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Introduction: Initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in patients early after HIV-infection and long-term suppression leads to low or undetectable levels of HIV RNA and cell-associated (CA) HIV DNA and RNA. Both CA-DNA and CA-RNA, overestimate the size of the HIV reservoir but CA-RNA as well as p24/cell-free viral RNA can be indicators of residual viral replication. This study describes HIV RNA amounts and levels of cytokines/soluble markers in 40 well-suppressed adolescents who initiated ART early in life and investigated which viral markers may be informative as endpoints in cure clinical trials within this population., Methods: Forty adolescents perinatally infected with HIV on suppressive ART for >5 years were enrolled in the CARMA study. HIV DNA and total or unspliced CA-RNA in PBMCs were analyzed by qPCR/RT-qPCR and dPCR/RT-dPCR. Cell-free HIV was determined using an ultrasensitive viral load (US-VL) assay. Plasma markers and p24 were analyzed by digital ELISA and correlations between total and unspliced HIV RNA and clinical markers, including age at ART, Western Blot score, levels of cytokines/inflammation markers or HIV CA-DNA, were tested., Results: CA-RNA was detected in two thirds of the participants and was comparable in RT-qPCR and RT-dPCR. Adolescents with undetectable CA-RNA showed significantly lower HIV DNA compared to individuals with detectable CA-RNA. Undetectable unspliced CA-RNA was positively associated with age at ART initiation and Western Blot score. We found that a higher concentration of TNF-α was predictive of higher CA-DNA and CA-RNA. Other clinical characteristics like US-VL, time to suppression, or percent CD4+ T-lymphocytes were not predictive of the CA-RNA in this cross-sectional study., Conclusions: Low CA-DNA after long-term suppressive ART is associated with lower CA-RNA, in concordance with other reports. Patients with low CA-RNA levels in combination with low CA-DNA and low Western Blot scores should be further investigated to characterize candidates for treatment interruption trials. Unspliced CA-RNA warrants further investigation as a marker that can be prioritized in paediatric clinical trials where the sample volume can be a significant limitation., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (Copyright © 2024 Gärtner, Domínguez-Rodríguez, Heaney, Gkouleli, Grant, Dorgham, Sauce, Soulie, Busby, O’Sullivan, Spyer, Botha, Muñoz-Fernandez, Tagarro, Cotugno, Huggett, Klein, Palma, Rojo Conejo, Foster, Giaquinto, Rossi, Persaud, De Rossi, Marcelin and Nastouli.)

Objective: HIV viral load (VL) monitoring is generally conducted 6-12 monthly in low- and middle-income countries, risking relatively prolonged periods of poor viral control. We explored the effects of different levels of loss of viral control on immune reconstitution and activation., Design: Two hundred and eight participants starting protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line therapy in the EARNEST trial (ISRCTN37737787) in Uganda and Zimbabwe were enrolled and CD38 + /HLA-DR + immunophenotyping performed (CD8-FITC/CD38-PE/CD3-PerCP/HLA-DR-APC; centrally gated) in real-time at 0, 12, 48, 96 and 144 weeks from randomization., Methods: VL was assayed retrospectively on samples collected every 12-16 weeks and classified as continuous suppression (<40 copies/ml throughout); suppression with transient blips; low-level rebound (two or more consecutive VL >40, <5000 copies/ml); high-level rebound/nonresponse (two or more consecutive VL >5000 copies/ml)., Results: Immunophenotype reconstitution varied between that defined by numbers of cells and that defined by cell percentages. Furthermore, VL dynamics were associated with substantial differences in expression of CD4 + and CD8 + cell activation markers, with only individuals with high-level rebound/nonresponse (>5000 copies/ml) experiencing significantly greater activation and impaired reconstitution. There was little difference between participants who suppressed consistently and who exhibited transient blips or even low-level rebound by 144 weeks ( P  > 0.2 vs. suppressed consistently)., Conclusion: Detectable viral load below the threshold at which WHO guidelines recommend that treatment can be maintained without switching (1000 copies/ml) appear to have at most, small effects on reconstitution and activation, for patients taking a PI-based second-line regimen., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) risk assessment algorithm for vertical transmission of HIV (VT) assumes the availability of maternal viral load (VL) result at delivery and early viral control 4 weeks after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART). However, in many low-and-middle-income countries, VL is often unavailable and mothers' ART adherence may be suboptimal. We evaluate the inclusion of the mothers' self-reported adherence into the established WHO-algorithm to identify infants eligible for enhanced post-natal prophylaxis when mothers' VL result is not available at delivery., Methods: We used data from infants with perinatal HIV infection and their mothers enrolled from May-2018 to May-2020 in Mozambique, South Africa, and Mali. We retrospectively compared the performance of the WHO-algorithm with a modified algorithm which included mothers' adherence as an additional factor. Infants were considered at high risk if born from mothers without a VL result in the 4 weeks before delivery and with adherence <90%., Results: At delivery, 143/184(78%) women with HIV knew their status and were on ART. Only 17(12%) obtained a VL result within 4 weeks before delivery, and 13/17(76%) of them had VL ≥1000 copies/ml. From 126 women on ART without a recent VL result, 99(79%) had been on ART for over 4 weeks. 45/99(45%) women reported suboptimal (< 90%) adherence. A total of 81/184(44%) infants were classified as high risk of VT as per the WHO-algorithm. The modified algorithm including self-adherence disclosure identified 126/184(68%) high risk infants., Conclusions: In the absence of a VL result, mothers' self-reported adherence at delivery increases the number of identified infants eligible to receive enhanced post-natal prophylaxis., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To assess baseline prevalence of cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) positivity; and its contribution to reductions in all-cause mortality, deaths from cryptococcus and unknown causes, and new cryptococcal disease in the REALITY trial., Design: Retrospective CrAg testing of baseline and week-4 plasma samples in all 1805 African adults/children with CD4+ cell count less than 100 cells/μl starting antiretroviral therapy who were randomized to receive 12-week enhanced-prophylaxis (fluconazole 100 mg/day, azithromycin, isoniazid, cotrimoxazole) vs. standard-prophylaxis (cotrimoxazole)., Methods: Proportional hazards models were used to estimate the relative impact of enhanced-prophylaxis vs. standard-cotrimoxazole on all, cryptococcal and unknown deaths, and new cryptococcal disease, through 24 weeks, by baseline CrAg positivity., Results: Excluding 24 (1.4%) participants with active/prior cryptococcal disease at enrolment (all treated for cryptococcal disease), 133/1781 (7.5%) participants were CrAg-positive. By 24 weeks, 105 standard-cotrimoxazole vs. 78 enhanced-prophylaxis participants died. Of nine standard-cotrimoxazole and three enhanced-prophylaxis cryptococcal deaths, seven and two, respectively, were CrAg-positive at baseline. Among deaths of unknown cause, only 1/46 standard-cotrimoxazole and 1/28 enhanced-prophylaxis were CrAg-positive at baseline. There was no evidence that relative reductions in new cryptococcal disease associated with enhanced-prophylaxis varied between baseline CrAg-positives [hazard-ratio = 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.13-0.98), incidence 19.5 vs. 56.5/100 person-years] and CrAg-negatives [hazard-ratio = 0.33 (0.03-3.14), incidence 0.3 vs. 0.9/100 person-years; Pheterogeneity = 0.95]; nor for all deaths, cryptococcal deaths or unknown deaths (Pheterogeneity > 0.3)., Conclusion: Relative reductions in cryptococcal disease/death did not depend on CrAg status. Deaths of unknown cause were unlikely to be cryptococcus-related; plausibly azithromycin contributed to their reduction. Findings support including 100 mg fluconazole in an enhanced-prophylaxis package at antiretroviral therapy initiation where CrAg screening is unavailable/impractical., (Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Poorer virologic response to nevirapine- versus efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been reported in adult systematic reviews and pediatric studies., Methods: We compared drug discontinuation and viral load (VL) response in ART-naïve Ugandan/Zimbabwean children ≥3 years of age initiating ART with clinician-chosen nevirapine versus efavirenz in the ARROW trial. Predictors of suppression <80, <400 and <1000 copies/mL at 36, 48 and 144 weeks were identified using multivariable logistic regression with backwards elimination (P = 0.1)., Results: A total of 445 (53%) children received efavirenz and 391 (47%) nevirapine. Children receiving efavirenz were older (median age, 8.6 vs. 7.5 years nevirapine, P < 0.001) and had higher CD4% (12% vs. 10%, P = 0.05), but similar pre-ART VL (P = 0.17). The initial non-nucleoside-reverse-transcriptase-inhibitor (NNRTI) was permanently discontinued for adverse events in 7 of 445 (2%) children initiating efavirenz versus 9 of 391 (2%) initiating nevirapine (P = 0.46); at switch to second line in 17 versus 23, for tuberculosis in 0 versus 26, for pregnancy in 6 versus 0 and for other reasons in 15 versus 5. Early (36-48 weeks) virologic suppression <80 copies/mL was superior with efavirenz, particularly in children with higher pre-ART VL (P = 0.0004); longer-term suppression was superior with nevirapine in older children (P = 0.05). Early suppression was poorer in the youngest and oldest children, regardless of NNRTI (P = 0.02); longer-term suppression was poorer in those with higher pre-ART VL regardless of NNRTI (P = 0.05). Results were broadly similar for <400 and <1000 copies/mL., Conclusion: Short-term VL suppression favored efavirenz, but long-term relative performance was age dependent, with better suppression in older children with nevirapine, supporting World Health Organization recommendation that nevirapine remains an alternative NNRTI.

Objectives: To examine hepatitis B (HBV) serological markers and plasma DNA concentrations in a large group of untreated HBV/HIV-coinfected individuals in two sub-Saharan settings., Design: Baseline analysis of a randomized controlled trial., Methods: DART was a large trial of treatment monitoring practices in HIV-infected adults with advanced disease starting antiretroviral therapy at centres in Kampala or Entebbe, Uganda (n = 2317) and Harare, Zimbabwe (n = 999). HBV serological markers [antibody to HBV core antigen, HBV surface antigen (HBsAg), antibody to HBV surface antigen, HBV 'e' antigen (HBeAg), and antibody to hepatitis B 'e' antigen] and plasma HBV DNA viral load were measured retrospectively on stored baseline samples. Logistic regression was used to examine associations with baseline demographic and clinical factors., Results: The rate of HBsAg positivity was significantly higher in Zimbabwe than Uganda (12.2 vs. 7.7%, adjusted odds ratio = 1.54, P < 0.001) despite a similar prevalence of antibody to HBV core antigen (56.3 vs. 52.4%) in the two settings. Overall, HBsAg positivity was associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio = 1.54, P < 0.001) but not with age, WHO disease stage, or CD4 cell count. HBeAg was detected among 37% of HBsAg-positive patients, with higher rates among those with advanced WHO stage (P = 0.02). Also in HBsAg-positive patients, HBV DNA was undetectable in 21%, detectable but below the level of quantification in 14%, and quantifiable in 65%. A total of 96% of HBeAg-positive and 70% of HBeAg-negative patients had detectable HBV DNA; 92 and 28% of patients, respectively, had HBV DNA viral load more than 2000 IU/ml., Conclusion: High rates of HBV coinfection were observed, highlighting the importance of ensuring that coinfected patients receive an antiretroviral regimen, whether first-line or not, that is active against both viruses.

Background: Identifying determinants of morbidity and mortality may help target future interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children., Methods: CD4(+) T-cell count, HIV viral load, and levels of biomarkers (C-reactive protein, tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α], interleukin 6 [IL-6], and soluble CD14) and interleukin 7 were measured at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in the ARROW trial (case-cohort design). Cases were individuals who died, had new or recurrent World Health Organization clinical stage 4 events, or had poor immunological response to ART., Results: There were 115 cases (54 died, 45 had World Health Organization clinical stage 4 events, and 49 had poor immunological response) and 485 controls. Before ART initiation, the median ages of cases and controls were 8.2 years (interquartile range [IQR], 4.4-11.4 years) and 5.8 years (IQR, 2.3-9.3 years), respectively, and the median percentages of lymphocytes expressing CD4 were 4% (IQR, 1%-9%) and 13% (IQR, 8%-18%), respectively. In multivariable logistic regression, cases had lower age-associated CD4(+) T-cell count ratio (calculated as the ratio of the subject's CD4(+) T-cell count to the count expected in healthy individuals of the same age; P < .0001) and higher IL-6 level (P = .002) than controls. Clustering biomarkers and age-associated CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell count ratios identified 4 groups of children. Group 1 had the highest frequency of cases (41% cases; 16% died) and profound immunosuppression; group 2 had similar mortality (23% cases; 15% died), but children were younger, with less profound immunosuppression and high levels of inflammatory biomarkers and malnutrition; group 3 comprised young children with moderate immunosuppression, high TNF-α levels, and high age-associated CD8(+) T-cell count ratios but lower frequencies of events (12% cases; 7% died); and group 4 comprised older children with low inflammatory biomarker levels, lower HIV viral loads, and good clinical outcomes (11% cases; 5% died)., Conclusions: While immunosuppression is the major determinant of poor outcomes during ART, baseline inflammation is an additional important factor, identifying a subgroup of young children with similar mortality. Antiinflammatory interventions may help improve outcomes., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Around 2.5 million HIV-infected individuals failing first-line therapy qualify for boosted protease inhibitor (bPI)-based second-line therapy globally. Major resistance mutations are rarely present at treatment failure in patients receiving bPI and the determinants of failure in these patients remain unknown. There is evidence that Gag can impact PI susceptibility. Here, we have sequenced Gag-Protease before and following failure in 23 patients in the SARA trial infected with subtypes A, C, and D viruses. Before bPI, significant variation in Protease and Gag was observed at positions previously associated with PI exposure and resistance including Gag mutations L449P, S451N, and L453P and Protease K20I and L63P. Following PI failure, previously described mutations in Protease and Gag were observed, including those at the cleavage sites such as R361K and P453L. However, the emergence of clear genetic determinants of therapy failure across patients was not observed. Larger Gag sequence datasets will be required to comprehensively identify mutational correlates of bPI failure across subtypes.

Background: Major protease mutations are rarely observed following failure with protease inhibitors (PI), and other viral determinants of failure to PI are poorly understood. We therefore characterized Gag-Protease phenotypic susceptibility in subtype A and D viruses circulating in East Africa following viral rebound on PIs., Methods: Samples from baseline and treatment failure in patients enrolled in the second line LPV/r trial SARA underwent phenotypic susceptibility testing. Data were expressed as fold-change in susceptibility relative to a LPV-susceptible reference strain., Results: We cloned 48 Gag-Protease containing sequences from seven individuals and performed drug resistance phenotyping from pre-PI and treatment failure timepoints in seven patients. For the six patients where major protease inhibitor resistance mutations did not emerge, mean fold-change EC50 to LPV was 4.07 fold (95% CI, 2.08-6.07) at the pre-PI timepoint. Following viral failure the mean fold-change in EC50 to LPV was 4.25 fold (95% CI, 1.39-7.11, p = 0.91). All viruses remained susceptible to DRV. In our assay system, the major PI resistance mutation I84V, which emerged in one individual, conferred a 10.5-fold reduction in LPV susceptibility. One of the six patients exhibited a significant reduction in susceptibility between pre-PI and failure timepoints (from 4.7 fold to 9.6 fold) in the absence of known major mutations in protease, but associated with changes in Gag: V7I, G49D, R69Q, A120D, Q127K, N375S and I462S. Phylogenetic analysis provided evidence of the emergence of genetically distinct viruses at the time of treatment failure, indicating ongoing viral evolution in Gag-protease under PI pressure., Conclusions: Here we observe in one patient the development of significantly reduced susceptibility conferred by changes in Gag which may have contributed to treatment failure on a protease inhibitor containing regimen. Further phenotype-genotype studies are required to elucidate genetic determinants of protease inhibitor failure in those who fail without traditional resistance mutations whilst PI use is being scaled up globally.

Objectives: To assess the impact of exposure to single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) on virological response in young Ugandan/Zimbabwean children (<3 years) initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and to investigate other predictors of response., Design: Observational analysis within the ARROW randomized trial., Methods: sdNVP exposure was ascertained by the caregiver's self-report when the child initiated non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based ART. Viral load was assayed retrospectively over a median 4.1 years of follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify independent predictors of viral load below 80 copies/ml, 48 and 144 weeks after ART initiation (backwards elimination, exit P = 0.1)., Results: Median (IQR) age at ART initiation was 17 (10-23) months in 78 sdNVP-exposed children vs. 21 (14-27) months in 289 non-exposed children (36 vs. 20% <12 months). At week 48, 49 of 73 (67%) sdNVP-exposed and 154 of 272 (57%) non-exposed children had viral load below 80 copies/ml [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.34 (1.26-4.34), P = 0.007]; 79 and 77% had viral load below 400 copies/ml. Suppression was significantly lower in males (P = 0.009), those with higher pre-ART viral load (P = 0.001), taking syrups (P = 0.05) and with lower self-reported adherence (P = 0.04). At week 144, 55 of 73 (75%) exposed and 188 of 272 (69%) non-exposed children had less than 80 copies/ml [aOR 1.75 (0.93-3.29), P = 0.08]. There was no difference between children with and without previous sdNVP exposure in intermediate/high-level resistance to NRTIs (P > 0.3) or NNRTIs (P > 0.1) (n = 88) at week 144., Conclusion: Given the limited global availability of lopinavir/ritonavir, its significant formulation challenges in young children, and the significant paediatric treatment gap, tablet fixed-dose-combination NVP-based ART remains a good alternative to syrup lopinavir-based ART for children, particularly those over 1 year and even if exposed to sdNVP.

Background: Boosted protease inhibitor (bPI) monotherapy (bPImono) potentially has substantial cost, safety and operational benefits. It has never been evaluated as second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa., Methods: After 24 weeks of lopinavir/ritonavir-containing second-line therapy, DART participants were randomized to remain on combination therapy (CT), or change to bPImono maintenance (SARA trial; ISRCTN53817258). Joint primary end points were CD4(+) T-cell changes 24 weeks later and serious adverse events (SAEs); retrospectively assayed viral load (VL) was a secondary end point. Analyses were intention-to-treat., Results: A total of 192 participants were randomized to CT (n=95) or bPImono (n=97) and followed for median 60 weeks (IQR 45-84). Participants received median 4.0 years (IQR 3.5-4.4) first-line ART. Median CD4(+) T-cell count at first-line failure was 86 cells/mm(3) (47-136), increasing to 245 cells/mm(3) (173-325) after 24-week induction when 77% had VL<50 copies/ml. Overall, 44 (23%) were receiving second-line therapy with bPI and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) only, and 148 (77%) with bPI plus non-NRTI (NNRTI) with or without NRTI. At 24 weeks after randomization to CT versus bPImono, mean CD4(+) T-cell increase was 42 (CT, n=85) versus 49 cells/mm(3) (bPImono, n=88; adjusted difference 13 [95% CI -15, 43], P=0.37; non-inferior compared with predetermined non-inferiority margin [-33]). Virological suppression was greater for CT versus bPImono (trend P=0.009): 77% (70/91) versus 60% (56/94) were <50 copies/ml, and 5% (5) versus 14% (13) were ≥1,000 copies/ml, respectively. A total of 0 (0%) versus 5 (5%) participants had major protease inhibitor mutations and 3 (3%) versus 0 (0%) new NNRTI/NRTI mutations were detected during follow-up. Two participants (1 CT and 1 bPImono) died >24 weeks after randomization, and 5 (2 CT and 3 bPImono) experienced SAEs (P=0.51)., Conclusions: bPImono following a 24-week second-line induction was associated with similar CD4(+) T-cell response, but increased low-level viraemia, generally without protease inhibitor resistance. Longer-term trials are needed to provide definitive evidence about effectiveness in Africa.

Background: Few data have described long-term outcomes for infants born to HIV-infected African women taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) in pregnancy. This is particularly true for World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended tenofovir-containing first-line regimens, which are increasingly used and known to cause renal and bone toxicities; concerns have been raised about potential toxicity in babies due to in utero tenofovir exposure., Methods and Findings: Pregnancy outcome and maternal/infant ART were collected in Ugandan/Zimbabwean HIV-infected women initiating ART during The Development of AntiRetroviral Therapy in Africa (DART) trial, which compared routine laboratory monitoring (CD4; toxicity) versus clinically driven monitoring. Women were followed 15 January 2003 to 28 September 2009. Infant feeding, clinical status, and biochemistry/haematology results were collected in a separate infant study. Effect of in utero ART exposure on infant growth was analysed using random effects models. 382 pregnancies occurred in 302/1,867 (16%) women (4.4/100 woman-years [95% CI 4.0-4.9]). 226/390 (58%) outcomes were live-births, 27 (7%) stillbirths (≥22 wk), and 137 (35%) terminations/miscarriages (<22 wk). Of 226 live-births, seven (3%) infants died <2 wk from perinatal causes and there were seven (3%) congenital abnormalities, with no effect of in utero tenofovir exposure (p>0.4). Of 219 surviving infants, 182 (83%) enrolled in the follow-up study; median (interquartile range [IQR]) age at last visit was 25 (12-38) months. From mothers' ART, 62/9/111 infants had no/20%-89%/≥90% in utero tenofovir exposure; most were also zidovudine/lamivudine exposed. All 172 infants tested were HIV-negative (ten untested). Only 73/182(40%) infants were breast-fed for median 94 (IQR 75-212) days. Overall, 14 infants died at median (IQR) age 9 (3-23) months, giving 5% 12-month mortality; six of 14 were HIV-uninfected; eight untested infants died of respiratory infection (three), sepsis (two), burns (one), measles (one), unknown (one). During follow-up, no bone fractures were reported to have occurred; 12/368 creatinines and seven out of 305 phosphates were grade one (16) or two (three) in 14 children with no effect of in utero tenofovir (p>0.1). There was no evidence that in utero tenofovir affected growth after 2 years (p = 0.38). Attained height- and weight for age were similar to general (HIV-uninfected) Ugandan populations. Study limitations included relatively small size and lack of randomisation to maternal ART regimens., Conclusions: Overall 1-year 5% infant mortality was similar to the 2%-4% post-neonatal mortality observed in this region. No increase in congenital, renal, or growth abnormalities was observed with in utero tenofovir exposure. Although some infants died untested, absence of recorded HIV infection with combination ART in pregnancy is encouraging. Detailed safety of tenofovir for pre-exposure prophylaxis will need confirmation from longer term follow-up of larger numbers of exposed children., Trial Registration: www.controlled-trials.com ISRCTN13968779

Background: HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) is often managed without routine laboratory monitoring in Africa; however, the effect of this approach is unknown. This trial investigated whether routine toxicity and efficacy monitoring of HIV-infected patients receiving ART had an important long-term effect on clinical outcomes in Africa., Methods: In this open, non-inferiority trial in three centres in Uganda and one in Zimbabwe, 3321 symptomatic, ART-naive, HIV-infected adults with CD4 counts less than 200 cells per microL starting ART were randomly assigned to laboratory and clinical monitoring (LCM; n=1659) or clinically driven monitoring (CDM; n=1662) by a computer-generated list. Haematology, biochemistry, and CD4-cell counts were done every 12 weeks. In the LCM group, results were available to clinicians; in the CDM group, results (apart from CD4-cell count) could be requested if clinically indicated and grade 4 toxicities were available. Participants switched to second-line ART after new or recurrent WHO stage 4 events in both groups, or CD4 count less than 100 cells per microL (LCM only). Co-primary endpoints were new WHO stage 4 HIV events or death, and serious adverse events. Non-inferiority was defined as the upper 95% confidence limit for the hazard ratio (HR) for new WHO stage 4 events or death being no greater than 1.18. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN13968779., Findings: Two participants assigned to CDM and three to LCM were excluded from analyses. 5-year survival was 87% (95% CI 85-88) in the CDM group and 90% (88-91) in the LCM group, and 122 (7%) and 112 (7%) participants, respectively, were lost to follow-up over median 4.9 years' follow-up. 459 (28%) participants receiving CDM versus 356 (21%) LCM had a new WHO stage 4 event or died (6.94 [95% CI 6.33-7.60] vs 5.24 [4.72-5.81] per 100 person-years; absolute difference 1.70 per 100 person-years [0.87-2.54]; HR 1.31 [1.14-1.51]; p=0.0001). Differences in disease progression occurred from the third year on ART, whereas higher rates of switch to second-line treatment occurred in LCM from the second year. 283 (17%) participants receiving CDM versus 260 (16%) LCM had a new serious adverse event (HR 1.12 [0.94-1.32]; p=0.19), with anaemia the most common (76 vs 61 cases)., Interpretation: ART can be delivered safely without routine laboratory monitoring for toxic effects, but differences in disease progression suggest a role for monitoring of CD4-cell count from the second year of ART to guide the switch to second-line treatment., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, the UK Department for International Development, the Rockefeller Foundation, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Abbott Laboratories., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)