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Vaccination of healthcare workers against influenza is a crucial strategy to reduce transmission amongst vulnerable populations, facilitate patient uptake of vaccination, and bolster pandemic preparedness. Globally, vaccination coverage of health workers varied from 10 % to 88 %. Understanding health workers' knowledge and acceptance of the influenza vaccine, particularly among physicians, is crucial for the fine-tuning and continued success of influenza vaccination campaigns. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 472 health workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, to inform subsequent subnational and national introductions of influenza vaccine and subsequent campaigns targeting health workers in 2019 (14302), 2020 (14872), and 2021 (24473). Using a purposive sample of university hospitals, general hospitals, rural, and urban health facilities, we interviewed a convenience sample of health workers aged 18 years and older. Physicians had the lowest intention to receive the influenza vaccine (58 %), while nurses (78 %) and midwives (76 %) were the most willing. Across all occupations, intention to receive vaccination increased if the vaccine was offered for free or if recommended by the Ministry of Health. 76 % of respondents believed that the influenza vaccine could prevent illness in health workers. Communication strategies, including about the benefits of influenza vaccination, could raise awareness and acceptance among health workers prior to vaccination campaigns. Influenza vaccination coverage rates between 2019 and 2021 were on par with rates of intention to receive vaccination in the 2018 survey; in 2019, 2020, and 2021, coverage among physicians was 73 %, 73 %, and 52 % and coverage among nurses and midwives was 86 %, 86 %, and 74 % respectively. Improving health workers' knowledge and acceptance of the influenza vaccine, particularly among physicians, is crucial for the continued success of influenza vaccination campaigns., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Daouda Coulibaly reports financial support was provided by The Task Force for Global Health. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Alfred Douba reports financial support was provided by The Task Force for Global Health. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

BackgroundHealthcare personnel (HCP) are at high risk for respiratory infections through occupational exposure to respiratory viruses.AimWe used data from a prospective influenza vaccine effectiveness study in HCP to quantify the incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and their associated presenteeism and absenteeism.MethodsAt the start and end of each season, HCP at two Israeli hospitals provided serum to screen for antibodies to influenza virus using the haemagglutination inhibition assay. During the season, active monitoring for the development of ARI symptoms was conducted twice a week by RT-PCR testing of nasal swabs for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Workplace presenteeism and absenteeism were documented. We calculated incidences of influenza- and RSV-associated ARI and applied sampling weights to make estimates representative of the source population.ResultsThe median age of 2,505 participating HCP was 41 years, and 70% were female. Incidence was 9.1 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 5.8-14.2) for RT-PCR-confirmed influenza and 2.5 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 0.9-7.1) for RSV illness. Each season, 18-23% of unvaccinated and influenza-negative HCP seroconverted. The incidence of seroconversion or RT-PCR-confirmed influenza was 27.5 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 17.8-42.5). Work during illness occurred in 92% (95% CI: 91-93) of ARI episodes, absence from work in 38% (95% CI: 36-40).ConclusionInfluenza virus and RSV infections and associated presenteeism and absenteeism were common among HCP. Improving vaccination uptake among HCP, infection control, and encouraging sick HCP to stay home are important strategies to reduce ARI incidence and decrease the risk of in-hospital transmission.

Bhutan successfully introduced multiple vaccines since the establishment of the Vaccine Preventable Disease Program in 1979. Surveillance and subsequent introduction of influenza vaccination became a public health priority for the Ministry of Health following the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Sentinel surveillance for influenza in Bhutan began in 2008, and a study of severe acute respiratory infection was conducted in 2017, which found the highest influenza burden in children aged <5 years and adults ≥50 years. Following review of surveillance and burden of disease data, the National Technical Advisory Group presented recommendations to Bhutan's Ministry of Health which approved influenza vaccine introduction for all five high-risk groups in the country. Upon the official launch of the program in June 2018, the Vaccine Preventable Disease Program began planning, budgeting, and procurement processes with technical and financial support from the Partnership for Influenza Vaccine Introduction, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Bhutan Health Trust Fund, and the World Health Organization. Influenza vaccination for high-risk groups was integrated into Bhutan's routine immunization services in all health care facilities beginning in November 2019 and vaccinated all populations in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Coverage levels between 2019 and 2022 were highest in children aged 6-24 months (62.5%-96.9%) and lowest in pregnant women (47.7%-62.5%). Bhutan maintained high coverage levels despite the COVID-19 pandemic by continued provision of influenza vaccine services at health centers during lockdowns, conducting communication and sensitization efforts, and using catch-up campaigns. Bhutan's experience with introducing and scaling up the influenza vaccine program contributed to the country's capacity to rapidly deploy its COVID-19 vaccination program in 2021., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models. Research teams from Columbia University, Imperial College London/Princeton University, Northeastern University, the University of Texas at Austin/Yale University, and the University of Virginia independently modeled three prescribed sets of pandemic influenza scenarios developed collaboratively by the CDC and network members. Results provided by the groups were aggregated into a mean-based ensemble. The ensemble and most component models agreed on the ranking of the most and least effective intervention strategies by impact but not on the magnitude of those impacts. In the scenarios evaluated, vaccination alone, due to the time needed for development, approval, and deployment, would not be expected to substantially reduce the numbers of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths that would occur. Only strategies that included early implementation of school closure were found to substantially mitigate early spread and allow time for vaccines to be developed and administered, especially under a highly transmissible pandemic scenario.

Data collected through routine syndromic surveillance for influenza-like illness in the Micronesian United States-affiliated Pacific Islands highlighted out-of-season influenza outbreaks in the spring of 2019. This report describes the data collected through the World Health Organization's Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Compared with historical data, more cases of influenza-like illness were observed in all four islands described here, with the highest number reported in Guam in week 9, CNMI and FSM in week 15, and RMI in week 19. The outbreaks predominantly affected those aged < 20 years, with evidence from CNMI and RMI suggesting higher attack rates among those who were unvaccinated. Cases confirmed by laboratory testing suggested that influenza B was predominant, with 83% (99/120) of subtyped specimens classified as influenza B/Victoria during January-May 2019. These outbreaks occurred after the usual influenza season and were consistent with transmission patterns in Eastern Asia rather than those in Oceania or the United States of America, the areas typically associated with the United States-affiliated Pacific Islands due to their geographical proximity to Oceania and political affiliation with the United States of America. A plausible epidemiological route of introduction may be the high levels of international tourism from Eastern Asian countries recorded during these periods of increased influenza B/Victoria circulation. This report demonstrates the value of year-round surveillance for communicable diseases and underscores the importance of seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly among younger age groups., ((c) 2021 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

Objective: Estimates of the burden of influenza are needed to inform prevention and control activities for seasonal influenza, including to support the development of appropriate vaccination policies. We used sentinel surveillance data on severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) to estimate the burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the Lao People's Democratic Republic., Methods: Using methods developed by the World Health Organization, we combined data from hospital logbook reviews with epidemiological and virological data from influenza surveillance from 1 January to 31 December 2016 in defined catchment areas for two sentinel sites (Champasack and Luang Prabang provincial hospitals) to derive population-based estimates of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates. Hospitalization rates by age group were then applied to national age-specific population estimates using 2015 census data., Results: We estimated the overall influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rate to be 48/100 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44-51) or 3097 admissions (95% CI: 2881-3313). SARI hospitalization rates were estimated to be as low as 40/100 000 population (95% CI: 37-43) and as high as 92/100 000 population (95% CI: 87-98) after accounting for SARI patient underascertainment in hospital logbooks. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates were highest in children aged < 5 years (219; 95% CI: 198-241) and persons aged 3  65 years (106; 95% CI: 91-121)., Discussion: Our findings have identified age groups at higher risk for influenza-associated SARI hospitalization, which will support policy decisions for influenza prevention and control strategies, including for vaccination. Further work is needed to estimate the burdens of outpatient influenza and influenza in specific high-risk subpopulations., ((c) 2021 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

Background: Global influenza virus circulation decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly due to widespread community mitigation measures. Cambodia eased some COVID-19 mitigation measures in June and July 2020. On 20 August a cluster of respiratory illnesses occurred among residents of a pagoda, including people who tested positive for influenza A but none who were positive for SARS-CoV-2., Methods: A response team was deployed on 25 August 2020. People with influenza-like illness (ILI) were asked questions regarding demographics, illness, personal prevention measures, and residential arrangements. Respiratory swabs were tested for influenza and SARS-Cov-2 by real-time reverse transcription PCR, and viruses were sequenced. Sentinel surveillance data were analyzed to assess recent trends in influenza circulation in the community., Results: Influenza A (H3N2) viruses were identified during sentinel surveillance in Cambodia in July 2020 prior to the reported pagoda outbreak. Among the 362 pagoda residents, 73 (20.2%) ILI cases were identified and 40 were tested, where 33/40 (82.5%) confirmed positive for influenza A (H3N2). All 40 were negative for SARS-CoV-2. Among the 73 residents with ILI, none were vaccinated against influenza, 47 (64%) clustered in 3/8 sleeping quarters, 20 (27%) reported often wearing a mask, 27 (36%) reported often washing hands, and 11 (15%) reported practicing social distancing. All viruses clustered within clade 3c2.A1 close to strains circulating in Australia in 2020., Conclusions: Circulation of influenza viruses began in the community following the relaxation of national COVID-19 mitigation measures, and prior to the outbreak in a pagoda with limited social distancing. Continued surveillance and influenza vaccination are required to limit the impact of influenza globally., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: The World Health Organization identifies pregnant women as at high-risk for severe influenza, but influenza vaccines are underutilized among pregnant women. Data on influenza burden during pregnancy are largely limited to high-income countries and data on the impact of influenza on birth and perinatal outcomes are scarce., Methods/design: This prospective, longitudinal cohort study of pregnant women in middle-income countries is designed to address three primary objectives: 1) to evaluate the effect of laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy on pregnancy and perinatal outcomes; 2) to estimate the incidences of all-cause acute respiratory illness and laboratory-confirmed influenza during pregnancy; and 3) to examine the clinical spectrum of illness associated with influenza viruses. Through a multi-country network approach, three sites aim to enroll cohorts of 1500-3000 pregnant women just before local influenza seasons. Women aged ≥ 18 years with expected delivery dates ≥ 8 weeks after the start of the influenza season are eligible. Women are followed throughout pregnancy through twice weekly surveillance for influenza symptoms (≥ 1 of myalgia, cough, runny nose, sore throat, or difficulty breathing) and have mid-turbinate nasal swabs collected for influenza virus testing during illness episodes. Primary outcomes include relative risk of preterm birth and mean birth weight among term singleton infants of women with and without reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza during pregnancy. Gestational age is determined by ultrasound at < 28 weeks gestation and birth weight is measured by digital scales using standardized methods. Sites are primarily urban in Bangkok, Thailand; Lima, Peru; and Nagpur, India. All sites recruit from antenatal clinics at referral hospitals and conduct surveillance using telephone calls, messaging applications, or home visits. Nasal swabs are self-collected by participants in Thailand and by study staff in Peru and India. During the first year (2017), sites enrolled participants during March-May in Peru and May-July in India and Thailand; 4779 women were enrolled., Discussion: This study aims to generate evidence of the impact of influenza during pregnancy to inform decisions by Ministries of Health, healthcare providers, and pregnant women in middle-income countries about the value of influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

The formulation of accurate clinical case definitions is an integral part of an effective process of public health surveillance. Although such definitions should, ideally, be based on a standardized and fixed collection of defining criteria, they often require revision to reflect new knowledge of the condition involved and improvements in diagnostic testing. Optimal case definitions also need to have a balance of sensitivity and specificity that reflects their intended use. After the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) initiated a technical consultation on global influenza surveillance. This prompted improvements in the sensitivity and specificity of the case definition for influenza - i.e. a respiratory disease that lacks uniquely defining symptomology. The revision process not only modified the definition of influenza-like illness, to include a simplified list of the criteria shown to be most predictive of influenza infection, but also clarified the language used for the definition, to enhance interpretability. To capture severe cases of influenza that required hospitalization, a new case definition was also developed for severe acute respiratory infection in all age groups. The new definitions have been found to capture more cases without compromising specificity. Despite the challenge still posed in the clinical separation of influenza from other respiratory infections, the global use of the new WHO case definitions should help determine global trends in the characteristics and transmission of influenza viruses and the associated disease burden.

Background: Understanding the burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is important for setting national influenza surveillance and vaccine priorities. Estimating influenza-associated SARI rates requires hospital-based surveillance data and a population-based denominator, which can be challenging to determine., Objectives: We present an application of the World Health Organization's recently developed manual (WHO Manual) including hospital admission survey (HAS) methods for estimating the burden of influenza-associated SARI, with lessons learned to help others calculate similar estimates., Methods: Using an existing SARI surveillance platform in Cambodia, we counted influenza-associated SARI cases during 2015 at one sentinel surveillance site in Svay Rieng Province. We applied WHO Manual-derived methods to count respiratory hospitalizations at all hospitals within the catchment area, where 95% of the sentinel site case-patients resided. We used HAS methods to adjust the district-level population denominator for the sentinel site and calculated the incidence rate of influenza-associated SARI by dividing the number of influenza-positive SARI infections by the adjusted population denominator and multiplying by 100 000. We extrapolated the rate to the provincial population to derive a case count for 2015. We evaluated data sources, detailed steps of implementation, and identified lessons learned., Results: We estimated an adjusted influenza-associated 2015 SARI rate of 13.5/100 000 persons for the catchment area of Svay Rieng Hospital and 77 influenza-associated SARI cases in Svay Rieng Province after extrapolation., Conclusions: Methods detailed in the WHO Manual and operationalized successfully in Cambodia can be used in other settings to estimate rates of influenza-associated SARI., (© 2018 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Data about influenza mortality burden in northern China are limited. This study estimated mortality burden in Beijing associated with seasonal influenza from 2007 to 2013 and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic., Methods: We estimated influenza-associated excess mortality by fitting a negative binomial model using weekly mortality data as the outcome of interest with the percent of influenza-positive samples by type/subtype as predictor variables., Results: From 2007 to 2013, an average of 2375 (CI 1002-8688) deaths was attributed to influenza per season, accounting for 3% of all deaths. Overall, 81% of the deaths attributed to influenza occurred in adults aged ≥65 years, and the influenza-associated mortality rate in this age group was higher than the rate among those aged <65 years (113.6 [CI 49.5-397.4] versus 4.4 [CI 1.7-18.6] per 100 000, P < .05). The mortality rate associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in 2009/2010 was comparable to that of seasonal influenza during the seasonal years (19.9 [CI 10.4-33.1] vs 17.2 [CI 7.2-67.5] per 100 000). People aged <65 years represented a greater proportion of all deaths during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic period than during the seasonal epidemics (27.0% vs 17.7%, P < .05)., Conclusions: Influenza is an important contributor to mortality in Beijing, especially among those aged ≥65 years. These results support current policies to give priority to older adults for seasonal influenza vaccination and help to define the populations at highest risk for death that could be targeted for pandemic influenza vaccination., (© 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: To establish seasonal and alert thresholds and transmission intensity categories for influenza to provide timely triggers for preventive measures or upscaling control measures in Cambodia., Methods: Using Cambodia's influenza-like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data from 2009 to 2015, three parameters were assessed to monitor influenza activity: the proportion of ILI patients among all outpatients, proportion of ILI samples positive for influenza and the product of the two. With these parameters, four threshold levels (seasonal, moderate, high and alert) were established and transmission intensity was categorized based on a World Health Organization alignment method. Parameters were compared against their respective thresholds., Results: Distinct seasonality was observed using the two parameters that incorporated laboratory data. Thresholds established using the composite parameter, combining syndromic and laboratory data, had the least number of false alarms in declaring season onset and were most useful in monitoring intensity. Unlike in temperate regions, the syndromic parameter was less useful in monitoring influenza activity or for setting thresholds., Conclusion: Influenza thresholds based on appropriate parameters have the potential to provide timely triggers for public health measures in a tropical country where monitoring and assessing influenza activity has been challenging. Based on these findings, the Ministry of Health plans to raise general awareness regarding influenza among the medical community and the general public. Our findings have important implications for countries in the tropics/subtropics and in resource-limited settings, and categorized transmission intensity can be used to assess severity of potential pandemic influenza as well as seasonal influenza.

Background: The first human infections of novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were identified in China in March 2013. Sentinel surveillance systems and contact tracing may not identify mild and asymptomatic human infections of influenza A(H7N9) virus., Objectives: We assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies to influenza A(H7N9) virus in three populations during the early stages of the epidemic., Patients/methods: From March 2013 to May 2014, we collected sera from the general population, poultry workers, and contacts of confirmed infections in nine Chinese provinces reporting human A(H7N9) infections and, for contacts, second sera 2-3 weeks later. We screened for A(H7N9) antibodies by advanced hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and tested sera with HI titers ≥20 by modified microneutralization (MN) assay. MN titers ≥20 or fourfold increases in paired sera were considered seropositive., Results: Among general population sera (n=1480), none were seropositive. Among poultry worker sera (n=1866), 28 had HI titers ≥20; two (0.11%, 95% CI: 0.02-0.44) were positive by MN. Among 61 healthcare and 117 non-healthcare contacts' sera, five had HI titers ≥20, and all were negative by MN. There was no seroconversion among 131 paired sera., Conclusions: There was no evidence of widespread transmission of influenza A(H7N9) virus during March 2013 to May 2014, although A(H7N9) may have caused rare, previously unrecognized infections among poultry workers. Although the findings suggest that there were few undetected cases of influenza A(H7N9) early in the epidemic, it is important to continue monitoring transmission as virus and epidemic evolve., (© 2016 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: To identify the general public's perceptions of the overall risk communication strategy carried out by Chinese public health agencies during the first wave of avian influenza A(H7N9) outbreak in humans in 2013., Methods: Participants were recruited from communities in Beijing, Lanzhou and Hangzhou, China in May and June 2013 by convenience sampling. Demographics and other relevant information were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Focus group interviews were conducted using a set of nine pre-developed questions and a tested moderator guide. The interviews were audio recorded and were transcribed verbatim. The constant comparative method was used to identify trends and themes., Results: A total of nine focus group interviews, with 94 participants recruited from nine communities, were conducted. Most participants received H7N9 information via television and the Internet. Most the participants appreciated the transparency and timeliness of the information released by the government. They expressed a sense of trust in the recommended public health advice and followed most of them. The participants suggested that the government release more information about clinical treatment outcomes, have more specific health recommendations that are practical to their settings and expand the use of new media channels for risk communication., Conclusion: The public perceived the overall risk communication strategy by the Chinese public health agencies as effective, though the moderator had a governmental agency title that might have biased the results. There is a need to expand the use of social media for risk communication in the future.

Applying qualitative historical methods, we examined the consideration and implementation of school closures as a nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) in thirty US cities during the spring 2009 wave of the pA(H1N1) influenza pandemic. We gathered and performed close textual readings of official federal, state, and municipal government documents; media coverage; and academic publications. Lastly, we conducted oral history interviews with public health and education officials in our selected cities. We found that several local health departments pursued school closure plans independent of CDC guidance, that uncertainty of action and the rapidly evolving understanding of pA(H1N1) contributed to tension and pushback from the public, that the media and public perception played a significant role in the response to school closure decisions, and that there were some notable instances of interdepartmental communication breakdown. We conclude that health departments should continue to develop and fine-tune their action plans while also working to develop better communication methods with the public, and work more closely with education officials to better understand the complexities involved in closing schools. Lastly, state and local governments should work to resolve lingering issues of legal authority for school closures in times of public health crises., (Copyright © 2016 by Duke University Press.)

WHO, FAO and OIE developed a 'four-way linking' framework to enhance the cross-sectoral sharing of epidemiological and virological information in responding to zoonotic disease outbreaks. In Indonesia, outbreak response challenges include completeness of data shared between human and animal health authorities. The four-way linking framework (human health laboratory/epidemiology and animal health laboratory/epidemiology) was applied in the investigation of the 193 rd human case of avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection. As recommended by the framework, outbreak investigation and risk assessment findings were shared. On 18 June 2013, a hospital in West Java Province reported a suspect H5N1 case in a 2-year-old male. The case was laboratory-confirmed that evening, and the information was immediately shared with the Ministry of Agriculture. The human health epidemiology/laboratory team investigated the outbreak and conducted an initial risk assessment on 19 June. The likelihood of secondary cases was deemed low as none of the case contacts were sick. By 3 July, no secondary cases associated with the outbreak were identified. The animal health epidemiology/laboratory investigation was conducted on 19-25 June and found that a live bird market visited by the case was positive for H5N1 virus. Once both human and market virus isolates were sequenced, a second risk assessment was conducted jointly by the human health and animal health epidemiology/laboratory teams. This assessment concluded that the likelihood of additional human cases associated with this outbreak was low but that future sporadic human infections could not be ruled out because of challenges in controlling H5N1 virus contamination in markets. Findings from the outbreak investigation and risk assessments were shared with stakeholders at both Ministries. The four-way linking framework clarified the type of data to be shared. Both human health and animal health teams made ample data available, and there was cooperation to achieve risk assessment objectives., (© 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

The Lao PDR, as did most countries of the Mekong Region, embarked on a pandemic vaccine initiative to counter the threat posed by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Overall, estimated vaccine coverage of the Lao population was 14%, with uptake in targeted health care workers and pregnant women 99% and 41%, respectively. Adverse Events Following Immunization accounted for only 6% of survey driven, reported vaccination experiences, with no severe consequences or deaths. Public acceptability of the vaccine campaign was high (98%). Challenges to vaccine deployment included: 1) no previous experience in fielding a seasonal influenza vaccine, 2) safety and efficacy concerns, and 3) late arrival of vaccine 10 months into the pandemic. The Lao success in surmounting these hurdles was in large measure attributed to the oversight assigned the National Immunization Program, and national sensitivities in responding to the avian influenza A(H5N1) crisis in the years leading up to the pandemic. The Lao "lessons learned" from pandemic vaccine deployment are made even more relevant four years on, given the many avian influenza strains circulating in the region, all with pandemic potential.

Introduction: Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths., Methods: Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009-2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population., Results: We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45-64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2-34.3) compared to 1-4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1-7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2-7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5-11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1-31.3) and adults aged 45-64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4-12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0-27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals., Conclusion: Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.

Background: There is limited data on the epidemiology of influenza and few published estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Africa. In April 2009, a new influenza virus strain infecting humans was identified and rapidly spread globally. We compared the characteristics of patients ill with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to those ill with seasonal influenza and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness during five influenza seasons (2005-2009) in South Africa., Methods: Epidemiological data and throat and/or nasal swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) at sentinel sites. Samples were tested for seasonal influenza viruses using culture, haemagglutination inhibition tests and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by real-time PCR. For the vaccine effectiveness (VE) analysis we considered patients testing positive for influenza A and/or B as cases and those testing negative for influenza as controls. Age-adjusted VE was calculated as 1-odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals., Results: From 2005 through 2009 we identified 3,717 influenza case-patients. The median age was significantly lower among patients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus than those with seasonal influenza, 17 and 27 years respectively (p<0.001). The vaccine coverage during the influenza season ranged from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2006 and was higher in the ≥50 years (range 6.9% in 2008 to 13.2% in 2006) than in the <50 years age group (range 2.2% in 2007 to 3.7% in 2006). The age-adjusted VE estimates for seasonal influenza were 48.6% (4.9%, 73.2%); -14.2% (-9.7%, 34.8%); 12.0% (-70.4%, 55.4%); 67.4% (12.4%, 90.3%) and 29.6% (-21.5%, 60.1%) from 2005 to 2009 respectively. For the A(H1N1)pdm09 season, the efficacy of seasonal vaccine was -6.4% (-93.5%, 43.3%)., Conclusion: Influenza vaccine demonstrated a significant protective effect in two of the five years evaluated. Low vaccine coverage may have reduced power to estimate vaccine effectiveness.

Background: Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in older adults may be biased because of difficulties identifying and adjusting for confounders of the vaccine-outcome association. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for prevention of serious influenza complications among older persons by using methods to account for underlying differences in risk for these complications., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Ontario residents aged ≥ 65 years from September 1993 through September 2008. We linked weekly vaccination, hospitalization, and death records for 1.4 million community-dwelling persons aged ≥ 65 years. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated by comparing ratios of outcome rates during weeks of high versus low influenza activity (defined by viral surveillance data) among vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects by using log-linear regression models that accounted for temperature and time trends with natural spline functions. Effectiveness was estimated for three influenza-associated outcomes: all-cause deaths, deaths occurring within 30 days of pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations., Results: During weeks when 5% of respiratory specimens tested positive for influenza A, vaccine effectiveness among persons aged ≥ 65 years was 22% (95% confidence interval [CI], -6%-42%) for all influenza-associated deaths, 25% (95% CI, 13%-37%) for deaths occurring within 30 days after an influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalization, and 19% (95% CI, 4%-31%) for influenza-associated pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations. Because small proportions of deaths, deaths after pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations, and pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations were associated with influenza virus circulation, we estimated that vaccination prevented 1.6%, 4.8%, and 4.1% of these outcomes, respectively., Conclusions: By using confounding-reducing techniques with 15 years of provincial-level data including vaccination and health outcomes, we estimated that influenza vaccination prevented ~4% of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths occurring after hospitalizations among older adults in Ontario.