1. Development and validation of a prediction model for severe respiratory failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-Cov-2 infection: a multicenter cohort study (PREDI-CO study)
- Author
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Ciro Fulgaro, Ioannis Tzimas, Luigi Raumer, Marianna Meschiari, Marianna Menozzi, Gabriella Verucchi, Giada Rossini, Filippo Trapani, Giacomo Fornaro, Michela Semprini, Alessandra Cascavilla, Emanuele Campaci, Maddalena Giannella, Luigia Scudeller, Alessandro Zuccotti, Irid Baxhaku, Lucia Angelelli, Eleonora Zamparini, Annalisa Saracino, Alberto Zuppiroli, Cristina Basso, Elisabetta Pierucci, Agostino Rossi, Giulia Santangelo, Paolo Gaibani, Francesco Cristini, Francesca Volpato, Elisa Fronti, Giovanni Guaraldi, Alberto Sarti, Giorgio Legnani, Mattia Neri, Mauro Codeluppi, Adriana Badeanu, Giulio Virgili, Chiara Pironi, Lorenzo Marconi, Sara K. Tedeschi, Vidak Koprivika, Francesco Barchiesi, Luciano Attard, Matteo Rinaldi, Paola Laghetti, Stefano Antonini, Linda Bussini, Caterina Campoli, Giacomo Urbinati, Marco Merli, Nicholas Roncagli, Agnese Pratelli, Elena Rosselli Del Turco, Silvia Rapuano, Luca Guerra, Stefano Ianniruberto, Francesco Dell'Omo, Michele Bartoletti, Livia Pancaldi, Viola Guardigni, Fabio Tumietto, Giuseppe Sasdelli, Vito Marco Ranieri, Flovia Dauti, Giovanni Fasulo, Eugenia Francalanci, Nicola Dentale, Amalia Sanna Passino, Tommaso Zanaboni, Arianna Rubin, Davide Fiore Bavaro, Idina Zavatta, Massimo Puoti, Letizia Pasinelli, Maria Cristina Leoni, Pierluigi Viale, Oana Vatamanu, Elena Piccini, Renato Pascale, Cristina Mussini, Luca Esposito, Simona Coladonato, Alice Gori, Giulia Tesini, Lorenzo Badia, Mara D'Onofrio, Alberto Licci, Enrico Evangelisti, Guido Maria Liuzzi, Giacinto Pizzilli, Nicolò Rossi, Tommaso Tonetti, Marina Tadolini, Zeno Pasquini, Caterina Vocale, Bartoletti M., Giannella M., Scudeller L., Tedeschi S., Rinaldi M., Bussini L., Fornaro G., Pascale R., Pancaldi L., Pasquini Z., Trapani F., Badia L., Campoli C., Tadolini M., Attard L., Puoti M., Merli M., Mussini C., Menozzi M., Meschiari M., Codeluppi M., Barchiesi F., Cristini F., Saracino A., Licci A., Rapuano S., Tonetti T., Gaibani P., Ranieri V.M., Viale P., Raumer L., Guerra L., Tumietto F., Cascavilla A., Zamparini E., Verucchi G., Coladonato S., Rubin A., Ianniruberto S., Francalanci E., Volpato F., Virgili G., Rossi N., Del Turco E.R., Guardigni V., Fasulo G., Dentale N., Fulgaro C., Legnani G., Campaci E., Basso C., Zuppiroli A., Passino A.S., Tesini G., Angelelli L., Badeanu A., Rossi A., Santangelo G., Dauti F., Koprivika V., Roncagli N., Tzimas I., Liuzzi G.M., Baxhaku I., Pasinelli L., Neri M., Zanaboni T., Dell'Omo F., Vatamanu O., Gori A., Zavatta I., Antonini S., Pironi C., Piccini E., Esposito L., Zuccotti A., Urbinati G., Pratelli A., Sarti A., Semprini M., Evangelisti E., D'Onofrio M., Sasdelli G., Pizzilli G., Pierucci E., Rossini G., Vocale C., Marconi L., Leoni M.C., Fronti E., Guaraldi G., Bavaro D., Laghetti P., Bartoletti, M, Giannella, M, Scudeller, L, Tedeschi, S, Rinaldi, M, Bussini, L, Fornaro, G, Pascale, R, Pancaldi, L, Pasquini, Z, Trapani, F, Badia, L, Campoli, C, Tadolini, M, Attard, L, Puoti, M, Merli, M, Mussini, C, Menozzi, M, Meschiari, M, Codeluppi, M, Barchiesi, F, Cristini, F, Saracino, A, Licci, A, Rapuano, S, Tonetti, T, Gaibani, P, Ranieri, V, Viale, P, Raumer, L, Guerra, L, Tumietto, F, Cascavilla, A, Zamparini, E, Verucchi, G, Coladonato, S, Rubin, A, Ianniruberto, S, Francalanci, E, Volpato, F, Virgili, G, Rossi, N, Del Turco, E, Guardigni, V, Fasulo, G, Dentale, N, Fulgaro, C, Legnani, G, Campaci, E, Basso, C, Zuppiroli, A, Passino, A, Tesini, G, Angelelli, L, Badeanu, A, Rossi, A, Santangelo, G, Dauti, F, Koprivika, V, Roncagli, N, Tzimas, I, Liuzzi, G, Baxhaku, I, Pasinelli, L, Neri, M, Zanaboni, T, Dell'Omo, F, Vatamanu, O, Gori, A, Zavatta, I, Antonini, S, Pironi, C, Piccini, E, Esposito, L, Zuccotti, A, Urbinati, G, Pratelli, A, Sarti, A, Semprini, M, Evangelisti, E, D'Onofrio, M, Sasdelli, G, Pizzilli, G, Pierucci, E, Rossini, G, Vocale, C, Marconi, L, Leoni, M, Fronti, E, Guaraldi, G, Bavaro, D, and Laghetti, P
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Male ,Logistic regression ,prognostic tool ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Positive predicative value ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Child ,Aged, 80 and over ,Framingham Risk Score ,Coronavirus disease 2019 ,Respiratory distress ,Lactate dehydrogenase ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Prognosis ,Hospitalization ,Infectious Diseases ,Italy ,Child, Preschool ,Female ,Coronavirus Infections ,Respiratory Insufficiency ,Cohort study ,Microbiology (medical) ,Adult ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Respiratory rate ,Adolescent ,COVID-19 ,SARS-CoV-2 ,severe respiratory failure ,030106 microbiology ,Pneumonia, Viral ,Risk Assessment ,Sensitivity and Specificity ,Article ,03 medical and health sciences ,Betacoronavirus ,Young Adult ,Age ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,Obesity ,Pandemics ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,business.industry ,Reproducibility of Results ,Retrospective cohort study ,Logistic Models ,Respiratory failure ,Multivariate Analysis ,business ,C-reactive proteine - Abstract
Objectives: We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict severe respiratory failure (SRF) among patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods: We performed a multicentre cohort study among hospitalized (>24 hours) patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 22 February to 3 April 2020, at 11 Italian hospitals. Patients were divided into derivation and validation cohorts according to random sorting of hospitals. SRF was assessed from admission to hospital discharge and was defined as: SpO2 30 breaths/min or respiratory distress. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of SRF, β-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Trial Registration NCT04316949. Results: We analysed 1113 patients (644 derivation, 469 validation cohort). Mean (±SD) age was 65.7 (±15) years, 704 (63.3%) were male. SRF occurred in 189/644 (29%) and 187/469 (40%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. At multivariate analysis, risk factors for SRF in the derivation cohort assessed at hospitalization were age ≥70 years (OR 2.74; 95% CI 1.66–4.50), obesity (OR 4.62; 95% CI 2.78–7.70), body temperature ≥38°C (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.30–2.29), respiratory rate ≥22 breaths/min (OR 3.75; 95% CI 2.01–7.01), lymphocytes ≤900 cells/mm3 (OR 2.69; 95% CI 1.60–4.51), creatinine ≥1 mg/dL (OR 2.38; 95% CI 1.59–3.56), C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/dL (OR 5.91; 95% CI 4.88–7.17) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥350 IU/L (OR 2.39; 95% CI 1.11–5.11). Assigning points to each variable, an individual risk score (PREDI-CO score) was obtained. Area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.89 (0.86–0.92). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 71.6% (65%–79%), 89.1% (86%–92%), 74% (67%–80%) and 89% (85%–91%), respectively. PREDI-CO score showed similar prognostic ability in the validation cohort: area under the receiver-operator curve 0.85 (0.81–0.88). At a score of >3, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 80% (73%–85%), 76% (70%–81%), 69% (60%–74%) and 85% (80%–89%), respectively. Conclusion: PREDI-CO score can be useful to allocate resources and prioritize treatments during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Published
- 2020