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A pressing challenge facing the aviation industry is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the face of increasing demand for aviation fuels. Climate goals such as carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onwards require continuous improvements in technology, operations, infrastructure, and most importantly, reductions in aviation fuel life cycle emissions. The Carbon Offsetting Scheme for International Aviation of the International Civil Aviation Organization provides a global market-based measure to group all possible emissions reduction measures into a joint program. Using a bottom-up, engineering-based modeling approach, this study provides the first estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from petroleum jet fuel on regional and global scales. Here we show that not all petroleum jet fuels are the same as the country-level life cycle emissions of petroleum jet fuels range from 81.1 to 94.8 gCO2e MJ−1, with a global volume-weighted average of 88.7 gCO2e MJ−1. These findings provide a high-resolution baseline against which sustainable aviation fuel and other emissions reduction opportunities can be prioritized to achieve greater emissions reductions faster. This study presents a global well-to-wake assessment of jet fuel greenhouse gas emissions with a range of 81.1-94.8 gCO2e MJ−1. Understanding this variability can improve decision-making amid the transition to decarbonizing aviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Up to 500 litres of water may be consumed at the batching plant per cubic meter of ready mix concrete, if water for washing mixing trucks and equipment is included. Demand for concrete is growing almost everywhere, regardless of local availability of freshwater. The use of freshwater for concrete production exacerbates stress on natural water resources. In water-stressed coastal countries such as Israel, desalinated seawater (DSW) is often used in the production of concrete. However, the environmental impacts of this practice have not yet been assessed. In this study the effect of using DSW on the water and carbon footprints of concrete was investigated using life cycle assessment. Water footprint results highlight the benefits of using DSW rather than freshwater to produce concrete in Israel. In contrast, because desalination is an energy intensive process, using DSW increases the greenhouse gas intensity of concrete. Nevertheless, this increase (0.27 kg CO2e/m³ concrete) is small, if compared to the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of concrete. Our results show that using untreated seawater in the mix (transported by truck from the coast) in place of DSW, would be beneficial in terms of water and carbon footprints if the batching plant were located less than 13 km from the withdrawal point. However, use of untreated seawater increases steel reinforcement corrosion, resulting in loss of structural integrity of the reinforced concrete composite. Sustainability of replacing steel with non-corrosive materials should be explored as a way to reduce both water and carbon footprints of concrete. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vehicle lightweighting reduces fuel cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but may increase vehicle cycle (production) GHG emissions because of the GHG intensity of lightweight material production. Life cycle GHG emissions are estimated and sensitivity and Monte Carlo analyses conducted to systematically examine the variables that affect the impact of lightweighting on life cycle GHG emissions. The study uses two real world gliders (vehicles without powertrain or battery) to provide a realistic basis for the analysis. The conventional and lightweight gliders are based on the Ford Fusion and Multi Material Lightweight Vehicle, respectively. These gliders were modelled with internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) powertrains. The probability that using the lightweight glider in place of the conventional (steel-intensive) glider reduces life cycle GHG emissions are: ICEV, 100%; HEV, 100%, and BEV, 74%. The extent to which life cycle GHG emissions are reduced depends on the powertrain, which affects fuel cycle GHG emissions. Lightweighting an ICEV results in greater base case GHG emissions mitigation (10 t CO 2 eq.) than lightweighting a more efficient HEV (6 t CO 2 eq.). BEV lightweighting can result in higher or lower GHG mitigation than gasoline vehicles, depending largely on the source of electricity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas ( GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While bioenergy plays a key role in strategies for increasing renewable energy deployment, studies assessing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from forest bioenergy systems have identified a potential trade-off of the system with forest carbon stocks. Of particular importance to national GHG inventories is how trade-offs between forest carbon stocks and bioenergy production are accounted for within the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector under current and future international climate change mitigation agreements. Through a case study of electricity produced using wood pellets from harvested forest stands in Ontario, Canada, this study assesses the implications of forest carbon accounting approaches on net emissions attributable to pellets produced for domestic use or export. Particular emphasis is placed on the forest management reference level (FMRL) method, as it will be employed by most Annex I nations in the next Kyoto Protocol Commitment Period. While bioenergy production is found to reduce forest carbon sequestration, under the FMRL approach this trade-off may not be accounted for and thus not incur an accountable AFOLU-related emission, provided that total forest harvest remains at or below that defined under the FMRL baseline. In contrast, accounting for forest carbon trade-offs associated with harvest for bioenergy results in an increase in net GHG emissions (AFOLU and life cycle emissions) lasting 37 or 90 years (if displacing coal or natural gas combined cycle generation, respectively). AFOLU emissions calculated using the Gross-Net approach are dominated by legacy effects of past management and natural disturbance, indicating near-term net forest carbon increase but longer-term reduction in forest carbon stocks. Export of wood pellets to EU markets does not greatly affect the total life cycle GHG emissions of wood pellets. However, pellet exporting countries risk creating a considerable GHG emissions burden, as they are responsible for AFOLU and bioenergy production emissions but do not receive credit for pellets displacing fossil fuel-related GHG emissions. Countries producing bioenergy from forest biomass, whether for domestic use or for export, should carefully consider potential implications of alternate forest carbon accounting methods to ensure that potential bioenergy pathways can contribute to GHG emissions reduction targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) program in North America was recently implemented in Ontario, Canada to stimulate the generation of electricity from renewable sources. The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economics of electricity generation through anaerobic digestion (AD) of household source-separated organic waste (HSSOW) are investigated within the FiT program. AD can potentially provide considerable GHG emission reductions (up to 1 t CO2eq/t HSSOW) at relatively low to moderate cost (-$35 to 160/t CO2eq) by displacing fossil electricity and preventing the emission of landfill gas. It is a cost-effective GHG mitigation option compared to some other FiT technologies (e.g., wind, solar photovoltaic) and provides unique additional benefits (waste diversion, nutrient recycling). The combination of electricity sales at a premium rate, savings in waste management costs, and economies of scale allow AD facilities processing >30,000 t/yr to be cost-competitive against landfilling. However, the FiT does not sufficiently support smaller-scale facilities that are needed as a transition to larger, more economically viable facilities. Refocusing of the FiT program and waste policies are needed to support the adoption of AD of HSSOW, which has not yet been developed in the Province, while more costly technologies (e.g., photovoltaic) have been deployed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Two different sized hydropower projects in China, one with a capacity of 44 MW and the other of 3,600 MW, were examined through life-cycle assessment (LCA) from the perspective of both sustainability and environmental impact and the influence of project scale. Using the economic input-output based LCA approach, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were quantified. The resulting energy payback ratios were found to be 7 and 48, whereas the normalized GHG emissions were 44 and 6 gCO2 equivalent per kW h of electricity production, both in favor of the larger project. Compared with published data on other renewable and nonrenewable options, temperate hydropower, particularly large hydropower, is indicated as an efficient electrical source with relatively low GHG emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Over the last 30 years the use of light weight, inexpensive, and durable plastics in automobiles has nearly tripled on a per vehicle basis. Although this has created benefits such as increased fuel efficiency and associated lower CO2 emissions, the growing disposition of plastics from end-of-life vehicles has put increasing pressure on North American landfill capacity. Financial and life cycle assessment models were developed and applied to the current and proposed recycling business operations of AADCO Automotive Incorporated (AADCO), a leading Canadian automotive dismantling company. By applying both kinds of models, two key questions are addressed. First, how much is it expected to cost AADCO to participate in a start-up automotive plastics recycling network? and second, by estimating greenhouse gas emissions and energy requirements, is recycling automotive plastics actually better for the environment compared to manufacturing virgin plastic resin within the boundaries set forth in this case study? The present study concluded that the proposed recycling network would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy requirements by nearly 50% when compared to the current operations at AADCO (equating to a reduction of 1063tonnes of CO2(eq) and 18TJ, respectively). However, in spite of the environmental benefits, the magnitude of the added costs for AADCO to participate in the post-consumer automotive plastics recycling network resulted in an unprofitable value proposition for the company. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Bio-based jet fuels are projected by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to play a major role in meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Recent literature has identified promising pathways for biojet fuel production, including several pathways approved by the ASTM International. Despite the importance of this topic, only a few studies have examined the financial metrics of biojet production, and different assumptions make it difficult to compare results. This paper evaluates and compares the financial viability of six key biojet fuel production pathways using appropriate biomass feedstocks. The pathways were analyzed from a technical and financial perspective, utilizing a common discounted cash flow approach and Monte Carlo analysis, considering internal (e.g. scale-up to commercial scale) and external (e.g. oil price) uncertainties. The hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids technology with oil feedstock had the most promising financial results, with an internal rate of return of over 26% and a 70% probability of exceeding the minimum attractive rate of return (MARR = 15%) even under the most pessimistic scenario. The next most attractive pathway was catalytic hydrothermolysis, which had favorable financial performance, but only under a scenario that assumed an oil price range of $93 to $140 per barrel. Pyrolysis and gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis presented high financial risk under an oil price range of $50 to $93 per barrel and low technical development scenarios, whereas the alcohol-to-jet and direct-fermentation-to-jet technologies were found to be unlikely to achieve the MARR for any of the scenarios. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The corn stover ethanol models from GREET and GHGenius were compared. • Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from baseline models differed by 45 gCO 2 e MJ−1. • Key inputs and assumptions in the models were aligned and made identical. • Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions differed by 1.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 after alignment. • Variations in emissions persisted for key inputs even after model alignment. Abstract This paper evaluates differences in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn stover ethanol produced in the U.S. Midwest, as estimated by the life cycle-based software GHGenius 4.03a, GREET 2013, and GREET 2015. Life cycle assessments are not typically conducted using more than one software package, but comparisons such as the analysis in this paper provide a critical review of a fuel product system. In particular, differences in the data and assumptions become evident for life cycle stages of the same fuel product when compared between life cycle assessment software packages. Using default settings in the three software packages, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions predictions ranged from 2.75 to 47.8 gCO 2 equivalent per MJ of ethanol (gCO 2 e MJ−1), which presents a difference of as much as 45 gCO 2 e MJ−1. Assumptions regarding nitrogen fertilizer, land management, on/off-site enzyme production, and material/energy inputs included/excluded had substantial effects on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. A consistent corn stover ethanol pathway using equivalent model assumptions and material/energy inputs was developed and implemented in each of the software packages, resulting in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions ranging from 40.7 to 42.0 gCO 2 e MJ−1. The difference in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions was considerably reduced to 1.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 at most between software packages; however, individual emissions sources such as nitrogen fertilizer production, fertilizer application, corn steep liquor, glucose, sodium hydroxide, and biomass electricity still exhibit variation between software packages (e.g., up to 7.3 gCO 2 e MJ−1 E100 for equivalent glucose input), mainly due to different emissions factors data. Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions appeared consistent because emissions sources that vary between software packages offset each other. Differences in greenhouse gas emissions determined for corn stover ethanol point to the need to improve the life cycle modelling and replicability of life cycle studies on this biofuel pathway. Such inconsistencies are relevant in a carbon economy because the same product will have a different value in different jurisdictions as a result of differences in life cycle assessment software packages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Battery-electric trucks (BET) are an alternative to diesel trucks and have the potential for lower life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and total lifetime costs (TCO). This study compares a Class 6 medium-duty BET with a Class 6 medium-duty diesel truck. Vehicle fuel consumption is simulated for Toronto driving conditions, based on different drive cycles, operating temperatures and payloads. The base case results show the BET has lower life cycle GHG emissions and higher lifetime TCO than the diesel truck, but this does not hold across all conditions. GHG emissions of the BET are higher than those of the diesel truck under 100% payload in driving conditions with infrequent stops, while the results are less sensitive to operating temperature. The lifetime cost of the BET can be lower than that of the diesel truck in situations that have driving with frequent stops/starts and with low payloads and low battery and charging station costs. These variables also affect estimated GHG abatement costs, which are highly relevant as carbon pricing is being introduced in the province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite international efforts to increase the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, global gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV-Gs) sales are projected to remain strong for the coming decades, with electric vehicles (EV) sales remaining well below 50% under International Energy Agency projections for 2030. The current study analyzes the cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that can be obtained by 2050 from policies targeting these gasoline powered vehicles. The analysis is applied to the case of the U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDV) fleet, a representative country with a large LDV fleet and slow EV penetration; the work considers technological, decisional and behavioral solutions. Technological pathways include fuel economy improvements, vehicle lightweighting and a greater provision of ethanol blends. Decisional pathways include purchasing decisions related to vehicle size and relative (best-in-class) fuel economy among available models. Behavioral pathways include improvements in driving habits. This study demonstrates the transitional and complementary role to fleet electrification that ICEV-Gs can play to meet climate targets, starting from vehicle models in the market today. A scenario-based analysis confirms that effective and diverse mitigation pathways targeting ICEV-G decarbonisation may lessen the need for aggressive fleet electrification rates – reducing the required cumulative electric vehicle sales through 2050 by at least 10% and by as much as 98% under extreme scenarios in the U.S. The analysis also identifies the limit of the ICEV-G fleet decarbonisation at 40% of cumulative lifecycle emissions from 2021 to 2050 in a very optimistic scenario, suggesting that these measures can complement but not replace the need to develop alternative fuels and powertrains. • Examined GHG mitigation measures targeting gasoline vehicle (ICEV-G) technology • Higher efficiency, hybridization & downsizing help ICEV-Gs meet GHG targets • Such measures can reduce cumulative fleet GHG emissions through 2050 by 5 to 30% • Plausible ICEV-G measures can delay need for full electrification by 5–25 years • Effective policy requires both technological improvements and behavioral changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature analyzing the fuel saving, life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, and ownership cost impacts of lightweighting vehicles with different powertrains is reviewed. Vehicles with lower powertrain efficiencies have higher fuel consumption. Thus, fuel savings from lightweighting internal combustion engine vehicles can be higher than those of hybrid electric and battery electric vehicles. However, the impact of fuel savings on life cycle costs and GHG emissions depends on fuel prices, fuel carbon intensities and fuel storage requirements. Battery electric vehicle fuel savings enable reduction of battery size without sacrificing driving range. This reduces the battery production cost and mass, the latter results in further fuel savings. The carbon intensity of electricity varies widely and is a major source of uncertainty when evaluating the benefits of fuel savings. Hybrid electric vehicles use gasoline more efficiently than internal combustion engine vehicles and do not require large plug-in batteries. Therefore, the benefits of lightweighting depend on the vehicle powertrain. We discuss the value proposition of the use of lightweight materials and alternative powertrains. Future assessments of the benefits of vehicle lightweighting should capture the unique characteristics of emerging vehicle powertrains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines impacts of regional factors affecting biomass and process input supply chains and ongoing technology development on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of ethanol production from corn stover in the U.S. Corn stover supply results in GHG emissions from −6 gCO 2 eq./MJ ethanol (Macon County, Missouri) to 13 gCO 2 eq./MJ ethanol (Hardin County, Iowa), reflecting location-specific soil carbon and N 2 O emissions responses to stover removal. Biorefinery emissions based on the 2011 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) process model are the single greatest emissions source (18 gCO 2 eq./MJ ethanol) and are approximately double those assessed for the 2002 NREL design model, due primarily to the inclusion of GHG-intensive inputs (caustic, ammonia, glucose). Energy demands of on-site enzyme production included in the 2011 design contribute to reducing the electricity co-product and associated emissions credit, which is also dependent on the GHG-intensity of regional electricity supply. Life cycle emissions vary between 1.5 and 22 gCO 2 eq./MJ ethanol (2011 design) depending on production location (98%–77% reduction vs. gasoline). Using system expansion for co-product allocation, ethanol production in studied locations meet the Energy Independence and Security Act emissions requirements for cellulosic biofuels; however, regional factors and on-going technology developments significantly influence these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Automated vehicles can facilitate vehicle sharing within and between households, thus decreasing ownership rates, albeit increasing miles travelled. While electrification can achieve deep reductions in transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, shared automated electric vehicles will have different charging needs considering their higher mileage. In this study, travel survey data collected in Toronto is used to optimize the charging needs of shared automated electric vehicles, with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by choosing charging times that are associated with lower marginal emission factors. Optimized charging schedules reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% relative to vehicles charging once they return home. Life cycle assessment of multiple sharing scenarios indicates that higher levels of sharing increase emissions. Indeed, empty mileage associated with vehicle relocation and higher deterioration lead to a higher fleet turnover. With vehicle sharing, there is a risk of increasing mileage and vehicle production emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is an important social goal to mitigate climate change. A common mitigation paradigm is to consider strategy "wedges" that can be applied to different activities to achieve desired GHG reductions. In this policy analysis piece, we consider a wide range of possible strategies to reduce light-duty vehicle GHG emissions, including fuel and vehicle options, low carbon and renewable power, travel demand management and land use changes. We conclude that no one strategy will be sufficient to meet GHG emissions reduction goals to avoid climate change. However, many of these changes have positive combinatorial effects, so the best strategy is to pursue combinations of transportation GHG reduction strategies to meet reduction goals. Agencies need to broaden their agendas to incorporate such combination in their planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of coal is responsible for 1/5 of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Substitution of coal with biomass fuels is one of a limited set of near-term options to significantly reduce these emissions. We investigate, on a life cycle basis, 100% wood pellet firing and cofiring with coal in two coal generating stations (GS) is Ontario, Canada. GHG and criteria air pollutant emissions are compared with current coal and hypothetical natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) facilities. 100% pellet utilization provides the greatest GHG benefit on a kilowatt-hour basis, reducing emissions by 91% and 78% relative to coal and NGCC systems, respectively. Compared to coal, using 100% pellets reduces NOx emissions by 40-47% and SOx emissions by 76-81%. At $160/metric ton of pellets and $7/GJ natural gas, either cofiring or NGCC provides the most cost-effective GRG mitigation ($70 and $47/metric ton of CO2 equivalent, respectively). The differences in coal price, electricity generation cost, and emissions at the two GS are responsible for the different options being preferred. A sensitivity analysis on fuel costs reveals considerable overlap in results for all options. A lower pellet price (S100/metric ton) results in a mitigation cost of $34/metric ton of CO2 equivalent for 10% cofiring at one of the GS. The study results suggest that biomass utilization in coal GS should be considered for its potential to cost-effectively mitigate GHGs from coal-based electricity in the near term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents three scenarios of urban growth, energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Dar es Salaam using narratives that are consistent with the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). We estimate residential energy demand and GHG emissions from 2015 to 2050 for household activities (including upstream electricity generation) and passenger (road) transport (Scopes 1 and 2). We project that by 2050, Dar es Salaam's total residential emissions would increase from 1,400 ktCO 2 e (in 2015) up to 25,000–33,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP1); 11,000–19,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP2); and 5,700–11,000 ktCO 2 e (SSP3), with ranges corresponding to different assumptions about household size. This correlates with an increase in per capita emissions from 0.2 tCO 2 e in 2015 to 1.5–2 tCO 2 e (SSP1); 0.7–1.3 tCO 2 e (SSP2); and 0.5–0.9 tCO 2 e (SSP3). Higher emissions in SSP1 (the sustainability scenario) are driven by a higher urban population in 2050 and increased energy access and electricity consumption. Through aggressive GHG mitigation policies focused on decarbonization of the electricity sector and road transport, total emissions under SSP1 can be reduced by ∼66% in 2050. Study insights aim to inform policies that identify and capture synergies between low-GHG investments and broader socio-economic development goals in Sub-Saharan African cities. • Provides the first projection of residential energy use and GHG emissions in Dar es Salaam and demonstrates the use of the SSPs at the city scale. • Analyzes the key drivers of residential energy use and GHG emissions in a large SSA city, Dar es Salaam, offering new insights for the region. • Demonstrates a method for projecting emissions in a data-poor environment. • Shows the wide uncertainty in these future projections, while also demonstrating the order of magnitude jump in emissions that can be expected in Dar es Salaam to 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]