Closing the GHG mitigation gap with measures targeting conventional gasoline light-duty vehicles – A scenario-based analysis of the U.S. fleet.

Despite international efforts to increase the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, global gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV-Gs) sales are projected to remain strong for the coming decades, with electric vehicles (EV) sales remaining well below 50% under International Energy Agency projections for 2030. The current study analyzes the cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that can be obtained by 2050 from policies targeting these gasoline powered vehicles. The analysis is applied to the case of the U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDV) fleet, a representative country with a large LDV fleet and slow EV penetration; the work considers technological, decisional and behavioral solutions. Technological pathways include fuel economy improvements, vehicle lightweighting and a greater provision of ethanol blends. Decisional pathways include purchasing decisions related to vehicle size and relative (best-in-class) fuel economy among available models. Behavioral pathways include improvements in driving habits. This study demonstrates the transitional and complementary role to fleet electrification that ICEV-Gs can play to meet climate targets, starting from vehicle models in the market today. A scenario-based analysis confirms that effective and diverse mitigation pathways targeting ICEV-G decarbonisation may lessen the need for aggressive fleet electrification rates – reducing the required cumulative electric vehicle sales through 2050 by at least 10% and by as much as 98% under extreme scenarios in the U.S. The analysis also identifies the limit of the ICEV-G fleet decarbonisation at 40% of cumulative lifecycle emissions from 2021 to 2050 in a very optimistic scenario, suggesting that these measures can complement but not replace the need to develop alternative fuels and powertrains. • Examined GHG mitigation measures targeting gasoline vehicle (ICEV-G) technology • Higher efficiency, hybridization & downsizing help ICEV-Gs meet GHG targets • Such measures can reduce cumulative fleet GHG emissions through 2050 by 5 to 30% • Plausible ICEV-G measures can delay need for full electrification by 5–25 years • Effective policy requires both technological improvements and behavioral changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]