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The high economic impact and zoonotic potential of avian influenza call for detailed investigations of dispersal dynamics of epidemics. We integrated phylogeographic and epidemiologic analyses to investigate the dynamics of a low pathogenicity avian influenza (H3N1) epidemic that occurred in Belgium during 2019. Virus genomes from 104 clinical samples originating from 85% of affected farms were sequenced. A spatially explicit phylogeographic analysis confirmed a dominating northeast to southwest dispersal direction and a long-distance dispersal event linked to direct live animal transportation between farms. Spatiotemporal clustering, transport, and social contacts strongly correlated with the phylogeographic pattern of the epidemic. We detected only a limited association between wind direction and direction of viral lineage dispersal. Our results highlight the multifactorial nature of avian influenza epidemics and illustrate the use of genomic analyses of virus dispersal to complement epidemiologic and environmental data, improve knowledge of avian influenza epidemiologic dynamics, and enhance control strategies. ispartof: EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES vol:29 issue:2 pages:351-359 ispartof: location:United States status: published

The Americas, particularly Brazil, were greatly impacted by the widespread Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015 and 2016. Efforts were made to implement genomic surveillance of ZIKV as part of the public health responses. The accuracy of spatiotemporal reconstructions of the epidemic spread relies on the unbiased sampling of the transmission process. In the early stages of the outbreak, we recruited patients exhibiting clinical symptoms of arbovirus-like infection from Salvador and Campo Formoso, Bahia, in Northeast Brazil. Between May 2015 and June 2016, we identified 21 cases of acute ZIKV infection and subsequently recovered 14 near full-length sequences using the amplicon tiling multiplex approach with nanopore sequencing. We performed a time-calibrated discrete phylogeographic analysis to trace the spread and migration history of the ZIKV. Our phylogenetic analysis supports a consistent relationship between ZIKV migration from Northeast to Southeast Brazil and its subsequent dissemination beyond Brazil. Additionally, our analysis provides insights into the migration of ZIKV from Brazil to Haiti and the role Brazil played in the spread of ZIKV to other countries, such as Singapore, the USA, and the Dominican Republic. The data generated by this study enhances our understanding of ZIKV dynamics and supports the existing knowledge, which can aid in future surveillance efforts against the virus. ispartof: VIRUSES-BASEL vol:15 issue:6 ispartof: location:Switzerland status: published

Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused millions of infections and fatalities globally since its emergence in late 2019. The virus was first detected in Finland in January 2020, after which it rapidly spread among the populace in spring. However, compared to other European nations, Finland has had a low incidence of SARS-CoV-2. To gain insight into the origins and turnover of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in Finland in 2020, we investigated the phylogeographic and -dynamic history of the virus. Methods The origins of SARS-CoV-2 introductions were inferred via Travel-aware Bayesian time-measured phylogeographic analyses. Sequences for the analyses included virus genomes belonging to the B.1 lineage and with the D614G mutation from countries of likely origin, which were determined utilizing Google mobility data. We collected all available sequences from spring and fall peaks to study lineage dynamics. Results We observed rapid turnover among Finnish lineages during this period. Clade 20C became the most prevalent among sequenced cases and was replaced by other strains in fall 2020. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions suggested 42 independent introductions into Finland during spring 2020, mainly from Italy, Austria, and Spain. Conclusions A single introduction from Spain might have seeded one-third of cases in Finland during spring in 2020. The investigations of the original introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to Finland during the early stages of the pandemic and of the subsequent lineage dynamics could be utilized to assess the role of transboundary movements and the effects of early intervention and public health measures.

This article belongs to the Special Issue Virus Bioinformatics 2022. This Special Issue is published alongside the International Virus Bioinformatics Meeting 2022 (ViBioM 2022) taking place in spring 2022 in Valencia, Spain., The International Virus Bioinformatics Meeting 2022 took place online, on 23-25 March 2022, and has attracted about 380 participants from all over the world. The goal of the meeting was to provide a meaningful and interactive scientific environment to promote discussion and collaboration and to inspire and suggest new research directions and questions. The participants created a highly interactive scientific environment even without physical face-to-face interactions. This meeting is a focal point to gain an insight into the state-of-the-art of the virus bioinformatics research landscape and to interact with researchers in the forefront as well as aspiring young scientists. The meeting featured eight invited and 18 contributed talks in eight sessions on three days, as well as 52 posters, which were presented during three virtual poster sessions. The main topics were: SARS-CoV-2, viral emergence and surveillance, virus-host interactions, viral sequence analysis, virus identification and annotation, phages, and viral diversity. This report summarizes the main research findings and highlights presented at the meeting., This research was funded by CSIC grant number CSIC-COV19-014, MCIU grant number PID2020-113888RB-I00, ISCIII grant number PI21/00139, and institutional grants to CBMSO from Fundación Ramón Areces and Banco Santander. D.B. (Denis Beslic) and K.K. were supported by the European Centers for Disease Control (grant number ECDC GRANT/2021/008 ECD.12222). D.B. (Dimitri Boeckaerts) was supported by the Research Foundation—Flanders (‘Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen’, 1S69520N). E.G.T. was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (grant numbers BB/T015616, BB/T016256). E.B.H was funded by Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) grant number 31CA30 196046. D.J. is supported for his research on Fecal microbiota transplants in ulcerative colitis patients by the ‘Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek’ (Research foundation Flanders (1S78021N). A.L. was supported by the National Science Foundation award #1951678 and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation award GBMF9871. G.L.L. was funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Innovative Training Networks grant agreement number 955974 (VIROINF). P.L. was supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 grant agreement number 725422-ReservoirDOCS, by Wellcome Trust project 206298/Z/17/Z (Artic Network), by the Research Foundation—Flanders (‘Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek—Vlaanderen’, G0D5117N and G051322N) and by NIH grant R01AI153044. L.N. was supported by the JSPS KAKENHI grant number JP 18H05506 and 21J22509. M.R. was funded by Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes and DigLeben (Digitalisierung der Lebenswissenschaften—Wege in die Zukunft). F.W. was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG; German Research Foundation) SFB 1021 (project number 197785619).

More than any other infectious disease epidemic, the COVID-19 pandemic has been characterized by the generation of large volumes of viral genomic data at an incredible pace due to recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies, the rapid global spread of SARS-CoV-2, and its persistent threat to public health. However, distinguishing the most epidemiologically relevant information encoded in these vast amounts of data requires substantial effort across the research and public health communities. Studies of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been critical in tracking the spread of variants and understanding its epidemic dynamics, and may prove crucial for controlling future epidemics and alleviating significant public health burdens. Together, genomic data and bioinformatics methods enable broad-scale investigations of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 at the local, national, and global scales and allow researchers the ability to efficiently track the emergence of novel variants, reconstruct epidemic dynamics, and provide important insights into drug and vaccine development and disease control. Here, we discuss the tremendous opportunities that genomics offers to unlock the effective use of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data for efficient public health surveillance and guiding timely responses to COVID-19.

Respiratory syncytial virus is the second most common cause of infant mortality and a major cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults (aged >60 years). Efforts to develop a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine or immunoprophylaxis remain highly active. 33 respiratory syncytial virus prevention candidates are in clinical development using six different approaches: recombinant vector, subunit, particle-based, live attenuated, chimeric, and nucleic acid vaccines; and monoclonal antibodies. Nine candidates are in phase 3 clinical trials. Understanding the epitopes targeted by highly neutralising antibodies has resulted in a shift from empirical to rational and structure-based vaccine and monoclonal antibody design. An extended half-life monoclonal antibody for all infants is likely to be within 1 year of regulatory approval ( from August, 2022) for high-income countries. Live-attenuated vaccines are in development for older infants (aged >6 months). Subunit vaccines are in late-stage trials for pregnant women to protect infants, whereas vector, subunit, and nucleic acid approaches are being developed for older adults. Urgent next steps include ensuring access and affordability of a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine globally. This review gives an overview of respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies in clinical development highlighting different target populations, antigens, and trial results.

The ongoing SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)-CoV (coronavirus)-2 pandemic has exposed major gaps in our knowledge on the origin, ecology, evolution, and spread of animal coronaviruses. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a member of the genus Alphacoronavirus in the family Coronaviridae that may have originated from bats and leads to significant hazards and widespread epidemics in the swine population. The role of local and global trade of live swine and swine-related products in disseminating PEDV remains unclear, especially in developing countries with complex swine production systems. Here, we undertake an in-depth phylogeographic analysis of PEDV sequence data (including 247 newly sequenced samples) and employ an extension of this inference framework that enables formally testing the contribution of a range of predictor variables to the geographic spread of PEDV. Within China, the provinces of Guangdong and Henan were identified as primary hubs for the spread of PEDV, for which we estimate live swine trade to play a very important role. On a global scale, the United States and China maintain the highest number of PEDV lineages. We estimate that, after an initial introduction out of China, the United States acted as an important source of PEDV introductions into Japan, Korea, China, and Mexico. Live swine trade also explains the dispersal of PEDV on a global scale. Given the increasingly global trade of live swine, our findings have important implications for designing prevention and containment measures to combat a wide range of livestock coronaviruses. ispartof: MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION vol:39 issue:2 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Big Bayes is the computationally intensive co-application of big data and large, expressive Bayesian models for the analysis of complex phenomena in scientific inference and statistical learning. Standing as an example, Bayesian multidimensional scaling (MDS) can help scientists learn viral trajectories through space-time, but its computational burden prevents its wider use. Crucial MDS model calculations scale quadratically in the number of observations. We partially mitigate this limitation through massive parallelization using multi-core central processing units, instruction-level vectorization and graphics processing units (GPUs). Fitting the MDS model using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, GPUs can deliver more than 100-fold speedups over serial calculations and thus extend Bayesian MDS to a big data setting. To illustrate, we employ Bayesian MDS to infer the rate at which different seasonal influenza virus subtypes use worldwide air traffic to spread around the globe. We examine 5392 viral sequences and their associated 14 million pairwise distances arising from the number of commercial airline seats per year between viral sampling locations. To adjust for shared evolutionary history of the viruses, we implement a phylogenetic extension to the MDS model and learn that subtype H3N2 spreads most effectively, consistent with its epidemic success relative to other seasonal influenza subtypes. Finally, we provide MassiveMDS, an open-source, stand-alone C++ library and rudimentary R package, and discuss program design and high-level implementation with an emphasis on important aspects of computing architecture that become relevant at scale.

During 2015-2016, Cape Verde, an island nation off the coast of West Africa, experienced a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak involving 7,580 suspected Zika cases and 18 microcephaly cases. Analysis of the complete genomes of 3 ZIKV isolates from the outbreak indicated the strain was of the Asian (not African) lineage. The Cape Verde ZIKV sequences formed a distinct monophylogenetic group and possessed 1-2 (T659A, I756V) unique amino acid changes in the envelope protein. Phylogeographic and serologic evidence support earlier introduction of this lineage into Cape Verde, possibly from northeast Brazil, between June 2014 and August 2015, suggesting cryptic circulation of the virus before the initial wave of cases were detected in October 2015. These findings underscore the utility of genomic-scale epidemiology for outbreak investigations. ispartof: EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES vol:26 issue:6 pages:1084-1090 ispartof: location:United States status: published

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the deadliest respiratory pandemic of the 20th century and determined the genomic make-up of subsequent human influenza A viruses (IAV). Here, we analyze both the first 1918 IAV genomes from Europe and the first from samples prior to the autumn peak. 1918 IAV genomic diversity is consistent with a combination of local transmission and long-distance dispersal events. Comparison of genomes before and during the pandemic peak shows variation at two sites in the nucleoprotein gene associated with resistance to host antiviral response, pointing at a possible adaptation of 1918 IAV to humans. Finally, local molecular clock modeling suggests a pure pandemic descent of seasonal H1N1 IAV as an alternative to the hypothesis of origination through an intrasubtype reassortment. ispartof: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS vol:13 issue:1 ispartof: location:England status: published

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium strain ATCC14028s is commercially available from multiple national type culture collections, and has been widely used since 1960 for quality control of growth media and experiments on fitness (“laboratory evolution”). ATCC14028s has been implicated in multiple cross-contaminations in the laboratory, and has also caused multiple laboratory infections and one known attempt at bioterrorism. According to hierarchical clustering of 3002 core gene sequences, ATCC14028s belongs to HierCC cluster HC20_373 in which most internal branch lengths are only one to three SNPs long. Many natural Typhimurium isolates from humans, domesticated animals and the environment also belong to HC20_373, and their core genomes are almost indistinguishable from those of laboratory strains. These natural isolates have infected humans in Ireland and Taiwan for decades, and are common in the British Isles as well as the Americas. The isolation history of some of the natural isolates confirms the conclusion that they do not represent recent contamination by the laboratory strain, and 10% carry plasmids or bacteriophages which have been acquired in nature by HGT from unrelated bacteria. We propose that ATCC14028s has repeatedly escaped from the laboratory environment into nature via laboratory accidents or infections, but the escaped micro-lineages have only a limited life span. As a result, there is a genetic gap separating HC20_373 from its closest natural relatives due to a divergence between them in the late 19th century followed by repeated extinction events of escaped HC20_373., Author summary Clades of closely related bacteria exist in nature. Individual isolates from such clades are often distinguishable by genomic sequencing because genomic sequence differences can be acquired over a few years due to neutral drift and natural selection. The evolution of laboratory strains is often largely frozen, physically due to storage conditions and genetically due to long periods of storage. Thus, laboratory strains can normally be readily distinguished from natural isolates because they show much less diversity. However, laboratory strain ATCC14028s shows modest levels of sequence diversity because it has been shipped around the world to multiple laboratories and is routinely used for analyses of laboratory evolution. Closely related natural isolates also exist, but their genetic diversity is not dramatically greater at the core genome level. Indeed, many scientists doubt that such isolates are natural, and interpret them as undetected contamination by the laboratory strain. We present data indicating that ATCC14028s has repeatedly escaped from the laboratory through inadvertent contamination of the environment, infection of technical staff and deliberate bioterrorism. The escapees survive in nature long enough that some acquire mobile genomic elements by horizontal gene transfer, but eventually they go extinct. As a result, even extensive global databases of natural isolates lack closely related isolates whose ancestors diverged from ATCC14028s within the last 100 years.

Recent years have witnessed the discovery of several new viruses belonging to the family Arteriviridae, expanding the known diversity and host range of this group of complex RNA viruses. Although the pathological relevance of these new viruses is not always clear, several well-studied members of the family Arteriviridae are known to be important animal pathogens. Here, we report the complete genome sequences of four new arterivirus variants, belonging to two putative novel species. These new arteriviruses were discovered in African rodents and were given the names Lopma virus and Praja virus. Their genomes follow the characteristic genome organization of all known arteriviruses, even though they are only distantly related to currently known rodent-borne arteriviruses. Phylogenetic analysis shows that Lopma virus clusters in the subfamily Variarterivirinae, while Praja virus clusters near members of the subfamily Heroarterivirinae: the yet undescribed forest pouched giant rat arterivirus and hedgehog arterivirus 1. A co-divergence analysis of rodent-borne arteriviruses confirms that they share similar phylogenetic patterns with their hosts, with only very few cases of host shifting events throughout their evolutionary history. Overall, the genomes described here and their unique clustering with other arteriviruses further illustrate the existence of multiple rodent-borne arterivirus lineages, expanding our knowledge of the evolutionary origin of these viruses. ispartof: VIRUSES-BASEL vol:13 issue:9 ispartof: location:Switzerland status: published

After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden. ispartof: NATURE vol:595 issue:7869 pages:713-+ ispartof: location:England status: published

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major health problem. A better understanding of the geographical and temporal dynamics of RSV circulation will assist in tracking resistance against therapeutics currently under development. Since 2015, the field of RSV molecular epidemiology has evolved rapidly with around 20-30 published articles per year. The objective of this systematic review is to identify knowledge gaps in recent RSV genetic literature to guide global molecular epidemiology research. We included 78 studies published between 2015 and 2020 describing 12,998 RSV sequences of which 8,233 (63%) have been uploaded to GenBank. Seventeen (22%) studies were performed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and seven (9%) studies sequenced whole-genomes. Although most reported polymorphisms for monoclonal antibodies in clinical development (nirsevimab, MK-1654) have not been tested for resistance in neutralisation essays, known resistance was detected at low levels for the nirsevimab and palivizumab binding site. High resistance was found for the suptavumab binding site. We present the first literature review of an enormous amount of RSV genetic data. The need for global monitoring of RSV molecular epidemiology becomes increasingly important in evaluating the effectiveness of monoclonal antibody candidates as they reach their final stages of clinical development. We have identified the following three knowledge gaps: whole-genome data to study global RSV evolution, data from LMICs and data from global surveillance programs. ispartof: REVIEWS IN MEDICAL VIROLOGY vol:32 issue:3 ispartof: location:England status: published

Here, we identified a novel class of compounds which demonstrated good antiviral activity against dengue and Zika virus infection. These derivatives constitute intermediates in the synthesis of indole (ervatamine-silicine) alkaloids and share a tetracyclic structure, with an indole and a piperidine fused to a seven-membered carbocyclic ring. Structure-activity relationship studies indicated the importance of substituent at position C-6 and especially the presence of a benzyl ester for the activity and cytotoxicity of the molecules. In addition, the stereochemistry at C-7 and C-8, as well as the presence of an oxazolidine ring, influenced the potency of the compounds. Mechanism of action studies with two analogues of this family (compounds 22 and trans-14) showed that this class of molecules can suppress viral infection during the later stages of the replication cycle (RNA replication/assembly). Moreover, a cell-dependent antiviral profile of the compounds against several Zika strains was observed, possibly implying the involvement of a cellular factor(s) in the activity of the molecules. Sequencing of compound-resistant Zika mutants revealed a single nonsynonymous amino acid mutation (aspartic acid to histidine) at the beginning of the predicted transmembrane domain 1 of NS4B protein, which plays a vital role in the formation of the viral replication complex. To conclude, our study provides detailed information on a new class of NS4B-associated inhibitors and strengthens the importance of identifying host-virus interactions in order to tackle flavivirus infections. ispartof: ANTIMICROBIAL AGENTS AND CHEMOTHERAPY vol:65 issue:8 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Background The transmission patterns and genetic diversity of dengue virus (DENV) circulating in Africa remain poorly understood. Circulation of the DENV serotype 1 (DENV1) in Angola was detected in 2013, while DENV serotype 2 (DENV2) was detected in 2018. Here, we report results from molecular and genomic investigations conducted at the Ministry of Health national reference laboratory (INIS) in Angola on suspected dengue cases detected between January 2017 and February 2019. Methods A total of 401 serum samples from dengue suspected cases were collected in 13 of the 18 provinces in Angola. Of those, 351 samples had complete data for demographic and epidemiological analysis, including age, gender, province, type of residence, clinical symptoms, as well as dates of onset of symptoms and sample collection. RNA was extracted from residual samples and tested for DENV-RNA using two distinct real time RT-PCR protocols. On-site whole genome nanopore sequencing was performed on RT-PCR+ samples. Bayesian coalescent models were used to estimate date and origin of outbreak emergence, as well as population growth rates. Results Molecular screening showed that 66 out of 351 (19%) suspected cases were DENV-RNA positive across 5 provinces in Angola. DENV RT-PCR+ cases were detected more frequently in urban sites compared to rural sites. Of the DENV RT-PCR+ cases most were collected within 6 days of symptom onset. 93% of infections were confirmed by serotype-specific RT-PCR as DENV2 and 1 case (1.4%) was confirmed as DENV1. Six CHIKV RT-PCR+ cases were also detected during the study period, including 1 co-infection of CHIKV with DENV1. Most cases (87%) were detected in Luanda during the rainy season between April and October. Symptoms associated with severe dengue were observed in 11 patients, including 2 with a fatal outcome. On-site nanopore genome sequencing followed by genetic analysis revealed an introduction of DENV2 Cosmopolitan genotype (also known as DENV2-II genotype) possibly from India in or around October 2015, at least 1 year before its detection in the country. Coalescent models suggest relatively moderately rapid epidemic growth rates and doubling times, and a moderate expansion of DENV2 in Angola during the studied period. Conclusion This study describes genomic, epidemiological and demographic characteristic of predominately urban transmission of DENV2 in Angola. We also find co-circulation of DENV2 with DENV1 and CHIKV and report several RT-PCR confirmed severe dengue cases in the country. Increasing dengue awareness in healthcare professional, expanding the monitorization of arboviral epidemics across the country, identifying most common mosquito breeding sites in urban settings, implementing innovative vector control interventions and dengue vaccination campaigns could help to reduce vector presence and DENV transmission in Angola.

By infecting mice with the yellow fever virus vaccine strain 17D (YFV-17D; Stamaril®), the dose dependence and evolutionary consequences of neurotropic yellow fever infection was assessed. Highly susceptible AG129 mice were used to allow for a maximal/unlimited expansion of the viral populations. Infected mice uniformly developed neurotropic disease; the virus was isolated from their brains, plaque purified and sequenced. Viral RNA populations were overall rather homogenous [Shannon entropies 0-0.15]. The remaining, yet limited intra-host population diversity (0-11 nucleotide exchanges per genome) appeared to be a consequence of pre-existing clonal heterogeneities (quasispecies) of Stamaril®. In parallel, mice were infected with a molecular clone of YFV-17D which was in vivo launched from a plasmid. Such plasmid-launched YFV-17D had a further reduced and almost clonal evolution. The limited intra-host evolution during unrestricted expansion in a highly susceptible host is relevant for vaccine and drug development against flaviviruses in general. Firstly, a propensity for limited evolution even upon infection with a (very) low inoculum suggests that fractional dosing as implemented in current YF-outbreak control may pose only a limited risk of reversion to pathogenic vaccine-derived virus variants. Secondly, it also largely lowers the chance of antigenic drift and development of resistance to antivirals. ispartof: Emerg Microbes Infect vol:8 issue:1 pages:1734-1746 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Virus host shifts are generally associated with novel adaptations to exploit the cells of the new host species optimally. Surprisingly, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has apparently required little to no significant adaptation to humans since the start of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to October 2020. Here we assess the types of natural selection taking place in Sarbecoviruses in horseshoe bats versus the early SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans. While there is moderate evidence of diversifying positive selection in SARS-CoV-2 in humans, it is limited to the early phase of the pandemic, and purifying selection is much weaker in SARS-CoV-2 than in related bat Sarbecoviruses. In contrast, our analysis detects evidence for significant positive episodic diversifying selection acting at the base of the bat virus lineage SARS-CoV-2 emerged from, accompanied by an adaptive depletion in CpG composition presumed to be linked to the action of antiviral mechanisms in these ancestral bat hosts. The closest bat virus to SARS-CoV-2, RmYN02 (sharing an ancestor about 1976), is a recombinant with a structure that includes differential CpG content in Spike; clear evidence of coinfection and evolution in bats without involvement of other species. While an undiscovered “facilitating” intermediate species cannot be discounted, collectively, our results support the progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 being capable of efficient human–human transmission as a consequence of its adaptive evolutionary history in bats, not humans, which created a relatively generalist virus., A study of the natural origins of SARS-CoV-2 reveals very little adaptive evolution occurring since it emerged in humans, but strong evolutionary signals in the bat virus lineage from which SARS-CoV-2 arose. Evolution in bats involved lineage-specific depletion of CpG nucleotides (linked to host anti-viral molecules), and clear evidence of recombination across these lineages, supporting bat host species’ influence on the ancestral viruses.

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including travel history data yields i) more realistic hypotheses of virus spread and ii) higher posterior predictive accuracy compared to including only sampling location. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts., Spatiotemporal sampling gaps in existing pathogen genomic data limits their use in understanding epidemiological patterns. Here, the authors apply a phylogeographic approach with SARS-CoV-2 genomes to accurately reproduce pathogen spread by accounting for spatial biases and travel history of the individual.

Calculation of the log-likelihood stands as the computational bottleneck for many statistical phylogenetic algorithms. Even worse is its gradient evaluation, often used to target regions of high probability. Order O(N)-dimensional gradient calculations based on the standard pruning algorithm require O(N2) operations, where N is the number of sampled molecular sequences. With the advent of high-throughput sequencing, recent phylogenetic studies have analyzed hundreds to thousands of sequences, with an apparent trend toward even larger data sets as a result of advancing technology. Such large-scale analyses challenge phylogenetic reconstruction by requiring inference on larger sets of process parameters to model the increasing data heterogeneity. To make these analyses tractable, we present a linear-time algorithm for O(N)-dimensional gradient evaluation and apply it to general continuous-time Markov processes of sequence substitution on a phylogenetic tree without a need to assume either stationarity or reversibility. We apply this approach to learn the branch-specific evolutionary rates of three pathogenic viruses: West Nile virus, Dengue virus, and Lassa virus. Our proposed algorithm significantly improves inference efficiency with a 126- to 234-fold increase in maximum-likelihood optimization and a 16- to 33-fold computational performance increase in a Bayesian framework. ispartof: MOLECULAR BIOLOGY AND EVOLUTION vol:37 issue:10 pages:3047-3060 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe., One sentence summary: Sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the US several weeks later than previously estimated.

Reconstructing pathogen dynamics from genetic data as they become available during an outbreak or epidemic represents an important statistical scenario in which observations arrive sequentially in time and one is interested in performing inference in an 'online' fashion. Widely-used Bayesian phylogenetic inference packages are not set up for this purpose, generally requiring one to recompute trees and evolutionary model parameters de novo when new data arrive. To accommodate increasing data flow in a Bayesian phylogenetic framework, we introduce a methodology to efficiently update the posterior distribution with newly available genetic data. Our procedure is implemented in the BEAST 1.10 software package, and relies on a distance-based measure to insert new taxa into the current estimate of the phylogeny and imputes plausible values for new model parameters to accommodate growing dimensionality. This augmentation creates informed starting values and re-uses optimally tuned transition kernels for posterior exploration of growing data sets, reducing the time necessary to converge to target posterior distributions. We apply our framework to data from the recent West African Ebola virus epidemic and demonstrate a considerable reduction in time required to obtain posterior estimates at different time points of the outbreak. Beyond epidemic monitoring, this framework easily finds other applications within the phylogenetics community, where changes in the data -- in terms of alignment changes, sequence addition or removal -- present common scenarios that can benefit from online inference., 20 pages, 3 figures

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown once again that coronavirus (CoV) in animals are potential sources for epidemics in humans. Porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) is an emerging enteropathogen of swine with a worldwide distribution. Here, we implemented and described an approach to analyze the epidemiology of PDCoV following its emergence in the pig population. We performed an integrated analysis of full genome sequence data from 21 newly sequenced viruses, along with comprehensive epidemiological surveillance data collected globally over the last 15 years. We found four distinct phylogenetic lineages of PDCoV, which differ in their geographic circulation patterns. Interestingly, we identified more frequent intra- and interlineage recombination and higher virus genetic diversity in the Chinese lineages compared with the USA lineage where pigs are raised in different farming systems and ecological environments. Most recombination breakpoints are located in the ORF1ab gene rather than in genes encoding structural proteins. We also identified five amino acids under positive selection in the spike protein suggesting a role for adaptive evolution. According to structural mapping, three positively selected sites are located in the N-terminal domain of the S1 subunit, which is the most likely involved in binding to a carbohydrate receptor, whereas the other two are located in or near the fusion peptide of the S2 subunit and thus might affect membrane fusion. Finally, our phylogeographic investigations highlighted notable South-North transmission as well as frequent long-distance dispersal events in China that could implicate human-mediated transmission. Our findings provide new insights into the evolution and dispersal of PDCoV that contribute to our understanding of the critical factors involved in CoVs emergence., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

For pathogens infecting single host species evolutionary trade-offs have previously been demonstrated between pathogen-induced mortality rates and transmission rates. It remains unclear, however, how such trade-offs impact sub-lethal pathogen-inflicted damage, and whether these trade-offs even occur in broad host-range pathogens. Here, we examine changes over the past 110 years in symptoms induced in maize by the broad host-range pathogen, maize streak virus (MSV). Specifically, we use the quantified symptom intensities of cloned MSV isolates in differentially resistant maize genotypes to phylogenetically infer ancestral symptom intensities and check for phylogenetic signal associated with these symptom intensities. We show that whereas symptoms reflecting harm to the host have remained constant or decreased, there has been an increase in how extensively MSV colonizes the cells upon which transmission vectors feed. This demonstrates an evolutionary trade-off between amounts of pathogen-inflicted harm and how effectively viruses position themselves within plants to enable onward transmission., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Infections with HIV-1 group M subtype B viruses account for the majority of the HIV epidemic in the Western world. Phylogeographic studies have placed the introduction of subtype B in the United States in New York around 1970, where it grew into a major source of spread. Currently, it is estimated that over one million people are living with HIV in the US and that most are infected with subtype B variants. Here, we aim to identify the drivers of HIV-1 subtype B dispersal in the United States by analyzing a collection of 23,588 pol sequences, collected for drug resistance testing from 45 states during 2004–2011. To this end, we introduce a workflow to reduce this large collection of data to more computationally-manageable sample sizes and apply the BEAST framework to test which covariates associate with the spread of HIV-1 across state borders. Our results show that we are able to consistently identify certain predictors of spread under reasonable run times across datasets of up to 10,000 sequences. However, the general lack of phylogenetic structure and the high uncertainty associated with HIV trees make it difficult to interpret the epidemiological relevance of the drivers of spread we are able to identify. While the workflow we present here could be applied to other virus datasets of a similar scale, the characteristic star-like shape of HIV-1 phylogenies poses a serious obstacle to reconstructing a detailed evolutionary and spatial history for HIV-1 subtype B in the US., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Background Validated biomarkers to evaluate HIV-1 cure strategies are currently lacking, therefore requiring analytical treatment interruption (ATI) in study participants. Little is known about the safety of ATI and its long-term impact on patient health. Objectives ATI safety was assessed and potential biomarkers predicting viral rebound were evaluated. Methods PBMCs, plasma and CSF were collected from 11 HIV-1-positive individuals at four different timepoints during ATI (NCT02641756). Total and integrated HIV-1 DNA, cell-associated (CA) HIV-1 RNA transcripts and restriction factor (RF) expression were measured by PCR-based assays. Markers of neuroinflammation and neuronal injury [neurofilament light chain (NFL) and YKL-40 protein] were measured in CSF. Additionally, neopterin, tryptophan and kynurenine were measured, both in plasma and CSF, as markers of immune activation. Results Total HIV-1 DNA, integrated HIV-1 DNA and CA viral RNA transcripts did not differ pre- and post-ATI. Similarly, no significant NFL or YKL-40 increases in CSF were observed between baseline and viral rebound. Furthermore, markers of immune activation did not increase during ATI. Interestingly, the RFs SLFN11 and APOBEC3G increased after ATI before viral rebound. Similarly, Tat-Rev transcripts were increased preceding viral rebound after interruption. Conclusions ATI did not increase viral reservoir size and it did not reveal signs of increased neuronal injury or inflammation, suggesting that these well-monitored ATIs are safe. Elevation of Tat-Rev transcription and induced expression of the RFs SLFN11 and APOBEC3G after ATI, prior to viral rebound, indicates that these factors could be used as potential biomarkers predicting viral rebound.

Genetic analyses have provided important insights into Ebola virus spread during the recent West African outbreak, but their implications for specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using a collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show that long-distance dispersal events were not crucial for epidemic expansion and that preventing viral lineage movement to any given administrative area would, in most cases, have had little impact. However, major urban areas were critical in attracting and disseminating the virus: preventing viral lineage movement to all three capitals simultaneously would have contained epidemic size to one-third. We also show that announcements of border closures were followed by a significant but transient effect on international virus dispersal. By quantifying the hypothetical impact of different intervention strategies, as well as the impact of barriers on dispersal frequency, our study illustrates how phylodynamic analyses can help to address specific epidemiological and outbreak control questions., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The independent emergence late in 2020 of the B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 lineages of SARS-CoV-2 prompted renewed concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus to overcome public health interventions and rising population immunity. Here, by examining patterns of synonymous and non-synonymous mutations that have accumulated in SARS-CoV-2 genomes since the pandemic began, we find that the emergence of these three "501Y lineages" coincided with a major global shift in the selective forces acting on various SARS-CoV-2 genes. Following their emergence, the adaptive evolution of 501Y lineage viruses has involved repeated selectively favored convergent mutations at 35 genome sites, mutations we refer to as the 501Y meta-signature. The ongoing convergence of viruses in many other lineages on this meta-signature suggests that it includes multiple mutation combinations capable of promoting the persistence of diverse SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the face of mounting host immune recognition.

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) resulted in an extraordinary global public health crisis. In early 2020, Cyprus, among other European countries, was affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and adopted lockdown measures in March 2020 to limit the initial outbreak on the island. In this study, we performed a comprehensive retrospective molecular epidemiological analysis (genetic, phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses) of SARS-CoV-2 isolates in Cyprus from April 2020 to January 2021, covering the first ten months of the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic on the island. The primary aim of this study was to assess the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Cyprus. Whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences were generated from 596 clinical samples (nasopharyngeal swabs) obtained from community-based diagnostic testing centers and hospitalized patients. The phylogenetic analyses revealed a total of 34 different lineages in Cyprus, with B.1.258, B.1.1.29, B.1.177, B.1.2, B.1 and B.1.1.7 (designated a Variant of Concern 202012/01, VOC) being the most prevalent lineages on the island during the study period. Phylodynamic analysis showed a highly dynamic epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with three consecutive surges characterized by specific lineages (B.1.1.29 from April to June 2020, B.1.258 from September 2020 to January 2021, and B.1.1.7 from December 2020 to January 2021). Genetic analysis of whole SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences of the aforementioned lineages revealed the presence of mutations within the S protein (L18F, ΔH69/V70, S898F, ΔY144, S162G, A222V, N439K, N501Y, A570D, D614G, P681H, S982A and D1118H) that confer higher transmissibility and/or antibody escape (immune evasion) upon the virus. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the majority of imports and exports were to and from the United Kingdom (UK), although many other regions/countries were identified (southeastern Asia, southern Europe, eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Chile, the USA, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Finland, Switzerland and Pakistan). Taken together, these findings demonstrate that the SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemic in Cyprus is being maintained by a continuous influx of lineages from many countries, resulting in the establishment of an ever-evolving and polyphyletic virus on the island.

In winter 2016-17, highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) and A(H5N5) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 were identified in wild and domestic birds in Italy. We report the occurrence of multiple introductions and describe the identification in Europe of 2 novel genotypes, generated through multiple reassortment events. ispartof: Emerging Infectious Diseases vol:23 issue:9 pages:1543-1547 ispartof: location:United States status: published

To trace the evolution of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) virus in West Africa, we sequenced genomes of 43 viruses collected during 2015 from poultry and wild birds in 5 countries. We found 2 co-circulating genetic groups within clade 2.3.2.1c. Mutations that may increase adaptation to mammals raise concern over possible risk for humans.

[Background] Reducing the burden of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) requires large-scale deployment of intervention programmes, which can be informed by the dynamic pattern of HCV spread. In Spain, ongoing transmission of HCV is mostly fuelled by people who inject drugs (PWID) infected with subtype 1a (HCV1a)., [Aim] Our aim was to map how infections spread within and between populations, which could help formulate more effective intervention programmes to halt the HCV1a epidemic in Spain., [Methods] Epidemiological links between HCV1a viruses from a convenience sample of 283 patients in Spain, mostly PWID, collected between 2014 and 2016, and 1,317, 1,291 and 1,009 samples collected abroad between 1989 and 2016 were reconstructed using sequences covering the NS3, NS5A and NS5B genes. To efficiently do so, fast maximum likelihood-based tree estimation was coupled to a flexible Bayesian discrete phylogeographic inference method., [Results] The transmission network structure of the Spanish HCV1a epidemic was shaped by continuous seeding of HCV1a into Spain, almost exclusively from North America and European countries. The latter became increasingly relevant and have dominated in recent times. Export from Spain to other countries in Europe was also strongly supported, although Spain was a net sink for European HCV1a lineages. Spatial reconstructions showed that the epidemic in Spain is diffuse, without large, dominant within-country networks., [Conclusion] To boost the effectiveness of local intervention efforts, concerted supra-national strategies to control HCV1a transmission are needed, with a strong focus on the most important drivers of ongoing transmission, i.e. PWID and other high-risk populations., Bram Vrancken is a postdoctoral research fellow funded by the Research Foundation Flanders - Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen (FWO, Flanders, Belgium). Part of this research was sponsored by FWO grants G.0E84.16N, G.0B23.17N, G.0662.15N, G.0D51.17N and G.0B93.17N. Funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 725422-ReservoirDOCS) has been used for this study. A part of the computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the Hercules Foundation and the Flemish Government - department EWI-FWO Krediet aan Navorsers (Theys, KAN2012 1.2.249.12). This work was supported in part by grants from Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria (www.isciii.es) (PI15/00713), Plan Nacional de I+D+I and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional-FEDER (www.red.es/redes/inicio) (RD16/0025/0040), Fundación Progreso y salud, Junta de Andalucía (www.fps2.junta-andalucia.es/fundacionprogresoysalud/es/home) (PI-0411-2014), and GEHEP-SEIMC (GEHEP-004 and GEHEP-005).

Emerging viruses have the potential to impose substantial mortality, morbidity and economic burdens on human populations. Tracking the spread of infectious diseases to assist in their control has traditionally relied on the analysis of case data gathered as the outbreak proceeds. Here, we describe how many of the key questions in infectious disease epidemiology, from the initial detection and characterization of outbreak viruses, to transmission chain tracking and outbreak mapping, can now be much more accurately addressed using recent advances in virus sequencing and phylogenetics. We highlight the utility of this approach with the hypothetical outbreak of an unknown pathogen, 'Disease X', suggested by the World Health Organization to be a potential cause of a future major epidemic. We also outline the requirements and challenges, including the need for flexible platforms that generate sequence data in real-time, and for these data to be shared as widely and openly as possible.

Despite ongoing efforts to control transmission, rabies prevention remains a challenge in many developing countries, especially in rural areas of China where re-emerging rabies is under-reported due to a lack of sustained animal surveillance. By taking advantage of detailed genomic and epidemiological data for the re-emerging rabies outbreak in Yunnan Province, China, collected between 1999 and 2015, we reconstruct the demographic and dispersal history of domestic dog rabies virus (RABV) as well as the dynamics of dog-to-dog and dog-to-human transmission. Phylogeographic analyses reveal a lower diffusion coefficient than previously estimated for dog RABV dissemination in northern Africa. Furthermore, epidemiological analyses reveal transmission rates between dogs, as well as between dogs and humans, lower than estimates for Africa. Finally, we show that reconstructed epidemic history of RABV among dogs and the dynamics of rabid dogs are consistent with the recorded human rabies cases. This work illustrates the benefits of combining phylogeographic and epidemic modelling approaches for uncovering the spatiotemporal dynamics of zoonotic diseases, with both approaches providing estimates of key epidemiological parameters., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The phylogeographic history of the Brazilian HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C) epidemic is still unclear. Previous studies have mainly focused on the capital cities of Brazilian federal states, and the fact that HIV-1C infections increase at a higher rate than subtype B infections in Brazil calls for a better understanding of the process of spatial spread. A comprehensive sequence data set sampled across 22 Brazilian locations was assembled and analyzed. A Bayesian phylogeographic generalized linear model approach was used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal history of HIV-1C in Brazil, considering several potential explanatory predictors of the viral diffusion process. Analyses were performed on several subsampled data sets in order to mitigate potential sample biases. We reveal a central role for the city of Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost state, in the Brazilian HIV-1C epidemic (HIV-1C_BR), and the northward expansion of HIV-1C_BR could be linked to source populations with higher HIV-1 burdens and larger proportions of HIV-1C infections. The results presented here bring new insights to the continuing discussion about the HIV-1C epidemic in Brazil and raise an alternative hypothesis for its spatiotemporal history. The current work also highlights how sampling bias can confound phylogeographic analyses and demonstrates the importance of incorporating external information to protect against this. IMPORTANCE Subtype C is responsible for the largest HIV infection burden worldwide, but our understanding of its transmission dynamics remains incomplete. Brazil witnessed a relatively recent introduction of HIV-1C compared to HIV-1B, but it swiftly spread throughout the south, where it now circulates as the dominant variant. The northward spread has been comparatively slow, and HIV-1B still prevails in that region. While epidemiological data and viral genetic analyses have both independently shed light on the dynamics of spread in isolation, their combination has not yet been explored. Here, we complement publically available sequences and new genetic data from 13 cities with epidemiological data to reconstruct the history of HIV-1C spread in Brazil. The combined approach results in more robust reconstructions and can protect against sampling bias. We found evidence for an alternative view of the HIV-1C spatiotemporal history in Brazil that, contrary to previous explanations, integrates seamlessly with other observational data.

The near-complete genomic sequences of two hepatitis E virus (HEV) strains, detected from feces of infected pigs, were obtained. Phylogenetic analysis and p-distance comparisons of the complete coding regions showed a close relationship to the French swine strain FR-SHEV3c-like detected in 2006 (p-distance value 0.101), belonging to HEV-3 but not assigned to any known subtype. The three HEV sequences showed, relatively high nucleotide distances (p-distance >0.129) compared to the other defined HEV subtype references and unclassified strains. The HEV classification criteria and the high sequence similarity suggest that these strains can be assigned to a putative novel subtype of genotype 3, HEV-3l.

International audience; The Second Annual Meeting of the European Virus Bioinformatics Center (EVBC), held in Utrecht, Netherlands, focused on computational approaches in virology, with topics including (but not limited to) virus discovery, diagnostics, (meta-)genomics, modeling, epidemiology, molecular structure, evolution, and viral ecology. The goals of the Second Annual Meeting were threefold: (i) to bring together virologists and bioinformaticians from across the academic, industrial, professional, and training sectors to share best practice; (ii) to provide a meaningful and interactive scientific environment to promote discussion and collaboration between students, postdoctoral fellows, and both new and established investigators; (iii) to inspire and suggest new research directions and questions. Approximately 120 researchers from around the world attended the Second Annual Meeting of the EVBC this year, including 15 renowned international speakers. This report presents an overview of new developments and novel research findings that emerged during the meeting.

Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

© 2015 The Author. Background. The stability of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) reservoir and the contribution of cellular proliferation to the maintenance of the reservoir during treatment are uncertain. Therefore, we conducted a longitudinal analysis of HIV-1 in T-cell subsets in different tissue compartments from subjects receiving effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods. Using single-proviral sequencing, we isolated intracellular HIV-1 genomes derived from defined subsets of CD4+ T cells from peripheral blood, gut-associated lymphoid tissue and lymph node tissue specimens from 8 subjects with virologic suppression during long-term ART at 2 time points (time points 1 and 2) separated by 7-9 months. Results. DNA integrant frequencies were stable over time (

Phylogenetic analysis of yellow fever virus (YFV) strains isolated from Venezuela strongly supports YFV maintenance in situ in Venezuela, with evidence of regionally independent evolution within the country. However, there is considerable YFV movement from Brazil to Venezuela and between Trinidad and Venezuela. ispartof: Emerging Infectious Diseases vol:21 issue:1 pages:99-102 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Understanding the processes that give rise to quantitative measurements associated with molecular sequence data remains an important issue in statistical phylogenetics. Examples of such measurements include geographic coordinates in the context of phylogeography and phenotypic traits in the context of comparative studies. A popular approach is to model the evolution of continuously varying traits as a Brownian diffusion process acting on a phylogenetic tree. However, standard Brownian diffusion is quite restrictive and may not accurately characterize certain trait evolutionary processes. Here, we relax one of the major restrictions of standard Brownian diffusion by incorporating a nontrivial estimable mean into the process. We introduce a relaxed directional random walk (RDRW) model for the evolution of multivariate continuously varying traits along a phylogenetic tree. Notably, the RDRW model accommodates branch-specific variation of directional trends while preserving model identifiability. Furthermore, our development of a computationally efficient dynamic programming approach to compute the data likelihood enables scaling of our method to large data sets frequently encountered in phylogenetic comparative studies and viral evolution. We implement the RDRW model in a Bayesian inference framework to simultaneously reconstruct the evolutionary histories of molecular sequence data and associated multivariate continuous trait data, and provide tools to visualize evolutionary reconstructions. We demonstrate the performance of our model on synthetic data, and we illustrate its utility in two viral examples. First, we examine the spatiotemporal spread of HIV-1 in central Africa and show that the RDRW model uncovers a clearer, more detailed picture of the dynamics of viral dispersal than standard Brownian diffusion. Second, we study antigenic evolution in the context of HIV-1 resistance to three broadly neutralizing antibodies. Our analysis reveals evidence of a continuous drift at the HIV-1 population level towards enhanced resistance to neutralization by the VRC01 monoclonal antibody over the course of the epidemic. [Brownian Motion; Diffusion Processes; Phylodynamics; Phylogenetics; Phylogeography; Trait Evolution.].

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics. ispartof: Nature vol:544 issue:7650 pages:309- ispartof: location:England status: published

The relatedness between viral variants sampled at different locations through time can provide information pertinent to public health that cannot readily be obtained through standard surveillance methods. Here, we use virus genetic data to identify the transmission dynamics that drive the hepatitis C virus subtypes 4a (HCV4a) and 4d (HCV4d) epidemics in Saudi Arabia. We use a comprehensive dataset of newly generated and publicly available sequence data to infer the HCV4a and HCV4d evolutionary histories in a Bayesian statistical framework. We also introduce a novel analytical method for an objective assessment of the migration intensity between locations. We find that international host mobility patterns dominate over within country spread in shaping the Saudi Arabia HCV4a epidemic, while this may be different for the HCV4d epidemic. This indicates that the subtypes 4a and 4d burden can be most effectively reduced by combining the prioritized screening and treatment of Egyptian immigrants with domestic prevention campaigns. Our results highlight that the joint investigation of evolutionary and epidemiological processes can provide valuable public health information, even in the absence of extensive metadata information. ispartof: Scientific Reports vol:7 pages:44947- ispartof: location:England status: published

Seasonal influenza is caused by two influenza A subtype (H1N1 and H3N2) and two influenza B lineage (Victoria and Yamagata) viruses. Of these antigenically distinct viruses, the H3N2 virus was consistently detected in substantial proportions in Korea during the 2010/11-2013/14 seasons when compared to the other viruses and appeared responsible for the influenza-like illness rate peak during the first half of the 2011/12 season. To further scrutinize possible causes for this, we investigated the evolutionary and serological relationships between the vaccine and Korean H3N2 strains during the 2011/12 season for the main antigenic determinants of influenza viruses, the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes. In the 2011/12 season, when the number of H3N2 cases peaked, the majority of the Korean strains did not belong to the HA clade of A/Perth/16/2009 vaccine, and no Korean strains were of this lineage in the NA segment. In a serological assay, post-vaccinated human sera exhibited much reduced hemagglutination inhibition antibody titers against the non-vaccine clade Korean H3N2 strains. Moreover, Korean strains harbored several amino acid differences in the HA antigenic sites and in the NA with respect to vaccine lineages during this season. Of these, the HA antigenic site C residues 45 and 261 and the NA residue 81 appeared to be the signatures of positive selection. In subsequent seasons, when H3N2 cases were lower, the HA and NA genes of vaccine and Korean strains were more phylogenetically related to each other. Combined, our results provide indirect support for using phylogenetic clustering patterns of the HA and possibly also the NA genes in the selection of vaccine viruses and the assessment of vaccine effectiveness. ispartof: PLoS One vol:12 issue:3 ispartof: location:United States status: published

Iran is a large country that covers the northern coast of the Persian Gulf. Iranian residents of this coastal region interact closely with people from neighboring countries because of historical and cultural relationships, as well as economic activities. In addition, the inhabitants of this border region have experienced several wars, which have affected public health infrastructures. This study characterized for the first time, the evolution of the full-length genome of HBV strains in asymptomatic carrier patients living in this particular region. In addition, this study was compared and complemented by a comprehensive evolutionary analysis of the worldwide geographical distribution of HBV subgenotype D1. Evolutionary analysis demonstrates that patients living in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf are mainly infected with HBV subgenotype D1, subtype ayw2. Specific mutations related to advanced liver disease were found more frequently in these strains compared to other strains isolated from asymptomatic carriers from other regions of Iran. This global comprehensive analysis showed that HBV subgenotype D1 strains have a worldwide distribution and that human mobility and immigration had a large impact on dispersal of HBV subgenotype D1, subtype ayw2 in Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey. In addition to association of subtype ayw2 with subgenotype D1, it was demonstrated that other HBV subtypes like adw2, ayw1, and ayw3 are associated with HBV subgenotype D1 in different regions of the world. This study also revealed a remarkable distribution of subgenotype D1, subtype ayw4 although this particular subtype is associated with subgenotype D4 of HBV in European countries. J. Med. Virol. 86:745–757, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Molecular epidemiology has become a key tool for tracking infectious disease epidemics. Here, the spread of the most prevalent HIV-1 subtypes in Northern Alberta, Canada, was characterized with a Bayesian phylogenetic approach using 1146 HIV-1 pol sequences collected between 2007 and 2013 for routine clinical management purposes. Available patient metadata were qualitatively interpreted and correlated with onwards transmission using Fisher exact tests and logistic regression. Most infections were from subtypes A (n=36), B (n=815) and C (n=211). Africa is the dominant origin location for subtypes A and C while the subtype B epidemic was seeded from the USA and Middle America and, from the early 1990s onwards, mostly by interprovincial spread. Subtypes A (77.8%) and C (74.0%) were usually heterosexually transmitted and circulate predominantly among Blacks (61.1% and 85% respectively). Subtype B was mostly found among Caucasians (48.6%) and First Nations (36.8%), and its modes of transmission were stratified by ethnic origin. Compared to subtypes A (5.6%) and C (3.8-10.0%), a larger portion of subtype B patients were found within putative provincial transmission networks (20.3-29.5%), and this almost doubled when focusing on nationwide transmission clusters (37.9-57.5%). No clear association between cluster membership and particular patient characteristics was found. This study reveals complex and multi-faceted transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in this otherwise low HIV prevalence population in Northern Alberta, Canada. These findings can aid public health planning.

The genetic diversity of the HBV S gene has a significant impact on the prophylaxis and treatment of hepatitis B infection. The effect of selective pressure on this genetic alteration has not yet been studied in Iranian blood donors. To explore HBV evolution and to analyze the effects and patterns of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) mutations on blood screening assays, 358 Iranian blood donors diagnosed as asymptomatic HBV carriers were enrolled in this nationwide study. Large S and partial S genes were amplified and sequenced. HBV (sub) genotypes and synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations were investigated. The impact of naturally occurring mutations on HBsAg ELISA results was explored. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that isolated strains were of genotype D. The dominant subgenotype/subtype was D1/ayw2. Deletions and naturally occurring stop codons in the pre-S1 and major hydrophilic region (MHR) were identified. In total, 32.8% of the studied strains harbored 195 single or multiple mutations in the MHR, the majority of which were located at the first loop of the “a determinant” domain. The ayw2 subtype showed a significant effect on the ELISA signal/cut-off value and carried fewer mutations in the MHR. Nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution value indicated that negative selection was the dominant evolutionary force in the HBV S gene. This nationwide study revealed that mutation frequency of HBsAg among Iranian blood donors was much higher than previous reports from the different local regions. These findings regarding the significant differences in reactivity of ELISA among different subtypes of HBV and its correlation with the number of mutations at the MHR will be valuable to public health authorities. J. Med. Virol. 86:144–155, 2014. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.