods of negative risk premia. By highlighting potential mispricing through a flexible approach we provide financially useful information to investors and regulators, particularly when central banks are manipulating equity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse the network of exposures constructed by using the UK trade repository data for three different categories of contracts: interest rate, credit, and foreign exchange derivatives. We study how liquidity shocks related to variation margins propagate across the network and translate into payment deficiencies across different derivative markets. A key finding of the paper is that, in extreme theoretical scenarios where liquidity buffers are small, a handful of institutions may experience significant spillover effects due to the directionality of their portfolios. Additionally, we show that two novel multiplex centrality measures, the Functional Multiplex Eigenvector Centrality and the Functional Multiplex PageRank, can be used as a proxy for the vulnerability of financial institutions, with the Functional Multiplex PageRank improving on the results that can be obtained using the Functional Multiplex Eigenvector Centrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very little empirical attention has been given to the mobility constraints linked to accessibility to and upgrading within home ownership. Both are central to the operation of the housing market and can be seen within a framework of housing careers. This paper places them also in the context of changing housing market conditions and in particular the role of housing cycles. The research simulates, in purely financial terms, the behaviour of the average first-time buyers in each region of the UK over three decades. The analysis finds the accessibility mobility constraint is more psychological than financial but is also dependent on interest rates and the scale and duration of market downturns. The analysis of the upgrading constraint through housing cycles demonstrates that the ease of moving in the upturn fuels a boom but the subsequent inabilities to accumulate the capital necessary for such a move brings a long muted recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether high borrowing costs deterred investment in sanitation infrastructure in late nineteenth-century Britain. Town Councils had to borrow to fund investment, with considerable variation in interest rates across towns and over time. Panel regressions, using annual data from more than 800 town councils, indicate that higher interest rates were associated with lower levels of infrastructure investment between 1887 and 1903. Instrumental variable regressions show that falling interest rates after 1887 stimulated investment and led to lower infant mortality. These findings suggest that Parliament could have expedited mortality decline by subsidizing loans or facilitating private borrowing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we apply a rolling‐window strategy using data from the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), and Japan to determine the dynamic linear and nonlinear Granger causality relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates over time and visualize the results. Our findings from US data show an asymmetrical relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates. We find that in the overall sample period, the long‐term interest rate nonlinearly Granger‐causes the short‐term interest rate. Using the rolling‐window approach, when the start of the subsample is earlier than 2000 we find evidence that the long‐term interest rate Granger‐causes the short‐term interest rate, either linearly or nonlinearly, while in most of the subsamples the short‐term interest rate does not linearly or nonlinearly Granger‐cause the long‐term interest rate. However, for the UK and Japan, there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between short‐ and long‐term interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Writing non-negative equity guarantees (NNEGs) is the main method used to deal with the risks of equity release products in the United Kingdom. The existing empirical literature indicates the potential for contagion of interregional and international house prices, but no studies have modeled these contagion effects. This paper applies a Merton-jump-diffusion model to propose a general model to investigate the impacts of house price contagion on the valuation of NNEGs. We derive a closed-form solution for the price of NNEGs and use an analytic formula to investigate contagion effects on NNEGs efficiently. This research establishes that ignoring the contagion effects of house prices can lead to underestimating of the value of NNEGs. Treating the contagion effect is critical for valuing NNEGs, in light of the development of equity release products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fisher Effect is one of the most widely studied relationships in monetary economics. Previous studies have found little evidence of a Fisher effect in pre-World War I data for the United Kingdom. An explanation for this is the near white noise property of the inflation rate under the Classical Gold Standard. There is more evidence of a Fisher effect in the post-World War II years when the inflation rate showed more persistence. This paper studies the evidence on the Fisher effect over the time period 1844-2018. This period covers several distinct monetary regimes. The monetary regime is an important factor determining the time series behavior of the inflation rate which, in turn, has been shown to be crucial to the strength of the Fisher effect. Distinctive features of the study are the focus on the long-term interest rate and coverage of the current inflation targeting regime in the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public loan guarantee schemes have the aim of alleviating credit constraints on small businesses by providing a gilt-edged guarantee to the lender in the event of default. In return, an interest premium is levied on loans and is paid to the government over and above that charged by the lending bank. Yet public guaranteed lending also attracts additional arrangement fees for the lender. This feature of such schemes has not been well understood despite the fact that on the current UK scheme 88.8% of issued loans and credit lines attract arrangement fees that average £2,935 per lending contract (or 2.9% of total borrowing) across the portfolio. In this paper, we explore the incidence and scale of arrangement fees and how they differ across different types of small business and lending types (credit lines versus term loans) to try and understand why fees are such an important and revealing feature of loan contracting. An important finding is that fees and interest rate are negatively correlated, implying that these two pricing elements of a loan may be compensating components of a loan’s pricing structure and contract menu offered to the borrower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the interest rate pass‐through is examined within its intermediate lag of action to shed light on the credibility of monetary policy in Jordan, where the reputation of low inflation is imported through a fixed exchange rate system to the US dollar. We use time series methods which allow us to test for asymmetric adjustment. The results are compared to that of two inflation targeting countries at time proceeding building the credibility of price stability domestically: New Zealand and the UK. The empirical findings suggest that the interest rate pass‐through in Jordan is weak and slow. In addition, our results indicate the existence of non‐competitive pricing behaviour in the market. Comparing the results to the two inflation targeters, the study suggests that Jordan needs to move to a more resilient exchange rate arrangement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers a theoretical discussion of the price elasticity of supply. While there have been a number of attempts to estimate the responsiveness of UK supply, relatively little has been written on what determines it. A key omission is the effect of long-term real interest rates. Steep falls in both the annual rent to house price ratio and long real interest rates during a period of relatively static real rents in the UK suggest that the stream of future imputed rents became discounted at successively lower interest rates between 1996 and 2007. New supply responded sluggishly to price rises during this period, but then collapsed rapidly as the market turned in 2008. This paper argues that the decline in long-term real interest rates contributed to rising house prices and the inelastic supply response during the long upswing, and that cyclical asymmetries inherent in the supply response have been exacerbated by changes in the financial system and increased government regulation of the planning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been claimed that, for dynamic investment strategies, the simple act of rebalancing a portfolio can be a source of additional performance, sometimes referred to as the volatility pumping effect or the diversification bonus because volatility and diversification turn out to be key drivers of the portfolio performance. Stochastic portfolio theory suggests that the portfolio excess growth rate, defined as the difference between the portfolio expected growth rate and the weighted-average expected growth rate of the assets in the portfolio, is an important component of this additional performance (see Fernholz [Stochastic Portfolio Theory, 2002 (Springer)]). In this context, one might wonder whether maximizing a portfolio excess growth rate would lead to an improvement in the portfolio performance or risk-adjusted performance. This paper provides a thorough empirical analysis of the maximization of an equity portfolio excess growth rate in a portfolio construction context for individual stocks. In out-of-sample empirical tests conducted on individual stocks from 4 different regions (US, UK, Eurozone and Japan), we find that portfolios that maximize the excess growth rate are characterized by a strong negative exposure to the low volatility factor and a higher than 1 exposure to the market factor, implying that such portfolios are attractive alternatives to competing smart portfolios in markets where the low volatility anomaly does not hold (e.g. in the UK, or in rising interest rate scenarios) or in bull market environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the interest rate hike in the US and, more recently, in the UK, sudden stops in investments and capital reversals are apparent in the Asian emerging economies. A modelling approach is taken, using the G‐Cubed model, to simulate the potential global economic impacts, with a focus on Asia. The results demonstrate that myopic fiscal interventions in Asian emerging economies could result in short‐term stimulus, at the expense of long‐term growth. The stimulus in advanced economies too would be short‐lived, diverting the benefits to unintended fractions in the global economy. Advanced economies that minimally change their trade and investment patterns tend to avoid distortionary impacts of the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Housing markets have multiple interactions with the rest of the economy and these are surveyed in this paper. The drivers of house prices include income, the housing stock, demography, credit availability, interest rates, and lagged appreciation, the latter a potential mechanism for overshooting. There is rather less agreement on the determinants of new construction, though planning constraints are widely seen as a major issue and one of the causes of the UK housing affordability problem. The paper argues that housing collateral and downpayment constraints are the key to understanding the role of house-price variations in explaining medium-term consumption fluctuations. Institutional variations between countries and over time account for major differences in linkages between house prices and economic activity. This illuminates debates about how monetary and other policy should react to house-price variations. The paper also discusses the role of housing markets in explaining regional migration and location decisions, intergenerational inequality, and restricting access of the less affluent to public goods, such as good schools, which are capitalized in local house prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to investigate the way mortgage rates are set by lenders funded by deposits versus lenders funded in the capital markets by securitization. The paper tests the response of both types of lenders to changes in market rates using an Error Correction Model. The results obtained here show that the rates of lenders opting for securitization adjust slightly faster to changes in market rates, lowering borrower costs at times of falling interest rates; the difference in mark-up over the market rate is also lower on average for these lenders although it is not statistically significant. On the contrary, depository institutions seem to engage in more interest rate smoothing, confirming one of the distinctive characteristics of traditional bank lending, the provision of risk-sharing opportunities to borrowers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-country comparisons of average loan interest rates, often carried out using statistics provided by national and international authorities, should be accompanied by strong caveats. If underlying compositional differences in loans, borrowers or lenders are unaccounted for, claims of over/under-pricing may be unfounded. In this paper, we propose a simple methodology that compares interest rates between countries after controlling for such differences. We apply our method to loan-level data from three Irish banks lending to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in both Ireland and the UK. We find that controlling for such factors reduces the the cross-country interest rate premium significantly. We attribute any remaining interest rate "gap" to overall lending market conditions – for example, to differences in the recoverability of collateral, the level of competition among banks, the aggregate perception of risk, or banks' expectations on the relative movements in policy rates and exchange rates between the UK and the euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between interest rates, inflation and economic growth using a long dataset for the UK. The approach adopted enables us to identify structural breaks in the dynamic system (vector autoregression (VAR)). We find interest rates respond much more strongly to growth and inflation over recent decades, and forecast error variance decomposition analysis indicates there is increasing interconnectedness between the variables in recent years. Economic policymakers need to carefully monitor the linkages between these variables and be prepared to adjust their monetary policy tools when faced with structural changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the United Kingdom, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural changes in the labour market and favourable supply shocks may have had a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in explaining inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in constructing Taylor-type policy rules for the interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results of recent studies for the USA, Canada and Australia have suggested that the term structure of interest rates contains predictive power for real GDP growth, and that this result is robust to the inclusion of additional variables, such as stock market indicators and lagged growth rates. Using a k-quarter growth rate model this paper attempts to ascertain whether similar results are obtained for the UK. In short, the results suggested here state that although the interest rate spread between the 10-year governemt bond and the 3-month T-bill contains some predictive power for UK output growth, it is less than reported for other countries. Finally, this result is robust to the inclusion of lagged growth and the FT-ALL index return, the latter leading to a marginal improvement in predictive power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines contrasting experiences of the United Kingdom in addressing high public debt to GDP ratios following major wars. A clear message is that interest rate / growth rate differentials were more important than primary budget surpluses for the different outcomes. The debt to GDP ratio fell very rapidly under financial repression following the Second World War but remained stubbornly high despite large budget surpluses with price deflation after the First World War. Implications for policymakers today are that averting price deflation is a high priority and that supply-side policies that raise growth could play an important part in debt reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As robot numbers in the home increase, creating a market for second-hand robotic systems is essential to reduce the waste impact of the industry. Via a survey, consumer attitudes of United Kingdom participants towards secondhand robots were investigated; finding that second-hand robots with guarantees have an equal purchasing interest compared to new systems, highlighting the opportunity for manufacturers and retailers to develop certification standards for second-hand robots to move towards a circular economy. Consumer demographics also demonstrated that those most open to the purchase of both new and second-hand systems were women, those aged 18-25 years old, and those who have previously owned a robot for the home. Participants' prior ownership of second-hand electronic devices (such as phones and laptops) did not affect rates of interest for second-hand robotic systems suggesting that the technology is still too new for people to be able to project their experience of current second-hand electronics to that of a robot. Additionally, this research found the robotics industry can consider the potential market for second-hand robots to be more similar to the second-hand smartphone market than to the household electronics market, and lessons learnt from the concerns raised by consumers for other internet-enabled electronic devices are similar to those concerns for second-hand robots. This provides an opportunity for the industry to break down the barriers for a circular economy earlier in the technology maturity process than has been seen for other electronics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the dynamic relationship between short term interest rates and inflation is analyzed for five countries (U.S.A., UK, France, Germany and Switzerland), covering the period 1974-1980. The framework of analysis is the bivariate autoregressive representation of the interest and the inflation rate, which allows to test the traditional approach (interest rate as distributed lag of inflation) as well as the novel approach of Fama (the inflation rate as function of the one period lagged interest rate). In general, the hypotheses of both approaches are rejected by the data. An analysis of the variability of the real interest rate suggests that it contributes strongly to the variation of the nominal interest rate and that the nominal interest rate and inflation help to predict the ex ante real interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of interest rate changes on the common stock returns of portfolios of financial institutions in the UK. The five groups of financial institutions examined are banks, insurance companies, investment trusts, property investment companies and finance firms. In addition, a wide sample of nonfinancial firms is considered for comparison purposes. A two-index model is employed to test the effect of both current and unanticipated interest rate changes. An element of volatility in market yields is also introduced in a three-index model to measure the effect of variability in interest rates on the returns of these financial intermediaries. Two main implications emerge from the present paper for both financial and nonfinancial firms. First, a significant negative relationship seems to exist between the common stock returns and the changes in interest rates. Second, common stock returns and variability of interest rates are related with a significant positive coefficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates which factors determine the expected real long-term interest rates of the G7-countries as a whole within a single equation error correction model. Inflationary expectations are generated using the low frequency component of inflation provided by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A comparison of the calculated expected inflation rates with those resulting from index-linked and conventional UK bonds suggests this approach to be appropriate. Expected real long-term interest rates turn out to be influenced positively by real short-term interest rates, capacity utilization and structural public borrowing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to consider the sources of finance used to support major capital expenditure in the UK Higher Education sector and to reflect on any differences between traditional corporate finance theory and practice in the UK university sector. Utilising both HESA data returns and published annual accounts, an in-depth analysis using a logit structure is carried out on data from the top 63 UK universities over the period 2014-2017, to establish the range of funding sources adopted for major capital projects, all set within the context of the UK macro environment and a period of low interest rates. The research also carries out a survey of funders to understand the decision criteria used by lenders active in the Higher Education sector and a survey of university finance directors to determine the use of the funds, the reasons behind past lending decisions and to ascertain likely future demand for finance to fund major capital projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Financial banking intermediaries are sensitive to changes in market interest rates. The volatility of market interest rates affects the level of bank net interest income and determines the bank interest rate policy. Banks are actively managing structural interest rate risks to mitigate the negative effects of changes in market interest rates. The post-crisis period is characterised by unconventional monetary policy, and one of the basic objectives of the monetary instrument is a negative interest rate policy. This paper researches the effects on the bank net interest income structure with an impact on bank performance indicators. The basic research hypothesis is that during the financial crisis and a negative interest rate policy, the movement of bank interest income does not converge compared to a bank interest expense. Methodology: According to the characteristics of the dataset, which includes 32 listed banks from Great Britain, Switzerland and the European Union for the period 2002-2019, panel data analysis is applied. To analyse the effect of the interest rate level on total interest income and total interest expense, we formed two models. Fixed-effects models were used for parameter estimation. Results: A bank interest expense is more sensitive to unconventional macroeconomic policy than bank interest income. Conclusion: The traditional interest earning customer related business can enable banks to stabilise the bank performance indicator during market disruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper extends a popular no-arbitrage affine term structure model to jointly model bond markets and exchange rates across the UK, USA and euro area. Using a monthly data set of forward rates from 1992, we first demonstrate that two global factors account for a significant proportion in the variation of bond yields across countries. We also show that, for an explanation of country-specific movements in yield curves, local factors are required. Although we implement a very general factor structure, we find that our global factors are related to global inflation and global economic activity, whereas local factors are closely linked to monetary policy rates. In this respect, our results are similar to previous work. But an important advantage of our joint international model is that we are able to decompose interest rates into risk-free rates and risk premia. Additionally, we are able to study the implications for exchange rates. We show that whereas differences in risk-free rates matter, to a large extent, changes in the exchange rate are determined by time-varying exchange rate risk premia. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on how the movement from cash to card use can be demonstrated to have persuaded many consumers to spend more than they earn and more than they can afford. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines if investors exhibited evidence of the availability heuristic in their investment decisions when significant price changes occurred in the British stock market during the 2010–2018 period. We raise the hypothesis that if a significant stock price move takes place on a day when the stock market index also undergoes a significant change (either positive or negative), then the magnitude of that shock may be increased by the availability of positive investment or negative outcomes. We applied three different proxies for large stock price changes which yielded a robust sample of events for this study. We found no significant evidence of the availability heuristic. In addition, we also found no significant evidence of price overreaction for both price decreases and increases. Inversely, we found robust results that suggest randomness in the behavior of stock prices in this period, thus supporting the efficiency of financial markets and opposing the results from similar studies carried out in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Banks in major industrialized economies have struggled to keep inflation within their target ranges since the global financial crisis. The periods of missing inflation and deflation experienced in the post-crisis era have led to doubts about the traditional Fisher effect as a crucial component of the policy reaction function. We explore the NeoFisherian theory, which suggests an alternative causal relationship between the policy rate and inflation. We focus on the USA, UK, and EU and apply wavelet coherence analysis to examine the time–frequency lead–lag comovements on data spanning from January 2007 to March 2023. Our findings indicate increasing NeoFisherian dynamics, notably post-2013 taper tantrum, implying that Central Banks in industrialized economies have misunderstood monetary policy dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers 'unconventional' monetary stimulus and supply-side reform as ways to speed up UK recovery in the context of fiscal consolidation, drawing on the experience of the 1930s and 1980s. To imitate the 1930s, the inflation-targeting regime may need to be reformed to cut real interest rates, with land-use planning liberalised to 'crowd in' residential investment. To emulate the 1980s, supply-side reforms to improve productivity and to raise permanent income are required and possibilities in the areas of infrastructure, education and taxation are outlined. A problem common to all these options is that they are 'politically challenging'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach – This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings – With big issues and crises, there is usually a moment when the dam breaks and the waters flood through. But these are not necessarily remarkable moments. As an Economist magazine examination into the LIBOR (London inter-bank offered rate) scandal says, they can actually be rather banal.Practical implications – The paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world's leading organizations.Originality/value – The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to digest format. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of continuing mixed results in the literature, this paper re-examines the German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) and considers whether the UK should join the Eurozone. For this purpose, short-term interest rate relationships between the UK, Germany, the Eurozone and the USA, for the period January 1982 to June 2007, are studied. The policy implication of a loss of monetary autonomy for the UK in favour of Germany or the European Central Bank (ECB) would give support to the UK joining the EMU as an economic response. From the early 1980s the Bundesbank's responsibility was to use money growth targets to keep average inflation rate down in the long run. This long run objective suggests that an appropriate methodology for testing the GDH is to test whether the German stochastic trend is a driving stochastic trend. In other words we determine whether a permanent shock to the German interest rate has a permanent effect on the UK interest rate. To this end the structural shocks in a VECM are identified by imposing long-run restrictions of the type developed in King et al. (1991). We apply the same techniques to testing whether the UK has suffered a loss of monetary autonomy in favour of the ECB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies show that the credit card market is imperfectly competitive. Using a reduced form hedonic model, the current paper demonstrates a relationship between credit card interest rates and product differentiation characteristics. The characteristics capture issuers' attempts to: (1) screen/separate customers with different default risk characteristics and (2) better meet heterogeneous customer preferences. The results are consistent with risk-based pricing and monopolistic competition in the credit card market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the impact of regulatory intervention on store card interest rates, for a panel of UK store cards. Panel data estimation methods are used in conjunction with intervention analysis so that the impact of the investigations on store card interest rates can be examined. Results suggest that there is a significant negative impact on store card interest rates. The impact of macroeconomic factors and credit card interest rates on store card interest rates are also taken into account, results indicating that store cards and credit cards should be considered as competing sources of credit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policy changes in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expected changes in the UK and German/Euro area policy rates on the UK and German aggregate and sectoral equity returns in an event study. The decomposition of (un)expected changes in policy rates is based on futures markets. Overall, our results suggest that, the UK monetary policy surprises have a significant negative influence on both aggregate and industry level returns in both countries. The influence of German/Euro area monetary policy shocks appears insignificant for both Germany and the UK. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper finds empirical support for a Taylor (1993) type interest rate determination rule. The model is solved analytically, estimated and used for simulation, impulse response analyses and forecasting with quarterly time series data for the UK and annual time series data for Germany, France, Japan, the UK and the US. The results confirm that such rules implicitly exists during the period of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]